Yankees Rumors

Examining The Yankees’ 2021 Payroll Situation

By TC Zencka | October 17, 2020 at 7:10pm CDT

The Yankees 2020 season was a success by most measures – except for the 2nd-place finish behind Tampa Bay. The Rays took them out in the postseason as well, which was particularly galling with a payroll that (for a full season) floated around $265MM. The Rays, by contrast, fielded a payroll of around $73MM. As opposed to the old days, when the Yankees division rivalry with the Red Sox might prompt a spending spree to put them over the top, the Rays pose a new kind of threat. The Yankees cannot delude themselves into thinking their loss in 2020 has anything at all to do with money. The Yankees have to explore the possibility of doing more with less.

If there’s a model for the Yankees to mimic, it’s the Dodgers more so than the Rays. Though, considering that Andrew Friedman – the architect of these Dodgers – came from the Rays, one could argue that modeling oneself after the Dodgers is mimicking the Rays. The Yankees – lest we forget – are no slouches themselves when it comes to roster construction. Besides, it’s not any easier to become the Rays overnight than it is to become the Yankees overnight. Still, signs point to the Yankees facing a dramatic cut in payroll, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Sherman suggests the Yankees will want to steer clear of exceeding the $210MM luxury tax line, which means taking a significant step back payroll-wise. Making it easier for GM Brian Cashman will be a whole slew of contracts coming off the books: James Paxton ($12.5MM), Masahiro Tanaka ($23MM), DJ LeMahieu ($12MM), J.A. Happ ($17MM), Jacoby Ellsbury ($5MM), and Brett Gardner ($7.5MM).

Taking into account potential arbitration raises, Sherman pegs the Yankees current 2021 payroll to be around $171MM, which leaves probably a little more than $30MM in payroll space if the Yankees do intend to stay south of the luxury tax line. Non-tendering or trading Gary Sanchez would save $5MM, but they would need to fill his roster spot in that case.

Otherwise, they need a middle infielder – or to bring LeMahieu back. If LeMeahieu leaves, they could explore the possibility of finding a glove-first shortstop to shore up the defense while moving Gleyber Torres to second. While it’s not fun to consider the possibility of losing LeMahieu, they could probably withstand his departure, especially with Clint Frazier looking like a viable starting outfielder. Not to diminish LeMahieu’s importance – he is the batting champ, after all – but the Yankees would otherwise return most of a crew that scored the 4th-most runs in the majors in 2020.

As much as the Yankees like LeMahieu, they have greater need in the rotation – and the money crunch is real. If Tanaka were to, say, accept a qualifying offer, their available money gets cut in half pretty quickly. LeMahieu, meanwhile, is looking at a contract that nets him $20MM per season, if MLBTR readers are to be believed.

Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Deivi Garcia, Jordan Montgomery, Clarke Schmidt, and Domingo German provides manager Aaron Boone with a better group of rotation arms than many teams have, but they’re largely unproven (or coming off lost seasons in the case of Severino/German). Especially returning to a full 162-game season, depth is key in the rotation, a lesson Yankees’ fans know well. Without any additions, the Yankees would lean heavily on Cole for the second consecutive season. As good as he was this year, he can’t win a pennant all his own.

All that said, there could be some real bargains on the free agent market this winter. It’s an offseason unlike any we’ve ever seen before. With teams planning to cut payroll almost across the board because of the revenue losses caused by the pandemic, it’s hard to pinpoint any specific club that’s definitely going to spend big money. New York could explore moving some of their committed money – like the $13MM owed to Zack Britton and his 1.89 ERA in his final season on the books – but again, given the revenue losses all across baseball, there aren’t likely to be a lot of places to dump payroll.

MLBTR Poll: DJ LeMahieu’s Next Contract

By Connor Byrne | October 16, 2020 at 8:30pm CDT

It was only two years ago that second baseman DJ LeMahieu reached free agency for the first time. The former Cub and Rockie hit the open market as someone who was regarded as a useful contributor, but hardly a star. He still did well for himself, inking a $24MM pact with the Yankees, but now finds himself on the verge of another trip to free agency. The difference this time is that LeMahieu will now be one of the most coveted players available.

While LeMahieu did have a batting title with the Rockies on his resume when the Yankees added him, he didn’t show off a ton of power prior to moving to New York. In all, he was a .298/.350/.406 hitter with a mediocre 90 wRC+ and 49 home runs across 3,799 plate appearances. Since then, though, LeMahieu has exploded for a .336/.386/.536 mark, a 146 wRC+ and 36 HRs, making him one of the sport’s elite hitters. He’s coming off a regular season in which he picked up another batting title (.364) and paced the American League in wRC+ (177).

One of the questions now is how far the Yankees may go to retain LeMahieu. He said before their season-ending ALDS loss to the Rays that there had not been any contract talks, but it’s hard to believe the Yankees won’t put forth an earnest effort to re-sign the 32-year-old before free agency opens. They may not make a competitive enough offer, however, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote earlier this week that the Yankees are likely to “hold the line” at a maximum of three years and $20MM per annum.

During our pre-free agency debates at MLBTR, we’ve set a floor of $80MM over four years, though we have entertained even higher guarantees. No matter what, it’s easy to see LeMahieu, a big hitter with defensive versatility, reeling in a far larger payday than he did the last time he was looking for a contract. For this exercise, we’ll place the over/under at $80.5MM. How well do you think LeMahieu will do? (Poll link for app users)

Over/under on LeMahieu's next deal

Over $80.5MM 52.44% (6,586 votes)

Under $80.5MM 47.56% (5,974 votes)

Total Votes: 12,560

Latest On The Catching Market, Realmuto, Sánchez

By TC Zencka | October 14, 2020 at 9:22pm CDT

J.T. Realmuto will be the best catcher on the free agent market this winter – and one of the best players of any measure. The two-time All-Star should have no shortage of potential suitors when the bidding begins. Though their opportunity to filibuster is nearing an end, the Phillies aren’t yielding the floor quite yet. Expect interim GM Ned Rice and President Andy MacPhail to continue their efforts to bring the Oklahoman back to Philadelphia. A true two-way serviceman like Realmuto with elite skills on both sides of the ball will wag the tails of more than a few executives around the game, however.

Realmuto will turn 30-years-old in March of next season, and any team that signs him will have to be aware of the threat the aging curve poses to his long-term productivity. And yet, it’s not as if we haven’t seen productive offensive catchers in the past. Similar performers of the past can provide insight into how well Realmuto may age as he enters his thirties (and how much he might be worth over the life of that next contract), which the Athletic’s Tim Britton explores. Looking at a collection of catchers with similar career arcs to Realmuto’s, Britton lands on either a four-year, $96MM deal or a six-year, $128MM deal as the proper valuation for Realmuto’s services moving forward.

It’s worth mentioning, Realmuto’s future viability could benefit from a rule change or two. If the designated hitter stays in the National League, for instance, Realmuto’s next club could keep him fresh into his thirties while still allowing his bat to play. He is one of the rare catchers whose bat could conceivably play at DH. But there’s also the possibility of electronic strike zones, which could lessen the detriment that aging has on a catcher’s defensive performance.

But electronic strike zones aren’t coming next season, and it’s hard to know when exactly they may enter everyday use. It’s that very issue that threatens the employability of bigger-body backstops like Gary Sánchez, Wilson Ramos, and Jorge Alfaro, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman provides this interesting insight from an anonymous executive, “When the automated strike zone comes maybe you can have a DH catch because framing will mean nothing or maybe if we give the catcher an earpiece and can feed him every pitch, game calling will mean nothing. But we are asking catchers to make 150 decisions a game and have deep relationships with every pitcher and more than ever you cannot throw the defensive component away.”

Each of Sánchez, Ramos, and Alfaro lost playing time down the stretch and in the playoffs to better defensive catchers. Sánchez in particular faced a rather public “benching.” As the playoffs wore on and Sánchez struggled to light a fuse at the plate, the Yankees increasingly went with Kyle Higashioka as their primary receiver. Sánchez has another round of arbitration this winter after making a full-scale salary of $5MM in 2020, but the Yankees are likely to try and move him before the contract tender date of December 2nd, writes Sherman.

Given the state of the game amid the pandemic, rampant revenue losses make for a more uncertain winter than any in recent memory. The number of teams capable of luring J.T. may be limited if the price for entry is in the neighborhood suggested by Britton. James McCann and Mike Zunino represent the “best of the rest,” though the trade market could add a player like Sánchez to grease the wheels. Take another look at our free agency preview, provided here by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, but it’s certainly going to be interesting to see the length, duration, and location of Realmuto’s next deal.

AL Notes: Yankees, Voit, Orioles, Angels, GM Timeline

By TC Zencka | October 14, 2020 at 8:21pm CDT

Luke Voit’s plantar fasciitis is under control after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection, per the Athletic’s Lindsey Adler (via Twitter). Voit will be in a walking boot for a week or two, but the Yankees expect him to be healed by the end of that time. Voit didn’t miss any time to the issue, and he certainty didn’t appear to be overly affected while slashing .277/.338/.610 and leading the majors with 22 home runs.

While the Dodgers drub the Braves in game three of the NLDS, let’s stay in the junior circuit and check in on some non-playoff teams…

The Baltimore Orioles laid off 11 workers and furloughed 35 more, per Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. At present, those furloughed employees are set to return to work on February 1st to match the timeline for spring training. Teams all across MLB have laid off large portions of the their staff because of revenue lost to the coronavirus pandemic. No fans were allowed in Camden Yards for the 60-game season, very much complicating the revenue picture for the Orioles (as with other clubs) moving forward. Ruiz provides a quote from GM Mike Elias that sums up the 2020 season, saying: “Baseball teams do a lot of planning, looking ahead, and just all of that is just totally out of the window because of this event that came in and turned the world upside down.”
Unsurprisingly, the Angels will not be filling their GM vacancy until after the World Series, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). The Angels aren’t particular close to finding their next hire, per Fletcher. It certainly makes sense that they might take some time. On the other hand, given how much work there is to be done in the offseason, some urgency to set a clear organizational direction prior to the impactful events of the offseason also makes sense. Eppler was hired in early October of 2015, though in that case, Jerry Dipoto, the previous GM, had stepped down in July.

Latest On Luis Severino, Yankees’ Rotation

By Connor Byrne and TC Zencka | October 14, 2020 at 5:23pm CDT

The Yankees have gone through most of the past two seasons without one of their best players, right-hander Luis Severino. After emerging as an ace-caliber starter from 2017-18, Severino logged just 12 innings in 2019 because of shoulder surgery. The hope was that Severino would return to health this past year, but the Tommy John procedure he underwent in February wiped out the chances of that. He missed the entire season as a result.

As someone who’s still just 26 years old, the Yankees are no doubt hopeful that the hard-throwing Severino will return to form next season. However, they’ll have to make do without Severino when the campaign opens, as general manager Brian Cashman told James Wagner of the New York Times and other reporters on Wednesday that the hurler won’t return until June or July.

Another Severino-less rotation, even if only for a couple of months, would leave the Yankees with Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt among the in-house possibilities for their staff (Cole’s obviously a lock). They’re currently slated to lose Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and J.A. Happ to free agency, while Domingo German’s future is uncertain after he missed all of 2020 because of a domestic violence suspension. Though German has been reinstated by MLB, the Yankees have not had “access” to him yet because of COVID protocols, per the Athletic’s Lindsey Adler (via Twitter).

Cashman spoke about the rotation Wednesday, saying that it “needs to get improved upon,” per Marc Carig of The Athletic. Notably, aside from the aforementioned pending free agents from New York, the market will include the likes of top option Trevor Bauer, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana, and Jake Odorizzi. The Rangers’ Lance Lynn, a former Yankee, figures to be near the forefront of the trade market. Don’t be surprised to see the Yankees explore the Lynn or other options in the trade market to build out their rotation depth. Given the success of the Rays this season, the Yankees figure to enter 2021 with an appropriate amount of urgency – and that means having depth ready for action.

Tigers Have Interviewed Marcus Thames For Managerial Job

By Connor Byrne | October 14, 2020 at 4:31pm CDT

The Tigers interviewed Yankees hitting coach Marcus Thames for their vacant managerial position last week, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets (and as Tony Paul of the Detroit News previously reported). Thames joins Dodgers first base coach George Lombard as known candidates to succeed Ron Gardenhire, who retired as the Tigers’ skipper in the second half of September.

Like Lombard, Thames was a member of the Tigers during his playing career. In fact, Thames spent the majority of his career in Detroit, where he suited up from 2004-09. His time as a major leaguer, which he also spent with the Yankees, Rangers and Dodgers, ended in 2011.

Dating back to 2014, Thames has worked for the Yankees in both the minors and the bigs. He joined their major league coaching staff as the hitting coach prior to 2018, and though it’s difficult to quantify the impact he has made, the Yankees’ offense has been rather successful on Thames’ watch. In three years under his tutelage, the club ranks first in the league in runs and wRC+.

Yankees Will Evaluate Catcher Position

By Connor Byrne | October 14, 2020 at 12:22pm CDT

The Yankees have largely stuck by catcher Gary Sanchez during what has been an up-and-down career, but it’s possible that could change before next season. Asked Wednesday about Sanchez’s status, general manager Brian Cashman was not willing to commit to him as the team’s No. 1 catcher going forward. Cashman said (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) that it’s “certainly a fair question” whether Sanchez will remain the Yankees’ main backstop. The Yankees plan to evaluate the position during the offseason.

Sanchez began his career with a flourish in 2016, smacking 20 home runs and slashing .299/.376/.557 in 229 plate appearances, but his offense and defense have been inconsistent since then. Sanchez was a big-hitting catcher as recently as 2019, but the 27-year-old slumped to a .147/.253/.365 line with 10 homers over 178 PA during this past regular season. He also led the AL in passed balls and finished in the majors’ 37th percentile in framing (per Statcast), though he did throw out a respectable 27 percent of would-be base stealers.

While the Yankees may be souring on Sanchez, whom they sat in the playoffs on multiple occasions, alternatives aren’t easy to find. J.T. Realmuto would represent an upgrade and a major splash on the open market, but the only starting-caliber catcher available after him in free agency will be James McCann. The Yankees do have Kyle Higashioka, ace Gerrit Cole’s personal catcher, on their roster, but he hasn’t shown he’s capable of an everyday role. So, barring a $100MM-plus Realmuto signing, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees keep Sanchez on their roster for 2021 in his second year of arbitration eligibility. He earned a prorated $5MM this season.

Steinbrenner: Aaron Boone “Will Be Back” In 2021

By Anthony Franco | October 13, 2020 at 5:58pm CDT

Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner met with various media members to discuss the team’s upcoming offseason. First and foremost, he addressed the status of skipper Aaron Boone. As with most managers whose teams don’t ultimately win the World Series, Boone came under some fire from fans and media for his handling of the pitching staff this postseason. Steinbrenner, though, shot down any speculation about a change in the managerial chair. “Aaron Boone will be back next year, that’s just a fact,” the owner said (via Marly Rivera of ESPN). Steinbrenner added that he remains happy with the performance of GM Brian Cashman, as well (from David Lennon of Newsday).

While it seems the Yankees will keep their main leadership structure in place, they’ll have some key roster decisions to make. One player Boone seemed to lose faith in down the stretch is Gary Sánchez. The 27-year-old has been one of the league’s premier offensive catchers since breaking into the big leagues for good in 2016. Sánchez completely lost his way at the plate this season, though, prompting the Yankees to at least consider moving him in advance of the August 31 trade deadline.

Steinbrenner implied Sánchez would be back in the Bronx in 2021, noting that the club will have to “get him back” to form (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Those comments notwithstanding, Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears from multiple rival executives who expect the Yankees to again listen to offers on Sánchez in the coming months.

Of course, the club will also have to weigh the uncertain economic climate in all their personnel decisions. Steinbrenner became the latest MLB owner to discuss the widespread revenue losses the sport incurred this season. The 50-year-old said the sport’s most visible franchise took “significant losses, more than any other team in baseball” during the pandemic-shortened season (Hoch link). How much that’ll affect the Yankees’ upcoming payroll remains to be seen.

AL East Notes: Sanchez, Red Sox, Beane, Orioles, Blue Jays

By Mark Polishuk | October 13, 2020 at 2:58pm CDT

Gary Sanchez’s nightmarish 2020 season has turned him into a question mark for the Yankees moving forward, and the club at least considered turning the page earlier this year. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, “the Yankees were open to the idea of trading” Sanchez back in August prior to the trade deadline. Given how adamant GM Brian Cashman has been about Sanchez not being a trade candidate in the past, this seems like a noteworthy shift in thinking, though not an unexpected one given how badly Sanchez struggled this season.

Feinsand included this news tidbit as part of a larger piece about J.T. Realmuto’s likeliest suitors this winter, with the Yankees ranked second on that list. Signing Realmuto would be the biggest possible way to upgrade at catcher, but it isn’t clear if the Yankees are willing (or able) to make another huge spending splash in the wake of 2020’s major revenue losses.

No Talks Yet Between Yankees, Zack Britton On Contract Option

By Mark Polishuk | October 13, 2020 at 12:36pm CDT

The Yankees face a number of big decisions this offseason, though one of their more immediate bits of business will be figuring out Zack Britton’s status for both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Britton is two years into a three-year, $39MM deal that contains a $14MM club option for 2022, and a clause in the contract states that the Yankees have to decide whether or not to exercise that option now, rather than after the 2021 campaign. If the club option is declined, Britton can opt out of his contract and hit free agency this offseason.

More details are provided by Britton himself, in an e-mail to George A. King III of the New York Post. According to the left-hander, “the Yankees have until the third day following the end of the World Series” to exercise or decline the 2022 option. If they decline, Britton has until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to opt out or remain playing under his 2021 obligation.

“I have not had any discussions regarding my contract with the Yankees,” Britton said, adding that he will soon be touching base with his agent Scott Boras to discuss the situation.

Given that New York’s season only just ended last Friday, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the team hasn’t yet fully explored all of their offseason matters. It is also quite possible that in Britton’s case, the Yankees might not have much to discuss — the southpaw delivered another superb year, with a 1.89 ERA, 2.29 K/BB rate, 7.6 K/9, and elite 71.7% grounder rate, and zero home runs allowed over 19 innings of work.

Retaining Britton for the cost of $27MM over 2021-22 seems like a relatively easy yes for the team. One potential complication could be the Yankees’ overall payroll picture, should they decide that Britton’s salary could be better spent on other pressing issues, like re-signing DJ LeMahieu or adding to the rotation. But, as King notes, Britton was an important stabilizing force in a bullpen that had its share of inconsistency in both the regular season and in the playoffs.

On the off chance that the club option is declined, it’s probably also safe to assume that Britton would choose to opt out of his 2021 deal. Britton turns 33 in December, and he would be leaving $13MM on the table to enter one of the most unpredictable free agent markets of all time. The Yankees could also attach a qualifying offer to Britton, further impacting his market. Even with those obstacles, however, it’s quite easy to imagine Britton scoring more two years and $27MM considering his track record as one of the sport’s better relievers.

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