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Poll: Paul Goldschmidt’s Future

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Even though he still has another year of team control remaining, superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – a Diamondback since they chose him in the eighth round of the 2009 draft – may be in his final days with the club. While the path the Diamondbacks will take during the offseason is uncertain, general manager Mike Hazen hasn’t ruled out a full rebuild. Arizona’s in a bind in terms of payroll, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this week, and set to lose two of its best players to free agency in left-hander Patrick Corbin and center fielder A.J. Pollock.

In the event those factors do lead to a teardown in the desert, the logical move may be to at least gauge interest in the 31-year-old Goldschmidt. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier this week Arizona will indeed “listen on” Goldschmidt, as dealing him would help restock a barren farm system which Baseball America (subscription required) ranks as the game’s fourth worst.

Between the free-agent and trade markets, Goldschmidt would easily be the premier first base option available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, there don’t seem to be any starting-caliber first basemen set to reach free agency, while all of Goldschmidt’s fellow trade candidates at the position pale in comparison to the six-time All-Star. Those factors – not to mention Goldschmdt’s affordable salary (he’ll play 2019 on a $14.5MM club option) – would likely lead to widespread interest.

2019 will be the final season of the six-year, $46.5MM extension (including the option) he inked with the D-backs entering 2013. The decision to lock up Goldschmidt before he turned into an elite player will go down as one of the best in franchise history, given that the pact has been a steal from the get-go. He broke out in earnest during the first year of it, turning in a 6.0-fWAR campaign, and hasn’t really slowed down since. Now coming off a 5.1-fWAR season (the fifth year of at least 5.0 fWAR in his career), Goldschmidt’s facing an uncertain future for the first time since signing his team-friendly contract.

The D-backs may well keep Goldschmidt through the winter and try to extend one of their all-time greats, regardless of whether they expect to bounce back from an 82-win season in 2019. But if the team doesn’t think it’s going to contend in the near future, or if it’s simply unable to come to terms with Goldschmidt, we may have seen the last of him in a Diamondbacks uniform.

(poll link for app users)

Do you expect the D-backs to trade Paul Goldschmidt this offseason?
Yes 55.83% (5,677 votes)
No 44.17% (4,492 votes)
Total Votes: 10,169

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Will The Yankees Sign Manny Machado?

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This has been the week from hell for the Yankees, whose season ended Tuesday at the hands of the hated Red Sox in the American League Division Series. Boston summarily disposed of the Yankees in four games, further cementing itself as the superior team in 2018 after it won the AL East with ease in the regular season, finishing with a 108-54 record to New York’s 100-62 mark. To make matters worse, the Yankees learned Friday that they’ll play a large portion of 2019 without one of their most valuable players, shortstop Didi Gregorius, who needs Tommy John surgery on his right (throwing) elbow. Only two of the Yankees’ position players posted a higher fWAR this year than Gregorius, who recorded a 4.6 mark in 569 plate appearances to rank eighth among big league shortstops.

Now, with the Red Sox potentially on their way to a fourth World Series title since 2004 and the Yankees having been dealt a brutal blow well before 2019 begins, the question is: How will the Evil Empire strike back? Well, if the Yankees plan to go big-game hunting in free agency – as they’ve done on many occasions – perhaps they’ll respond by signing the Dodgers’ Manny Machado. The four-time All-Star infielder, 26, is set to hit the open market, where he’s sure to become one of the highest-paid players in the history of the sport.

Even with a healthy Gregorius, New York would’ve been a speculated suitor for Machado, whom it chased at this past summer’s trade deadline before the AL East rival Orioles dealt him to the Dodgers. With Gregorius in the fold, Machado likely would have slotted in at third base in 2019, sending AL Rookie of the Year Candidate Miguel Andujar to first base or designated hitter. Andujar’s on the heels of a huge season offensively, but he was a butcher at third, finishing last among major league infielders in both Defensive Runs Saved (minus-25) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-16). Despite Andujar’s woeful season in the field, he may well remain at third next year if the Yankees add Machado, considering both Gregorius’ health and Machado’s preference to line up at short.

For the majority of his career, which began in 2012, Machado has played third, where he has been eminently successful. Machado has registered 84 Defensive Runs Saved and a 50.6 UZR at the position, while he has logged minus-10 DRS at short and a minus-6.1 UZR at shortstop, with all of the damage having come this past regular season (minus-12 DRS, minus-6.5 UZR) after he moved back to short. In spite of his defensive shortcomings, Machado served as one of the majors’ preeminent players in 2018, notching the game’s ninth-highest fWAR among position players (6.2) on the strength of his fourth straight 30-home run campaign. He’d give the Yankees’ already strong offense yet another formidable hitter, joining Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez and Andujar, though the right-handed Machado wouldn’t provide the right-heavy lineup variety in terms of handedness.

Speaking of Torres, the Yankees may simply turn short over to him next year as they await Gregorius’ return and entrust the keystone to a far less expensive alternative to Machado. There are plenty of familiar veteran second basemen set to hit free agency in the offseason, including now-Yankee Neil Walker, though no one from the group is anywhere near the caliber of Machado.

For now, Machado and the still-alive Dodgers are focused on winning a championship, but it seems doubtful he’ll return to LA thereafter. The club has an excellent third baseman in Justin Turner and a great shortstop in Corey Seager, who missed most of 2018 on account of TJ surgery, after all. Thus, regardless of how the Dodgers’ season ends, it seems Machado’s destined to put on a new uniform in 2019. Do you expect New York to be the team that awards him one of the richest contracts in the history of baseball in the offseason, or will someone else win the much-anticipated derby?

(poll link for app users)

Will the Yankees sign Manny Machado?
No 52.15% (10,007 votes)
Yes 47.85% (9,181 votes)
Total Votes: 19,188

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Is The Most Intriguing General Manager Job?

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After recently polling MLBTR’s readership about which of the six open managerial positions had the most to offer, it only follows that we ask the same question about the three general manager vacancies.

For simplicity’s sake, let’s use “general manager” in this sense as the person in charge of a team’s baseball operations department, even if that official title could be something different (i.e. president of baseball ops) on a particular team.  If you’re a hypothetical executive who has multiple GM offers presented to them, deciding which job to take demands a big-picture view.  Which franchise has the most to offer a new GM in terms of resources, which range from everything from player payroll to front office staffing?  Would a GM have full control of baseball ops, or is there another rung above them on the organizational ladder?  Does a team already have some good players in place and is expecting to win, or is a rebuild under way, or will a rebuild be under way in the near future?

With all these factors (and more) in mind, let’s take a look at the three open GM jobs…

Mets: As disappointing as New York’s 2018 season was, this is still a team that boasts one of the game’s best pitching staffs, plus some intriguing young building blocks in Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario, and a healthy Michael Conforto.  If incumbent veterans like Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, and Todd Frazier can avoid the DL and regain some of their old productivity, the team’s lackluster lineup will already get a huge boost, not even factoring in what external additions can bring into the fold.  There is certainly opportunity for quick improvement in 2019, and since the team doesn’t have any payroll money guaranteed beyond the 2020 season, there’s plenty of room for extending in-house stars and adding some other notable salaries in trades or free agents.

That’s the good news about the Mets job, though as any follower of New York’s sports media could tell you, there’s also quite a bit of bad news.  It’s still unknown how much financial flexibility the Mets actually have, as while team payroll has cracked the $150MM mark in each of the last two seasons, that’s still a modest figure for a club that plays in the New York market.  There’s also the open question about how much autonomy a general manager truly has within the organization, given how owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon are so often accused of taking a heavy hand with their input in the baseball operations department.  For instance, it’s unusual that an incoming GM would be inheriting three influence senior members of a team’s current front office staff, and there is uncertainty if a new GM would really be allowed to fire John Ricco, J.P. Riccardi, and/or Omar Minaya unless ownership allows it.  Manager Mickey Callaway is also staying on for 2019, so a new general manager wouldn’t even able to select their own preferred voice in the dugout.  It also might not help that the Wilpons themselves are reportedly looking for different things in a general manager, as Jeff prefers to hire a younger GM with an analytics background, while Fred wants a more experienced name from a scouting and personnel background.

Giants: The main pro and the main con of the San Francisco job amount to the same thing — this is a team that expects to win.  Even if 2019 may be a season more focused on something of a rebuild-on-the-fly, there is little doubt that the franchise wants a turn-around after two straight losing seasons.  To this end, a new GM will have money to spend, as the Giants haven’t afraid of exceeding the luxury tax threshold in the past, and are now free for more big spending after (barely) getting payroll under the threshold this season to reset their escalating tax payment figure to zero.  There’s also no small amount of appeal in taking over one of baseball’s top-tier, most historically-rich franchises, and a team that has three World Series championships within the last decade.

The downside, of course, is that taking over such a team means taking on a lot of pressure.  There may be more of a case that the Giants need a rebuild rather than a reload, given how many expensive veteran contracts are on the books.  (And how more veteran additions could be coming, if the Giants stick to their logic from last offseason.)  Madison Bumgarner, the Giants’ best asset, is also scheduled for free agency after the 2019 season, so the contention window may be particularly short unless Bumgarner can be extended, though the team is at least open to listening to a GM that would suggest Bumgarner be traded.

There is also some question of autonomy within the chain of command, as long-time executive Brian Sabean is staying on in an upper-management role, plus Bruce Bochy is being retained as manager.  Team CEO Larry Baer has said, however, that the new baseball operations head will be reporting to him, and will have the freedom add new faces to the front office mix.  This could be a situation where the “new GM” is really a president of baseball operations, with a general manager also hired in a secondary role to handle day-to-day duties.

Orioles: The cleanest slate of the three jobs, the Orioles are undergoing a change in direction at the very top of the organization, as John and Louis Angelos take over ownership duties from their father, Peter.  It remains to be seen how the Angelos brothers’ style will differ from that of Peter Angelos’ style, though there has already been some indication that the Orioles are adopting a more standard approach to baseball operations (such as a new willingness to spend on international players).  It also isn’t clear if a new GM will have the full autonomy that the team’s recent media release claims, or if incumbent VP of baseball operations Brady Anderson will still have a major voice in the decision-making process.

This all being said, while it might take some years for a general manager to remake the Mets or Giants in their own image, the new Orioles GM can put their big stamp on the organization as early as this offseason.  Rather than navigate pre-existing payroll hurdles or expectations of contention, the new Orioles only has to focus on rebuilding for the next several years.  As low as the Orioles sunk in 2018, the lure of a total rebuild could be enticing to many candidates — Blue Jays baseball ops VP Ben Cherington, for one, would seemingly only leave his position in Toronto “to build an organization from the ground up,” according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  A new general manager also has something of a head start on the rebuilding process due to the number of young talents acquired by former baseball operations executive VP Dan Duquette in the trade deadline deals of Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Kevin Gausman, Darren O’Day, Brad Brach, and Jonathan Schoop.

(poll link for app users)

Which Is The Most Intriguing GM Job?
Giants 40.72% (4,267 votes)
Mets 31.91% (3,344 votes)
Orioles 27.36% (2,867 votes)
Total Votes: 10,478

Poll: Which Is The Most Intriguing Managerial Job?

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Six teams are currently on the hunt for new managers, leading to a flurry of rumors and reports about experienced skippers, and coaches/broadcasters/former players all linked to these jobs.  If you’re being offered your first shot at managing a big league team, obviously, you perhaps can’t be afford to be too picky — the same could be said of veteran ex-managers who don’t know if they’ll ever get another chance at running a dugout.

So technically, the question of “which job would you prefer to take?” might not apply to many candidates, but it’s just fine for a hypothetical poll here on MLB Trade Rumors.  All of these six openings have their pros and cons, and it really comes down to individual preference about what makes one job more attractive than another.  Would you prefer to manage a team that has shown a willingness to spend?  One with a proven organizational track record of success (and stability)?  A rebuilding club with a bunch of promising minor leaguers on the way?

Here are the six teams currently conducting a manager search…

Orioles: Nowhere to go but up after 115 losses, right?  Baltimore’s new manager will be entering an organization in a state of flux after a disastrous campaign, as the O’s are also looking for a new GM to replace Dan Duquette, as well as the Angelos brothers fully taking over the team’s operations from their father.  With the rebuild just underway, however, a new skipper wouldn’t be expected to win for at least a few years, creating a low-pressure teaching environment to help bring along the Orioles’ younger talents (some of whom were acquired in the team’s deadline fire sale).  There’s plenty of opportunity here for a manager to enter at day one and put their stamp on a new era of Orioles baseball.

Blue Jays: Another AL East team that is technically “starting” a rebuild, though the front office has unofficially been reloading the farm system over the last few years.  Some of those young names made their debuts in 2018, though the biggest stars of Toronto’s highly-touted minor league ranks (including Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) are still to come in 2019 or 2020.  Since GM Ross Atkins is targeting 2021 for the Jays’ return to contention, a new manager has two years of building and development ahead before expectations rise.  With payrolls topping the $160MM mark in each of the last two seasons, a new manager can be confident that ownership and the front office will eventually spend to add talent.

Reds: Similar to the situation with the Jays, Cincinnati’s new skipper will step into a situation where some of the heavy lifting has already been done in terms of rebuilding.  The Reds have built an interesting core of position players (Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, Jose Peraza, Jesse Winker, and franchise cornerstone Joey Votto) that should only improve once top prospect Nick Senzel cracks the big league roster.  The problem, of course, is a dearth of starting pitching, though the club is prepared to spend this winter to address that and other needs.

Rangers: Here’s another team in sore need of pitching help, which GM Jon Daniels has said “is a priority” for the coming offseason.  The Rangers are in an interesting, and perhaps unwelcome, spot compared to the other teams on this list, in that they’re not really clearly rebuilding or planning to contend in 2019.  This is what happens when a team almost entirely en masse, as neither the established players (Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor), the youngsters (Ronald Guzman, Willie Calhoun) or the former star prospects in between the two camps (Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara) particularly distinguished themselves last year.  That said, a new voice in the dugout could help in unleashing the talent that this group clearly possesses, plus there’s organizational stability in the form of Daniels, who is the game’s second-longest tenured general manager.

Angels: What manager wouldn’t relish the opportunity to lead the game’s best player in Mike Trout, or the game’s most fascinating player in Shohei Ohtani?  Combine those two with Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs and a host of young relievers, and there’s a lot to like about the Angels’ roster.  Beyond the star names, however, the Halos are still trying to fully get through a stunning onslaught of pitching injuries that have thinned the pitching depth (including sidelining Ohtani from the mound in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery).  The new Angels skipper will be expected to turn things around quickly, especially with Trout only under contract for two more seasons.  There are some big shoes to fill in the wake of Mike Scioscia’s departure, and it’s fair to wonder how much rope owner Arte Moreno will give to a manager who didn’t have a World Series title on his resume or the organizational influence that Scioscia held in the club.

Twins: If the team continues its yo-yo performance of the last four seasons under Paul Molitor, then it should be due for another winning season in 2019 — do we have a bizarro Giants/#OddYear scenario here?  In all seriousness, Minnesota might actually be in the best position of any of these six teams to contend next season, given the weakness of the AL Central.  The better odds might be on a bit of a step backwards as baseball operations heads Derek Falvey and Thad Levine figure out which of their young talents are actual building blocks and which might be trade chips.  A manager who can get Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano back on track, however, could make a quick impact.

(poll link for app users)

Which Managerial Job Looks Most Interesting?
Angels 43.97% (6,871 votes)
Blue Jays 19.51% (3,049 votes)
Reds 11.99% (1,873 votes)
Twins 11.64% (1,819 votes)
Orioles 7.78% (1,215 votes)
Rangers 5.12% (800 votes)
Total Votes: 15,627

Poll: Yankees’ Wild-Card Starter

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While we know the Yankees will host the Athletics in the American League wild-card game on Wednesday, it’s not yet clear which pitcher will start for either team. The A’s seem poised to take an unconventional path and roll with their bullpen all night, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported Saturday, while the Yankees are likely to take a more traditional path. New York’s brass is currently debating whether to start Luis Severino, J.A. Happ or Masahiro Tanaka, who comprise the top three in the team’s rotation.

No matter who starts for the Yankees, one thing’s obvious: He’s in for an extremely difficult test against Oakland, whose offense ranks fourth in the majors in runs scored. The A’s have been death on both right-handers (112 wRC+) and lefties (106), meaning the Yankees can’t base their pick largely on pitcher handedness, and own the majors’ best road wRC+ (116). They also lead the league in fly ball rate (38.9 percent) and rank third in home runs, which bodes well for a team set to play at HR-friendly Yankee Stadium.

The A’s power could help steer the Yankees away from Tanaka, a homer-prone righty whose HR-to-FB rate (17.7 percent) is the majors’ sixth highest among pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings this year. The left-handed Happ’s 30th in that category (13.4 percent), while Severino sits 45th (11.4 percent). On the other hand, the fact that Tanaka tends to shy away from fastballs could work in his favor. Tanaka has thrown his splitter 32 percent of the time this year, and according to Statcast, the A’s have only managed the majors’ second-worst weighted on-base average (.162) against that pitch. The 29-year-old’s main offering is his slider, which he has gone to 33 percent of the time. Oakland does place third in the majors in wOBA versus that pitch, though its .287 mark still doesn’t look that threatening. The A’s have also held their own against four-seam fastballs, evidenced by their .361 wOBA (ninth in the game), and that’s the pitch both Severino (50 percent) and Happ (59 percent) rely on the most.

The above numbers may factor into the Yankees’ decision for Wednesday, though if they make their call largely on upside, Severino will be the choice. The hard-throwing 24-year-old has been one of the sport’s most electrifying starters since last season, after all, and looked like an AL Cy Young front-runner during the first half of the season. Severino has experienced some turbulence since then, as he posted a horrid 5.57 ERA in the second half. At the same time, though, the righty still recorded excellent secondary numbers (10.86 K/9 against 2.00 BB/9, 3.37 FIP/3.06 xFIP), which suggests he deserved much better than his unsightly ERA, and finished the regular season allowing two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts.

Like Severino, Happ has been hot lately. Not only does Happ own a 2.62 ERA in the second half, but the 35-year-old has helped the Yankees to wins in nine of his 11 starts since they acquired him from the Blue Jays on July 26. However, his 4.21 FIP as a Yankee indicates fortune has been on his side. Tanaka, meanwhile, enjoyed a lights-out second half of the season in which he put up a 2.85 ERA/2.98 FIP with 9.41 K/9 and 1.61 BB/9. But it’s worth pointing out he’s fresh off back-to-back rough starts that saw him yield a combined eight earned runs in as many innings.

Based on numbers, selecting a starter against the A’s may not be a slam dunk for the Yankees. But in the end, the club’s choice might not even be on the mound for long. Whether it’s Severino, Tanaka or Happ, New York won’t gives its first-inning pick much rope Wednesday, largely because its bullpen is loaded with appealing choices. That relief corps was put to the test early in the Yankees’ wild-card game win last year, when the Twins teed off on Severino and chased him off the mound after he recorded just one out and allowed three earned runs. The Yankees’ bullpen saved them in a comeback victory in the Bronx that night, and they can only hope they won’t need that kind of help again in this season’s sudden death round.

(poll link for app users)

Who should start for the Yankees on Wednesday?
JA Happ 45.19% (4,176 votes)
Luis Severino 33.73% (3,117 votes)
Masahiro Tanaka 13.05% (1,206 votes)
Go with a bullpen game instead 8.04% (743 votes)
Total Votes: 9,242

MLBTR Poll: Likelihood Of Bryce Harper Returning To Nationals

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Last night, Bryce Harper and the Nationals played their final home game in a lost season. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, it was somewhat anticlimactic — and, for the same reason, perhaps appropriate for a club that has fallen well short of expectations.

To this point, both Harper and the Nats have expressed ample mutual admiration. But there’s no particular reason to think that the sides will line up on a late-breaking extension to keep Harper from reaching free agency. While that can’t be ruled out entirely, it seems far likelier that the 25-year-old will be issued, and will then decline, a qualifying offer.

Of course, the relationship could be re-started from the open market. Harper clearly seems open to considering a return, at least, and the team surely isn’t eager to part with a franchise-altering superstar. At the same time, practicalities — including the allure of other teams (and contract offers), on the one hand, and a ready-made replacement outfield unit in DC, on the other — could well make this an opportune moment for both sides to wish the other a fond farewell.

There’s time yet to consider Harper’s place in the broader market, including contract valuation and the best potential suitors. We’ll be assessing that closely over the coming months. For now, it seems a more appropriate time to gauge the sense of MLBTR readers on a simpler question — Harper’s likelihood of returning to the Nats — in a thoroughly unscientific manner. How would you characterize the situation as the ’18 campaign draws to a close?

(Link for app users.)

What Are The Odds Bryce Harper Will End Up Re-Signing With The Nats?
Unlikely 41.26% (5,864 votes)
Coin Flip 28.76% (4,088 votes)
No chance! 13.87% (1,971 votes)
Likely 13.23% (1,881 votes)
Almost certainly! 2.88% (410 votes)
Total Votes: 14,214

MLBTR Poll: National League Divisional Races

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Has this season flown by for anyone else? It may be hard to believe, but there are just over two weeks left in the regular season. That means it’s crunch time in some cases, with much of the focus landing on two National League divisions.

Were it not for the Nationals’ season-long mediocrity and the Phillies’ recent stumbles, the NL East might still be in play. But with a 7.5 game cushion, only a total calamity will keep the Braves from the crown now.

Things are much tighter in the other two groupings. Six teams are still heavily involved in both the divisional and Wild Card races.

True, the Diamondbacks are at risk of falling all the way out of reasonable contention. And the Cardinals are increasingly in a tough spot in the NL Central, though they are in much better shape in the Wild Card picture. But those teams are still not out of things entirely in the divisions, so we’ll include them in our pair of polls.

Which team do you expect to win the NL Central? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

Which Team Will Win The NL Central?
Cubs 61.05% (3,743 votes)
Brewers 33.21% (2,036 votes)
Cardinals 5.74% (352 votes)
Total Votes: 6,131

Which team do you expect to win the NL West? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

Which Team Will Win The NL West?
Rockies 53.33% (3,128 votes)
Dodgers 38.29% (2,246 votes)
Diamondbacks 8.37% (491 votes)
Total Votes: 5,865

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Clayton Kershaw’s Next Contract

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The 2018-19 free agent class doesn’t look quite as exciting now as it has promised to at points in the past. Still, it’s a notable assemblage of talent. And at the top of the list of pitchers sits future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw.

Of course, that statement comes with some caveats. In particular, Kershaw will need to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his deal. While that once seemed a foregone conclusion, Kershaw has not been quite his vintage self this season — or, in truth, in the campaign prior. With the backdrop of ongoing back problems, there are undeniably some cracks in the armor.

If Kershaw’s recent form has betrayed his mortality, though, it has still also illuminated his ongoing excellence and value. After all, in his 312 1/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season, he has compiled a 2.36 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Even with the reduction in his velocity and swinging-strike rate on display this year, Kershaw has been among the most effective starters in baseball. And the years of unquestioned dominance that came before still represent an important background factor.

All things considered, there’s not much reason to think that Kershaw can’t beat 2/$65MM in free agency. Whether he reaches the open market could still be in question, to be sure. It’s not hard to imagine a new agreement of some kind with the Los Angeles organization coming together before Kershaw is forced to decide on the opt-out clause (or, if he does exercise it, before qualifying offer decisions are finalized). Then again, he and the team know much more about his medical situation than do the rest of us, so perhaps there’s still some possibility he’ll simply opt into the remainder of the deal.

Regardless of how it comes to pass, Kershaw will presumably end up with a more-or-less market-driven rate of pay, even if a deal comes with the Dodgers before he’s formally a free agent. After all, Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management no doubt have a good idea what they think he’s worth, as does the L.A. front office.

For those of us on the outside looking in, it’s a bit more difficult to gauge. The Dodgers and others will surely be stingy, in particular, with the length of the commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season. But the focus here will be on the total cash posted rather than on how many seasons it’ll be spread over. Knowing what we know now, and presuming Kershaw finishes the season at his current trajectory and without any significant new injury issues, which level of total guarantee do you think he’ll sign at?

Guess Clayton Kershaw's Next Contract
$90MM to $125MM 27.10% (2,185 votes)
$125MM to $175MM 26.41% (2,129 votes)
$65MM (opt-in) 19.88% (1,603 votes)
$175MM+ 16.10% (1,298 votes)
$65MM to $90MM 10.51% (847 votes)
Total Votes: 8,062

Looking Ahead To Cole Hamels’ 2019 Option

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When the Cubs traded for Cole Hamels just days prior to the non-waiver deadline, he was largely viewed as a rental. The discrepancy between his performance at Globe Life Park in Arlington (6.41 ERA, 6.16 FIP, 16 of his 23 homers allowed) and his performance on the road (2.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP, seven homers) led to some speculation that he could at the very least make the Cubs think. However, few could’ve predicted this level of dominance to open his stint with the Cubs.

Through 34 innings, Hamels is sporting a masterful 0.79 ERA with a 30-to-8 K/BB ratio, no homers allowed and a 54.2 percent ground-ball rate that would be the best of his career over a full season. The 34-year-old allowed a whopping 44.9 percent hard-contact rate with the Rangers but has seen that mark plummet to 27.9 percent with the Cubs. A sub-1.00 ERA surely isn’t sustainable for the lefty, but fielding-independent metrics — 2.36 FIP, 3.19 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA — all feel he’s very legitimately improved his performance. He’s leaned far more heavily on his fastball, shying away from cutters/two-seamers and (to a lesser extent) his breaking offerings since switching uniforms.

The rapid turnaround considerably enhances the possibility that the Cubs would want to retain Hamels for the 2019 season, though as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports in his latest 10 Degrees column, the finances aren’t exactly straightforward. Per Passan, at the time of the trade, the Rangers agreed to pay the $6MM buyout on Hamels’ option. That money, however, wouldn’t go to the Cubs in the event that Chicago decides to exercise the option. So while some may have previously looked at Hamels as a $14MM decision for the Cubs, it’s a costlier one than that: either let the Rangers buy out the option or pay the full $20MM with no financial assistance from the left-hander’s former team.

It’s a small but dominant sample for Hamels, but if the improvements in his performance are as legitimate as they prove to be, a one-year deal worth $20MM for the Cubs would hardly be a stretch. Chicago already has plenty of starters under control for the 2019 season in Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly and Mike Montgomery, though the front office could conceivably look to dump Chatwood in a swap of bad contracts and/or look at Montgomery and Smyly in long relief/sixth starter roles. Creating that level of depth in the rotation would hardly be a bad thing for the Cubs — especially with so much uncertainty surrounding Darvish, Chatwood and Smyly.

Conversely, if the Cubs opt not to pay Hamels at a premium rate for the 2019 season, the veteran’s free-agent stock will be fascinating to monitor. Much has been made of Hamels already regaining the velocity he appeared to have lost early in the season, and his recent work with the Cubs has potentially set the stage for a multi-year deal in free agency. Even one month ago, that would’ve seemed a long shot at best.

A month ago, Hamels looked like a back-of-the-rotation rental destined for a one-year deal in free agency. Now, the final month of the season and any potential postseason appearances, will prove pivotal for both Hamels and the Cubs in terms of each party’s future — to say nothing of the Rangers, who’d apparently be absolved of a $6MM commitment if Hamels remains with the Cubs.

With the caveat that things can once again change dramatically in a month, let’s see where readers stand on the issue at the moment (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Will the Cubs exercise their option on Cole Hamels?
Yes. He's proven that he's still a top-tier pitcher (or at least worth a one-year, $20MM deal). 60.79% (4,732 votes)
No. He'll come back to earth between now and free agency (and/or the Cubs have too much money in the rotation as it is). 39.21% (3,052 votes)
Total Votes: 7,784

MLBTR Poll: Potential Landing Spots For Andrew McCutchen

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With the Giants slipping to a distant fourth place in the NL West, the team’s decision to place veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen on waivers yesterday may be the starting point of at least a light, late-August sell-off. Though the San Francisco organization obviously could still pull McCutchen back — particularly in the seemingly unlikely event that the team is still considering making him a qualifying offer — there’s good reason to think that it may decide instead to let him join another club with brighter hopes the rest of the season.

McCutchen is still owed in the neighborhood of $3MM for the remainder of the season — hardly an insignificant amount of money. It’s enough, certainly, to force any team considering a move to think hard about whether the veteran is really a worthwhile upgrade and compelling fit.

Teams weighing whether to make a claim, or to pursue a swap if McCutchen clears waivers, will surely be assessing just what version of the former superstar they’d likely receive. He’s showing less power than ever before but has been a quality on-base threat and above-average overall hitter. Given his diminished all-around capabilities, that’s not a particularly compelling package, though teams will surely also value McCutchen’s leadership attributes.

Notably, though, measures of his batted-ball quality suggest that Cutch is stinging the ball — perhaps making him a candidate to experience some positive regression down the stretch. Some clubs may also believe the power downturn could be righted in part by moving McCutchen to a more hitter-friendly home park.

In any event, the bottom line is that McCutchen is no longer a premium performer who’s good enough to force a fit on any roster. He’s playing at about a 2 WAR annual pace this season (per both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference), so even a Statcast-believing optimist would closely consider fit and value.

Here are a few organizations that make some amount of sense at a glance. (Links to Roster Resource depth charts; teams presented in alphabetical order.)

  • Astros: Suddenly engaged in a divisional dogfight, the defending World Series champs are no doubt looking for ways to get better in the final days of August. Whether McCutchen is the optimal target is certainly debatable, but the corner outfield mix is heavy on left-handed hitters (Josh Reddick, Tony Kemp, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher) and a switch-hitter (Marwin Gonzalez) who is better against right-handed pitching.
  • Athletics: Having surged into a first-place tie with the aforementioned Houston club, the A’s are surely perusing the wire for possibilities. Though the focus is on pitching, McCutchen would be a fairly clean fit on this roster. While youth has carried the club to this point, there are some questions surrounding some of the right-handed-hitting elements of the current outfield mix. In particular, Mark Canha has had a tough three-week stretch while Ramon Laureno was scuffling before a two-dinger outing last night. While the A’s would perhaps prefer to add a true center fielder, it’s hardly clear that there’s one to be found on this market.
  • Braves: McCutchen would be an improved version of the recently-acquired Adam Duvall, who has struggled badly since arriving in Atlanta but could still be optioned. It’s not exactly a pressing need, but might be an interesting way to provide a boost for a club that still has work to do to secure a surprising division title.
  • Cubs: With the offense sagging a bit of late, the Cubbies are no doubt at least considering a lineup infusion. Adding McCutchen would create some additional matchup possibilities in the outfield while perhaps freeing the club to reduce the role of struggling shortstop Addison Russell. Of course, the Cubs may also feel it’d unnecessarily clog their roster to add another righty corner bat with Kris Bryant hopefully nearing a return and the surprising David Bote still available.
  • Indians: As recently-acquired outfielder Leonys Martin battles a serious health issue, the Indians have had to go back to the drawing board to boost their outfield mix and improve their overall offensive profile in advance of the playoffs. The club is said to have pursued Adam Jones, another former up-the-middle superstar who’s still respected but is now best suited to playing the corner outfield and is no longer quite as compelling a presence at the plate. McCutchen is arguably a better target, and unlike Jones does not have no-trade protection.
  • Mariners: The Seattle org already picked up a right-handed outfield bat in Cameron Maybin, but he’s struggling. McCutchen wouldn’t likely represent an option in center, but perhaps the club could utilize him as part of the corner mix while bumping Dee Gordon back into the outfield and deploying Robinson Cano more regularly at second base. While the M’s continue to outperform expectations, they are looking at a tough path to the postseason and need to squeeze out every bit of value they can down the stretch if they hope to qualify.
  • Phillies: The Phils reportedly also chased Jones. As explained above, then, Cutch also seems a reasonable target. He’d likely take the lion’s share of time in right field in Philadelphia while adding another sturdy clubhouse asset to a mostly youthful team.
  • Rockies: The Colorado organization is right in the thick of things. But its outfield mix hasn’t been a strength. More importantly, it is overloaded with left-handed hitters. Adding a veteran righty bat would make lots of sense. And bringing in such a high-profile player would surely generate loads of interest in Colorado.
  • Yankees: The Yanks are showing patience as Aaron Judge heals up, as they seem destined for a Wild Card game barring a near-unfathomable swing in either direction. Still, the club has to be considering some lineup boosts. Adding McCutchen could be viewed as part of a plan to shift some players around and reduce the role of first baseman Greg Bird, though perhaps there are better ways to accomplish that.

So, which do you think is likeliest to land McCutchen? (Link for app users.)

Which Team Is Likeliest To Acquire Andrew McCutchen?
Indians 22.25% (2,298 votes)
Yankees 16.38% (1,691 votes)
Phillies 12.89% (1,331 votes)
Athletics 12.30% (1,270 votes)
Braves 8.03% (829 votes)
Astros 8.00% (826 votes)
Rockies 5.61% (579 votes)
Cubs 5.06% (523 votes)
Other 4.82% (498 votes)
Mariners 4.66% (481 votes)
Total Votes: 10,326
Show all

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