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Which Teams Make The Most Sense For Elvis Andrus?

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This offseason’s crop of free agents featured a clear top four in the shortstop category. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson were all highly sought after and all ended up securing deals well into nine-figure territory. There was a steep drop to the fifth best option, Elvis Andrus. Though there were many teams who expressed interested in the “Big Four” that ended up missing out, none have made a pivot to Andrus as a backup plan thus far. With just three weeks remaining until Spring Training begins, Andrus is still unsigned.

The 34-year-old Andrus has 14 years of MLB experience, having debuted with the Rangers as a 20-year-old back in 2009. He spent many years with Texas, hitting at a below-average level but still proving to be a valuable player via his speed and defense. In the 11 seasons from 2009 to 2019, he hit just 73 home runs and walked in just 7.3% of his plate appearances, but he also struck out at just a 13.6% rate. His batting line in that time was .275/.331/.373 for a wRC+ of 86, indicating he was 14% below league average. However, he also stole 302 bases and also graded very well on the dirt. Defensive Runs Saved had him just a hair above average, but Ultimate Zone Rating gave him a score of 28.2, the fifth-highest among shortstops in that time. Outs Above Average, which was only introduced in 2016, graded him at plus-14, which was also fifth-best at the position. Despite the subpar batting, his 30.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs was the second-most of all shortstops in that timeframe, trailing only Troy Tulowitzki.

Andrus had a down year in the shortened 2020 campaign and was traded to the A’s prior to 2021. He ended up having another typical season for him, hitting at a 74 wRC+ level but stealing 12 bases and getting some good grades for his work on the dirt. That led to him accumulating 1.6 fWAR on the year. In 2022, Andrus actually had a better season, despite being released by the A’s in the summer. That release seems to have been financially motivated, as Andrus had a slightly complicated finish to his contract. The 2022 season was the final guaranteed year of the extension he signed with the Rangers back in 2013. There was also a $15MM club option for 2023 but it would become a player option if Andrus was traded at some point and also logged 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus was getting regular playing time with the rebuilding A’s and was well on his way to meeting that plate appearance threshold, but they instead released him in August. Andrus signed a new contract with the White Sox who needed a shortstop replacement for the injured Tim Anderson, eventually getting to 577 plate appearances on the year. Because he signed a new contract with the White Sox, the option was a moot point. He finished the year with a .249/.303/404 batting line and a wRC+ of 105. Thanks to his 18 steals and shortstop defense, he was worth 3.5 fWAR on the season between the two clubs.

Despite that solid platform year, Andrus lingers on the market. It’s probable that clubs are a bit skeptical of the 2022 output since Andrus hit .255/.302/.360 over the four prior seasons — but even that diminished version of Andrus was worth 4.3 fWAR in 419 games. Many teams still have shortstop deficiencies, and Andrus could also potentially help out teams that are weak at second base. He’s never played on the other side of the bag but expressed a willingness to do so last year with the White Sox when there was a possibility Anderson could return from the IL and retake the shortstop position. Despite the lack of experience at the position, many shortstops have found it easy to make the transition to second, which is considered a less-demanding spot.

Even with various qualities he could bring to a club, the market for Andrus has seemingly been quiet. The primary public link has been to the Red Sox, in the wake of Trevor Story requiring internal brace surgery on his elbow. Given that the club also lost Bogaerts to the Padres, they are now doubly lacking in the middle infield. Since then, they’ve signed Adam Duvall to hopefully be their everyday center fielder, thus moving Enrique Hernández to shortstop. Hernandez has only ever had part-time work at the position but recently expressed his excitement about a lengthier stint there, appearing on NESN during the club’s Winter Weekend festivities. With Christian Arroyo playing second base, it’s possible the Sox consider themselves set, but Duvall has never been a full-time center fielder and the same goes for Hernandez at short. That’s risky enough as it is, but one injury suddenly makes the situation look even worse. Adding Andrus and moving Hernandez to second or center field would improve the depth significantly. Jon Morosi of MLB Network recently suggested the Sox would like to bring Andrus aboard as a non-roster invitee, but it would register as a surprise if he couldn’t get a modest major league deal elsewhere, given his decent floor and solid year in 2022. The Sox are still more than $15MM shy of the luxury tax, per Roster Resource, and could still fit a modest deal on the books without pushing against it.

There are plenty of other logical suitors. The Diamondbacks currently have Nick Ahmed lined up to be their primary shortstop. Like Andrus, he’s a strong defender who doesn’t hit much, but he’s also been dealing with shoulder problems for years. Those shoulder troubles put him under the knife last year and he was only able to get into 17 games. Geraldo Perdomo was pushed into regular duty to cover for Ahmed but had a poor season on both sides of the ball. The club has an excellent second baseman in Ketel Marte but he’s been battling lingering hamstring issues for the past couple of seasons. A reliable veteran middle infielder would make plenty of sense for the Snakes.

A return to the White Sox would also make sense, even though Anderson should be back in the shortstop position. The second base spot is less clear, with Josh Harrison a free agent and Danny Mendick having signed with the Mets. Romy González, Leury García, Lenyn Sosa and non-roster invitee Hanser Alberto are some of the options that will be in camp next month, though none of those options are particularly inspiring. Andrus already said he’d be willing to play second next to Anderson and perhaps that would be a better option for the Sox than anything else currently on hand.

The Angels seem set to go into the year without a clear-cut shortstop. Luis Rengifo, David Fletcher and Gio Urshela are all possibilities, though none of them are really perfect. All three of them are multi-positional players that have spent much more time at other spots on the diamond. Fletcher probably has the strongest defensive argument to get the job, since he’s been graded a bit above average by all three of DRS, UZR and OAA for his career. However, he’s provided very little at the plate outside of the shortened 2020 season. Also, with Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh coming off injury-marred campaigns, the Halos have question marks at both corner infield spots. Brandon Drury and Urshela can help out, but there’s still sense in further bolstering the depth.

The Marlins have been busy on the trade market lately, sending shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers and acquiring Luis Arraez in a trade sending Pablo Lopez to the Twins. Their current plans seems to be to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field, leaving them with an infield of Jean Segura at third, Joey Wendle at shortstop, Arraez at second base and Garrett Cooper at first. They’ve been recently connected to first baseman Yuli Gurriel, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting that Gurriel could play some second or third base. That’s a risky plan since he’ll turn 39 in June and hasn’t seen meaningful time at either of those positions since 2019. He’s also coming off a pretty poor year at the plate. The club is already taking a big risk on defense by having a center fielder with no experience there and two left-side infield positions manned by players who have spent much more time elsewhere. Arraez has plenty of second base experience but was graded poorly there, and the Twins bumped him to first base before trading him to Miami. Perhaps adding Andrus and moving Wendle back to a utility role would be a more elegant solution than the Gurriel option.

The Astros have Jeremy Peña and Jose Altuve up the middle and certainly don’t need help there. However, they lost their backup/utility option Aledmys Díaz to the A’s in free agency. They could replace him in-house with Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley, but Dubón had a poor year at the plate in 2022 and Hensley has been more of a utility player than a regular at shortstop. The Astros are probably fine if everyone is healthy, but an injury to Peña could make the depth start to feel a little shaky.

The Braves have lost Swanson to the Cubs but haven’t done anything to replace him. It seems the plan is to install 22-year-old Vaughn Grissom in the position and hope he can handle it. There’s risk in that plan as he has just 41 games of MLB experience, including just 10 innings at short. He has much more experience at the position in the minors, but many prospect evaluators have suggested he’s stretched at that spot and should move to second, third or the outfield. Should the Grissom experiment fail, the club’s best backup plan right now is Orlando Arcia. He has lots of shortstop experience with the Brewers but doesn’t hit much and eventually got moved into a utility role.

The Rockies had José Iglesias as their shortstop last year, but he is now a free agent. They seem ready to hand the reins over to prospect Ezequiel Tovar, who made his MLB debut last year. However, he’s still just 21 years old, has played just 80 games above the High-A level and only 14 of those above Double-A. Should he struggle in his first real taste of the majors, their backup plan would be to turn to Alan Trejo or Cole Tucker, neither of whom having much major league success of their own.

There’s also the wild card that is the World Baseball Classic, which takes place in March. Dozens of major league players will be ramping up quicker than they would in a normal spring and diving into competitive action. That creates the possibility that someone will sustain an injury that creates a new opening for Andrus. Some of the middle infielders that are set to participate in the WBC include Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Andrés Giménez and many more.

What do you think? Where do you think Andrus winds up? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: American League Central Favorite

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The American League Central has had three different winners in the past three years. The Twins took the top spot in both 2019 and the shortened 2020 season but have since seen injuries hamper them significantly in the past two campaigns. A resurgent White Sox club took over in 2021, making the playoffs for a second consecutive year for the first time in franchise history. Many thought those two clubs would be battling it out in 2022 but a young Guardians team pulled off a surprise upset as both the Twins and Sox were snakebit by poor health. During that time, both the Royals and Tigers have been struggling to come out of rebuilds.

With just over three weeks until pitchers and catchers report, how much has the picture changed this offseason? There’s are still a few unsigned free agents and some trades could always change the picture, but let’s take a look at where things stand now.

Cleveland Guardians – 2022 Record: 92-70, projected 2023 fWAR: 45.1

The Guardians were the youngest team in baseball last year and expectations were fairly modest at this point one year ago. However, they snuck up on everyone and took the crown. Many will debate whether it was sustainable or a fluke, but they’ve gone into the offseason in a good position to repeat. Since so much of the roster was young and controllable, their most notable free agents were Austin Hedges and Bryan Shaw. That means the vast majority of the club that won 92 games last year will be back, with plenty more exciting prospects potentially joining them throughout the year.

Since they lost so few players at the end of last year, it’s been a fairly quiet winter for the club so far. However, they did make two notable additions by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. Those two should help bolster the squad, and there will also be reinforcements coming from within. Prospects Brayan Rocchio, George Valera and Logan Allen all reached Triple-A last year and could make their MLB debuts this year, with Tanner Bibee, Daniel Espino and others not far behind.

Chicago White Sox – 2022 Record: 81-81, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.6

The Sox won 93 games in 2021 and were picked by many for a repeat in 2022. Unfortunately, many of their lineup regulars spent significant time on the injured list or disappointed or both. The rotation got huge results from Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto but the rest of the rotation dealt with various ailments and slumped when on the mound. Manager Tony La Russa also dealt with health issues down the stretch and decided not to return to the dugout for 2023, leading to the hiring of Pedro Grifol.

They lost Cueto in free agency, along with their long-time fan favorite José Abreu. It’s hoped that Andrew Vaughn can come in from the outfield and take over for Abreu at first, which should at least help the team by subtracting his awful defense on the grass. Andrew Benintendi was signed to take over one of the outfield spots in Vaughn’s absence while Mike Clevinger was signed to replace Cueto in the rotation. It’s a fairly similar roster to the ones that won 93 games two years ago and 81 games last year. Better health might be enough to get them back to the 2021 form, but they’ve already lost their closer for an undetermined amount of time with Liam Hendriks starting treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

Minnesota Twins – 2022 Record: 78-84, projected 2023 fWAR: 42.0

After two straight divisions titles in 2019 and 2020, it’s been two disappointing campaigns in Minnesota. A mountain of injuries kept them below .500 in each of the two most recent campaigns. They were also facing the loss of a superstar this winter as Carlos Correa opted out of his contract and seemed unlikely to return. He then underwent one of the most surprising trips through free agency in recent memory, agreeing to a 13-year deal with the Giants that was later scuttled when the club grew concerned by the long-term health of his right leg. Correa then agreed to a 12-year deal with the Mets, though that agreement was also kiboshed by the medicals. That culminated in Correa coming back to Minnesota on a six-year guarantee with four vesting options.

Getting Correa back is a nice coup for the Twins but it still means they’ve effectively ended up back where they started. Christian Vázquez was signed to replace the departing Gary Sánchez and they’ve also taken a gamble on a Joey Gallo bounceback, but the roster currently looks fairly similar to the one that disappointed last year. Better health alone could get them right back into the race and they hired a new head athletic trainer to try to help in that department. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if injuries were an issue again since many of their key players appear to be prone to IL trips.

Detroit Tigers – 2022 Record: 66-96, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.0

The Tigers were a popular sleeper pick for a postseason berth about this time last year. They had many exciting prospects on the cusp of their debuts, including Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. They decided the time was right to strike by signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez, as well as upgrading via trade. Unfortunately, just about everyone on the roster had a disappointing season, especially on offense. The team hit just .231/.286/.346 for a wRC+ of 81 that was dead last in the majors. Their collective 110 home runs was also last and 17 behind the nearest team.

It seems like 2023 will be about figuring out how to proceed. The club fired general manager Al Avila and brought in Scott Harris as president of baseball operations. Since then, they’ve traded away a couple of relievers in Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto while also signing a couple of starters to one-year deals in Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen. It seems the all-in approach is on hold until they figure out which parts of their roster to build around.

Kansas City Royals – 2022 Record: 65-97, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.7

The Royals have finished below .500 in each of the past six seasons. Their attempted rebuild was failing to bear fruit, which led to major shakeups this winter. Both manager Mike Matheny and president of baseball operations Dayton Moore were fired, with Matt Quatraro now in the skipper’s chair and J.J. Picollo the chief baseball decision maker. The roster changes have been fairly modest so far this winter, with Zack Greinke the most notable departure, though he’s still a free agent. The additions include Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough and Aroldis Chapman.

The club has some exciting young players in Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez, but many of their top draft choices have gone to pitchers that have disappointed thus far. Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan and Asa Lacy were all taken in the first or second round of the draft and haven’t yet delivered much to be excited about. However, Brady Singer showed in 2022 that the narrative can be flipped. Turning young players into viable big leaguers is key for a club that doesn’t throw around piles of cash in free agency. The recent lack of success in that regard has hurt them and they’ll need to do better somehow.

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While the Tigers and Royals seem likely to be using this year to evaluate younger players, the other three clubs all have a plausible path to winning the division. The Guardians are reigning champs and have added Bell to give them some extra thump. The Sox have stars like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Dylan Cease but just need everyone to stay healthy. It’s a similar story for the Twins who have elite players like Correa and Byron Buxton but need to keep them and others off the injured list. The three clubs are separated by just 4.5 projected WAR, according to FanGraphs, which points to an exciting battle in the upcoming campaign.

What do you think? Can the Guardians repeat or will one of their competitors surpass them? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: The NL East Favorite

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The National League East is shaping up as one of baseball’s more competitive divisions in 2023. The defending champion Braves, Mets and Phillies have all made big moves to bolster their already strong rosters, while the Marlins will lean on a quality rotation to try and be competitive. The Nationals are, of course, in full rebuild mode and won’t be among the division’s best this year.

There’s still a chance of one or two significant moves to be made in this division. It’s been reported that Miami has made four of their starting pitchers available in trades, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ship out a starter to bring in an offensive upgrade, possibly an outfielder.

Nonetheless, let’s take a look at each team’s off-season to see how they stack up in this division heading into the new season (teams listed in last year’s standings order).

Atlanta Braves (101-61)

In: C Sean Murphy, LHP Lucas Luetge, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Eli White, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Joe Jimenez.

Out: SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Darren O’Day, RHP Luke Jackson, OF Adam Duvall, C William Contreras, C Manny Pina.

The Braves big splash of the off-season was their trade for Murphy. In typical Braves fashion, they wasted little time in extending him as well, signing him to a six-year, $73MM pact to lock him in as their catcher of the future. The Braves weren’t struggling at catcher, but the arrival of Murphy is still an upgrade over Contreras and Pina, who were both shipped out in the deal. He’ll join a lineup that is largely the same as the one that won 101 games last season. The big hole remains at shortstop and in left field. Swanson departed for the Cubs in free agency, and the team could either rely on Orlando Arcia or rookie Vaughn Grissom to take over. Eddie Rosario was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2022, but the Braves are paying him $9MM this year and it seems likely he’ll be back as the starter in left. Luplow could get some opportunities to take the starting job on his new team, but he posted a wRC+ of just 78 last season.

In the rotation, Max Fried will be back to lead a starting corp that also features Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and veteran Charlie Morton. A wretched run of Achilles injuries meant Mike Soroka has only made three starts in the past three seasons, but he’s back and if he can stay fit and return to his 2019 performance he gives the Braves a quality fifth option. The acquisitions of Luetge and Jimenez gives the Braves another couple of quality relief arms to cover the departure of Jansen in free agency.

All told it’s a quality roster that doesn’t appear to be weaker the 2022, but will it be enough to hold off other teams in the division?

New York Mets (101-61)

In: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Zach Greene, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kodai Senga, C Omar Narvaez, SS Danny Mendick, RHP Stephen Ridings, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham.

Out: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP, Seth Lugo, RHP Trevor May, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Taijuan Walker, 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Mychal Givens, C James McCann.

The Mets effectively had to overhaul their rotation and bullpen this winter, after a series of major departures in both areas. In a fashion befitting the Steve Cohen-era Mets, they did so in expensive fashion. The Mets quickly offset the departures of deGrom, Bassitt and Walker by signing Verlander, Quintana and Senga to big deals and ensuring their rotation is at least as strong as last year. In the bullpen they re-signed Adam Ottavino, brought in David Robertson and made a series of smaller trades and waiver claims to rebuild their relief group.

Offensively, the Mets didn’t have too many moves to make. The big hole was in the outfield, but the team addressed that by bringing back Brandon Nimmo on an eight-year, $162MM deal. They came close to adding Carlos Correa, but that move broke down over the much-publicized medical concerns. Correa would’ve certainly been a boost to their offense, but they’re still in a good spot without him. They could probably still do with another outfielder, and it’s been reported that they’re interested in the remaining free agent options there (Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall etc).

The Mets led the East for the majority of 2022 and they’ll again be up there in ’23. Perhaps one more major move (like Correa) would’ve sealed them as division favorites, but they’re still in a very good spot as is.

Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)

In: LHP Gregory Soto, INF Kody Clemens, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Matt Strahm, SS Trea Turner, OF Jake Cave,

Out: OF Matt Vierling, INF Phil Maton, C Donny Sands, INF Jean Segura, RHP Noah Syndergaard, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Chris Devenski, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP David Robertson, RHP Zach Eflin, RHP Corey Knebel.

The Phillies went all the way to the World Series in 2022, but they still finished 14 games back of the Braves and Mets in the division so had a bit of work to do to try and close that gap going into this season. The addition of Turner gives them a superstar at the top of their lineup alongside Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and co. If youngsters Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can take a step forward at the plate this year they’ll have a much deeper lineup. They’ll hope they can do enough to stick with the Braves and Mets in the first half of the season, before welcoming back star Bryce Harper from injury at some stage mid-season.

On the pitching side of things, Walker slots in as a quality third option behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the rotation. The bullpen lost a number of players this winter, but the additions of Strahm, Soto and Kimbrel to a group that already has Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado and Andrew Bellatti should make that area of the team a strength in season.

All told, the Phillies do look a better unit than they were to start 2022, but it remains to be seen whether or not that’ll be enough to make up 14 games on the Braves and Mets – who certainly haven’t taken a step backwards themselves this winter.

Miami Marlins (69-93)

In: INF Jacob Amaya, INF Jean Segura, OF Jake Mangum, RHP JT Chargois, SS Xavier Edwards, RHP Johnny Cueto.

Out: SS Miguel Rojas, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham, 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Nick Neidert.

The Marlins have had a quiet off-season, but they could be one of the busiest teams in all of baseball, let alone the NL East, between now and the start of the season. That’s because they’ve reportedly made four of their starters – Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo – available in trades. That speculation has only intensified in the wake of them agreeing to a deal with veteran starter Johnny Cueto.

As such, it makes sense to start with a look at their rotation as things stand. Sandy Alcantara isn’t going anywhere and he’ll be back to lead the rotation after winning the Cy Young award in 2022. Beyond Alcantara will be Cueto and then some combination of the four previously mentioned starters. The fact team also has Sixto Sanchez returning as well as Braxton Garrett available shows how deep their rotation options are, but also that they could feasibly deal two starters and still be in a good position in the rotation. In any event, pitching should be a strength for the Marlins in 2023.

Presumably any trade of a starter would be to add a bat to their lineup. The signing of Segura likely filled out their infield, but the team could certainly do with an outfield upgrade. Bryan Reynolds is the highest profile option there, but other options on the could include Max Kepler or a free agent addition such as Pham or Duvall.

The Marlins do look capable of topping last year’s 69-win total as is, but it’d be interesting to see how they’d go with a deeper lineup, and whether or not a swing-for-the-fences-type move such as trading for Reynolds would propel them into the Wildcard conversation.

Washington Nationals (55-107)

In: OF Corey Dickerson, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Jeter Downs, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Stone Garrett, 3B Jeimer Candelario.

Out: 1B/DH Luke Voit, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Will Harris, 2B Cesar Hernandez, RHP Joe Ross, DH Nelson Cruz, LHP Sean Doolittle, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Tommy Romero, RHP A.J. Alexy.

After eight-straight winning seasons between 2012-19 culminated in a championship in 2019, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode. They lost 107 games in 2022, and wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose a similar amount in 2023. While the new schedule calls for fewer divisional matchups, the Nats certainly won’t be helped by regularly playing in a division with a number of quality teams.

Offensively, the Nationals will look for contributions from youngsters CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz – two players they’ll hope to build their next playoff roster around. They’ve also brought in a couple of cheaper bounceback candidates in Smith and Candelario, and both could turn themselves into trade chips at the deadline. It’s a similar story on the pitching side, where they’ll hope Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli can show they can be long-term rotation pieces for the team.

While the Nationals are the clear favorite to prop up the group, it should be an interesting battle in the NL East, particularly with the Braves, Mets and Phillies. What do you think? Who will finish top of the East? Have your say in the poll below.

MLBTR Poll: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter

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Four of the Blue Jays’ five starting jobs are set. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both had great seasons last year and will be back in 2023. José Berríos is coming off a disappointing season but has a strong track record and six years left on his extension, making him a lock on another spot. Chris Bassitt will also be in there after the club agreed to give him $63MM over three years this winter, in addition to surrendering a draft pick and international bonus space because Bassitt rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.

The final spot is less certain, however, with a few potential options that could step up and take the job. Hyun Jin Ryu is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could be back around the All-Star break, though that’s still an estimate at this point. Someone will have to take the fifth spot for at least the first half. Even if Ryu does meet that timeline and comes back for the second half, it’s possible that an injury to one of the other pitchers creates a continued need for another arm. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the candidates.

Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi is probably considered the frontrunner for the fifth starter right now, just based on experience. After years of strong work in Japan, Kikuchi came over to North America by signing with the Mariners prior to 2019. He spent three years with Seattle, posting some intriguing but inconsistent results.

He reached free agency after 2021 and signed a three-year, $36MM deal with the Jays. He made 2o starts last year but got bumped to the bullpen after registering a 5.25 ERA in that time. He’d go on to toss 18 1/3 innings in the bullpen with a slightly better 4.91 ERA, though the underlying numbers were more encouraging. His 24.5% strikeout rate as a starter jumped up to an incredible 39.8% rate as a reliever, while his control also improved. He posted a 13.2% walk rate in the rotation but walked just 10.8% of batters faced out of the ’pen. A .371 batting average on balls in play as a reliever perhaps helped to push his ERA up, with his 4.15 FIP and 2.28 xFIP suggesting he deserved better, though it’s also possible he was just getting hit hard.

That’s a small sample size but it perhaps suggests there’s a chance Kikuchi has a nice floor as a left-handed reliever if he eventually gets pushed out of the rotation for good. However, it’s also possible he gets another chance to start since he’s the most experienced of this bunch, turning 32 in June. He can at least bring some velocity, as he averages around 95 mph on his fastball, one of the best such marks among left-handed starters in the game. But it doesn’t seem to be a challenge for big league hitters, as Kikuchi ranked in the first percentile last year in terms of barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocity. He has a 5.02 ERA through 466 1/3 MLB innings at this point and will have to figure out a way to get better results. Even if he gets the fifth starter job out of Spring Training, he should have other guys on his heels throughout the season.

Mitch White

White, 28, was a second round pick of the Dodgers in 2016 and had been a well-regarded prospect in the years after that. He’s spent the past three years without a firm role, frequently being optioned to the minors and recalled to the majors as needed, making starts but also relief appearances.

In 2021, he made 21 appearances in the majors, including four starts. He tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA, getting grounders at a 47.7% rate while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 8.6% of them. Things went even better in 43 2/3 innings in the minors, with White posting a 1.65 ERA, with a 30.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.

In the first few months of 2022, White only made a couple of Triple-A appearances, spending most of his time with the big league club. He made 10 starts and five relief appearances, logging 56 innings. He had a solid 3.70 ERA and 8% walk rate, though his strikeout rate dipped to 19.8%. The Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline but the switch didn’t help his results. He made 10 appearances for the Jays, including eight starts, and posted a 7.74 ERA in that time. His walk and ground ball rates stayed around average but his strikeout rate fell even further to 15.3%.

Despite that rough start to his Toronto tenure, there’s plenty to like in White overall. He was in the 79th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate, 77th in barrel rate and 63rd in average exit velocity. His .276 BABIP as a Dodger and .368 mark as a Blue Jay explain the different results somewhat. All of the advanced metrics liked his Toronto work much better than that huge ERA, including a 3.76 FIP, 4.68 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA. White is now out of options so the Jays will have to keep him in the bullpen as a long man if he doesn’t snag the rotation job, but he has five years of control remaining and should get some starting opportunities whenever the circumstances allow.

Nate Pearson

Pearson, 26, arguably has the most upside of anyone on this list. Selected by the Jays in the first round of the 2017 draft, he posted great results in the minors and shot up prospect rankings. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the game by the start of 2018 and he got as high as #7 in 2020.

Unfortunately, injuries have stalled Pearson out since then, as he hasn’t been able to throw 50 innings in any of the past three seasons. Elbow tightness limited him to 18 innings in 2020, plus two more in the postseason. The following year, he dealt with a groin strain and a shoulder impingement, then underwent surgery on a sports hernia at season’s end. Between the majors and minors, he tossed 45 2/3 innings on the year. In 2022, his early season ramp-up was delayed by mononucleosis and he then suffered a lat strain while rehabbing. He was only able to throw 15 1/3 innings in the minors, though he was healthy enough by the end of the year to play in the Dominican Winter League. He tossed 12 innings for Tigres del Licey without allowing an earned run, striking out 36.4% of batters faced.

The fact that Pearson finished the year healthy and dealing in winter ball is encouraging, but it’s hard to expect much from him in the immediate future. He might still be a big league starter someday, but after three straight seasons of injuries and scattered appearances, it’s probably unwise to expect him to suddenly jump to the range of 150 innings in 2023. When he was last healthy for an extended stretch, he pitched 101 2/3 minor league innings in 2019 with a 2.30 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. The talent is clearly there but his workload capacity is an unanswered question.

Thomas Hatch

Hatch, 28, was a third round pick of the Cubs in 2016 but came to the Jays in a 2019 deadline deal that sent David Phelps to Chicago. Hatch had an encouraging major league debut in 2020, tossing 26 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA. However, the last couple of seasons have been a struggle, with Hatch posting middling results in the minors and only getting into four big league games between the two campaigns. In 2022, he made a single start for the Jays and allowed 10 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. In 131 Triple-A innings, he had a 4.67 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s still on the 40-man and has another option year left, but he’s likely just an emergency starting candidate unless he takes a step forward this year.

Bowden Francis

Francis, 27 in April, was a seventh-round selection of the Brewers in 2017 but came to the Jays in the 2021 Rowdy Tellez trade. He was added to the Jays’ roster in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, Francis scuffled last year, despite a scoreless MLB debut that lasted 2/3 of an inning. He tossed 98 1/3 innings in the minors with a 6.59 ERA, getting outrighted off the roster in June.

However, Francis suited up for winter ball, joining Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico. That stint has gone extremely well for him, with Francis making nine starts with a 1.51 ERA over 35 2/3 innings. He’s struck out 47 of the 136 batters he’s faced for an excellent 34.6% rate. He’s still a long shot to earn a spot with the Jays since he’s no longer on the 40-man, but he could be an interesting wild card in this deck.

Yosver Zulueta

The Blue Jays picked up some extra international bonus pool money by trading Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr. and used that to sign Zulueta out of Cuba in June of 2019, just before the signing period which began in July of 2018 was set to conclude. At that time, Zulueta had already been clocked at 98 mph, per a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Since then, Zulueta’s rise has been stalled by a couple of factors. He required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing and spent 2020 rehabbing. In 2021, he faced one batter before tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, wiping out the rest of that year. In 2022, finally healthy, Zulueta had a breakout year in the minors, going from Low-A to High-A to Double-A and then Triple-A. He posted a combined 3.72 ERA over 55 2/3 innings, striking out 33.9% of batters faced while walking 12.9% of them.

At the end of the year, the Jays added Zulueta to the 40-man to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft and Baseball America ranked him the second-best prospect in the system, trailing only the pitcher below him in this article. Zulueta is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate solution for the Jays. After some extended injury time, he still needs to build up his workload and refine his command. But once he does, he has a triple-digit heater that headlines a four-pitch mix. He turns 25 his month and has a full slate of options, suggesting there will be no rush to push him into the big league rotation. But as the Jays recently showed with Manoah, they can be aggressive with young hurlers once the pitcher shows himself ready.

Ricky Tiedemann

Tiedemann, 20, was selected by the Jays in the third round of the 2021 draft. In 2022, he began the year in Low-A and then jumped to High-A and Double-A in his age-19 season. He tossed 78 2/3 innings over those three levels with a 2.17 ERA, striking out 38.9% of batters faced while walking 9.6% of them.

That performance led to him shooting up prospect rankings last year. As mentioned, BA now considers him the best prospect in the system, with Gabriel Moreno having been traded to the Diamondbacks in the Daulton Varsho deal. They also currently have him ranked the #28 prospect in the entire league, with MLB Pipeline similarly bullish by ranking him #33.

Like Zulueta, Tiedemann is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate option for the Jays. He’s still incredibly young and won’t be Rule 5 eligible until December of 2025. However, since he reached Double-A last year, there’s a chance he’ll be knocking on the door this year.

External Addition

It’s also possible that the Jays look outside the organization to find someone they like better than any of these options. The club has reportedly shown interest in Johnny Cueto, suggesting they could add a short-term veteran to take over and push everyone else down the depth chart. Cueto seems to have plenty of interest, with the Reds, Marlins and Padres among those who seem to be in the mix. If the Jays miss on him, some other remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. If the Jays are willing to swing another trade, the Marlins have plenty of arms available, the Mariners seem to have some openness to dealing Chris Flexen, while the Brewers seem stacked in the rotation and could consider trading someone like Adrian Houser.

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What do you think? Which of these guys will make the most starts for the Jays in 2023? Have your say in the poll below!

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MLBTR Poll: American League West Favorite

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The Astros have won the division title in the American League West in each of the past five full seasons. They also reached the ALCS in each of those years, along with the shortened 2020 campaign. There hoisted the World Series trophy twice in that time, including just a few months ago. However, their rivals have been aggressive in trying to load up to chase them in 2023 and it now seems like four out of the five clubs seem like legitimate contenders.

There’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, meaning there’s still time for some aggressive transactions that will further change the calculus. But much of the heavy lifting of the offseason appears to be done. Most of the top free agents are off the board, with guys like Jurickson Profar, Michael Wacha and Andrew Chafin the top remaining options. Those are fine players that could certainly help a team but they wouldn’t be franchise-altering additions. There’s also the trade market, which could theoretically see Bryan Reynolds on the move. The Rangers are reportedly interested in him, but so are many other teams and the Pirates have continued to hold firm to an asking price that seems to be quite high.

Whether there are significant moves still to come or not, let’s look at where the clubs stand now, starting with the reigning champs.

Houston Astros – 2022 record: 106-56, projected 2023 fWAR: 48.2

There’s not much doubt about the Astros at this point. As mentioned, they’re enjoying an incredible run of success. Going into the winter, they lost some significant players to free agency, the most notable of which was Justin Verlander. The club hasn’t done anything to supplant him thus far, which is a defendable but risky move. The rotation has plenty of solid options without Verlander, with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown on the roster. However, Verlander is the reigning Cy Young winner after tossing 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA last year. Subtracting that kind of performance would have an impact on any club.

On the position player side, they lost Christian Vázquez, Jason Castro, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Aledmys Díaz to free agency. They’ve since re-signed Brantley and added José Abreu. Overall, the team is still going to be good, but is it enough to hold off the others? FanGraphs certainly thinks so, giving them the highest projected wins above replacement on their depth charts, but there are three clubs within striking distance.

Seattle Mariners – 2022 record: 90-72, projected 2023 fWAR: 43.5

The Mariners finally broke through in 2022, earning a Wild Card spot and reaching the postseason for the first time since 2001. That snapped the longest active postseason drought in the majors, a dishonor that now falls to the Tigers and Angels, who each last qualified for the playoffs in 2014.

This offseason, they have been fairly quiet in terms of free agency, with reliever Trevor Gott marking their only signing so far. They have made some notable trades, however, as is their wont. They acquired slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays, sending reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko the other way. They also acquired Kolten Wong from the Brewers, sending Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee. Hernández and Wong will essentially replace two of the club’s most significant free agent departures in Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier.

The Hernández/Wong pairing could certainly act as an upgrade over Haniger/Frazier, but probably not a huge one. If the club is going to catch the Astros, it will likely have to come from gains made by players already on the roster. Having a full season of Luis Castillo, whom they acquired at the deadline last year, will certainly help. Julio Rodríguez had an incredible rookie season at the age of 21 but could perhaps be even better this year. A breakout from struggling young outfielder Jarred Kelenic would be a tremendous boost. Continued development from young pitchers like George Kirby and Matt Brash would also help.

Los Angeles Angels – 2022 record: 73-89, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.4

The Angels have continued to disappoint despite having two of the best players on the planet on their roster. That was the case again in 2022, as Mike Trout was limited by injury to just 119 games but still produced 6.0 fWAR while Shohei Ohtani produced 3.8 fWAR at the plate and 5.6 on the mound. Still, the club fell out of contention in the summer and never really made it back.

Despite years of falling short of expectations, there are reasons to think 2023 could actually be the year they deliver. They didn’t lose any key contributors to free agency, with players like Michael Lorenzen and Matt Duffy marking some of the most notable departures. They’ve also patched some of the holes that have caused their ship to sink in past years, as a lack of adequate depth has continually wasted the star performances at the top of the roster.

Starting pitching has long been a struggle for the club but the rotation seems like it could be in the best shape in years. 2022 saw encouraging developments from Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, all of whom are slated to return to the club this year. The Halos also supplemented that group by signing Tyler Anderson away from the Dodgers. That gives them a solid front five with Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth on hand as depth options. On the position player side, they’ve added Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela. Those aren’t stars, but the Angels already had stars. They needed adequate role players to supplement their stars and seem to have added some solid options.

Texas Rangers – 2022 record: 68-94, projected 2023 fWAR: 41.9

Of the four plausible competitors in the division, the Rangers will need the biggest turnaround, since 2022 was rough. Turning a 68-win team into a contender in one offseason is no easy feat. But they already did most of the heavy lifting on the position player side last winter, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien on mega deals just prior to the lockout.

The big task of this winter would be upgrading the pitching staff and they have completely overhauled it. They re-signed Martín Pérez while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and trading for Jake Odorizzi. Those five, along with incumbents Jon Gray and Dane Dunning, put the club in a much better position going forward. There are injury concerns scattered throughout that crew, but it’s miles beyond the staff they had last year.

Oakland Athletics – 2022 record: 60-102, projected 2023 fWAR: 29.3

Since the lockout ended in March, the A’s have leaned hard into a rebuild. In just the past ten months, they have traded away Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy. They lost 102 games last year and should be lined up for another rebuild/evaluation season. They’ve made marginal adds by signing Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Drew Rucinski and Trevor May, but the expectation of just about everyone is that they will be in the basement yet again this year.

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The Astros will likely go into the season as the favorite, since they are the reigning World Series champs and have made a few solid moves this offseason. But there are plenty of reasons to think it could be an interesting battle all season long. The Mariners, Rangers and Angels have all made interesting moves this winter and are all within 8 WAR of the Astros according to the projections of FanGraphs. Is this the year the Astros get dethroned?

What do you think? Who will be best in the West in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.

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Which Teams Make The Most Sense For Jurickson Profar?

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Aside from Carlos Correa — who reportedly remains focused on finalizing his deal with the Mets — only three players from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents remain without a contract. There’s just one hitter from the group, as the market for Jurickson Profar has remained surprisingly quiet.

The nine-year MLB veteran had a solid 2022 campaign with the Padres, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs through 658 plate appearances. It was his second above-average offensive season in the last three years, leading the 29-year-old to make the easy decision to accept a $1MM buyout and hit free agency instead of returning to San Diego on a $7.5MM salary.

In the nearly two months since then, however, there’s been virtually zero indication as to his next landing spot. The only team that has been substantively tied to Profar this winter is the Astros, and that was before they re-signed Michael Brantley to split time with Yordan Alvarez between left field and designated hitter.

That leaves only speculative possibilities in trying to narrow down Profar’s landing spot. With Profar mostly limited to left field in recent years after breaking into the majors as an infielder, it’s worth looking at the clubs that got the worst production out of the position. Here are the bottom ten teams in wRC+ from left fielders in 2022:

  • Rangers (47)
  • Angels (67)
  • Marlins (81)
  • Tigers (88)
  • Red Sox (91)
  • A’s (94)
  • Reds (95)
  • Pirates (97)
  • Braves (97)
  • Twins (98)

A few of these clubs have already addressed the issue. The Halos traded for Hunter Renfroe, while the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year contract. The Twins signed Joey Gallo and look likelier to trade away an outfielder than sign another.

Some others are either amidst rebuilds or at least heading into transitional seasons. The A’s, Tigers, Reds and Pirates are all unlikely to contend for a playoff spot in 2023. That doesn’t inherently rule them out on Profar, who’s still fairly young and could sign a multi-year deal. Yet it perhaps lessens the urgency for anyone in that group to try to plug every hole on the roster via free agency. Let’s take a look at the remaining three clubs in that group:

  • Rangers: Texas has had a second straight whirlwind offseason, this time on the pitching staff. They’ve added four starting pitchers as part of their efforts to vault themselves into postseason contention. Left field is the biggest remaining weakness, and Rangers general manager Chris Young has already gone on record about a desire to upgrade. Bubba Thompson and infield/outfield hybrids Brad Miller, Josh Smith and Ezequiel Durán headline the internal options. An addition seems likely, although it remains to be seen if Texas would circle back to Profar, who never met the extremely lofty expectations he’d had as a prospect in the Rangers farm system.
  • Marlins: The Marlins haven’t addressed the outfield this winter, but they added Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler on multi-year pacts last offseason. They could make Profar fit if they moved Soler to a more or less everyday designated hitter role, but another free agent deal for a corner outfielder might be too rich for their taste. That’s particularly true since most of their in-house younger outfielders (i.e. Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz, JJ Bleday) profile better in a corner than they do in center field.
  • Braves: Atlanta has thrown a few darts at left field this offseason. They’ve acquired Sam Hilliard and Eli White in minor trades while signing Jordan Luplow to a modest one-year deal. None of them should stand in the way of an impact left fielder, but Profar’s more of a solid stabilizing veteran than the kind of player who’d change a lineup. Between the trio of new pickups and in-house candidates like Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, Atlanta may feel they’ll find at least one player in the group who can reasonably approximate Profar’s production.

Beyond that trio of teams, a few more stand out as possible fits. The Mariners have looked for ways to address left field. As with Atlanta, they have a hodgepodge of internal candidates for reps (Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore among them) and could feel better patching things together if they don’t land a clearer upgrade via trade. Seattle also has some questions about their remaining spending capacity. The Yankees haven’t attacked left field after losing Andrew Benintendi in free agency. Oswaldo Cabrera and Aaron Hicks are the in-house favorites for playing time.

The Royals have almost no certainty in either corner outfield spot. The Nationals are rebuilding but the Talk Nats blog tweeted a few weeks ago they were looking to bring in some outfield help. The incumbent Padres still make some sense. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made no secret of his longstanding affinity for Profar dating back to their overlapping time in the Texas organization. Fernando Tatis Jr. is likely ticketed for left field work once he returns from his performance-enhancing drug suspension, but adding another bat to the corner outfield/designated hitter mix could free Matt Carpenter up for more multi-positional work off the bench.

What does the MLBTR readership consider the best fits for Profar? Where will he wind up?

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Michael Wacha Sign?

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With Nathan Eovaldi agreeing to a deal with the Rangers, the top remaining starting pitcher on the free agent market (per MLBTR’s rankings) is Michael Wacha. In fact, Wacha is the only remaining starting pitcher left from the Top 50 free agents.

As things stand, the Orioles are the only known team to have checked in on the 31-year-old, who’s coming off his best season in a while for the Red Sox. Wacha made 23 starts for Boston last season, working to a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings. That mark did come with a fairly pedestrian 20.2% strikeout rate, and a solid 6% walk rate. Further, his .260 opponent BABIP suggests a bit of good fortune was involved, and sure enough Wacha’s FIP sat at 4.14 for the season. Nonetheless, it was a far more improved showing than in recent times for Wacha.

Between 2020-21, Wacha tossed 158 2/3 innings for the Mets and Rays, working to a 5.39 ERA. Those two seasons came with better strikeout rates, but his HardHit% were comfortably the highest of his career, as were his home run rates.

Wacha was once a highly touted prospect in the Cardinals system. Drafted 19th overall in 2012, Wacha made his big league debut as a 21-year-old in 2013. Over his first three seasons, he’d toss 353 innings of 3.21 ERA ball, and picked up the 2013 NLCS MVP award for his efforts in that series against the Dodgers. He was never a big strikeout pitcher, but kept the ball on the ground enough, limited the walks and induced enough soft contact to be a highly effective starter.

Those three seasons turned out to comfortably be Wacha’s best, and since the 2016 campaign he’s hurled 800 2/3 innings of 4.42 ERA ball. He’s signed one-year deals the past three seasons, but that solid campaign last season could well see him get a modest two-year guarantee this winter. MLBTR predicted a two-year $16MM pact for Wacha and there certainly seems a good chance he matches that at least, particularly given how well starting pitching has done in free agency this winter.

As for who could be interested, the Orioles are not only the only reported team to have checked in (though there have surely been others), but they do make a lot of sense as well. They have been linked to a number of mid-tier starters this winter, and signed Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM pact. Still, the backend of their rotation has a few options but most are light on MLB experience and adding someone like Wacha would provide them with a bit more stability.

The Angels and Padres were both linked to Eovaldi before he signed with the Rangers, so it makes sense to take a look at them as possible fits for the next best option. The Angels have a pretty solid five-man rotation, with Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Anderson at the top, and southpaws Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez rounding it out. LA has often worked with a six-man rotation to manage Ohtani’s workload though, and Wacha could fit in nicely as another starting option for them.

The Padres, too, appear to have the foundations of a starting five in place, but like the Angels could do with a sixth option. Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are locked in to the first three spots, with Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo penciled in to fill out the rotation. Reports have suggested San Diego plans to utilize the latter two as starters, but both have typically worked as relievers recently, so adding Wacha could give them some insurance against those two failing to lockdown a starting spot.

A return to Boston could also be an option. They do have Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock lined up to handle the starting duties. Yet Sale and Paxton have had a wretched run of injuries (and the team is reportedly listening to offers on Sale), while Whitlock has fared much better in the bullpen. Youngster Brayan Bello is also an option to join the rotation at some point, so there’s not a clear need to add someone like Wacha, but it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he did wind up back in Boston.

While those three teams all have ambitions to compete in 2023, Wacha could also be a fit on rebuilding teams. Even if it requires a two-year deal to sign him, a rebuilding club could hope that he builds off his solid 2022 campaign and turns himself into a valuable trade chip either at the deadline or next winter. At worst, it’s unlikely it’d be an onerous commitment to sign him and even if he doesn’t pitch himself into a trade chip he could still work as an innings-eater for a rebuilding team with a younger roster.

In that case, perhaps a team like the Reds could be amenable to bringing him in if the price is right. Luis Cessa is the veteran in the Reds’ rotation as things stand, but he’s typically worked as a long reliever. Outside of Cessa, it’s a young rotation for all of uncertainty, and adding a veteran like Wacha could solidify things and take a bit of the pressure off their younger arms.

There’s a fair few other possible fits, and any of the Twins, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox could make some sense. Where do you see Wacha signing this winter?

MLBTR Poll: Nathan Eovaldi’s Landing Spot

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Aside from Carlos Correa, whose agreed-upon deal with the Mets is on hold as his camp and the team try to sort out renewed concerns regarding the shortstop’s physical, Nathan Eovaldi is the highest-ranked player from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents who has yet to put pen to paper. He’s also the only unsigned player who’d turned down a qualifying offer.

A few teams have been tied to the former All-Star starter. Last week, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported the Padres, Angels and an unnamed American League East club were in the mix. It doesn’t seem that team is the incumbent Red Sox, as Bradford has suggested on a few occasions this offseason Boston doesn’t appear especially motivated to retain the right-hander.

The Padres have already made a couple rotation moves, re-signing Nick Martinez and adding Seth Lugo on a two-year pact. They’re presently slated for the final two spots behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. There’s still a fair bit of downside in that group, with neither Martinez nor Lugo having much recent track record as an MLB starting pitcher. Both Martinez and Lugo have the chance to opt out of their deals after the 2023 season (albeit only if the Padres first decline a two-year, $32MM club option in Martinez’s case). Darvish and Snell are each ticketed for free agency after next year, leaving Musgrove potentially as the only long-term rotation building block. Headed into his age-33 season, Eovaldi’s not likely to receive a significantly long investment, but he figures to command multiple years and could help solidify the post-2023 rotation in San Diego.

Anaheim already has a solid front five. Shohei Ohtani is the ace, while Tyler Anderson was brought in on a three-year free agent deal to add to the middle of the staff. Patrick Sandoval, José Suarez and Reid Detmers round out the group, with all three young southpaws having pitched well down the stretch in 2022. The Angels have frequently relied upon a six-man staff in the Ohtani era, though. Even if they’re planning to go with a five-man group to maximize Ohtani’s workload next year, there’s merit to bringing in another stable arm who can add some injury insurance.

Aside from San Diego and Anaheim, reports of known suitors for Eovaldi have been few and far between. The Yankees and Blue Jays were linked to him earlier in the winter, but those clubs have since signed Carlos Rodón and Chris Bassitt, respectively. New York now seems likely to be out on Eovaldi entirely, with Rodón joining Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas in the starting five. Toronto could fit for a rotation pickup on paper given the uncertainty associated with José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi/Mitch White at the back end. Yet they’re already projected for a franchise-record payroll, and general manager Ross Atkins told reporters over the weekend he believes the team’s “hefty lifting is done.”

If one assumes the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays aren’t the unnamed AL East team involved in Eovaldi’s market, that’d leave the Rays and Orioles. Baltimore is the better fit, with Tampa Bay having inked Zach Eflin to a $40MM deal to bolster an already quality rotation. Baltimore entered the offseason seeking starting pitching. Thus far, they’ve swapped in Kyle Gibson for Jordan Lyles in the veteran innings eater role but haven’t made the kind of mid-rotation or better addition most had anticipated. Baltimore has some rotation options — i.e. Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez — but it’s a group light on MLB experience.

A few other teams make some sense as speculative possibilities, albeit as imperfect fits. The Rangers have added four starters already this winter, though they could at least consider another arm to push both Jake Odorizzi and Dane Dunning into depth roles. The Twins have ample payroll space amidst a quiet winter. Rotation help isn’t a need per se, but adding Eovaldi would help guard against some of the injury question marks with the in-house staff. The White Sox may not have any additional spending room after their five-year commitment to Andrew Benintendi. If they do have some money to play with, though, another starter would fit on the roster. The Dodgers could look to fortify their rotation with Walker Buehler missing most or all of next season. There’s room on paper for Eovaldi but they’d have to exceed the luxury tax threshold, which they don’t seem eager to do, in order to add him.

Where does the MLBTR readership anticipate Eovaldi winding up?

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Identifying The Best Landing Spots For Dansby Swanson

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Dansby Swanson is the last unsigned position player from MLBTR’s top ten free agents. He’ll be the final of the four top-tier shortstops to come off the board, and his destination will surely be influenced by how the market has already played out.

The Phillies and Giants entered the offseason widely regarded as potential landing spots for the top shortstops, particularly if San Francisco were to wind up missing on Aaron Judge. Few would’ve foreseen the Padres jumping into that mix for Xander Bogaerts, with San Diego taking one of the “big four” off the board and perhaps opening another landing spot for Swanson.

Let’s take a look at the most plausible remaining landing spots.

Best Fits

Cubs

The Cubs met with all four top shortstops at the outset of the offseason, but there’s no indication they’ve wanted to pay the enormous asking prices on any of the other three. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago wrote last night that discussions with Carlos Correa were limited to general outlines of possible financial parameters, with no formal offer being put on the table. Swanson figures to land the lowest deal of the group, perhaps making him a more palatable target for Chicago. Even if Swanson won’t push or exceed $300MM as Correa, Trea Turner and Bogaerts had, he’s likely to surpass $150MM. This would require the largest investment the Cubs have made since signing Jason Heyward seven years ago.

Is Chicago ownership willing to go to that level? They should have the payroll space to do so, as they’re around $157MM in projected 2023 commitments. That’s above where they’ve sat the last two seasons but nowhere near the $200MM+ franchise-record heights from a few years ago. The Cubs are coming off a second consecutive well below-average season, but they’ve continued to maintain they’re not in a rebuild. It’s hard to imagine acquisitions of Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger alone getting a 74-win team back to postseason contention, particularly since they also lost Willson Contreras to free agency. Even adding Swanson to the mix likely leaves them behind the Cardinals and Brewers, but he’s only entering his age-29 season and should still be productive in 2024 and beyond — when the Cubs have a more realistic path to competing. The presence of Nico Hoerner means the Cubs don’t need a shortstop. Second base looks as if it’ll be manned by Nick Madrigal or Christopher Morel, though, and adding Swanson and kicking Hoerner to the other side of the bag would solidify the middle infield.

Twins

The Twins missed on Correa, whose stay in Minneapolis lasted only one year. Their reported ten-year, $285MM bid came up well shy of the 13-year, $350MM contract he eventually received from the Giants. Minnesota finished 78-84 even with Correa, and while better health from their pitching staff should help in 2023, they’re behind the Guardians and White Sox in the AL Central as presently constructed. Pivoting to Swanson is a natural fallback, and Minnesota had already been in touch with his representatives even before officially losing out on Correa.

Minnesota has ample payroll room, as illustrated by their ultimately unsuccessful proposal to Correa. They’re not likely to present Swanson with anywhere near the same offer, but ownership and the front office could allocate much of their remaining space to plugging the shortstop vacancy. The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last month. He’s probably better suited for a utility role on a contender but presently projects as the starting shortstop. Former first overall pick Royce Lewis could factor in midseason. He won’t be ready for Opening Day after tearing the ACL in his right knee for the second time last June. It’s anyone’s guess how much of his athleticism and explosiveness he’ll retain after a second straight massive injury. Even if Lewis comes back strong yet again, he could bounce around the diamond in a multi-positional role if Minnesota were to add Swanson.

Braves

The Braves have publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson, who has been their everyday shortstop for the past six seasons. There’s certainly a fit on the roster. Atlanta looks as if they’d roll with Orlando Arcia and eventually top prospect Vaughn Grissom if Swanson walks. The Braves have had success trusting young players like Grissom in recent years, but he’s not without risk. Prospect evaluators have raised concerns about his defense, and he’s played all of 63 games above High-A. In a division with the Mets and Phillies, the Braves are facing sharp competition to put their best foot forward.

As has been the issue for months, the question about Atlanta is financial. They’re already at franchise-record heights for their player payroll, and their early offseason work has focused on the trade market. The Braves brought in Sean Murphy and Joe Jiménez, leveraging young talent but not taking on any notable salaries. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported last week the Braves and Swanson had had minimal contact since the offseason began, writing their most recent offer would’ve come with an annual salary in the $16-17MM range over six or seven years. That looks extremely light, particularly given the strength of the rest of the shortstop market. The Braves could circle back, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted yesterday that Swanson — a Georgia native — would still like to return to Atlanta. At least as of last week, there was a huge gap to bridge in negotiations, though.

Viable But Longer Shots

Dodgers

The Dodgers have been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason after seemingly not showing significant interest in the other top shortstops. It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for L.A., perhaps in part due to a hope of resetting their luxury tax status by dipping below next year’s $233MM base threshold. That’s not clearly a mandate, but team officials have signaled a desire to integrate some of their highly-touted position player prospects into the mix. The Dodgers presently project for a $201MM competitive balance tax number, so they could squeeze Swanson in while staying below the line as things stand. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote this week, however, they won’t have official clarity on their tax number until the Trevor Bauer suspension is litigated. Gavin Lux is on hand as a potential shortstop option, with Chris Taylor possibly sliding to second base in that scenario.

Red Sox

Like the Dodgers and Twins, the Red Sox lost their star shortstop in free agency. They’re now seeking up-the-middle help and a right-handed bat to balance the lineup. Swanson would knock off those goals in one swoop, and Boston has nearly $40MM in payroll room before hitting the base tax threshold. Like the Dodgers, they’ve been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason. It’d still come as a surprise if they pivot towards a full-fledged pursuit of Swanson after watching Bogaerts depart. They reportedly put forth a six-year, $162MM offer to their incumbent star shortstop. While they may have been willing to go a bit above that, they never seemed interested in matching the $280MM figure laid out by San Diego. That’s understandable, although Swanson’s contract could well beat what Boston had offered Bogaerts. Would the Red Sox make a stronger offer to Swanson than they had to a homegrown star whom they’d repeatedly called their top offseason priority?

Seemingly Unlikely

  • Angels: The Halos have an uncertain middle infield mix and could look outside the organization to pair with David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo and perhaps Gio Urshela in that group. They’ve been fairly active early, taking on around $40MM in 2023 salary to add Urhsela, Hunter Renfroe, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez. None of it has come with a longer commitment than the three years they guaranteed Anderson, though. Does owner Arte Moreno want to add a six-plus year deal to the books when he’s hoping to sell the franchise by Opening Day?
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals were tied to Swanson earlier in the offseason. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested that was likelier to happen only if the Cards landed the catcher they considered a top priority via trade. Instead, they signed the top free agent available, Contreras, for $87.5MM over five seasons. A franchise-record contract for Swanson on top of that feels uncharacteristic for an organization that usually does its hefty lifting via trade.
  • Diamondbacks: The D-Backs could use a shortstop and were loosely linked to Bogaerts earlier in the offseason. They’ve occasionally come out of nowhere to make a major free agent investment (see: Zack Greinke), but they haven’t topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll in either of the last two years. Bringing back Swanson, whom the previous front office initially drafted with the first overall pick in 2015, would make a lot of sense from a roster perspective, but the money probably isn’t lining up.
  • Giants: San Francisco could probably accommodate another notable signing, as they’re presently projected around $27MM below the base luxury tax threshold. They’d likely be able to fit Swanson in while avoiding tax payments, but it feels unlikely after they nabbed Correa. Brandon Crawford and Wilmer Flores give them other options at second and third base. First base, center field and the bullpen all look like greater areas of need.
  • Mariners: At the start of the offseason, the Mariners expressed some willingness to pursue a shortstop with an eye towards kicking him over to second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. They subsequently traded for Kolten Wong instead, which looks as if it’ll rule them out.
  • Mets: The Mets warrant cursory mention on every top free agent at this point given owner Steve Cohen’s aggressiveness. They reportedly at least considered a run at Correa with an eye towards moving him to third base. Swanson isn’t that caliber of hitter, though, and kicking him over to third while displacing Eduardo Escobar, Luis Guillorme and top prospect Brett Baty seems like a stretch.
  • Orioles: The Orioles were reportedly poking around the shortstop market at the start of the offseason. They’ve not actually shown any signs they want to make a major investment this winter, though. With a number of top infield prospects at the MLB level or on the horizon (i.e. Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz), a Swanson pursuit doesn’t seem to in the cards.
  • Padres: San Diego is in Mets territory of warranting a mention on every free agent given their boldness, but the infield is already overloaded after the Bogaerts deal.
  • Yankees: For a second straight offseason, the Yankees haven’t seemed much interested in exploring the top of a loaded shortstop class. They’ve maintained faith in prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to eventually seize that mantle. If they’re going to make another big investment after re-signing Judge, it seems Carlos Rodón is the target.

Note: all salary projections courtesy of Roster Resource

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Poll: Who Will Sign Carlos Rodon?

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Carlos Rodón is the top remaining starting pitcher in free agency and unsurprisingly has many suitors. The Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mets, Orioles and Dodgers have been connected to him at various points throughout the offseason. However, many of those teams have since signed other pitchers, potentially taking them out of the running. Also, the latest report suggests that Rodón and his representatives are looking for a deal of seven years or longer with a guarantee of $200MM or more. That’s well beyond the five years and $140MM that MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason and likely prices out some of those clubs. So, who will actually pull it off? Let’s take a look at the options.

Yankees

It is reportedly Rodón’s preference to make Yankee Stadium his home ballpark and the team is interested in him as well. That’s an excellent starting point but the fit gets more complicated from there. The Yanks would apparently prefer to limit their offers to the four- or five-year range, which is something that would have to be overcome in negotiations. It’s not surprising that the club has concerns about the long-term picture, since the future payrolls are already getting filled in. Aaron Judge is going to be making $40MM per season for the next nine years. Gerrit Cole still has six more years at $36MM per. Giancarlo Stanton has five more years between $25MM and $32MM, along with an option for 2028. Even if the club plans on turning that down at that time, it comes with a hefty $10MM buyout. DJ LeMahieu adds another $15MM per year for the next four seasons.

Even in the short term, there might be issues. There have been reports that the club would like to stay under the third tier of the competitive balance tax, as crossing that line would lead to much higher taxation rates and the club’s top 2023 draft pick moving back 10 spots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $266MM, not too far from the $273MM third tier. Adding a salary near $30MM for Rodón would push them past that line and also past the top tier of $293MM.

From a baseball standpoint, adding another starter makes sense. The club’s rotation currently consists of Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. They could fill in the final slot with Domingo Germán or Clarke Schmidt and be in fine shape, but both Severino and Montas missed significant time with shoulder injuries in 2022. One more arm would bump German and Schmidt into depth roles and provide extra cover for an injury absence, but will they go for a top-of-the-market option like Rodón?

Red Sox

The Red Sox also have some long-term contracts on the books, though at lesser terms than the Yankees. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are each under control for five more seasons, though their combined salaries are just barely over $40MM in most of those seasons. That makes them roughly equal to what the Yanks are paying Judge alone, never mind Cole or Stanton. In the short term, Roster Resource has their CBT figure at $192MM, meaning they could easily add a Rodón-sized salary and stay under the first luxury tax threshold of $233MM, if they so desire.

From an on-field perspective, it also makes sense given their rotation question marks. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Garrett Whitlock has done more bullpen work in his career so far, with only nine starts in the majors at this point. Brayan Bello just debuted in 2022 and made 11 starts of middling quality. Nick Pivetta stayed healthy in 2022 but he’s never posted an ERA better than 4.53. There’s plenty of room for upgrades in there.

However, the Sox just watched their franchise shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, ship off to San Diego. They apparently made a six-year, $160MM offer that was more than $100MM below the $280MM the Padres gave him. It was even below the $189MM MLBTR predicted at the start of the offseason, before spending went wild and it was clear it would take much more than that. After such a half-hearted attempt to secure a beloved franchise icon, are they really going to pivot and put in a harder charge for a new face like Rodón?

Twins

The entire Minnesota offseason has seemed to revolve around their hopes of bringing Carlos Correa back. The club has generally been pretty quiet, apart from acquiring Kyle Farmer as a Correa safety net and signing Christian Vázquez to be their catcher. They reportedly offered Correa ten years and $285MM, but he instead went to the Giants for $350MM over 13 years. Minnesota’s offer was actually a higher average annual value, but it was a significantly lower overall guarantee.

The question now is what their backup plan is. They were willing to five Correa $28.5MM per season, but would they have the same willingness for someone like Rodón? They certainly have the long-term payroll space to do it, as Byron Buxton and Vázquez are the only two players signed beyond the upcoming campaign. Vázquez will get a modest $10MM salary through 2025 while Buxton is only guaranteed $15MM per season through 2028 with various incentives available. In the short-term, the club’s payroll is only at $107MM for 2023, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s Opening Day figure of $134MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

From a baseball perspective, the club has many rotation options and doesn’t strictly need an upgrade. However, Rodón would easily jump to the top of the chart and could allow the club to trade someone else. Currently, their rotation mix consists of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and others. Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and could be back later in the season. Gray and Maeda have reportedly drawn trade interest, which could allow the club to make a splash on Rodón and then use their starters to upgrade elsewhere. The largest contract in franchise history is the $184MM extension they gave to Joe Mauer back in 2010. They were willing to smash that record for Correa but what about Rodón?

Giants

The Giants have been quite aggressive this winter, already handing out a mega deal for Correa as well as smaller but still significant deals for Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. Those latter two deals bolstered their rotation, with Manaea and Stripling now joining Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Jakob Junis as rotation options. That already seems like too many starters, though the club is apparently still in on Rodón.

From a long-term payroll point of view, they could certainly do it. Haniger and Correa are the only contracts on the books by 2025 and Correa the only one beyond that. In the short term, Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $190MM and their CBT figure at $206MM. They are getting near their franchise high payroll of $201MM, per Cot’s, though that was back in 2018. The CBT figure would tiptoe over the $233MM luxury tax line by adding a Rodón-sized deal, but they could pivot and trade one of their other starters to get back under. Wood is making $12.5MM in 2023 before reaching free agency, Cobb $9MM plus an option for 2024, DeSclafani $12MM in each of the next two seasons. Those three would all surely have some degree of trade value, given the high prices for free agent starters this winter. The club is also looking for outfield and catching help, but maybe a Rodón signing could eventually allow them to plug those holes via trade.

Cardinals

Though the Cardinals have been connected to Rodón, it was reported yesterday that they are unlikely to meet his asking price. That’s not exactly shocking as the largest contract in club history is the five-year, $130MM Paul Goldschmidt extension. The most they’ve ever given a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016. To suddenly jump up to $200MM would be quite a surprise. Their payroll for 2023 is also at $164MM, per Roster Resource, which is beyond last year’s figure and a match with their franchise high, per Cot’s. They may be willing to increase payroll this year, but going $30MM beyond their previous record would be a surprise.

The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have a number of rotation options. Their current crop of starters includes Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. There are some injury concerns in there but it’s still a solid group overall, with depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright will retire and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to compete in the National League Central this year. Similar to the Twins and Giants, they could sign Rodón and then flip one of their current pitchers, but the financial situation is probably an obstacle.

Rangers

The Rangers were connected to Rodón as far back as October. At the time, it made perfect sense since the club’s rotation going into the winter consisted of Jon Gray and a bunch of crash test dummies. Since then, however, they have re-signed Martín Pérez, traded for Jake Odorizzi and signed free agents Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney. That group, along with Gray and Dane Dunning, puts the club’s rotation in solid shape, certainly much better than 2022. The club reportedly met with Rodón after the deGrom signing, though that was shortly before the Heaney deal was announced.

The club could certainly sign Rodón and bump Odorizzi into a sixth starter/swingman role until someone gets hurt. However, the club’s CBT figure is currently $204MM, per Roster Resource. Adding Rodón would get them near or above the luxury tax threshold of $233MM. In terms of pure payroll, the club’s current $181MM figure is already more than $15MM beyond their previous franchise record, per Cot’s. Would they be willing to add another $30MM on top of that, when they are still looking for outfield upgrades as well?

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were connected to Rodón in a limited way, though that was before they signed Chris Bassitt. That signing and the club’s other moves have shot the payroll up to record heights and put them into luxury tax territory for the first time. Roster Resource puts their CBT figure just barely over the $233MM line. The $209MM payroll is well beyond last year’s $171MM, their previous high, per Cot’s.

The club’s current rotation would consist of Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and José Berríos, with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White options for the back end. They are reportedly still open for upgrades, though adding a monster deal for Rodón seems unlikely when they are already so far into uncharted territory in terms of the finances. It’s much more likely they search for a more modest upgrade, as they were connected to Johnny Cueto yesterday.

Mets

The Mets reportedly met with Rodón back in late November, but they have since signed Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana. Those three, along with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco, give the club a full rotation. The Mets are reportedly even thinking about trading Carrasco to open the final rotation slot for someone like David Peterson or Tylor Megill.

It would be foolish to completely rule the Mets out on anyone at this point, given that there doesn’t seem to be any limit to their spending. The payroll is already in record territory, with Roster Resource putting them down for $336MM and a CBT figure of $350MM. They are set to be second-time payors and are now paying a 90% tax on all spending since they are way beyond the top CBT line of $293MM. That means signing Rodón to a contract around $30MM per year would actually lead to the club paying about $60MM.

They have larger needs in the bullpen so spending huge money on Rodón doesn’t seem especially likely. However, they were just connected to Correa before he signed with the Giants, so maybe there’s still some big cash left on the pile.

Orioles

The Orioles are the best fit for Rodón in terms of long-term payroll. They have literally no one guaranteed any money for 2024. Of course, many of their players will earn arbitration salaries for that season, but they are committed to nothing. For 2023, Roster Resource pegs their payroll at a meager $52MM, less than what the Mets are set to pay in taxes alone.

The rotation could surely use an extra arm, as it currently consists of Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, Spenser Watkins, Kyle Bradish, Mike Baumann and DL Hall. Those guys all have limited track records and are still works in progress, apart from Gibson who was brought in as a veteran stabilizer. Prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely join the group at some point, as will John Means, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April. But there’s plenty of room for upgrades.

The main argument against a Rodón signing is the track record of the O’s under general manager Mike Elias. The club has been aggressively rebuilding and avoiding long-term commitments. The club’s last free agent signing longer than one-year was for Alex Cobb back in 2018, prior to the hire of Elias. It’s much more likely that they target a lower tier of free agency, in line with their Gibson signing and their reported interest in Michael Wacha.

Dodgers

The Dodgers were connected to Rodón back in November, but they have since agreed to terms with Noah Syndergaard. He slots into a rotation that also features Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, with prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove around as depth. There are injury concerns in there, as Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Syndergaard was healthy in 2022 but it was his first full season back from Tommy John and his velocity didn’t fully return.

It’s not impossible to think that they would add another starter, but they generally prefer short-term deals. They signed Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to one-year deals last offseason and have done the same now with Syndergaard. The last time they signed a pitcher to a deal longer than three years was Brandon McCarthy’s four-year deal going into 2015. There have also been reports that they would like to reset their luxury tax status this year so that they can be a “first-time” payor for 2024. Roster Resource has their CBT number at $201MM. That’s well shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold, but Trevor Bauer is appealing his suspension at the moment. If he gets it overturned, that puts over $30MM back onto that number, taking up the space that they could theoretically use on Rodón. A decision on that is expected in the next month or so. Until they get clarity on that, they might avoid huge commitments.

Mystery Team

Perhaps some team that hasn’t been connected to Rodón in rumors will swoop in and surprise us all. The Rays are never big spenders but were apparently willing to consider splurging on Freddie Freeman last year and Brandon Nimmo this year. The Mariners have been surprisingly quiet this winter and could be open to trading Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. The Cubs have signed Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger this winter but haven’t yet made the big splash many expected. They’ve been often connected to the shortstops and could still go after Dansby Swanson but the rotation has plenty of question marks. The Padres have already spent a bunch but apparently just missed on Bassitt. Do they have one more surprise up their sleeve?

Which of these paths makes the most sense to you? Have your say in the poll below!

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