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Nationals Agree To Re-Sign Stephen Strasburg

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4:02pm: The Nationals have announced the agreement. The deal also comes with incentives, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Strasburg will earn $500K for an MVP win, $250K for a second-place finish, $350K for third, $100K for fourth and $75K for fifth. His Cy Young incentives are the same. He’d take home $250K for another World Series MVP. An All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger are each worth another $100K apiece.

1:48pm: The defending World Series champs and the game’s biggest agent have kicked off the Winter Meetings with a bang. The Nationals have reached agreement on a new contract with star righty Stephen Strasburg, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. It’s a stunning seven-year deal that guarantees the Scott Boras client a whopping $245MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The sides will announce the deal this afternoon.

If there was ever any doubt as to the stability of the relationship between the Nats and the player once hailed as a franchise savior, this contract resolves it.  There’s a full no-trade clause, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. The contract does not come with options or opt-outs, per Tim Brown of Yahoo (via Twitter). About $80MM of the money is deferred, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds on Twitter, but they will include interest, per Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal (Twitter link).

We had come to expect a record-setting pitching deal this winter, but not from Strasburg. Top-of-the-market ace Gerrit Cole had long figured to top David Price for the biggest-ever rotation contract. He’s certain still to do so … quite likely by far, far more than had been anticipated. Strasburg has now blown the prior $217MM record out of the water. It also tops the average-annual value record held previously by Zack Greinke.

Way back when the 2019 season began, it was highly questionable whether Strasburg would even opt out of the four years and $100MM left on his prior extension with the Nationals. The former top overall draft choice ended up turning in a huge regular season followed by an iconic postseason, leading the Nats to a long-awaited World Series berth. It was everything that he and the organization dreamed of when he was selected first overall back in 2009 and then made a stirring debut in 2010. That he navigated a devastating Tommy John surgery, shutdown controversy, and various travails thereafter only made it all the more meaningful.

It has been a rollercoaster for the Nats faithful, which watched Bryce Harper head to the rival Phillies last winter. Strasburg is back … but what about Anthony Rendon, who was the third consecutive first-round pick that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo knocked out of the park. Ownership has said it doesn’t believe it can sign both Strasburg and Rendon. While that claim is worth questioning, it’s also quite a bit more understandable now that we know just how much the club had to pay to retain the former.

We’ll have to wait and see whether the Nats continue to pursue Rendon. But there’s an obvious impact on his market, which includes quite a few other major bidders. It’s also not difficult to see the connections between Strasburg’s signing and the still-developing rotation market. Pressure soared on the pitching market and the NL East arms race when the Phillies inked Zack Wheeler to a $118MM pact, snatching him from the Mets. With multiple teams pushing for Cole, and some viewing Strasburg as a major fallback target, the Nats acted decisively to bring back their ace. Having now secured larger-than-expected early strikes for Strasburg and Mike Moustakas, Boras can turn to ratcheting up the bidding on Cole, Rendon, and his other major open-market clients.

It’s quite something to see a contract of this magnitude for a 31-year-old pitcher just one winter removed from a spate of high-end hurlers inked extensions. Two aces in a similar age bracket — Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale — received much more modest guarantees. Those pitchers were obviously protecting against the risks of pitching in the majors, but they were also surely cognizant of a frigid free agent market. Now, it seems the thaw may be on … though how far it will extend remains to be seen.

To be sure, Strasburg not only ensconced himself in Nats lore but reaffirmed his top-shelf status in 2019. He topped two hundred innings for the second time in his career and worked to a 3.32 ERA that may actually have belied the true quality of his effort. With 10.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a 51.1% groundball rate, he showed all the skills that help a pitcher generate outs. Strasburg graded at a 3.25 FIP, 3.17 xFIP, and 3.49 SIERA in 2019. His 13.4% swinging-strike rate was a career high, though he’s now averaging about two ticks less on his fastball than he did for much of his career. And he showed yet more in a blistering run through the postseason, when he allowed just eight earned runs with a ridiculous 47:4 K/BB ratio over 36 1/3 innings, topping it all off with a World Series MVP.

The risks are equally obvious. Though he has avoided another devastating arm injury, Strasburg averaged 145 innings annually between 2015-18 and has had arm scares throughout that time. (He also carried a 3.27 ERA in that span.) He’s now under contract through his age-37 campaign.

While the Nats are obviously pleased with the output they’ve received to this point, having now twice inked Strasburg to massive contracts, they’re still banking on quite a bit more in the second half of his career. The club has now expanded its already huge commitment to its trio of high-end starters, with Strasburg now topping the big salaries promised to Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Washington’s 2020 prospects will be determined in no small part by the way in which these hurlers bounce back from a Herculean postseason effort.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Adam Jones Weighing Move To Japan

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Veteran outfielder Adam Jones may be headed for a late-career stint in Japan. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, via Twitter, Jones is in talks with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Orix Buffaloes on a contract.

Notably, the concept under consideration is a multi-year arrangement. That’s a rarity for players contemplating a westward crossing of the Pacific, though NPB organizations have certainly agreed to multi-year pacts to retain players.

Jones, 34, would become one of the biggest MLB stars to play in Japan if he decides to make the move. Kevin Youkilis was another major player who headed to the NPB to cap off a memorable career, though his experience did not go as hoped and he played in only 21 games there before retiring.

It’s tough to imagine that Jones is receiving truly satisfactory interest stateside. The longtime Orioles star ended up landing a $3MM deal with the Diamondbacks last year after languishing on the market. he appeared in 137 games and received 528 plate appearances in Arizona, but struggled to a .260/.313/.414 batting line.

Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler

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DECEMBER 9: This deal is now official, per a team announcement.

DECEMBER 4: The Phillies have made the biggest free-agent splash of the offseason to date, as they reached a reported five-year, $118MM agreement with free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler on Wednesday afternoon. The contract is still pending a physical. Wheeler is represented by Jet Sports Management.

Wheeler, 29, has been arguably the most in-demand pitcher on the free agent market early in the offseason. While he’s regarded as the third-best arm on the market behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, that duo’s sky-high earning power priced out a number of pitching-needy teams from the outset. Wheeler, however, has been viewed as a more affordable pitcher with high-end stuff — one whom many believe can still take another step forward in the years to come.

Of course, that’s not to say that the current iteration of Wheeler isn’t a quality arm; he very much is. Over his past 55 Major League starts, the right-hander has worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. He’s distanced himself from Tommy John surgery and the ensuing complications that wiped out nearly two full seasons of his career, combining to make 60 starts dating back to Opening Day 2018.

Wheeler was also the second-hardest-throwing starter on the open market, with his career-best 96.7 mph average heater trailing only the aforementioned Cole. Beyond that, he possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast). Given that he’s played in front of one the worst defenses in the game over the past couple of seasons, there’s a belief that he could excel with a change of scenery, although it’s of course worth noting that the Philadelphia defense has had its own share of struggles over that same time.

Rotation help has been the clear top priority for the Phillies this winter, as their collective group of starters was a decidedly subpar group in 2019. Philadelphia entered the season with Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta anchoring the starting staff. And, after a 2018-19 offseason that focused largely on augmenting the lineup, the Phils leaned heavily on younger, inexperienced arms like Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez to round out the rotation.

Of that trio, only Eflin yielded any real dividends, however. The 25-year-old proved a serviceable fourth starter with a 4.13 ERA over 28 starts (32 total appearances), while Pivetta and Velasquez combined for an ERA well north of 5.00. Meanwhile, Arrieta struggled through his worst performance since his breakout and ultimately underwent season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow. Even Nola, who finished third in 2018 NL Cy Young voting, took a notable step back in 2019. The end result was a Phillies starting staff that finished 17th in ERA (4.64), 24th in FIP (4.91) and 16th in xFIP (4.59) last year.

Wheeler will now slot into the Phillies’ rotation alongside Nola, Eflin and Arrieta — with the hope being that the removal of the bone spur through which Arrieta pitched in 2019 will help to bring about a rejuvenation of sorts. There’s still room for another rotation addition, to be sure, and there’s also room on the payroll to make that a reality. Before agreeing to terms with Wheeler, the Phils’ payroll checked in a bit shy of $150MM (including projected arbitration salaries). They’ll see Arrieta, David Robertson and the small portion of the Jay Bruce contract they’re paying all come off the books next season, lending some long-term flexibility even in spite of substantial commitments to Wheeler, Bryce Harper and others.

Earlier this offseason, Philadelphia general manager Matt Klentak voiced a preference to eventually move away from signing players who’ve rejected qualifying offers, but it appears that was far from a mandate, as the Phillies will now do so for a third consecutive winter. Signing Wheeler will cost Philadelphia its second-round pick and $500K of international bonus allotments. The Mets, meanwhile, will pick up a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B — likely in the 75 to 80 range of next year’s draft. They’ll also, of course, now be on the lookout for another starting pitcher — although they were never viewed as a serious player to re-sign Wheeler.

Geography played a pivotal role in Wheeler’s decision to sign with Philadelphia, it seems. The Athletic’s Marc Carig, who first broke the news, noted in his original report that Wheeler’s fiancee is from nearby New Jersey, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the White Sox’ bid on Wheeler was actually higher than that of the Phillies. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North in Minneapolis tweets that the Twins, too, made a five-year offer to Wheeler and that money wasn’t the ultimate factor in rejecting that bid. Presumably, an offer that blew Philadelphia’s out of the water could’ve swayed Wheeler to stray from the East Coast, but it seems that family considerations won the day when final bids wound up comparable.

In the end, Wheeler drew varying levels of interest from the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Astros, Rangers, Yankees and Blue Jays before his agreement with the Phils. That level of interest was largely foreseeable, and the fit with the Phillies has long been a particularly sensible one, as was predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list at the start of the offseason. The choice of destination proved to be spot on, but the considerable interest in Wheeler ultimately pushed his guarantee north of the five years and $100MM estimate put forth at that time.

Marc Carig of The Athletic broke news of the agreement (via Twitter). Bob Nightengale of USA Today, ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia all reported financial details on the contract (all links to Twitter).

Steve Pearce “Unofficially Retired”

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Hard-hitting utilityman Steve Pearce appears to be putting the wraps on his playing days. He tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he’s “unofficially retired” from baseball.

Pearce surpassed ten years of MLB service last year, as Bradford notes. That entitles him to a full pension, an achievement that once seemed exceptionally unlikely. An eighth-round pick in 2005, Pearce made it to the majors with the Pirates and appeared briefly with the Bucs in five major league campaigns. But he departed the organization with little fanfare and struggled to find a new home elsewhere.

Through 2012, Pearce had managed just 709 MLB plate appearances of 82 OPS+ hitting in stints with four clubs. He showed a bit of life in a 44-game sample in his age-30 season, but still ended up being designated for assignment early in the ensuing campaign.

That’s when Pearce morphed from a little-known 4-A player to a sudden star hitter. He made the unusual decision to reject a late-April claim in order to return to the O’s after the DFA. And then he raked. Pearce finished the 2014 campaign with a .293/.373/.556 batting line and 21 home runs over 383 plate appearances.

Pearce ultimately appeared in 13 MLB campaigns, logging 2,555 plate appearances of .254/.332/.440 hitting. There were some peaks and valleys, and quite a few injury layoffs, along the way. He never once reached 400 plate appearances in a given season. But Pearce will finish off his career having produced solidly above-average offensive numbers.

Never regarded much for his glovework, Pearce nevertheless proved capable of stepping in all over the diamond, allowing teams to shoehorn his bat into the lineup. He saw action at first base, left field, right field, second base, and third base (in that order of frequency).

When he wasn’t working back to health or going through a rough patch, Pearce provided big output at times for the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. He also appeared earlier in his career with the Yankees, making him the rare player to have donned every uniform in a single division. Pearce will no doubt be remembered most in the long haul for his indelible mark on Boston sports history, as his three-homer output in the 2018 World Series earned him an MVP award on the game’s biggest stage.

Pearce returned to the Red Sox in 2019 but struggled badly before back and knee injuries wrecked his season. While he isn’t yet ready to file his paperwork, it seems the 36-year-old won’t actively pursue a job this winter. That’s plenty understandable, as he’d no doubt need to earn his way onto a big-league roster on a minor-league deal. Pearce is to be congratulated for persisting through early-career setbacks and frequent health problems. MLBTR wishes him the best in his future endeavors.

Ted Simmons, Marvin Miller Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame

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Longtime Cardinals catcher Ted Simmons and MLB Players Association executive director Marvin Miller were elected to the Baseball Hall Of Fame, as announced tonight on MLB Network.  Simmons and Miller were inducted via the “Modern Era” veterans committee, a 16-person panel focusing on people whose largest contributions to the sport fell between 1970 and 1987.

Each offseason, a different committee meets to examine a different era of baseball’s history and consider any important figures for enshrinement into Cooperstown, including players who didn’t reach the 75% threshold on the writers’ ballots.  This year’s panel consisted of, as always, a mixture of former players, executives, owners, journalists, and historians — Sandy Alderson, George Brett, Rod Carew, Bill Center, Dave Dombrowski, Dennis Eckersley, David Glass, Steve Hirdt, Walt Jocketty, Doug Melvin, Eddie Murray, Jack O’Connell, Tracy Ringolsby, Terry Ryan, Ozzie Smith, and Robin Yount.

Twelve of 16 votes were required for induction, and each Modern Era committee member could vote for a maximum of four candidates.  Simmons (13 votes) led the field while Miller hit the 12-vote minimum on the dot.  For Simmons, today’s news represents some relief after his near-miss during the last Modern Era ballot in 2017.  Simmons fell only a single vote short of the twelve required for entry into Cooperstown (Miller was also on that 2017 ballot, receiving seven votes).

Of the other eight players on this year’s ballot, Dwight Evans (eight votes), Dave Parker (seven votes), Steve Garvey (six votes), and Lou Whitaker (six votes) all made particularly strong showings, while Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Thurman Munson, and Dale Murphy each received three or fewer votes.  These eight players will again be eligible for consideration during the next Modern Era vote in December 2022.

Simmons lasted just one year on the writers’ ballot, and was removed after failing to achieve the minimum five percent of the vote.  It was surprising both then and now that Simmons’ career didn’t make much of an impact on the writers, given that he has long been regarded as one of the best-hitting catchers in the history of the sport.  Simmons hit .285/.348/.437 with 248 homers over 21 seasons and 9685 plate appearances from 1968-1988, and he ranks second all-time among all catchers in hits (2472), doubles (483), and RBI (1389).  Over Simmons’ 13 seasons with the Cardinals, five seasons with the Brewers, and three seasons with the Braves, he accumulated eight All-Star appearances.

If Simmons was perhaps overdue after his close call in the 2017 vote, Miller’s induction corrects one of the more glaring omissions from the Hall Of Fame.  While some of the owners and executives who populated various veterans committees over the years weren’t fans of how Miller built and strengthened the MLBPA, there is little doubt that Miller is one of the most influential figures in baseball history.

Serving as the MLBPA’s executive director from 1966-1982, Miller’s tenure saw nothing less than a complete reinvention of the relationship between players and ownership.  The very first Collective Bargaining Agreement between the league and the MLBPA was struck, and the old reserve clause (most famously challenged by Curt Flood) eventually fell by the wayside, paving the way for modern free agency and the current arbitration system.  Player salaries and pensions saw immense growth as the union grew in strength, as Miller brought modern labor practices to a business whose employees previously had little in the way of an organized front to challenge management.

Miller and Simmons will be officially inducted into the Hall Of Fame on July 26, along with any players voted in when the Baseball Writers’ Association Of America reveals its ballot on January 21.

Yankees Reportedly Preparing $245MM Offer To Gerrit Cole

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The Yankees are reportedly working on a record-setting seven-year, $245MM contract offer to free-agent right-hander Gerrit Cole, according to Bob Klapisch of the New York Times. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand report (Twitter links) that while the team has not yet officially extended the offer, they aren’t far off from doing so.

If signed, the contract would establish a new benchmark for free-agent pitchers, both in terms of overall value and average annual value; Cole’s $245MM over seven years—a $35MM AAV—would surpass David Price’s record $217MM deal with the Red Sox, as well as Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM AAV from the Diamondbacks.

With Cole and representative Scott Boras requesting yesterday that interested teams submit initial offers, the Cole saga is far from over, and there’s a chance that the Yankees’ bid will be one-upped by another suitor, particularly the Dodgers or Angels, who have been named the other favorites to land Cole. If those teams opt to go to an eighth or ninth year, the contract value could exceed $280MM or even $300MM, an unprecedented figure for pitchers. Either way, with the bidding war now underway, one thing’s for sure: if the initial offer is already a record deal, Cole and Boras are certainly sitting pretty.

And though the contract offer is merely that—an offer—the sheer magnitude of the opening bid is indicative of the Yankees’ commitment to go into the spring with this offseason’s crown jewel. With reports suggesting that ownership has authorized a steadfast pursuit of Cole and that the team has halted other business as it focuses entirely on the 29-year-old, there seems to be a heightened sense of urgency surrounding the Yankees’ courtship of Cole, a Steinbrenner trademark that has been absent for several years.

That said, they won’t be without their share of competition. The aforementioned financial powerhouses in Los Angeles—though their interest hasn’t received the same attention as that of New York—no doubt have an appetite for Cole. After seven consecutive division titles that have yet to produce a World Series banner, the Dodgers’ urgency may well rival that of the Yankees. And while record-breaking contracts are decidedly not a hallmark of the Andrew Friedman-run Dodgers, it bears mentioning that their payroll commitments are expected to thin out considerably by 2021 and 2022, affording increased flexibility to take on an obligation of monumental proportions.

The Angels, for their part, haven’t played October baseball since 2014 and have long been rumored a destination for Cole given his SoCal roots. They boast the sport’s finest player in Mike Trout, who is under contract for the next decade-plus and has played just three playoff games through his age-27 season. The last several years of Angels baseball have been defined by a notorious lack of production (and health) in the starting rotation, a department in which forward progress may already be in order for 2020, what with the acquisition of Dylan Bundy and the potential return of Shohei Ohtani, not to mention the addition of reputable pitching coach Mickey Callaway. General manager Billy Eppler, entering the final year of his contract, has limited time to produce a genuine improvement in the win-loss department, and adding Cole may be the perfect splash to improve the franchise’s fortunes.

Rangers To Sign Jordan Lyles

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The Rangers have reached an agreement with free-agent right-hander Jordan Lyles, pending a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. It’ll be a two-year, $16MM contract for the Ballengee Group client, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. Lyles did not crack the top 50 of MLB’s best available free agents entering the offseason, making this significant payday all the more surprising.

This is the second major starting addition this offseason for the Rangers, who previously signed fellow righty Kyle Gibson to a three-year, $28MM deal. He and Lyles will presumably join high-end holdovers Mike Minor and Lance Lynn to comprise four-fifths of the Rangers’ rotation in 2020, while Kolby Allard figures to have the inside track on the last spot in their staff.

This type of deal for Lyles would have been unthinkable just a couple months ago. The 29-year-old struggled through the first half of 2019 as a member of the Pirates, with whom he posted a dismal 5.36 ERA across 82 1/3 innings. But Lyles turned his season (and maybe his career) around after the Brewers acquired him from the Pirates before the July 31 trade deadline. The Milwaukee version of Lyles put up a stellar 2.45 ERA over 58 2/3 innings, though the rest of his numbers weren’t really all that impressive. Lyles logged 9.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 4.79 FIP as a Pirate, and he recorded 8.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 4.42 FIP after heading to the Brewers.

Lyles will have to keep proving he’s for real, but his pact with the Rangers continues a nomadic career. A first-round pick of the rival Astros in 2008, Lyles pitched for five different major league clubs before agreeing to sign with the Rangers. As that fact suggests, Lyles hasn’t been particularly effective in the majors, but the Rangers are prepared to bank on him as a solid mid- to back-end starter over the next couple years. And the Lyles pickup further indicates the Rangers are hoping to break their three-year playoff drought in 2020, when they’ll open a new stadium. He and Gibson are now in tow, and Texas has shown interest in top free agents such as third basemen Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson. They were also part of the sweepstakes for Zack Wheeler, Cole Hamels and Howie Kendrick before they signed elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays, Padres Announce Tommy Pham-Hunter Renfroe Trade

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DECEMBER 6, 6:32pm: The trade has been announced. The Rays will acquire a player to be named later to go with Renfroe and Edwards, with the Padres picking up Pham and Cronenworth.

2:00am: It appears the Rays will also land another prospect in the deal, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com.

12:27am: The Padres will also acquire minor leaguer Jake Cronenworth in the trade, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports. The 25-year-old Cronenworth enjoyed an eminently successful year at the Triple-A level in 2019, when he hit .334/.429/.520 with 10 HRs and 12 steals in 406 trips to the plate. Cronenworth’s primarily a middle infielder, but the 2015 seventh-rounder can also pitch. He put up 7 1/3 scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and four hits allowed at the minors’ highest level in 2019, though the righty hurler did surrender eight walks.

DECEMBER 5, 10:55pm: The teams have agreed to the trade, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. However, it won’t be announced until medical reviews of all the involved players are completed Friday.

10:42pm: The Rays and Padres are deep into talks on a trade that would see Tampa Bay outfielder Tommy Pham and San Diego outfielder Hunter Renfroe switch clubs, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Rays would also land Single-A shortstop Xavier Edwards, while the Padres would pick up an unnamed prospect to go with Pham.

This is already the second major outfield trade of the winter for the Padres, who acquired Trent Grisham from the Brewers last week. Pham is far more proven than Grisham, as the former is coming off yet another outstanding season at the plate. The 31-year-old Pham, whose first full season came with the Cardinals in 2017, has somewhat quietly been among the majors’ most effective outfielders over the past three campaigns. He has totaled 13.6 fWAR, including 3.3 in 2019, dating back to his initial full season. Typically one to post high on-base percentages, Pham’s coming off a year in which he slashed .273/.369/.450 with 21 home runs and 25 stolen bases across 654 plate appearances.

In Pham, the Padres – led by under-fire general manager A.J. Preller – are getting a player with two years’ control remaining. Pham, who’s slated to earn a projected $8.6MM next season, will join Grisham, Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, Franchy Cordero and prospect Taylor Trammell as the Padres’ most prominent outfielders.

While Pham looks like an intriguing addition for the Padres, they’re giving up a powerful and affordable outfielder at the same time. Renfroe, soon to turn 28, entered the bigs as a first-round pick of the Padres in 2013. He has hit at least 26 homers in each season since debuting in earnest in 2017, including 33 this year, though injuries helped undermine him after a hot start in 2019. Renfroe wound up slashing .216/.289/.489 over 494 PA, and he earned elite marks in 998 innings divided among all three outfield positions (22 Defensive Runs Saved, 10.1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

Never a team to boast a high payroll, the Rays are saving quite a bit of money in this swap. Renfroe should only make around $3.4MM next season, which will be his first of four arbitration-eligible years. He’ll presumably accompany Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier as the Rays’ starting outfielders in 2020, thus replacing free agent Avisail Garcia.

Along with Renfroe, the Rays are getting a quality farmhand in Edwards, a 2018 first-rounder whom FanGraphs ranked as the Padres’ 14th-best prospect in a loaded Padres system back in May. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote then that Edwards “is a high-effort offensive catalyst who knifes at defenses with line drives and well-placed bunts,” adding that second base or center field could be in his future. The 20-year-old divided 2019 between both middle infield positions and batted .322/.375/.396 with just a single homer in 596 PA at the Single-A and High-A levels.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Re-Sign Brad Brach

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2:55pm: Brach’s signing has been announced. The club designated righty Chris Flexen for assignment to create roster space.

1:13pm: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Brad Brach, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’s said to be promised a $850K salary for the 2020 season (on top of the $500K he’s already owed by the Cubs). Brach is a client of Big League Management.

While the single-season earnings are relatively modest, the deal does include a $1.25MM player option that provides a backstop for the 33-year-old reliever. The price tag goes up based upon the number of games he appears in. ($125K at 20 games; $350K apiece upon his 30th, 35th, 40th, 50th, 60th, and 65th appearances.) There are incentives in both years of the contract, also tied to appearances (beginning with his 50th).

Brach has deep ties to the area, having grown up and played his college ball in New Jersey. It was seen as something of a homecoming when he landed in Queens in the middle of the 2019 season. As I noted in previewing the Mets’ offseason, it seemed sensible to imagine a reunion.

Both team and player obviously enjoyed the experience. For the second-straight season, Brach turned around suboptimal results after swapping jerseys in the middle of the year. In 39 2/3 innings with the Cubs, Brach limped to a 6.13 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and an alarming 6.4 BB/9. But with the Mets, he allowed six earned runs in 14 2/3 frames while posting a strong 15:3 K/BB ratio.

What changed? Brach was pumping his customary 95 mph for most of his tenure in Chicago and continued upon moving to New York. But there was some chatter that Brach had been tipping his changeup. And pitch-tracking software identified a major shift in usage in favor of a cut fastball. The new approach worked, at least in a short sample.

For the Mets, this move plugs one bullpen opening with a known quantity who has late-inning experience. Brach is now a few years removed from his best years in Baltimore, but this seems like a nice price tag for the veteran. The Mets will still need to look for creative ways of boosting their relief unit.

Rangers Sign Kyle Gibson

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Dec. 6: The Rangers have announced the deal. Their 40-man roster is up to 39 players.

Dec. 5: The official price tag is $28MM in guaranteed money over three years, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links) with $3MM more available to Gibson in incentives.  The front-loaded deal will pay Gibson $11MM in 2020, $10MM in 2021, and $7MM in 2022.

Nov. 27: The Rangers are poised to make their first big addition of the winter, as they’ve reportedly agreed to a three-year, $30MM pact with free-agent right-hander Kyle Gibson. The agreement is pending completion of a physical. Gibson is a client of Rowley Sports Management.

Assuming the physical checks out, the agreement represents an important early marker on the market for starters. There’s a bevy of hurlers and quite a few teams working on matches at the outset of free agency. Gibson ranked 19th on MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents.

The reported three-year, $30MM term hews closely to the model that the Texas organization has adopted with Mike Minor and Lance Lynn in recent offseasons: identify an upside starter and pay a slight premium in terms of years in order to lure him into the fold. The total outlay doesn’t represent a large-scale risk for a team with the Rangers’ payroll track record — particularly with a new stadium in the offing in 2020. That said, Gibson isn’t exactly a sure bet to break out in the same manner as Minor and Lynn have in Arlington.

At 32 years of age, Gibson is older than many first-time free-agent pitchers — and not because he signed a contract extension that delayed his path to the open market. Injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery, delayed the former Mizzou star and first-round pick’s path to the big leagues. He didn’t dbut until he was on the cusp of his 26th birthday and didn’t pitch a full season in the Majors until he was indeed 26.

Gibson showed real promise with a strong full season of work in 2015 before turning in matching 5.07 ERAs in both 2016 and 2017. He turned the corner in 2018, when he ran up a 3.62 ERA over 196 2/3 innings. His 2019 results are disappointing by comparison. After a late lull, he finished with a 4.84 ERA in 160 frames. Those results, it should be noted, can in some ways be attributed to recent health troubles — though none involving his arm. Rather, Gibson lost roughly 25 pounds last winter due to a bout of e-coli, and he was never fully able to put the weight back on and build up to full strength. Late in the season, he missed time due to further gastrointestinal issues when he diagnosed with ulcerative colitis.

All that said, it’s worth drilling down beneath the surface-level numbers with Gibson even more so than with most free agents. The lanky 6’6″ righty struck out exactly one hitter for every inning he pitched and posted a career-high 13.1% swinging-strike rate in 2019, and he carried a characteristically strong 51.4% ground-ball rate.

Gibson has also taken a major step forward with his slider in recent seasons; what was already an above-average pitch for much of his career generated a career-best 26.7 percent swinging-strike rate over the past two years. Gibson’s changeup, too, has been an outstanding offering at times and has generated a near-60 percent grounder rate dating back to Opening Day 2018. Combined with a fastball that has averaged 93.6 mph over the past two seasons, Gibson is armed with a quality three-pitch mix — even if his four-seamer isn’ta swing-and-miss offering at all.

The big question from a performance standpoint is the long ball. Gibson has always been a bit prone to coughing up dingers when hitters manage to put the ball in the air. Last year, he allowed home runs on 20.4 percent of the balls put in the air against him and served up an average of 1.29 big flies per nine innings pitched. He’s also never had particularly strong command of the strike zone, evidenced by a career 3.2 BB/9 mark (identical to his season-long total in 2019).

At a minimum, it seems reasonable to hope that Gibson will settle in as a steady and durable back-of-the-rotation arm — just the sort of piece the Rangers so badly need. That outcome would make this investment something of an overpay, but it’s also easy to see how better health could bring about a Minor/Lynn-esque breakout for Gibson and make his contract look like a similarly savvy bargain pickup for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and his staff.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the two sides were closing in on a deal (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that a deal was in place (via Twitter). Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reported the contract terms (via Twitter).

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