2021 Season Expected To Start On Time
In the time of COVID-19, no schedule is complete without caveats to consult and confirm with health officials. Cases of coronavirus may surge further, breakouts and hot spots remain possible even as vaccines begin to make their way into circulation. And despite ubiquitous uncertainty, as well as owners advocating for delay, it appears the 2021 season will start on time, per The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. MLB and the MLBPA have each announced their intentions to stick to the CBA and provide regularly-scheduled kick-offs for spring training and opening day.
The presumption has been that any potential delay would come from the urging of the league office, but Drellich provides this statement from MLB, “We have announced the dates for the start of Spring Training and the Championship Season. As we get closer we will, in consultation with public health authorities, our medical experts, and the Players Association, determine whether any modifications should be considered in light of the current surge in COVID-19 cases and the challenges we faced in 2020 completing a 60-game season in a sport that plays every day.”
Owners would prefer to delay the start of the season in order to get more people vaccinated and generally provide a safer playing environment. But they also want to limit the number of games played without fans in attendance. With the CBA in place, however, MLB has little recourse but to start the season on time. Considering the success of the NFL and NBA to operate under the present circumstances, it would likely take a significant degradation of our present circumstances to seriously derail the season.
This is good news for the players, who have continually advocated for a full 162-game season. The logistics of said season remain as complicated as ever, and the schedule itself is likely to be a dynamic document. Still, it does seem likelier than ever that there will be a full season in 2021.
Quick Hits: Cubs, Hoerner, Opening Day, Home Run Leaders By State
Nico Hoerner earned a Gold Glove nomination after notching five Defensive Runs Saved in just over 200 innings at the keystone in 2020, but his versatility will make him more than a bit player for the Cubs moving forward. Thanks to his plus glovework, the 23-year-old was worth 0.7 bWAR in 2020 despite slashing .222/.312/.259. His defensive prowess will keep his name on the lineup card while his bat works to catch up, writes Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hoerner played five positions including centerfield – the Cubs’ most glaring long-and-short-term hole. Ian Happ was the bulk starter in center in 2020, but he could move to left now that Kyle Schwarber was non-tendered. The Cubs are likely to add at least another name to their outfield mix, but don’t be surprised to see Hoerner continue to get looks there in the spring while competing with David Bote for regular second base reps.
As we look forward to the new year, let’s see what else is happening around the sport…
- With two COVID-19 vaccines now on the market, owners are considering a push to delay the season opener until May. In their minds, a significant enough number in vaccinations could justify the delay, writes Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Players have thus far resisted any attempts to push back the start of the season, however. The MLBPA wants a 162-game season rather than face another year of prorated pay. With coronavirus cases still on the rise, however, it’s prudent for MLB to take whatever precautions necessary to limit the risk of breakouts in 2021.
- MLB.com’s Director of Research and Development Daren Willman put together a fun chart to peruse this holiday season (via Twitter). Williams posted the current home run leaders by birth state, and there are definitely some places for a young go-getter to take their local crown. Maine, Alaska, and New Hampshire each have career leaders with less than 100 home runs, while Duke Sims landed exactly at the century mark to leader all Utahans. Paul Goldschmidt (Delaware), Bryce Harper (Nevada), Kurt Suzuki (Hawaii), Mike Trout (New Jersey), and Ryan Zimmerman (North Carolina) could add to their leads in 2021, while the recently-retired Alex Gordon ended his career as Nebraska’s all-time home run king. Executive Director of the MLBPA Tony Clark also makes the list as Kansas’ all-time leader.
MLB Payrolls Dropped A Collective $2.47 Billion In 2020
Per the latest report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, payrolls across MLB fell from $4.22 billion in 2019 to $1.75 billion during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The Dodgers’ $98.6MM payroll, Blum notes, clocked in as the highest mark among the game’s 30 teams. The Yankees finished second with a payroll of $86.3MM.
Of course, the 60-game season meant prorating pay, dropping player salaries by approximately 63% from the full-scale amount. The totals given here mark a roughly 59% year-over-year decrease, suggesting payrolls would have increased had there been a full season. 2018 brought the first year-over-year decrease in payroll since 2010, as Blum reported at the time.
One complicating factor was a rise in buyout options. As Blum writes, “Buyouts of unexercised 2021 options came to $58.2 million, more than double the $26.9 million for buyouts of unexercised 2020 options, a sign of expense-cutting amid the revenue loss.” That’s not a surprise, given the sudden change in expected revenues without fans present, but it is noteworthy.
Parsing owners’ financial positions after this season’s revenue losses will continue to be a topic of discussion as free agency moves forward at its glacial pace. Without transparency from owners, the exact losses are difficult to ascertain. These numbers – presuming their accuracy – do serve as a significant data point, however.
The question of finances has been and will continue to be one of the sticking points between MLB and the MLBPA as the two sides near the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement. Transparency has been at the center of the debate, as owners have resisted the call from players to make their finances public. The Braves, as a publicly traded company, are the only team whose finances are made public in the form of quarterly reports, as Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards reviewed in early December. Of course, only so much can be gleaned from a single team’s financial numbers.
Quick Hits: Tigers, Pirates, Royals
The Tigers have added former outfielder Jose Cruz Jr. to their major league coaching staff, the team announced. He’ll “focus on hitting instruction,” according to the Tigers. While the Tigers didn’t name an exact role for Cruz, it appears he will be their assistant hitting coach to Scott Coolbaugh, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com observes. Cruz spent 1997-2008 with a handful of different major league teams and clubbed 204 home runs. He has since worked for the MLBPA and as an ESPN analyst. He’s now part of the same organization as his son, infielder Trei Cruz, whom the Tigers drafted in the third round last summer.
- The Pirates announced a number of additions to their baseball operations staff via a press release. Pittsburgh hired Rafael Freitas as their new Major League Head Athletic Trainer, Terence Brannic as Head Major League Strength & Conditioning Coach, Adam Vish as a Strength & Conditioning Coach, and Seth Steinhauer joins the Major League staff as Physical Therapist after sour seasons as the Pirates’ minor league rehab coordinator. Josh Hopper heads to Pittsburgh from the college ranks as the Coordinator of Pitching Development. Hopper spent the last three seasons as pitching coach at Dallas Baptist University after nine seasons in the same role with the University of Alabama at Birmingham.
- The Royals don’t have any staff additions to announce, but they are adding a new video board that will cover the Hall of Fame wall in left field, writes Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star (via Twitter). The team has released a series of tweets here, and here, showing the construction project getting underway. The new board will be the tallest HDR video board in baseball with 5.1 million total pixels.
Latest From Tony Clark On MLBPA, MLB Negotiations
Despite the antagonistic tone of the negotiations that spilled so frequently into the public square last winter, the MLBPA is hopeful that the sequel this winter will strike a more amicable (and private) tone, per the Athletic’s Evan Drellich.
At the same time, Drellich provides interesting comments from executive director of the MLBPA Tony Clark, who spoke harshly of last winter’s mediation in saying, “In essence, going back to March, what manifested itself thereafter, we view largely as a lockout. There are lines that can be drawn between what happened this year and what may have happened historically. But I continue to remain optimistic that as a result of that experience, we have an opportunity and take advantage of the opportunity, to work through our respective disagreements to the benefit of the game moving forward.”
It’s unclear what to glean from Clark’s retroactively labeling the coronavirus shutdown as a work stoppage, but if nothing else, his point highlights the severity of those negotiations. It also puts in no uncertain terms the length the players are willing to go in order to have their needs met.
Clark says the players are open to any conversation this winter, broadly speaking, but he also made a point to note the MLBPA’s general skepticism about the financial numbers being put forth by MLB in regards to their operating losses from 2020. The owners’ use of the word ‘debt,’ for example, Clark explains as an evocation that misconstrues the true function of debt for businesses the size of MLB.
Issues like the universal designated hitter and extra-innings rules appear on the back-burner priority-wise for the MLBPA. One might expect a less steadfast approach from players in those areas. The MLBPA won’t be as flexible on issues of player pay. Players expect a battle in securing a full 162-game season in 2021, especially if fan attendance remains a non-guarantee. The owners will want the players to take some part in the financial risk of putting on a season when fans may not be allowed to attend, but the players don’t appear willing to bear that burden unless provided with more substantive proof of the operating losses suffered by MLB and the owners.
Until some of the numbers being put forth by MLB can be verified in some form or fashion, the owners’ financial concerns are likely to fall on deaf ears. MLB has been hesitant to provide more detailed financials to the players, however. This saga is likely to continue well into the winter, much as it did prior to the truncated 2020 season.
MLBPA Announces 2020 Players Choice Award Winners
The MLBPA announced their Players Choice Awards today, which were voted on by the players prior to the postseason. Freddie Freeman was the biggest winner, taking home both the NL Player of the Year honor, as well as the NL Outstanding Player Award, which correlates to the MVP. Jose Abreu of the White Sox took home the AL MVP equivalent award. Nelson Cruz was awarded the Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award in the American League, while Andrew Dawson won the inaugural Curt Flood Award, given to “a former player, living or deceased, who in the image of Flood demonstrated a selfless, longtime devotion to the Players Association and advancement of Players’ rights.”
Feel free to read their official press release here, and check out the other award winners as voted on by the players below:
AL Outstanding Pitcher: Shane Bieber
NL Outstanding Pitcher: Trevor Bauer
The Outstanding Pitcher award in each league – or the Cy Young equivalent – went to Trevor Bauer of the Reds and Shane Bieber of the Indians. Bieber was a shoo-in as the best pitcher in the American League, but Bauer faced some tough competition in the NL from Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish.
AL Outstanding Rookie: Kyle Lewis
NL Outstanding Rookie: Jake Cronenworth
Lewis broke out as a star for the Mariners, an important development for him, of course, but also for the Mariners and their rebuild. Lewis hit .262/.364/.437 with 11 home runs and highlight-reel defensive work in centerfield. The 26-year-old Cronenworth came to San Diego as an unheralded pickup from the Rays, but the two-way player focused on his offense in 2020, got regular reps at second base, and emerged as a star. Cronenworth hit .285/.354/.477 in 192 plate appearances while completing the Padres infield picture.
AL Comeback Player: Carlos Carrasco
NL Comeback Player: Daniel Bard
These are both tremendous stories. Carrasco was treated for leukemia last season before returning at the end of the year. This season he returned to his prior form, going 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA/3.59 FIP across 68 innings. Bard, meanwhile, hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2013, retiring in 2017. He discovered renewed velocity while coaching, then came back to become the Rockies’ closer by the end of 2020. He made 23 appearances with a 3.65 ERA/3.64 FIP with 6 saves. Many have tried and failed to provide steady relief in Colorado, so for Bard to come back where he did is particularly impressive.
The traditional awards that we tend to reference throughout the years are released by the Baseball Writer’s Association of America. They announced their reveal dates today as well: November 11th for the Cy Young and November 12th for MVP.
MLB Playoff Field Expands To 16 Teams For 2020 Season
6:58pm: MLB has officially announced the 16-team playoff format and best-of-three Wild Card Series for 2020.
4:36pm: The league’s owners have ratified the agreement, Sherman tweets. Sixteen teams will make the playoffs this season.
3:27pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that the top two teams in each division will qualify for the postseason under this format. The seventh and eighth teams in each league will be chosen based on the best overall records of the remaining teams. The Athletic’s Jayson Stark adds that all three first-round games of a series would be played at the higher seed’s home park, thus eliminating the need for a travel day.
3:00pm: Just hours before the first pitch of the 2020 season, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have reached an agreement on an expanded postseason field. ESPN’s Marly Rivera reports that the union has agreed to the proposal, which now needs only to be ratified by the owners. Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests that will indeed happen (Twitter link), and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that there’ll be 16 teams as well as a best-of-three first round series (rather than a sudden-death Wild Card setting). The agreement covers only the 2020 season, per both Rivera and Sherman.
The postseason expansion comes with a $50MM player pool for the players, Nightengale further reports. That’s particularly notable given that in a traditional season, player postseason shares are derived solely from gate revenue and not from television ratings. Previous estimates on additional television revenue in an expanded postseason field suggested between $200-300MM could be generated by expanding to 16 teams, and ownership has agreed to share some of that windfall with the players’ side.
The potential ramifications here are broad reaching. It’s easy to envision this serving as a litmus test of sorts for future postseason expansion. The league has previously sought to push to 14 to 16 teams due to that considerable added revenue — the aforementioned revenue boost referenced only television money — and introducing it as a sort of experiment in an already anomalous season is perhaps a more palatable way of normalizing the change.
From a team vantage point, the impact this has on the trade deadline could be enormous. There have been plenty of questions regarding just how much clubs will be willing to surrender in order to acquire rental players in a 60-game season — particularly if the likeliest postseason scenario included a sudden-death Wild Card game. Now, clubs will at least be assured of a three-game series. Paired with the expanded number of fringe contenders a six-team expansion of the field, that could embolden some teams to be more aggressive buyers.
The greater number of postseason clubs not only widens the field of potential buyers but also narrows how many teams will be pure sellers. That could serve to up the demand for the trade assets on the few teams who are committed to selling off pieces. And it could lead to some dramatic last-minute decisions for teams that are on the cusp. Today’s brand of methodical, analytical GMs don’t make the emotional and even irrational plunges into transactions that once proliferated deadline season, but there’s a good chance we’ll again see some creative swaps of unexpected players. Complicated three-team trades have become prominent in recent years, and a radical change to the playoff format should only encourage creativity.
And what of the teams with trade candidates who have multiple seasons of club control remaining? At a time when clubs are reluctant to part with high-end talent to acquire 30-some games of a rental, a player controlled into 2021, 2022 or beyond becomes eminently more appealing. Matthew Boyd, Caleb Smith, Jon Gray, Francisco Lindor, Nolan Arenado and other controllable names who’ve been kicked about the rumor circuit in recent years will again be in demand. Depending on the status of those players’ teams at the halfway point of the season, the motivation to make a deal could increase. It’s worth reminding that only players in a team’s 60-man pool can be traded, so there are some clear restrictions in play, but the ripple effect here could be considerable.
Updates On Coronavirus Results, Testing Sites, Procedures
MLB and the MLBPA released the results of their initial intake testing this morning via a press release. Through July 9th, there have been 66 positive tests out of 3,748 samples. 58 of the positives were players, while the other 8 were staff members. Only 3 clubs did not have any instances of positive tests.
Teams have now moved into the monitoring phase of testing. With monitoring now underway, the new totals have 83 positive tests from a total 11,149 samples (0.7%). Not included in the press release was the total number of individuals tested. Players and staff alike are being tested multiple times, and while it’s good to see such a low positive results rate, given the way this virus spreads, it would be apropos to know the total number of individuals being tested to get a sense of how much of the population is testing positive. The process, of course, is a work in progress. Here’s the latest from the MLB’s attempts to tackle the coronavirus pandemic…
- A number of teams had to shift their plans as test results have come in slower than anticipated. This garnered criticism from some players – notably Kris Bryant – and prompted MLB to look for a second site. Needless to say, timing is key with these tests, and any testing backlog threatens the system the sport established to protect player and staff safety. MLB has secured a second site for testing, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Rosenthal provides this quote from a league spokesperson: “This decision was not made because the Utah lab cannot handle all of the testing taking place. No clinical laboratory will process samples faster than the Utah laboratory. This decision by the Utah lab was a business decision to ensure continuity of results reporting and to make sure that MLB’s COVID-19 testing program is not interrupted for any reason.” The Utah-based lab that MLB uses as its primary testing site subcontracted its additional venue at Rutgers University. All of the results will continue to come from the Utah site even though a portion of the testing will be diverted to the Rutgers location.
- Major League Baseball recently chartered two flights from the Dominican Republic to Miami to bring players and staff members stateside for the start of Spring Training 2.0. But players and staff weren’t tested for coronavirus before boarding the planes, and even though passengers wore masks and socially distanced on board, players on both planes tested positive during intake testing, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Over 160 people were present on the two flights. A number of Washington Nationals players present on these flights tests positive, though they were asymptomatic. MLB says it was protecting the Dominican healthcare system, trying not to divert their resources. Still, considering the dangers of the virus, to board those two planes without testing is a little fast and loose for an organization with such deep pockets like Major League Baseball. If they are truly committed to this reboot, instances like this don’t present the best optics.
Latest On Training Facilities, Health Concerns, Potential Rule Changes
Decisions are looming for MLB and the MLBPA regarding a potential 2020 season. The distribution of revenue, salary amounts for players, and the length of the season have been the most publicly controversial topics, but there is a myriad of other negotiating points that could change the game in 2020.
For starters, the league and players are reportedly agreed on changing the format of extra-inning games for the 2020 season. They would adopt the minor league rules that received a trial starting in 2018, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. In extras, each team would start with a runner on second base (the batter who made the last out in the previous inning). This should press the action and help avoid ties taking games deep into the night. That runner would count as an unearned run for the pitcher, going down in the scorebooks as if the batter reached on an error. Regardless of whether or not they decide to allow for ties, rules will revert to traditional extra-inning rules for the start of the postseason.
Even bigger than revenue sharing or rule changes, however, are the health conditions facing players. Yesterday represented a step back as news broke of players at multiple MLB facilities with confirmed COVID-19 exposure (stories from Angels, Phillies, Blue Jays, Astros, and Giants).
This underscores a concern for players, who are seeking additional protections for players. It’s been agreed upon that high-risk players can elect to skip the 2020 season with full pay and service time, but the players’ union are looking to get those protections extended to players with high-risk family members as well, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Any player can choose to opt-out of the season, but as of right now, unless a player qualifies as high risk, they would forfeit their right to accrue service time or collect a paycheck.
For now, all thirty teams have shut down their training facilities for cleaning, per Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. Given the cases of coronavirus that were revealed yesterday (including 11 NHL players), it’s certainly the prudent call to shut down the facilities to reboot (and disinfect). Clearly, the negotiations between the league and players become moot if they can’t establish a clean and safe environment.
The sport has taken a lot of heat for the contentious nature of the debate between owners and players, but if owners can’t guarantee the safety of players, and if players can’t do their part to stay as safe as possible, a lot of time and money will have been wasted trying to get the game back on track.
MLBPA Rejects Latest League Proposal For 2020 Season; No Counter-Proposal Planned
10:46PM: Correcting an earlier report, USA Today Bob Nightengale tweets that there won’t be any counter-offer from the league to the players.
9:12PM: Major League Baseball has also released a statement in regards to today’s news…
We are disappointed that the MLBPA has chosen not to negotiate in good faith over resumption of play after MLB has made three successive proposals that would provide players, Clubs and our fans with an amicable resolution to a very difficult situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The MLBPA understands that the agreement reached on March 26th was premised on the parties’ mutual understanding that the players would be paid their full salaries only if play resumed in front of fans, and that another negotiation was to take place if Clubs could not generate the billions of dollars of ticket revenue required to pay players. The MLBPA’s position that players are entitled to virtually all the revenue from a 2020 season played without fans is not fair to the thousands of other baseball employees that Clubs and our office are supporting financially during this very difficult 2020 season. We will evaluate the Union’s refusal to adhere to the terms of the March Agreement, and after consulting with ownership, determine the best course to bring baseball back to our fans.
6:23PM: As expected, the MLB Players Association has turned down the owners’ latest proposal for the 2020 season, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). No counter offer is coming, as MLBPA executive director Tony Clark indicated in a public statement that players will now turn their attention towards preparing for whatever type of regular season Commissioner Rob Manfred decides to impose.
The rest of Clark’s statement…
Players want to play. It’s who we are and what we do. Since March, the Association has made it clear that our No.1 focus is playing the fullest season possible, as soon as possible, as safely as possible. Players agreed to billions in monetary concessions as a means to that end, and in the face of repeated media leaks and misdirection we made additional proposals to inject new revenues into the industry — proposals that would benefit the owners, players, broadcast partners, and fans alike.
“It’s now become apparent that these efforts have fallen upon deaf ears. In recent days, owners have decried the supposed unprofitability of owning a baseball team and the Commissioner has repeatedly threatened to schedule a dramatically shortened season unless players agree to hundreds of millions in further concessions. Our response has been consistent that such concessions are unwarranted, would be fundamentally unfair to players, and that our sport deserves the fullest 2020 season possible. These remain our positions today, particularly in light of new reports regarding MLB’s national television rights — information we requested from the league weeks ago but were never provided.
As a result, it unfortunately appears that further dialogue with the league would be futile. It’s time to get back to work. Tell us when and where.
As definitive as Clark’s statement is, more last-second negotiations between the two sides can’t be entirely ruled out. (After all, the owners allegedly weren’t planning to make any further counters after an earlier offer in June, though the two sides continued to swap proposals after that so-called final offer.) Barring an eleventh-hour breakthrough, however, it appears as though there won’t be any agreement to begin the 2020 season under conditions that both the union and the league could at least tolerate, if not fully embrace. As such, Manfred can now make a unilateral decision about the length of the 2020 regular season, as was decided back in March in the initial agreement between Major League Baseball and the MLBPA about how to proceed in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The league’s most recent proposal offered the players a 72-game regular season and 70 percent of their prorated salaries, with the prorated salary number jumping to 83 percent if the postseason was completed in its entirety. While the offer contained several other details, it’s clear that the issue of prorated salary was the main sticking point, as the MLBPA has steadfastly maintained that they were owed their full share of prorated salaries, as per their interpretation of the now infamously vague March agreement. Owners, by contrast, have insisted that paying these full prorated salaries would create too much of a financial burden (over $4 billion in losses, by the league’s calculations) given that these games are expected to be played without any fans in attendance.
To say these negotiations haven’t gone smoothly is an understatement. There has been quite the public war of words between players, owners, and league and union officials in the last several weeks, ranging from social media barbs to controversial interviews to increasingly pointed communiques between the two sides. None of this back-and-forth has seemingly brought the league and players any closer to a deal, and has largely served only as a PR battle that has brought a ton of public criticism directed at both parties.
As per earlier offers from the league, Manfred could wind up imposing a regular season of roughly 50 games — reportedly all the owners can financially manage given the MLBPA’s insistence on full prorated salaries. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), the union wants to see the league’s plans for beginning the season by Monday, as per a letter from union negotiator Bruce Meyer to deputy commissioner Dan Halem.
Should the league’s plans indeed come so quickly, we could be on track for baseball’s return by roughly mid-July, factoring in time for players to ramp up their preparation in a “Spring Training 2.0” camp before beginning what will surely be the strangest season in baseball’s long history. Even beyond such details as the formats of the regular season and postseason, roster construction, transactions, etc., there is also the looming spectre of COVID-19, and how the league will implement health and safety procedures to best protect players, coaches, staff, and other involved parties.