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Assessing Brodie Van Wagenen’s Trades

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If you’re an MLBTR fan, then you know we’ve recently been asking readers to evaluate the trade histories of various high-ranking executives (or former execs) from around Major League Baseball. We’ve already polled you on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander and ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski.

It’s now time to go to New York and check in on the trades that GM Brodie Van Wagenen, a former agent, has swung since the team persuaded him to switch careers after the 2018 season. Considering he has only been on the job for two years, Van Wagenen’s body of work isn’t particularly large, but it’s one that’s sure to elicit some strong opinions (minor deals omitted; full details at transaction link)…

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

(Poll link for app users)

Mets Notes: Harvey, Employee Fund, Matz

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It was on this day in 1972 that the Montreal Expos traded the franchise’s first star, as Rusty Staub was sent to the Mets for a three-player package consisting of Ken Singleton, Mike Jorgensen, and Tim Foli.  All three players ended up being productive regulars during their time in Montreal, so it didn’t turn out to be a bad swap for the Expos, as much as fans missed having “Le Grand Orange” in the lineup.  Montreal’s loss was New York’s gain, as Staub hit .276/.361/.428 over 2263 PA with the Mets from 1972-75 and also delivered a huge performance during the Mets’ playoff run in 1973.  Staub had a 1.096 OPS over 46 postseason plate appearances that year, and quite possibly could have been World Series MVP had New York beaten the Athletics in the seven-game Fall Classic.  Staub ended up playing nine of his 23 seasons in a Mets uniform, returning for a second stint with the franchise from 1981-85.

Some more from Queens….

  • A reunion between Matt Harvey and the Mets doesn’t seem likely, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes that the Amazins “weren’t interested” in Harvey over the offseason and he doesn’t believe the club has been in contact with the right-hander.  Given some of the off-the-field controversy that surrounded Harvey during his previous tenure in New York, it probably isn’t a surprise that the Mets have seemingly closed the door on their former All-Star.  Aside from a tryout with the Blue Jays earlier this winter, Harvey hasn’t been publicly linked to any teams since his minor league deal with the Athletics expired at the end of the season.  Harvey has posted a 5.89 ERA over 307 1/3 innings with the Mets, Reds, and Angels since undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery midway through the 2016 season.
  • The Mets announced Friday that a financial aid program had been developed for seasonal game-day staff members.  The $1.2MM fund will be mostly given out in the form of “need-based grants” for staffers who directly work for the Mets, while remaining money will be divided among subcontracted workers (employed by Aramark, Impark, and Alliance) who serve in various roles around the ballpark.
  • Left-hander Steven Matz is also helping COVID-19 relief efforts, announcing (Twitter links) that his TRU32 charity is donating $32K to first responders and hospitals in New York.  The organization’s first donation is going Elmhurst Hospital in Queens, located less than three miles from Citi Field.

Brodie Van Wagenen On How To Get A Job In Baseball

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I posed this question to many of MLB’s top-ranking baseball operations executives.  Just like the rest of us, these people are currently sheltered in place with their families trying to get some work done in these difficult and strange times.  The following ten execs kindly took the time to answer my question: Ross Atkins of the Blue Jays, Jeff Bridich of the Rockies, Ben Cherington of the Pirates, James Click of the Astros, Mike Elias of the Orioles, Derek Falvey of the Twins, Matt Kleine of the Brewers, Dayton Moore of the Royals, Brodie Van Wagenen of the Mets, and Dick Williams of the Reds.  Their answers are below.

2. Be willing to work in any city that has an opportunity to further your pursuits. Don’t let geography limit your search.  – Brodie Van Wagenen, Mets Executive Vice President & General Manager

Rebound Candidate: Edwin Diaz

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If the Mets are going to maximize their potential and break their three-year playoff drought in 2020, odds are they’ll need a bounce-back effort from right-handed reliever Edwin Diaz. It’s still tough to believe how little the Mets got last year from Diaz, whom they acquired in December 2018 in what now looks like a regrettable blockbuster with the Mariners.

Diaz concluded his three-season Seattle tenure in epic fashion prior to the trade, turning in one of the greatest years a reliever has ever recorded. He collected 57 saves on 61 tries and logged a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with 15.22 K/9 and 2.09 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings en route to AL Reliever of the Year honors. The Mets surely expected Diaz to compete for the NL version of that award last season. No dice.

Diaz wound up ranking among the majors’ worst at preventing runs in his first year with the Mets, as he finished seventh last out of 158 qualified relievers in ERA (5.59) and well below average in FIP (4.51). The .377 batting average on balls in play hitters registered against Diaz had a hand in his sudden ineffectiveness, though he can’t simply be let off the hook for that. After all, someone who was so dominant just the year before (and very good in the prior two seasons) could no longer seem to keep meaningful contact at bay.

Thanks in part to noticeable decreases in groundball percentage and infield fly rate, Diaz’s hard contact jumped by 18.8 percent from 2018, according to FanGraphs. He ended up in the league’s second percentile in hard-hit percentage and its 11th percentile in average exit velocity against, per Statcast. His slider – a pitch that embarrassed hitters before – was battered to the tune of a .387 weighted on-base average, helping lead to a whopping 16 percent increase in home runs. Many pitchers gave up more HRs than usual during a power-happy 2019, but most didn’t so to that extent.

Despite all of that, the 26-year-old Diaz shouldn’t be counted out just yet. He did show some positive signs last season, believe it or not. Diaz lost nothing on his fastball, a pitch that has averaged 97.3 mph in each of his major league seasons. His strikeouts and swinging strikes dropped from his dream ’18 effort, while his walk rate rose, but he was still far above average in the first two categories and passable in the third. In fact, his strikeout rate (39 percent; 15.38 per nine) ranked in the league’s 99th percentile, and he finished fifth among relievers in swinging strikes (18 percent). And it seems Diaz did deserve better when he threw his slider, evidenced by a .272 expected wOBA against the pitch.

None of this is to say Diaz will ever return to his absolute best form, but he does still seem to have what it takes to succeed in the bigs. Even if he does, the Diaz/Robinson Cano trade (the latter has also struggled so far) probably won’t go down as a positive for the Mets. But if Diaz can help stabilize the back end of New York’s bullpen and aid in a return to the playoffs, that would ease the pain to some degree.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Noah Syndergaard: Non-Tender Candidate?

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Even with medical facilities reeling from the coronavirus, there are still Tommy John surgeries taking place. Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale and Mets righty Noah Syndergaard have undergone the procedure in the past few days. However, famed orthopedist Dr. James Andrews, who’s known for performing the operation, has put a stop to it for the time being, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relays. The Andrews Institute for Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine is located in Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis – as Speier writes – issued an executive order prohibiting “any medically unnecessary, non-urgent or non-emergency procedure or surgery which, if delayed, does not place a patient’s immediate health, safety or wellbeing at risk, or will, if delayed, not contribute to the worsening of a serious or life-threatening medical condition.” Syndergaard underwent TJS in the state last week, though he was not an Andrews patient.

Michael Wacha Pleased By Mechanical Changes

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  • Michael Wacha turned to some offseason video analysis with his father to help solve mechanical problems from the 2019 season, which put him in a good place heading into his first Spring Training with the Mets, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News writes.  By the time Wacha met with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and assistant pitching coach Jeremy Accardo in camp, “they said my mechanical changes that I made over the offseason were exactly what they were going to be telling me,” Wacha said.  “Exactly the same type of information or helpful tips that they were trying to get me into, I already made them on my own.”  The early returns in Grapefruit League action were somewhat promising, as Wacha posted a 1.17 ERA over 7 2/3 innings, albeit with four walks against only five strikeouts.  However, Wacha also didn’t allow any home runs, which was a positive sign after an ugly 1.8 HR/9 helped push his ERA to 4.76 over 126 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season.  Wacha signed a one-year, $3MM with the Mets in the offseason and now looks to be a member of their starting five, in the wake of Noah Syndergaard’s season-ending Tommy John surgery.

Mets Still Pursuing Sale Efforts

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If you presumed the Mets had suspended their efforts to find a new owner, think again. Per Daniel Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription link), the club’s representatives are continuing to seek purchasers.

It’s hard to believe it was less than two months ago that the club broke off its anticipated deal with minority owner Steve Cohen. Under that arrangement, the current Wilpon ownership group would’ve retained operational control for a five-year period. The team is now offering an arrangement with no strings attached.

Suffice to say the economic picture for a baseball franchise is rather more complicated now than it was then. Still, it sounds as if the Mets are sticking to their $2.6B asking price and still pressing forward in an effort to find a taker.

As Kaplan writes, some initial leads have already dried up with the sudden economic downturn. Ongoing uncertainty, both generally and in the operation of a major-league organization, will surely give added pause.

Still, this represents quite a rare opportunity to take over a New York-based baseball club. If indeed the team is able to maintain traction on the sale effort, it could make for an interesting test of the value of franchises.

It’s often said that operating profit isn’t the true source of a team’s value; rather, like a piece of fine art, the investment lies in capital appreciation. That may well be. But teams have increasingly shown an appreciation for the end-of-year bottom line. Cash flow is a significant part of the picture when it comes to the game of baseball. In this case, the spigot seems sure to turn back on, but it’s possible it may sputter for a time and may not flow in quite the same way once it steadies.

Noah Syndergaard Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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March 27: Syndergaard underwent surgery yesterday at the Hospital for Special Surgery in West Palm Beach, Fla., tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

March 24, 2:58pm: The Mets have formally announced that Syndergaard will undergo Tommy John surgery on Thursday. He’ll be out until at least April of 2021. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen offered the following statement, via press release:

After experiencing discomfort in his elbow before Spring Training was suspended due to the pandemic, Noah and our health and performance department have been in constant contact. Based on the persistence of his symptoms, Noah underwent a physical examination and MRI that revealed the ligament tear. A second opinion from Dr. Neal ElAttrache confirmed the diagnosis and the recommendation for surgery. Noah is an incredibly hard worker and a tremendous talent. While this is unfortunate, we have no doubt that Noah will be able to return to full strength and continue to be an integral part of our Championship pursuits in the future.

2:41pm: Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). It’s a rather stunning and out-of-the-blue development, as Syndergaard looked relatively sharp in Spring Training — three runs on five hits and no walks with 11 strikeouts in eight innings — and wasn’t known to be experiencing any notable discomfort.

The Syndergaard news is a devastating blow to a Mets rotation that looked to have the makings of a quality group. Jacob deGrom, of course, has won the past two National League Cy Young Awards and will return to front the staff, but Syndergaard had been slotted into the second spot in the rotation behind him. His injury makes last summer’s acquisition of Marcus Stroman all the more important but also serves to highlight the team’s inability to work out an extension with righty Zack Wheeler despite multiple attempts over the past couple of seasons. Wheeler signed a fjve-year deal with the division-rival Phillies this winter, though an extension prior to reaching the open market likely wouldn’t have proved as costly — particularly were it agreed upon prior to the 2019 campaign.

Beyond the combination of deGrom and Stroman, the Mets will turn to Steven Matz and rebound candidates Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha — both signed to one-year deals in the offseason. Porcello remained a durable workhorse for the Red Sox but was tattooed for a 5.52 ERA and better than 10 hits per nine innings in his 32 starts and 174 1/3 innings last year. Wacha, meanwhile, battled injuries for the third time in four seasons, spending time on the IL due to a knee problem and finishing out the year on the sideline due to shoulder troubles. Since emerging as a full-time member of the Cardinals’ rotation in 2014, Wacha averaged 24 starts and 134 innings per season.

The injury to Syndergaard will put to test general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s offseason comments about having “probably the deepest rotation in baseball.” After all, if any of deGrom, Stroman, Matz, Porcello or Wacha struggles or lands on the injured list, the Mets’ slate of alternatives in the upper minors looks decidedly pedestrian. Walker Lockett, Stephen Gonsalves, Franklyn Kilome and Corey Oswalt — the latter three of whom were already optioned out of Major League camp — are the top names on the 40-man roster. Veteran righty Erasmo Ramirez was trying to win a job in camp on a non-roster deal after enduring a pair of miserable seasons.

With Syndergaard out for all of the 2020 season — assuming there is one — the Mets will be left with only one year of club control remaining over the powerhouse righty. Syndergaard is owed a $9.7MM salary after avoiding arbitration this winter, and he’ll surely command the exact same salary for the 2021 campaign; virtually all arbitration-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury are brought back at the same rate they’d earned the previous season (with the exception of first-time eligible players). And given the timing of the surgery, Syndergaard can reasonably expect to pitch the bulk of next season, so there’s almost no chance he’ll be non-tendered, barring some notable setback(s) prior to December. Syndergaard is slated to become a free agent upon conclusion of the 2021 season.

Rookie Radar: NL East

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has recently taken a look at some potential impact rookies throughout the AL Central and AL West. Steve Adams handled the NL West. Now let’s move on to the NL East, which was one of the strongest divisions in baseball in 2019, with four teams finishing .500 or above. 2020 figures to be just as competitive. Perhaps a strong rookie season could be a difference-maker for one of these teams. Who could it be? Let’s take a look at some of the contenders.

Braves

The Braves already have a crowded outfield at the big league level. But if any kind of opportunity should present itself, Cristian Pache is going to be waiting in the wings. The 21-year-old has received more praise for his defense and speed than for his offense. But his bat seemed to turn a corner in 2019. Over 433 plate appearances at Double-A, he put up a slash line of .278/.340/.474, good enough for a wRC+ of 134. His Triple-A numbers aren’t as strong, with a line of .274/.337/.411 and a wRC+ of 92. That was over a smaller sample of 105 plate appearances, though, and he was only 20 years old.

Pache could have competition in the form of fellow outfield prospect Drew Waters, who is following a similar trajectory. Waters was also 20 last year and spent the bulk of the season at Double-A, where he managed a lofty 144 wRC+. He also had a cup of coffee at Triple-A, where his wRC+ dropped to 84 at Triple-A. While both Pache and Waters while played 26 games at Triple-A, Waters dwarfed Pache in the strikeout column, 43 to 18.

On the pitching side, the Braves have a pile of young arms who are slated to be in Triple-A to start the year, fighting to be the first one to get the call. The 24-year-old Kyle Wright has electric stuff but hasn’t been able to translate it into success at the big league level yet. It’s a similar story for 22-year-old Bryse Wilson. Ian Anderson is only 21 and isn’t on the 40-man, but he has already been bumped up to Triple-A after dominating in Double-A.

Marlins

The rebuilding Marlins already have lots of promising youngsters on the roster right now, and there are more on the way. Sixto Sanchez hasn’t reached Triple-A yet, but after dominating in Double-A with a 2.53 ERA over 103 innings, it’s possible he won’t need too much time there. Same goes for Edward Cabrera, whose Double-A ERA was just a smidge higher at 2.56, though in a smaller sample of 38 2/3 innings. Evaluators are split as to which of the two should be ranked higher. If you’re the Marlins, that’s a good problem to have.

In terms of position players, the most exciting options are outfielders. Jesus Sanchez has a tremendous bat but lacks plate discipline. Monte Harrison’s defensive skills give him a decent floor. But the bat will need to take another step for him to reach his ceiling. He put up a decent line of  .274/.357/.451 in Triple-A in 2019, good enough for a wRC+ of 97, just below league average.

Mets

The Mets’ rotation took a big hit when it was announced that Noah Syndergaard will undergo Tommy John Surgery. And while they may turn to veterans like Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo to pick up the slack, they could also look to some of the rookies they have in the minors. David Peterson hasn’t reached Triple-A just yet, but he threw 116 Double-A innings in 2019, with an ERA of 4.19 and 9.47 K/9. Franklyn Kilome missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, but he was the Mets’ fifth-best prospect at that point. Stephen Gonsalves was once a highly-touted prospect in the Twins’ system, though an injury-plagued 2019 led to them losing him to the Mets on waivers. He’s still 25 and could be a wild-card factor if he can get healthy and regain his form.

As far as position players go, shortstop Andres Gimenez is an exciting prospect (mostly because of his speed and defense). The 21-year-old swiped 66 bags from 2018-19, so the big question is how he’ll do with the bat. Gimenez spent 2019 at Double-A, slashing a mediocre .250/.309/.387, but he’s still young. And since the Mets have plenty of middle infield options such as Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil and maybe even Jed Lowrie, it will be difficult for Gimenez to contribute as soon as 2020.

Nationals

For the Nats, the most important rookie is definitely Carter Kieboom, one of the best prospects in baseball. The infielder had an excellent 2019 at the Triple-A level, slashing .303/.409/.493 for a wRC+ of 123. The 22-year-old wasn’t able to carry those numbers into his MLB debut last season, but it was only an 11-game sample size.

With Anthony Rendon moving to California, there’s an opening for Kieboom to be the everyday third baseman. He’ll have to earn it because the Nats brought back Asdrubal Cabrera as a fallback option, but they’d surely prefer for the 22-year-old Kieboom to take the job. That would enable the Nats to use Cabrera in a utility role.

Phillies

Alec Bohm’s calling card is his bat. As a 22-year-old in 2019, he played 22 games in A-ball and produced a wRC+  of 196. In A+, he played 40 games with a wRC+ of 165. In 63 games at Double-A, the wRC+ was 146. If he can keep hitting in Triple-A, the question will be where to put him. Bohm mostly plays third, but many evaluators feel that his defense is too weak for the hot corner and suggest a move to first. The Phillies would surely love for Bohm to prove those evaluators wrong because they have Rhys Hoskins entrenched at first. Their current plan for the rest of the infield is to deploy Jean Segura at third, Didi Gregorius at short and Scott Kingery at second. But since Segura can also play shortstop or second, Bohm could nudge his way into the picture if any one of them goes down with an injury.

On the mound, the big name to watch is Spencer Howard. Despite injuries limiting his total output in 2019, he still put up great numbers when healthy. In 30 2/3 innings at Double-A, his ERA was 2.35. And Howard, 23, capped off his season with 21 1/3 innings of 2.11 ERA ball in the Arizona Fall League. The Philly rotation is a bit flimsy, with guys like Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin keeping a tenuous hold on back-end spots, so a healthy Howard could shove his way into the equation.

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