Mets Notes: Colon, Williams, Drew
Here's the latest from Citi Field…
- Bartolo Colon's two-year, $20MM deal with the Mets breaks down as $9MM in 2014 and $11MM in 2015, ESPN New York's Adam Rubin reports. Rubin estimates that the Mets' 2014 payroll currently sits at roughly $85.9MM.
- The Mets discussed Jerome Williams earlier this offseason, MLB.com's Anthony DiComo tweets, though his name hasn't come up since Colon signed. Williams is hoping to find a full-time rotation job and the Mets can't guarantee him a regular turn. At least eight to 10 teams checked in on Williams after he was non-tendered by the Angels, and he already received a few offers during the Winter Meetings, with most of the interest coming from the AL West and AL Central.
- Since the Mets don't project to be contenders in 2014, ESPN's Buster Olney opines (Insider subscription required) that signing Stephen Drew doesn't make sense for the team, barring the unlikely event that Drew agrees to a team-friendly one-year deal.
- In other Mets-related news from earlier today, the Mets signed Taylor Teagarden to a minor league deal and Brewers GM Doug Melvin said he was in "ongoing discussions" with Mets GM Sandy Alderson about a trade involving a first baseman (namely, Ike Davis) but nothing has materialized.
Doug Melvin On Free Agency, Relievers, Mets
Brewers general manager Doug Melvin spoke to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy about the team's relatively quiet offseason thus far and some other hot stove items…
- The Brewers are the only team who has yet to sign a free agent to a Major League contract, as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently examined. Melvin said the Brewers haven't delved into the free agent market is due to both the team's plan to "go with our young guys" and an overall lack of suitable fits for Milwaukee's payroll. “If you look at a lot of the teams that got involved in free agency in the past few years, it hasn’t been that successful for them — and then there are the players whose price range isn’t even close to what we could consider. We’re putting a lot of faith into our system," Melvin said. “We weren’t going to get [Shin-Soo] Choo. We weren’t going to get Robinson Cano,” Melvin said. “We can look at $5-$6MM, but if we think our guys are better or as good at $500K, why would we make a move just to make a move?”
- Melvin is open to adding a veteran reliever to the young arms in the Milwaukee bullpen, implying that such an addition would come in a trade. "Our bullpen is an area that we’ve talked about maybe whether we would add an experienced piece or not," the GM said.
- The Mets have discussed Ike Davis in trade talks with the Brewers (as well as the Pirates and Orioles) and Melvin confirmed that some talks had taken place. "First base, I’ve had ongoing discussions with Sandy Alderson, but we haven’t gotten to anything where we’re comfortable with the deal from our side, and he’s not been comfortable with the deal from his side.”
- While Melvin declined to say whether he found the Mets' asking price too high, Melvin did say that “I think we’ve pretty well stood by — the one thing we’ve done is we do not want to give up pitching.” The Mets reportedly asked for promising young right-hander Tyler Thornburg in exchange for Davis last month.
Mets Don’t Want To Go Beyond One Year For Drew
The Mets don't want to offer Stephen Drew a deal of more than one year, New York Daily News' Andy Martino writes. It's mostly Scott Boras, rather than the Mets, initiating contact between the two sides, and Martino reports that the Mets could attempt to wait Drew out, hoping to sign him cheaply later in the offseason.
Martino also suggests Drew's medicals could be an issue, although it's unclear exactly what that might mean. Drew missed three weeks with a hamstring injury last season, although he played well after he returned. He also missed significant chunks of the 2011 and 2012 seasons with an ankle injury.
Drew hit .253/.333/.433 for the Red Sox last season, and there are a number of teams he should be able to help. Many of those teams prefer to use their own younger shortstop options, however, and the fact that Drew declined a qualifying offer appears to be hurting his market. The Mets' first-round pick is protected, however, and they already gave up their second-round pick to get Curtis Granderson, so they would only have to sacrifice a third-round pick if they signed Drew.
NL Notes: Davis, Buck, Cardinals
With Winter Storm Ion pummeling the eastern half of the United States, let's warm ourselves on the Hot Stove with the latest National League news and notes:
- The Mets expect to begin Spring Training next month with Ike Davis still in the fold, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. The Brewers and Pirates have been the clubs most linked to Davis and the Mets are willing to re-engage in trade talks with them or any other team. The Orioles have also shown interest in the 26-year-old first baseman, but they turned down the Mets' request of pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez and are notably not mentioned in Rubin's article.
- The Mets are open to adding more depth at catcher, but have no interest in a reunion with John Buck, tweets the New York Post's Mike Puma.
- International free agency has been key to the Cardinals' having the game's best farm system, according to Derrick Goold of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. The club's top position and pitching prospects (Oscar Taveras and Carlos Martinez, respectively) were both signed as international free agents, Goold notes.
Mets Front Office Divided On Stephen Drew
The Mets remain engaged with agent Scott Boras about free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew, but a source familiar with the process tells Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that Drew is more of a "possibility" than a "probability" for them. Team officials are divided about how valuable Drew would be to the Mets.
The Mets would be more willing to consider a one- or two-year deal for Drew at the right price but don't want to go to three years or beyond. Andy Martino of the Daily News (on Twitter) gets the sense that the Mets have a strong reluctance towards offering anything more than one year. However, Rubin writes that if Drew were to accept a shorter-term deal, the feeling is that it would be with the Red Sox. Because of that, some Mets officials are wary that Boras is using them to drive up the price in Boston. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently explored possible destinations for the 14th-ranked player on MLBTR's 2014 Top 50 Free Agents list including the Astros, Yankees, Twins, Royals, and Marlins, in addition to the Mets and Red Sox.
A team insider tells Rubin that he doesn't think the Mets would need to shed payroll in order to free available space for Drew. It also helps that their first-round pick is protected. The Mets have already forfeited their second-round draft choice for signing Curtis Granderson, so inking Drew would cost them their third-round selection and its assigned slot-value, something, according to Rubin, they are not totally averse to considering.
The club has made it known that they're comfortable with using Ruben Tejada at shortstop, a revelation that was surprising given his recent history with the Mets. The Mets always recognized that he has talent, but his work ethic and motivation was repeatedly called into question in 2013.
Cafardo On Red Sox, Denorfia, Cruz, Kemp
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there were two disasters in the city of Toronto last year: mayor Rob Ford and the Blue Jays. Despite the high expectations, the Blue Jays fell flat and they'll have to rally back this season to re-energize their fan base. The Blue Jays are at a disadvantage, Cafardo writes, because players aren't always open to playing north of the border and tend not to realize how great it is until they're there. More from this week's column..
- The Brewers need a first baseman and Mike Carp of the Red Sox appears to be a good fit. Whether Boston would deal him remains to be seen, however, as they enjoyed his off-the-bench contributions last season. Carp has shown that he can play every day but he won’t get that opportunity with the Red Sox unless there’s an injury to Mike Napoli.
- While the Red Sox don’t believe they can carry another outfielder, they have expressed some interest in the Padres' Chris Denorfia, a righthanded bat with a little power who can play center field. The Red Sox might be able to swing a move like this, Cafardo writes, if they deal Carp or Daniel Nava somewhere.
- A few general managers think that a one-year pillow contract would make sense for free agent outfielder Nelson Cruz. It seems that he needs to reestablish his value and if he'd do a one-year pact, it could open more opportunities for him with clubs like the Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays, Orioles, and others. The 33-year-old remains one of the best power hitters out there, but teams are wary about PED guys after they’re off the stuff.
- Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp could still be trade bait as he starts to show what he can do in spring training. Said one scout familiar with Kemp, “I think he’s going to be a guy who will be OK this year, but you’ll get the best of Kemp the following year as he’s recovered completely from the ankle.”
- The Reds have been very quiet this offseason, but Homer Bailey’s name has come up quite often as possible trade bait. In fact, they could possibly bring back Bronson Arroyo if they can deal Bailey.
Rosenthal on Angels, Qualifying Offers, Drew, Jays, Putz
The Angels are likely to eclipse the $189MM luxury-tax threshold eventually, despite their efforts to avoid doing so this offseason, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. Sources tell the columnist that the Angels have between $13MM and $15MM of space left beneath the cap, figures that are much lower than what will be required to sign Masahiro Tanaka. However, extending Mike Trout at, say, $300MM over 10 years would make it difficult to avoid surpassing the threshold anyway, so the Angels may as well do so now, Rosenthal surmises. Here's more from his new column:
- This offseason's big contracts for less-than-durable stars like Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson and Brian McCann show that position players can earn more as free agents than they would with club-friendly, long-term deals. Meanwhile, clubs appear increasingly willing to move players who resist extensions. For example, sources tell Rosenthal that rival teams have asked about Astros catcher Jason Castro, who could be moved if Houston is unable to ink him long-term.
- Qualifying offers appear to have suppressed the market for players such as Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales, frustrating player representatives. Potential fixes to the system include guaranteeing that free agents receive a qualifying offer only once, or ensuring that teams signing free agents who received qualifying offers lose only draft picks and not their associated bonus-pool amounts. The current system will remain in place for another two offseasons, Rosenthal notes.
- Stephen Drew appears to be a fit for the Mets, rival executives say, despite the club's insistence that it will consider Ruben Tejada for its starting shortstop job.
- The Blue Jays remain among the favorites to sign either Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, despite their quiet offseason thus far. The Jays could acquire as many as two starters before the offseason is over, Rosenthal reports. In addition to upgrading through free agency, the club has also discussed trades for the Cubs' Jeff Samardzija and other starters.
- The Diamondbacks could trade J.J. Putz after acquiring Addison Reed from the White Sox. Swapping the righty for Yankees outfielder Ichiro Suzuki is one potential deal, or Putz could be packaged with other players in a deal for a starter such as Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers.
AL East Notes: Orioles, Yankees
We'll kick off the first weekend of 2014 with a few quick AL East notes …
- The Orioles have had trade discussions with the Mets involving not only Ike Davis, but also Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda, reports Educardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. But, as we learned already with regard to Davis, the talks never gained much traction given the Mets' focus on picking up a top young arm from the Orioles' system.
- Baltimore's first priority is adding starting pitching, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, taking precedence over the search for a DH and the possibility of adding a reliever. The O's are not shopping at the top end of that market, however. Meanwhile, the club's interest in Kendrys Morales is "waning," Kubatko senses. When asked whether the Baltimore roster was good enough to challenge for the post-season as presently constructed, executive VP Dan Duquette walked cautiously: "I think we have more work to do to accomplish that, but we're making progress. We added a couple left-handed hitters and there are some opportunities to help our pitching staff."
- Looking forward, the Yankees have six deals on the books that are likely to prove a burden, opines Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. The list (with remaining guaranteed years and money): Alex Rodriguez (four years, $90MM), Mark Teixeira (three years, $69.375MM), Ichiro Suzuki (1 year, $6.5MM), C.C. Sabathia (three years, $71MM), Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $153MM), and Derek Jeter (1 year, $12MM). Of course, each of these contract situations carries different kinds of concerns. Three are somewhat unsurprisingly problematic back-ends of long-term deals, though there is still some hope that the Yanks will get some value out of the remainder of those contracts. Two appear to be fairly substantial short-term drains for an organization that hoped to get under the luxury tax threshhold, but otherwise will not impact finances past 2014. And one is a freshly-inked long-term contract that could become a problem in the future — much in the way the earlier Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Sabathia contracts have shaken out of late — but which was presumably necessary to lure a top-tier talent to the Bronx.
The Teams That Could Use Stephen Drew The Most
Agent Scott Boras has a quality starting shortstop on his hands in free agent Stephen Drew. Drew, 31 in March, bears the stigma of costing a draft pick to sign. But in 2013 for the Red Sox, he hit .253/.333/.443 in 501 plate appearances and was worth 3.4 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs. That tied for eighth-best in baseball among shortstops.
If you are a believer in projection systems, Drew will not be a top ten shortstop in 2014. Using an average of projected 2014 WAR from Steamer, Oliver, and where available, ZiPS (all from FanGraphs), Drew ranks 23rd among starting shortstops with 2.0. Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias rank below Drew, but they are close enough that he wouldn't be a clear upgrade. We're left with six starting shortstops on whom Drew would be an upgrade, based on these projections: Jonathan Villar of the Astros, Derek Jeter of the Yankees, Ruben Tejada of the Mets, Pedro Florimon of the Twins, Alcides Escobar of the Royals, and Adeiny Hechavarria of the Marlins. Let's look at each situation individually.
- Astros: The Astros want to see what Villar, 23 in May, can do over the course of a full season. The Astros viewed the outfield as a place to potentially add a hitter, so they acquired Dexter Fowler in December. They also picked up first baseman/left fielder Jesus Guzman in another trade that month. For the Astros to displace Villar and give up the #33 pick in the draft, Drew would have to come at an extreme bargain. The Astros do not look like a fit, even if Drew would give them an extra win in 2014.
- Yankees: GM Brian Cashman told Peter Gammons in late December his team won't be signing Drew, which is a fairly rare comment on a specific free agent. Drew would only cost the #53 pick in the draft. But even if it makes some sense in a spreadsheet, adding him as insurance for Jeter could be controversial. Plus, the Yankees made a large commitment to Jeter and have more pressing needs right now.
- Mets: One rival GM thinks the Mets are feigning disinterest in Drew, according to Gammons, as he would be an upgrade on Tejada. Drew makes a ton of sense for the Mets, who would only have to surrender the #82 draft pick. The Mets are by far the best match for Drew.
- Twins: The Twins have spent $86.75MM on four free agents so far this winter, with 97% of that going toward pitching. Their draft pick cost would be #43, and I don't see why they wouldn't give Drew serious consideration. However, they seem set with Florimon.
- Royals: The Royals have spent big on free agents Omar Infante and Jason Vargas this winter, but don't seem interested in upgrading on Escobar even if they could afford Drew.
- Marlins: The Marlins have added four position players through free agency this winter, but they seem set with Hechavarria manning shortstop for years to come.
What about Drew's old team, the Red Sox? He may have less than 100 big league plate appearances to his name, but 21-year-old phenom Xander Bogaerts projects to be better than Drew in 2014. Re-signing Drew would mean not receiving a supplemental first round pick for losing him, so there is a cost in that regard. Drew makes sense if the Red Sox are wary of using Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks as their starters on the left side of the infield, though.
It seems the Mets and Boras will continue to play chicken regarding Drew, but GM Sandy Alderson does have the upper hand in that no other suitor is emerging. It seems to be the right time for a Mystery Team to step in. One Hail Mary option for Boras could be to market Drew as a potential second or third baseman in 2014, for teams with entrenched shortstops. Once again, Boras is tasked with pulling a rabbit out of his hat on a free agent client.
Quick Hits: Free Agents, Scherzer, Papelbon, Mulder
With Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kendrys Morales and Ervin Santana all in seeming free agent limbo after rejecting qualifying offers, Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan argues that the current free agent compensation system has proven to be too limiting. While teams will give up draft picks to sign bigger stars like Robinson Cano, the so-called second tier of free agents are finding it much harder to get work. "Last offseason, there were a number of guys affected in ways different than we expected compared to a freer market to pursue jobs. It appears that's happening again, " MLBPA executive director Tony Clark said. One club executive suggested to Passan that teams could make qualifying offers to more free agents next winter given the evidence about how it pushes prices down for some players.
Here's some more from around baseball…
- The Tigers have recently made several important moves in the post-Christmas offseason period, and 2014's big early-year move could be laying the groundwork for a Max Scherzer extension, MLB.com's Jason Beck opines. Beck thinks GM Dave Dombrowski will look to a one-year deal for 2014 to avoid going to arbitration with Scherzer, and those talks could lead to negotiations with agent Scott Boras over a longer-term extension.
- Also from Beck, he wonders if the Tigers could discuss a new contract with Miguel Cabrera (signed through 2015) or possibly add another reliever to the bullpen. Detroit has already addressed its main bullpen need by signing closer Joe Nathan, and also acquired Ian Krol and Joba Chamberlain for the relief corps.
- Jonathan Papelbon discussed his name surfacing in recent trade rumors, the differences between the Phillies' and Red Sox clubhouse atmospheres and his joy at seeing his ex-Boston teammates win the World Series last October in a frank radio interview with Rob Bradford and John McDonald on WEEI's Hot Stove Show. A partial transcript of the interview is available at WEEI.com.
- The Phillies were interested in Mark Mulder before the veteran signed with the Angels, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).
- Forbes Magazine's Maury Brown discusses Major League Baseball's growing revenues and the effect on player salaries and acquisitions in a podcast with BostInno's Alex Reimer, who has a partial transcript of the interview here.
- MLB.com's Anthony DiComo covers a number of Mets-related topics as part of a reader mailbag, including how he doesn't see Dee Gordon or Didi Gregorius as logical trade targets for the team.