Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a massive extension with the Blue Jays back in April, Kyle Tucker has been viewed as the consensus top player in this winter’s free agent class. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s a four-time All-Star, a former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award winner, and the fifth-place finisher in AL MVP voting in 2023. That resume is what convinced the Cubs to trade All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, top prospect Cam Smith, and young starter Hayden Wesneski to the Astros last winter in order to acquire Tucker in his final year of club control.
It’s a decision that paid off in a big way during the first half of the season. Through the end of June, Tucker slashed an phenomenal .291/.395/.537 across 83 games. Among qualified hitters, only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, and Will Smith had a higher wRC+ than Tucker’s 158 during that stretch. While it wasn’t quite on par with the otherworldly 179 wRC+ Tucker posted in 78 games with the Astros last year, it was still an undeniably dominant showing that led to many wondering if he would join Guerrero and Juan Soto in clearing the $500MM benchmark upon hitting free agency this winter.
Once the calendar flipped to July, however, things changed for Tucker in a hurry. In 163 plate appearances since the start of July, Tucker has hit just .189/.325/.235 with a wRC+ of just 72. He’s tallied just four extra-base hits in that time and has gone a full month without hitting a home run at this point after launching his last long ball on July 19. Tucker’s slump has been lengthy enough and severe enough that club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) yesterday that he plans to give Tucker “some days off” in hopes of helping him reset and get back on track.
That the Cubs are sitting a player who looked like a legitimate MVP candidate just over a month ago is inherently shocking, but it’s hard not to see why given his recent performance. It’s fair to wonder how Tucker’s deep struggles of late may have impacted his market in free agency, as well. After all, a major calling card for Tucker has been his consistency and reliability as a middle-of-the-order force. An extended slump such as this one puts a hole in that narrative, especially when combined with him missing half of last season due to injury.
When looking at other outfielders who signed mega deals in free agency, Tucker’s resume doesn’t quite measure up. He no longer seems likely to wind up with an absurd platform season like Judge (nine years, $360MM) put together in 2022, and he’s three years older than Bryce Harper (13 years, $330MM) was when he reached free agency. The inflation top-level MLB contracts have seen in recent years should help Tucker, especially as compared to Harper’s contract from all the way back in the 2018-19 offseason, but if his season doesn’t turn around going forward he may not even crack the $400MM threshold in free agency, much less $500MM.
So, will Tucker be able to turn things around? There’s certainly some reasons for optimism. Most notably, his discipline at the plate has remained elite even during his slump. Since July 1, Tucker has actually walked (16.0%) more often than he’s struck out (15.3%). His .224 BABIP during that period suggests some positive regression could be on the way in terms of batted ball luck, but even underlying metrics like hard-hit rate (27.9%) and barrel rate (2.7%) suggest he’s earned his lack of power production. There’s been speculation in some circles that a finger injury suffered when sliding into second base could be the cause of his power outage, but that’s a somewhat dubious claim between Tucker himself suggesting his finger has not caused him problems at the plate and the fact that he had a 14.7% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate in 24 June games following his return from the injury.
It would be a shock if Tucker truly batted below the Mendoza line with virtually no power the rest of the way this year. He’s been a bottom 20 player in baseball since July 1 in terms of wRC+, and it’s practically unheard of for a player of his caliber to perform that poorly for that long when not dealing with some sort of physical issue or age-related decline. With that said, it’s worth noting that Tucker’s recent slump has actually put his 2025 numbers more or less in line with his career norms. Tucker is hitting .261/.374/.447 with a 131 wRC+ overall this year. Through the end of the 2023 season, Tucker was a career .272/.345/.507 (132 wRC+) hitter.
Those slash lines are awfully similar, and it stands to reason that it’s at least possible Tucker’s incredible 78-game 2024 campaign was simply an outlier. On the other hand, it must also be noted that Tucker put together 709 plate appearances between the start of the 2024 season and the end of June 2025 where he hit a combined .290/.401/.559 with a wRC+ of 168. Only Judge (218), Ohtani (179), and Soto (171) posted better numbers during that time frame. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Tucker is able to recapture some of that production over the season’s final six weeks and ends up with a strong platform year, even if it doesn’t quite reach the heights that looked possible two months ago.
What do MLBTR readers think is in store for Tucker over the final weeks of the 2025 campaign? Will he be able to turn things around and quell any doubts created by his recent struggles? Will his slump continue and push his season numbers lower than they are now? Or will his numbers settle in as he levels off somewhere close to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below: