Alfonso Soriano Trade Possibilities
Ken Rosenthal’s latest article mentions that a trade of Alfonso Soriano could happen, but Nationals are more likely to offer Soriano a long-term deal to convince him to become an outfielder. I don’t doubt Rosenthal, but let’s take a look at some possible suitors for the second baseman. I’ll assume that a trade signifies no position change.
First off, let’s narrow the field by looking at which teams lack an established 2B.
Blue Jays – Looks like Aaron Hill is the man at second base for 2006, and he’s a fairly solid hitter already. Plus, Soriano probably isn’t Ricciardi’s type of player.
Mariners – Jose Lopez will get the nod entering this season, and he slugged .505 during a couple of stints at Triple A. Giving him a full-time shot makes way more sense than trading for Soriano.
Marlins – Obviously the Fish aren’t dealing for Sori.
Mets – The Mets have made all sorts of splashes this winter, and adding a 2B isn’t top priority. They’d like to cut their losses with Matsui, but Jeff Keppinger and Anderson Hernandez are viable in-house candidates.
Cubs – The Cubs have a three-headed monster at second base, and Soriano probably doesn’t fit into the budget at $12MM+ over several years. The Cubs have a tradition of free swinging, and I could see Hendry trying this for 2006 if A)The Nationals win their arbitration case and/or eat some salary and B)the price is low.
Cardinals – St. Louis seems content with a battle between Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles for the 2B job. Plus, Soriano doesn’t seem like the typical St. Louis team player.
Padres – They’re going to let Mark Bellhorn, Eric Young, and Josh Barfield have a crack at 2B. Plus, I can’t see how Soriano would fit into the budget.
Of course, the Nationals already had an established 2B when they traded for Soriano, so maybe this isn’t the best guide. Rosenthal’s suggestion that Soriano will stay put is entirely logical once you break down the potential trade partners. If a deal was struck, it’d mostly be a salary dump and I think the only teams with mild interest would be the Cubs and Mets. Just my opinion.
Benson Dealt To Orioles; Zito Implications?
Many of you have already noticed by now that Newsday is reporting that the Mets traded Kris Benson to the Orioles for Jorge Julio and John Maine. A tip of the cap to Orioles Hangout; I’m pretty sure they confirmation first.
The question on most people’s minds is this: is the Benson swap the initial movement indicating a trade of Barry Zito to the Mets? If you recall, my Mets source indicated yesterday that Benson would be traded to Baltimore to acquire a prospect to Billy Beane’s liking. I’ve got word out to a couple of sources to see if anything has changed. In the meantime, let’s see what we can deduce.
First off, would the A’s have use for John Maine? The 24 year-old righty starter was ranked 6th in the Orioles’ organization by Baseball America entering the 2005 season. According to BA back then, Maine needed to refine his command and had a ceiling as a #3 starter. They also mentioned that he was "probably a #4 or 5 guy on a first-division club." Maine pitched kind of like a #4 starter in 128 innings at Triple A Ottawa in ’05. He posted a 4.56 ERA with improved control while maintaining a solid K rate.
I haven’t projected Maine myself yet, but ZiPS thought he’d throw 153 innings of 4.41 ball in his first extended trial with the Orioles. I think that’s great value for the price. For basis of comparison, Maine’s 2005 doesn’t look terribly different from Danny Haren‘s 2004. Haren was certainly better, but it’s a fair comparison. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus lists these comparables for Maine: Joel Pineiro (2002), A.J. Burnett (2001), Juan Marichal (1961), Bob Gibson (1960), and strangely, Jorge Julio (2003). I know the A’s already have a stable of starters, but Maine probably needs a little more time and a team can never have too much starting pitching depth.
I would speculate that the Mets would hang onto Jorge Julio to serve as Aaron Heilman‘s replacement. While most analysis today indicates that the Benson trade simply means Heilman starts for the Mets, I am skeptical. According to MetsBlog earlier this month:
"The problem is that the only person who seems to see Heilman as a starter is Heilman. Nearly all scouts and experts that I talked with all explained the same thing: Heilman’s repertoire is too hittable during his second time through a lineup."
Should Minaya package up Victor Diaz with someone to acquire a top flight prospect suitable to the A’s, I could really see this Zito deal coming to fruition.
New Possible Zito Scenario
Just got a note from my Mets source on a possible Barry Zito trade scenario. Here’s how this could play out:
The Orioles still have some interest in Kris Benson; VP Jim Duquette likes him. Benson would be dealt to the O’s for young players of Billy Beane’s choice.
Victor Diaz would be shipped off by the Mets as well, but again for prospects coveted by Oakland. The A’s don’t have room for Diaz given their glut of 1B/DH/OF types. The prospects from both deals would then be packaged with Aaron Heilman and the Mets would receive Zito.
The Mets would likely sign Jeff DaVanon to platoon in right field with Xavier Nady to complement this trade. The switch-hitting DaVanon didn’t do much with righties this year, but posted an .824 OPS against them in 2004. Nady has a career line of .323/.400/.452 in 124 at-bats versus southpaws. So keep an eye out for a DaVanon signing and Benson trade, because that could spell a Zito deal.
Latest Mets Rumblings
I spoke with my Mets source recently, and here’s what I came away with.
With Danys Baez out of the picture, the club will just focus on minor league invites and doesn’t plan on making any major acquisitions. However, there is still an outside shot the Mets trade for Barry Zito; they are currently monitoring the situation. Such a deal would be preceded by a trade of Kris Benson. Zito is certainly someone the Mets will revisit during the season if nothing is worked out this winter.
According to my source, the Mets feel "very good" about their starting pitching depth. Personally, as an unbiased observer, the rotation is not impressive at all. Anyway, here’s the starting pitcher rankings from their depth chart:
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
Kris Benson
Steve Trachsel
Victor Zambrano
Aaron Heilman
Brian Bannister
Alay Soler
Mike Pelfrey (possible September call-up)
Basically you’re hoping Pedro holds up in his age 34 season and following that with a bunch of #3’s or worse. Do you really want Benson starting Game 3 of a playoff series?
More Jeff Weaver
I was wondering whether the Cardinals could fit Jeff Weaver into their payroll if they moved some parts around, and called upon Viva El Birdos to determine the answer. Lboros thoroughly dissected the issue yesterday. The verdict:
"So I guess my answer is: yes, there are knots the Cardinals could tie themselves into in order to fit Jeff Weaver into the payroll; but no, I don’t think they would be inclined to go that route."
Read the post and you’ll probably be inclined to agree.
In addition, I spoke to my Mets source today. He said the club is not interested in Weaver. Commenters in my Weaver post from the other day pointed out that with Mike Pelfrey on the fast track, there’s really no place for Weaver on the Mets.
Looks like the Orioles, Cubs, Astros, and Angels are the major players here. However, the Phillies could be in the mix given that Ryan Madson is no lock for the rotation. (This is why I love open comments – with enough smart people, all options get uncovered).
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Not Buying Baez
There’s about a dozen different trade scenarios floating around where reliever Danys Baez ends up with the Mets. In every one, the price is steep – it typically involves surrendering Aaron Heilman. I was curious as to whether Baez is worth all this hype. Let’s take a look.
Vital Stats
Danys Baez is still young; he’ll be entering his age 28 season in 2006. The Cuban righthander throws a high 90s heater. The D-Rays signed him as a free agent from the Indians through some sort of loophole, and he’ll make $4MM in 2006. For his career, Baez has a 3.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 431 innings.
2005 Season
I’m guessing that some GMs or fans think Baez turned a corner in 2005 due to his 2.86 ERA. I don’t think he did. He was about the same or worse in hits, home runs, walks, and strikeouts as he was in 2004, when he posted a 3.57 ERA. Plug Baez’s 2005 numbers into Bill James’s component ERA formula, and he probably should’ve had a 3.74 ERA this year, a touch better than the immortal John Wasdin.
Taking a look at Baseball Prospectus’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Baez was on par with Washington reliever Luis Ayala, and a bit worse than Pete Walker. Those two guys don’t throw hard, however, so they’re not high on anyone’s offseason shopping list.
The Save Factor
Even now, in 2006, relievers’ saves totals are being overvalued. Baez has saved 102 games in his career, and I think it’s inflating his value tremendously. It’s tough for GMs to ignore that gaudy saves total from ’05, 41 of them to be exact. Does saving 40 games make you an elite reliever?
Of course not. Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa, Danny Graves, Mike Williams, Jose Jimenez, and Antonio Alfonseca are all just marginal relievers who happen to have been granted the opportunity to finish games. Hell, Rocky Biddle saved 34 games in 2003. To repeat the mantra of Moneyball: plug any halfway decent reliever into the 9th inning, he’ll rack up saves and his value will be inflated. Billy Beane has this down to a science, breeding closers and shipping them off for better players almost annually.
Back to Baez
Baez is tough to hit. He does a reasonable job keeping home runs off the board. He walks a lot of guys. His strikeout rate is declining and may slip below league average in 2006. He’ll be making around $6MM in 2007 and beyond. He’s just not worth an Aaron Heilman, a Jae Seo, or any solid young pitcher.
Buzz Around The Game
Let’s take a look at what some other sources are reporting today on the rumor front.
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post mentions that Marquis Grissom’s agent said he will sign with the Cubs. When you look at Grissom’s 2005, there’s not much to like. He doesn’t get on base and he’s pushing 40. On the flip side, Grissom mashed lefties to the tune of .315/.356/.577 in 2004 and he’d make a great platoon partner for Jacque Jones.
UPDATE: You probably assumed this, but I’ve verified with a reliable source that the Grissom deal is for one year and will be incentive-based. Nothing unexpected, but worth a mention.
The Mets are apparently finalizing a deal for Danys Baez where they’d give up either Jae Seo or Aaron Heilman plus prospects. In my opinion, this trade is going to weaken the Mets in 2006. I’ve projected Baez to post an ERA near 4. Click here to read MetsBlog’s take.
From my inbox today: "You would be crediable if your rumors actually came true." Why do some people spend so much time writing long, incoherent emails about how they don’t like my site? Just stop reading it if you don’t like it.
Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio Chicago has reported that the Cubs are in discussions for Barry Zito. Wouldn’t be bad to see a durable pitcher on the North Side of Chicago to complement Zambrano.
As you’ve certainly read, Miguel Tejada still wants out. More on details on teams in play later today.
New Manny Scenario Discussed?
A source close to the Mets organization has supplied me with a possible trade scenario that is being discussed. It’s complicated, but I thought I’d put it out there.
Mets trade: Aaron Heilman, Cliff Floyd, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister
Mets get: Manny Ramirez
TB trades: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright
TB receives: Aaron Heilman, Victor Diaz, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox trade: Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox receive: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright, Cliff Floyd, Brian Bannister
Wow. I’m not sure if this is any more plausible than the other complicated possibilities floating around, but this is a solid source. Let’s see if it passes the reality test.
The Mets give up Heilman, Floyd, Diaz, and Bannister for Manny. That’s a huge bounty, but the only real gem there is Heilman. Plus, Manny is still a superstar. Diaz is a good outfield prospect, and Bannister is a B level starter with a low ceiling. Floyd is a year away from free agency and expendable if Manny is acquired. The Mets could always try to get Manny and keep Floyd, but Floyd hasn’t played RF since 2002. I would say this portion is not too far-fetched.
How about Tampa Bay’s side of things? First off, my guess is that upper management would be reluctant to package Lugo and Gathright together. As with the Huff/Baez rumors, why not just trade them separately and maximize the return? The demand is certainly there. Lugo is a hot commodity right now, and the Rays have been asking for a lot of Gathright (Scott Olsen?). Arroyo would make a great #2 for TB; I’ve projected him to lead the Red Sox in wins in 2006. The team doesn’t have a need for Diaz in a stacked outfield. Then again, he’d be a decent fit at first base. They’d probably love to have Heilman in the rotation or closing games. Overall, I’d label this part of the trade as somewhat questionable.
The Red Sox are basically getting three quality Major Leaguers in return for a superstar and a promising young starter. Given Floyd’s injury record and impending free agency, I can see his inclusion. Gathright hasn’t proven anything at the Major League level yet; only Lugo is a known quantity, and he’s also got free agency looming. So if you look at it that way, things seem fair for the Red Sox. The Mets might even have to throw in some cash to make this work for the Sox.
Wild Rumor From Gotham Baseball
Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has heard a massive trade rumor from "multiple independent baseball sources." Of course, it’s subject to change, isn’t close, and all the usual disclaimers. Here’s the Cliff Notes version of it:
"Mets would send Heilman and Matsui (and $5 million) to Tampa Bay for Lugo. Then New York would send Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister and Victor Diaz to Baltimore for Tejada, and then send Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez."
Let’s stop right there. My opinion on each step of this possible deal:
Aaron Heilman for Julio Lugo sounds like fair value to me. Gotham’s sources have the Mets eating $5MM of the $8MM owed to Kaz Matsui in 2006. That part gels with the information I’ve heard from my Mets source that New York would have to pay at least half of Matsui’s salary to unload him. I’m not sure how the Devil Rays would structure their infield, with Jorge Cantu entrenched at second base and B.J. Upton ready to take over at short. I had thought the D-Rays would hold out for more than this for Lugo – a good reliever plus someone else’s baggage. I still feel that they’ll want more.
So then the Orioles are giving up their superstar shortstop, possibly one of the five best players in baseball, for Julio Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister, and Victor Diaz. This is where the plausibility of the rumor breaks down for me. The Orioles have given every indication that they need a star player back for Tejada – they’re not even sold on Mark Prior. Lugo’s a good player for $5MM, but he hits free agency after that. Benson is a fourth starter who figures to post an ERA around 4 over the next two seasons while being paid more than $15MM. That doesn’t add much value for the O’s. Bannister is a smart young pitcher with a good minor league track record, but Baseball America has said he’s "not overpowering" and "doesn’t have a high ceiling." Diaz is still a valuable prospect, but could easily turn out to be a career reserve.
To sum it up, the Orioles are giving up Tejada to get a pretty good SS in his contract year, an overpaid fourth starter, a B-level pitching prospect, and a solid outfield prospect. That’s quantity over quality, and I don’t see it happening.
To finish it off, the Mets ship Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny, effectively giving up nothing impressive for the superstar outfielder, considering the players sent to Baltimore. Not entirely sold on that step, and I’d heard the Orioles did not want Tejada to play for a division rival.
UPDATE: Just asked my Mets source whether the above scenario could happen. He said there’s no way: "Orioles get screwed, the Red Sox get screwed, and the Mets have everything go their way."
Healey’s article also mentions these comments from a baseball official:
"If Barry Zito doesn’t get dealt before opening day, the A’s are screwed. No one is willing to pay Beane’s price after what the Braves paid for Hudson [Namely, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas]."
I don’t agree with the baseball official, for what it’s worth. The A’s hold all the cards with Zito. They have absolutely no need to unload him, and will boast a deep rotation if they keep Zito until July. I find it odd that the official cites the Hudson trade as hurting Beane’s ability to make major trades. The Tim Hudson deal is one where the Braves can be labeled a clear winner. The highly touted Meyer quickly got hurt and is a question mark, Cruz wasn’t deemed Major League ready by Oakland, and Charles Thomas has completely crapped out. Perhaps the official meant to refer to the Mark Mulder trade.