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MLBTR Poll: Likeliest Landing Spot For Manny Machado

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Star infielder Manny Machado is rolling into Philly today after previous stops in Chicago and New York. That’s the extent of his 2018-19 winter tour, so far as is known, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t keen interest. The White Sox seem inclined to make a splash, the Yankees are squared up against some other powerful teams in the AL, and the Phillies face lofty expectations. Plus, there’s ongoing chatter about a mystery team, though there are conflicting reports on that score.

As things stand today, what’s the likeliest landing spot for Machado? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)

Likeliest Landing Spot For Manny Machado
Yankees 43.29% (15,923 votes)
Phillies 27.82% (10,232 votes)
White Sox 14.53% (5,344 votes)
Mystery Team 14.36% (5,282 votes)
Total Votes: 36,781

MLBTR Poll: Andrew McCutchen / Michael Brantley Contracts

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As the MLBTR team put together this year’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, it became clear that there were a few bunchings of multiple players in similar market positions. That’s apparent most obviously at the top, where Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are both trying to push the bounds of what a 26-year-old star can earn (albeit at different positions), and in the sub-elite tier of the relief market, where there are a variety of very good pitchers who possess at least one or two obvious limitations on value.

It may be, though, that the tightest race between any two players — at least, in terms of ink spilled in relation to the level of contract we were debating — was between Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley. Proof? Tim Dierkes wrote Steve Adams and me an email on October 25th entitled, “Brantley vs Cutch revisited.”

In such situations, at some point, you’re forced to pick between the players — unless you take the easy way out (as I often do in our summer trade ranking list!) by grouping multiple players at one spot. Since Tim is made of sterner stuff than I, he was determined to put one ahead of the other — even if they ended up at the same predicted contract, as ultimately proved to be the case. I thought it’d be interesting to look back at some of our lengthy debate on the topic, and use it as a jumping-off point for a poll now that we’ve seen both players agree to deals.

It was something of an upset that Tim decided to place Brantley first. After all, he led off that aforementioned email with a series of power arguments that’d make Cutch’s agents blush: McCutchen has more power, doesn’t have platoon issues, “is indestructible,” and is a more versatile defender. Pop, offensive balance, durability, flexibility … seemed like a closed case.

Of course, there are counter-arguments in favor of Brantley, and Steve was happy to provide them in exhaustive detail. He summed up the main thrust of his viewpoint thusly: “Even if you look at their last three seasons, the only thing Cutch has on Brantley is volume of games played. Brantley has been a better hitter (same wRC+, but I’ll take the one that comes with a .300 average and half the strikeout rate) and a wildly better baserunner and defender.” With a slight age advantage to boot, there was quite a bit to like about Brantley.

It was a lively debate — and one that I was glad mostly to sit out while making observations that would keep me in the good graces of both of the warring MLBTR factions. Pro-Brantley: “He doesn’t walk. But he has super-elite contact ability that has allowed him to be a steadily outstanding producer of OBP.” Pro-Cutch: “.360+ OBP the past two years and still above-average power (which might play up in a smaller park). Plate discipline is as good as ever. Durability is a very fair point as well. Lack of platoon splits is nice.”

Ultimately, we predicted three-year, $45MM deals for both players. But that’s not how it has turned out. McCutchen secured a surprisingly hefty $50MM guarantee from the Phillies, who’ll bank on him as a steady and reliable (if not literally “indestructible”) asset for at least the next three seasons. That left us feeling optimistic about Brantley’s market, but word emerged this evening that he will not secure a third guaranteed season, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $32MM-ish deal with the Astros. Though Houston wants to get the bat in the lineup as much as possible, it wasn’t forced to take on extra injury risk with another promised campaign in order to lure Brantley.

All that being said … how do you view the predictions and signings? (Response order randomized; poll link for app users.)

How Would You Characterize The McCutchen & Brantley Outcomes?
Phillies overpaid; Astros got good value 63.61% (12,393 votes)
Astros took more risk; Phillies got the better/more reliable player 19.76% (3,849 votes)
Both contracts are fair -- MLBTR just whiffed on its predictions! 16.63% (3,240 votes)
Total Votes: 19,482

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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A year ago on this date, only one of the top ten names on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents of the 2017-18 offseason had decided on their team for the upcoming season.  That player, in fact, wasn’t technically even a free agent at all — Masahiro Tanaka decided against opting out of his contract with the Yankees, thus avoiding the open market altogether.

So, at least in comparison to the uniquely slow pace of last year’s offseason, we’ve already seen quite a bit of action on the free agent front this winter.  After today’s news of Wilson Ramos’ deal with the Mets, seven of the top 25 players in this year’s top 50 ranking have already reached agreements, including three members of the top ten — Patrick Corbin (#3) signed with the Nationals, Nathan Eovaldi (#7) re-signed with the Red Sox, and J.A. Happ (#9) has reportedly agreed to rejoin the Yankees.

There have been a lot of rumors swirling around the remaining seven players in our top ten, and it’s anyone guess as to which will be the next to sign.  Let’s take a look at where things reportedly stand with each member of this septet….

Bryce Harper: With Harper and agent Scott Boras reportedly looking for nothing less than the biggest contract in baseball history, it would admittedly be surprising to see the former Nationals outfielder come off the board next.  Harper, his wife Kayla, and Boras has reportedly held court with multiple teams in private meetings in Las Vegas, though the specific identities of these teams isn’t yet clear.  Teams like the Dodgers, White Sox, Phillies, and Cardinals are known to have some level of interest in Harper’s services, while we’ve also heard some teams (like the Nationals and Yankees) seemingly count themselves out of “Harper’s Bazaar,” as Boras calls it.  Speculative fits like the Cubs or Giants could also be out due to budget constraints.  Boras has a penchant for waiting until deep into the offseason to find a satisfactory contract for his clients, so I’d guess that we won’t know the identity of Harper’s next team before 2018 is over.

Manny Machado: The star infielder is set for in-person meetings with the White Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and at least one more team this week.  It’s impossible to mention Machado’s free agency without also mentioning Harper, as the two share many of the same suitors and it seems highly unlikely that one team would be willing to spend big enough to add both to the same roster.  Machado’s controversial history of overly-aggressive (or, as some might say, outright dirty) play has been a factor in his market, as was his October interview with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal about his admitted lack of maximum effort on some plays, and his admission that “I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle.’ ”  While questions about Machado’s personality are legitimate, especially as he is looking for a record-breaking contract, it’s also possible some teams are using Machado’s interview as leverage to try and lower his price tag.  We should know more about Machado’s status once these in-person meetings are complete, and if a team’s concerns about his work ethic are erased after a face-to-face meetings, it isn’t impossible that a signing could come before Christmas.

Dallas Keuchel: Another Boras client, Keuchel might not have quite as long a wait on the market since there has already been something of a run on free agent starting pitching, as Corbin, Eovaldi, Happ, and Charlie Morton have all found new teams.  On the trade front, there now seems to be less chance that the Indians could deal Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, while the Mets’ flurry of acquisitions have made a Noah Syndergaard trade less likely.  Teams that missed out on these frontline arms may now be willing to meet Keuchel’s hefty asking price, and give up the draft pick compensation necessary to sign the lefty since he rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer.  Teams like the Reds, Braves, Padres, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Nationals have all been reported to have varying levels of Keuchel’s services.

Craig Kimbrel: Teams would also need to surrender a draft to sign Kimbrel since he turned down a QO from the Red Sox, and might also have to fork over the biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher.  A big initial ask is a common negotiating tactic, of course, though even at a lower amount, Kimbrel and his representatives clearly see him worthy of a deal akin to Aroldis Chapman/Kenley Jansen money.  The Cardinals and Phillies have both been linked to Kimbrel, and the Red Sox may or may not still be in on their former closer.  The recent signings of Jeurys Familiar and Joe Kelly indicate that the bullpen market is starting to move, though Kimbrel is obviously in a higher financial level than those types of contracts.

Yasmani Grandal: The Angels, Astros, and White Sox have all been linked to Grandal, though Houston might be out of the catching market after signing Robinson Chirinos.  Chicago also recently added James McCann, though that isn’t quite as significant an obstacle to a future move for Grandal, should the Sox deal Welington Castillo and then install Grandal as the starter ahead of McCann.  Even before Ramos became a Met, Grandal’s biggest competition has likely been J.T. Realmuto, though teams have thus far balked at meeting the Marlins’ large asking price in a trade.  The Mets are one team that decided to simply sign a quality catcher rather than trade for Realmuto, and another backstop-needy team could do the same by inking Grandal, though he’s another QO free agent.  There has been some indication that the Marlins could decide by Christmas whether to keep or trade Realmuto, so once that decision is made either way, Grandal’s market will gain some clarity.

A.J. Pollock: Here’s another player who turned down a qualifying offer, and another with a pricey contract demand (reportedly in the $80MM range).  The Mets, Braves, Reds, and Astros are known to have interest in Pollock, plus with so many trade rumors swirling around other outfielders, more suitors could easily emerge as more outfield spots are created.

Michael Brantley: Machado and Brantley are the only two of these seven players who don’t have QO compensation tied to their services, which gives Brantley in particular a boost as he tests free agency for the first time in his career.  Furthermore, Brantley also appears willing to try playing first base, which adds a bit of extra versatility to his repertoire for any interested teams, even if Brantley would still primarily play as an outfielder.  What could dampen enthusiasm, however, is Brantley’s initial asking price, reportedly something akin to a $20MM average annual value over three years.  We’ve already heard that the Braves aren’t meeting that price, and other Brantley suitors like the Astros, Cardinals, and White Sox are also sure to aim for a lower number.

(poll link for app users)

Which Free Agent Is The Next To Sign?
Yasmani Grandal 25.16% (5,213 votes)
Dallas Keuchel 22.18% (4,595 votes)
A.J. Pollock 17.86% (3,701 votes)
Michael Brantley 14.98% (3,104 votes)
Manny Machado 11.23% (2,326 votes)
Craig Kimbrel 4.75% (985 votes)
Bryce Harper 3.83% (793 votes)
Total Votes: 20,717

Trade Candidate Faceoff: Yasiel Puig Vs. Nicholas Castellanos

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For at least the past year, a pair of right fielders – the Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig and the Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos – have been among the majors’ biggest potential trade chips. Neither player has gone anywhere to this point, but it now looks like only a matter of time before both Puig and Castellanos don new uniforms.

During this week’s Winter Meetings, reports surfaced indicating the Dodgers are “actively” attempting to trade Puig and the Tigers are “determined” to ship out Castellanos. As of now, Puig and Castellanos haven’t been connected to the same teams in the rumor mill, but it stands to reason they’d have similar suitors. Los Angeles may even replace Puig with Castellanos, who would likely offer analogous on-field value and perhaps cause fewer behind-the-scenes headaches.

A native of Cuba, Puig signed with the Dodgers to great fanfare in 2012 and made a dazzling debut the next season, when he was as captivating as he was productive. The early version of Puig – the one who often inspired awe at the plate, in the field and on the bases – was not only a perfect fit for Hollywood, but he was also among the majors’ elite players. From 2013-14, Puig’s first two seasons, only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Paul Goldschmidt finished ahead of him in wRC+ (153). Meanwhile, just those four and 10 other position players outdid Puig in fWAR (9.5), despite the fact that he accrued fewer plate appearances than everyone near the top of the leaderboard.

Had Puig continued to produce at anything resembling the blistering pace of his first two seasons, it’s possible the Dodgers may have worked to extend him by now. Instead, the 28-year-old’s numbers nosedived after his second season, and his relationship with the Dodgers has soured along the way. Thanks in part to those factors, Puig’s entering his last year of team control, and it seems like a strong possibility that he has taken his final at-bat with the championship-contending Dodgers.

There haven’t been any reports of problems between Castellanos and the Tigers, on the other hand. Nevertheless, as a team in a rebuild, Detroit’s positioned to bid goodbye to Castellanos – whom it chose in the first round of the 2010 draft. Like Puig, the soon-to-be 27-year-old Castellanos is entering his final season of control, and the two players are projected to earn matching $11.3MM salaries in 2019. The similarities continue in the form of their respective outputs dating back to 2016, Castellanos’ breakout season.

Since Castellanos finally began living up to the billing he had as a prospect, he has accumulated 1,790 PAs and 7.0 fWAR on the strength of a .285/.336/.495 batting line – good for a healthy 121 wRC+. During the same period, Puig totaled far fewer PAs (1,382) but still managed 5.8 fWAR, thanks largely to a .264/.334/.470 slash and a 115 wRC+. Puig also swiped 35 bases, easily trumping Castellanos’ seven, and destroyed his fellow trade candidate in the field. From 2016-18, only nine outfielders piled up more Defensive Runs Saved than Puig’s 29. Meanwhile, Castellanos has struggled to find a position – he was a butcher at third base from 2016-17 and also fared poorly in the outfield last season. Consequently, Castellanos’ future may be at first base or designated hitter.

Aside from their dissimilarities in the field and on the bases, the two right-handed hitters have also provided their offensive production in different ways. Castellanos tortured left-handers from 2017-18 – a 308-PA sample in which he slashed .338/.386/.585 (159 wRC+) – whereas Puig was borderline unplayable versus southpaws in the same span. Although Puig was a formidable presence against lefties earlier in his career, they held him to a feeble .197/.292/.320 line and a horrid 66 wRC+ over the previous two seasons and 259 PAs. As a result, the Dodgers limited his playing time when a righty wasn’t on the hill last season, reportedly leading to discontentment from Puig and an open-minded attitude toward a trade.

Both Puig and Castellanos may well have new homes come 2019, potentially joining the top free-agent corner outfielders – Bryce Harper, Michael Brantley and McCutchen – in that regard. McCutchen’s already off the board, and for teams that aren’t in position to ink Harper to a record contract or hand Brantley a lucrative multiyear payday, Puig and Castellanos could represent appealing alternatives. The question is: Which player would you rather have?

(poll link for app users)

Which trade candidate do you prefer?
Nicholas Castellanos 58.65% (7,492 votes)
Yasiel Puig 41.35% (5,282 votes)
Total Votes: 12,774

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: How Much Will Dallas Keuchel Earn In Free Agency?

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The starting pitching market is off to a rather solid start, even if the movement hasn’t exactly been fast and furious. Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi topped MLBTR’s predicted contract values, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton appear to be landing in range of their own anticipated prices, and Lance Lynn scored a surprising three-year pact.

We’ve seen former Astros lefty linked to a variety of teams, but his market has not been as hot as those of some other hurlers. Multiple reports have the Reds and Phillies in the mix. The Blue Jays are involved, though it’s fair to wonder to what extent. The Braves have been connected, and disconnected. It’s certainly not hard to imagine some other clubs with interest, though we clearly haven’t seen a bidding war develop to this point.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Keuchel would secure a four-year, $82MM deal, with the bet being that teams would be willing to promise him a significant AAV but not a terribly long term entering his age-31 campaign. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs pegged the value just a shade higher than we did, at 4/$84MM .Others were somewhat more bullish, with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and his anonymous expert predicting a five-year pact in the $95MM to $105MM range.

Given how the market has developed to this point, what do you expect? Will Keuchel find himself frozen out of the biggest contracts? Do the early signings set the stage for a big payday? Or, perhaps, is he still on track to land where MLBTR guessed at the start of the offseason? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)

Estimate Dallas Keuchel's Free Agent Contract
Something in the range of the four-year, $82MM MLBTR prediction 42.47% (5,631 votes)
It'll end up being a disappointment, but still a big ($50MM+) contract 33.49% (4,441 votes)
He'll get to five years and perhaps even reach $100MM 14.52% (1,925 votes)
Keuchel is headed for a pillow contract or weak multi-year deal 9.52% (1,263 votes)
Total Votes: 13,260

Poll: Grading The Goldschmidt Trade

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First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, he of the career .297/.398/.532 line, was one of the most coveted assets on the offseason trade market. After a bitterly disappointing end to the Diamondbacks season, in which the club won just eight out of their final 28 games after staking a claim to top of the division on August 30th, a full-scale shuffling of parts was sure to be in order.  The club was almost certainly set to lose ace Patrick Corbin, who this week signed a monster $140MM deal with Washington, plus center-field stalwart A.J. Pollock, who, despite several injury-marred campaigns, posted a robust 14.9 fWAR in his final five seasons with the team.  And flimsy depth on the 25-man roster and in the upper minors paired with a system devoid of high-impact talent to offer a mostly inauspicious outlook in seasons to come.

Was it finally to time to cash in on the organization’s most valued trade chip?  The answer, in the end, was a resounding “yes”: On Wednesday, the organization finally agreed to a package with the 31-year-old’s most oft-rumored suitor, the St. Louis Cardinals.  25-year-old right-hander Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly, 24, are the two most notable pieces going back to Arizona in the deal; Andy Young, a 24-year-old minor league infielder, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick are also part of the return for the D’Backs.

Goldschmidt, of course, is entering the final year of a contract that will pay him just $14.5MM in 2019. His presence figures to move defensive yo-yo Matt Carpenter back to his original home at third base, where the 33-year-old has, encouragingly, graded out as mostly above average with the glove in limited time over the last two years after a series of dreadful campaigns in the middle portion of the decade.

Infielder Jedd Gyorko and 1B/COF Jose Martinez, then, would seem to be left bench-ridden, and could be prime trade chips in the weeks to come. Speculatively, major bullpen upgrades could be in order — as a whole, the unit posted an abysmal 4.50 xFIP and 4.34 BB/9 last season, both of which ranked in the bottom five across the league. Though the departing package was significant, the Redbirds are left with a most prominent feather in their collective cap: with nine big-league-tested starting pitchers in the fold for next season, and a super surplus at catcher — the immortal Yadier Molina, plus top prospect Andrew Knizner — the Cards figure to lose very little in present-day value.

For the Diamondbacks, the return may have eclipsed even their wildest hopes, with one executive reportedly dubbing the package a “boatload.”  Weaver and Kelly come with a combined 11 seasons of team control, and each should project around league average in the upcoming campaign. Kelly, a former top 50 prospect, seems especially intriguing — with the offensive baseline at catcher approaching its all-time nadir (catchers slashed a putrid .232/.304/.372 as a whole last season, for an 84 wRC+), the 24-year-old needs only to supplement his sterling defense with marginal offensive production to become an above-average big leaguer.

So, how would you grade this deal for each club?

Grade the Paul Goldschmidt acquisition for the Cardinals
A 68.34% (15,642 votes)
B 23.34% (5,342 votes)
C 5.58% (1,278 votes)
F 1.57% (359 votes)
D 1.17% (268 votes)
Total Votes: 22,889
Grade the Goldschmidt trade for the Diamondbacks
B 34.17% (7,283 votes)
C 31.07% (6,621 votes)
A 17.90% (3,814 votes)
D 11.00% (2,345 votes)
F 5.86% (1,248 votes)
Total Votes: 21,311

MLBTR Poll: Early NL East Moves

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The National League East always seemed likely to be a place of great intrigue this winter and beyond, but things have been quite a bit more raucous than might have been anticipated. Four potential east coast powerhouses are presently engaged in an offseason arms race that could lead to a riveting regular season.

While there’s still a ton of time left to make acquisitions this winter, the Braves, Mets, Nationals, and Phillies have each already pulled off some notable strikes. (Marlins fans will have to be content with some minor-league signings.) We’ll round up the moves — for all the details, click the provided links — and then leave a question for MLBTR readers to answer.

It certainly wouldn’t be fair to compare these decisions as if they represent the entirety of an offseason. After all, all of these clubs are clearly set up for additional acquisitions — which is a large part of what makes this so fun to witness. Instead, we’ll put it this way: which of these organizations has made the wisest early moves? (Link for app users.)

Which NL East Team Is Off To The Best Start To The Offseason?
Nationals 42.24% (5,144 votes)
Braves 24.66% (3,003 votes)
Mets 20.10% (2,447 votes)
Phillies 13.00% (1,583 votes)
Total Votes: 12,177

Poll: Should The Marlins Trade J.T. Realmuto This Offseason?

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Entering the offseason, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Marlins would trade their best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto, prior to the 2019 campaign. Not only is Miami a rebuilding team whose control over Realmuto is dwindling (he’s due to become a free agent after 2020), but the 27-year-old has shown no desire to sign an extension with the club.

At this point, a trade of Realmuto hardly seems imminent, but considering the offseason’s still in its infancy, there’s ample time for a deal to come together. However, in order for that to happen, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price for Realmuto, as Buster Olney of ESPN reported Nov. 16 that the Fish are seeking a “beyond staggering” return for the All-Star backstop. Since then, National League East rival Washington – a well-known Realmuto suitor – may have taken itself out of the sweepstakes by signing Kurt Suzuki to a two-year, $10MM contract in free agency. The Nationals could still try for Realmuto, who’d form an elite tandem with Suzuki, but there’s clearly less of a need for them to pay a bounty for a catcher than there was at the outset of the offseason.

Certainly, should talks between the Nationals and Marlins end or continue to stagnate, there would still be a slew of teams interested in Realmuto. As arguably the majors’ premier catcher, Realmuto would easily improve other prospective 2019-20 contenders such as the Astros, Rockies, Mets, Athletics, Brewers, Braves and Dodgers, to name some. As of now, though, the sense from other clubs is that the Marlins will retain Realmuto heading into next season, per Olney.

Because the Marlins seem unlikely to contend in the next two years, it’s fair to wonder whether they’d be mistaken in holding Realmuto this winter. In the Marlins’ view, Realmuto’s value actually increased in 2018, according to Olney, though it may be unrealistic on their part to expect a repeat in 2019. Even if the well-rounded Realmuto continues his run as a top-tier catcher next season, his diminishing team control isn’t going to do his trade value any favors. Plus, by keeping Realmuto, Miami would run the risk of a decline in performance and/or a significant injury – either of which would be disastrous from its perspective.

While many are tired of seeing the Marlins sell off proven veterans, as they did last offseason with Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon, they may not have a choice with Realmuto. Even after last winter’s firesale, the Marlins continue to feature a below-average farm system, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball America. Moving Realmuto would immediately better their outlook on that front, and if they’re going to trade him, it may be in their best interests to do so in the next few weeks. After all, with bona fide No. 1 options Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos headlining the free-agent catcher class, Miami could soon have two fewer suitors for Realmuto if it doesn’t act quickly.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Paxton Swap

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As usual, Thanksgiving weekend brings a lull in the transactional market. We’ve yet to see a ton of movement at the top of the free agent class, so there isn’t much to digest on that front. But there has been one quite notable trade: four days ago, the Yankees landed James Paxton from the Mariners, as we wrote up in full at the time. That swap was significant enough to warrant further assessment from the MLBTR readership. After all, it sets the stage for both clubs for the rest of the winter.

For the Yankees, getting Paxton means saving some immediate salary as against a generally commensurate free agent arm. He’s an excellent hurler, albeit one with health questions. Notably, the organization added a high-quality piece at an area of need without adding any ink to the long-term balance sheet. That’s important whether or not the team has designs on any massive free agent outlays, as it will help maintain long-term flexibility.

Of course, the expectation remains that the Bronx Bombers will add another notable rotation piece while also exploring other intriguing assets on the open market. If the organization was operating under any financial limitations, whether via hard limits or soft ones, then it’ll now presumably be able more comfortably to absorb salary as it chases Patrick Corbin or another starter, Zach Britton or some other reliever, or perhaps top-of-the-market stars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

Nabbing Paxton obviously didn’t come free, though. The Yankees parted with two hurlers who could’ve contributed to the MLB staff now and for years to come in Justus Sheffield and Erik Swanson. Also heading out the door was an increasingly interesting, though not very widely hyped, outfield prospect named Dom Thmpson-Williams.

On the Mariners side, picking up those new pieces helps set the organization up for what it hopes will be a fairly brief reloading period. Sheffield has long been graded a top prospect, though many have come to doubt his upside (and his ability to stick in the rotation at all). Clearly, the M’s like his ability and think he can make good on his promise. While Swanson is not nearly as well-known, he seems to have a legitimate shot at turning into a productive MLB piece in Seattle.

Prioritizing near-term talent may have been a reflection, at least in part, of the sorts of offers that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto received. But it likely represents a part of his stated strategy to target the opening of a new contention period in 2020 or 2021. There’s no reason to doubt that both of the hurlers will reach the majors at some point in the coming years, so they’ll each have a shot at carving out a role in what the front office hopes will be a cost-effective and capable pitching staff.

So, how do you grade this deal for both clubs?

In New York … (link for app users):

Grade the James Paxton Swap for the Yankees.
B 45.55% (11,977 votes)
A 36.23% (9,526 votes)
C 13.55% (3,562 votes)
D 2.60% (683 votes)
F 2.07% (545 votes)
Total Votes: 26,293

And on the Seattle side … (link for app users):

Grade the James Paxton Swap for the Mariners.
B 37.34% (8,848 votes)
C 29.73% (7,045 votes)
A 22.11% (5,240 votes)
D 7.90% (1,873 votes)
F 2.91% (689 votes)
Total Votes: 23,695

Poll: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado And The Phillies

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On several occasions over the past decade, the Phillies have shown a willingness to spend among the league’s elite. However, because the Phillies were recently amid a full-fledged rebuild, the big-market club took major steps backward in the spending department. Last year, with Philadelphia aiming to make a sizable leap in the standings, the team began with a modest $95MM-plus in commitments. Two expensive signings from last offseason – right-hander Jake Arrieta (three years, $75MM) and first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) –  easily served as the Phillies’ priciest players in 2018, and the duo did help the team make legitimate progress. The Phillies notched their best record since 2012 (80-82), totaling 14 more wins than they amassed in 2017, but they finished under .500 for the sixth consecutive season and extended their playoff drought to seven years.

Santana is now on the block, though his potential exit isn’t a sign that the Phillies are looking to cut costs. Quite the contrary, actually, as owner John Middleton has publicly declared that the Phillies won’t be bashful when it comes to doling out money. In fact, while discussing the Phillies’ offseason plans on Friday, Middleton proclaimed  that “we’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”

Even before Middleton made it known that Philadelphia’s looking to go big-game hunting, expectations were that the franchise would spend aggressively this winter. After all, the open market now features two of the most enticing free agents ever in outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado. Combining the Phillies’ spending capabilities with the lack of guaranteed money on their books beyond 2020, pursuits of both Harper and Machado have seemed like foregone conclusions. Both players stand a strong chance of surpassing the richest contract in baseball history – the 13-year, $325MM extension outfielder Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Marlins in 2014 – and the Phillies are among the teams truly capable of spending that type of cash. What’s more, if any one organization is going to sign both Harper and Machado, the Phillies are on a very short list of realistic possibilities.

The need for Harper, Machado or both in Philadelphia is obvious, as either player would clearly boost a position player group which ranked 22nd in runs and 23rd in fWAR in 2018. The Phillies’ 48 hitters accounted for 12.4 fWAR, while Machado (6.2) and Harper (3.5) combined for 9.7 by themselves. The two 26-year-olds have been among the game’s most feared hitters throughout their decorated careers, though Machado has also provided plenty of value as a third baseman. The former Oriole and Dodger would do the same in Philadelphia, which got so-so production at the hot corner from Maikel Franco, current free agent Asdrubal Cabrera and J.P. Crawford, among others, in 2018. Franco’s now penciled in as the Phillies’ 2019 starter at third, but that spot’s ripe for an upgrade.

Philadelphia is seemingly even worse off at shortstop, Machado’s preferred position and where he spent the majority of last season. Machado didn’t have a banner year defensively, but he did place first among shortstops in wRC+ (141) and second in both home runs (38) and fWAR. The Phillies, on the other hand, received a microscopic 0.7 fWAR from shortstops Scott Kingery, Crawford, Cabrera and Pedro Florimon, and their combined wRC+ (74) was barely more than half of Machado’s.

Fortunately for the Phillies, their 2018 outfield wasn’t as toothless as the left side of their infield. That doesn’t mean it’s an area of strength, however. Aside from slugger Rhys Hoskins, who overcame horrific defense to log a respectable fWAR (2.9), the Phillies got mediocre or worse overall production from outfield regulars Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr. Going forward, Hoskins may shift to first base, which explains the team’s willingness to trade Santana and could increase the need for Harper or another high-end outfielder. Harper, like Hoskins, had a year to forget in the field. Defensive ineptitude has hardly been the norm for Harper since he debuted in 2012, though, and he made up for it to an extent by notching another quality year at the plate.

Signing Harper would improve the Phillies’ near-term chances of returning to contention, and there’s an added bonus: Landing him would be a blow to the division-rival Nationals, Harper’s only team to date. The Nats, the reigning NL East champion Braves and the Mets will each push for supremacy in the division next season, but the Phillies could wind up as the favorites if general manager Matt Klentak uses Middleton’s money effectively this winter. While there are plenty of avenues Klentak could explore that don’t involve Harper or Machado, speculation about those two heading to Philadelphia will persist until they officially come off the market.

Will the Phillies land Harper, Machado or both?
They won't sign either player 31.15% (4,791 votes)
They'll sign Harper 29.34% (4,513 votes)
They'll sign Machado 22.68% (3,489 votes)
They'll sign both 16.83% (2,588 votes)
Total Votes: 15,381
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