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Rosenthal On Moneyball

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke to a slew of top executives about Moneyball, with the movie coming out Friday.  Here are a few highlights.

  • Executives Dave Dombrowski (Tigers) and Mark Shapiro (Indians) agree that the stark line drawn by the 2003 book between scouting and statistics is not present today.  I've yet to find a baseball executive who doesn't prefer a blend.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman admits that the Red Sox "were having a great deal of success with players of lesser ability," adding, "I studied what they were doing to some degree, adjusted accordingly, brought the Yankees up to speed, brought us into the 21st century."
  • Shapiro, president of the Indians, expects further dominance of big-market teams in the next five to seven years.  He added, "That doesn’t preclude small-market teams from winning. But they’re going to go in and out, go through cycles of winning, then violently remaking their rosters." 
  • Paul DePodesta told Rosenthal he thinks the explosion of information in baseball would have happened without Moneyball, but Cashman and Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. noted that they were pleased to see Oakland's methods revealed in the book.
  • Braves president John Schuerholz doesn't think so-called Moneyball teams have been successful, saying, "I think everyone looked and I don’t think many considered it a better mousetrap. You look at the won-loss records of the teams that adopted and the teams that didn’t, I don’t think you’ll find much of a difference in the impact."
  • Brewers GM Doug Melvin is losing some faith, based on "some bad experiences with possible deals that I might have made based off numbers."
  • Athletics GM Billy Beane believes injuries represent a current opportunity, if a team can create an advantage in prevention and treatment.  DePodesta noted that inefficiencies arise every five or six years, when a new collective bargaining agreement is reached.

Quick Hits: Epstein, Ozzie, Beltran

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Links for Tuesday, as the Red Sox and Braves try to fend off several wild card challengers…

  • Red Sox GM Theo Epstein failed to accumulate the necessary pitching depth, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Epstein has become a popular target this month, but the criticism holds more water for me if the author was pointing out the team's depth issues before the season or in July.  Morosi, to his credit, questioned Boston's rotation in April.
  • On a similar note, the John Lackey contract looks ugly right now.  But it wasn't regarded that way when Lackey signed in December of 2009.  In fact, ESPN's Jayson Stark did a poll of "20 wise baseball men" prior to the 2010 season, and Lackey's contract was voted the best signing of the offseason (right before Chone Figgins).  
  • White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen hopes to learn about his future before leaving for a trip to Spain in early October, he told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.  Guillen has a year left on his contract, so the White Sox don't necessarily have to follow that timeline.
  • Scott Boras will have lunch with the Giants' Carlos Beltran today to determine the right fielder's free agency goals, he told the Associated Press yesterday at the Moneyball premiere.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney tells stories of how Padres GM Randy Smith came to acquire Trevor Hoffman from the Marlins, and how the Yankees considered trading Mariano Rivera before they realized what they had.

AL East Notes: Epstein, Crawford, Yankees

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The Rays and Orioles are technically division rivals, but tonight they're on the same side. Baltimore beat the Red Sox in the first game of today's double-header and Rays fans are hoping for a second Orioles win this evening. A Baltimore sweep would shrink the gap between Tampa Bay and Boston to one game in the American League Wild Card race. Here are today's links…

  • Congratulations to Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, who became the all-time saves leader when he shut the Twins down earlier today. The future Hall of Famer now has 602 career saves.
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan says signing John Lackey was the worst blunder of Theo Eptsein's career and argues that the Red Sox GM deserves all of the criticism he is facing for Boston's fading pitching staff.
  • Not sure whether you agree with Passan? Check out every move Epstein has made with the help of our Transaction Tracker.
  • Carl Crawford, who signed a $142MM contract with the Red Sox last offseason, apologized to fans for his season in a blog post at ESPNBoston.com. "I'm sorry for the year I've had,” he said. “You guys have been really supportive and I appreciate that. Hopefully when we get into these playoffs, I can be the real Carl Crawford that I know I am."
  • Ray Bartoszek, a former commodities trader, bought a minority share of the Yankees, according to the Star-Ledger.

AL East Notes: Aviles, Rays, Blue Jays, Jenks

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Mariano Rivera recorded his 601st career save yesterday against the Blue Jays, tying Trevor Hoffman for the all-time mark. John Harper of the New York Daily News writes that, while Joe Girardi isn't about to keep Rivera out of a save situation if one arises today, it would be nice if the Yankees didn't have to use their closer again in Toronto. New York begins an eight-game homestand tomorrow, which could allow Rivera to notch the record-setting save in Yankee Stadium. Here are the rest of this morning's AL East notes:

  • Mike Aviles told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he asked the Royals to trade him at the deadline this season, knowing he wasn't a part of the team's long-term plans. Aviles has been an important acquisition for the Red Sox, given the injuries to Jed Lowrie and Kevin Youkilis. The utility man has hit .361/.373/.458 in part-time action since arriving in Boston.
  • Within the same piece, Rosenthal notes that you could argue the Rays should have added a bat at the deadline, given their current presence in the Wild Card race. However, the club was 8 1/2 games out of the Wild Card at the time, and didn't want to compromise their team defense for an offensive upgrade.
  • John Tomase discusses Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays in a piece for the Boston Herald, and the Jays GM offers a few interesting quotes. Anthopoulos says the primary challenge of the AL East isn't going up against the massive payrolls of the Red Sox and Yankees, but rather competing with a handful of smart general managers who know how to run a team.
  • More Anthopolous, on the most efficient way for the Blue Jays to add talent: "The trade route where we are right now is important for us. It's going to be a big part of what we're doing and it is. Free agency is the last route we want to go. At some point we'll have to start delving into it a little more, but I still want to try to avoid it at all costs. If we try to do this through the draft, it's going to be a while. And it's not going to work and we're not going to get it to time properly."
  • Bobby Jenks tells Michael Vega of the Boston Globe that he's disappointed the first season of his two-year deal with the Red Sox turned out so poorly. He's optimistic about being ready for Spring Training and being able to contribute in 2012 though. The reliever says that although he hasn't undergone his spine surgery yet, the doctors are talking about "weeks and not months" for the recovery.

Rosenthal On Votto, Epstein, Sabathia, Beinfest

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 Let's take a look at this week's edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • The Reds aren't going to shop Joey Votto but they'll at least listen to trade inquiries this winter.  Cincinnati could come back with Votto for one more year at $9.5MM and play Yonder Alonso in left field but Votto's salary rises to $17MM in 2013 and Alonso's best position is first base.  Reds owner Bob Castellini won't want to trade Votto, just as he didn't want to deal veterans at the deadline.  However, the Reds would be looking at much more value for Votto at two years away from free agency rather than one year away.
  • The Red Sox will likely avoid a historic collapse but if they don't, all bets are off.  Manager Terry Francona is technically unsigned for next season as they hold options on him for the next two seasons.  Meanwhile, GM Theo Epstein might want to leave for the Cubs regardless, if the Cubs give him more power in baseball operations.  The question still remains whether BoSox owner John Henry would allow him to talk with one year left on his contract.
  • It would be interesting to see how the Yankees react if, as expected, C.C. Sabathia opts out of his contract.  The Bombers have had contentious negotiations with key players in years past, but Sabathia is different.  The hurler is only 31-years-old and coming off of three outstanding years in New York.  If the talks to turn ugly, he'll certainly have other options.
  • Marlins GM Larry Beinfest has let it be known that he would like a chance at the Cubs position.  Rival executives say that Beinfest is unhappy with the recent reassignment of Jim Fleming the increasing involvement of owner Jeffrey Loria.  The Cubs' level of interest in Beinfest is currently unknown.

Quick Hits: Astros, Yankees, Mets, Pujols, Fielder

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Some links on this Saturday afternoon..

  • Astros GM Ed Wade isn't sure yet if pitching coach Doug Brocail will return next year, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  Brocail retired after the 2009 season and was working as a special assistant to Wade this year when he took over as pitching coach when Brad Arnsberg was let go in June.
  • Both the Yankees and Mets will have to start making some critical decisions about which prospects they need to protect ahead of the Rule V draft this winter, writes Tim Bontemps of the New York Post.  It seems likely that the Mets will roll the dice and leave once-promising right-hander Brad Holt unprotected while the Bombers could leave switch-pitcher Pat Venditte exposed.
  • With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder both hitting the free agent market this winter, the battle between agents Dan Lozano and Scott Boras will be fun to watch, writes Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  • Giants managing partner and CEO Bill Neukom wanted the team to take a more patient approach to hitting when he took over but Scott Ostler of the San Francisco Chronicle says that never came to be.

Martin Expresses Interest In Staying With Yankees

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A month ago, Ben Nicholson-Smith identified Russell Martin as a non-tendered player who was contributing with a new team. If Martin gets his way, he'll be with that new team in 2012 as well. The backstop told George A. King III of The New York Post that he's interested in staying with the Yankees beyond the season.

"If you are asking me if I want to be here, yes. But they are in a nice position with the quality of kids they have," said Martin, referring to catching prospects Jesus Montero and Austin Romine, both of whom are with the big league team as September call-ups.

Martin is under team control next year, but that's hardly a guarantee he'll return. The Dodgers cut him loose last offseason because of declining production and a hip injury that ended his season in August. With the Yankees, Martin has hit .236/.322/.410 with 17 homers, more than he hit in 2009 and 2010 combined (12). He's also thrown out 35 of 121 attempted basestealers (28.9%).

Martin is arbitration-eligible for the fourth time this winter as a Super Two player. It's tough to predict his 2012 salary because he's coming off the non-tender, but it could exceed $7MM. The consensus is that Montero isn't a catcher long-term, and Romine has played just six games above Double-A, so there's certainly an opening for Martin on the Yankees roster next season.

Neukom On Sabathia, Pujols, Beltran

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The Giants announced this week that managing partner and CEO Bill Neukom is going to retire at the end of the year, but that hasn't stopped him from weighing in on some of the offseason's free agents. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle has the latest (all links go to Twitter):

  • Neukom says the Giants “loved” C.C. Sabathia when he hit free agency after the 2008 season. ”I honestly believe he had a serious interest in coming with us." The Giants didn’t sign Sabathia since they weren’t prepared to pay "for years beyond which the time we think you’re not worth that amount of money.”
  • Sabathia can opt out of his seven-year, $161MM deal this offseason. 
  • Neukom weighed in on Albert Pujols with openness that MLB executives rarely show when publicly discussing other teams. “Is he worth $30MM per year for ten years?,” Neukom asked. “The Yankees don’t need a first baseman. Nor does Boston. Maybe the Cubs. Maybe the Dodgers. But is there a wealthy team that can afford to do that, say to themselves he will not be worth it for the last three or four years of a ten-year deal but we can absorb that?”
  • I examined the market for Pujols and Prince Fielder last week.
  • Neukom guesses that agent Scott Boras will ask for a five or six-year deal for Carlos Beltran. The switch-hitting outfielder says he’d consider returning to the Giants if they find a way to add some offense.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Rivera, Johnson, Andino

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The Rays and Red Sox begin a four-game set at Fenway Park tonight that could very well determine the AL Wild Card.  Here are some items about both clubs, plus the rest of the AL East…

  • Trades and middling draft results have robbed the Red Sox of pitching depth, opines ESPN's Jim Bowden (Insider subscription required).  With more good arms in the system, Bowden argues that Boston could have had reinforcements ready to step in when Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz hit the DL, or could've used those young prospects to acquire a more reliable starter than Erik Bedard.
  • The Blue Jays will at least check in on Jonathan Papelbon this winter, writes MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm, though Chisholm notes that it isn't Alex Anthopoulos' style to sign relievers to expensive, multiyear contracts.  Chisholm also looks at Frank Francisco and Adam Loewen's respective futures in Toronto as part of the mailbag piece — Chisholm thinks Francisco will leave, while Loewen is out of options and will probably only have a spot on the team if the Jays cut Mark Teahen.
  • Mariano Rivera is a Yankees legend today, but Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York looks at how 20 years ago, the Sandman wasn't even the most regarded prospect in his own family.  "If you turn the clock back and you ask who was the best Rivera in our system, it was Ruben," says Brian Cashman.  "Mariano was just known as Ruben’s cousin.''
  • Writing for USA Today, Patrick DiCaprio looks at how Orioles reliever Jim Johnson fits the prototype of a closer.  Johnson could very well finish games next season given that Baltimore seems to have lost patience with Kevin Gregg, though we've also heard that the O's have explored converting Johnson to a starter.  You can keep track of Baltimore's late-game situation all winter long at MLBTR's sister site, Closer News.
  • Robert Andino has finally gotten the chance to show he belongs in the Majors, writes Brittany Ghiroli for MLB.com.  The versatile infielder has definitely earned a roster spot with the Orioles for next year.
  • The Rays' somewhat surprising performance in 2011 makes it clear that they will be contenders again in 2012 and possibly for years to come, writes Rob Neyer.

Pedro Feliciano’s 2012 Season, Career In Question

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Pedro Feliciano underwent surgery on his left rotator cuff last week, a procedure that will threaten the southpaw's 2012 season, reports MLB.com's Bryan Hoch and Taylor Soper.  Yankees manager Joe Girardi said he "would be surprised if [Feliciano] pitched next year" and also noted that it would be difficult for Feliciano to recover from such an operation at age 35.

Feliciano has missed the entire season after suffering a torn capsule in his throwing shoulder in April.  He passed on surgery following the advice of Dr. James Andrews, though a summer of rehab assignments failed to get Feliciano's arm back in shape.  Feliciano threw just one professional inning in 2011, for the Yankees' Rookie League team — obviously not what New York expected when it signed Feliciano to a two-year, $8MM contract in December.  The team holds a $4.5MM option on Feliciano for 2013 that seems like a lock to be declined, so Feliciano will likely never pitch for the Bronx Bombers.

Back in April, Brian Cashman said the Mets "abused" Feliciano, as the left-hander led the NL in appearances in each of the previous three seasons.  Despite these concerns, the Yankees found no issue in Feliciano's medicals and Feliciano himself said he enjoyed pitching on a regular basis.

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