Unfounded Soriano Mets Rumor
Alright, here’s a new one. I can’t really verify the source, but it still seems ripe for discussion.
Word is that the Mets could send Xavier Nady, John Maine, and Jeff Keppinger to the Nationals for Alfonso Soriano, Bill Bray, and Jason Bergmann. Let’s discuss.
Could the Mets do without Nady? Absolutely. Wright doesn’t need much time off, and Franco can spell Delgado. I’m of the opinion that Victor Diaz does not need a platoon partner in right field. Nady would be more useful for Washington. He could handle right field for three months while Jose Guillen is out, and Matt LeCroy could spend more time backing up Brian Schneider than Nick Johnson. Plus, Nady could take over first base in 2007 if Johnson leaves via free agency.
I’m not sure that John Maine figures into the Mets’ rotation plans. He didn’t make their depth chart, which goes eight-deep on starting pitchers. Maine already has Triple A experience and could probably manage a mid-4 ERA pitching half his games in RFK. That’d be a more adequate replacement for Brian Lawrence than some sort of Drese/Rauch experiment.
Jeff Keppinger has most certainly been passed by Anderson Hernandez on the Mets’ 2B depth chart, and so the Mets wouldn’t really need him even if they let Soriano walk after 2006. Keppinger is probably best served as a utility man anyway, and he’d get a decent opportunity backing up Jose Vidro. Brendan Harris might already fill this role for the Nats, but he’s no sure thing.
To recap: the Nationals would receive a borderline backup in Nady, a back-rotation starter in Maine, and a utility infielder in Keppinger. It’s quantity over quality, but Bowden is between a rock and a hard place here with Soriano.
Speaking of which, Soriano would fit nicely into the Latino core Omar Minaya is building. I don’t know whether the Mets would try to keep him long-term, but even a player with his flaws is a good pickup for the cost outlined here.
College product Bill Bray isn’t too far off from being a Major League setup man. I’m not so sure Bowden would need to give him up in this deal. It seems to tip the scales too far towards the Mets.
Likewise with Bergmann, who had a nice year last year and figured to slot into the Nats’ big league bullpen. That’s two valuable relievers going to New York, and it seems like too much.
Admittedly the Nationals are giving up a lot of value for some questionable prospects. On the other hand, Bowden’s trade for Soriano is Exhibit A that he is capable of making trades that do not favor the his team at all.
Choices Narrowing For Weaver
Back on January 12th, we were able to reason our way towards determining six possible suitors for Jeff Weaver. Here was the list:
"In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels."
Since then, the Orioles traded for Kris Benson and the Cubs signed a much cheaper option in Wade Miller. The remaining four can be re-ranked as Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Astros. You can almost cross Houston off the list; there hasn’t been talk of them pursuing Weaver as Jose Contreras remains high on their wish list.
The Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels may offer Weaver a one year contract with an option for 2007. It’d be wise for the Angels to lock in the innings eater after losing Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd, who combined for 381 innings in 2005.
I’d put the Angels chances of signing Weaver at 75%. The Mets really aren’t looking to take on Weaver; he may not perform under the spotlight again and isn’t significantly better than Benson (he’s maybe about one win better). The Cards would be mad to add Weaver to a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, and Sidney Ponson/Anthony Reyes. The club is wavering on starting Reyes, and he’s already better than Weaver. Weaver is barely an improvement over Marquis, so dealing him and signing Weaver would be a curious decision. I suppose it could happen if the right outfield bat came along in return for Marquis though.
Mets Interested In Wells?
Spoke with my Mets guy this morning. He had plenty of info to pass along.
First, he said that any recent rumors going around are "bogus." Plenty of other websites have added to that sentiment.
He also mentioned that Minaya wants to add a starter. That’s fairly well known, but he also said that the Mets may try to make a move on David Wells if nothing better comes along before spring training. It’s the first I’d heard of that.
He said the Mets are convinced that Anderson Hernandez is the answer at second base for 2006, and that Jeff Keppinger could be moved for pitching if he has a good spring. No doubt the Mets would love to dump Kaz Matsui if someone would take even half his salary.
Latest Red Sox Rumor – Clement, Vidro, Milledge
Several emailers have alerted me to a post made over at Sons of Sam Horn late last night. A respected poster lays out this scenario:
Red Sox trade Matt Clement and Alex Cora
Nationals trade Jose Vidro and Jay Bergmann
Mets trade Lastings Milledge and Xavier Nady (with some chance of Victor Diaz instead of Milledge)
Red Sox receive Milledge and Nady
Nationals receive Clement and Cora plus cash if Clement pitches over 150 innings
Mets receive Vidro and Bergmann plus a PTNBL from either Nats or Sox depending on Vidro’s health. (Livan Hernandez could end up with the Mets as well)
I paraphrased a few things but this is all from the post. I haven’t heard anything about these players lately, but I thought the rumor would make for interesting discussion. My thoughts:
From the Red Sox point of view, it’s either a steal or a salary dump. It’d be a steal if Milledge were indeed the centerpiece. However, there are some who believe Milledge is not even a top 100 prospect. Don’t gasp, Mets fans – David Luciani knows what he’s talking about and still respects Milledge.
If the Red Sox are acquiring Diaz and Nady for Clement, I can’t see a big improvement to their club for 2006. It would have to be motivated by the $19MM owed to Clement over the next two seasons, but the Red Sox aren’t having budget problems so it doesn’t make a lot of sense. The issue of whether the Sox have starting pitching depth from which to deal has been debated endlessly; it depends on how you evaluate their young guys.
The Nationals wouldn’t be surrendering much to get Clement. I’ve been told Vidro’s health is still questionable, and he makes $23MM over the next three seasons. The team would love to get out from under that contract. 24 year-old Bergmann looks like a decent enough reliever, but not a top tier prospect. The Nationals would definitely have to bump someone out of the rotation to give Clement a spot. They are currently six deep with Tony Armas, Ryan Drese, Livan Hernandez, Brian Lawrence, Ramon Ortiz, and John Patterson.
The deal makes the least amount of sense for the Mets. It’s been stated repeatedly that the team wants to hold onto Milledge, and that is thought to be the only reason they haven’t traded for Barry Zito. So the addition of Vidro and his albatross contract doesn’t equate here. Add Livan Hernandez and you might have something, but the 30 year-old may not be ace material anymore after posting a 1.43 WHIP in 2005.
Alfonso Soriano Trade Possibilities
Ken Rosenthal’s latest article mentions that a trade of Alfonso Soriano could happen, but Nationals are more likely to offer Soriano a long-term deal to convince him to become an outfielder. I don’t doubt Rosenthal, but let’s take a look at some possible suitors for the second baseman. I’ll assume that a trade signifies no position change.
First off, let’s narrow the field by looking at which teams lack an established 2B.
Blue Jays – Looks like Aaron Hill is the man at second base for 2006, and he’s a fairly solid hitter already. Plus, Soriano probably isn’t Ricciardi’s type of player.
Mariners – Jose Lopez will get the nod entering this season, and he slugged .505 during a couple of stints at Triple A. Giving him a full-time shot makes way more sense than trading for Soriano.
Marlins – Obviously the Fish aren’t dealing for Sori.
Mets – The Mets have made all sorts of splashes this winter, and adding a 2B isn’t top priority. They’d like to cut their losses with Matsui, but Jeff Keppinger and Anderson Hernandez are viable in-house candidates.
Cubs – The Cubs have a three-headed monster at second base, and Soriano probably doesn’t fit into the budget at $12MM+ over several years. The Cubs have a tradition of free swinging, and I could see Hendry trying this for 2006 if A)The Nationals win their arbitration case and/or eat some salary and B)the price is low.
Cardinals – St. Louis seems content with a battle between Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles for the 2B job. Plus, Soriano doesn’t seem like the typical St. Louis team player.
Padres – They’re going to let Mark Bellhorn, Eric Young, and Josh Barfield have a crack at 2B. Plus, I can’t see how Soriano would fit into the budget.
Of course, the Nationals already had an established 2B when they traded for Soriano, so maybe this isn’t the best guide. Rosenthal’s suggestion that Soriano will stay put is entirely logical once you break down the potential trade partners. If a deal was struck, it’d mostly be a salary dump and I think the only teams with mild interest would be the Cubs and Mets. Just my opinion.
Benson Dealt To Orioles; Zito Implications?
Many of you have already noticed by now that Newsday is reporting that the Mets traded Kris Benson to the Orioles for Jorge Julio and John Maine. A tip of the cap to Orioles Hangout; I’m pretty sure they confirmation first.
The question on most people’s minds is this: is the Benson swap the initial movement indicating a trade of Barry Zito to the Mets? If you recall, my Mets source indicated yesterday that Benson would be traded to Baltimore to acquire a prospect to Billy Beane’s liking. I’ve got word out to a couple of sources to see if anything has changed. In the meantime, let’s see what we can deduce.
First off, would the A’s have use for John Maine? The 24 year-old righty starter was ranked 6th in the Orioles’ organization by Baseball America entering the 2005 season. According to BA back then, Maine needed to refine his command and had a ceiling as a #3 starter. They also mentioned that he was "probably a #4 or 5 guy on a first-division club." Maine pitched kind of like a #4 starter in 128 innings at Triple A Ottawa in ’05. He posted a 4.56 ERA with improved control while maintaining a solid K rate.
I haven’t projected Maine myself yet, but ZiPS thought he’d throw 153 innings of 4.41 ball in his first extended trial with the Orioles. I think that’s great value for the price. For basis of comparison, Maine’s 2005 doesn’t look terribly different from Danny Haren‘s 2004. Haren was certainly better, but it’s a fair comparison. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus lists these comparables for Maine: Joel Pineiro (2002), A.J. Burnett (2001), Juan Marichal (1961), Bob Gibson (1960), and strangely, Jorge Julio (2003). I know the A’s already have a stable of starters, but Maine probably needs a little more time and a team can never have too much starting pitching depth.
I would speculate that the Mets would hang onto Jorge Julio to serve as Aaron Heilman‘s replacement. While most analysis today indicates that the Benson trade simply means Heilman starts for the Mets, I am skeptical. According to MetsBlog earlier this month:
"The problem is that the only person who seems to see Heilman as a starter is Heilman. Nearly all scouts and experts that I talked with all explained the same thing: Heilman’s repertoire is too hittable during his second time through a lineup."
Should Minaya package up Victor Diaz with someone to acquire a top flight prospect suitable to the A’s, I could really see this Zito deal coming to fruition.
New Possible Zito Scenario
Just got a note from my Mets source on a possible Barry Zito trade scenario. Here’s how this could play out:
The Orioles still have some interest in Kris Benson; VP Jim Duquette likes him. Benson would be dealt to the O’s for young players of Billy Beane’s choice.
Victor Diaz would be shipped off by the Mets as well, but again for prospects coveted by Oakland. The A’s don’t have room for Diaz given their glut of 1B/DH/OF types. The prospects from both deals would then be packaged with Aaron Heilman and the Mets would receive Zito.
The Mets would likely sign Jeff DaVanon to platoon in right field with Xavier Nady to complement this trade. The switch-hitting DaVanon didn’t do much with righties this year, but posted an .824 OPS against them in 2004. Nady has a career line of .323/.400/.452 in 124 at-bats versus southpaws. So keep an eye out for a DaVanon signing and Benson trade, because that could spell a Zito deal.
Latest Mets Rumblings
I spoke with my Mets source recently, and here’s what I came away with.
With Danys Baez out of the picture, the club will just focus on minor league invites and doesn’t plan on making any major acquisitions. However, there is still an outside shot the Mets trade for Barry Zito; they are currently monitoring the situation. Such a deal would be preceded by a trade of Kris Benson. Zito is certainly someone the Mets will revisit during the season if nothing is worked out this winter.
According to my source, the Mets feel "very good" about their starting pitching depth. Personally, as an unbiased observer, the rotation is not impressive at all. Anyway, here’s the starting pitcher rankings from their depth chart:
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
Kris Benson
Steve Trachsel
Victor Zambrano
Aaron Heilman
Brian Bannister
Alay Soler
Mike Pelfrey (possible September call-up)
Basically you’re hoping Pedro holds up in his age 34 season and following that with a bunch of #3’s or worse. Do you really want Benson starting Game 3 of a playoff series?
More Jeff Weaver
I was wondering whether the Cardinals could fit Jeff Weaver into their payroll if they moved some parts around, and called upon Viva El Birdos to determine the answer. Lboros thoroughly dissected the issue yesterday. The verdict:
"So I guess my answer is: yes, there are knots the Cardinals could tie themselves into in order to fit Jeff Weaver into the payroll; but no, I don’t think they would be inclined to go that route."
Read the post and you’ll probably be inclined to agree.
In addition, I spoke to my Mets source today. He said the club is not interested in Weaver. Commenters in my Weaver post from the other day pointed out that with Mike Pelfrey on the fast track, there’s really no place for Weaver on the Mets.
Looks like the Orioles, Cubs, Astros, and Angels are the major players here. However, the Phillies could be in the mix given that Ryan Madson is no lock for the rotation. (This is why I love open comments – with enough smart people, all options get uncovered).
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.