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Poll: Who Will Lead The League In Stolen Bases?

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By this time of year in each of the previous two seasons, the players who would go on to lead their respective leagues in stolen bases were already atop the leaderboards. As of June 12, 2024, Elly De La Cruz led Brice Turang for the NL lead by 10 steals, while José Caballero led Bobby Witt Jr. for the AL lead by three. De La Cruz would finish the year with an MLB-leading 67 swipes, while Caballero would finish atop the Junior Circuit with 44. The year before, Esteury Ruiz held a comfortable lead in the AL with 31 steals on June 12, and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 28 put him well ahead of the NL competition. Acuña would go on to lead the majors with 73 stolen bases, while Ruiz would lead the AL with 67 of his own.

That being said, there is plenty of season left to play and plenty of stolen base excitement yet to be had. By this day last year, Shohei Ohtani had only stolen 15 bases, putting him on pace for 35 by the end of the year. He famously finished with 59, en route to the first 50-50 season in MLB history. In contrast, Witt was on pace for 44 steals at this time last season. If he’d kept that up, he would have tied for the league lead. Instead, he only swiped 12 more bags over the rest of the season, finishing with a mere 31. With all that to consider, let’s take stock of the stolen base leaderboards and try to figure out who might sit at the top by the end of the year.

Looking to defend his AL stolen base crown, Caballero currently leads the majors with 25 steals. He is one ahead of Oneil Cruz for the MLB lead and four ahead of Witt and Luis Robert Jr. in the AL. So, is the Rays utilityman the clear frontrunner (no pun intended) to lead the AL once again? He’s been running more often this season than last, and he’s been safe at a higher rate. As things stand today, he is the only player in the majors on pace to reach 60 steals. No other AL runner is on pace for more than 50. What’s more, he’s been especially hot as of late, with 16 steals in 17 attempts over the past month.

Yet, if it weren’t for all the bases Caballero has already stolen, I don’t think anyone would peg him as a likely stolen base king. His sprint speed has declined notably in each of the past two seasons, dropping from the 90th percentile in 2023 to the 75th percentile in 2024 and now the 63rd percentile in 2025. Similarly, his average home plate to first base time has increased. This year, 84 qualified runners (per Statcast) have a faster average home-to-first time than Caballero. In addition, he hasn’t “bolted” at all this season. As defined by Statcast, a bolt is any run where the runner’s sprint speed is above 30 feet per second in his fastest one-second window. Caballero bolted five times in 2023 and five times in 2024, but he has yet to bolt at all in 2025. For context, 103 runners have bolted at least once this year, while Witt leads the majors with 47 bolts.

Indeed, Witt is much faster than Caballero in every measurable way. In addition to bolts, Witt leads the majors in sprint speed, while his home-to-first time ranks sixth. (All five players ahead of him are left-handed hitters, which gives them a slight advantage in getting out of the box.) Moreover, Witt is also a vastly superior hitter to Caballero. Not only does that mean he reaches base more often, giving him more chances to steal, but it also means he plays more often and hits higher in the batting order, giving him more chances to reach base. According to Baseball Reference, Witt has already had 121 stolen base opportunities this year, to Caballero’s 64. There’s a good chance that gap will only increase; Witt is underperforming his expected on-base percentage by 25 points this year, while Caballero is overperforming his xOBP by 12 points. The worse Caballero hits, the less likely he is to see playing time in Tampa Bay, while Witt’s spot in the two-hole of the Royals lineup is secure. Caballero has 47 steals to Witt’s 33 over the past calendar year, despite playing less often, typically batting lower in the order, and reaching base at a lower clip. That certainly seems like an argument in Caballero’s favor. On the other hand, it’s impossible to ignore Witt’s superior skill set.

Somewhere in between those two is Robert. His sprint speed ranks in the 89th percentile, while his nine bolts put him among the top 30 runners in the league. He doesn’t run quite as well as Witt, but he’s been faster than Caballero. Still, it’s surprising to see Robert so high on the stolen base leaderboard. He has never stolen more than 23 bags in a season, which means he’s just three steals away from surpassing his previous career high. Robert is keeping pace with Witt and Caballero right now, but he stands out. We’ve seen both of them steal upwards of 40 bags in a season before. We’ve never seen this kind of stolen base prowess from Robert. All the more interesting, he has stolen all these bases despite slumping badly at the plate. His on-base percentage is a career-worst .269, putting him among the bottom 10 qualified hitters in the sport. Due to his low OBP, he has only had 64 stolen base opportunities this year. That’s the same number as Caballero, even though Robert has taken 66 more trips to the plate. In theory, this is a point in Robert’s favor when it comes to his chances to lead the league in steals. Simply put, it’s hard to imagine his OBP will remain this low all season. He’s only two years removed from being a well-above-average hitter, and his xOBP is 43 points better than his actual on-base percentage. If Robert starts reaching base significantly more often and continues to steal at such a high clip, he could blast ahead of Witt and Caballero.

Another AL contender to keep in mind is José Ramírez. The veteran has never led the league in steals, but his 263 career stolen bases rank fourth among active players. He topped 40 steals for the first time last year and has already swiped 20 bags in 2025. That puts him on pace for a career-high 48 in his age-32 season. Finally, Chandler Simpson is a dark horse in the race. The Rays rookie didn’t make his debut until mid-April and has been playing at Triple-A for the past two weeks. Even so, he ranks fifth in the AL with 19 steals this season. Considering he stole those 19 bases in just 35 games, I wouldn’t be all that shocked if the Rays waited to call him up again until after the trade deadline and he still ended up pacing the AL in steals. After all, we’re talking about a guy who swiped 104 bags in the minors in 2024.

The competition is more straightforward in the NL, where three talented young speedsters enjoying strong seasons rank 1-2-3 on the stolen base leaderboard. Oneil Cruz is just three steals ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong for the NL lead, while last year’s stolen base king, Elly De La Cruz, is hot on their tails. Two-time NL stolen base king Trea Turner is close behind in fourth place, while Victor Scott II, arguably the fastest runner in the Senior Circuit, is fifth. All told, those five players are separated by just six steals.

Cruz leads the way with 24 steals, despite having missed a handful of games here and there with minor injury issues. On a per-game basis, he sits comfortably ahead of all qualified NL players, and he’s been successful on all but two attempts. Crow-Armstrong is slightly faster, according to both sprint speed and home-to-first time. However, his on-base skills are poor, which will limit his opportunities to steal. As for De La Cruz, he was faster than either Cruz or Crow-Strong in 2023 and ’24, but he’s been a bit slower this season. That could be due to a minor leg injury he has played through (per reporter Charlie Goldsmith). As he regains strength, perhaps De La Cruz will start stealing at the same pace as last year, leaving everyone else in the dust. At his best, De La Cruz moves faster than Cruz and reaches base at a higher clip than Crow-Armstrong.

Turner and Scott rank just below those three on the stolen base leaderboard, and their names aren’t quite as buzzy. Still, they’re not to be forgotten in this conversation. Turner led the National League in steals in both 2018 and 2021. He is in his thirties, but he remains one of the fastest players in the game. His sprint speed is tied for third among qualified NL runners, while his 42 bolts rank second in the Senior Circuit. He has also received more plate appearances and has a higher OBP than any of Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, and De La Cruz. Meanwhile, Scott is the only NL runner who ranks ahead of Turner in both sprint speed and bolts. His 18 steals are one fewer than Turner’s 19, but his success rate is better; Scott has only been caught once, while Turner has been gunned down on five occasions. Yet, Scott is not the same caliber of hitter as Turner (or as Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, or De La Cruz).

Last but certainly not least, I’d be remiss were I not to mention Ohtani. From this date onward in 2024, Ohtani stole 44 bases. If he were to do that again, he would finish with 55 steals this year, while Cruz is currently on pace to finish with 56. Another second-half surge from Ohtani is unlikely, to be sure, but it’s a possibility worth mentioning. We know he’s capable of pulling it off.

So, who do MLBTR readers think will lead the AL and NL in stolen bases this season? Have your say in the polls below:

Photos courtesy of Philip G. Pavely and Joe Camporeale, Imagn Images.

Poll: Which Team Has Been Hit The Hardest By Injuries This Year?

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Injuries are an inevitable part of baseball. According to the RosterResource Injury Report, there are currently 229 players on major league injured lists. That’s just under one-third as many as there are on active rosters. It works out to about seven or eight injured players per team. Some injuries are predictable or preventable, while others are the result of pure bad luck. In any case, no team can avoid using the IL entirely, but the most successful clubs are those that can minimize injuries, like last year’s surprisingly successful Tigers and Royals, or find ways to overcome them, like last year’s World Series champion Dodgers. As the 2025 season inches closer to its halfway mark, does one team stand out as the most affected by injuries this year?

The most obvious answer is the Dodgers, who currently have 14 players (all pitchers) on their major league injured list, the most of any team. Since the beginning of the season, the Dodgers have placed 22 players on the IL, which is the highest total in the National League and the second-highest in the majors, behind only the White Sox (23). All of those players have combined to miss 960 games in 2025, according to the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger. That is far and away the highest total in the sport. The Mets rank second with 695 cumulative games missed. The 265-game gap between the Dodgers and Mets is roughly the same size as the gap between the second-ranked Mets and 20th-ranked Mariners (441 games missed). If that’s not enough to illustrate just how many players the Dodgers have lost to the IL, consider this: They have already lost more player games to injury through 68 games in 2025 than a handful of teams lost throughout all of 2024.

What’s more, it’s not like we’re just talking about injuries to depth arms or bench bats. Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell has been out with shoulder inflammation since his second start of the season. All-Star starter Tyler Glasnow hasn’t pitched since the end of April. He, too, is nursing a shoulder injury, as is rookie phenom Roki Sasaki. Several key bullpen pieces are out as well, including Blake Treinen (forearm tightness) and Evan Phillips (Tommy John surgery). And of course, none of the IL stats I cited above include Shohei Ohtani, who has not been able to pitch so far this year.

Yet, in terms of total value taken away by injuries since the start of the 2025 campaign, Baseball Prospectus estimates the Dodgers have only lost the third-most projected WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player). WARP is only one way to measure value, and projected WARP is just that: a projection. Still, it’s worth considering that just because the Dodgers have lost the most games to the IL, they haven’t necessarily lost the most value.

The two teams that are ever-so-slightly ahead of the Dodgers in projected WARP lost to injury are a pair of AL East rivals: the Yankees and Orioles. The Yankees are without ace Gerrit Cole, who underwent Tommy John surgery in March. Luis Gil, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year winner, has also been out all year as he nurses a lat strain. On the position player side, elbow injuries have kept designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton off the field all year, though he recently started a rehab assignment. More Yankees who have missed time at some point include Jazz Chisholm Jr., Clarke Schmidt, Fernando Cruz, DJ LeMahieu, and Marcus Stroman, while closer Luke Weaver recently landed on the IL with a hamstring strain.

As for the Orioles, they have been without Grayson Rodriguez all year. He first went on the IL with elbow inflammation before suffering a lat strain that set him back further. Albert Suárez has been out since his first appearance of the season with shoulder inflammation, while Zach Eflin also missed significant time early in the year. In terms of position players, the Orioles are currently without Tyler O’Neill, Ryan Mountcastle, Gary Sánchez, and Jorge Mateo. Others who have missed time this season include Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Cedric Mullins, and Gunnar Henderson.

Ultimately, all three of the Dodgers, Yankees, and Orioles are neck and neck in value lost to injury, according to Baseball Prospectus. However, I have to wonder if anyone can truly argue the Yankees and Dodgers have been “hit hard” by injuries this year. They’re each in first place in their respective divisions and rank among the top five MLB teams in winning percentage and run differential. According to both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, they have the highest playoff and World Series odds in their respective leagues. Despite all the players they are missing (or have missed at some point), they are thriving. I would make a similar argument about the Mets. They have also lost their fair share of players to injury, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and A.J. Minter. Nonetheless, the Mets have the best record in the National League, and no team in baseball has given up fewer runs.

The Orioles, on the other hand, have severely underperformed expectations. They sit in last place in the AL East, and their 26-39 record has them looking like potential sellers at the deadline. While their bats have been disappointing, pitching has been their downfall so far. Perhaps they wouldn’t be so far out of contention with a healthy Rodriguez leading their rotation.

To that point, the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger also shows the percentage of a team’s projected WARP lost to injury. By this metric, neither the Yankees nor the Dodgers (and especially the Dodgers) rank as highly. Think of it this way: They’ve both lost a lot of good players to the IL, but those losses haven’t hurt them as badly as they might have hurt other teams, because the Yankees and Dodgers have such talented rosters. As you might expect, the Orioles still rank highly; they’re second in MLB in percentage of projected WARP lost to injury. However, by this metric, a new top contender emerges: the Brewers.

Pitching injuries plagued the Brewers last year, and they have continued to be a problem in 2025. When the Brewers signed Brandon Woodruff to a two-year contract during the 2023-24 offseason, knowing he would likely miss the entire 2024 season recovering from shoulder surgery, they were surely hoping he’d pitch significant innings in 2025. So far, that hasn’t been the case. He was hoping to finally make his 2025 debut this week before a right elbow contusion foiled his plans. In addition to Woodruff, Brewers starting pitchers who have hit the IL at some point this year include Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, Tobias Myers, and DL Hall. Milwaukee is also missing a pair of outfielders, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins. Finally, star catcher William Contreras has been playing through a fractured finger. He hasn’t missed any time, but his injury almost surely explains his uncharacteristically pedestrian performance at the plate.

The Brewers are also in a very different position than either the Yankees and Dodgers, who seem all but guaranteed to make the playoffs, or the Orioles, who have played so poorly that they might still be under .500 even if everyone on their roster were healthy. Milwaukee is 36-32, 5.5 games back in the NL Central and 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race. All the injuries they have suffered could ultimately make the difference between the Brewers making the playoffs for the seventh time in the past eight years or hitting the links come October.

The Marlins and Rockies are two more teams that rank highly in percentage of projected WARP lost to injury, but even more so than the Yankees and Dodgers, their records are reason enough to disqualify them from this conversation. The same is true of the White Sox, who have placed more players on the IL during 2025 than any other team. Perhaps injuries have cost the Marlins, Rockies, and White Sox several wins each, but even with those extra wins, all three clubs would still be in the basement.

A couple more teams it is worth considering are those that might not have lost a lot of value to injury yet, but who surely will as the season goes on. For instance, the Diamondbacks recently lost ace Corbin Burnes for the season to a torn UCL. Stud reliever Justin Martinez is also on the IL with a sprained UCL that could require season-ending surgery. The Red Sox, too, have lost a few key players recently, most notably Alex Bregman, who could miss multiple months recovering from a significant quad strain.

So, with so much to consider, which team do MLBTR readers think has been hit the hardest by injuries this year? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Can Drew Rasmussen Keep Pitching Like An Ace?

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Drew Rasmussen has pitched into the fifth inning in every start he’s made in 2025. That might not seem so impressive, but Rasmussen is one of just 28 pitchers to have recorded an out in the fifth in 13 or more starts this year. That’s fewer than one per team. Not to mention, he’s coming off internal brace surgery, the third major elbow procedure of his career. Few major leaguers have ever returned from a third such surgery, let alone returned and thrived as the kind of arm a team can count on for five innings every five days.

Even better for Rasmussen and the Rays, his innings stand out for their quality as much as their quantity. In 12 of his 13 starts, he has thrown at least five frames whilst allowing no more than seven baserunners and four runs. No other pitcher – not Paul Skenes, not Jacob deGrom, not Zack Wheeler – has made as many starts that fit that description. All told, the 29-year-old has a 2.22 ERA, the eighth-lowest among qualified AL starters, right in between preseason Cy Young favorites Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. His 0.90 WHIP ranks third, just behind Skubal’s and just ahead of deGrom’s. Underlying those strong results are a 5.3% walk rate, a 50.8% groundball rate, and a 4.8% barrel rate, all of which rank him among the AL’s best. None of his ERA estimators (3.43 SIERA, 3.16 xERA, 3.23 FIP, and 3.31 xFIP) is quite as strong as his low-2.00s ERA, but they’re all still excellent numbers, and only four qualified AL starters have him beat in all four metrics: Skubal, Crochet, Kris Bubic, and Hunter Brown. Those are four of the most exciting young hurlers in the league.

Rasmussen has often flown under the radar, but his ace-like performance this year is hardly coming out of nowhere. Since he arrived in Tampa Bay as part of the Willy Adames trade in 2021, he has pitched to a 2.62 ERA in 347 1/3 innings. He has also compiled 8.2 FanGraphs WAR and 8.8 Baseball Reference WAR in that time. That works out to roughly four wins above replacement per 162 innings, an All-Star-caliber clip. Just as impressive is his consistency. In parts of five seasons with the Rays, he has never had an ERA higher than 2.84. Of course, injuries have severely limited his playing time – he threw 59 innings for Tampa Bay in 2021, 146 in 2022, 44 2/3 in 2023, 28 2/3 in 2024, and he’s thrown 69 so far in 2025 – but his steady excellence is remarkable all the same. Before and after each stint on the IL, Rasmussen has remained dominant. We’re also talking about a guy with the underlying metrics and phenomenal stuff to back up his great results. Since he joined the Rays, only three pitchers have thrown more innings than Rasmussen with a lower SIERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP: Skubal, Chris Sale, and Spencer Strider. Meanwhile, the comprehensive pitch models at FanGraphs, PitchingBot and Pitching+, both suggest his arsenal has been well above average in every season of his Rays tenure.

So, on the one hand, we’re looking at a pitcher who has excelled at every turn over the past five years. On the other hand, that same pitcher has never thrown more than 146 innings in a season. His second-highest single-season innings total at the MLB level is 76. Both of those campaigns came before his third major elbow surgery. In other words, all of Rasmussen’s stats come from a relatively small sample. Furthermore, we have no way to know for sure that he is capable of pitching a full, qualified season without tiring down the stretch. Most important of all, he’s an injury risk, and he will carry that label for perhaps the rest of his career. So, even in a best-case scenario in which Rasmussen continues to shine and shows no sign of slowing down, the Rays will have to manage his workload carefully. At some point, Kevin Cash might stop him from pitching into the fifth inning every start. It’s not out of the question that Rasmussen could eventually move to the bullpen if the Rays are particularly worried about his innings.

Rasmussen has pitched like an ace so far in 2025. Indeed, on a per-inning basis, he’s been one of the most effective arms in the game since he landed with the Rays in 2021. Yet, it’s far from a guarantee he can keep this up over the next several months. So, what do MLBTR readers think? Has Rasmussen done enough to prove he’s one of the game’s premier starting pitchers? Or will his injury history and lack of experience catch up with him as the season wears on? Have your say in today’s poll:

Poll: What Will The Rangers Do At The Deadline?

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While the 2023 World Series champs missed the playoffs last year, a healthy Jacob deGrom and offseason additions like Joc Pederson and Jake Burger seemed to leave the Rangers in a good place to fight their way back to the top of the AL West this year. That hasn’t worked out very well so far, as despite an elite performance from their starting rotation lackluster offense from virtually everyone (save Wyatt Langford) has allowed the Rangers to fall to a 31-35 record. That leaves them 5.5 games out of the AL West entering play today, and 4.5 games back of an AL Wild Card spot.

It’s a tough position for the club to find itself in, particularly when one considers the team’s position regarding the luxury tax. It’s long been apparent than ducking under that first threshold is a priority for Texas this year and many of the moves they’ve made so far, from taking a flier on Patrick Corbin to fill out the rotation to letting Leody Taveras go on waivers, have been at least partially in service to that goal. RosterResource now estimates that Texas has a payroll of just under $235MM for luxury tax purposes, giving them around $6MM of space to work with under the first threshold.

That’s not a ton of space, even when considering that any players added will only need to be paid the prorated portion of their remaining deal. In that sense, indecision on whether to buy or sell could actually help the Rangers if they do decide to buy because any acquisitions will require less cash. With that being said, if Texas can’t get more from individual key players like Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Josh Jung it could be hard for the team to cover all of its needs on a shoestring budget even if they do stay relevant in the Wild Card picture.

One way to handle that would be to try and both buy and sell simultaneously at the deadline. Perhaps someone like Jon Gray (once he’s healthy) or Adolis Garcia (if his numbers improve a bit) could be dealt elsewhere for salary relief to allow the club to take a bigger swing and acquire a bat like Marcell Ozuna to help spark the offense. It’s also possible they could simply offer a larger return package to any clubs they buy from in exchange for the selling team eating most or all of the player’s salary. That would likely require the Rangers to firmly make their way into the playoff conversation from here, however, as teams are often hesitant to part with high-level talent to add players unless the postseason is fully in reach.

That could leave the Rangers to do at least some selling. But if they fall further in the standings, it’s not hard to imagine a larger sell-off. Right-hander Tyler Mahle has been nothing short of fantastic this year with a 2.02 ERA in 13 starts, and he should be one of the more highly coveted rentals if made available. Hoby Milner and Chris Martin would both be extremely attractive relief options for bullpen-needy clubs, as well. The team could even attempt to restructure their payroll in a more significant way by seeing if there are any takers on deGrom’s hefty salary, though moving that kind of money midseason is always challenging.

The final option on the table for the Rangers would be to simply do nothing. It’s fairly rare for a club to stand completely pat at the deadline, and the Rangers in particular have not typically been afraid to make moves under Chris Young’s leadership. With that being said, however, the club’s precarious position relative to the luxury tax and the aforementioned potential benefit of waiting until as close to the deadline as possible to make any buy-side moves could leave the team in position to risk doing very little to alter the club this summer, instead riding with the group they currently have and leaving large scale changes for an offseason that should offer more financial flexibility.

How do MLBTR readers think the Rangers will ultimately approach this summer’s trade deadline? Will they buy, sell, both, or neither? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Which Contender Should Be Most Aggressive On The Rotation Market?

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Trade season is fast approaching, and teams have mostly begun to start sorting themselves between the contenders and pretenders. At almost every trade deadline, there’s one need that teams prioritize filling than any other: starting pitching. There’s no such thing as too many starters, and that’s become even more true in recent years as pitching injuries have skyrocketed. Plenty of teams will want to add an impact arm (or at least some depth) to their rotation this summer, but which need help the most ahead of the stretch run? Here’s a look at some of the league’s top contenders:

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have fought their way back into the AL Wild Card conversation recently, and they’ve done so despite a bottom-five rotation in baseball by ERA. Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt are both solid veterans who can be trusted to start a playoff game, and Jose Berrios is getting good results despite worrisome peripherals for the second year in a row. After that trio, however, things start to look dire. Bowden Francis has been one of the worst qualified starters in baseball this year,  and the team has no defined fifth starter at all for the moment.

Spencer Turnbull is coming to help out sooner or later, but relying on a pitcher who last made even 20 appearances back in 2019 to help turn things around is risky. Alek Manoah and Max Scherzer could both contribute at some point in theory, but they’ve similarly dealt with injuries that have made them major question marks in recent years. For Toronto, one could argue that the question is less about whether or not they need another starter, but whether or not they’ll remain firmly enough in contention to justify the expense come July.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs enter play today with the best record in the NL, and with Kyle Tucker set to reach free agency in November, there’s little question they’ll be buyers this summer. A stacked lineup that features few obvious holes makes pitching the most sensible place for them to look for upgrades, and it’s not hard to argue for starting pitching as the best choice when looking for upgrades. Cubs’ starters have combined for a 3.99 ERA this year, good for 19th in baseball. That’s below average in the league overall despite players like Matthew Boyd (3.01 ERA) and Colin Rea (3.59 ERA) pitching better than anyone would’ve assumed preseason.

Justin Steele is out for the season after undergoing surgery on his UCL, and he’s joined on the IL by co-ace Shota Imanaga while the veteran works his way back from a hamstring strain. Imanaga is expected back at some point this month, but with depth options like Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Brandon Birdsell all also on the injured list, Ben Brown (5.72 ERA) struggling badly this season, and top prospect Cade Horton likely operating on an innings limit, it’s hard to imagine the Cubs not doing something to address their rotation this summer.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers, at least on paper, have more rotation arms than they know what to do with. The reality of their situation is much different, however, as the vast majority of those pitchers are presently on the injured list. In conjunction with disappointing performances from players like Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Tony Gonsolin, and Clayton Kershaw, those injuries have left the Dodgers with a 4.35 rotation ERA and the fifth-weakest starting staff in the NL this year. Their two-game lead on the Padres and three-game lead on the Giants in the NL West aren’t nearly as comfortable as they would surely like, and with a stacked lineup that has few obvious holes, that could make starting pitching the most obvious area for them to upgrade this summer.

On the other hand, it’s possible L.A. could simply rely on internal improvements as players get healthier. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is in the NL Cy Young conversation this year, and Dustin May has looked like a capable arm for the middle-to-back of the rotation. Glasnow, Sasaki, and Blake Snell are all expected back at some point or other this year, and Shohei Ohtani is of course working his way back to the big league mound. For a club that managed to win a World Series with a patchwork rotation just last year, perhaps that’s enough to feel comfortable standing pat this summer. Even so, at least another depth arm or two couldn’t hurt.

Cleveland Guardians

Long renowned for their excellent starting pitching development, the Guardians were one of several playoff teams last year who limped into October with major question marks in the rotation. With a 4.07 ERA and 4.55 FIP out of the rotation this year, they look to be at risk of doing so once again. Luis Ortiz looks like a solid mid-rotation arm, but Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams have both seen their peripherals take a nosedive this year despite solid enough results. Cleveland recently lost Ben Lively for the season to Tommy John surgery as well, creating another hole in their rotation mix.

Perhaps an internal option like right-hander Zak Kent can be a surprise contributor, and Shane Bieber’s eventual return from the injured list could provide a big boost so long as he can shake off the rust from a long layoff. That could make an outfield in need of upgrades a more pressing issue but it’s hard to imagine the rotation not being an area worth upgrading this summer. That’s especially true given that the bullpen that helped carry Cleveland to October last year has looked more “good” than “superhuman” in 2025.

Other Teams In Need

These four aren’t the only teams who could use some pitching help this summer. The Red Sox and Diamondbacks have both struggled to get results from their rotation, but have a deep group of arms in-house already and are far enough out of contention at this point that they may end up selling. That latter point is also true of the Braves, whose pitching situation looks more worrisome than ever after Spencer Strider has struggled in his return from surgery and AJ Smith-Shawver was lost for the year. The Yankees and Twins have pitched extremely well this season, but it would be understandable for either team to look for upgrades given the significant blow losing Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and Pablo Lopez (Grade 2 Lat Strain) dealt to each respective rotation. The Cardinals have gotten middling results from their rotation but have a bigger need in the outfield. The outfield also seems likely to be a bigger priority for the Astros, who have gotten great results from Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez but are currently relying on a patchwork at the back of their rotation while players like Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti heal up on the injured list. Like the Astros, the Padres are currently running a top-heavy rotation a handful of question marks.

Which team do you think ought to be the most aggressive in pursuing starting pitching this summer? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: What Will Atlanta’s Deadline Look Like?

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It was a tough start to the season in Atlanta, as they lost their first seven games in a row and 13 of their first 18 games. Brutal as that start to the season was, the club managed to turn things around in the latter weeks of April, and as recently as May 19 things were looking good. The Braves were 24-23, leaving them on the periphery of the Wild Card conversation, Spencer Strider was finally back from the injured list, and Ronald Acuna Jr. was just days away from his own return. Unfortunately, they’ve gone just 3-11 since then. That leaves them in fourth place in the NL East with a 27-34 record and 6.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, with six teams they’d need to bypass in the standings in order to make it to the postseason.

Impressive and well-constructed as the team may look on paper, the group simply hasn’t been getting the job done in practice. Strider has pitched poorly (6.43 ERA, 6.93 FIP) in three starts since returning. AJ Smith-Shawver is done for the season after suffering a torn UCL. Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II aren’t hitting. No qualified reliever in baseball has allowed more home runs than closer Raisel Iglesias. It’s impossible to know what they can expect to get out of Jurickson Profar when he returns from his PED suspension, and even if he plays well he won’t be eligible for the postseason.

Taken together, it’s hard not to see Atlanta as a team that has simply fallen too far behind the pack to justify continuing to push their chips in for the postseason. The good news is that, if they do decide to sell, they’ll have plenty of interesting pieces to move. Iglesias has had a rough year, but still boasts 232 saves and an ERA below 3.00 for his career. Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top designated hitters for three straight seasons now, with a 148 wRC+ stretching back to 2023 that’s top-ten in baseball among hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances in that time. Perhaps Alex Verdugo can be of interest to a team in need of outfield help, even in the midst of a down season (79 wRC+). Ozuna would immediately become the best hitter available this summer if dangled, and even in spite of his home run woes teams will be hard pressed to find a more decorated reliever than Iglesias to close out games for them.

If the Braves were to decide to sell, would they stop at rental pieces or consider dealing longer-term assets as well? They hold a team option on the services of veteran ace Chris Sale, but the reigning NL Cy Young winner would immediately become the most valuable asset on the market if president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos decided to dangle him. A $7MM team option for 2026 would make right-hander Pierce Johnson an attractive multi-year asset on the market as well. And with Drake Baldwin making his case to be NL Rookie of the Year, it’s not impossible to imagine Atlanta listening to offers on Sean Murphy and shedding the $45MM in guaranteed dollars remaining on his deal for his age 31-33 seasons. In a summer that looks like there may not be much impact talent available, there’s plenty of upside to be found in selling aggressively while the majority of the league is scrambling to improve ahead of the stretch run.

As much sense as it might seem to make for the Braves to listen on some of their top short-term pieces, it must be remembered that Anthopoulos and his front office aren’t afraid to zig when the rest of the league zags. Just a few years ago, Atlanta entered the All-Star break with a sub-.500 club that had just lost Acuna to a season-ending injury. It would’ve been understandable if they decided to sell, with Freddie Freeman, Chris Martin, Dansby Swanson, and Charlie Morton among the short-term assets they had in the fold at that point who could have brought back massive returns. Rather than entertain that option, the club added Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, and Eddie Rosario to their beleaguered outfield and stayed the course. A few months later, they hoisted the Commissioner’s Trophy after beating the Astros in the World Series.

It shouldn’t shock anyone if club brass decides to stay the course once again this year in hopes of a similar Cinderella run. After all, the talent on Atlanta’s roster is enviable; all the same reasons that pieces like Iglesias and Ozuna would be attractive to rival organizations are reasons the Braves may simply prefer to try to win while they’re still in the fold rather than bank on figuring things out without them in the future, and that goes double for longer-term pieces like Sale and Murphy. Perhaps Strider will improve as he shakes off the rust from his long rehab, and Acuna has wasted no time thrusting himself back into the conversation as one of the league’s premier stars. With the 2023 NL MVP’s time under team control set to last only three more seasons after this one, it’s far to wonder if the Braves would really sacrifice one of those seasons by selling at the deadline.

How do MLBTR readers think Atlanta will approach the deadline this summer? Will they push their chips in and buy despite long odds, like they did in 2021? Will they do some light selling, casting off rental players in hopes of restocking in 2026? Or will they listen to offers on a wider range of players? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Marlins Trade Ryan Weathers?

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When it comes to trade candidates on the Marlins, the majority of the focus has been squarely on right-hander Sandy Alcantara. A recent Cy Young award winner who missed last season while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Alcantara is earning a healthy salary on a team that is seemingly always looking for opportunities to lower its already-meager payroll and has enough team control remaining for rival clubs to convince themselves to part ways with prospects they’d never consider dealing for a rental arm.

That all makes Alcantara a sensible and attractive trade candidate on paper, but a major issue with those plans has emerged this year: he simply isn’t pitching very well. The righty’s 7.89 ERA through 12 starts is the worst mark among starters with at least 50 innings this year, and even more advanced metrics like his 5.04 FIP and 4.85 SIERA are the 11th- and tenth-worst figures in the sport respectively. It’s going to be hard to convince opposing teams to pay a premium for Alcantara as he’s currently pitching, and that’s a problem for a Miami club that’s in the midst of a deep rebuild.

While Alcantara might not be pitching like the front-line starter the team was hoping to be able to market to needy clubs this summer, another intriguing arm has inserted himself into the discussion with a strong start to the season: left-hander Ryan Weathers. The 25-year-old started the 2025 campaign on the injured list due to a forearm strain he suffered during Spring Training, but in four starts since returning he’s looked nothing short of excellent with a 2.49 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate, and a 43.1% ground ball rate. Those peripherals don’t quite live up to that ERA, but even his 3.60 SIERA to this point in the year puts him on par with arms like Merrill Kelly and David Peterson who have established themselves as solid mid-rotation, playoff-caliber starters.

On top of his solid performance, Weathers would also be extremely attractive as a trade candidate because he’s making less than $780K this season and comes with plenty of team control. The southpaw won’t be a free agent until the end of the 2028 season, so even clubs facing tight budget restrictions in the short term or who aren’t interested in adding long-term salary commitments could have interest in his services if he’s made available. Weathers’ combination of strong results and a team-friendly contract situation could make him an extremely valuable trade asset for the Fish this summer.

With that being said, there are certainly strong reasons to think the Marlins may not want to part ways with the southpaw. Weathers is still just 25 years old and has yet to complete a full, healthy big league campaign with the club. Four starts is a small sample size that could make him difficult to market, and while good health should allow him to get more like ten to twelve starts under his belt before trade season kicks into high gear, it’s possible he’ll take a step back and wind up pitching closer to the 3.63 ERA and 4.11 FIP he posted in 16 starts last season going forward. Even if he does keep this level of success up, there’s certainly an argument to be made that Weathers could be dealt at a later date when he’s more established and teams might feel more comfortable surrendering a large trade package for him.

What’s more, Weathers’ three seasons of team control after this one could make the Marlins a bit more reluctant to trade the lefty. Miami surely hopes to be competing for the postseason again before 2029, especially with players like Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Agustin Ramirez, and Xavier Edwards showing themselves to be solid pieces this year. A potential front three of Eury Perez, Max Meyer, and Weathers under long-term team control would go a long way to making the Marlins legitimate contenders sooner rather than later, and many of those aforementioned pieces only have one more year of team control than Weathers does. Moving someone like Edward Cabrera, who has the same amount of team control remaining as Weathers but is two years older, could also be a preferable option given that Weathers is set to hit free agency ahead of his age-29 season.

Of course, many of the reasons that Weathers would be difficult to part ways with now could be argued as reasons he should be traded at some point. His injury history may make him less valuable in trade, but the Marlins are seeing right now with Alcantara what struggling after a major arm injury can do to a player’s value. The lefty’s youth would mean he’s in the prime of his career when the Marlins will hopefully be trying to contend again, but it also would make him a prime extension candidate for a club with deeper pockets than Miami. The collection of talent the club has at its disposal is impressive, but it still leans much more towards pitching than offense, so swapping a player like Weathers for a bat with similar control could go a long way to improving the team.

How do MLBTR readers think the Marlins should handle Weathers this summer? Should he be kept off the market entirely, shopped aggressively, or moved only if a team makes an overwhelming offer? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Will The Diamondbacks Be Sellers This Summer?

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The Diamondbacks have been one of the better teams in baseball in recent years. The won the NL pennant just two years ago, and last season put together a strong 89-win campaign that just barely missed the playoffs due to a three-way tiebreaker with the Braves and Mets. After an offseason where the club brought in Josh Naylor and Corbin Burnes among a handful of other additions, it wasn’t hard to see the Diamondbacks serving as the main challenger to the Dodgers in the NL West, or at least as an early favorite for one of the NL Wild Card spots.

Things haven’t worked out that way, however. The Diamondbacks entered play today with a 28-31 record that leaves them in fourth place in the NL West, 7.5 games back of the Dodgers but also behind the Padres and Giants. Even in the NL Wild Card race, Arizona is five games back, in line with the records of likely sellers in other divisions like the Nationals and Reds. While they entered the season with a 60.4% chance to make the playoffs according to Fangraphs, today’s playoff odds give them just a 27.9% chance to play in the postseason this year. Those odds are a worrying sign, but they’re hardly the be-all and end-all; the Tigers (20.3%) and Mets (9.8%) both had slimmer odds at the postseason than that one year ago today and ended up not only making the playoffs but playing fairly deep into October.

What separates Arizona from last year’s surprise contenders, however, is that they clearly appear to be on the downswing. Burnes is having elbow troubles, leaving his future at the top of their rotation uncertain at best. Closer A.J. Puk is on the 60-day injured list with an uncertain timeline*. Zac Gallen hasn’t looked like himself all season, and Brandon Pfaadt was having trouble staying consistent even before he gave up eight runs without recording an out in his most recent start against the Nationals. An offense with players like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, and even Pavin Smith all hitting incredibly well feels as though it should be a slam dunk to make the postseason, but the club just doesn’t appear to have enough pitching to make a run as presently constructed without significant turnarounds from players like Gallen.

An argument could be made, however, that with Marte nearing the end of his prime years and players like Gallen, Naylor, Merrill Kelly, and Eugenio Suarez ticketed for free agency this winter, that the Diamondbacks would simply be best served supplementing the current roster with more pitching this summer and attempting to make a late-season run. A number of interesting arms could potentially be available this summer, ranging from mid-rotation pieces like Zach Eflin and Nick Martinez to relief help like Pete Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan. Any of those options could help stabilize the pitching staff enough for Arizona’s vaunted offense to carry the rest of the load, and that’s before considering the unlikely but still feasible possibilities that teams like the Astros and Cardinals decide to dangle Framber Valdez and Ryan Helsley.

The complication with that, however, is that Arizona is already in very uncharted waters when it comes to payroll. Efforts to trade Jordan Montgomery to free up payroll space this winter were unsuccessful, and the fact that he ended up going under the knife before the season began put a stop to any hopes of moving him to make room for other players in the budget this summer. It’s at least theoretically possible ownership could be willing to green-light even more spending for a squad that RosterResource suggests is already costing the club $196MM this year, but it would hardly be a surprise if managing general partner Ken Kendrick was reluctant to invest in the team further without them showing more signs of life. Young players like Carroll, Jordan Lawlar, and Perdomo aren’t going anywhere, so it’s not hard to imagine the club being able to load up on talent this summer by moving players like Gallen and Suarez with an eye towards contending in 2026 and beyond.

Perhaps the best news for the Diamondbacks at this point is that there’s still nearly two months until the deadline, meaning they won’t need to make a decision for at least a few more weeks. A late June stretch where the club enjoys nine consecutive games against the Rockies, White Sox, and Marlins could easily provide just the sort of shot in the arm Arizona needs to get right back into the thick of the Wild Card race, especially if they’re able to take series against more middle-of-the-road clubs like Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Toronto over the next two weeks.

How do MLBTR readers think the Diamondbacks will ultimately handle their deadline dilemma? Will they push their chips in with the 2025 club, or dangle players like Gallen in hopes of building a stronger team for next year? Have your say in the poll below:

*This post originally stated that Puk was done for the year. MLBTR regrets the error.

Poll: Can Willy Adames Turn Things Around?

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2025 has been a good time to be a Giants fan so far. Buster Posey’s turn at the helm of baseball operations has helped push the club to a solid 31-25 start, putting them just one game back of the Cardinals for the final NL Wild Card spot and three games back of the Dodgers for the NL West crown. While San Francisco would surely prefer to be in playoff position right now, it’s been a very encouraging start for a club that was projected by Fangraphs for an 81-81 record and a 28.5% chance of making the postseason prior to the start of the 2025 campaign. Strong as the club’s start has been, however, that’s been almost entirely without contribution from their marquee free agent signing of the 2024-25 offseason.

It’s been a rough first year in San Francisco for Willy Adames, to put it mildly. Long viewed as an excellent two-way shortstop, Adames has yet to post on either side of the ball for the Giants. Advanced defensive metrics are notoriously finicky and take quite a long time to stabilize, but Adames’s -3 Outs Above Average and -2 Fielding Run Value are both worrying figures for a player who was a Gold Glove candidate as recently as 2023, while his -8 DRS this year stands dead last among all qualifying shortstops. Errors are hardly the best way to measure defensive value, but only Manny Machado and Elly De La Cruz have committed more of them in 2025. No matter how you slice it, Adames has started his stay in the Bay Area off with lackluster defense.

Perhaps that would be easy enough to look past if Adames was putting up strong numbers at the plate. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. He’s hitting just .208/.288/.333 with a wRC+ of 77. His 26.2% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate aren’t out of the ordinary relative to his career numbers, but they are the worst figures he’s posted in both categories since 2022. The primary red flag in Adames’s profile this year is his vanishing power, however. After averaging 28 homers a season from 2021 to 2024, the shortstop has hit just five in his first 56 games as a Giant.

At least some of that can be blamed on his ballpark, and Statcast suggests that Adames would have as many as eight homers if he played all of his games at a friendlier ballpark like Dodger Stadium. Park factors aren’t the only thing to blame for Adames’s power-outage, however. While his barrel rate of 11% is more or less in line with what he’s done throughout his career, Adames is pulling the ball less often than he ever did with the Brewers and hitting the ball softly more frequently than ever before. The fact that Adames has stopped pulling the ball as much and is hitting it the other way more is surely a big reason for his drop in power, particularly combined with the aforementioned unforgiving park factors at Oracle Park, which are especially harsh on right-handed oppo hitters.

That leaves Adames with an altered batted ball profile that works in tandem with his new environment to create some of the worst results of his career. That means his struggles aren’t likely to end so long as he keeps going the other way, but the good news is that Adames can get back to the approach he demonstrated in 2023 and ’24, when he pulled 45.8% of his batted balls and went the other way just 19.5% of the time, it’s not hard to imagine his results improving considerably. While it may be too late in the season at this point to expect Adames to match his 119 wRC+ from last year, getting back up around league average or even matching the 107 wRC+ he posted over the last four years could be a much more realistic target.

How do MLBTR readers think the rest of Adames’s season will play out from here? Will he be able to make the adjustments necessary to hit well in Oracle Park and turn his season around, or will he remain a below-average hitter this season? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Rangers Shake Up The Lineup?

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The Rangers have had a rough go of it so far in the month of May. They’ve gone just 11-15 on the month entering play today, including an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the White Sox last week, and three of those 11 wins came at the expense of a hapless Rockies club that has still not yet won its tenth game of the season. That’s left the team three games under .500, four games back in the AL Wild Card race, and 4.5 games back of the Mariners in the AL West. Those struggles have come in spite of a rotation so dominant that a fully healthy and effective Jacob deGrom is arguably the #3 starter this year by the results.

To find the culprit of the Rangers’ struggles, one need look no further than the starting lineup. The club’s hitters have posted a collective .219/.281/.354 slash line this year with a wRC+ of 80 that’s better than only that of the Pirates and Rockies. Texas has the lowest on-base percentage in the majors and the fewest runs scored in the AL. Going position-by-position, they have been in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ at almost every position in the majors with below-average production everywhere except third base and left field. Those positions are salvaged by standout performances from Josh Jung and Wyatt Langford, but the rest of the lineup is faltering.

That’s not to say there’s no light at the end of the tunnel, however. Josh Smith remains an above average hitter overall on the year, and perhaps he can shake his current cold stretch (.233/.295/.337 in May) once he’s relieved of the defensive rigors of serving as the club’s everyday shortstop. Smith took that role up in the absence of Corey Seager, who has been his typical excellent self when healthy but has appeared in just 27 games this season due to injuries. Seager’s recent return and the likely impending return of Evan Carter from the injured list leaves the Rangers with some decisions to make about their lineup, as discussed recently by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Seager’s return yesterday (albeit as a DH) pushed Sam Haggerty out of the lineup, but that leaves no room for Carter unless the club is willing to pull the plug on outfielder Alejandro Osuna despite him having looked good in his first cup of coffee as a big leaguer. Once Carter returns, Grant suggests that it could mean a shift in playing time for second baseman Marcus Semien and/or right fielder Adolis Garcia. Both veterans were key pieces of the club’s 2023 World Series championship but struggled through below-average (99 wRC+ for Semien, 92 for Garcia) seasons last year. 2025 has been far worse for both hitters, with Semien slashing just .173/.260/.224 (42 wRC+) on the year while Garcia has posted a lackluster .208/.256/.371 (74 wRC+) line.

The pair’s expected numbers are better than their current production, leaving the door cracked open to optimism for a rebound, but even those numbers would be good for merely average offensive production. As things stand, neither of those performances are acceptable for a big league regular. With the first two months of the season in the books and other hitters starting to get healthy, the leash for both veterans may be shortening. It’s hard to imagine the Rangers cutting either player (particularly with three years and $72MM left on Semien’s deal after 2025), but some sort of change appears to be necessary.

On paper, using lefty hitters on the club like Smith and Osuna as platoon partners for the righty-swinging Semien and Garcia could make some sense. A look under the hood reveals that may not be as helpful as it might seem, however; Garcia is actually roughly average (99 wRC+) against right-handed pitching this year but has gone just 7-for-48 with one walk and one double against southpaws. Semien, meanwhile, is hitting lefties better than righties but is striking out at a 30.8% clip against southpaws with a 51 wRC+. Whatever advantage he has against opposite-handed pitching is more of a commentary on his struggles against fellow righties than a sign of actual success.

If neither player makes sense as a candidate for a platoon role, then perhaps the Rangers’ best option would simply be to decrease the playing time of both hitters slightly. A reduction in playing time could be tough to stomach for the veterans, particularly in the case of an iron man like Semien who last played less than 159 games in a full season back in 2017, but it seems clear that something needs to change for the Rangers moving forward. The club could also consider benching either one for the time being to offer a physical breather and mental reset, but Semien’s solid defense at second base would be missed and, as previously mentioned, Garcia has performed decently enough at least against right-handed pitching.

How would MLBTR readers handle the situation? Would you fully bench one of the two struggling veterans, continue sticking with them as regulars in the lineup, or try to work out a timeshare between all of the Rangers’ bats? Have your say in the poll below:

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