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Can The Marlins’ Top Slugger Keep This Up?

By Nick Deeds | May 27, 2025 at 4:40pm CDT

Marlins fans don’t have much to root for this year, especially given the disastrous results Sandy Alcantara has gotten in his first ten starts back from Tommy John surgery. Miami’s 21-31 record is already enough to put them nine games out of a Wild Card spot and 12.5 games back of the Phillies in the NL East. Given the fact that the Fish are already buried in the standings and Alcantara is struggling, it would be easy to expect this season to be little more than waiting for Eury Perez to get healthy and watching Max Meyer develop at the big league level.

Kyle Stowers has changed that with a phenomenal start to the season. Acquired from the Orioles alongside infielder Connor Norby at the trade deadline last year in exchange for lefty Trevor Rogers, Stowers showed very little in his first 50 games with the Marlins. In 172 plate appearances with Miami last year, he hit a paltry .186/.262/.295 (56 wRC+) with minimal power and a massive 35.5% strikeout rate. That left him with a lot to prove headed into 2025, especially given that he celebrated his 27th birthday back in January.

Fortunately for both Stowers and the Marlins, he’s gone well beyond looking like an everyday player in the majors in the early part of the year. In 204 plate appearances, Stowers has recorded a terrific .300/.369/.528 slash with ten home runs and a wRC+ of 145. That’s a top-25 offensive performance in the majors this year, on par with stars like Corbin Carroll and Jose Ramirez. That sort of offensive firepower would provide a much-needed boost to the Marlins’ lineup as they try to push through this latest rebuild — if Stowers can sustain it.

When looking at Stowers’ underlying metrics, the results are a mixed bag with some surface level peripherals telling different stories than others. The slugger’s .396 xwOBA is actually better than his .387 wOBA, which typically suggests that a player is more than earning his production. On the other hand, Stowers has undeniably benefited from a .379 BABIP, the seventh-highest figure in the majors so far this year and nine points higher than Seiya Suzuki’s 2024 performance, which led all qualified hitters. Stowers has tended toward high BABIP figures throughout his young MLB career, but that figure is almost certain to come down. That means he’s unlikely to remain a .300 hitter, particularly given his improved but still elevated 27.5% strikeout rate.

An explanation for Stowers’ impressive numbers can be found, to some extent, in one simple fact: he hits the ball hard very frequently. The outfielder’s 53.5% hard-hit rate this year is good for 16th in the majors among qualified hitters. His 91.5 mph average exit velocity is within the top 50, and perhaps most impressively, his 20.5% barrel rate is topped by just four players in baseball this year: Oneil Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Cal Raleigh. You can’t keep much better company than that in the power department, and as long as Stowers is barreling up one out of every five batted balls, he should be a productive player.

A comparison to Ohtani and Judge might make it seem as though Stowers is a guaranteed budding All-Star, but the reality isn’t quite that simple. That’s because the 27-year-old’s plate discipline is nearly as weak as his batted-ball profile is strong. Stowers swings at virtually everything, with the 12th-highest swing rate (55.7%) in the majors. Most of the players ahead of him on that leaderboard hit the ball incredibly hard, which Stowers does as well, but they also make contact at a solid rate, which Stowers does not. In fact, Stowers’ 69.4% contact rate is the tenth-lowest in baseball this year; only Guardians infielder Gabriel Arias swings more frequently while making contact less often, and his 91 wRC+ isn’t exactly something Stowers should be looking to emulate.

Between his high swing rate and low contact rate, Stowers is left tied for second in baseball behind Arias in swinging-strike rate this year. There’s some room for optimism, as the player he’s tied with is Bryce Harper. Harper has made his high swinging-strike rate work by mostly whiffing at pitches outside of he zone while still laying off those pitches often enough to draw a healthy number of walks. Stowers makes less contact on pitches in the zone than Harper, swings more often, and has a walk rate five percentage points lower than that of the star Phillies slugger.

Taking Stowers’ poor discipline and elite power potential together, it’s easy to see how he could have struggled so badly in his first 50 games with the Marlins while excelling so impressively through his next 50 games. When Stowers is getting his bat on the ball often enough for his power potential to carry his profile, like he is this season, he will likely excel. When that’s not happening and his strikeout rate is closer to the 35.5% clip he posted with the Fish last year, he’s likely to face some serious struggles without the discipline to lay off bad pitches and draw more walks.

How do MLBTR readers think Stowers will fare going forward? Have your say in the poll below:

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View Comments (29)
Post a Comment

29 Comments

  1. DarkSide830

    3 weeks ago

    no

    1
    Reply
    • Stevie Steve

      3 weeks ago

      He and Norby were at the top of my trade list last summer. So #glad he brought his talents to South Beach

      Reply
      • Major League Baseball Fan

        3 weeks ago

        The other Marlins fan!

        Reply
  2. HalosHeavenJJ

    3 weeks ago

    The kid looks like a really solid player but the safe bet is always against being a star.

    I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he’s a 110 wRC+ guy for the next several years with this year and perhaps another ending closer to 120.

    Nice pickup by the Fish.

    3
    Reply
  3. Ezpkns34

    3 weeks ago

    Barrel rate of over 20% is pretty definitive if he can even keep close to that. Small sample size, of course, but leads to metrics saying things like his SLG is actually 40 points “lower* than expected

    For comparison, only 4 players finished with a barrel rates over 16% last season

    All that to say that even if (when?) the K rate ticks back up, there’s still reason for optimism for both Marlins fans

    5
    Reply
  4. Acoss1331

    3 weeks ago

    No, but he might become an above average hitter and that’s already a win for the Marlins.

    8
    Reply
    • Major League Baseball Fan

      3 weeks ago

      A huge win, Right!

      Reply
  5. Mjm117

    3 weeks ago

    Rogers had his best start in years to open 2025. Not all is bad this year O’s fans

    7
    Reply
  6. Dorothy_Mantooth

    3 weeks ago

    It’s pretty amazing that with his incredible start and his OPS of .897 that he has only accumulated 1.0 WAR exactly 1/3 of the way through the season. I would have thought he’d be around 2.0 WAR by now (on pace for a 6.0 WAR season). Does anyone know if he plays poor defense in the OF? Perhaps his defense has negatively impacted his season to date WAR? It feels like his WAR should be higher to me.

    4
    Reply
    • YankeesBleacherCreature

      3 weeks ago

      Both FG and OAA have him at slightly below average. He does have above-average arm strength. He’s played 60 games in OF mostly in corners including 8 in CF. I think the Marlins are doing him a disservice by playing him all over and he can be league average defensively.

      mlb.com/news/kyle-stowers-statcast-analysis-and-br…

      4
      Reply
    • Canuckleball

      3 weeks ago

      So far this season, he has a -3 Defensive Runs Saved and a -2 Outs Above Average.

      So yeah, his defense is holding him back a bit.

      4
      Reply
  7. HBan22

    3 weeks ago

    The Orioles got robbed in this trade. Both him and Norby look like potentially above average regulars.

    3
    Reply
    • tuck 2

      3 weeks ago

      Not really. When everyone is healthy there’s really no spot for him – definitely true w Norby and let’s wait and see what Roger’s does when healthy. He was outstanding in his first start with the fastball back at 95. Trades take longer than half a season to play out

      3
      Reply
  8. tuck 2

    3 weeks ago

    Wish him well but 240 hitters in AAA don’t suddenly become this. Pitchers will find the holes and he’ll be back in that range. He has some power and could hit 20-25 homers but Marlins fans enjoy it while it lasts

    6
    Reply
  9. Pads Fans

    3 weeks ago

    .380 babip. HR% more than 3 times his career average. His HH% is down and his EV is consistent with his career averages.

    This too shall pass and he will end up a league average hitter or slightly below. Maybe .240 BA with a .740 OPS.

    3
    Reply
  10. scruffmcgruff

    3 weeks ago

    At this point it my O’s do look like they got robbed in that trade. Our offense has been inconsistent at best and nonexistent at worst. Rogers is controllable through 2027 so while his initial impression was really really bad, I’d say the jury is still out on him. Stowers definitely looks like a solid big leaguer, maybe not a star but he could certainly carve out a career, though its still a very small sample size for him at this point. Norby has shown some offensive potential for sure but hes got 5 walks compared to 36 K’s this year. Not the type of ratio you want for a guy but you can see glimpses of why they traded for him, still just 25 too.

    2
    Reply
    • JoeBrady

      3 weeks ago

      Rogers is controllable through 2027
      =========================
      Thru 2026 per BR and Cots.

      2
      Reply
  11. Sean P

    3 weeks ago

    You can argue pretty easily that he is playing over his head but you cannot deny the barrel rate being elite. He’s doing a lot of things right.

    1
    Reply
    • Pads Fans

      3 weeks ago

      Double his career averages. Stowers is not a rookie and not young, so all those things will regress to the mean. I was being generous in saying he will end up with a .240 BA and .740 OPS.

      Reply
      • Sean P

        3 weeks ago

        Nice of you to be generous almighty lord of stat prediction. Was just saying he’s swinging the bat really well. The barrel rate is impressive. Maybe he’s figured something out?

        Reply
        • Pads Fans

          2 weeks ago

          Since my first comment his BA has dropped 30 points and his OPS 85. Not the almighty lord of stats, I just understand what they mean.

          Reply
        • Sean P

          2 weeks ago

          Well you don’t seem to understand my comment. I made no predictions. Barrel rate isn’t luck. It’s an indication he’s seeing pitches and swinging the bat well. That’s really all I said. Nothing wrong with being the lord of predictions either. I don’t know the guy. Don’t watch the guy. And have no horse in this race. So I might actually prefer you to be right. I’ve had more interactions with you than I’ll ever have with him lol. Well done sir.

          Reply
        • Pads Fans

          2 weeks ago

          Ummm, yes it is in that small of a sample size. I made predictions and I was correct that he would move in the direction he is headed. Get back to me at the end of the season.

          Reply
        • Sean P

          2 weeks ago

          Cool? Go away.

          1
          Reply
  12. NattyBroh

    3 weeks ago

    He’s comparable to Mike Yastrzemski

    Reply
    • sorengo99

      3 weeks ago

      Because both came up with the O’s? They’re completely different types of players, lol.

      Reply
  13. Major League Baseball Fan

    3 weeks ago

    Sounds kinda ignorant but…

    2
    Reply
  14. sorengo99

    3 weeks ago

    Do you even expect weighted on base percentages, bro

    2
    Reply
  15. trumiamifan

    3 weeks ago

    A big thank you to the O’s organization

    1
    Reply

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