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Did The Mets Rob The Astros?

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Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has come under fire at times since the team hired the former agent after the 2018 season, but BVW has nonetheless had his high points atop their front office. One of his best decisions in New York came in January 2019, when he acquired a player who’s now among the Mets’ most valuable hitters in a trade with the Astros.

Sixteen months ago, Van Wagenen and then-Astros GM Jeff Luhnow worked out a swap that sent infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis and INF Cody Bohanek to the Mets for the trio of second baseman Luis Santana, outfielder Ross Adolph and catcher Scott Manea. Nobody from that quintet looked like a high-end asset at the time, and Davis was the only member of the group with major league experience.

Davis, a third-round pick of the Astros in 2014, hit a miserable .194/.260/.321 in 181 plate appearances in their uniform from ’17-18. However, Davis did have his way with Triple-A pitchers, against whom he slashed .335/.400/.589 with 22 home runs in 450 trips to the plate.

Davis’ success at the highest level of the minors impressed the Mets, who now look as if they acquired a terrific hitter at a low price. Davis got his first extensive look in the majors last season, his age-26 campaign, and ran with it.

Across 453 PA, Davis batted a strong .307/.369/.527 (136 wRC+) with 22 home runs in his Mets debut. The righty swinger showed no vulnerability against either same-handed or southpaw pitchers in the process, and his Statcast numbers don’t suggest his success was fluky. On the contrary, Davis finished in the league’s 80th percentile or better in barrels, exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, expected weighted on-base average and expected batting average. His xwOBA (.383) outdid an already impressive real-life mark of .373 and ranked 21st in the league, placing him among a slew of big names.

As great as Davis’ offense was last season, defensive woes tamped down his value. He lined up at third and in left field, where he combined for minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.3 Ultimate Zone Rating. Still, thanks to his offensive breakout, the overall package was worth an above-average 2.4 fWAR. That’s especially good for someone who looked like a lottery ticket when the Mets got him, and for someone who made a minimum salary in 2019. Davis won’t be eligible to reach free agency until after 2024, which means he could be an important piece of New York’s offense for several more years (perhaps especially if the NL adds a DH).

Unlike Davis, Bohanek hasn’t shown a ton of potential so far, and the 24-year-old turned in fairly nondescript numbers at the High-A level last season. The Astros don’t seem as if they’ll miss him, but what about their return? Here’s how it has panned out through one season…

  • Luis Santana: The Mets’ 19th overall prospect at MLB.com when the trade occurred, Santana’s now the outlet’s 22nd-ranked Astros farmhand. The 20-year-old hit just two homers last season, batting .267/.339/.352 in 186 Low-A attempts and .228/.333/.263 in 66 PA at the Double-A level.
  • Ross Adolph: The 23-year-old outfielder combined for a .228/.357/.366 line with seven homers in 460 PA between Single-A and High-A ball last season. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel recently wrote for FanGraphs that he could amount to a role player in MLB.
  • Scott Manea: The 24-year-old offered a .235/.347/.387 line with 12 HRs and 389 PA at the High-A level last season. He’s not regarded as a notable prospect.

This looks like anything but a can’t-miss package for the Astros, though it’s still way too early to throw dirt on the careers of anyone they picked up. The Mets, meanwhile, can’t be anything but thrilled with what they’ve gotten from Davis.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Teams’ Plans For Second Spring Training

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While the league and the MLBPA have yet to reach a formal agreement on either player compensation or health/safety protocols for a rebooted 2020 season, teams are still preparing for a shortened restart of “Spring” Training — ideally beginning in mid-June. The goal is for a three-week training period to lead into an 82-game season that kicks off in early July. The latest on plans for a few NL clubs…

  • The Mets will likely hold their version of Spring Training 2.0 at their spring facility in Port St. Lucie, Fla. rather than at Citi Field in New York, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. New York City remains the U.S. epicenter for the coronavirus, and beyond the pure health aspect of the decision, staging their training camp in Florida gives the Mets access to multiple fields. As Healey notes, the Mets completed a $57MM renovation project at Clover Field back in February, which has improved the overall quality of the facilities and equipment available to Mets players — several of whom are already in Florida.
  • The Phillies are likely to remain in Philadelphia for their second wave of Spring Training, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. The Phillies’ Urban Youth Academy, across the street from Citizen’s Bank Park, has two full-size fields that could be made available, and Salisbury notes that the Phils have ownership stake in their nearby Triple-A and Double-A affiliates, which could allow those parks to be used as well. Both affiliates are fewer than 70 miles away from Citizen’s Bank Park.
  • The Diamondbacks have opened Chase Field for individual workouts, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Unlike other clubs, the D-backs have the luxury of their home field and spring facility being a mere 20 miles apart. Nightengale notes that in addition to Chase Field opening up, some players are also reporting to the Salt River Fields spring facility in preparation for a second Spring Training.

Former Star & Top Prospect Headline Mets’ DH Options

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National League teams didn’t build their rosters with the expectation of a universal designated hitter slot for 2020, but most are capable of filling the job from within. Some teams could really benefit from the anticipated temporoary rule change … among them, the Mets.

The advantage for the New York organization is multi-faceted. It’s not just about stuffing more hitting ability into the daily lineup in the upcoming truncated season, though that’s a factor as well. The DH would also create some important near-term roster flexibility and possibly open additional long-term strategic options.

It really all comes down to two guys: hobbled former superstar Yoenis Cespedes and one-time top prospect Dominic Smith. Without a DH slot, both face questionable roster prospects. Cespedes is working to return from major leg injuries. Nobody really knows how he’ll look at full speed in the outfield grass. Smith is all but fully blocked at first base by emergent star Pete Alonso. The Mets already know how Smith looks in the outfield and would rather not see much more of it.

The Mets are already crossing their fingers with outfield defense. J.D. Davis isn’t exactly a glove-first roster piece. The club will rely upon Brandon Nimmo for most of the action in center field; he’s a palatable but hardly exceptional performer there. Jake Marisnick can cover a lot of ground, but he’ll be a reserve. And Michael Conforto will be an everyday presence in the lineup, so there’s not much space anyway.

Under the circumstances, it’s a bit of a luxury to carry a guy like Smith. But what other choice do the Mets have? He can still be optioned, true, but that’s a heck of a way to treat a guy that turned in an eyebrow-raising .282/.355/.525 batting line in 197 plate appearances over an injury-limited 2019 season. And Cespedes? We don’t know when he’ll be ready, but he has now had ample additional time to work back to full health while the game has been paused. You can safely assume he’ll be clamoring for a return to the MLB roster as soon as possible, particularly with a newly incentive-laden contract and free agency beckoning after 2020.

Somehow fitting both of these guys on the same roster? It’s a bit tough to imagine, but the Mets could possibly make it work since Davis can play in the infield. With a DH slot, it’d at at least be plausible. And that would open the door to a potentially explosive offense, with depth to spare as injuries or performance issues arise. It’s sort of silly to consider these two talented players in a DH platoon, but if it comes to that … well, it’s a first-world problem.

The broader roster management benefits are perhaps even more significant here. Smith needs a full shot at the majors; perhaps the DH will clear a sustainable path for him in the organization or pave the way to an eventual trade. And having that bat-only position to utilize makes it much easier for the Mets to deal with, and even benefit from, the final season of the Cespedes contract.

Bartolo Colon Still Hopes To Pitch One More Year In MLB

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Just days shy of his 47th birthday, Bartolo Colon isn’t quite ready to step away from the game. The big righty spoke to ESPN’s Marly Rivera this week, telling her that he’s holding out hope for one final run in the Majors — ideally with the Mets. “Big Sexy” praised the organization from top to bottom, lauding everyone from the front office to the clubhouse staff while delivering some heartfelt memories of the Amazins’ fanbase:

Mets fans are the best. In the beginning, when they laughed at me every time my helmet fell off, at first I felt uncomfortable. But when I saw how much the fans enjoyed it, I asked for a bigger batting helmet so that it would fall more because it was so much fun for them!

That said, Colon made clear that he’s willing to pitch with any team, in any role, so long as it means one more run in the Majors. The well-traveled righty has already suited up for 11 clubs to this point in his big league career: the Indians, Expos, White Sox, Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Athletics, Mets, Braves, Twins and Rangers.

Colon didn’t pitch in the big leagues last season and last appeared with the 2018 Rangers, tallying 28 games (24 starts). However, he hasn’t had an above-average campaign on the mound since his age-43 season with the Mets back in 2016 (191 2/3 innings, 3.49 ERA, All-Star appearance). Over his past two seasons in the big leagues, Colon has worked to an ERA just north of 6.00 while soaking up 289 1/3 frames for Atlanta, Minnesota and Texas. To his credit, Colon had plenty of sharp outings with both the Twins and Rangers — they were just mixed in with numerous clunkers that outweighed much of the good he did when at his best.

Seeing Colon back in the big leagues is a long shot at this point, but teams will need more depth than ever as rosters expand to accommodate a shortened ramp-up period to the 2020 season. And Colon was already set to play in the Mexican League prior to the pandemic shutting down pro sports around the globe, so perhaps he’d explore alternatives if a deal with a big league organization can’t come together.

How A 1967 Draft Pick Led The Mets To David Wright

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  • The Mets drafted David Wright with the 38th pick of the 2001 draft, beginning the long association between the Amazins and their future captain.  More indirectly, however, the Mets got Wright because they….drafted Jon Matlack fourth overall in 1967?  MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo takes an entertaining deep dive through the transactional path that began with the Matlack pick and ended with Mike Hampton leaving the Mets to sign with the Rockies in the 2000-01 offseason, thus netting New York the compensatory pick that resulted in Wright’s selection.

Mets Notes: Realmuto, Cano

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  • The Mets pushed hard to land J.T. Realmuto before he was ultimately traded from Miami to Philadelphia, and Mike Puma of the New York Post writes in his latest mailbag column that the team’s pursuit of Realmuto might not yet be over. Realmuto is represented by CAA, the former agency of GM Brodie Van Wagenen, and current catcher Wilson Ramos has a club option for the 2021 season that isn’t a lock to be picked up ($10MM or a $1.5MM buyout). The Mets have acquired several of Van Wagenen’s former players since he became GM — Jed Lowrie, Michael Wacha and Robinson Cano — although CAA has a rather large base of clients and Van Wagenen has certainly added plenty of players from other firms (Ramos, J.D. Davis, etc.). Still, there’s no obvious in-house alternative if the team opts to move on from Ramos — or to pick up his option and look to trade him. Realmuto would indeed be an upgrade, particularly on the defensive side of things, which is notable given the questions that arose regarding Ramos’ glove in New York last year.
  • The COVID-19 shutdown hasn’t been fun for anyone, but Cano has at least found a silver lining during the delayed season. Cano said Tuesday that the downtime has “been beneficial for me for sure” physically, as Tim Healey of Newsday relays. “My legs feel strong right now,” continued Cano, who’s champing at the bit to return to the diamond. “Just can’t wait to go back on the field, and then play.” If there is a season, the longtime star, 37, will aim to rebound after a rough debut campaign with the Mets. Cano hit just .257/.307/.428 with 13 homers during an injury-limited, 423-plate appearance season.

2 Years Ago, The Mets Cut Ties With A Former Star

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It seems like ancient history now, but right-hander Matt Harvey used to be considered among the majors’ elite players. A 2010 seventh overall pick of the Mets, Harvey debuted in the bigs in 2012 and truly broke out the next season with 178 1/3 innings of 2.27 ERA ball. From his first taste of MLB action until 2015, Harvey posted a 2.53 ERA with 9.46 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 over 427 frames, earned an All-Star bid and was part of a pennant-winning team. Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom were supposed to form an unstoppable trio atop the Mets’ rotation for the long haul, but it wasn’t to be, as Harvey experienced a dramatic fall from grace during his time in their uniform.

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Injuries have been an all-too-common problem for Harvey, who underwent Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in October 2013 and sat out all of of the next season. Harvey made a triumphant return to win NL Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2015 – the latest season in which the Mets went to the World Series – but it wasn’t a campaign devoid of controversy for the hurler who became known as the Dark Knight. He and agent Scott Boras pushed for a limit of 180 innings for the year, but Harvey ended up exceeding that amount with ease, tossing 189 1/3 frames in the regular season and racking up another 26 2/3 in the playoffs. The workload may have been too heavy for his taste, but Harvey was actually great that October – including an eight-inning, two-run effort in a Fall Classic-deciding, Game 5 defeat to the Royals. Little did anyone know that shining moments would be so few and far between for him since then.

Rewinding to 2016, you’d have a hard time finding many regular starters who have been worse than Harvey. He underwent thoracic outlet surgery in July of that year, and that now looks like a death knell in hindsight. Now 31 years old, Harvey’s the owner of a 5.56 ERA – the third-highest figure among all qualified starters – in his most recent 390 innings.

Having seen enough of Harvey, the Mets – once justified in believing he was a true ace – gave up on him exactly two years ago. It was on May 8, 2018, that the Mets traded Harvey to the Reds for catcher Devin Mesoraco – another once-promising player who didn’t pan out as hoped. Harvey turned out OK as a Red, contributing 128 innings of 4.50 ERA ball en route to an $11MM guarantee with the Angels during the next period of free agency. Likewise, Mesoraco wasn’t horrible as a member of the Mets, with whom he batted .222/.306/.409 in 229 plate appearances. But neither player is even in baseball at this point.

Mesoraco has all but retired after sitting out the 2019 campaign. Harvey could still resume his career, but it’s not looking good. The former front-end starter was so ineffective in his lone year with the Angels that they released him in July. Harvey did catch on with the Athletics on a minor league contract after that, but he didn’t crack their big league roster at all, and there have been few rumblings about him since he elected free agency at the outset of offseason. In fact, MLBTR’s archives have just two somewhat recent news items on Harvey – one on how he auditioned for the Blue Jays as a reliever during the winter and another saying the Mets aren’t interested in reuniting with him. It’s a stunning descent for a pitcher who was among the best during his Mets heyday.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

A-Rod Reportedly Bails On Mets Bid

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If you were looking forward to the spectacle of Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter squaring off from rival owners’ boxes in the NL East, this news will come as a disappointment. Per Thornton McEnery of the New York Post, A-Rod’s longshot attempt to pull together a bidding group for the Mets has been scuttled.

It seems that Rodriguez and fiancee Jenifer Lopez simply weren’t able to gain traction with potential co-investors and have decided to call off the effort. They made some headway with Wayne Rothbaum (see here and here) but obviously failed to put together a viable partnership.

The report goes on to dish about the Mets’ financial difficulties, which are a major factor in the ongoing efforts to sell the team. It seems the club could be looking at losses approaching or even reaching nine figures if the gates to Citi Field never open in 2020.

It’s certainly a suboptimal moment to be seeking a buyer for a baseball franchise. While the chance to own a New York team would normally hold great appeal, these aren’t typical times. The Mets’ longstanding financial woes loom larger than ever.

The difficult operational challenges facing a potential new owner are compounded by the fact that the current Wilpon ownership group is evidently committed to holding onto its ownership of the SNY regional sports network. Whether or not the Wilpons can keep their revenue-producing TV business while still moving the organization for a big price remains to be seen, but the marketplace seems rather skeptical.

10 MLB Teams Whose Business Initiatives Face Coronavirus Hurdles

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Like most every person or business, all thirty MLB teams face tough questions during the time of COVID-19. Some are relatively similar for all ballclubs, but there are obviously quite a few unique issues — some more pressing than others.

Dealing with the implications of this pandemic is probably toughest for organizations that are in the midst of executing or planning major business initiatives. We’ll run down some of those here.

Angels: The team has been cooking up potentially massive plans to develop the area around Angel Stadium. Fortunately, nothing is really in process at the moment, but it stands to reason that the project could end up being reduced in scope and/or delayed.

Athletics: Oof. The A’s have done a ton of work to put a highly ambitious stadium plan in motion. Massive uncertainty of this type can’t help. It isn’t clear just yet how the effort will be impacted, but it seems reasonable to believe the organization is pondering some tough decisions.

Braves: Luckily for the Atlanta-area organization, the team’s new park and most of the surrounding development is already fully operational. But with the added earning capacity from retail operations in a ballpark village comes greater exposure to turmoil.

Cubs: Like the Braves, the Cubs have already done most of the work at and around their park, but were counting on big revenue to pay back what’s owed (and then some). Plus, the Cubbies have a new TV network to bring up to speed.

Diamondbacks: Vegas?! Vancouver?! Probably not, but the Snakes do want to find a new home somewhere in Arizona. That effort is sure to be dented. Plus, the team’s recent initiative to host non-baseball events at Chase Field will now go on hiatus.

Marlins: The new ownership group has had some good vibes going and hoped to convert some of the positivity into a healthy new TV deal. That critical negotiation will now take place in a brutal economic environment.

Mets: So … this is probably not an optimal moment to be selling your sports franchise. The Wilpon family is pressing ahead with an effort to strike a new deal after their prior one broke down (at the worst possible time).

Orioles: That bitter television rights fee dispute that just won’t stop … it’s not going to be easier to find a resolution with less cash coming through the door. It was already setting up to be a rough stretch for the Baltimore org, with past TV money due to the Nationals and more bills to come, even while going through brutally lean years on the playing field.

Rangers: The new park is now built. While taxpayers footed much of the bill, the club still has to pay back a $600MM loan. Suffice to say the Rangers (and municipal authorities) anticipated game day revenues of more than $0 in year one when they planned out the loan repayment method.

Rays: The club’s preferred Ybor City option flamed out and it is currently engaged in a somewhat confusing effort to split time between the Tampa Bay area and Montreal. Existing hurdles to that arrangement seem only to be taller in the age of the coronavirus.

Others: We may be missing some, but it seems most other organizations are engaged more in usual-course sorts of business initiatives rather than franchise-altering efforts. For instance, the Nats have an interest in that TV deal as well. The Red Sox have been working to redevelop areas around Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are dabbling in future plans. And the Dodgers have a new TV rights deal, though that came to fruition after the pandemic hit and may not be impacted any more than any other existing carriage arrangements.

Losing Thor

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We were all dealing with much more significant problems when the shocking news came down: Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ high-octane hurler, was headed in for Tommy John surgery. That would’ve hit like a ton of bricks — just two days before Opening Day — had it not been for the fact that the season was already on pause.

The replacement of Thor’s ulnar collateral ligament will hopefully save his career. But it’ll wipe out his age-27 season, severely denting the hopes of the Mets in 2020 (should the campaign get underway). The hope had been that Syndergaard would trend back towards his immense ceiling, giving the team the game’s best 1-2 punch alongside uber-ace Jacob deGrom.

But that’s really only part of the picture for the Mets — the toughest, but also the simplest part. The club has no choice but to soldier on and trust in the arms it has compiled. There’s no changing course in late March. But what of the longer view?

The Mets will certainly tender Syndergaard a contract for 2021, his final season of arbitration eligibility, unless there’s a serious red flag in his rehab efforts. That’ll cost $9.7MM, a match for his 2020 salary. Even if the Mets only get something like half of a season from Syndergaard, he’s almost certainly worth that kind of risk. And the team would be buying the right to make him a qualifying offer — and, if he declines it, to accrue draft compensation — at season’s end.

But wait … we’re basically now contemplating Syndergaard as something of a ten million dollar roll of the dice on upside. It typically takes about 14 months for a starter to get back to full competitive action after undergoing the surgery, which would put him on track to resume action in June of 2021. And Syndergaard will have as much personal incentive to take full care in getting back to the hill as he will to perform well when he does, as he’ll be preparing for free agency. When GM Brodie Van Wagenen plotted his recent moves, including bidding adieu to Zack Wheeler, the idea was to have a full 2021 season of Syndergaard and deGrom. Instead, it’ll be deGrom, a hopeful mid-season return of Thor, and … let’s see what else …

The notion of an in-house Wheeler replacement, in the form of Marcus Stroman, made some amount of sense in the context of the 2020 campaign. But Stroman is now headed for his own trip on the open market, likely after turning down a qualifying offer. There’s no indication that the sides have gained traction in extension talks (if they’ve seriously engaged in them at all). Recent signees Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha are only playing on one-year deals, so they’ll also be free agents.

Adding Stroman cost the Mets a near-majors prospect in Anthony Kay and a potential fast riser in Simeon Woods Richardson. The club had already moved another immediate-term rotation candidate in Justin Dunn, who went to Seattle in the Edwin Diaz–Robinson Cano deal.

[MLBTR on YouTube: Mets’ Disastrous Trade For Diaz & Cano] 

Those moves have left the upper reaches of the Mets farm relatively barren of well-regarded rotation talent. David Peterson, Thomas Szapucki, Franklyn Kilome, and Kevin Smith are among the best arms in the system who could be part of the 2021 rotation picture. But they’ll all lost major developmental opportunities due to the coronavirus. There are a few other somewhat more advanced hurlers, as we discussed in evaluating the team’s rotation depth this spring, but the general talent level is rated at a step below the names just listed. It’s awfully tough to presume that the Mets will feel comfortable leaning on this group.

The biggest wild card may be Steven Matz, whose ups and downs are well-documented. He has been healthy enough to make thirty starts in each of the past two seasons, carrying a sturdy 4.09 ERA across that span, but fielding-independent pitching measures aren’t nearly as bullish on Matz as they once were. In 2019, he generated a 4.60 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA — all checking in north of his 4.21 ERA.

If something goes wrong with Matz, the Mets could be looking at opening the 2021 season with four new rotation pieces alongside deGrom. Even with the prospect of a heroic return of Thor buoying the team mid-campaign, that’s a tough picture for an organization that has enjoyed so much excellence from its staff. On the plus side, there will be a lot of money available to work with … depending upon how you look at things.

The Mets were set to enter the 2020 season with just under $175MM of payroll; they’re committed for about $100MM less for 2021. That’s good! But it doesn’t include arbitration spending. With Syndergaard, Matz, Michael Conforto, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis, and others, this could be a $40-45MM arbitration class. That would move the total payroll into the $120MM range.

Either way, there should in theory be some funds to work with, though it’s anyone’s guess what’ll be happening with the team’s uncertain ownership situation and how that will weigh on the situation. Thing is, the Mets will also have quite a few holes to fill. Adding as many as four reliable starters just isn’t easy to do on the cheap. The Mets also figure to have openings at catcher, in center field, and in a bullpen that will lose Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Brad Brach.

This is a tough spot for the Mets. In a normal season, they’d probably adjust their mid-season trade stance to being more willing to sell. If the campaign isn’t developing quite as hoped, there’d be an opportunity to cash in Stroman and perhaps others to help prepare for 2021. But we have no idea whether that’ll really be possible in a highly unusual 2020 season format (the details of which remain completely unknown at this point). And it’d hurt to take a seller stance after building up to contend.

The Mets were dealt a tough hand here; the loss of Syndergaard really stings even beyond 2020. Suppose he had pitched well in 2020 but the team went south in other areas; he’d have been a prime mid-season or offseason trade chip. Or what if things do indeed turn out well for the club even absent Thor? A contending Mets team may end up being forced to mine the farm system to bring in an impact arm, whether in mid-2020 or the ensuing offseason or both. Planning for the 2021 season and beyond will now be quite a bit more complicated, because it’ll be quite difficult to know what the club will get out of Syndergaard. And the possibility of an extension with Syndergaard — while perhaps remote to begin with — now seems quite difficult even to imagine.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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