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MLBTR Poll: What Should The Cardinals Do With Alex Reyes?

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The Cardinals rotation has featured a series of guest stars and few regulars this season, with 12 different pitchers taking a turn and only 40-year-old Adam Wainwright logging enough innings to qualify. As a group, they’re 13th in the Majors in terms of starters’ innings, and 12th league-wide by measure of ERA (4.02 ERA). By measure of FIP, however, their 4.46 FIP ranks 20th in the game, and if we look ahead to 2022, there’s more than enough uncertainty to make nervous thinkers in Redbird Nation fret.

The five guys currently taking hill turns for manager Mike Shildt have an average age of 36.5, so it’s not a sprightly group. Except for Miles Mikolas, they’re all heading towards free agency at year’s end, too. In fact, of those 12 players who have started a game in 2021, six will be free agents, and John Gant has already been dealt to Minnesota. All of which is to say, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them before Opening Day 2022.

The cupboard isn’t barren, however. For starters, there will be the annual Wainwright retirement question. But with Yadier Molina coming back for one final season, isn’t it almost too perfect for Waino to do anything but follow suit?

Jack Flaherty raises the ceiling of the group, and they’ve made clear that priority one is getting their ace ready for next season, even if that means shutting it down the rest of this year. Dakota Hudson will be an interesting wildcard as he returns from Tommy John. Mikolas is also trying to get healthy, having made just three starts this season. The Cards are on the hook to pay him $17MM in each of the next two seasons, so if the 33-year-old can get healthy, he should have a rotation spot.

Not to mention, any of Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, T.J. Zeuch, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, or Angel Rondon could be given a look. There are definitely arms floating around in the organization that could ramp up to earn rotation minutes.

But there’s another familiar name that’s going to be given a chance to win a rotation spot: Alex Reyes.

Reyes turns 27-years-old tomorrow, and the former top prospect is in the midst of an establishing campaign. In what’s really been his first full season in the bigs, Reyes has a 2.50 ERA/3.90 FIP over 57 2/3 innings. His usage has certainly been consistent: of his 55 appearances, 50 of them have finished the game, a mark that leads the Majors. Simply put, he’s gone from a high-ceiling rotation question mark to an All-Star closer.

But next season, Reyes will follow Carlos Martinez in the Cardinal tradition of yo-yo-ing organizational expectations from starter to closer and back again. Let’s be clear, for this season, Reyes is the Cardinals closer and that’s the end of it. But next year is a different story, said Shildt on MLB Network Radio. Reyes will be given the opportunity to compete for a rotation spot in 2022.

Reyes has maintained a starter’s arsenal in the bullpen, throwing his fastball, slider, and sinker with almost equal usage rates. He’s been even more diverse against lefties, mixing in an occasional curveball or change-up as needed. His heater has averaged 96.5 mph, which is right around what he was averaging when he first came up as a starter. It might be, then, that he’d lose a tick or two if spread out to a starter’s workload.

The concern relates to his injury history and whether or not the Cards should risk losing another valuable bullpen arm by risking a move to the rotation. There’s more upside in the rotation, of course, but there’s something to be said for letting Reyes stay where he’s been successful. After all, if there’s a desire to get him more time on the mound, the Cards could ramp up his usage with multi-inning outings instead of making a full-scale switch to the rotation.

However many innings Reyes finishes with this season will be his most in a single year since the 2016 campaign. He threw between 100 and 110 innings from 2014 to 2016, which is pretty typical for a young arm on the rise. Whether one healthy season is enough to make Reyes ready for that kind of workload again is unclear.

As a starter, of course, the hope would be that he’d surpass even those totals. That said, it’s looking like only Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim will accumulate more than 100 innings from the Cards’ rotation this season, so there’s space to make an impact even without posting an 150-inning season.

Even tempering expectations, the Cards could expect 40-50 more innings from Reyes if he can stay healthy in the rotation. Considering his injury history, however, it’s tempting to take the money on the table now and settle in with Reyes as the closer of the next few years.

Of course, Cardinal closers haven’t been any more immune to arm injuries than their starters have, so there’s an argument to be made that whichever course they take with Reyes, there’s risk. If that’s the case, why not pursue the upside of a rotation slot?

From the beginning of the year, the Cardinals have maintained that this season would be an opportunity to inch Reyes’ workload closer to that of a starter and look ahead next season. He’s been much closer to a traditional reliever than the multi-inning firearm we might have expected, but he’s still likely to finish with something close to 70 innings.

The last consideration is timeline. Even though this will be Reyes’ first full season in the Majors, he has just two years of arbitration remaining, so it might be now or never to see if Reyes can be a starter before he hits the open market. Two years as a starter might make Reyes too pricey for the Cards, but it might also give them enough certainty to lock him up at the right rate, knowing he could be a starter moving forward.

Wainwright believes Reyes can make the jump, per Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who provides this quote from Reyes about Wainwright: “He always looks at me and tells me, ‘Hey man, you’re a starter. You know I was there, and I was able to do it. I believe you can. Just those words of encouragement, they make me feel good. And also, they give me the thought. Someone like Adam Wainwright, who has had such a long career here and has been pitching for so long, if he thinks like that of me?”

Let’s give the St. Louis brass some help and point them in the right direction.

(poll link for app users)

Justin Verlander And The Qualifying Offer

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It’s always been a long shot that Justin Verlander would be able to return in 2021, but Astros general manager James Click confirmed to Sean Salisbury of SportsTalk 790 AM in Houston this morning that Verlander won’t pitch for the team down the stretch (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Click tells Salisbury that Verlander recently inquired with his doctors about the possibility and was “strongly advised” against attempting a comeback in 2021, as such a quick turnaround would carry “tremendous risk for the efficacy of the surgery.” Verlander had previously spoken with a hint of optimism about returning as a reliever in the season’s final weeks.

Verlander tweeted back in May that he planned to continue pitching “for a long time” and hasn’t considered retirement, but it’s not yet clear where he’ll continue his career. The 38-year-old (39 in February) is set to hit the open market at season’s end, though the ’Stros will first need to determine whether they want to make a qualifying offer to Verlander.

A one-year offer in the $19MM range would normally be deemed steep for any pitcher coming off a season spent rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but Verlander is, of course, no ordinary pitcher. He’s only pitched six innings since Opening Day 2020, but Verlander is a two-time Cy Young winner, a three-time Cy Young runner-up, an eight-time All-Star and a former American League MVP. His last full season, pitched at 36 years of age in 2019, saw him rack up 223 innings of 2.52 ERA ball en route to the second of those two Cy Young wins.

A straightforward path for Verlander may be to simply accept a payday in the $19MM range — if offered — and remain in a setting where he’s clearly comfortable. That sum checks in well north of the recent bounceback salaries we’ve seen for similarly high-profile names like Corey Kluber ($11MM), so there’d be good reason for him to consider it. On the other hand, it’s a pretty sizable cut from Verlander’s prior $33MM salary, and the veteran may simply want to test the free-agent market for the first time in his career. Verlander has played out his entire career on a series of extensions with the Tigers and Astros, so he’s never explored the open market.

The question for the Astros, meanwhile, is whether they’d want to invest $19MM (or thereabouts) into a soon-to-be 39-year-old pitcher who has made just one start since winning that Cy Young Award in 2019. There aren’t many more appealing players on whom to take a one-year flier than Verlander, but the Houston payroll is already rather large.

[Related: 2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates]

The Astros have just under $97MM on the books in 2022, and that’s before arbitration raises to Framber Valdez (first time eligible), Josh James (first time), Phil Maton (second time), Ryne Stanek (second time), Rafael Montero (third time) and Aledmys Diaz (third time). That $97MM number also doesn’t include club options for Yuli Gurriel ($8MM) or Ryan Pressly ($10MM) — both of which seem sure to be picked up, barring a late injury. None of those arb-eligible players will break the bank in terms of 2022 salary — some could obviously be non-tendered, too — but those smaller salaries will begin to add up.

Furthermore, the Astros will have some big names to replace. Carlos Correa is a free agent and could land elsewhere after rejecting the team’s extension overtures in Spring Training. Consummate innings eater Zack Greinke is set to hit the market as well, and the Astros also stand to lose relievers Kendall Graveman, Yimi Garcia and Brooks Raley to free agency. If Verlander were to accept a qualifying offer, the Houston payroll could jump north of $140MM before the team even looks at replacing Correa or any of the departing relievers. Their 2021 payroll currently sits at about $189MM.

The in-house rotation depth the Astros already possess is also a factor in determining whether to extend a qualifying offer to Verlander. Even with a pair of likely Hall of Famers potentially departing (Greinke, Verlander), the Astros can still boast a staff of Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia,Valdez, Jake Odorizzi, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. That’s before even considering upper-level arms like Hunter Brown and Peter Solomon. There’s an argument to be made that dedicating a sizable portion of available offseason resources to a rebound candidate in the rotation — even one with as much upside as Verlander — shouldn’t be the team’s priority.

We know the Astros are going to make a qualifying offer to Correa, and as one of the top free agents on the market, he’ll reject that QO without a second thought. Verlander is a closer call, but the Astros will surely be intrigued by the possibility of getting a compensatory pick after their recent penalties in the draft (stemming from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal). Plus, even with the in-house options they do have, a one-year deal for Verlander has plenty of appeal. The Astros could, and probably should, just extend the qualifying offer and be happy with either outcome.

What do MLBTR readers think? (Links to both polls)

MLBTR Poll: Can The A’s Replace Ramon Laureano?

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The Oakland A’s were a popular pick to regress this season after winning the AL West with a .600 win percentage during the truncated 2020 season. The presumption of the A’s decline was fueled by the departures of impact players in free agency: namely, Marcus Semien to Toronto, Tommy La Stella to San Francisco, Liam Hendriks to Chicago, and Robbie Grossman to Detroit.

Those were notable losses, but lackluster replacements spoke more to the overall skepticism surrounding the team: Elvis Andrus and an aged Jed Lowrie in the infield, Mitch Moreland taking many of the at-bats in the designated hitter spot that went to Grossman (with holders Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, or Stephen Piscotty taking his spot in the field), and Trevor Rosenthal signed to assume the closer’s role.

Of course, the details of the “Moneyball” model that made the A’s front office famous has changed over the years, but one thing that hasn’t is their non-linear approach to roster creation. Replacing Semien, La Stella, Hendriks, and Grossman wasn’t a casting problem. If it were, the collective 0.6 rWAR accrued by their replacements would be enough to tank this roster.

Instead, the A’s are outperforming their projections with a 62-48 record, which carries a 57.4% chance of making the playoffs. They’re just three games behind the Astros for the division lead, 1.5 games ahead of the Yankees for the second wild card spot.

It seems like every year now that the A’s simply find a way. They were left for dead mid-way through last season, too, when star Matt Chapman was lost for the year. When they chose to replace him with scrapheap pickup Jake Lamb and platoon-players like Chad Pinder and Vimael Machin, it seemed that the A’s were doomed for a second-half skid.

Not so. Despite posting nearly identical win percentages the two seasons prior (.599 in both 2018 and 2019, 97-win seasons), 2020 marked Oakland’s first division title since 2012 and 2013. With the Ramon Laureano suspension now in effect, can the A’s yet again survive the loss of a key two-way position player?

Obviously, the acquisition of Starling Marte at the deadline looks even better now than it did a week ago. He certainly stands as a more significant replacement than Lamb from a year ago. And yet, bringing in Marte seemed like such a boon because he shored up a real weak spot in the lineup. That spot is back to being a question mark for the final two months of the season.

Marte can ably fill the void defensively. Despite Laureano’s flashy tools, there’s an argument to be made that an outfield of Mark Canha, Marte, and Seth Brown could be better defensively. Laureano’s -1 OAA comes in last behind Marte at +6 and Canha and Brown both at +4. DRS and UZR give Laureano more credit, but Marte ought to nevertheless mostly replace his glove.

With the bat, Brown and Stephen Piscotty are likely to step back in as a relatively straightforward platoon in right. Piscotty’s been below-average this season, but he’s better against lefties with a 98 wRC+. The same can be said for Brown going the other way with his 97 wRC+ against right-handers. Together that doesn’t exactly add up to Laureano’s 114 wRC+, but it helps close the gap.

Of course, replacing a player for the A’s always involved a bit of sleight of hand. Utility man Josh Harrison might be the answer to replacing Laureano, either by slotting directly into the outfield, or by taking time at second while Kemp moves to the grass. Harrison played his way back into relevance with a .291/.363/.431 line over 450 plate appearances with the Nationals the past two seasons. The upgrade from Aramis Garcia (54 wRC+) to Yan Gomes (104 wRC+) may also help pick up some of the slack — as might the addition of Andrew Chafin in the pen.

So how worried should A’s fans be? Will they have enough to hold off the onrushing Yankees, Blue Jays, and Mariners for a playoff spot? Can they catch the Astros? What say you of Oakland’s chances the rest of the way?

(poll link for app users)

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Which Contender Should Trade For Jonathan Schoop?

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The Tigers are 47-53, 12 games behind the White Sox for the division lead. Their fate was sealed by a disastrous April when they went 8-19 to start the year. Since then, they’ve actually put together three consecutive winnings months, including an 11-8 mark so far in July. These Tigers have played perhaps the most enticing stretch of baseball we’ve seen from Motor City in years, but they’re still sellers heading into this trade deadline.

Jonathan Schoop, Jose Cisnero, Kyle Funkhouser, Gregory Soto, Daniel Norris, and Jeimer Candelario are the names most likely to draw trade interest here in the week before the deadline, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Schoop’s name has certainly been bandied about the most in the Twitterverse, mostly as a lower-cost option for teams not interesting in paying presumably high-end returns for other available infielders like Trevor Story or Adam Frazier.

Schoop, after all, is a free agent at the end of the year and making just $4.5MM. He doesn’t have the controllable contract like Frazier or the long-term track record of Story, but he would nonetheless be a valuable addition for someone.

With a 116 wRC, he’s an above-average bat for the third time in five years (he was exactly average with a 100 wRC+ in 2019. He’s slashing .289/.330/.471 with a .182 ISO that’s actually a little low for Schoop’s norms. He’s doesn’t strike out over much and his bat carries consistent pop.

Defensively, he’s not garnering the plus marks that he has in the past, but he can still handle multiple positions as a first and second baseman. He absolutely crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a 161 wRC+ this year. He’s a first division platoon bat with the capability of being an everyday, impact player on a playoff team. He fits the Howie Kendrick mold from the 2019 Nationals, and though it’s not fair to put Hendricks’ heroic expectations onto Schoop, he can be that kind of all-purpose, veteran bat that won’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire.

Like Kendrick, his physical abilities don’t leap off the page, and he doesn’t play a premium position, but he’s a textbook professional hitter. Schoop isn’t the big name that many fan bases might be hunting, but if the Tigers are inclined to move him, he can absolutely be a difference-making piece for a contender. Just a couple weeks ago, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk did the work of finding the best fits for Schoop, but let’s hear from you: which contender would benefit the most from adding Schoop’s potent right-handed bat to their first base/second base/DH/bench crew?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

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With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

 

(poll link for app users)

National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

 

(poll link for app users)

Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Home Run Derby?

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A busy week for Major League Baseball kicked off Sunday with the Futures Game during the day and the first 36 picks of the 2021 MLB Draft in the evening. It’ll continue with Day Two of the draft today and the annual Home Run Derby this evening.

Tonight’s eight-player field consists of top seed Shohei Ohtani, followed (in order of MLB’s seeding) by Joey Gallo, Matt Olson, Salvador Perez, Pete Alonso, Trey Mancini, Trevor Story and Juan Soto. One half of the bracket will see Ohtani/Soto and Perez/Alonso in first-round matchups, while the other half will see Gallo/Story and Olson/Mancini. We’ll take a very brief look at each participating slugger’s season to date (sorted by their first-round matchup) before opening up polls on who fans are rooting for and who they expect to take home the trophy.

  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Angels: Ohtani has been the talk of baseball in 2021, leading MLB with 33 home runs while also pitching to a 3.49 ERA with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate on the mound.
    • .279/.364/.698, 33 home runs
    • 93.7 mph average exit velocity, 119 mph max exit velo, 26 percent barrel rate
  • Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: Soto hasn’t matched his 2019 power output, but he’s the youngest entrant in the field and has been one of baseball’s elite hitters from the moment he homered in his first big league at-bat back in 2018.
    • .283/.407/.445, 11 home runs
    • 92.6 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 10.8 percent barrel rate

—

  • Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: After a slow start, Gallo looks well on his way to another 40-homer season. He’s hitting .308/.479/.838 with 15 home runs since June 4.
    • .239/.402/.522, 24 home runs
    • 92.4 mph average exit velo, 115.1 mph max, 19.6 percent barrel rate
  • Trevor Story, SS, Rockies:  Story will take the field hoping for an upset win that could serve as something of a Coors Field farewell with the trade deadline and free agency looming.
    • .249/.323/.442, 11 home runs
    • 90.7 mph average exit velo, 110.2 mph max, 9.2 percent barrel rate

—

  • Salvador Perez, C, Royals: The seven-time All-Star gets better with age. He’s ripped 32 home runs in just 519 plate appearances dating back to the beginning of the 2020 campaign.
    • .275/.300/.501, 21 home runs
    • 93 mph average exit velo, 114.2 mph max, 14.3 percent barrel rate
  • Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso will defend his 2019 title — there was no 2020 Home Run Derby — in the midst of a hot streak. Eleven of the Polar Bear’s 17 big flies have come since Memorial Day weekend.
    • .250/.328/.478, 17 home runs
    • 92.7 mph average exit velo, 117.1 mph max, 15.7 percent barrel rate

—

  • Matt Olson, 1B, Athletics: Since 2017, the underrated Olson leads all full-time first basemen with 126 home runs, and he’s on pace to top his career-high mark of 36.
    • .282/.371/.567, 23 home runs
    • 92 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 14.4 percent barrel rate
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles: That Mancini was able to return to the field at all after being diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer in early 2020 is remarkable; a derby win would be a feel-good story for baseball fans everywhere.
    • .256/.331/.460, 16 home runs
    • 88.5 mph average exit velo, 113.9 mph max, 12.9 percent barrel rate

Who do you want to see win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

Who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

Poll: Mitch Haniger’s Future In Seattle

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With a year and a half to go before free agency, Mariners right fielder Mitch Haniger will be among the more talked-about names in the three-plus weeks leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. The veteran outfielder is in the midst of a bounceback campaign after a pair of injury-ruined seasons, batting .252/.304/.479 (116 wRC+) with 18 home runs, 16 doubles and a triple. Statcast pegs him at three Outs Above Average in right field.

Despite that nice showing, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that the team has not yet approached Haniger about an extension, even though he’d be open to such talks. This time of year, such revelations are often accompanied by the assumption that absent a contract extension, a player is likely to be traded. That’s sometimes true — it’s reportedly more or less the case with Starling Marte down in Miami, for instance — but every situation is different.

Mitch Haniger | Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Firstly, the Mariners aren’t squarely out of postseason contention. It’d be tough to erase a seven-game deficit and overtake not one but two very good teams (Houston and Oakland) en route to a division title, but the M’s have played good ball as of late and are now five games over .500. A Wild Card berth would be more viable, and they’re looking at a more manageable 3.5-game deficit in that race. At the very least, GM Jerry Dipoto is going to want to see how his club performs over the next couple of weeks before trading away veteran contributors.

Beyond that, the Mariners may not feel forced to trade Haniger, even though this is the apex of his trade value. It’s true that they’d get more for trading one-plus season of him in the next three weeks than they would by marketing one year of Haniger this winter, but it’s not as though he’d be devoid of trade value in the offseason — or even next summer. And with the Mariners playing as well as they have been lately, there’s reason to at least wait until the deadline approaches to give this group a chance to decide its own fate.

The Mariners, after all, are staring down a two-decade postseason drought. If they’re within arm’s reach of a Wild Card berth and/or a division lead in the days leading up to the deadline, it’d be hard to fault the front office for opting to ride things out with the current group (or even for making some additions that don’t mortgage the future). The fanbase in Seattle is starved for playoff baseball, and the heavy lifting in their rebuild has already been done. We also regularly hear GMs, managers, coaches and veteran players talk about the importance of exposing young players to the pressure of a postseason chase. It’s hard to quantify the benefit of that type of experience, but most agree on its inherent value.

As for an extension, however, that’d be another beast entirely. The best-case scenario for the Mariners is that their vaunted farm produces a controllable outfield. Jarred Kelenic struggled in his first taste of the Majors earlier this year, but he was making the jump to big leagues at 21 and with just six games of Triple-A experience under his belt. He’s demolished Triple-A pitching since being optioned back down to Tacoma — .302/.382/.621, seven homers, seven doubles, one triple, 14.5 percent strikeout rate, 10.9 percent walk rate — and is still seen as a long-term cornerstone.

Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez entered the season as consensus top-five prospects in all of baseball. Taylor Trammell has been widely regarded as a top-100 prospect himself, and the Mariners of course have 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis — though he’s currently sidelined by another knee injury. That doesn’t even take into account 26-year-old Jake Fraley, who has never been considered an elite prospect but has emphatically forced his way into the conversation with a .263/.437/.505 showing in 134 plate appearances so far.

Suffice it to say, the Mariners are deep in outfield talent and there are only so many spots to go around. Extending Haniger takes one of those long-term positions and commits it to a player who’ll turn 31 this winter and is five years older than any of the in-house alternatives. There’s something to be said for Haniger as a proven commodity, but the Mariners also likely trust they can assemble a high-quality outfield with younger, more affordable players. Doing so would allow them to dedicate their financial resources to other areas of need.

Considering their outfield depth, it’s not too surprising to hear the Mariners haven’t put forth a long-term offer for Haniger. That doesn’t necessarily make a trade a fait accompli, however.

It’s possible that three weeks from now, the team’s play will have solved any potential dilemma for the front office. Seattle’s final seven games before the trade deadline come against the Athletics and Astros, from July 22-28. They have an off-day on the 29th. If the M’s stay red-hot and come away with a pair of series wins in that pivotal seven-game stretch, Dipoto & Co. will likely be more emboldened to take a measured shot at a 2021 run. If the Mariners go something like 5-13 in their remaining 18 games leading up to the deadline, including some poor play against their top rivals, it becomes far likelier that we’ll see Haniger and other veterans marketed in a hurry.

It’s too soon to know just how that’ll all play out, but we’ll still open this one up for debate. As things stand right now, what’s the best course of action for the M’s to take with Haniger? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Should The Royals Proceed With Danny Duffy?

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Royals left-hander Danny Duffy made his return from the injured list this evening, starting tonight’s game against the Yankees. The 32-year-old tossed two scoreless innings in a purposely brief appearance, his first action in a little more than a month. Before going on the IL with a left flexor strain, Duffy had gotten off to a very strong start to the season. Through seven starts totaling 41 2/3 innings, he worked to a pristine 1.94 ERA/2.35 FIP/3.65 SIERA.

Over the season’s first month-plus, he punched out a well above-average 28.2% of opposing hitters, a career-best mark, while walking only 7.1%. On a pitch-by-pitch basis, Duffy generated swings and misses at a 14.2% clip, also a career-best figure that’s well above the league average of 11.4%. His average fastball, slider and curveball velocity were all up between one and two ticks relative to last season. He held that increased pitch speed in today’s start, a welcome development considering there could’ve been some concern about potential lingering effects of the injury and accompanying layoff.

Because of the injury, his body of work remains a fairly small sample. Duffy’s had better month-plus stretches in his career, but he hasn’t had a seven-start run at this level since late in 2017, his last season posting an ERA below 4.00. Duffy’s not going to sustain an ERA below 2.00, but he certainly looks to have bounced back from his middling 2018-20 form. Between 2016-17, the veteran worked to a 3.64 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers- solid mid-rotation production. Given his improved raw stuff and early-season peripherals, it’s not unreasonable to think he can approximate that kind of performance moving forward.

If Duffy continues to pitch at an above-average level while building back towards a starter’s workload, contending clubs figure to reach out about his potential availability. The Royals got off to a strong start but they’ve fallen off rather precipitously since the start of May. Now 33-39, Kansas City has fallen ten games back in the American League Central. They don’t seem like plausible postseason contenders in 2021. With Duffy slated to be a free agent at the end of the year- and the trade market for starting pitching shaping up to be thin- he’d be a fairly straightforward trade candidate in most organizations.

The Royals operate differently than many MLB teams, though. The front office has a reputation for being more loyal than most, and they’ve re-signed or reacquired many of the players who contributed to their pennant-winning clubs of the last decade. Trading away marquee players midseason hasn’t been their M.O.

In the past, Duffy has expressed a desire to stick in Kansas City for his entire career. In response to 2017 trade rumors, he rather famously tweeted “bury me a Royal” and expressed a strong affinity for the organization and the city. Even if the front office were willing to consider moving him near the deadline, Duffy could end those discussions. He entered the season with 9.085 years of MLB service, meaning he’ll have eclipsed ten years by July 30. Players with ten years of service, the most recent five with the same team, are granted full no-trade rights under the terms of the CBA. If Duffy has no interest in moving elsewhere midseason, he could exercise his 10-and-5 rights and block a move.

The Royals’ record and Duffy’s impending free agency could open a mutually-beneficial opportunity for a midseason deal, though. Trading Duffy (with his permission) before July 30 could give him an opportunity to play in a pennant race in 2021 and allow the organization to bring in some young talent. A midseason trade wouldn’t foreclose the two sides reuniting next winter. It’s not common for teams to sign players whom they traded away midseason in free agency the following offseason, but it’s not completely unheard of, either (the Cubs’ 2014 deal with Jason Hammel and the Yankees’ 2016 reunion with Aroldis Chapman being prominent examples). A trade would result in Duffy forfeiting his 10-and-5 rights, but the sides could agree on a no-trade clause as part of a free agent deal if he’s concerned about being moved again in the future.

It’s certainly possible the two sides work out a long-term deal during or after the year, with Duffy never changing uniforms. While it seems unlikely, there’s some chance the Royals hang onto Duffy all season but allow him to depart in free agency. But the opportunity also seems to exist for a trade that could appeal to both Duffy and the Royals, even if both sides want to continue the relationship over the long term.

We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership: how should and how will the Royals handle Duffy’s impending free agency? (poll links for app users)

 

 

Will Trevor Bauer Opt Out After The Season?

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When Trevor Bauer signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers back in February, he ensured flexibility by securing opt-outs after the first and second years.  However, the details suggest the contract was designed to keep Bauer in Los Angeles for the first two seasons.

Bauer received a $10MM signing bonus, $5MM of which was paid in March.  The other $5MM will be paid next month.  Beyond that, his 2021 salary is $28MM, but with the quirk that it’s all payable on November 1st of this year.  Here’s what happens if he opts out after the 2021 season, according to Cot’s:

Bauer may opt out of the contract after the 2021 season, receiving a $2M buyout, with Dodgers deferring $20M of 2021 salary without interest, paid in $2M installments each Dec. 1, 2031-40

In other words, if Bauer opts out after this season, he walks away with $12MM in hand, and then has to wait a decade until the Dodgers pay him again.  And even then, it’s $2MM per year for ten years, with no interest.  Your estimates may vary, but that deferred $20MM is worth a lot less than being paid now – most likely half as much.

Opting out after the 2022 season involves none of that deferred money stuff, and throws in a $15MM buyout.  Bauer would have earned $85MM for two seasons, foregoing a mere $17MM for ’23.  Barring injury, jumping out of the contract at this point seems like an easy choice.  As the best pitcher on the free agent market, Bauer landed a very flexible contract.  The Dodgers took on all the downside risk, which is the nature of opt-out clauses.

Bauer started this season strong enough to at least give another look to the possibility of opting out after ’21.  After an outing at San Francisco on May 21st, Bauer’s ERA sat at 1.98 through 12 starts, with a 36.2 K%.  If you had asked me at that point, I’d have said it’d make sense for Bauer to opt out after ’21, even if just to land the same three-year deal all over again.  But on the horizon was a hallmark date with a potentially large effect on Bauer and many other pitchers.  On June 3rd, Bob Nightengale wrote, “Major League Baseball informed owners Thursday that it is engaged in the next phase of league-directed enforcement banning the use of foreign substances by pitchers — which would include 10-day suspensions — two persons with direct knowledge of the meeting told USA TODAY Sports.”  Today, MLB announced its new enforcement plan, which starts Monday.

Through May 31st, Bauer averaged 2840 RPM and 93.8 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball.  In the two starts since, those numbers are 2630 RPM and 94.1 mph.  There are players who have lost more RPM on their four-seamers since the impending crackdown became known, without much velocity change, such as the Indians’ James Karinchak.  But Bauer’s 210 RPM loss on the four-seamer is significant, especially for a guy who throws the pitch 44% of the time.

All we can say definitively is that the average spin rate on Bauer’s four-seam fastball in two starts after June 3rd was 210 RPM lower than the average RPM in a dozen starts before that date.  That the RPM drop was caused by Bauer stopping the usage of foreign substances on the ball or changing what he uses is the implication, but not a fact.  It’d take a further leap to say that Bauer’s mediocre results in those two starts were caused by the RPM drop.  It should be noted that 2630 RPM still ranks sixth in baseball from June 3rd onward, and there’s nothing too meaningful about allowing seven earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.  It’s also worth pointing out that Bauer’s ERA was probably not going to stay around 2.00 even without a foreign substance crackdown.  Bauer certainly has not shied away from MLB’s sticky stuff drama, as he “demonstrated to reporters on the field before Tuesday’s game that a combination of sweat and rosin was sufficient to allow him to stick a baseball to his hand, palm down,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register.  He showed this on Twitter, while also diving into Tyler Glasnow’s comments.

If you’re an MLB GM considering signing Bauer at some point in the future, you’re definitely going to try to determine how much of Bauer’s recent success was the result of the use of foreign substances, because you have to forecast how he’ll perform over the next several years.  If this was a major consideration for Bauer’s suitors in the 2020-21 offseason, I didn’t hear about it.  For Bauer and potential suitors, the calculus has changed.  So let’s get your opinions on when we’ll see him next on the free agent market.

MLBTR Poll: Is It Time For The Twins To Sell?

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After a disappointing 17-29 start to the season, the Twins aren’t decided sellers, but they might not be far off, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Said GM Thad Levine, “We still believe in the team. We think it’s very talented, but we’re getting close to an inflection point where we’re going to need to see some more sustained momentum, as we believe we’re in a very competitive division, let alone league.” That sounds like a front office that’s readying to make the most of a bad situation.

The Twins are tied with the Orioles for the worst record in the American League after 46 games, roughly 28 percent of the way through the season. As of today, they sit 9.5 games behind the White Sox for the AL Central lead. They are 11 games out of a wild card spot. Only the Orioles and Tigers seem like definite sellers at this point in the AL, joined by the Pirates, Rockies, and Diamondbacks from the National League. The Twins could try to get a jump on the trade market and move some veterans while there’s still a large pool of potential buyers.

For context, on this date two years ago, the Nationals famously entered play at 19-31, 10 games behind the Phillies for the division lead, 8.5 games out of a wild card spot. So while there’s definitely precedent for turning it around at this stage of the game, it took a historic .661 win percentage the rest of the way to pull the Nats to 93 wins. The Twins will soon have to decide if they think this unit is capable of that kind of run.

They’re looking up at a crowded field in the American League where the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, White Sox, Astros, Blue Jays, A’s, and Indians look like contenders and the Royals, Rangers, Angels, and Mariners can make arguments in their favor. If the Twins decide to lean into a lost season, they certainly have some veterans on hand who could be helpful to contending teams. Nelson Cruz and his 138 wRC+ could certainly find a home, as might other veterans on short-term deals like Andrelton Simmons, Michael Pineda, Hansel Robles, J.A. Happ, or even Alex Colome.

More broadly, Miguel Sano could be shopped to a team needing power. Even someone like Max Kepler might fetch a juicy return given his team-friendly deal. The Twins have no need to move Kepler, but with young players like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff on hand, he might be someone a savvy team looking for outfield help might ask after.

The biggest fish would be Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, or Byron Buxton, all of whom have just one season left of arbitration before free agency. Moving any of the three would be a difficult call on the Twins’ part, however, considering the damage that kind of deal might do to their ability to contend in 2022. All that said, prospects are the currency of the game, and a strong development pool is the surest way to build a consistent winner.

The Twins are weighing their options, but let’s make this easy on them. Is it time to sell?

(Poll link for app users)

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