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KBO’s Doosan Bears To Sign Chris Flexen

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Right-hander Chris Flexen is set to join the Doosan Bears of the Korea Baseball Organization, reports Marc Carig of the Athletic (via Twitter). The Mets designated Flexen for assignment yesterday to make way for Brad Brach.

The terms of the deal aren’t yet known, but Flexen will presumably take home significantly more with the Bears than he would’ve had he cleared waivers and remained in the Mets’ system. The 25-year-old has made 27 appearances (11 starts) at the big league level for New York since 2017. They’ve not gone well, as Flexen has a cumulative 8.07 ERA with 49 strikeouts and 54 walks in 68 innings.

Disastrous MLB results aside, Flexen was solid this season with Triple-A Syracuse. In 78.2 innings across 26 games (14 starts) in the hitter-friendly International league, he worked to a 4.46 ERA with a strong combination of strikeouts (26.7%) and walks (6.1%). He also showed a velocity boost in his brief big league time in 2019, averaging 94.54 MPH on his four-seam fastball, up from 93.31 MPH the year prior, per Brooks Baseball.

Between his youth, arm speed and high minors results, it’s easy to see why the Bears are intrigued by Flexen. He’ll need to demonstrate better control in the KBO, but Flexen’s certainly young enough to pop back up on MLB teams’ radars in the future.

Mets Interested In Rick Porcello

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With Zack Wheeler officially jumping ship to join a division rival, the Mets are exploring options on the starting pitching market, speaking with free agent right-hander Rick Porcello and his representatives, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR tabbed Porcello to receive a one-year deal worth $11MM. Coming off an awful 2019 season, the 30-year-old doesn’t have all that many factors working in his favor, but the sheer number of teams lacking depth in the starting rotation makes it a likely proposition that Porcello attracts his fair share of interest—especially given his durability; he’s never made fewer than 27 starts in any of his eleven big league seasons.

And while he can hardly be considered a direct substitute for Wheeler’s production, Porcello nonetheless represents an intriguing option with some potential. After a nice 2018 showing, Porcello regressed considerably last year, stumbling to a 5.52 ERA that ranked dead last among qualified starters. But his control and K:BB ratio makes him a viable candidate for a spot in the back end of a Major League rotation.

The question that defines Porcello’s market is how much teams buy into his ability to spin the baseball, which ranks among the best in baseball. Per Statcast, the spin rates Porcello generates on his curveball and fastball rank in the 89th and 74th percentiles, respectively, with his slider also grading out well. Teams who think they can transform that skill into on-field results might look to add Porcello on a relatively low-risk deal.

However, that profile glosses over his troubling inability to prevent home runs. Porcello ranks firmly below average in groundball rate and home run rate, and while that in itself isn’t a dealbreaker (he shares company with names like Jack Flaherty, Gerrit Cole, and Justin Verlander) it often spells bad news for a pitcher who doesn’t miss a lot of bats—Porcello saw his K/9 drop from a career-best 8.9 in 2018 to just 7.4 last year. The aforementioned trio of Cy Young contenders is distinguished from Porcello in that their opponents simply don’t put the ball in play enough to do real damage with the home run. It bears mentioning that New York’s Citi Field certainly offers a more pitcher-friendly environment that could mitigate Porcello’s weakness somewhat.

While the Cy Young Award on his mantle suggests otherwise, Porcello has never really been a bona fide ace. Still, he showed in 2018 that he can be a fine complementary rotation piece, filling out the Boston staff behind Chris Sale and David Price. Just one season removed from that 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP year, Porcello could fill a similar role behind the Mets’ Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. And given the organization’s penchant for honing starters’ sliders, the Mets may aim to boost his slider (and curveball) usage at the cost of his fastball and sinker, which opposing hitters collectively mashed in 2019.

Latest On Mets' Ownership

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There may be huge changes on the horizon for the Mets, as minority owner Steve Cohen is reportedly in talks to become the franchise’s control person by 2025. That could be good news for Mets fans, many of whom have been fed up with current majority owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon for years. David Waldstein, Kevin Draper and James Wagner of the New York Times just profiled the Wilpons, and if you’re a Mets fan who reads that, you’ll probably grow even happier that the team could change hands in the next several years. As part of a piece that seems to list one damning Wilpon tidbit after another, Waldstein, Draper and Wagner note that the Mets have lost $60MM-plus in each of the past two seasons. That helps put them “at the limit of debt allowed by Major League Baseball rules,” they write. It’s unclear what that will mean as far as making changes to the roster this offseason goes, but as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained back in October, there doesn’t appear to be much spending room.

Mets Re-Sign Brad Brach

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2:55pm: Brach’s signing has been announced. The club designated righty Chris Flexen for assignment to create roster space.

1:13pm: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Brad Brach, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’s said to be promised a $850K salary for the 2020 season (on top of the $500K he’s already owed by the Cubs). Brach is a client of Big League Management.

While the single-season earnings are relatively modest, the deal does include a $1.25MM player option that provides a backstop for the 33-year-old reliever. The price tag goes up based upon the number of games he appears in. ($125K at 20 games; $350K apiece upon his 30th, 35th, 40th, 50th, 60th, and 65th appearances.) There are incentives in both years of the contract, also tied to appearances (beginning with his 50th).

Brach has deep ties to the area, having grown up and played his college ball in New Jersey. It was seen as something of a homecoming when he landed in Queens in the middle of the 2019 season. As I noted in previewing the Mets’ offseason, it seemed sensible to imagine a reunion.

Both team and player obviously enjoyed the experience. For the second-straight season, Brach turned around suboptimal results after swapping jerseys in the middle of the year. In 39 2/3 innings with the Cubs, Brach limped to a 6.13 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and an alarming 6.4 BB/9. But with the Mets, he allowed six earned runs in 14 2/3 frames while posting a strong 15:3 K/BB ratio.

What changed? Brach was pumping his customary 95 mph for most of his tenure in Chicago and continued upon moving to New York. But there was some chatter that Brach had been tipping his changeup. And pitch-tracking software identified a major shift in usage in favor of a cut fastball. The new approach worked, at least in a short sample.

For the Mets, this move plugs one bullpen opening with a known quantity who has late-inning experience. Brach is now a few years removed from his best years in Baltimore, but this seems like a nice price tag for the veteran. The Mets will still need to look for creative ways of boosting their relief unit.

Mets Sign Jarrett Parker, Max Moroff

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The Mets have signed outfielder Jarrett Parker and infielder Max Moroff to minor league deals, the team announced.  Parker and Moroff will both be invited to the team’s Major League spring camp.

Parker, who turns 31 on New Year’s Day, was a second-round pick for the Giants in 2010 who only developed into a part-time option for San Francisco over 135 games from 2015-17.  After sitting out the 2018 season entirely, Parker signed a minors contract with the Angels that resulted in a .266/.394/.535 slash line and 24 homers over 424 Triple-A plate appearances, plus five MLB appearances.  The left-handed hitting Parker can play center field in a pinch and saw some action at first base for Triple-A Salt Lake in 2019, though the bulk of his experience has been as a corner outfielder.

Moroff brings added defensive versatility, as he has extensively played both middle infield spots as well as third base and even some work in both corner outfield positions.  While the 26-year-old Moroff hasn’t been able to offer is much hitting, as he has only a .183/.277/.319 slash line over 244 Major League PA with the Pirates and Indians since 2016, and also hasn’t done much at the plate at the Triple-A level.

Mets Acquire Jake Marisnick

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10:40am: The Astros and Mets have both announced the trade.

10:27am: Houston will receive left-hander Blake Taylor and outfielder Kenedy Corona in return for Marisnick, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. Taylor was on the Mets’ 40-man roster after having his contract selected last month and will now go on Houston’s 40-man roster.

10:05am: The Mets and Astros are in agreement on a trade that will send outfielder Jake Marisnick from Houston to New York, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first (via Twitter) reported that the two sides were close to a deal. Houston will receive a pair of minor leaguers in return for Marisnick, per SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).

Jake Marisnick | Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

The trade is seemingly a sensible move for both clubs. Houston has an abundance of outfielders on the roster with Michael Brantley, George Springer, Kyle Tucker, Josh Reddick, Myles Straw and Yordan Alvarez all likely ticketed for varying levels of time in the outfield in 2020. Meanwhile, the Mets have a need for a center fielder but also lack payroll flexibility, making Marisnick and his projected $3MM salary an appealing target. The Astros themselves are on the cusp of luxury tax territory, so shedding even a relatively minimal salary is of some help. As noted in our Offseason Outlook on the Astros, looking to move the salaries of Marisnick and/or Reddick was a plausible course of action for Houston this winter. It still seems likely that they’ll at least explore their options with Reddick and his $13MM salary.

Marisnick, 29 in March, will be a short-term acquisition for Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen and his staff, as he’s entering his final season of club control. He’s been utilized in a part-time capacity in Houston and hasn’t provided much offense in recent years, hitting .224/.283/.406 over the past two seasons combined. But Marisnick runs well and grades out as a terrific outfield defender; over the past two years he’s registered 17 Defensive Runs Saved, a +7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating and 21 Outs Above Average despite only logging 1327 innings in the outfield. For a Mets club that has long struggled on the defensive side of the game, Marisnick’s glove will be a welcome addition even if it comes at the cost of some offense.

In some ways, the acquisition of Marisnick mirrors the Mets’ acquisition of Keon Broxton last January. Like Broxton, Marisnick is a glove-first center fielder with notable strikeout issues and a history of OBP deficiency. His swing-and-miss troubles aren’t as extreme as were Broxton’s, however, and Marisnick has a lengthier track record as a generally useful player. He’s typically been worth between one and two wins above replacement in each of the past five years and could, of course, deliver a bit more overall value if he’s afforded more playing time. Even if he washes out in his new setting (as Broxton did), the financial hit won’t be substantial, and given his limited offensive track record and waning club control, the prospect cost to acquire him was rather minimal.

Neither Taylor nor Corona are considered to be among the Mets’ top prospects. The 24-year-old Taylor did log a 2.16 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 66 1/3 minor league innings of relief, but he did so against much younger competition. Taylor opened the year at Class-A Advanced, despite his age, and only moved up to Double-A midway through the season. Taylor did briefly reach Triple-A in 2018 but struggled both there and in Double-A, leading to the decision to have him repeat multiple minor league levels in 2019. His improved results are encouraging, but he’ll turn 25 next season and has only pitched 50 innings above A-ball, so he’s far from a sure bet to make an impact out of the Astros’ bullpen.

Corona, 19, signed with the Mets as an international amateur less than a year ago. He hit .301/.398/.470 in 63 minor league games this season, but as was the case with Taylor, he was older than the average competition he was facing. Corona, who’ll turn 20 next March, began the season in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League, though he did top out with four games with the Mets’ short-season Class-A affiliate. He’ll likely be ticketed for A-ball in 2020, where the Astros will get a better idea of how he can handle more experienced competition.

Steve Cohen In Talks To Increase Investment In Mets

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The Mets announced this afternoon that minority owner Steve Cohen and the Sterling Partners (owner Fred Wilpon’s company) are negotiating a deal in which Cohen “would increase his investment in the New York Mets.” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported the news just minutes before the organization made a formal announcement (Twitter link).

The arrangement would make Cohen the new majority owner of the Mets if it is indeed completed, as Bloomberg reports that the proposed sale of shares would give him an 80 percent share of the team, which is being valued at $2.6 billion. Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that Cohen would become the Mets’ control person heading into the 2025 season under the current proposal.

Under the terms of the yet-to-be-finalized agreement, Fred Wilpon (the co-founder and senior partner of Sterling Equities) would remain the Mets’ CEO and control person for another five years. His son, Jeff Wilpon, would also remain COO for another five years. Cohen will continue on as CEO of Point72 Asset Management, per the announcement.

Any ownership-level shakeup, of course, can have payroll implications for a team, but there’s no immediate indication that the Mets will increase spending in the near future. To the contrary, multiple reports this week have indicated that the Mets may need to move some undesirable contracts before spending further this winter — a reality that has long since been apparent to any who’ve closely examined the team’s payroll outlook. As for what would happen with regard to team payroll down the line, that can’t be known at this time, but it’s worth highlighting that the Bloomberg Billionaire Index lists Cohen’s net worth at a staggering $9.2 billion.

Today’s announcement seemingly puts a finite window on the Wilpons’ rein atop the organization and, as ESPN’s Buster Olney points out (Twitter link), perhaps explains why the club has been so focused on winning as soon as possible and making splashy moves toward that end. The Wilpon family has long been among the most highly scrutinized ownership groups in all of Major League Baseball, with reports of organizational dysfunction and over-involvement in more granular aspects of day-to-day operations becoming commonplace in recent years.

Mets Reportedly Looking To Move Bad Contracts

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The Mets entered the winter in a bit of a payroll predicament. Now, they’re searching for a creative way to resolve it, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link).

While the New York payroll limit isn’t known publicly, the front office seemingly feels it may be best served moving money off of the books. The contracts of veterans Jeurys Familia and Jed Lowrie are each under water after brutal 2019 seasons, so that seems to be the place the club is targeting.

Of course, no other club is going to have interest in paying Familia ($22MM through 2021) and Lowrie ($13MM through 2020) what they’re still owed. But the Mets are floating a “concept,” per Rosenthal, by which they’d attach some of those unwanted payroll obligations to an otherwise positive-value player-asset. Say, Dominic Smith and his five remaining seasons of team control.

Just how likely this is to come to fruition isn’t clear. But it’s conceptually possible. The Mets picked up Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano last winter on this essential model (though that only makes it all the more frustrating to be pursuing this sort of pact in the opposite direction, involving other recently acquired players). And Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the team actually had a chance to pull off such a scenario at the trade deadline involving Familia and Zack Wheeler.

It’s hard to conceive just what a Familia-Wheeler swap might have looked like — it’s tough to imagine any team would have taken on a big piece of that salary to rent Wheeler for a few months — but it seems the pursuit gained some traction. Then again, Martino also asserts in another tweet that the Mets nearly pulled off a Wheeler-Noah Syndergaard blockbuster before backing out of talks with the Astros. It appears the Brodie Van Wagenen-led front office has explored a wide array of possibilities in recent months.

It will be interesting to see if the Mets can find a salary swapping partner that makes sense. While parting with talent to dump payroll isn’t always advisable, the New York club may be particularly well-situated to do it. Smith is a unique asset: young and affordable, with a solid recent track record and a prospect background, but also largely superfluous to the Mets. Perhaps J.D. Davis could be another candidate to function in a trade of this kind, though he could also still have a functional role on the roster. If there’s an opportunity to free capital to improve the roster in other ways, it makes sense to pursue. But it’s also possible to imagine Smith and/or Davis being cashed in for prospects instead, so it’s important to consider that opportunity cost in assessing the possibilities.

Brewers Willing To Listen On Josh Hader Trade

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Brewers’ star reliever Josh Hader is “available” in trade, reports the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. While Rosenthal indicates that no deal is close, Hader’s inclusion on the trade market could make for one of the more fascinating storylines of the coming months.

The 25-year-old southpaw has emerged as perhaps the best reliever in baseball since making his MLB debut in 2017. For his career, Hader has tossed 204.2 relief innings with a 2.42 ERA and an otherworldly 44.6% strikeout rate. Working without a set role and capable of handling multiple innings in an outing, Hader has exceeded 75 innings each of the last two seasons, all the while recording dominant strikeout numbers.

If there’s a blemish on Hader’s resume, he was a bit home run prone in 2019. He was hardly unique in that regard, of course, but Hader’s 15 home runs allowed pushed his ERA to a career-worst (albeit still stellar) 2.62. That’s not to diminish, though, just how dominant Hader has been. His 47.8% strikeout rate last year was easily the league’s best (minimum 50 innings); the 6.1 percentage point gap between Hader and second-place Nick Anderson equaled the gap between Anderson and fifteenth-place Chris Sale.

Why would the Brewers consider moving Hader coming off back-to-back playoff berths of which he was an integral part? Rosenthal argues it’s simply the nature of being a low payroll organization; the front office can never afford to completely shut itself out from any opportunity. That’s not to say Hader’s priced himself out of Milwaukee. Hader qualified for Super Two and is projected for an extremely affordable $4.6MM salary, although Rosenthal notes that Hader’s reps at CAA figure to argue for something a bit greater based on Hader’s status as a player of “special accomplishment.”

Regardless of whether that argument proves successful, Hader certainly remains a bargain. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season. His employer, be it the Brewers or some eventual trade partner, wouldn’t be committed to any long-term expenditure if he were to regress and/or suffer an injury. Perhaps no reliever in history can boast of Hader’s recent combination of dominance and volume.

One speculative target whom Rosenthal points to is the Mets, although he adds it’s unclear if New York and Milwaukee have actually discussed a Hader trade. New York is certainly on the hunt for bullpen help, and Mets’ GM Brodie Van Wagenen co-represented Hader at CAA before taking over in Flushing. As Rosenthal notes, Van Wagenen has shown an affinity for pursuing his former clients in trade and/or free agency. While the Mets’ farm system has been depleted in recent months (most notably when Van Wagenen parted with Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn to bring in former client Robinson Canó), Rosenthal speculates that New York could move pieces directly off its big league roster to facilitate a deal.

That said, virtually every present contender- or team angling towards contention in the near future- figures to have some level of interest in Hader. He’s affordable enough to fit into any team’s budget, and he would be the biggest weapon in essentially any bullpen he’s part of. As Rosenthal notes, some clubs could have concerns that Hader’s unconventionally high volume might eventually catch up with him. To this point, though, Hader’s shown no sign of letting up. Any slight downturn in performance in 2019 can be explained by the liveliness of the baseball, and he’s never had a stint on the injured list.

With all the appeals in Hader’s profile, Milwaukee has little urgency to make a move. If no one meets their exorbitant asking price, the Brewers could certainly bring Hader back and hope for similar dominance moving forward. Listening to offers is hardly the same as aggressively shopping a player. Perhaps nothing will come together in the long run.

Yet Hader’s situation will be fascinating to follow. With free agency starved for relievers, teams set on acquiring one with a high-end track record will have to work the trade market. No one can quite match the track record Hader’s put together over the past few seasons, setting the stage for a potential blockbuster.

Tracking Mets Payroll Over The Decade

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  • Tim Britton of The Athletic tracks payroll trends surrounding the Mets over the last decade, with his analysis resting largely on info culled from Baseball Prospectus’ Cot’s On Contracts. Though perhaps unsurprising to most faithful followers of the team, Britton notes that New York has enacted the lowest percentage increase in total payroll among all teams in this decade. While total MLB revenue has risen nearly 50 percent in the last ten years, the Mets have not kept pace with other big-market spenders (New York was third in payroll over the course of the aughts, but spent the majority of this decade outside the top ten in payroll spending). Still, it’s important to emphasize that the Mets’ payroll is trending up of late, with GM Brodie Van Wagenen denying to speak unequivocally about a potential approach to the $208MM CBT line.
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