Free Agent Profile: Curtis Granderson
A pair of broken bones isn't something any impending free agent wants to endure in a contract year, but that's what Curtis Granderson is attempting to overcome. After a pair of 40-homer campaigns from 2011-12, Granderson was hit by a pitch in his first Spring Training plate appearance in 2013. X-rays would reveal a fractured forearm that wound up causing the Grandy Man to sit out the first six weeks of the year.
As if that wasn't enough poor luck for the former Tiger, he was struck in the left hand by a pitch from Rays reliever Cesar Ramos on May 24 in just his eighth game of the season. Granderson stayed in the game briefly, but that would be his last contest until Aug. 2, as he had suffered a broken metacarpal that required surgery. After missing about two-thirds of the season, Granderson will hit the open market as a free agent.
Strengths/Pros
The first thing that comes to mind with Granderson is power. After averaging 24 homers per season from 2006-10, Granderson exploded with a 41-homer campaign in his second season with the Yankees. 
He followed that up with 43 long balls in 2012. While many will point to Yankee Stadium as the reason for his surge in power, it wasn't all the ballpark. Granderson belted 47 homers at Yankee Stadium in 2011-12 but still went deep 37 times on the road. No one in baseball had more home runs from 2011-12 than Granderson, and his 30 homers against lefties in that span were also the most in baseball.
He's capable of playing all three outfield positions as a result of his good speed, though advanced defensive metrics soured on him in 2012. UZR and The Fielding Bible both like his glove-work in this season's limited sample size, however, and he grades out as a positive defender for his career per both metrics.
That speed also comes through on the basepaths. Granderson is still a threat for double-digit stolen bases. He's swiped seven bags in 55 games this season and is just stole 25 as recently as 2011. According to Fangraphs, he's never had a full season in which his baserunning has cost his team runs, and he's been worth 28 runs above average on the basepaths over the course of his career (he's at +1.3 this season).
Granderson is also patient; he's walked in 11 percent of his plate appearances dating back to the 2008 season. His blend of patience and power allows a manager to bat him anywhere in the lineup. While he's missed time with injury this season, both were freak accidents. From 2006-12, Granderson was a picture of durability, averaging 153 games per season.
Weaknesses/Cons
Granderson hit .302 in 2007 and backed it up with a .280 season, but don't confuse him for a player that's going to hit for a high average. From 2009-13, Granderson has batted .247 due to a strikeout rate that has continued to rise. At this point, it's fair to expect him to whiff in roughly a quarter of his trips to the plate.
His best year at the plate came in 2011, when Granderson was able to post an OPS north of .900 against both lefties and righties, but he's often struggled to hit for average and get on base against left-handed pitching. In 2012, Granderson hit just .218/.304/.458 against southpaws. He's been better in a small sample size this season, but he's never shown a prolonged ability to hit lefties over multiple seasons.
Granderson is also on the wrong side of his prime. He'll turn 33 next March, so any team that pays him on a multi-year deal could fall victim to the dreaded "pay for the prime, get the decline" scenario. His isolated power peaked at .290 in 2011, dropped to .260 last season and is currently at .188. That's still a strong number but could be a portent for a power outage in the near future.
Personal
Granderson has a big personality and is friendly toward fans, teammates and the media. His parents are both retired teachers, which is one of the reasons that he is so dedicated to education. Granderson finished the final two years of his degree from the University of Illinois-Chicago while playing in the Tigers organization. He also founded the Grand Kids Foundation in 2008 — a foundation aimed to increase educational and youth baseball opportunities for inner-city children. He's very active elsewhere within the community as well, having participated in programs such as Play Baseball Detroit and Tigers Dreams Come True. He is widely regarded as one of the most amiable players in the game.
Market
Granderson's track record is strong enough that he will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and he has a case for a multiyear deal elsewhere even if he rejects that offer. His power and magnetic personality will appeal to all teams, and the latter will be particularly appealing to large market teams with aggressive media. Granderson is a native of the Chicago area and has enjoyed his time in New York, though he hasn't necessarily indicated a geographic preference.
Granderson will be competing with the likes of Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence this offseason, each of whom is younger and coming off a career year in a full, healthy season.
Expected Contract
It's tough to pin down Granderson's free agent value. Had he enjoyed a healthy season similar to 2011-12, he'd be in line for at least a four-year deal. Agent Matt Brown of Pro Prospects Inc. can emphasize the point that his two injuries were freak accidents, but teams won't simply ignore the fact that Granderson will end up having played in roughly 60 games this season.
It only takes one team to push him to a four-year guarantee, so it's not out of the question. Any team that is willing to guarantee a fourth year and sign him for Nick Swisher money — four years and $56MM — would likely be able to land Granderson. However, I'm predicting that Granderson will sign a three-year, $45MM contract this offseason, perhaps with an option that could bring him to that fourth year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Rangers, A’s, Jeter, Nationals, Phillies
In an attempt to compensate for the looming loss of Nelson Cruz to his 50-game suspension, the Rangers tried to swing a big trade for Justin Upton at the July trade deadline, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The Braves refused a package of Matt Garza, Joe Nathan and David Murphy. If those are the only three players the Rangers offered, it's not a surprise that the Braves passed — Garza and Murphy are eligible for free agency after the season, while Upton is a good young player who is under contract through 2015. Eventually, of course, the Rangers acquired Alex Rios in August. Here are more notes from around the Majors.
- The Athletics clinched their second AL West title in a row with an 11-7 win over the Twins on Sunday, and GM Billy Beane says the team's depth has been the key to their smooth season, John Hickey of InsideBayArea.com reports. "We knew going in this was the deepest roster we’d ever had here," says Beane. "We needed that depth, and it paid for itself." As Hickey points out, the Athletics hardly missed a beat all season, even though Brett Anderson, Josh Reddick, John Jaso and Derek Norris all missed significant time. Here are more notes from around the Majors. A quietly brilliant season from Josh Donaldson surely helped, but the A's got solid offensive and defensive performances from most of their hitters, and other than Anderson, their starting rotation mostly stayed healthy.
- After taking in the ceremony for Mariano Rivera and the applause for Andy Pettitte on Sunday, it dawned on injured Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter that he had played his final game with his two retiring teammates, Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger reports. "I’m going to miss them a lot," says Jeter. "These guys have been brothers to me. We’ve been through quite a bit together. Pretty much everything you can experience on a field. In my whole professional career, I’ve been playing with at least one of them." The three had their rookie seasons together with the 1995 Yankees, and Jeter and Pettitte also played on many of the same minor-league teams, including Class A Greensboro in 1992 and and Triple-A Columbus in 1994 and 1995.
- Pitcher Dan Haren thinks the Nationals should aim to keep their team together, writes MLB.com's Andrew Simon. "Last year they had a great year and this year we’ve shown a lot of fight here the last few months. I think as close as things could stay to the guys in this room, I think the better," Haren says. He also appears to support bench coach Randy Knorr for the Nationals' managerial position, which will be open when Davey Johnson retires after the season. Haren himself is a free agent, of course, and he seems aware that he might not be part of the 2014 Nationals, even if they ultimately go with a similar roster: "I know there’ll be some subtle changes, me probably being one of them."
- Now that the Phillies have settled on Ryne Sandberg as their manager, they'll now turn their attention to their coaching staff, MLB.com's Todd Zolecki reports. With a new manager, it's typical to have at least some change in the rest of the coaching staff. Zolecki mentions that one potential change might be re-hiring former manager Larry Bowa in some capacity.
- A "winter of discontent" is on the way for Phillies fans, writes Bob Ford of the Inquirer. After a recent streak of successful seasons, Ford says, a team elsewhere might "get a standing ovation and then be allowed to attempt its rebuilding with patient if not fervent support. That might be the case here as well, if only the team would get on with the rebuilding." Instead, the Phils will head into the offseason expecting to keep aging veterans Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cliff Lee. They might also go into 2014 with Carlos Ruiz still at catcher, and perhaps also with Roy Halladay in the rotation. Ford compares the Phillies to a rock band who are still touring long past the point where they've lost relevance, "dyeing their hair and wearing hearing aids."
East Notes: Yankees, Rays, Loria
The impending retirements of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte mark the end of an era for which Yankees fans should be grateful, Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues. The Yankees have been over .500 for 21 straight seasons, and have gone to the playoffs in 17 of the last 18 seasons. Their success, however, came with "impossible standards," with former owner George Steinbrenner imposing a "championship-or-humiliation doctrine." The Yankees' enormous payrolls competitors help them, Sherman admits, but other franchises (the Phillies, Angels and Blue Jays, for example) have spent lots on payroll and had far less success. And the Yankees' superb homegrown core of Derek Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada has been an enormous part of the Yankees' winning ways, too. Here are more notes from the East divisions.
- The Rays will likely try to address first base, left field, designated hitter and their bench this winter, writes the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin in a preview of the months to come. The Rays' decisions to pick up their 2014 options for middle infielders Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar will be "obvious," leaving the Rays set at those positions.
- Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria isn't listening to president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest as much as he used to, because Beinfest isn't afraid to tell Loria when he doesn't like his player-acquisition ideas, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. As an example, Jackson says that when Beinfest recently recommended that the Marlins promote second baseman Derek Dietrich, Loria refused, because he was angry at Dietrich's accusations of abusive behavior by ex-hitting coach coach Tino Martinez. But then assistant GM Dan Jennings made the same suggestion about promoting Dietrich, and Loria relented.
Cafardo On Girardi, Rockies, Gardenhire, Washington
Agent Scott Boras wants to see the World Series elevated to the same level as the Super Bowl in terms of national buzz and corporate sponsorship and he believes he has a plan to make that happen, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Boras proposes having the first or first two games played at a neutral site to combat the "regionalized" feel of the Fall Classic. “It would be a gathering place for all of baseball,” Boras said. “The team officials would have to show up for the awards and other business. It could be the start of the hot-stove season as it once was. It would bring baseball center stage. It would make the World Series an event, much like the All-Star Game, which is the best in sports. Why not take all of the metrics of that event and apply them to the World Series?” Here's more from today's column..
- One Yankees official thinks it’s “70-30” that Joe Girardi returns next season as manager. Girardi would be intrigued by the Cubs' managerial job and Chicago is said to be contemplating Dale Sveum’s future with the team. Girardi has done a remarkable job this season, but Cafardo wonders if he might want out as the Bombers rebuild.
- There’s increased talk that Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd could be on the hot seat after the Rockies fell short of expectations this season. The Rockies have a two-headed monster at the executive level that might not be working as well as expected and O'Dowd could be the man to go.
- The biggest issue on whether the Twins bring Ron Gardenhire back is whether they believe he’s been on the job too long and has lost touch with his players. While Minnesota has one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, GM Terry Ryan and owner Jim Pohlad have to decide if Gardenhire is the guy to lead the resurgence.
- Internally, people in the Rangers organization have no doubts regarding Ron Washington’s job status. That lines up with comments from GM Jon Daniels last week when he said that the skipper's job isn't in jeopardy.
- Longtime MLB exec Andy MacPhail has taken some time away from the game but he's now ready to get back into baseball. It's not clear exactly what he wants to do, but he probably doesn't want to be a GM. Cafardo suggests that he could return to run an organization and his ties to commissioner Bud Selig could help his candidacy.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays
In case you missed it, yesterday was a big day in the AL East. The Red Sox clinched the division, even if that had already become a foregone conclusion. Meanwhile, the Rays and Orioles churned through a record twenty-one pitchers in an epic, 18-inning contest that left Tampa in the driver's seat of the Wild Card race. Here are some notes on the division:
- The Red Sox' turnaround exceeded even the team's internal expectations, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com. While the Sox pegged the likeliest outcome as an 86-win campaign, with an outside shot at a low-90's figure, Boston has already notched 94 W's with seven left to go. "I think we're all in a bit of shock," said team chairman Tom Werner.
- Speier provides a detailed explanation of how the team effected its dramatic turnaround, ranging from the return to form of several regulars (especially in the rotation), development of an impressive bench (including the DFA'd Mike Carp), and improved focus and chemistry. As Speier notes, the front office "nailed one bull's-eye after another while turning over roughly a third of its roster."
- Under GM Ben Cherington, Boston has transformed its organization and with it the product on the field, writes Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. As with the Speier piece, you'll want to read the entire article, but the most interesting bits relate to the GM's philosophies. Approaching his post with a long-term focus, humble evaluative framework, and open mind, Gammons explains how Cherington has infused solid, hard-working pieces into the organization.
- Rotation stalwart Andy Pettitte's forthcoming retirement is yet another reminder that a Yankee era is ending, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. The team faces a wide array of roster challenges heading into 2013, says Knobler, with age and injury questions around the diamond, no attractive catching options, and a meager free agent market to play in.
- Of course, given the team's unequaled spending capacity, one is always loath to count out the Bronx Bombers. Indeed, GM Brian Cashman has navigated countless hurdles this season to deliver a contender, though the team is now highly likely to miss out on the postseason for just the second time in the last nineteen years. Looking ahead, the Yanks have relatively meager overall commitments in comparison to their historical $200MM+ payroll levels: $89MM in 2014 (six players, one buy-out); $68.1MM in 2015 (three players); $69.1MM in 2016 (three players); and $26MM in 2017 (one player, one buy-out). And that is before accounting for any dollars saved via the yet-to-be-finalized Alex Rodriguez suspension. Of course, those amounts do not account for a new deal for Robinson Cano, and it is looking increasingly likely that the team's long-term commitments may deliver little in on-field production.
- The Blue Jays have long been the lone AL East team with nothing left to play for in 2013. The team's brass has already begun evaluating and planning for next year, reports Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. Addressing a reader question, Griffin says that the team has little reason to waste its energy pursuing star second baseman Robinson Cano, but could instead take advantage of salary coming off the books after 2015 to make a back-loaded offer to a free agent pitcher.
- Looking forward, Toronto has a heavily front-loaded set of salary obligations after carrying a franchise-high $119.3MM payroll on opening day this year. The Jays have the league's fourth-highest contract commitments for both 2014 ($110.5MM) and 2015 ($91.2MM), but are locked into a below-average $27.6MM in 2016. To back-load money to a free agent this offseason, however, would mean giving out at least a three- or four-year deal, and there do not appear to be many starters on the market that would warrant that kind of commitment.
Andy Pettitte To Retire After 2013 Season
11:17am: The Yankees have issued a press release officially announce Pettitte's retirement. Pettitte offered the following statement within the release:
“I’m announcing my retirement prior to the conclusion of our season because I want all of our fans to know now — while I’m still wearing this uniform — how grateful I am for their support throughout my career. I want to have the opportunity to tip my cap to them during these remaining days and thank them for making my time here with the Yankees so special. I’ve reached the point where I know that I’ve left everything I have out there on that field. The time is right. I’ve exhausted myself, mentally and physically, and that’s exactly how I want to leave this game. One of the things I struggled with in making this announcement now was doing anything to take away from Mariano’s day on Sunday. It is his day. He means so much to me, and has meant so much to my career that I would just hate to somehow take the attention away from him.”
10:05am: The final two starts of Andy Pettitte's storied career, appropriately, will come at Yankee Stadium in New York (on Mariano Rivera day) and Minute Maid Park in Houston. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the 41-year-old Pettitte will announce his retirement later this afternoon.
Pettitte originally retired following the 2010 season and didn't play in 2011, but the veteran lefty came back for two more years with the Yankees from 2012-13. An broken fibula cost him much of the 2012 season, but it's hard to argue with the overall results he's delivered in his return tour. Over the past two seasons, Pettitte has pitched to a 3.60 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 244 2/3 innings, adding 15 wins and slightly more than four WAR to his career totals. According to Sherman, Pettitte has told friends that the 2013 season has been much tougher on his body than he had anticipated.
Pettitte has earned just shy of $140MM in his baseball career, according to Baseball-Reference.com. He donned just two jerseys in his 18-season Major League career — those of the New York Yankees and his hometown Houston Astros. He's pitched exactly 3,300 innings to date, compiling a 3.86 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 to go along with 255 Major League wins. He is a three-time All-Star and has finished in the Top 5 in Cy Young voting on four occasions. Pettitte helped the Yankees to five World Series championships, and his 19 postseason wins are a Major League record. His Hall of Fame candidacy will likely be negatively impacted by his admitted use of HGH on two instances in the early 2000s.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Yankees, Logan, DeRosa
Earlier tonight we rounded up the latest from the NL East and in the interest of equal time, we'll run down tonight's news from the AL East..
- Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet runs down the Blue Jays' in-house and out-of-house rotation options for 2014. BNS expects GM Alex Anthopoulos to go after high-end starters this winter and sees Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Tim Lincecum as potential targets. Of course, they won't just be limited to the open market and they could even explore deals for Chicago's top young arms – Jeff Samardzija and Chris Sale.
- Impending free agent Boone Logan makes no secret of his desire to stay with the Yankees beyond this season, writes Daniel Barbarisi of the Wall Street Journal. "Why wouldn't you?" he said. "I look at it like this: When I started pitching good, I was with the Yankees. It's something I'm going to look a lot more into, and give it more thought, but I will say this: Why fix something that isn't broke? That's something I've got to talk to myself about. That time will come. But why wouldn't you want to play for the Yankees, if you can?"
- Blue Jays veteran Mark DeRosa still isn't sure if he wants to return in 2014 or retire, writes MLB.com's Evan Peaslee. Toronto will likely exercise his $750K option for next season, so the decision to come back to the Blue Jays rests in the 38-year-old's hands.
International Notes: Tanaka, Abreu
The latest on some of the top international targets for Major League teams this winter…
- The Angels have been scouting Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka and will consider a run at him this offseason, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Tanaka represents a way for the team to upgrade its rotation with a controllable, young arm (Tanaka is currently 24) without having to sacrifice players like Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick in a trade, DiGiovanna adds.
- In his game recap of Tanaka's most recent start (he threw a 10-hit, one-run complete game), Baseball America's Ben Badler cites Japanese media outlet Sanspo in reporting that the Yankees, Red Sox and Diamondbacks all had scouts in attendance once again. All three were said to have scouts in attendance for another recent Tanaka outing. Badler's subscription-only piece includes a full report on Tanaka's performance.
- The Phillies aren't likely to make a play for Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu, a team source told MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. The presence of Ryan Howard and Abreu's inability to handle an outfield spot leave them without a place to put him despite the need for right-handed power. Zolecki adds that the Phillies have worked out top prospect Maikel Franco at first base as well, so they could have a power-hitting, right-handed first baseman to eventually replace Howard anyway for a fraction of Abreu's price.
AL East Notes: Lind, Rasmus, Ryan, Orioles
In this morning's Insider blog post, ESPN's Buster Olney writes about the friendship that has grown between Red Sox DH David Ortiz and Yankees closer Mariano Rivera over the course of their storied careers in the AL East. Ortiz tells Olney that he respects Rivera in the same way that he respects his father. Ortiz will suit up for the Red Sox again in 2014, but Rivera is in the final stages of his farewell tour as the future Hall of Famer prepares to retire. Here's more from the AL East…
- Adam Lind is hopeful that the Blue Jays will exercise his $7MM option "sooner rather than later" and hopes the conversation will be conducted face-to-face with GM Alex Anthopoulos, Lind tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Lind is confident that even if his option is declined and he becomes a free agent, he will be able to find other employment. In that instance, he would hope to join a contending team, though he made it clear to Nicholson-Smith that his preference is to help bring a winning team to Toronto.
- Lind's future with the team looks more certain than it did in July, writes MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm in his latest Blue Jays Inbox. Before the team discovered a tumor on Melky Cabrera's spine, they were planning to move Cabrera to DH in 2014. The tumor explains Cabrera's limited mobility and drastic decline, however, meaning Cabrera can still play in the outfield while Lind serves as the DH. Lind's option contains a $2MM buyout, so the Jays essentially have a $5MM decision on whether or not to retain him.
- Chisholm also discusses Colby Rasmus' case for an extension but notes that Rasmus' 2013 season compares favorably to B.J. Upton's walk year prior to signing a five-year, $75.25MM contract with the Braves. As such, Anthopoulos is likely to make sure that Rasmus can repeat his breakout season before looking seriously at adding him to Toronto's core.
- New Yankees shortstop Brendan Ryan "loves" playing in New York, Olney tweets. Olney speculates that the Yankees will look to keep Ryan around as insurance for Derek Jeter in 2014.
- Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that the Orioles will have to make a 40-man roster move to activate Henry Urrutia from the restricted list and wonders if Dan Johnson will be the corresponding move. Kubatko also looks at the case for Jonathan Schoop to be the team's second baseman in 2014, with Brian Roberts' contract expiring after this season.
Yankees Outright Jim Miller
Here are today's minor moves from around the league…
- The Yankees have outrighted reliever Jim Miller to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre, according to the International League transactions page. Miller, 31, was designated for assignment last week in order to clear a roster spot for Brendan Ryan, whom the team acquired from the Mariners. Miller pitched in just one game for the Yankees in 2013 but racked up 48 2/3 impressive innings of 2.59 ERA ball for the A's in 2012.
- With Miller's outright, Cody Ransom of the Cubs is the lone player in DFA limbo, as shown in MLBTR's DFA Tracker.