Not Buying Baez
There’s about a dozen different trade scenarios floating around where reliever Danys Baez ends up with the Mets. In every one, the price is steep – it typically involves surrendering Aaron Heilman. I was curious as to whether Baez is worth all this hype. Let’s take a look.
Vital Stats
Danys Baez is still young; he’ll be entering his age 28 season in 2006. The Cuban righthander throws a high 90s heater. The D-Rays signed him as a free agent from the Indians through some sort of loophole, and he’ll make $4MM in 2006. For his career, Baez has a 3.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 431 innings.
2005 Season
I’m guessing that some GMs or fans think Baez turned a corner in 2005 due to his 2.86 ERA. I don’t think he did. He was about the same or worse in hits, home runs, walks, and strikeouts as he was in 2004, when he posted a 3.57 ERA. Plug Baez’s 2005 numbers into Bill James’s component ERA formula, and he probably should’ve had a 3.74 ERA this year, a touch better than the immortal John Wasdin.
Taking a look at Baseball Prospectus’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Baez was on par with Washington reliever Luis Ayala, and a bit worse than Pete Walker. Those two guys don’t throw hard, however, so they’re not high on anyone’s offseason shopping list.
The Save Factor
Even now, in 2006, relievers’ saves totals are being overvalued. Baez has saved 102 games in his career, and I think it’s inflating his value tremendously. It’s tough for GMs to ignore that gaudy saves total from ’05, 41 of them to be exact. Does saving 40 games make you an elite reliever?
Of course not. Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa, Danny Graves, Mike Williams, Jose Jimenez, and Antonio Alfonseca are all just marginal relievers who happen to have been granted the opportunity to finish games. Hell, Rocky Biddle saved 34 games in 2003. To repeat the mantra of Moneyball: plug any halfway decent reliever into the 9th inning, he’ll rack up saves and his value will be inflated. Billy Beane has this down to a science, breeding closers and shipping them off for better players almost annually.
Back to Baez
Baez is tough to hit. He does a reasonable job keeping home runs off the board. He walks a lot of guys. His strikeout rate is declining and may slip below league average in 2006. He’ll be making around $6MM in 2007 and beyond. He’s just not worth an Aaron Heilman, a Jae Seo, or any solid young pitcher.
Buzz Around The Game
Let’s take a look at what some other sources are reporting today on the rumor front.
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post mentions that Marquis Grissom’s agent said he will sign with the Cubs. When you look at Grissom’s 2005, there’s not much to like. He doesn’t get on base and he’s pushing 40. On the flip side, Grissom mashed lefties to the tune of .315/.356/.577 in 2004 and he’d make a great platoon partner for Jacque Jones.
UPDATE: You probably assumed this, but I’ve verified with a reliable source that the Grissom deal is for one year and will be incentive-based. Nothing unexpected, but worth a mention.
The Mets are apparently finalizing a deal for Danys Baez where they’d give up either Jae Seo or Aaron Heilman plus prospects. In my opinion, this trade is going to weaken the Mets in 2006. I’ve projected Baez to post an ERA near 4. Click here to read MetsBlog’s take.
From my inbox today: "You would be crediable if your rumors actually came true." Why do some people spend so much time writing long, incoherent emails about how they don’t like my site? Just stop reading it if you don’t like it.
Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio Chicago has reported that the Cubs are in discussions for Barry Zito. Wouldn’t be bad to see a durable pitcher on the North Side of Chicago to complement Zambrano.
As you’ve certainly read, Miguel Tejada still wants out. More on details on teams in play later today.
New Manny Scenario Discussed?
A source close to the Mets organization has supplied me with a possible trade scenario that is being discussed. It’s complicated, but I thought I’d put it out there.
Mets trade: Aaron Heilman, Cliff Floyd, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister
Mets get: Manny Ramirez
TB trades: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright
TB receives: Aaron Heilman, Victor Diaz, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox trade: Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox receive: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright, Cliff Floyd, Brian Bannister
Wow. I’m not sure if this is any more plausible than the other complicated possibilities floating around, but this is a solid source. Let’s see if it passes the reality test.
The Mets give up Heilman, Floyd, Diaz, and Bannister for Manny. That’s a huge bounty, but the only real gem there is Heilman. Plus, Manny is still a superstar. Diaz is a good outfield prospect, and Bannister is a B level starter with a low ceiling. Floyd is a year away from free agency and expendable if Manny is acquired. The Mets could always try to get Manny and keep Floyd, but Floyd hasn’t played RF since 2002. I would say this portion is not too far-fetched.
How about Tampa Bay’s side of things? First off, my guess is that upper management would be reluctant to package Lugo and Gathright together. As with the Huff/Baez rumors, why not just trade them separately and maximize the return? The demand is certainly there. Lugo is a hot commodity right now, and the Rays have been asking for a lot of Gathright (Scott Olsen?). Arroyo would make a great #2 for TB; I’ve projected him to lead the Red Sox in wins in 2006. The team doesn’t have a need for Diaz in a stacked outfield. Then again, he’d be a decent fit at first base. They’d probably love to have Heilman in the rotation or closing games. Overall, I’d label this part of the trade as somewhat questionable.
The Red Sox are basically getting three quality Major Leaguers in return for a superstar and a promising young starter. Given Floyd’s injury record and impending free agency, I can see his inclusion. Gathright hasn’t proven anything at the Major League level yet; only Lugo is a known quantity, and he’s also got free agency looming. So if you look at it that way, things seem fair for the Red Sox. The Mets might even have to throw in some cash to make this work for the Sox.
Wild Rumor From Gotham Baseball
Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has heard a massive trade rumor from "multiple independent baseball sources." Of course, it’s subject to change, isn’t close, and all the usual disclaimers. Here’s the Cliff Notes version of it:
"Mets would send Heilman and Matsui (and $5 million) to Tampa Bay for Lugo. Then New York would send Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister and Victor Diaz to Baltimore for Tejada, and then send Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez."
Let’s stop right there. My opinion on each step of this possible deal:
Aaron Heilman for Julio Lugo sounds like fair value to me. Gotham’s sources have the Mets eating $5MM of the $8MM owed to Kaz Matsui in 2006. That part gels with the information I’ve heard from my Mets source that New York would have to pay at least half of Matsui’s salary to unload him. I’m not sure how the Devil Rays would structure their infield, with Jorge Cantu entrenched at second base and B.J. Upton ready to take over at short. I had thought the D-Rays would hold out for more than this for Lugo – a good reliever plus someone else’s baggage. I still feel that they’ll want more.
So then the Orioles are giving up their superstar shortstop, possibly one of the five best players in baseball, for Julio Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister, and Victor Diaz. This is where the plausibility of the rumor breaks down for me. The Orioles have given every indication that they need a star player back for Tejada – they’re not even sold on Mark Prior. Lugo’s a good player for $5MM, but he hits free agency after that. Benson is a fourth starter who figures to post an ERA around 4 over the next two seasons while being paid more than $15MM. That doesn’t add much value for the O’s. Bannister is a smart young pitcher with a good minor league track record, but Baseball America has said he’s "not overpowering" and "doesn’t have a high ceiling." Diaz is still a valuable prospect, but could easily turn out to be a career reserve.
To sum it up, the Orioles are giving up Tejada to get a pretty good SS in his contract year, an overpaid fourth starter, a B-level pitching prospect, and a solid outfield prospect. That’s quantity over quality, and I don’t see it happening.
To finish it off, the Mets ship Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny, effectively giving up nothing impressive for the superstar outfielder, considering the players sent to Baltimore. Not entirely sold on that step, and I’d heard the Orioles did not want Tejada to play for a division rival.
UPDATE: Just asked my Mets source whether the above scenario could happen. He said there’s no way: "Orioles get screwed, the Red Sox get screwed, and the Mets have everything go their way."
Healey’s article also mentions these comments from a baseball official:
"If Barry Zito doesn’t get dealt before opening day, the A’s are screwed. No one is willing to pay Beane’s price after what the Braves paid for Hudson [Namely, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas]."
I don’t agree with the baseball official, for what it’s worth. The A’s hold all the cards with Zito. They have absolutely no need to unload him, and will boast a deep rotation if they keep Zito until July. I find it odd that the official cites the Hudson trade as hurting Beane’s ability to make major trades. The Tim Hudson deal is one where the Braves can be labeled a clear winner. The highly touted Meyer quickly got hurt and is a question mark, Cruz wasn’t deemed Major League ready by Oakland, and Charles Thomas has completely crapped out. Perhaps the official meant to refer to the Mark Mulder trade.
Buzz Around The Game
Let’s see what we’ve got going on today in a potpourri-style format.
As predicted, Eric Byrnes was non-tendered last night. I can’t possibly think of a better way for the Cubs to turn the Jacque Jones signing into a positive. If you sum up Byrnes and Jones’ salaries, you’ll be getting solid stats from RF for the price. Assuming Dusty Baker understands what a platoon is and how all that works.
Of course, it’s probably one more roster spot than the Cubs wanted to use on this type of thing since they already have John Mabry. But Mabry can back up Aramis Ramirez, and the Cubs can carry one less pitcher and make it work. I put a word in to a Cubs source of mine, and he agreed that the idea makes sense (who wouldn’t agree) and mentioned that the Cubs have liked Byrnes in the past.
UPDATE: Just talked to a second Cubs source, and he echoed the sentiment held by many readers of the site: Hendry didn’t give Jones $16MM to platoon him. He’s a full-timer for the most part.
Kirby Arnold reports that the Mariners offered Gil Meche to the Cubs for Corey Patterson. At first, I said, "Sure, why not." But then I looked at Meche’s numbers, and I realized there’s no way he can help the ballclub. When a pitcher loses his ability to strike batters out, as Meche may have, he has to counter the increased hits he’s surrendering with good control. Or the ability to keep the ball in the park. Meche appears to have none of these traits, and would be a frustrating spot starter who would allow tons of baserunners. I might rather have Josh Fogg at this point. There’s got to be something slightly better out there for the Cubs.
Alfonso Soriano won’t move off second base for the Nationals and is pretty much raising a stink about being dealt to Washington. Let’s see here, are there any teams with GMs dumber than Jim Bowden who might make a trade for Sori? Dan O’Brien’s club doesn’t have a need for a 2B; Placido Polanco is firmly entrenched in Detroit…maybe Littlefield is interested?
Is Millwood really getting a five year deal from someone? Insane. Incredible timing to have your 2.86 ERA season. Best timing award for the NL: Todd Jones.
My Mets guy is saying the club is still talking to the Dodgers about Jeff Kent, but right now it’s a "pipe dream." Doesn’t seem like the two teams will agree on anything. The Mets still have some faith in Victor Zambrano (or maybe they’re just trying to save face), but Omar feels that after adding Julian Tavarez his bullpen will be pretty much set.
The Mariners seem desperate to get rid of Jeremy Reed after pushing hard to obtain him for Freddy Garcia. I guess they don’t understand that center fielders are hard to find and Reed will get better. After the masterstroke that was the Johjima signing, Bill Bavasi has taken a step backward with Jarrod Washburn.
Mets Renew Interest In Jeff Kent?
The Jeff Kent to the Mets rumor first surfaced in early December. Now it’s rearing its ugly head again, this time courtesy of Gotham Baseball. According to author Mark Healey, Anderson Hernandez would be involved and the deal could happen soon. I asked my Mets source for his take on the Kent possibility.
He told me the deal isn’t nearly as close as the article might imply. He said the Mets are willing to part with Anderson Hernandez, but the catch is that the Dodgers have to take Kaz Matsui too. No money would be exchanged. My source thinks this is simply a proposal the Mets put out there to get the ball rolling; Ned Colletti would never make the trade as described.
My source puts the ultimate chances of a deal at 50/50, and mentioned that ditching Matsui and adding one more 100 RBI bat at the same time would definitely be a feather in Omar’s cap. However, even as a cash-saving move, this doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Dodgers. I’ll keep you posted as further permutations leak out.
Mets Scoop: Julian Tavarez, Barry Zito
A little more Met goodness for you tonight.
Contrary to reports, the Mets are still willing to meet Julian Tavarez‘s demand of a four-year contract. However, the fourth year would be an option that vests based on Tavarez’s innings pitched in the first three seasons.
As for Barry Zito, the Mets won’t make a run for him until after the holidays. Plenty of clubs are still trying to make a splash, and the Mets won’t be caught in a bidding war for Zito’s services. Once things calm down, they’ll get re-engaged.
Mets Scoop: Tavarez, Zito, Benson, Baez
A slew of information coming from my Mets source today. Let’s see what we’ve got.
My source believes the Mets will give Julian Tavarez the four-year deal he’s looking for. The market explosion has necessitated this length, and Omar Minaya will go to great lengths to avoid a subpar bullpen like last year’s.
The Mets are the current frontrunners for Barry Zito, and Lastings Milledge is still a requirement. As reported earlier, the Mets plan to request a 72 hour contract extension window upon trading for Zito, but would make the trade with just a verbal agreement from the pitcher. Zito’s best years came under Rick Peterson’s guidance, so it’d be a good fit.
The Mets don’t have the upper hand in any possible Kris Benson trade, so teams are backing off and offering less value. The feeling is that Anna Benson’s media tirades are precluding small market teams from acquiring her husband. Anna has definitely decreased Kris’s value around baseball. She knows that her career will stall if they end up in a place like Kansas City, so she’ll do anything she can to stay in New York.
If the Mets can’t get fair value for Benson, Steve Trachsel and/or Victor Zambrano may be dealt for prospects. The Mets hope to acquire players that would appeal to the A’s as part of a Zito deal.
The Aaron Heilman for Danys Baez rumors that have been floating around are false.
Not surprisingly, there’s no market for Kaz Matsui, even at a 50% off discount. While they’d prefer Mark Grudzielanek, the Mets are OK with their depth at second base.
Javier Vazquez Trade Close?
With a Javier Vazquez trade supposedly close to complete, it’s been unusually hard to dig up information about the deal. Here’s the situation so far:
Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News addressed Vazquez today with just this blurb:
"Javier Vazquez, who has piqued the Mets’ interest, may be on the verge of getting shipped to the Windy City. A baseball insider suggested the White Sox are the most likely destination for the Diamondbacks pitcher, possibly leading to a trade involving Jon Garland (a free agent after the 2006 season) or Jose Contreras."
Ken Rosenthal is on the same page:
"The White Sox are making a ‘strong, under the radar’ bid to trade for Diamondbacks right-hander Javier Vazquez, according to a source with knowledge of the negotiations. The package of players that the Diamondbacks would receive is not known, though it could include a major-league starting pitcher — perhaps right-hander Jon Garland or Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez — and an outfield prospect such as Chris Young."
The Mets have long been mentioned as another suitor for Vazquez, and the Nationals are a dark horse.
I hate to be a wet blanket, but it doesn’t look like Vazquez will end up with either major market club.
I spoke to Chicago Tribune White Sox beat writer Mark Gonzales for his take on the rumor:
"Don’t think it’s going to happen. They had a brief chat, and nothing is on the front burner as of late last week. Garland has become a bigger concern because of the free agent market."
The takeaway? The Sox probably won’t chase Vazquez, but they’re not going to pay Garland A.J. Burnett money after this season. Look for Garland to be dealt before the trading deadline, and possibly this winter.
How about the Mets? My source close to the team tells me that some in the front office are privately scared of how Vazquez fared in the Bronx. Omar likes him, but there is a split opinion. The club is in wait and see mode, so they won’t aggressively pursue Vazquez.
One thing’s for sure – the Diamondbacks are being tight-lipped about details of the Vazquez deal. I know that Jack Magruder of the East Valley Tribune, who is close to Josh Byrnes, still doesn’t know where the righty starter is headed. Perhaps an unexpected team will emerge with the best offer, like the Tigers for example.
Mets Not Pursuing Tejada
In Thursday’s Miguel Tejada column, I suggested that the Mets might pursue the shortstop. A few other outlets speculated along similar lines. After speaking with my Mets source today, I’m convinced there’s no chance of the club trading for Tejada.
According to my source, GM Omar Minaya is content to just tinker with his team at this point. Benson and Matsui could go in the right deals, and Minaya will add depth to his bullpen. He’ll also pick up another option for 2B. But Jose Reyes isn’t going anywhere, and Tejada’s not coming to New York.