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Latest On Potential Mets Sale

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Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon are considering selling the franchise, though they may not make out as well as they hope if a deal does come together. Rumored bidder Wayne Rothbaum does indeed have interest in taking the Mets off the Wilpons’ hands, but only at a reduced price, according to Thornton McEnery of the New York Post.

“I think he likes the idea of $1 billion,” a source told McEnery. “It’s a round number and the Wilpons are not holding any cards without SNY.”

That wouldn’t be an ideal outcome for the Wilpons, whose financial situation has taken a hit as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even if half of a baseball season takes place this year, the Wilpons could lose up to $150MM, per McEnery.

Before the league shut down because of the coronavirus, the Wilpons nearly agreed to sell an 80 percent stake in the Mets to Steve Cohen for $2.6 billion, but those plans fell through. That transaction wouldn’t have included the SNY network, either. The Mets have recently been valued at $1.6 billion without SNY in the mix, writes McEnery, who hears that the idea of Cohen purchasing the team still isn’t off the table. A source told him “he’s the only one that makes sense” as a possible buyer.

Rothbaum, meanwhile, was part of the $1.2 billion bidding for the Marlins in 2017, but the team ended up going to a group headed by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter. If Rothbaum does eventually land the Mets, it’s possible one of Jeter’s former teammates could be a member of his ownership group. There has been talk of Alex Rodriguez and fiancee Jennifer Lopez owning some portion of a Rothbaum-led Mets franchise.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Oblique Injury

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Not long before the league shut down due to the ongoing pandemic, Mets right fielder Michael Conforto sustained an oblique strain that rendered him unlikely for Opening Day. The diagnosis came on March 11, just over two weeks from the since-postponed Opening Day, and the Mets didn’t provide a concrete timetable for Conforto’s expected return. The team still hasn’t put forth an official update on Conforto’s status — the indefinite delay to the season likely eliminated any urgency or obligation to do so — but the New York Post’s Mike Puma reports that Conforto is taking “regular” batting practice and appears to be largely back up to speed.

It’s been close to seven weeks since Conforto incurred what the club diagnosed as a Grade 1 strain of his right oblique. Grade 1 strains — the least severe on the scale — often sideline players for around a month or a bit more, although every injury situation is of course unique to the player in question. Still, it’s reasonable to expect based on his workout status and that historical context that Conforto would’ve been back up to speed by now. And it certainly stands to reason that whenever (or if) play is able to resume in 2020, that he’ll be ready to go for a second, abbreviated “spring” training camp.

The 27-year-old Conforto will be expected to play a pivotal role in the Mets’ offense, hitting in the heart of the order alongside the likes of reigning Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and a hopefully resurgent Robinson Cano. Conforto, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2014 draft, has solidified himself as the everyday right fielder and a well-above-average offensive contributor in parts of five seasons in Queens. He made his first All-Star team in 2017 and, over the past three years, has posted a combined .257/.363/.492 slash (129 wRC+, 131 OPS+) with 88 home runs, 74 doubles and three triples. He agreed to an $8MM salary this winter in his second trip through the arbitration process and remains under club control through the 2021 season.

Latest On Potential Sale Of Mets

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Even as a global pandemic rages, threatening the 2020 MLB season and leaving a murky economic outlook for the game of baseball, the Wilpon family continues to pursue a sale of the Mets. Indeed, it seems the desire has only increased since the collapse of a deal earlier this year with minority owner Steve Cohen.

The Wilpons would surely like to be able to reanimate that agreement, which crumbled just before the scope of the coronavirus crisis became evident. Now, as Thornton McEnery and Josh Kosman of the New York Post report, the Mets are feeling the pinch of the shutdown with the revenue spigot turned off.

Despite that apparent motivation, the Wilpon family isn’t willing to part with the profitable SNY sports network in the deal, per the report. That guaranteed cash flow would obviously be of particular interest under the circumstances, though that’s also the motivation for keeping it.

The Wilpons have reportedly set a $2.6B asking price — without the franchise control strings that had been involved in the Cohen agreement but also sans SNY. Most chatter suggests that’s now a fanciful figure under the dire economic circumstances, though as ever the market will provide the answer.

There’s even now some banter around the idea that Alex Rodriguez and fiancee Jenifer Lopez could benefit from the Wilpons’ tough spot. The celebrity duo seems to be taking serious steps towards a real bid. The Post reports that they could team up with former Marlins bidder Wayne Rothbaum to land the New York franchise. It’s anyone’s guess how this situation will develop over the coming weeks, but the stage is obviously set for a rather interesting process with quite the cast of characters.

A-Rod, J.Lo Take Step Towards Compiling Bid For Mets

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April 21: Rodriguez and Lopez approached Miami businessman Jorge Mas about joining their group, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), but the 57-year-old MasTec chairman declined the offer. Mas previously headed up his own group in hopes of purchasing the Marlins before the Derek Jeter/Bruce Sherman group won that bidding.

April 20: When the concept was first mentioned, it wasn’t clear whether Alex Rodriguez was seriously interested in headlining a bidding group for the Mets. But he and pop singer/fiancee Jenifer Lopez have recently taken at least one notable step towards a potential play for the franchise, Scott Soshnick of Variety reports.

Rodriguez, much like predecessor Barry Bonds, finished his playing days with one of the most impressive but deeply stained resumes in baseball history. Performance-enhancing drugs tarnished both players, though A-Rod has taken quite a different path since hanging up his spikes. With a series of major media roles, he has crafted a familiar post-PED profile.

Precisely what sort of bidding group might be compiled isn’t clear, but A-Rod and J.Lo have retained JPMorgan Chase to see about putting one together. There was never any doubt that the celebrity couple would need to participate with other, yet wealthier investors to take over the Mets. At last look, the current Wilpon family ownership group had yet to mark down its $2.6B sticker price for the organization.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether this story has legs — not just because of the obvious potential for gossip-rag fireworks. The Mets have had their issues over the years, but it’s awfully rare to see big-city teams hit the market. It seems all but inconceivable that the franchise value won’t take a hit in light of the coronavirus pandemic — whatever the long-term outlook, there’ll obviously be a major near-term operational shortfall — but whether and to what extent remains for the market to decide.

Does Baseball Have Its Next Zobrist?

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You tend to hear talk of “The Next [insert player’s name]” involving guys whose careers change something about the way we think about a sport. It’s often the earth-shaking stars — Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Lawrence Taylor types. But not always.

In baseball, we’ve heard talk for years of “The Next Ben Zobrist” or “Team X’s Ben Zobrist.” It’s one of those things that you tended to understand when you heard it. Zobrist embodied something new and different: he was a high-end, star-level performer masquerading as a regular old utility guy. Moving around the diamond, featuring a plate-discipline-driven offensive skillset, and playing in Tampa Bay … it took some time for Zobrist to make it on the map. But once he finally got the recognition he deserved, he became the archetype of a new breed of player.

While the rest of the league caught on to the idea of moving guys around the diamond more liberally, we haven’t yet seen a single player match Zobrist as a Swiss Army knife that’s actually really good at all its functions over a sustained, multi-season span. Now, as Zobrist rides off into the sunset, Jeff McNeil of the Mets promises to change that …

The then-Devil Rays originally landed Zobrist from the Astros — in exchange for Aubrey Huff — way back in the early days of MLBTR (July of 2006). Some guy named Tim Dierkes wrote up the trade, characterizing Zobrist as a “solid but not spectacular shortstop prospect” of the sort who’s a “good guy to have around, gets on base, but not a star.”

Thankfully, Tim’s readers stuck with him despite that whiff. (I doubt I’ve had any of those, so … no need to go back and check, thanks.) In truth, the description was plenty fair at the time. It took a while for Zobrist to emerge.

Zobrist was a mess in his first two MLB seasons, putting up -1.7 rWAR and -1.9 fWAR cumulatively for the Tampa Bay organization. When the club dropped the devil from its name in 2008, Zobrist’s age-27 season, his angelic side emerged. He earned his way back for another shot and showed quite well in a 62-game run.

The next year opened with Zobrist as an obvious choice for the MLB roster. He ultimately emerged as an outright star … on paper, at least, while awaiting recognition … by turning in 599 plate appearances of .297/.405/.543 hitting with 27 home runs and nearly as many walks (91) as strikeouts (104). And he did so while appearing at every spot on the diamond aside from the battery (in addition to taking a turn at DH).

Like his forefather, McNeil was a legitimate but non-elite prospect when drafted. (The former went in the sixth round, the latter in the twelfth.) Neither player was hyped much on his way up the ladder; in both cases, they showed excellent plate discipline and polished hit tools … but little in the way of home run power.

The skillsets are rather similar, as are the timelines. Actually, having recently celebrated his 28th birthday, McNeil is a bit ahead of Zobrist’s curve. And his own versatility is proving equally useful to the Mets as Zobrist’s did to the Rays.

McNeil lined up mostly at second base when he was first called upon in 2018. He graded rather well there and could certainly have just been kept at the position for the long haul. But the Mets had other ideas. As they cooked up a surprising swap for Edwin Diaz, the Mets reportedly discussed McNeil with the Mariners. Fortunately for the New York org, it didn’t ultimately have to put him in. (Ill-conceived though the trade was, as we recently explored on YouTube, losing McNeil would’ve made it an even greater calamity.) But adding Robinson Cano meant bumping McNeil off of second base. He did have a lot of experience at the hot corner on the farm, but McNeil had spent very little time in the outfield. As it turned out, McNeil handled more 2019 frames on the grass than on the dirt, grading out as a capable defender no matter where he was thrown

While the glovework is what primarily spurs the comparison, there’s a lot connecting these two at the plate as well. McNeil is rather more dependent upon his ability to maintain a really lofty batting average to get on base. While he rarely strikes out, he’s not as handy at drawing walks as was Zobrist. But with a .321 batting average through 815 career plate appearances … so far, so good.

While McNeil had ramped up his power output in his breakout upper-minors showing in 2018 — thus forcing his way up in the midst of a busted Mets campaign — it was hard to know if it’d carry forward. He hit only three dingers in his first 63 games and 248 plate appearances in the majors. But McNeil launched 23 long balls in 567 trips to the dish in 2019, his first full big league campaign. That’s not an overly impressive tally in the streamlined-orb era, but it does suggest that McNeil can find a way to expand his contact skills into loft when the offensive environment supports that kind of approach. Zobrist never came within seven long balls of his first full-season tally, though that certainly didn’t stop him from producing a ton of value at the plate.

Why McNeil and not some other would-be Zobrists? Well, to this point, McNeil owns a 141 wRC+ at the plate — figures reminiscent of Zobrist’s monster early output. Whit Merrifield has perhaps the best claim, and he’s quite a good player in his own right. But he’s also a different beast — rather less bat (109 career wRC+) but with greater value on the bases. David Fletcher has versatility on his side, but he’s not even an average overall hitter over the same approximate span as McNeil. Likewise, Brock Holt doesn’t have a consistent record at the plate. Tommy Edman and Cavan Biggio each had early success, but neither has completed a full MLB season.

So … will the comparison hold? Zobrist took a bit of a step back at the plate in his second full MLB season but rebounded soon thereafter. And he continued to deliver multi-faceted value until he ran out of gas at the tail end. All said, Zobrist delivered 44.5 rWAR and 44.4 fWAR over this 14-year career.

McNeil has a long way to go to reach those levels of overall productivity. Statcast numbers suggest he was a bit fortunate last year, when he carried a .355 xwOBA and .385 wOBA. But even with a bit of a step back, we’d be looking at a high-quality offensive performer who (like Zobrist) contributes in the field and on the bases. Though McNeil is presently slated to line up at third base for the Mets, that could still evolve over time. Perhaps he’ll even end up reprising his ever-shifting 2019 role for certain seasons. Whether or not it’s ultimately utilized, that flexibility will help immensely when it comes to managing the roster during and between seasons.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Metrics, Wilmer, Draft, Short Season

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Even in the absence of baseball, there are plenty of interesting things being written about the game. Here are a few recent favorites …

  • Defensive metrics are now widely circulated, but we lack broad-based understanding of how to value them. At Baseball Prospectus, Jonathan Judge and Sean O’Rourke provide an interesting examination of the relative strengths and weaknesses of varying systems. The BPro FRAA measure turns out quite well in measuring outfielders, while Statcast’s OAA metric performs best in the infield. It’s not for the statistical faint of heart, but you’ll want to read the whole article (or at least its full conclusion section!) to gather up the necessary nuance.
  • MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince provided a fascinating oral history of the 2015 trade deadline swap that would’ve sent Carlos Gomez from the Brewers to the Mets for Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores — an agreed-upon trade that fell apart in controversial and very public fashion. It’s essential reading for any hot stove aficionado, featuring a trove of recollections of many of the key actors. By happenstance, we recently did our own examination of the butterfly effects of that non-trade.
  • The MLB draft will go forward in 2020, albeit in a modified form. It remains to be seen just how many rounds will be held, but there are sure to be less players chosen than usual. And with amateur spring sports cut short, teams haven’t had recent looks at many prospects. That makes prior scouting assessments all the more important to teams looking to navigate a one-off amateur intake situation. Baseball America has released its updated top-400 ranking of draft prospects, featuring all the names that have moved onto and up the board most recently.
  • We don’t yet know whether we’ll have a season or what one would even look like, but there’s no question the 2020 campaign will be shortened if it’s held at all. At Fangraphs, Craig Edwards examines the volatility of relief pitchers and how that could play into a ~half-season campaign. While it’d be tougher than ever to predict performance, Edwards notes that it may actually be even more important to carry a slate of highly capable relievers in a short-season format, particularly if the postseason tournament is expanded as part of the (sure-to-be) unusual schedule that is ultimately arranged.

These Players Can Exit Their Contracts After 2020

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No matter if a Major League Baseball season takes place in 2020, there are certain players who will be in position to decide whether to exit their current contracts next winter. Whether it be by way of an opt-out clause or a mutual option, here’s a look at the players who will be able to choose to take their chances in free agency…

Opt-Outs

Back when the Marlins extended outfielder Giancarlo Stanton on a historic pact worth $325MM over 13 years in 2014, they included a one-time opt-out for next winter. Stanton has put up at least one phenomenal season since he signed that deal – he won the NL MVP and hit 59 home runs in 2017 – but injuries have hampered him on a regular basis. He’s now a member of the Yankees, who acquired him in a December 2017 deal, but Stanton played in just 18 games last season. He’ll still be owed $218MM for seven years after this season, and for at least the time being, it’s very tough to think of Stanton leaving that money on the table to test free agency.

Designated hitter J.D. Martinez, a member of the Yankees’ archrival in Boston, will have two years and $38.75MM remaining on his contract after this season. He’ll be 33 then, and will continue to be someone who’s known as a defensive liability, so should be opt out? It’s up for debate. The big-hitting Martinez remains an offensive standout, but his production last season fell (granted, he did still slash .304/.383/.557 with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances). He subsequently chose not to opt out after last season, as doing so would have cost him his $23.75MM salary for this year.

One of Martinez’s former Tigers teammates, outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, will also have to choose whether to revisit free agency next offseason. Castellanos is another defensively challenged slugger, one whom the Reds guaranteed $64MM over four years this past winter. He’ll be 29 by the time the 2021 season rolls around, and by saying goodbye to his Reds pact, he’d be leaving $48MM on the table (including a $2MM buyout in 2024). It’s not easy to determine whether that will happen; some of it depends on how well Castellanos fares in 2020, if a season occurs. Carrying over the tremendous production he posted late last season after the Cubs acquired him from the Tigers may make Castellanos more inclined to try his luck on the market again, but his output at the plate has been more good than great throughout his career.

Mutual Options

For the most part, mutual options don’t get picked up. Either a player’s so effective that he opts for free agency or he’s not useful enough for his team to exercise the option. Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy and reliever Wade Davis are among those who have mutual option decisions waiting after the season, but they’ve struggled in the club’s uniform so far. With that in mind, Murphy’s on track for a $6MM buyout (as opposed to a $12MM salary), while Davis figures to receive a $1MM buyout instead of a $15MM payday.

Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun ($15MM mutual option, $4MM buyout), Diamondbacks right-hander Mike Leake ($18MM mutual option, $5MM buyout) and Cubs lefty Jon Lester ($25MM mutual option, $10MM buyout) could also find themselves looking for new contracts next winter. The same goes for Mets reliever Dellin Betances, though it’s tougher to say in his case. The former Yankee barely pitched at all season on account of injuries, and if there isn’t a season in 2020, would he turn down a guaranteed $6MM in 2021? And would the Mets buy him out for $3MM? That’s one of the many interesting questions we could face next offseason.

Wilmer’s Tears: The Butterfly Effects Of A Collapsed Trade

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Wilmer Flores cried. It was the eighth inning, and the Mets were trailing the Padres by five runs. The non-waiver trade deadline was 36 hours away, and the only organization he’d ever known had agreed to trade him and teammate Zack Wheeler to the Brewers in exchange for two-time All-Star Carlos Gomez. The 23-year-old Flores learned of the reported agreement between innings … but he was left in the game to hit in the seventh inning … and to return to the field to play second base in the top half of the eighth.

In a whirlwind span of 15 to 30 minutes, Flores went from being traded to staying put among friends and teammates; the Mets had backed out of the reportedly agreed-upon trade once talks progressed to medical reviews. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported that an issue with Gomez’s hip and perhaps some hesitance over Wheeler, who was on the mend from Tommy John surgery at the time, had torpedoed the deal.

Two nights later, with the deadline behind him, Flores pumped his fist as he rounded first base and thumped the Mets logo across his chest as he approached home plate after hitting one of the most emotional walk-off home runs in recent memory. It was the last standing ovation in a day that saw Mets fans rise to their feet to embrace Flores on multiple other occasions. Flores went on to have a fine Mets career, calling Citi Field home up through the 2018 season. He’ll always hold a special place in the hearts of most Mets fans.

The memory of that unusual and emotional scene, however, is only the surface of a much more layered “what if” scenario. If the Mets had gone through with that trade, the ripple effects would’ve radically altered the future of several teams and — in a more roundabout way — perhaps the very fabric of the game.

How so? Let’s examine:

The Mets

Imagine a world where the Mets weren’t issuing statements to the press about their highest-paid position player being injured in a freak wild boar accident. If the Mets had gone through with the Brewers trade, it’s quite possible that Yoenis Cespedes never would’ve played a game for them. The deal bringing Cespedes to Queens was a buzzer-beater just seconds before the deadline — not 48 hours after Flores’ outpouring forever endeared him to the Mets’ fanbase.

Cespedes was an absolute juggernaut for the Amazins down the stretch, fueling their torrid finish to the season with an outstanding .287/.337/.604 with 17 home runs in just 57 regular-season games. Mets fans clamored for the then-Sandy-Alderson-led front office to re-sign the slugger. While he initially looked to be outside their price range, Cespedes didn’t see his market develop the way he’d hoped and ultimately opted for a compromise deal that promised him $75MM over three years but came with opt-outs after years one and two. Following a terrific 2016 season, Cespedes indeed opted out, and the two sides brokered a more concrete four-year, $110MM pact covering the 2017-20 seasons.

But what if the club had acquired Gomez on July 30? Curtis Granderson was productive in right field. Juan Lagares was a world-beating defensive center fielder even if his bat was characteristically flimsy. Michael Cuddyer was still on the roster, and a top prospect named Michael Conforto had made his MLB debut just days earlier, on July 24. With Gomez added to that bunch, would the Mets have gone through with Cespedes trade? You can argue there was still room — put Gomez in center, Cespedes in left and use Lagares off the bench — but the urgency obviously would’ve been lessened and the Mets surely would’ve been more protective of their prospect assets. And without that magical stretch run erased from history and Gomez signed through 2016, the Mets’ motivation to sign Cespedes would’ve likely been wiped out.

Furthermore, with Cespedes then sure to have been traded elsewhere, might the pitcher they traded to Detroit have instead won a Rookie of the Year Award in New York? It’s impossible to say, but dropping Michael Fulmer into the mix of quality Mets arms in place of Wheeler would’ve maintained their enviable stash of arms for a longer time. Fulmer, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey (prior to his regression), Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz is clearly a talented enough group on which to build a contending staff. And the “what ifs” only continue if you stop to wonder what precise course Fulmer’s career would’ve taken a different setting.

The Tigers

Speaking of Fulmer, well, Tigers fans wouldn’t be left to wonder whether the club should’ve traded him prior to all of his injury troubles. Fulmer had a masterful rookie season but has since undergone an ulnar nerve transposition procedure, Tommy John surgery and knee surgery. They could’ve pulled the trigger on a trade for him early in his big league tenure, but doing so would’ve meant trading four-plus years of control over the right-hander. Tigers fans can voice frustration with the benefit of hindsight, but trades of quality, established starters with that much club control remaining are of the utmost rarity.

Michael Fulmer

It’s likely that Cespedes would’ve been moved elsewhere. The Astros, Orioles, Giants and Pirates were among the teams on the hunt for outfield upgrades that trade deadline, and then-Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski was committed to a rare sell-off, evidenced not only by the Cespedes swap but the David Price blockbuster with the Blue Jays. If you want to get truly hypothetical, though, let’s say no Cespedes trade materializes. …Would late owner Mike Ilitch still have moved on from Dombrowski shortly after the trade deadline? Would Dombrowski ever have ended up in Boston?

The Brewers

Sayonara, Josh Hader. In this hypothetical world, you were never a Brewer, because Gomez was traded for Wheeler and Flores. Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress surely could’ve formed a potent back-of-the-pen duo while their peaks overlapped, but the three-headed monster that propelled the team to the 2018 NLCS would never have come to be. Hader would’ve been dominating in Houston or elsewhere, depending on whether the Astros traded him. Could a Wheeler-fronted rotation have made up for his absence?

The ripple effect doesn’t stop there. Also coming to Milwaukee in the Astros swap that did happen were Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana and Adrian Houser. Phillips was flipped for Mike Moustakas in 2018, so without his presence in Milwaukee, who knows whether Moose would’ve been acquired via trade or subsequently re-signed in the winter? Santana’s 30-dinger season in 2017 doesn’t happen, nor do the Brewers eventually trade him for Ben Gamel. Houser, meanwhile, doesn’t show promise of a late-blooming breakout with the ’19 Brewers, for whom he turned in 111 1/3 innings of 3.72 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 9.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 53.4% grounder rate. The Brewers’ 2020 rotation is short another arm in that instance, as Wheeler still would’ve been a free agent, barring an extension.

Of course, the Brew Crew would’ve enjoyed Wheeler’s renaissance since he reemerged from arm troubles. And that brings us to…

The Astros

The craziest part of this entire butterfly effect isn’t that Josh Hader might’ve been closing out games for Houston. In fact, it doesn’t involve Hader or Gomez at all. It’s that the other player traded to the Astros alongside Gomez in exchange for Hader, Phillips, Santana and Houser was none other than right-hander Mike Fiers. Fiers joined the Houston rotation, promptly threw a no-hitter in his fourth outing, made 67 starts for the ’Stros over the next two and a half seasons … and ultimately proved to be the whistleblower who outed a sign-stealing scandal that led to the firing of manager A.J. Hinch and president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow.

Perhaps the Astros were enamored of Fiers enough that they’d have found a way to acquire him from Milwaukee in a different swap. But it’s eminently plausible that had the Wheeler/Flores/Gomez trade between Milwaukee and New York gone through, we’d still have no firm knowledge of the Astros’ nefarious scheme. True, we might’ve had some inkling of wrongdoing; Jeff Passan, after all, reported for Yahoo back in 2017 that two players told him they believed Houston had banged on a trash can to convey signs. Athletics GM David Forst has acknowledged asking the league to investigate the Astros for improper use of technology. But without the smoking gun that was Fiers’ testimony, the league was either unable or unmotivated to bring the scandal to public light.

Peeling the onion back further — imagine if Hader had become every bit as dominant in Houston as he did in Milwaukee. Would the Astros have ever acquired Roberto Osuna to shut down games? Would since-fired assistant GM Brandon Taubman’s belligerent locker room taunting ever have led to his dismissal? Would the Astros have libeled Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein, calling her report of Taubman’s actions “misleading and completely irresponsible” before accusing her of attempting to “fabricate a story where one does not exist”?

To be clear: the Astros’ scandals reflect the indefensible choices of many individuals associated with the organization, for which they’re fully responsible collectively and individually. But the counter-factual scenarios do at least suggest that these matters might have occurred and/or been brought to light in quite different ways.

The Red Sox

Depending on the previous Dombrowski question I raised, who knows what state the front office would be in? We do know, definitively, that without the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal coming to light last fall, Alex Cora would not have been fired as the team’s manager. Ron Roenicke would still be his bench coach.

All that brings us back to…

The Mets

Carlos Beltran’s debut as the Mets’ manager would’ve been delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but it wouldn’t have been outright wiped out of existence by virtue of his own involvement in the Astros scandal. Luis Rojas would be a quality control coach and not a big league manager.

Whether the Mets would’ve been better off in the long run with Gomez and Fulmer in the organization as opposed to Wheeler, Flores and Cespedes is debatable. Cespedes was again their best hitter in 2016 when the club secured a Wild Card postseason berth, but they were unable to advance beyond that initial round, falling to the Giants. The subsequent four-year deal has been a disaster. Cespedes has been extremely productive when on the field, but he of course hasn’t been on the field much. He’s played 119 games through the first three seasons of that deal and agreed to have his contract restructured this winter after the surreal wild boar injury.

Wheeler didn’t pitch again until 2017 and wasn’t very good that year. But his 2018-19 seasons were strong, as he posted a combined 3.65 ERA in 377 1/3 innings with a strikeout per frame and a total of roughly eight wins above replacement. The Mets didn’t make the postseason either year, though, and they’re left with a draft pick to show for their decision to hang onto him.

Flores hit .272/.317/.409 after the trade-that-wasn’t, taking another 1275 plate appearances as a Met before signing with the D-backs in free agency in the 2018-19 offseason and then inking a two-year deal with the Giant this past winter.

Carlos Gomez

Adding Gomez in 2015 probably wouldn’t have cost the Mets the division — they won the NL East by seven games — but it’d have made things much closer. He’d already seen his 2013-14 All-Star form begin to fade, and his production worsened following his eventual trade to Houston. In 2016, Gomez played so poorly with the Astros that they simply released him in mid-August. A late surge with the Rangers served to remind that Gomez was still talented, so perhaps had he never gone to Houston in the first place, he could’ve remained a solid bat — but he was never going to hit at Cespedes’ level.

Fulmer, meanwhile, would still be controlled by the Mets through at least 2022 — if not 2023 (depending on when they promoted him). Virtually every prominent Mets starter has had Tommy John surgery in recent years (all of deGrom, Harvey, Wheeler, Matz and now Syndergaard), and it’s likely that Fulmer would’ve still eventually required his own surgery. But the other injuries that have dogged him and the timing of the procedure can’t be known. Marcus Stroman, acquired last July as an advance means of “replacing” Wheeler once it was clear an extension wasn’t happening, might not be a Met. Anthony Kay, traded in that deal, could be projected in the 2020 rotation.

The exact manner in which rosters would’ve been impacted can be speculated upon ad nauseam, but will never be known to any real degree of confidence. It doesn’t seem like the Mets cost themselves any playoff opportunities, but the effects of that near-trade were extremely broad reaching — and it seems certain that without Fiers being traded to Houston, we’d still be lauding the 2017 Astros as the most dominant team in recent history (at least until the shocking news emerged in some other manner).

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Robinson Cano May Not Be Done Yet

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Second baseman Robinson Cano is one of the most successful major leaguers of the past couple decades. If you go back to 2005, the season in which he debuted with the Yankees, he ranks sixth out of position players in fWAR (57.7). Only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, Adrian Beltre and Albert Pujols have bettered Cano in that category. There’s more than one Hall of Famer in that group. Utley’s the lone second baseman there who was more valuable than Cano, who has slashed .302/.352/.490 (125 wRC+) with 324 home runs over 9,264 plate appearances as a member of the Yanks, Mariners and Mets.

The 37-year-old Cano could hang it up right now and go down as one of the most accomplished second basemen ever. But he has four seasons and $96MM left on the 10-year, $240MM contract he signed with the Mariners entering 2014, so that’s not going to happen. That may be to the chagrin of the Mets, who have gotten surprisingly little from Cano since they landed him in December 2018. He came over as part of a deal that also netted the Mets then-dominant reliever Edwin Diaz (we covered his struggles last week) and cost the team a pair of well-regarded prospects in outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-hander Justin Dunn.

Perhaps the greatest success of Cano’s career has come in New York, but a return to his old stomping grounds didn’t prove beneficial for the eight-time All-Star last season. Rather, Cano endured a subpar, injury-shortened season in Year 1 as a member of the Mets, with whom he batted .256/.307/.428 (93 wRC+) with 13 home runs and 0.8 fWAR in 423 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, it was just the second time that Cano posted below-average offensive numbers in a season.

Considering what they gave up for Cano and the amount of money they still owe him, the Mets can only hope last season was an aberration – he was, after all, a great offensive player as recently as 2018 (a PED suspension-shortened campaign, granted). The question now is whether there’s any hope for Cano to bounce back. There just might be. Cano was a far better hitter last year as it went along. He managed a paltry .646 OPS in the first half of the season and then saw that number skyrocket to a much more Cano-like .880 thereafter, albeit over fewer trips to the plate (258 in the first half, 165 in the second). And there wasn’t really anything alarming in Cano’s batted-ball profile – he actually made more hard contact than he has for most of his career, according to FanGraphs. His hard-hit percentage (46.0) ranked in the game’s 87th percentile, per Statcast, which also pegged his average exit velocity (90.8 mph) in the 82nd percentile. That doesn’t sound like someone who’s done, though Cano’s expected weighted on-base average (.328, compared to a real wOBA of .309) fell well shy of his typical output.

Had Cano actually finished with a .328 wOBA in 2019, he’d have been in close company with fellow second basemen such as Adam Frazier, Hanser Alberto and Cesar Hernandez. Nobody there’s a true standout, but they were all around the 2.o-fWAR mark. That’s not the type of production the Mets wanted when they made the Cano trade, but if he’s at least an average player in 2020 (for the sake of our own sanity, let’s assume there will be a season), it could help the club make a return to the playoffs after a three-year drought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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