- Twins catcher Mitch Garver caught a bullpen session on Friday. Both Garver and Jake Cave could begin rehab assignments in Triple-A next week, writes MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter).Cave’s return would be particularly notable for the Twins, so long as Kyle Garlick, Rob Refsnyder, and Byron Buxton all remain on the injured list. Rookies Gilberto Celestino and Nick Gordon have been pushed into action in centerfield, where the 28-year-old Cave has seen the majority of his playing time over his four years with Minnesota. Cave started slowly at the dish this season, slashing just .167/.239/.262 in 93 plate appearances before a back injury sent him to the injured list on May 15th. He will be eligible for activation after the All-Star break.
Twins Rumors
The Best Fits For Nelson Cruz
As the Twins’ miserable season has continued, there’s been increasing talk of them operating as a deadline seller over the next three weeks. Nearly every contender will ask about Jose Berrios. There’s been speculation about the availability of Taylor Rogers. Josh Donaldson has been connected to the Mets. Michael Pineda is a pending free agent who could help quite a few rotations.
Over the course of the next few weeks, though, Nelson Cruz will be one of the highest-impact trade candidates to monitor. The seemingly ageless slugger is having yet another excellent season, slashing .299/.372/.553 (147 wRC+) with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz’s 18.8 percent strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2010. He just celebrated his 41st birthday, but he remains one of the game’s top threats at the plate.
Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, playing out the 2021 campaign on a one-year, $13MM contract. As of this writing, there’s about $6MM remaining to be paid out on that pact. By the time the deadline rolls around, Cruz will be owed about $4.5MM for the remainder of the season.
A bat of Cruz’s caliber will surely be in demand, but perhaps not to the extent one would imagine at first glance. As a pure designated hitter, he’ll face a more limited market than most trade candidates.
A National League club could technically acquire Cruz to DH during interleague play and serve as a vastly overqualified pinch-hitter, but it’s unlikely anyone is going to put Cruz in the outfield with any regularity. He hasn’t played an inning of defense since 2018 and has just 54 innings in the field since the conclusion of the 2016 campaign. It’s hard to ever fully rule something out as front offices get increasingly creative, but it seems overwhelmingly likely that if Cruz is moved, it’ll be to an American League club.
Of course, not all 14 American League clubs will be in play. None of the Rangers, Royals, Tigers or Orioles are in contention. The Angels aren’t going to displace Shohei Ohtani from the DH slot, nor will the Astros do so with Yordan Alvarez. The Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton serving as a primary DH. The Red Sox are enjoying the heck out of a resurgent J.D. Martinez campaign. The Indians have Franmil Reyes, and the Twins may not want to ship Cruz to a division rival anyhow.
On that note, it’s worth pointing out that there’s a decent fit with the AL Central-leading White Sox. Yermin Mercedes faded considerably after a torrid start to the season and was optioned to Triple-A this week. But the Sox have Eloy Jimenez on a rehab assignment, and he’s likely to see at least some time at DH as he eases back into the mix after surgery to repair a ruptured pectoral tendon. It’s also generally hard to imagine the Twins trading Cruz to the White Sox in order to help the South Siders seal up a division title for which Minnesota originally hoped to contend.
There are a few clubs that seem like the clearest fits if the Twins move Cruz. Here’s a look at what each of these teams has received from the DH spot in its lineup in 2021, followed by a more thorough look at the potential fit.
- Athletics: .220/.289/.381, 88 wRC+
- Rays: .226/.314/.411, 103 wRC+
- Blue Jays: .240/.321/.429, 104 wRC+
- Mariners: .237/.320/.421, 108 wRC+
Athletics: No contender in the American League could use a DH upgrade more than Oakland. Their offseason signing of Mitch Moreland has resulted in a .238/.286/.388 batting line through 175 plate appearances to date. As a team, the A’s rank 12th in MLB with 394 runs scored — 94 fewer runs than the MLB-leading Astros, whom Oakland happens to be chasing in the division.
The question with the A’s, as always, is one of payroll capacity. For most of this past offseason, it looked as though the A’s wouldn’t spend much of anything on the 2021 roster. Their late signings of Moreland, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit and Trevor Rosenthal boosted payroll up to $86MM — still well below the league average but not quite the threadbare levels seen in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Whether ownership would dish out another several million to rent Cruz for two-plus months remains to be seen, but even if the salary is deemed steep, the A’s could always pay a little more in terms of prospect capital in order to get Minnesota to cover some (or all) of the contract.
Rays: The financial element is perhaps even more notable with the Rays, who are currently operating on just a $62MM payroll. Tampa Bay also has a better in-house option than Oakland in the form of Austin Meadows. The 26-year-old Meadows can and has played some corner outfield this season, but the Rays have more defensively gifted options in Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena and Brett Phillips.
Meadows has been the club’s primary designated hitter this year, logging 53 percent of the the Rays’ total DH plate appearances. On the whole, Meadows has been a productive hitter with a .243/.335/.485 batting line, 16 home runs, 23 doubles and a triple. However, he’s been mired in a down stretch at the plate, batting .231/.300/.374 over the past month. Cruz is an upgrade even over Meadows at his absolute best, but the Rays’ “need” for Cruz feels less acute than that of the Athletics.
Blue Jays: Adding Cruz to a lineup that already features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and Marcus Semien doesn’t really feel fair. Bringing Cruz into the fold would likely push Randal Grichuk back into a fourth outfielder role behind Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. Early in the year, it would’ve been difficult to justify taking at-bats from Grichuk. He got out to a blistering start, batting .289/.322/.497 through the first two months. Since the calendar flipped to June, however, Grichuk is hitting .220/.244/.423 with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate in 127 plate appearances.
The Jays’ priority to this point has been the bullpen, and that will likely continue to be a point of focus for general manager Ross Atkins. That said, it never hurts to further strengthen an already potent lineup. If the prospect price for Cruz is to the Jays’ liking, they’re one of the few AL clubs that is both contending and has an easy path to carve out regular at-bats for the Boomstick. Unlike the A’s and Rays, money shouldn’t be an issue for them.
Mariners: A Cruz reunion tour with an unexpected contender in Seattle would make for a fun story for the final months of the season. Seattle is far from a postseason lock, but the Mariners are four games over .500 and just three and a half games out of a Wild Card spot. Much of the focus surrounding the Mariners has been on whether they’ll trade Mitch Haniger, but if they continue their hot streak — they’re 15-7 over their past 22 games — this is a club that could actually look to add some pieces.
The focus for Seattle would probably be on more controllable players who can help in 2022 and beyond. Starting pitching, in particular, will be the Mariners’ primary desire — as manager Scott Servais suggested this week. But if the Mariners can acquire Cruz without paying a price they feel will compromise a very promising long-term outlook, he’s a sensible upgrade. The move would be overwhelmingly popular with fans, and the Mariners have taken a potpourri approach at designated hitter this year anyhow. Ty France leads the team with an even 100 plate appearances as a DH, but he could be slotted into the lineup regularly at first base/second base for the balance of the 2021 campaign.
Little Current Traction Between Mets, Twins In Donaldson Trade Discussions
JULY 9: There’s currently little traction between the Mets and Twins in discussions regarding either Donaldson or right-hander Jose Berrios, writes Dan Hayes of the Athletic.
JULY 4: While the Mets are expected to pursue upgrades in advance of the deadline, a Donaldson trade is not under consideration at this time, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Martino, however, reiterates that the Mets continue to contemplate a potential Donaldson acquisition.
JULY 2: The Mets are targeting third base upgrades as the deadline approaches, and while many of their fans are likely hoping Kris Bryant becomes available, they’re understandably exploring every avenue. SNY’s Andy Martino writes today that the Mets have approached the Twins and “engaged in very preliminary talks” regarding Josh Donaldson.
As always, it’s worth noting that teams inquire on a wide variety of targets every year at the trade deadline and in the offseason, but preliminary talks don’t necessarily portend serious negotiations. Donaldson is in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract signed in the 2019-20 offseason, so he’d make for an expensive acquisition for the Mets or any other club. As Martino points out, the Donaldson contract would push the Mets beyond the luxury-tax barrier, though owner Steve Cohen hasn’t been shy about his willingness to cross that threshold.
Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez currently has the Mets at about $13.5MM shy of the $210MM luxury barrier. Donaldson’s $23MM annual value — the luxury tax is based on contracts’ average annual value — would bring the Mets about $9.5MM north of the tax line. However, as a first-time offender, their penalty would be rather minimal: a 20-percent tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the barrier, a 32 percent tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5 percent tax on anything thereafter. (Obviously, at this point in the season, it’s overwhelmingly unlikely that the Mets would take on so much salary that they’d cross the barrier by $40MM or more.)
The penalty on Donaldson alone would, in theory, be about $1.9MM. That’s not prohibitive in and of itself, necessarily, and even if the Mets were to make subsequent additions and cross the tax line by, say, $20MM, they’d still only be paying $4MM in penalties. The greater concern could be that under the current system, penalties increase in the second and third consecutive seasons of crossing the tax line. Taking on Donaldson — or any other players who bring them north of the line, Bryant included — would set the Mets up for stiffer penalties in 2022 and perhaps in 2023. Of course, that assumes the current luxury-tax system will remain in place with the next collective bargaining agreement, and with the current CBA set to expire Dec. 1, we can’t know that to be the case.
Turning to the player himself, Donaldson has been somewhat of a lightning rod in recent weeks (and at various other points in his career) for his outspokenness about pitchers’ usage of foreign substances. The slugger called out Yankees ace Gerrit Cole and pointed to his spin-rate drops following the league’s implementation of umpire checks, and he drew the ire of the White Sox and their fanbase for shouting “It’s not sticky anymore!” after belting a home run against Lucas Giolito this week.
Being outspoken is nothing new for Donaldson, of course, nor is the productive stretch in which he currently finds himself. The 35-year-old went down with a hamstring injury in the first game of the season for the Twins, but he’s been healthy since and has been on a tear at the plate for the past month. Donaldson is hitting .250/.345/.486 with 13 home runs overall, but he’s been on absolute fire since Memorial Day weekend, slashing .291/.383/.646 with eight homers and four doubles in his past 94 plate appearances. From a defensive standpoint, he’s not posting the elite marks that he has in recent years, but he’s been about average at the hot corner in the estimation of most metrics (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, -1 Ultimate Zone Rating, +1 Outs Above Average).
Donaldson’s contract pays him $21MM in 2021, 2022 and 2023, and he’s also owed at least the $8MM buyout of a $16MM club option for the 2024 campaign. We’re at the halfway point of the 186-game regular season today, so as of this moment, Donaldson is owed $10.5MM more on this year’s salary. Notably, his contract does include limited no-trade protection, though it’s not yet clear whether the Mets are on that list.
For the Mets, third base has been an issue all season long, due largely to injuries. J.D. Davis opened the year as the top option at the hot corner, and he posted a mammoth .390/.479/.610 slash in 48 plate appearances through his first 14 games. However, Davis is a sub-par defensive option there and drew some criticism for some key miscues (three errors in 94 innings) before going down to a hand/finger injury from which he’s yet to return. Jonathan Villar, Luis Guillorme, Brandon Drury, Jose Peraza, Jeff McNeil and even backup catcher Tomas Nido (for two innings) have all been part of the Mets’ third base carousel this season.
Donaldson would, of course, help to stabilize that roller coaster — provided he can remain healthy. He’s been on the injured list in three of the past four seasons, owing primarily to calf injuries. He did stay healthy for the duration of the 2019 season with the Braves, however, and Donaldson’s early trip to the injured list in 2021 wound up lasting just 11 days.
It’s been a miserable season for the Twins, who opened the year as expected contenders but instead find themselves at 33-46 — fresh off a sweep at the hands of the AL Central-leading White Sox. With the Twins now 14.5 games back from the division lead and 13 games out of an American League Wild Card spot, they look increasingly likely to be deadline sellers. Donaldson’s contract probably makes him too costly for most teams to consider, but the deep-pocketed Mets are at least a plausible suitor in a potential swap.
Twins Reinstate Michael Pineda From Injured List
The Twins have reinstated Michael Pineda from the 10-day injured list, and the right-hander is scheduled to start this afternoon’s game with the White Sox. Righty Griffin Jax was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.
Right elbow inflammation sidelined Pineda back on June 14, though fortunately his elbow issue ended up being relatively minor enough for him to get back to action prior to the All-Star break. (Pineda also had a minimal IL stint in May after a minor procedure to remove an abscess from his thigh.) It also provides time for Pineda to essentially audition for other teams, since the Twins are going to be selling at the trade deadline and Pineda is a free agent after the season.
In terms of bottom-line numbers, Pineda has a solid 3.70 ERA/4.23 SIERA over 56 innings for Minnesota. Pineda has always been good at limiting walks through his career, and his 6.5% walk rate in 2021 is comfortably above the league average. Beyond that, however, there isn’t much to like about Pineda’s Statcast metrics, and his .343 xwOBA is much higher than his .299 xOBA. There are enough teams looking for starting pitchers, however, that Pineda will surely draw interest, and likely some teams will suspect that his overall performance might turn around with a change of scenery.
Mets Exploring Rotation Market, Open To Rentals
As injuries continue to mount on the Mets’ pitching staff — young lefty David Peterson is out up to eight weeks with an oblique strain — acting general manager Zack Scott spoke with reporters about his team’s approach at the trade deadline (links, with video, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and SNY’s Andy Martino). While Scott took a generally open-minded approach, he did acknowledge the opportunity for upgrades in the starting rotation, given the health woes that have plagued the Mets’ staff this year.
“It’s like we’ve gone the reverse of where we were earlier, where we had several position player injuries early,” said Scott. “…I think the same thing could be said, especially for the starting pitchers. There’s uncertainty, so we need to make sure we put our best foot forward there.”
The Mets came to Spring Training with visions of an Opening Day rotation featuring Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker and likely Peterson. In a best-case scenario, rehabbing flamethrower Noah Syndergaard would be back from Tommy John surgery by early summer.
That, of course, hasn’t been the case at all in 2021. Carrasco still hasn’t thrown a pitch thanks to recurring hamstring troubles. The Mets’ current hope is that he’ll return by month’s end, but Carrasco’s timeline has proven to be quite tenuous to this point in the season. Syndergaard, meanwhile, is not expected back until early September. The team’s top depth option, southpaw Joey Lucchesi, will miss the next year-plus due to Tommy John surgery. Right-hander Jordan Yamamoto is on the 60-day IL due to shoulder issues.
Given that context, Scott’s mention of starting pitching upgrades is perfectly sensible. However, Martino reports that the Mets are “reluctant” to move the top-tier talents from their minor league system in trades. That curbs the quality of pitcher the Mets can reasonably hope to acquire. Scott voiced a willingness to acquire rental players, noting that the cost of impending free agents is “most of the time fairly reasonable” due to that lack of club control.
The Mets will surely gauge the price of more controllable arms, but if they’re indeed reluctant to part with their very best prospects, such names will be difficult to obtain. For instance, the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff writes that the Mets have at least gauged the Twins’ asking price on right-hander Jose Berrios but consider it to be “sky-high.” The Mets have also been linked to Minnesota’s Josh Donaldson, so it’s only natural that they’d also see where things stand with Berrios. (Some fans will inevitably speculate about eating the Donaldson contract to get Berrios at a lower prospect cost, but there’d be little sense in the Twins tanking the value of their most appealing trade asset and instead leveraging him to dump the salary of a veteran who is performing quite well.)
A Berrios-caliber arm may be tough for the Mets to line up given their apparent reluctance to deal from the top of the farm, but Scott noted that the brilliant performance of his team’s top three starters also means he doesn’t need to prioritize a top-of-the-rotation arm. “It could be just someone that helps us stabilize things until we get healthier,” he said of a potential rotation acquisition.
Given the performances of deGrom, Stroman and Walker to this point in the season, it’s only natural that the Mets don’t feel pressured to pursue another high-caliber starter. They’ll surely keep themselves informed of the market for such arms. But with deGrom looking once again like the runaway Cy Young favorite and both Stroman (2.59 ERA, 3.64 FIP) and Walker (2.44 ERA, 3.05 FIP) both thriving, there’s an argument that a steady fourth starter — even a rental — is the most logical piece to prioritize for now. Speculatively speaking, available rentals in that mold would include the Twins’ Michael Pineda, the Rockies’ Jon Gray or the Pirates’ Tyler Anderson. D-backs righty Merrill Kelly also fits that general description, and he has an affordable club option for the 2022 campaign as well.
Twins Outright Matt Shoemaker
Twins right-hander Matt Shoemaker has cleared outright waivers and accepted an assignment to Triple-A St. Paul, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic (Twitter link). Minnesota designated him for assignment last week.
The Twins signed Shoemaker to a one-year, $2MM deal over the winter in the hope he’d stabilize the back of the rotation. That’s not how things have played out, though, as Shoemaker has been one of the least effective pitchers in the league this season. The 34-year-old has taken the ball sixteen times (including eleven starts) but the results haven’t been there. Shoemaker has been tagged for an 8.06 ERA/5.37 SIERA across 60 1/3 innings. He has struck out just 14.1% of batters faced — by far the worst mark of his career — and he’s given up fifteen home runs. It’s the second consecutive season in which Shoemaker has given up more than two longballs per nine innings pitched, an untenable mark.
Nevertheless, there’s little harm for the Twins in giving Shoemaker a chance to try to work things out in Triple-A. Prior to 2020, he’d carved out a nice career as a solid back-of-the-rotation arm when healthy. His velocity is still in line with its range from recent seasons. Despite the lack of strikeouts, Shoemaker’s 10.3% swinging strike rate is only a little worse than league average.
As a player with more than six years of major league service, Shoemaker had the right to refuse a minor league assignment while still collecting the remainder of his guaranteed salary. He’s instead decided to stick around in the Twins system and hope to pitch his way back to Target Field before the end of the season.
Twins Sign Joe Harvey
The Twins have signed reliever Joe Harvey to a minor league contract, per an announcement from their Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul. The right-hander elected free agency last weekend after being designated for assignment by the Rockies.
Harvey began his career with the Yankees, making his major league debut with New York in April 2019. The Yankees sent him to the Rockies before that year’s trade deadline, and he appeared in the majors with Colorado between 2019-20. Altogether, Harvey’s tossed 21 1/3 innings at the big league level, pitching to a 4.22 ERA/5.25 SIERA with worse than average strikeout and walk percentages (19.4% and 13.3%, respectively).
The 29-year-old had spent most of this season with the Rockies Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque. He made 15 appearances, working to a 2.63 ERA with a stellar 34.5% strikeout rate but a very high 15.5% walk percentage. Colorado selected Harvey to the big league roster last month, but he was cut loose two days later without having appeared in a game.
Harvey becomes the third notable reliever the Twins have signed to a minor league deal in recent weeks. Minnesota has also added former big leaguers Kyle Barraclough and Nick Vincent in an effort to stockpile some experienced depth. The bullpen has been one of the bigger reasons for the Twins disastrous season, as the relief corps sits 26th in the league with a 4.88 ERA. (Their peripherals are a bit better but still below-average).
The 33-48 Twins are almost certain to sell off some players from the big league roster at this point. Relievers Alex Colomé, Hansel Robles, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar are among the many players the Twins could make available in the next few weeks. Trading one or more of that group could open spots in the majors for some of their recent non-roster additions down the stretch.
Twins Designate Matt Shoemaker For Assignment
The Twins announced this morning that they’ve designated veteran right-hander Matt Shoemaker for assignment and selected the contract of righty Derek Law from Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move.
Shoemaker, 34, tossed a quality start in his Twins debut earlier this year, but it’s been all downhill from there for the most part. The former Angels and Blue Jays righty has been shelled for 53 earned runs in his past 54 1/3 innings and is sitting on an overall 8.06 ERA and 5.38 SIERA with just a 14.1 percent strikeout rate against a 9.5 percent walk rate. The Twins may have had some hope after a move to the bullpen produced moderately better results, but Shoemaker served up eight runs in 2 2/3 frames of mop-up work in last night’s loss.
Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal late in the offseason, Shoemaker was viewed as the likely fifth starter to open the season and a necessary depth addition in a season where workloads were expected to be monitored leaguewide. But his struggles, paired with those of fellow veteran J.A. Happ and fellow back-of-the-rotation option Randy Dobnak, have helped to dig the Twins into a sizable hole. Many of the organization’s top pitching prospects have been hit by injuries in 2021 as well, which pushed the team to continue trying to coax something out of Shoemaker rather than make a move earlier in the year.
The Twins will have a week to trade Shoemaker, pass him through outright waivers or release him. Given his struggles, it’s not reasonable to expect another club having interest in a trade or waiver claim. In all likelihood, today’s DFA will lead to a release. However, given his track record prior to the 2020 season, it’s possible another organization will take a no-risk look at the veteran righty on a minor league deal in hopes that a change of scenery can right the ship. Shoemaker has had myriad injury issues in his career, but he had a nice run with the Halos earlier in his career and, prior to signing in Minnesota, had pitched to a 4.12 ERA in his most recent 166 MLB frames.
As for the 30-year-old Law, he’ll return for a second Twins stint in 2021 in hopes of better results than he produced in his first go-around. Law appeared in five games for the Twins already, yielding six runs on 11 hits and six walks with nine strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings. He’s been a bit better in Triple-A, where he has a 4.61 ERA and 12-to-4 K/BB ratio in 13 2/3 innings. It could be another quick stint for Law, as the Twins called him up in part to get a fresh arm in the ’pen, but he’ll at least have another opportunity to show he can stick on the roster.
Law posted a 2.55 ERA in 55 innings as a rookie with the Giants back in 2016 but has never replicated that success. In 117 2/3 frames since that time, he’s been tagged for a 5.43 ERA with a passable 22.2 percent strikeout rate but an untenable 12.3 percent walk rate.
The Twins Are One Of The Keys To The Trade Deadline
The Twins have looked like sellers for much of the season, but as we’ve seen in recent years, most clubs prefer to wait until closer to the deadline to chart a course. As noted here recently, Minnesota faces almost exclusively AL Central clubs leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. If there was a 2019 Nationals-esque surge in this group, now would be the time to set it in motion.
The Twins started off taking two of three against an Indians club whose rotation is in tatters, but they’ve dropped their first two against the White Sox to fall 13.5 games out of first place in the division. For a team that needs to be nearly flawless over this pivotal stretch of divisional opponents — particularly versus Cleveland and Chicago — dropping three of the first five games isn’t a great start.
Given that this was a team most expected to contend for the Central, at the very least, it’s not at all surprising that there are several players who’d interest contenders. In fact, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in yesterday’s 20 Questions column that the Twins are “the team almost every contender is waiting on.” Minnesota still plays the White Sox eight times, the Tigers a whopping 11 times and the Royals three times before the trade deadline, so maybe they can pull off the macro version of last night’s staggering Angels comeback, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that this goes the direction most onlookers have expected for awhile now.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the Twins could do as the deadline draws nearer…
The Rentals
Michael Pineda, RHP ($10MM salary): Pineda is currently on the shelf with inflammation in his right elbow. He’s been out since June 14, but he’s slated for a rehab start in Triple-A today. Assuming there are no setbacks, Pineda would be one of the most attractive options on the rental market. He’s an established mid-rotation arm who has performed well with the Twins when he’s been able to take the mound (3.86 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 228 2/3 innings over 42 starts). Pineda did get hit with a PED suspension in 2019, although it was one of the rare instances where the league seems to have believed some of his plea of innocence, as MLB reduced his ban from 80 to 60 games. Many undoubtedly recall Pineda’s pine tar-covered hat in his Yankees days and will wonder about him in connection to the current crackdown on foreign substances. On that note, it’s worth pointing out that his spin rates were below-average in the first place and had actually decreased since signing with the Twins. We can’t know anything for sure, of course, but on paper he doesn’t look like your typical “Spider Tack” case.
Nelson Cruz, DH ($13MM): Happy 41st birthday, Nelson! The Boomstick is still swinging it as well as ever, slashing .307/.378/.585 with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz has been 57 percent better than a league-average hitter, per wRC+, and he’s cut his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in his first two years with Minnesota down to 19.1 percent in 2021. His market will be limited to AL clubs unless some NL GM really, really wants an interleague/World Series DH and an occasional pinch-hitter. (We’ve all learned never to rule anything out with A.J. Preller by now.) AL contenders who could use an upgrade at DH include the A’s, Blue Jays, Rays and White Sox. Of course, Cruz’s salary may be steep for the A’s and Rays, and it’s hard to imagine the Twins shipping Cruz to their top division rival.
Andrelton Simmons, SS ($10MM): Simmons hasn’t been great with the bat in Minnesota — .245/.316/.328, 81 wRC+ — but the defense looks sharp. Simmons’ defensive metrics took a tumble in both 2019 and 2020 after he suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain and then re-sprained that ankle a second time. In 2021, he’s third among all players, regardless of position, with 12 Outs Above Average, per Statcast. He’s also notched a plus-2 mark in Defensive Runs Saved after registering minus-2 in that regard in just 265 innings last summer. The ankle appears healthy, and his range has seemingly improved as a result. If you want to upgrade your infield defense, they don’t come much better than this.
Alex Colome, RHP ($6.25MM): Colome was the Twins’ biggest offseason pickup in the bullpen, but the outstanding fortune he had on balls in play with the White Sox went up in smoke in 2021. Teams were surely wary of Colome’s .211 average on balls in play over the past two seasons with the ChiSox, which quite likely why the Twins were able to wait him out and get him for just a year and $6.25MM. Colome immediately stumbled out of the gates in Minnesota, blowing a game in his first appearance and floundering through a poor overall showing in April. He’s posted a respectable 3.60 ERA with a huge 58.1 percent grounder rate in 20 innings since, but he doesn’t look anywhere near as impressive as he did for the South Siders. Presumably, the asking price here wouldn’t be too high.
Hansel Robles, RHP ($2MM): Robles’ numbers would’ve looked better had this breakdown been written before his past two appearances, when he’s been tagged for four runs in two innings. But the right-hander is still sporting a 3.63 ERA and 48.3 percent ground-ball rate — albeit with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and a bloated 13.6 percent walk rate. He’s also experienced a rebound in fastball velocity after a dip in 2020, and he’s on a cheap enough contract that a contending club with luxury tax concerns might be particularly intrigued.
J.A. Happ, LHP ($8MM): Happ got out to a decent start in 2021, but he’s been shelled for most of his past nine appearances. His best performance in that stretch was his most recent, when he held Cleveland to a pair of runs on six hits and no walks with seven punchouts in six innings. If he can string together a few more nice outings like that, maybe some club would pick him up for a negligible return (i.e. partial salary relief) to try to stabilize the back of its rotation.
More Controllable Possibilities
Jose Berrios, RHP ($6.1MM, controllable through 2022): If the Twins were to make Berrios available, he might be the most coveted name on the market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that the Cardinals have inquired and, unsurprisingly, found the asking price to be quite high. Still, Passan writes that a growing number of executives around the game expect the Twins to be willing to seriously consider a trade. That’s likely indicative of the level of interest in Berrios, as the Twins don’t seem likely to embark on a total rebuild even if they do sell. They’d likely seek young controllable, big-league ready talent in a trade of Berrios, who boasts a 3.41 ERA and matching 3.40 FIP with a career-best 26.5 percent strikeout rate and a 6.4 percent walk rate (the second-lowest of his career). His current salary is eminently affordable, and even with an aggressive raise in arbitration, he’d still be a bargain next year. Any contending club would love to have Berrios — it’s just a matter of how strong the offers are and whether the Twins are willing to compromise their 2022 roster by trading the best pitcher they’ve developed in the past decade.
Taylor Rogers, LHP ($6MM, controllable through 2022): Rogers has put a shaky (by his standards) 2020 season behind him. Through his first 32 innings, he’s sitting on a 2.53 ERA that’s actually higher than his FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Rogers’ 32.6 percent strikeout rate is back in line with his 2019 level, and this year’s 3.9 percent walk rate is the best of his career. He has the fifth-best chase rate of any qualified reliever in MLB. As with Berrios, Rogers could play a key role for the 2022 Twins, so the offer would need to be strong. But relievers with this combination of swing-and-miss ability and command — particularly lefties — are tough to come by, so the demand will be sizable. This is also a Twins front office that generally hasn’t been keen on committing too much to any individual reliever, and Rogers’ final arbitration raise will push his salary into the $8-9MM range. A trade to a contender is very plausible. (As an aside, it’d be quite the fun story to see twin brothers co-closing games for a contending club. We’re all looking at you, Giants.)
Tyler Duffey, RHP ($2.2MM, controllable through 2022): Duffey hasn’t been the dominant setup man he was in 2019-20, but he’s controlled another season on a cheap salary and has still been effective in 2021. There’s no sugar-coating that his strikeout and walk rates from 2019-20 have dropped from 34.2 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, to 22 percent and 12.6 percent in 2021. He’s improved both a bit over his past 15 outings, though, and only allowed two runs in that time. Overall, he has a 3.52 ERA and 3.84 FIP in 30 2/3 innings. As with Robles, if you’re a contending team with luxury tax concerns, taking a chance on a cheap reliever with a bigger track record probably has some appeal.
Caleb Thielbar, LHP ($700K, controllable through 2024): A Minnesota native and feel-good comeback story from 2020, Thielbar can be controlled another three years beyond the current campaign. That might make dealing him counterintuitive should the Twins be looking for a quick turnaround after a theoretical summer sale, but Thielbar will turn 35 this offseason and relievers are volatile in the first place. The Twins brought him back from indie ball last year, so there’s a “playing with house money” element to marketing him. He’s pitched 50 1/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate since returning last summer. Fielding-independent metrics largely support the ERA. With multiple contenders sitting right on the luxury-tax precipice, Thielbar could be an under-the-radar but highly attractive chip for the Twins.
Longer Shots
Like Berrios, Rogers and Duffey, Byron Buxton is controlled only through the 2022 season. However, Buxton is on the injured list after an errant fastball fractured his left hand in a recent at-bat, and it’s nearly impossible to envision the Twins moving their most talented player at such a low point. The durability concerns with Buxton are understandable, and his repeated absences in 2021 have been a major factor in the Twins’ current predicament, but trading him doesn’t feel realistic.
It’s a similar story with righty Kenta Maeda, who has been hit hard this season and spent time on the injured list with an adductor strain. The Twins control him into 2023, and even if his struggles as a starter continue, his $3.25MM base salary is plenty reasonable if he’s in a bullpen or hybrid role. He doesn’t need to be the ace-caliber arm he was in 2020 to justify his contract, and the flexibility he provides the Twins moving forward carries more value than what they’d receive by selling low in a trade.
Right fielder Max Kepler and second baseman Jorge Polanco would no doubt attract interest thanks to their long-term deals, but Kepler is in the midst of his own down season and controlled affordably all the way through 2024. Polanco had a dismal three-week slump to open the year but has hit quite well (.275/.345/.483) since that time. He’s signed through 2025, so there’s little reason for the Twins to consider anything there.
Josh Donaldson is hitting .299/.382/.662 over the past month and has homered in three straight games, but he’s also 35 years old and only in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract that affords him limited no-trade protection. It’s tough to see something coming together with all the money still owed to him.
The Twins might welcome a taker for strikeout-plagued slugger Miguel Sano, who is hitting .195/.280/.435 this season with a 37 percent punchout rate. But Sano is making $11MM this year, $9.25MM in 2022, and is also owed a $2.75MM buyout on a $14MM option for the 2023 season.
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With a deep reserve of enticing position prospects, headlined by current big leaguers Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, plus several key pieces under long-term control and plenty of payroll space this winter, the Twins shouldn’t be expected to completely tear the roster down. It’d make sense to target some controllable arms, however, as they’ve dealt with injuries to several of their top pitching prospects in 2021 (Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino among them).
At the end of the day, the Twins might prefer to hold out a bit longer before waving the proverbial white flag, but they’d need a historic rally to overcome a 13.5-game deficit in the division or a 12.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race at this point in the season. It increasingly feels like a matter of time before they start moving some short-term veterans, with the greater question being how aggressively they’ll sell rather than whether they’ll sell at all.
Twins Asking Price High On Berrios
- The Cardinals are doing their best to patch together a rotation in the wake of Jack Flaherty’s extended absence, but they’re also exploring their options outside the organization. They have reached out to the Twins about Jose Berrios and the Rangers for Kyle Gibson, but the price for Berrios was “high,” and presumably, the same will be true of Gibson, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. With very few difference-making arms likely to be available, Berrios and Gibson are sure to be in high demand. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak spoke of the Cardinals’ desire to win, but “not at the cost of our future.” While that’s a reasonable mode of thinking, such a mind-set isn’t likely to procure an arm like Berrios or Gibson.
