Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More
Time for this week’s mailbag. You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.
Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan
Funny you ask this. I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it." So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.
Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel
I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine. I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative? I don’t like the Livan idea. I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent. Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off. There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.
Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant
The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board. If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.
What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew
I’ll put it at a 10% chance. This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras. He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.
When, just when will this Santana situation be over?! It’s just killing me! – Dan
We all feel your pain Dan. Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this. I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now. Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.
Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin
C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you. If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships. Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy. So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.
Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver
The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official. However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post. The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it. It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer. Those reporters altered history.
What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus? Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler
We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May. There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training. I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.
Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew
Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season. The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense. If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.
Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve
Thankfully I did. I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites. Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.
Rockies Inquired On Santana
Courtesy of Ken Rosenthal, we knew on December 19th that the Rockies had inquired on Dan Haren. On Monday Dave Krieger of the Rocky Mountain News also quoted Rockies’ GM Dan O’Dowd as saying "We stuck our nose in on the Santana thing." (Hat tip to Aaron Gleeman for the link).
O’Dowd didn’t get far trying to acquire Johan Santana, because he prefers to play on the East Coast. Perhaps a deal involving some combination of Franklin Morales, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart, and Dexter Fowler would’ve intrigued the Twins otherwise? Here’s a look at an MLB.com Top 50 Prospects list compiled with votes from 20 members of the scouting community. Morales ranks just a few spots below Jacoby Ellsbury.
Odds and Ends: Manny, Johan, Saarloos
Here are some links I’ve rounded up for today. I like the analogy that the Odds and Ends posts are like a pack of baseball cards. You never know what you’ll get, and sometimes there’s gum.
- UmpBump explains why they expect Manny Ramirez to retire a Red Sox.
- Matthew Cerrone provides some new Johan Santana musings.
- RotoAuthority (which I write) ranks the 78 starting pitchers you should consider in your fantasy baseball mixed league.
- The A’s, admitting they need bodies, will bring Kirk Saarloos back on a minor league invite. He’ll be 29 in May; his claim to fame is winning ten games for the ’05 A’s.
- The Rangers will need to make roster space for Jason Jennings; could Jason Botts be DFA’d?
Mayo On Fernando Martinez and Johan Santana
Jonathan Mayo is a prominent writer on MLB.com, focusing on the minor leagues more recently. Mayo recently wrote a book called Facing Clemens, which "puts you right in the batter’s box against the Rocket Man." Mayo finished the book before the steroid allegations surfaced, but it sounds like an interesting read regardless. I asked Mayo some questions for publication on MLBTR.
MLBTR: Where do you stand on Fernando Martinez? Would the Mets regret trading him and a few other prospects for one year of Johan Santana?
Mayo: There’s always the risk when you trade a young player with so much upside potential that you’ll regret trading him, just like the Astros probably regret leaving Santana unprotected in the Rule 5 draft several years back. But I think that things work a little differently in a market like New York. There’s such pressure to win immediately and there’s the financial ability to fix things via free agency or trading for high-priced players in the future.
I think Martinez has the chance to be a very special player, but it could take several years for him to reach that potential. I’d love to see him become a star in New York, but I think the Mets would have to consider dealing him if they felt that Santana is the piece they need to get over the hump and back to the World Series. Besides, who says it’d be for just one year of Santana. I think that any of the teams who have been rumored to be in the Santana hunt would make a serious run at re-upping Johan for several years after 2008.
Johan Santana Rumors
It’s time for today’s dose of Johan Santana rumors and info. It’s funny – I sense that everyone is getting sick of this stuff and would prefer a fresh rumor about, say, Brad Wilkerson.
- Lisa Kennelly wrote this morning that the Mets appear to be sticking to their guns with an offer of Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra. However, she says the Mets prefer Erik Bedard over Santana since he will not require a huge extension. The New York Times adds that the Mets "are not engaged in heavy discussions with the Twins."
- MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone dives into the situation, summing up recent events and providing some insight from a roundtable that included Ken Rosenthal, Dan Graziano, and Jim Duquette.
- Michael Silverman, with some help from Baseball America, evaluates each reported package of prospects that has been offered for Santana.
- An end may be in sight – the Twins lose leverage if teams truly start to pull out, writes Joe Christensen.
Neal On Santana Staying
La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune was recently named Rumor Royalty for the Twins. As part of the feature, he answered a few questions for MLBTR.
MLBTR: In your estimation what is the percent likelihood that Johan Santana stays with the Twins for all of ’08 and Bill Smith just collects the draft picks? I imagine fans wouldn’t mind seeing Johan and Francisco Liriano paired up one last time.
Neal: I would guess 10 percent – and some people would say that’s too high. The Twins had to deal with Torii Hunter‘s lame duck season last year and, while it would be entertaining to watch Santana work his craft during a walk year, the Twins would be criticized all season for not dealing Santana to get players who could fill holes on the major league roster and boost the minor league system.
Neal On Garza Trade
I recently named La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune as Rumor Royalty for the Twins. He answered a few questions for MLBTR.
MLBTR: Given the loss of Carlos Silva and probable trade of Santana, was it wise for the Twins to send Matt Garza to the Rays?
Neal: The Twins needed to address their offense. They were deficient last season at third base, left field and, on the days Joe Mauer wasn’t available, designated hitter. Scouts from other organizations keep talking about Delmon Young‘s 40-homer potential, and it was nice to hear Brendan Harris say, "everyone has to pull their weight at the dish," on the day of the trade. I’ve covered this team for 10 years and have seen a lot of bad offense.
You can’t blame the Twins for not re-signing Silva, but you wonder why they didn’t trade him during the season when the Phillies and other teams were interested.
Johan Santana Rumors
As usual, MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone sums up the latest on the Johan Santana front. It’s not Cerrone’s fault, but it looks like things are pretty quiet right now. A summary:
- The Mets still appear to be the frontrunner.
- As you might expect, Santana would like this done by month’s end. He’s not stomping his feet and demanding it though.
- And that’s pretty much where we stand…I would like to see this thing take a dramatic turn, maybe a late bid from a random team. But it looks like we’ll keep slugging along.
Neal On Johan Santana Talks
I recently named La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune as Rumor Royalty for the Twins. He answered a few questions for MLBTR, so let’s kick it off.
MLBTR: Are you sick of the Johan Santana saga yet? These talks have been dragging for a month after it seemed like something would get done at the Winter Meetings. Who will cave in – the Twins, Yankees, Mets, or Red Sox?
Neal: Can’t wait for this to end! I think the Twins have sent out signals in recent weeks that they have lowered their demands some in order to get something done. I initially felt that the Red Sox had the best chance to land Santana because I kept hearing how well talks were going. Then I thought the Yankees would step up and make the deal because they have a greater need for a front line starter than Boston. But the Mets have a greater need than the Yankees, and as soon as the Twins indicated that they would accept a deal with the Mets without Jose Reyes being involved the Mets’ chances shot upward.
I don’t blame a team for holding out to get what they want, but Santana will require a hefty contract extension wherever he winds up. A team won’t empty its roster and take on salary. So get what you can and move on.
Rumor Royalty: La Velle E. Neal III (Twins)
As originally described here, Rumor Royalty is an MLBTR series where I name the one journalist for each team who has done the most for us hot stove junkies. If the writer is up for it, I ask that person questions for publication on the site. You can see all of the entries in the series here.
Today we present the honor for the Twins to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. You may also know him by the nickname LEN3, which I first saw on Aaron Gleeman’s site. In addition to filing stories as the Twins’ beat writer, La Velle keeps a blog for the paper. This has become an invaluable resource, especially for Johan updates. La Velle kindly answered three Twins questions for MLBTR, which will be appear over the next few days.