This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' deadline approach, the lefty relief market, offseason ideas for the Rangers, the Mariners trading Julio Rodriguez, who the Yankees could give up in trades, Bo Bichette's future, and much more.
Rich asks:
With two bad performances by starting pitchers, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, will the Cardinals seek a trade for at least one veteran starting pitcher?
Sam asks:
Bernie Miklasz who seems pretty well sourced was talking about the Cardinals potentially trading Nootbaar. If they do that, what sort of return would the Cardinals get? His results are not good but his statcast data is great.
At the time of this writing, the Cardinals are 1.5 games out in the wild card with a 33.5% chance at the playoffs.
The first question reminds me a bit of the 2021 season, when John Mozeliak's Cardinals reached deadline day as a .500 club with just a 2-3% chance at the playoffs. The club picked up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ at the deadline, with Mozeliak saying, "We wanted to try to do it in a way that we wouldn't be giving up a lot of future talent; that was something that was sort of critical in our decision-making. Needless to say, today we felt like we took a couple steps forward without having to sacrifice our future."
The 2021 team went 39-21 from July 30th onward before losing the (lone) NL Wild Card game against the Dodgers. Lester and Happ gave the Cardinals exactly what they wanted: innings. Innings are generally what Mikolas and Fedde provide, having combined for 349 of them last year. Sonny Gray has been excellent, while Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante have been solid.
Mikolas and Fedde do deserve ERAs around 5.00, and there's logic to seeking an upgrade - either one controllable beyond this year, or one in the Lester/Happ mold who doesn't cost much. In my recent Cubs Trade Deadline Outlook, I named just about every potentially available starting pitcher I could think of, though Steve Adams suggested I add Drew Rasmussen. The Cardinals have a very real shot at reaching the playoffs this year - perhaps more than they expected coming into the season - and I do think they should add a starter.
In an article Monday, Katie Woo of The Athletic noted that Fedde may not take his next turn in the rotation, and Mikolas shouldn't feel comfortable either. Michael McGreevy is the next man up. The 25-year-old has excelled in Triple-A and can probably do better than Fedde.
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Seriously. What does anybody have to offer the Rays that would be worth dumping Cleavenger. “The Rays are the Rays….
Yeah, and they’re not suckers.
Sheesh.
Who said dumping? The Rays are the Rays because they’re willing to trade controllable players.
I don’t really understand what you’re saying…that Cleavinger is so valuable that there is no trade offer the Rays could or should entertain?
The Rays acquired Cleavinger for basically nothing. Given the volatility of relievers and the team’s ability to cultivate good ones, considering offers at peak value is the logical thing to do.
Rays deal relievers. They just do. And they will again.
Align – Maybe Stu tries to win this year, since it likely won’t be his team next year?
The Cardinals in 2025 remind me of last years team not 2021. They have almost the same players and record. McGreevy is taking someone’s place in the rotation soon. I could see a deal for someone like Gallen or Alcantara both former Cardinals. They need upside because they are a long shot to be a legit WS contender. As for Nootbaar why would he be dealt? Outfield is a need even with him in the fold. Guys that could be traded would be Crooks or Walker. Fedde and Mikolas might simply be released.
They have upside in the rotation with Gray, Liberatore, and arguably even McGreevy. If they do trade for a starter, they’re not going to sell the farm during what is supposed to be a transitional year.
They need more upside to compete with the best of the best in baseball.
Nobody suggested selling the farm. Walker wouldn’t be missed and Crooks is about to be passed by Bernal.
Page’s defense is average and he will struggle the rest of the way to hit .200.
Catcher has underperformed
The team has 3 catchers and Bernal will be ready mid 2026. Crooks is not needed.
Out of all the starting catchers Pages is in the bottom 25 percent
No not really. And he isn’t a regular starter he just is for now because Herrera is hurt. Bernal will be the starter by mid 2026.
Gray and Liberatore CAN compete with the best teams. Along with Pallante and McGreevy or Matz, they don’t necessarily need more than that to beat the best teams in somewhat crapshoot playoff series.
They had weaker starting rotations than that when they won it all in 2006 and arguably in 2011 as well. In 2009, they had arguably the best 1-2-3 starters they’ve ever had in the 21st Century, yet they got swept in 3 games in the NLDS.
With Herrera playing mostly at DH, Pages is indeed the primary starting catcher this year. He doesn’t hit much, but the Cardinals apparently like his defense and game calling well enough.
Although, I agree that he’s not that good of a catcher to keep the job once Crooks and/or Bernal is ready.
Fedde, mikolas and pallante are 3 game skid on cruise control.
Take Mo’s cell phone away and we’ll see you next year.
Fedde is better than his ERA indicates. He’s had quite a few quality starts. It’s just that he’s also had some really bad starts as well with very few in the area between good and bad. However, he still gets the job done more times than not.
Now Mikolas could be DFAed, but in that case, the Cardinals would just put McGreevy permanently in the rotation in his place. They also have Matz in the bullpen who could swap out with Mikolas (or Fedde) if necessary.
Anyway, the Cardinals don’t really need to be looking to trade for a starting pitcher. The bigger need is in the bullpen.
A guy like Gallen would be huge as far as having a competitive playoff rotation goes. Another pen arm would help too. And a righty outfielder who can play center if Hampson doesn’t show much the next couple weeks.
Cards ain’t going to the playoffs or getting starting pitching for the bum Walker.
Yes and they cannot hit any lefties
Hampson is bad
A playoff rotation of Gray, Liberatore, Pallante, and McGreevy would already be nicely competitive.
I do agree that a bullpen arm and a righty platoon CF would be helpful.
Pallante is great, every other start.
Maybe 🤔 f we had a real pitching coach call his pitches he would not be so wild
Love Julio as a player. I don’t think we should even consider trading him. Whether the contract option gets picked up or not is a whole other question.
Idk why he is struggling so much at the plate. The lineup is always so bad the pressure was too much from day 1. His ABs arent terrible anymore but he hits way too many ground balls. Theres usually a month or so every season where hes a monster.
Hope he can turn it around and be a M’s career guy. Great personality and so much fun when he’s right.
I’m pretty confident the discussion on “the M’s trading Julio” is purely based on reactions to all the make believe hypothetical trade deadline packages. The Julio discussion is a reaction to all of the “what-if?” scenarios that are sprouting up everywhere like bamboo. Like you, I also have a hard time believing the Org will trade such a valuable player at 24 yrs old. Frankly I think they’d be mad to do so.
I’m sure you’ve seen or heard of the articles by Joel Sherman and David Schoenfield that include suggestions that SEA take advantage of ATL’s bad record by trying to go after a high profile target like Acuña. Tis the silly season after all
Since when are Nootbaar’s results not good? Despite his low batting average, he’s still running a 104 wRC+ with around average defense.
104 WRC+ is basically league average. Thats not good, it’s average or 4% above avg. He’s always been 15-20% above avg previously. That puts him 10-15% below where he’s normally at relative to the league.
A league average bat and average (at best) defense is dime a dozen.
Average is good. Average starting caliber big league left fielder is good. It’s definitely not dime a dozen.
Average LF is literally the most replaceable asset on the diamond. If you aren’t getting power or other significant contributions (excellent defense, base running, OBP, etc.) from a league average LF’er there is zero value in keeping them there.
100%. He’s a 0-2 WAR player maximum if this is the bat now. Teams can get that from a AAAA prospect or bench bat.
Replacement level is replaceable. Average is not. You don’t seem to understand what you are saying.
He’s a 2 win player in a down year. He’s a 2-4 win player. Again both of you have no idea what you are talking about.
I think the prevailing thought is putting Nootbaar in a better lineup with more protection will unlock the potential that he has flashed on a regular basis.
Agree but the left fielder should be Donnie
Nootbaar can play right. And Donovan can play all over.
What do you think the Tiger’s will do at the trade deadline??
Should the Tigers put all of their chips on the table at the trade deadline with next season potentially being the last time we may see Tarilk subal in a Tigers uniform????
Yes i think they should. They have the prospects to go get just about anyone. I think the window is this year and next with Skubal. I think they gotta go all in for these 2 years.
Have to, you never know what can happen next year. Cubs weren’t planning on 2016 being their year to go for it, but it came earlier than expected and Theo was smart to push the chips in b/c the core fell apart shortly after winning (also shredded the farm to get to the WS). But so many things have gone right for the Tigers, you cannot expect a similar performance from Skubal next year, or Javy to continue to provide excellent value, McKinstry playing out of his mind after barely being able to crack the 26 man for the past 5 years. All of that is to say, as good as the Tigers have been not acting aggressively at the TD would be foolish.
No way the Mariners will unload Julio, that’s a poison pill for the franchise for future prospects who might look to sign long term to similar deals. Makes terrible optics, shows a total disregard for loyalty. At the time, Julio signed for cheap-and it can still play out that way. Julio will figure it out, he is still a very young player with a lot of tools. He needs a supporting cast to take some pressure off his mind, that and some tweaks to help him get under the ball to hit it into the air. Hard to make those types of adjustments on the fly in the middle of a season. No, he isn’t a superstar-but there are tons of very talented players who struggled far worse than he has who turned their careers around with half his talent.
Cal Raleigh is doing extremely well without “a supporting cast”. I hope that doesn’t destroy your narrative.
The biggest problem IMO is OPs other narrative which your snarky comment chose to ignore: Julio needs a swing adjustment to lift the ball. He still has elite bat and foot speed but he hits almost everything on the ground.
The Mariners wrecked his swing two years ago trying to teach the entire team to strike out less and hit for contact. If he can lift the ball again the outcomes will improve drastically.
And he has horrible pitch selection… like the worst. So if we can change his swing and get him swinging at strikes, there might be something there.
maybe – Signed for cheap?
After playing in only 108 games he got guaranteed $209M.
He’s already making over $20M this season when he would have been making minimum salary as pre-arb.
Maybe he’ll turn it around like Baez did, but if he doesn’t his contract will hamstring the M’s for another 9 years.
Not going to the playoffs because we cannot hit against left handers period
Manfred’s reported strategy to appeal to the lesser paid players is just another example in the long history of the rich and powerful striving to divide and conquer the classes they want to control. Unfortunately, it often works.