Nats Want Milledge for Livan
I find it almost comical that Jim Bowden would demand Lastings Milledge in a trade for Livan Hernandez. I know he wants to save his job with the next Scott Kazmir deal, but c’mon now. The Mets aren’t that desperate, are they?
Hernandez has an ERA over 6 and is only 31 years old in theory. He makes $8MM this year and $7MM the next. Whether or not Milledge is worthy of all the hype, the Mets could do a lot better. I still think Livan will come around and could help the Mets, but at that price they need look at internal candidates instead.
Milledge is at .284/.440/.447 in Triple A at age 21. The 17% walk rate is an excellent development, and you have to figure the 20 HR power will come with time.
The Nationals do need to find a way to stock up one of baseball’s worst farm systems. Hernandez, Jose Guillen, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, and Brian Schneider should keep the hot stove boiling all summer.
Mets Rotation Concerns
Reader Brian M. recently asked:
"Where do the Mets turn now that Victor Zambrano is out for the year? Bannister will be back in week or so, but with Maine also being placed on the DL, and Lima getting slammed today, the Mets need one more arm. Do they turn to Heilman (the obvious choice, but Mets brass are too stubborn to take him out of the ‘pen)? Time to search free agency? Perhaps time to trade Victor Diaz? What should they do, and what do you think they will do?"
Good question, Brian. The Mets currently have a rotation of Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Steve Trachsel, and Brian Bannister. Bannister is eligible to come off the DL on May 12th, but his actual return date is uncertain. John Maine can return on May 18th, which is also no lock.
Today marked the next round of Lima Time, and it wasn’t pretty. He’ll probably remain in the rotation anyway until Bannister gets back. For the next few weeks, I expect the Mets to pair Lima with their last remaining option from the Norfolk rotation: Jeremi Gonzalez. Gonzalez will probably get two or three starts this month for the Mets; he has a 3.03 ERA through six Triple A starts this year. Jason Scobie is a longshot; he’s performing poorly so far and is more of a minor league lifer.
Yusaku Iriki, never a great option, will be out until June with a steroid suspension. With just two Double A starts under his belt, promoting Mike Pelfrey right now could be a tad risky for one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Jeremi Gonzalez is a fine fifth starter for the rest of May, and I’m not sure he’ll do much worse than Pelfrey would. With Billy Wagner‘s finger in doubt, the bullpen cannot afford to lose Aaron Heilman.
Come June and beyond, a fifth starter of Gonzalez/Lima/Maine won’t cut it. Bannister profiles as a fifth starter himself, and Trachsel something of a fourth. The Mets are going to be looking for a solid #3 type. Both Pelfrey and Alay Soler have the goods, but are they ready for The Show?
Soler is a 26 year-old Cuban defector who breezed through Single A and has had one good start at Double A so far. Baseball America says he has two plus pitches and big-game experience, so he may be closer than some people realize. Back in 2003, the Yankees gave Jose Contreras just six starts in the minors before promoting him. Contreras went 7-2 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for the big club that year, posting the highest strikeout rate of his career. Soler could provide a similar shot in the arm in mid-June, and I’d probably promote him over Pelfrey.
Omar Minaya will be prowling the trade market regardless. If the Cubs are out of it by July, Greg Maddux might make a good fit. Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito will also have the rumor mill churning in a few months. If Minaya decides to bring in more of a #4 type, he can make a play for Joel Pineiro or Gil Meche from Seattle, maybe Kip Wells from the Pirates if he’s healthy.
Here’s the problem: Lastings Milledge is tearing up Triple A, and he is the one trading chip the Mets have left that can bring a #2-3 starter. I do not expect the Mets to trade him. Young outfield prospect Carlos Gomez has been overmatched at Double A so far, and Victor Diaz needs to start hitting to get his stock up. Double A first baseman Brett Harper could be part of a package, as could Triple A 2B Jeff Keppinger. 17 year-old outfielder Fernando Martinez would be a nice prize for a team like the Pirates or Mariners and is the best prospect the Mets can offer not named Milledge.
To review: Omar’s options are A)Soler/Pelfrey, B)trade Milledge for a true #2-3, or C)get a second-tier guy for Diaz and a few other mid-level prospects.
If it were up to me? I’d try everything under the sun to get Schmidt from Brian Sabean without including Milledge, starting now. In the meantime I would promote Soler in June and give him a good 5-7 starts. If Soler does well, I’d stand pat at the deadline knowing that I could still use Pelfrey if necessary. If Soler bombed, I would offer Fernando Martinez and/or Victor Diaz to get the best available starter. This is what I expect Minaya to do as well, perhaps settling for a Diaz/Pineiro swap when nothing reasonable comes along.
One last aggressive option up for debate: would Omar give up Milledge to acquire Dontrelle Willis at the deadline?
Cubs Shopping Maddux?
A good one from the rumor mill over at Gotham Baseball. Unfortunately their page is not working right now so here’s a link to MetsBlog’s take on Gotham’s report. According to Gotham, Greg Maddux is being shopped. Interested parties: Mets, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Cardinals.
The Cubs would essentially be reducing their rotation to "Carlos Zambrano and pray for a tornado," but Maddux is an impending free agent. My opinion from a couple of weeks ago: he’s the same old Mad Dog, just with a well-timed hot streak. Still, dealing him now would be a very early white flag for a Cubs team with a $94MM payroll. Doesn’t seem to compute. And the obligatory intradivision thing must be cited for the Brewers and Cards. I am surprised no West Coast teams have been mentioned.
Miscellaneous Rumors
There are a few trade-related nuggets in the newspapers today, but I don’t expect anything major to go down until June.
The Reds are trying to find a taker for Tony Womack, who has thankfully been pushed out of their infield and demoted. That is what we call a million dollar mistake. I guess Brandon Phillips makes up for it, at least until his bat runs cold.
Jay Payton and his agent are being vocal about finding him his 500 ABs with another team if necessary. The best fit I can find is the Cardinals.
The Yanks plan on declining Mike Mussina‘s option and re-signing him to a more reasonable deal. The decline is a no-brainer at $17MM, but I’m just remembering what happened with Jon Lieber. New York had some goodwill there after paying Lieber to rehab, but he still jumped ship after seeing the market. This is a different situation given Mussina’s tenure, and he has said he wants to stay put. I’m just saying, it’s not a 100% lock.
Howie Kendrick got the call, but it took an injury, and not a trade, of Maicer Izturis. My guess is that Izturis will spend at least a month on the shelf and that Kendrick will stick for the rest of the season. If Kendrick can hit as expected between pinch-hitting, DHing, and spot starting at 2B/3B, there will be plenty of interest for Adam Kennedy in the coming months. Kennedy is a 3-4 win guy who could really help the Mets or Cardinals for half a season.
Marlins Made Crazy Offer To Mets
According to Jon Heyman, the Fish offered Dontrelle Willis to the Mets for David Wright this spring. Sounds like something out of a fantasy league.
Baseball Prospectus projects Wright to be with about ten more wins than Willis over the next five seasons. I believe Heyman here. His report definitely calls Jeffrey Loria’s denials into question. Sounds like the Fish are shooting for the moon with Willis, but he really does seem to be available.
What do you think of a Willis for Chase Utley deal? Who wins, and why wouldn’t it work?
Gotham Baseball’s Zito Rumor
Gotham Baseball’s Executive Editor, Mark Healey, had some informed speculation on Monday about a possible trade of Barry Zito to the Mets for Lastings Milledge and Brian Bannister. I figured I’d pass it along, as these guys seem to have some good front office type sources.
Here are some highlights quoted from Healey from the thread:
"Call me nuts…but I still think something is happening here and will in the next couple of days…
Mike and I talk to scouts, front office people every week, sometimes daily….mostly to check on things, etc…
Before and after our respective trips to ST…we both did pre-work and post-work…
When people start getting tight-lipped, and strange things like Milledge and Bannister staying in Major League camp longer than they were supposed to be — my antenna goes up.
However, be that as it may, this thread was specualtion…if I had any corroboration, it’d be in the Rumor Mill.
[posted today] About five minutes after I posted the above I got a phone call from my West Coast guy saying that My speculation "might not be far off the mark" but wouldn’t elaborate…saying to check on what Oakland GM Billy Beane has been up to…
Hmmm…seems Billy traded the immortal Juan Cruz to the D’Backs for Brad Halsey (a 25 year old left-hander)…
Another starter, one less reliever for the Oaks?
The plot thickens…"
Graffanino to Mets?
Did you know that Baseball America scouts and ranks 12 year-olds? That’s kind of weird. I learned this after reading that Austin Jackson, a Yankees outfield prospect, ranked at the top of his age group when he was 12. They should’ve been scouting my age 11 season. I was the leadoff hitter for the Foxes and posted an OBP over .500. I could lay a mean drag bunt despite well below-average speed to first base. The third baseman knew it was coming but still couldn’t throw me out. But even then, my makeup was in question with all the rampant womanizing. My vices got the best of me and I was out of baseball by age 15.
On to the trade rumor. A source has given me some more info on the Mets’ second base situation.
The Alfonso Soriano rumors have died down now that he’s decided to give left field a try. Good for him. The Mets see Jeff Keppinger as more of a utility man, and they are a little wary of throwing Anderson Hernandez to the wolves without a little more seasoning in the minors. Kaz Matsui‘s injury might keep him out more than a few weeks, perhaps as long as two months. Enter Tony Graffanino, a Minaya favorite.
If Boston’s demands drop a bit, the teams might be able to strike a deal. The Mets might be willing to part with one of the following three pitchers. The following info is from Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook. Thought you might like a little background.
Matt Lindstrom is a 26 year-old right-handed reliever with "the most explosive arm in the system." His heater is the best among Mets’ minor leaguers, occasionally touching 100mph. How come this dude is still in Double A then? He’s two years behind because of a Mormon mission. The problems: his fastball is straight, he doesn’t have a secondary pitch, and he has some mechanical issues. He didn’t have a great 2005 season and is now ranked as the 26th best Mets prospect after a #10 ranking the year before.
Henry Owens is ranked 29th in the system and was a Triple A Rule 5 pick. The former catcher has good heat but questionable breaking stuff…he’s a reliever entering Double A and will turn 27 soon. He and Lindstrom are the two best relievers in the Mets’ system according to BA.
Jason Scobie led the Mets’ minor leagues with 15 wins in 2005. He’s entering his age 28 season, and seems to have a handle on Triple A despite a strikeout rate barely above 5 K.9. He’s 8th among starters on the Mets’ minor league depth chart, so he’s not exactly a hot commodity.
Latest Mets/Soriano Rumor
A source of mine reports some info concerning the Mets’ interest in Alfonso Soriano:
The Mets do want Soriano, but they’ll only make a deal if the Nats will accept Kaz Matsui. The Nats would use Matsui at shortstop and would also receive Victor Diaz.
Matsui will be out until mid-April with a sprained knee ligament. He last played shortstop in 2004, appearing in 110 games there.
This morning, Soriano plans to announce whether he’s willing to play left field for the Nationals. The fact that he’s even considering it leads me to believe that he will play out there. Soriano refused to play LF on Monday and would likely be placed on the disqualified list if he refuses again. He’d lose his salary and right to become a free agent after 2006 in that case. I’m pretty sure his agent is going to advise that he gives in. Still, he may still be a trade candidate if he’s enormously unhappy with the Nationals.
Another note from the MLB.com article: it looks like Jon Daniels pulled one over on Jim Bowden.
"Texas denied Washington permission to talk to Soriano about a switch from second base to left field until the players took their physicals and the trade was official."
Diaz may start the season in Triple A, as Xavier Nady is the heavy favorite for right field for the Mets.
Jason Marquis for Victor Diaz?
Just got word from my main Mets source with all sorts of good info.
With Pedro’s status a question mark at this point, Omar Minaya would like to add a proven veteran starting pitcher to the middle of the rotation. The Mets first preference is Jason Marquis (a New York native, for what it’s worth). They’ve offered a package beginning with Victor Diaz to entice Walt Jocketty. Diaz would probably be an upgrade over the Cards’ current left field options. The Mets aren’t thrilled with Diaz’s defense and would be content to try Xavier Nady in right field.
Other options include two Boston starters. The Mets would love to bring Matt Clement back to the NL, but they don’t want to give up a lot to get him and are wary of his salary. Bronson Arroyo‘s name has also come up.
The White Sox could also be a factor if they decide to part with Jose Contreras.
Keep an eye this spring on the right field battle, Pedro’s toe, and the 4th-5th starter spots in the rotation. A spring trade is a good possibility.
The Soriano thing has pretty much been debunked; the Mets will see where Kaz Matsui takes them and then try Anderson Hernandez as needed.
Unfounded Soriano Mets Rumor
Alright, here’s a new one. I can’t really verify the source, but it still seems ripe for discussion.
Word is that the Mets could send Xavier Nady, John Maine, and Jeff Keppinger to the Nationals for Alfonso Soriano, Bill Bray, and Jason Bergmann. Let’s discuss.
Could the Mets do without Nady? Absolutely. Wright doesn’t need much time off, and Franco can spell Delgado. I’m of the opinion that Victor Diaz does not need a platoon partner in right field. Nady would be more useful for Washington. He could handle right field for three months while Jose Guillen is out, and Matt LeCroy could spend more time backing up Brian Schneider than Nick Johnson. Plus, Nady could take over first base in 2007 if Johnson leaves via free agency.
I’m not sure that John Maine figures into the Mets’ rotation plans. He didn’t make their depth chart, which goes eight-deep on starting pitchers. Maine already has Triple A experience and could probably manage a mid-4 ERA pitching half his games in RFK. That’d be a more adequate replacement for Brian Lawrence than some sort of Drese/Rauch experiment.
Jeff Keppinger has most certainly been passed by Anderson Hernandez on the Mets’ 2B depth chart, and so the Mets wouldn’t really need him even if they let Soriano walk after 2006. Keppinger is probably best served as a utility man anyway, and he’d get a decent opportunity backing up Jose Vidro. Brendan Harris might already fill this role for the Nats, but he’s no sure thing.
To recap: the Nationals would receive a borderline backup in Nady, a back-rotation starter in Maine, and a utility infielder in Keppinger. It’s quantity over quality, but Bowden is between a rock and a hard place here with Soriano.
Speaking of which, Soriano would fit nicely into the Latino core Omar Minaya is building. I don’t know whether the Mets would try to keep him long-term, but even a player with his flaws is a good pickup for the cost outlined here.
College product Bill Bray isn’t too far off from being a Major League setup man. I’m not so sure Bowden would need to give him up in this deal. It seems to tip the scales too far towards the Mets.
Likewise with Bergmann, who had a nice year last year and figured to slot into the Nats’ big league bullpen. That’s two valuable relievers going to New York, and it seems like too much.
Admittedly the Nationals are giving up a lot of value for some questionable prospects. On the other hand, Bowden’s trade for Soriano is Exhibit A that he is capable of making trades that do not favor the his team at all.