Looking for the best possible hot stove coverage on your phone? Our free Trade Rumors app for iOS and Android has you covered. The app provides a slick mobile experience and features custom notifications by sport, team, or player!
Newsstand
MLB Free Agents – 2017-18 Updated Tracker
Here at MLB Trade Rumors, we’ve been following the hot stove religiously since 2005. MLB free agents have seen a delayed market that may play out largely in the new year, with players such as Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and Eric Hosmer still looking for homes. For anyone looking to keep tabs on who’s signed and who’s still out there, our tracker for MLB free agents is the best on the Internet. It’s constantly updated and lets you filter by tons of criteria, including team, position, signing status, handedness, qualifying offers, years, amounts, and option types. Check it out today!
Brewers Sign Jhoulys Chacin
TODAY: The contract is now official. It’s for $15.5MM, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (Twitter links), with a $1.5MM signing bonus and consecutive salaries of $8MM and $6MM.
YESTERDAY, 1:49pm: The sides are working to finalize a two-year pact for something approaching $8MM annually, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). That’s right around the contract value that MLBTR suggested entering the winter.
11:19am: The Brewers are closing in on a contract with free agent righty Jhoulys Chacin, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Terms of the prospective deal are not known at this time. Chacin is a client of the Legacy Agency.
Chacin, 30 next month, is fresh off one of the best seasons of his career, having notched a 3.89 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 49.1 percent ground-ball rate over the life of 180 1/3 innings with the Padres, who signed him to a modest one-year commitment last offseason. Chacin’s strong output in 2017 positions him to handily top the $1.75MM guarantee he received in San Diego last winter. He’d join a Brewers rotation that will be without top starter Jimmy Nelson for a yet-undetermined portion of the 2018 campaign following September shoulder surgery.
Assuming the deal is ultimately completed, Chacin will join Chase Anderson and Zach Davies in the Milwaukee rotation, with Josh Hader, Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff and Junior Guerra among the other candidates vying for opportunities to start. Chacin may not bring significant upside to the table, but he’s been a durable mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons and should help to stabilize a group that carried significant questions about the number of innings it could be reasonably expected to provide to manager Craig Counsell.
Chacin’s solid 2017 season did produce its fair share of skeptics — most notably owing to his significant home/road splits. In 100 1/3 innings at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Chacin logged a sensational 1.79 ERA, but that number spiked to a ghastly 6.59 in 80 road innings. Chacin also dominated right-handed hitters to the tune of a .213/.284/.318 opponents’ slash line, while lefties posted a much more adept .251/.356/.433 slash against him.
The move to a more hitter-friendly Miller Park, then, will undoubtedly raise some questions. However, Chacin enjoyed success earlier in his career in the game’s worst pitching environment, Coors Field, and he’s long limited home runs better than the average pitcher. Despite spending parts of six seasons in Colorado and despite the recent uptick in homers throughout the league, Chacin has averaged just 0.85 HR/9 as a big leaguer.
Newer metrics paint Chacin in a favorable light, as well; Statcast pegs Chacin’s average exit velocity on balls in the air (91.3 mph) and overall exit velocity (85.4 mph) among the weakest in the game for qualified pitchers. His .303 xwOBA, while not elite, places him alongside names like Danny Duffy, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner. That’s not to say, of course, that Chacin should be expected to produce at comparable levels to those three starters, but rather that his solid results and overall penchant for weak contact could be more conducive to success than his surface-level home/road splits would suggest.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Acquire Evan Longoria
10:04pm: The Associated Press reports that the Rays will pay $14.5MM to the Giants and are responsible to the $13MM that is yet owed to Span. Specifically, the Rays will pay $2MM to the Giants by the end of 2017 to cover Longoria’s $2MM trade bonus, and they’ll also pay another $3MM by Oct. 31, 2022. The remaining $9.5MM, per the AP report, will be deferred in payments from 2025-29.
In essence, then, the Giants are adding $60.5MM to their long-term ledger in order to acquire the final five years of Longoria’s contract. Moreover, it doesn’t appear that San Francisco will take much of a hit at all in terms of the luxury tax. So, when paired with the shedding of Matt Moore’s contract, the move should afford the team ample opportunity to add at least one outfielder on a multi-year deal while remaining comfortably south of the $197MM luxury tax threshold.
7:30pm: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter) that the Rays will send between $10MM and $15MM to the Giants to cover a portion of Longoria’s remaining $86MM as well as a $2MM trade bonus.
11:51am: The Rays and Giants have agreed to a deal that will send Evan Longoria to San Francisco. Young infielder Christian Arroyo headlines the return, with veteran outfielder Denard Span going along with him to offset some of Longoria’s salary. Young pitchers Stephen Woods and Matt Krook are also bound for the Tampa Bay organization.
In addition to taking on Span’s contract, Tampa Bay will ship an as-yet-unknown amount of money to the Giants. The 32-year-old Longoria is owed another $86MM between now and 2022, including a $5MM buyout on a $13MM option for the 2023 campaign. He will also receive a $2MM assignment bonus.
Just how much of that will end up on the Giants’ books remains to be learned. The precise cash exchange has yet to be reported. Plus, there’s a bit of uncertainty surrounding Span’s future obligations. He is owed $9MM for 2018, along with a $4MM buyout of a $12MM mutual option for the ensuing season. Those obligations seem destined for San Francisco, but it’s not yet clear what’ll happen with the remaining $3MM signing bonus payment owed to Span in one month.
For both organizations, there’s quite a bit of risk in a transaction involving Longoria. The Giants are taking on a high-priced player who struggled to a career-low .261/.313/.424 batting line in 2017 — adding to a collection of costly, aging veterans. But the Rays are parting with the long-time face of the franchise.
If Longo can bounce back, the rewards could be significant. His days of top-level offensive production are likely in the past, but Longoria was a .273/.318/.521 hitter as recently as 2016, when he also swatted 36 home runs. Of course, that followed two less-than-excellent campaigns, so the overall trajectory of late has framed Longoria more as a solidly above-average hitter than an excellent one.
That said, it’s important to bear in mind that Longoria has also long delivered value with his glove. Though Defensive Runs Saved had observed a downturn of late, it credited him with a substantial bounceback (+11 runs) in 2017. Despite the tepid offensive output, then, Longoria contributed 3.6 rWAR and 2.5 fWAR in 2017.
In return for Longoria, the Rays will get not only salary relief but also some young talent. Arroyo is the chief piece here. He had a messy MLB debut and missed time due to injury in 2017, but is only 22 years of age and destroyed Triple-A pitching in a limited sample in the just-completed campaign. In the best-case scenario for the Rays, Arroyo may be able to compete for a job out of camp.
Span’s inclusion is mostly about cost. Still, he remains a useful player even as he closes in on his 34th birthday. In 2017, Span slashed .272/.329/.427 with a dozen home runs over 542 plate appearances. Though he’s no longer really capable of regular time in center and has battled through core and hip injuries in recent years, Span ought to be capable of at least average work in a corner spot and has long been a productive baserunner.
Padding the return here for the Rays are a pair of interesting young arms. As Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs tweets, both have quality stuff that still remains to be harnessed. The 22-year-old Woods just threw 110 innings of 2.95 ERA ball at the Class A level, with 9.2 K/9 against 5.2 BB/9. The righty is considered a relief prospect, as is the left-handed Krook, who will play the coming season at 23 years of age. Krook was unsigned as a first-round pick in 2013 and landed with the Giants as a fourth-rounder in 2016. Over his 91 1/3 frames at High-A in the just-competed season, Krook worked to a 5.12 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9.
For the Rays, this move may be a precursor to further action. The club has been in talks on closer Alex Colome all winter. Many anticipate the team will trade a starter, with star Chris Archer representing the most intriguing possibility. Replacing Longoria with Arroyo means there’s arguably still some excess infield depth to work from. And Span could either be used as a part-time player or sent elsewhere to realize further cost savings.
The Giants, meanwhile, still have needs and will be looking to fill them without going over the luxury tax line. It seems this swap won’t impact their spending capacity too significantly, since the average annual values of the two contracts involved aren’t too far apart. But the move takes one outfielder out of the equation while filling the gap at third, possibly leaving the Giants still searching for both a center and corner piece.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported Longoria was going via trade (via Twitter). Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (links to Twitter) and Robert Murray of Fan Rag (via Twitter) reported the other pieces involved. Murray was first to note on Twitter that the sides had struck a deal, with Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link) and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link) mentioning the key names involved.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets, Sandy Alderson Agree To New Contract
The Mets announced that general manager Sandy Alderson has signed an extension of undisclosed length with the team. “I’m excited that Sandy will continue to lead the organization,” Mets COO Jeff Wilpon says in a press release announcing the extension. Previous reports had indicated that Alderson was likely to sign agree to a new two-year deal following the expiration of his previous contract, which ran through the end of 2017.
“I feel that we have some unfinished business,” says Alderson. “Spring Training is around the corner and our quest to return to the postseason will continue.”
The 70-year-old Alderson is entering his eighth season as general manager of the Mets, having been first appointed to the post as the successor to Omar Minaya after the conclusion of the 2010 campaign. Alderson’s Mets have posted winning records in just two of his seven years at the front office’s helm, though one of those positive seasons was a 90-win effort that saw the Mets advance to the World Series against the Royals in 2015. The Mets advanced to the postseason the following year as well, though quickly ousted by the Giants in the National League Wild Card game.
While Alderson takes his fair share of flak from the Mets’ faithful — some of it deserved — an extension has been rumored to be in the works for awhile now, and he’s made plenty of quality moves to better position the team for success. Alderson was in the GM’s chair when the Mets traded half a season of Carlos Beltran for then-prospect Zack Wheeler, and he opted trade R.A. Dickey to the Blue Jays in a package that netted Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud rather than extend Dickey on the heels of his NL Cy Young victory. Alderson was also the top decision-maker when the Mets traded for and twice re-signed Yoenis Cespedes. Other, lower-profile moves such as opting to keep Lucas Duda over Ike Davis when the Mets had a pair of young, MLB-ready first base options also proved shrewd.
Of course, like any top-level baseball executive, Alderson has had his share of misses in his tenure. Allowing Daniel Murphy to walk and sign with the division-rival Nationals stands out perhaps chief among some missteps for the organization, and the 2017 season in general devolved into somewhat of a circus due to rampant injury issues and poor communication (both with the media and, reportedly, internally as well). Among the most eye-opening issues was the fact that Syndergaard reportedly declined a request to undergo an MRI just days before pitching and ultimately being diagnosed with a partially torn lat muscle.
The Mets are oft-criticized by the New York media for their failures to spend like a large-market powerhouse, though much of that is out of Alderson’s hands. Newsday’s Marc Carig, for instance, recently reported that Alderson and his front office often had to enter the offseason “flying blind,” with little to no information from ownership as to the level at which they’ll be able to spend. The Wilpons drew plenty of criticism over the summer amid the Mets’ medical turmoils, with ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reporting back in May that Jeff Wilpon “meddles” to a considerably greater extent than most owners.
It remains to be seen exactly how long Alderson will remain at the helm, though Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reported back in October that assistant GM John Ricco could be in line to succeed Alderson, whether that happens at the conclusion of the 2019 season or further down the line.
Zach Britton To Undergo Surgery For Ruptured Achilles
10:16am: Britton will undergo surgery tomorrow, per Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com (via Twitter). The hope is the nature of the injury will allow for a somewhat shorter-than-typical recovery time, as Ghiroli tweets.
9:37am: In a stroke of terrible luck for lefty Zach Britton and the Orioles, the closer has suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during offseason workouts, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (links to Twitter). Britton is expected to be sidelined for at least four to six months — a more precise expectation will only be known after surgery — so it seems the best-case scenario will be a return over the summer.
As Rosenthal notes, there are several layers of misery to unpack here. Most immediately, Britton was preparing and hoping for a healthy 2018 campaign after dealing with arm issues in the just-completed season. Instead, he’ll need to rehabilitate this unexpected injury — which is to his right Achilles, per MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli (via Twitter) — before building back up into pitching form.
MLBTR projected that Britton would command $12.2MM in his final trip through the arbitration process. While it’s too late for the O’s to pull back their decision to tender him a contract, the club could end up releasing Britton to avoid paying him the full contract value. So long as he’s released before the 16th day of Spring Training, the O’s can avoid all but thirty days worth of salary.
Of course, the lost cash is only a small part of the problem here from the team’s perspective. Baltimore has toyed with the idea of trading Britton ever since last summer, when the club nearly did just that. The idea was to cash in the former ace closer to address other needs — namely, a still-glaring dearth of starters. Of course, the club was also reluctant to part with a pitcher that had been one of the game’s most dominant relievers in 2015 and 2016.
Instead of making that tough call, the O’s will seemingly be left with nothing to show for their final season of control over Britton. Perhaps it’s still conceivable the organization will retain him and hope he’s able to return late in the year, though that’d mean dedicating cash that could instead go to filling out the rotation. And it’s somewhat hard to imagine a scenario where Britton returns in time to turn into a trade chip, so there’s not really any downside protection if his recovery is slowed.
At this point, then, making the best of the situation for the Orioles could mean pursuing some kind of multi-year arrangement with Britton. The southpaw is still reasonably young — he’s just days away from his 30th birthday — so can still hope to find a major free agent payday in the future. And if he goes onto the open market, he’d likely be looking at a two-year rehab deal anyway (such as those signed recently by Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda). Since Baltimore is already on the hook for some cash, perhaps there’s an avenue for the sides to find a mutually agreeable deal that will allow Britton to work back to health with the only organization he has ever played for.
Even if there’s some lemonade to be crafted from this lemon, the news represents a big hit to the Orioles’ hopes for the coming season. It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether the loss of Britton will increase the organization’s willingness to trade away star third baseman Manny Machado, another key player who’s entering his final season of contract control. Of course, it now seems unlikely that righty Brad Brach will end up on the move, as he’s the obvious replacement for Britton in the ninth inning.
Meanwhile, teams that had been weighing pursuit of Britton will now need to adjust their strategies. There are some high-end late-inning arms left in free agency, though not top-tier lefties remain. Organizations that wish to add a closing-capable southpaw will now surely turn their gaze to the Padres’ Brad Hand, who already came with a justifiably lofty trade value.
Phillies Sign Carlos Santana
DECEMBER 20: The Phillies have announced the deal. Sanchez has the full breakdown (via Twitter): Santana receives a $10MM signing bonus, with annual salaries of $15MM, $17MM, and $17.5MM. The math would suggest that there’s a $500K buyout on the option year.
DECEMBER 15, 1:28pm: Santana’s contract is still pending a physical, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury also tweets that Hoskins will indeed play a significant amount of left field, freeing up the possibility of the trade of an outfielder. Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams had been slotted in as the Phillies’ corner outfielders, with Odubel Herrera lined up as the center fielder.
12:52pm: Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports that Santana’s deal also comes with a $17.5MM club option for a fourth season (Twitter link).
12:32pm: In a surprising move, the Phillies have agreed to a deal with first baseman Carlos Santana, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). It’s a hefty three-year, $60MM contract, according to Heyman. Santana is represented by Octagon.
Philadelphia has been linked to Santana on multiple occasions, though it’s long seemed like a curious fit given the emergence of Rhys Hoskins as the presumptive starter at first base. However, the Phils deployed Hoskins in left field last season, and he turned in passable results in a small sample of 237 innings there (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, scratch defense per Ultimate Zone Rating).
The Phillies could opt to continue utilizing Hoskins in the outfield in order to get Santana’s bat into the lineup. Santana does have 225 innings of experience at third base, though he received poor defensive ratings there, and his superlative glovework at first base is a significant component in his value. Santana, of course, broke into the Majors as a catcher but hasn’t suited up behind the dish since the 2014 season and hasn’t played more than 100 innings there since 2013, owing in part due to concussion issues.
[Related: Updated Philadelphia Phillies depth chart]
Santana jumps out as the most significant position player to come off the board and does so in impressive fashion, matching the dollars that his now-former teammate, Edwin Encarnacion, received with the Indians just one offseason ago. Santana landed a considerably stronger average annual value than many pundits predicted — MLBTR pegged him at three years and $45MM in total on our Top 50 free agent list — though the Phillies likely had to pay a premium to convince a top-tier free agent to sign with a club that has spent the past several seasons rebuilding.
The 31-year-old Santana (32 in April) should play no small part in helping the Phils further their efforts to return to contention in the National League East, though. He’s coming off a strong .259/.363/.455 batting line in 667 plate appearances last season and turned in a career year in 2016 when he hit .259/.366/.498 with 34 homers.
Overall, the switch-hitting Santana has turned in a .363 OBP in nearly 4600 plate appearances since establishing himself as a Major League regular back in 2011, averaging 153 games played and 24 homers per season along the way. One would think that a move to a much more hitter-friendly environment, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, should help to improve his power output as well (though his .196 ISO in that time is already plenty strong).
Because Santana rejected a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Indians, he comes with draft compensation in the form of the Phillies’ second-highest draft pick — in this case, their second-round pick — and a $500K hit to their 2018-19 international bonus pool. The Phils will lose not only that second-round pick, but also the slot money that would’ve come along with it, thus noticeably shrinking next year’s draft pool.
The Indians, meanwhile, will secure a compensatory pick between the end of the first round and the start of Competitive Balance Round A due to the fact that Santana’s contract exceeded $50MM in total guarantees.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Red Sox Re-Sign Mitch Moreland
The Red Sox announced today that they’ve re-signed first baseman Mitch Moreland to a two-year deal that runs through the 2019 season. Moreland, a client of BASH Baseball, will receive a guaranteed $13MM, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets that Moreland will earn $6.5MM in each of the next two seasons. He can earn another $1MM worth of incentives, per Crasnick.
It’s a surprising move for a Red Sox team that has been linked to Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez thus far on the free-agent market. The return of Moreland now makes a Hosmer signing decidedly unlikely, while a match with Martinez would now require an additional move elsewhere in the starting lineup (though that has long seemed likely to be the case). With Moreland back in the fold, he and his excellent defensive reputation figure to be at first base on a regular basis. The Sox will likely turn to Hanley Ramirez as their primary designated hitter once again in 2018.
While Moreland isn’t the big bat for which many Sox fans were pining, he’s coming off a decent season at the plate and another strong year with the glove. In 576 trips to the dish, Moreland slashed .246/.326/.443 with 22 homers and 34 doubles. He also turned in a stellar +10 mark in Defensive Runs Saved and drew a +4 rating from Ultimate Zone Rating for his efforts in 1170 innings at first base this past season. As always, Moreland was heavily shielded from lefties, though he held his own against them in 2017, hitting .247 with a .341 OBP against them in a small sample of 73 plate appearances.
Fitting Martinez or another slugger into the equation in Boston would now likely mean either trading an outfielder or cutting bait on the final season of Ramirez’s four-year, $88MM contract. Ramirez’s initial experiment as a left fielder in Boston was a flop, and the team quickly shifted him from the outfield to first base and DH, where he’s spent the past couple of seasons. Shoulder troubles limited Ramirez almost exclusively to DH duties in 2017, when he hit .242/.320/.429 in 553 plate appearances. The Sox have suggested that he’s healthy enough to play first base again in 2017, though his diminished offensive output suggests that there’s clearly room for an upgrade if the Sox are willing to eat the $22MM he’s owed this year.
If the Sox do ultimately stick with Ramirez, then the encouraging reports on his health likely mean that he could play first base on days when the Sox face a left-handed starter, shielding Moreland from those matchups once again. That’d create room for a right-handed bench bat to slot in at DH those days. Currently, Bryce Brentz would probably be in line to fill that role, though presumably that’s another area Boston will look to upgrade, whether with a dramatic splash (e.g. Martinez) or a more complementary approach (as they took two years ago when signing Chris Young).
From a payroll perspective, Moreland will push the Sox north of the $207MM mark (including arbitration projections and pre-arb players). The Sox, clearly, are in line to pay the luxury tax, though president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski has previously stated that he didn’t consider staying under the threshold to be a priority this winter. How much they’re comfortable blowing past that $197MM barrier remains to be seen, though Boston doesn’t figure to simply bring back the same club it trotted out in 2017, so it stands to reason that they’ll continue to push past that point between now and Opening Day.
As for Hosmer, the move eliminates one of his primary landing spots, leaving the Padres now as the primary team that’s been connected to him this winter. Kansas City reportedly still hopes to retain Hosmer even as it embarks on a rebuild, so it would seem that there are at least two clubs yet vying for his services.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
J.T. Realmuto Reportedly Requests Trade
11:15am: Per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link), the Marlins say they understand the reasoning behind Realmuto’s desire to be traded (the same goes for Christian Yelich), given the scope of the team’s recent rebuilding efforts. However, the Marlins still do not have any intention to trade Realmuto at present, Nightengale adds.
10:51am: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Realmuto does indeed want to be traded out of Miami.
10:46am: The Marlins haven’t been shy about blowing up the active roster, having traded away Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna. Those trades, obviously, aren’t likely to sit well with the remaining talent on the roster, and it seems that catcher J.T. Realmuto can be counted among that camp. Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that Realmuto has requested a trade out of Miami; FanRag’s Jon Heyman, meanwhile, more softly suggests that Realmuto has simply told the team that he “wouldn’t mind” a trade of his own, given what has transpired in recent weeks (Twitter link).
It doesn’t come as much of a surprise that one of the remaining top-tier young talents in Miami would, to whatever degree, express to the front office and ownership that he’s amenable to a trade (or, more strongly, that he would definitively like to be traded). The Marlins’ moves to shed payroll and the unlikeliness that the saved resources will be invested into the 2018 product leave little chance that the team will be competitive next year.
Realmuto, 26, might not be a household name but has quietly emerged as one of the better all-around catchers in the game over the past couple of seasons. In 1124 plate appearances dating back to Opening Day 2016, Realmuto has slashed .290/.337/.440 with 28 homers, 62 doubles, five triples and 20 stolen bases.
He’s also thrown out 33.7 percent of would-be base thieves — well above the league average of 27 percent — and in 2017 ranked as an above-average pitch framer (after a pair of negative seasons in that regard). Realmuto also ranked among the game’s best in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt, and Baseball Prospectus’ overall Fielding Runs Above Average metric pegged him as MLB’s sixth-best defensive catcher in 2017.
Realumuto’s value, though, goes well beyond the fact that he’s established himself as an above-average contributor on both sides of the ball. He’s also highly desirable from a contractual standpoint, as he’s entering his first offseason of arbitration eligibility and remains under team control through the 2020 season. Realmuto will turn 27 in March, so any team acquiring him would be acquiring three affordable years of his physical prime; he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an eminently affordable $4.2MM in 2018.
Heyman notes that the team’s response to Realmuto’s suggestion/request isn’t yet known. It’s worth noting that the Marlins are under no obligation to trade him even if he wants out. However, ticket sales in Miami already figure to be in the tank after their aggressive moves to pare back the payroll, and from a pure baseball standpoint, there’s an easy argument to be made that they should deal him now to continue adding young talent to what entered the offseason as perhaps baseball’s worst farm system. Three years of Realmuto should come with quite a bit of value even if there aren’t too many contending clubs in dire need of an everyday catcher. Speculatively, though, the Nationals, D-backs and Rockies are among the expected contenders that could use an upgrade behind the dish.
Dodgers Acquire Matt Kemp For Adrian Gonzalez, Kazmir, McCarthy, Culberson
In a stunning swap of big contracts, the Dodgers have traded first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, left-hander Scott Kazmir, right-hander Brandon McCarthy and infielder Charlie Culberson to the Braves in exchange for outfielder Matt Kemp. The Braves will also receive $4.5MM in cash. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report news of the trade. Furthermore, Mark Bowman of MLB.com adds that the Braves have already designated Gonzalez for assignment. A source close to Rosenthal tells him that the Dodgers are likely to trade or release Kemp (Twitter link).
There’s a ton to unpack here, but the biggest motivator of the trade appears to be money, and more specifically luxury tax implications for the Dodgers. Rosenthal notes in another tweet that the trade is “effectively cash-neutral overall,” but adds that the swap will put the Dodgers below the $197MM luxury tax threshold for the 2018 season. That will allow the Dodgers to reset the escalating luxury tax penalties, which seems to have been a significant objective for the club this offseason. The money owed to Kemp is spread out across the 2018-2019 seasons, while Gonzalez, Kazmir and McCarthy all have just one year remaining on their contracts.
Rosenthal offers further clarification yet, as he points out that the Dodgers have paid the luxury tax for five consecutive seasons. Their penalty for 2017 was over $30MM, but if they keep their payroll below $197MM, their penalty will drop from 50% on the overage to 20% the next time they exceed the luxury tax threshold.
Joel Sherman reports in his own tweet that the Braves are planning to release Gonzalez, but can’t do so until Monday since MLB teams can’t release players on weekends during the offseason. Gonzalez actually had to waive his no-trade clause in order to make this trade possible, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports that he did so mainly because the Dodgers told him he’d be buried on the bench and receive limited at-bats.
[RELATED: Updated Dodgers Depth Chart; Updated Braves Depth Chart]
As for the Braves, the $4.5MM they’ll get in the deal will even out the overall dollars swapped in the trade (hat tip to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports). GM Alex Anthopoulos says that McCarthy satisfies the team’s “desire to add a veteran starter,” while Culberson fills their need for a bench player (via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). Kazmir has some upside as a rotation piece too.
Not insignificant is the fact that the Dodgers have opened up multiple spots on their 40-man roster, including one that was already earmarked for Tom Koehler, with whom the Dodgers have recently agreed to a one-year deal.
Kemp, 33, was a sixth-round selection of the Dodgers back in 2003. He made his major league debut in 2007, and went on to have some great seasons for Los Angeles, including a 2011 campaign in which he finished as the runner-up in the MVP voting. Later that year, the club signed the outfielder to an eight-year, $160MM extension. Not long after that, his performance began to decline; Kemp has only topped 1 WAR once in the past four seasons as his contract has been tossed between the Padres, Braves and Dodgers. For the 2017 season, Kemp hit .276/.318/.463, making him a roughly average major league hitter (100 wRC+). However, his poor defense in the outfield dropped his overall value to -0.5 fWAR.
Gonzalez, now 35 years of age, went to the Marlins with the number one overall pick in the 2000 draft. His breakout season came with the Padres in 2006; that year began a streak of ten consecutive seasons wherein the left-handed-hitting first baseman posted at least 2.9 fWAR. Across those years, he posted a .292/.366/.501 slash line and mashed 283 homers. This past season, however, Gonzalez battled injuries throughout the year and didn’t hit well when healthy; he amassed only 252 plate appearances across 71 games with the Dodgers and managed a career-worst .355 slugging percentage. All told, Gonzalez was valued at 1.1 wins below replacement level.
Kazmir’s story is a roller coaster of sorts; he was a great pitcher during his early years with the then-Devil Rays, including a 2007 season in which he posted a 3.48 ERA with 239 strikeouts across 206 2/3 innings. However, Kazmir began to struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, and though he experienced a resurgence in July that prompted a trade to the Angels, his ERA during the 2009 postseason was an ugly 7.59. Those struggles continued into the 2010 season, and by 2011 Kazmir was pitching for the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate and was cut before June was over. After spending 2012 out of MLB entirely, the Indians took a chance on him in 2013, and he rewarded them with a 4.04 ERA (and 3.51 FIP) campaign that earned him the Comeback Player of the Year Award. He signed a two-year deal with the Athletics the following offseason, and seemed to be “back.” The Dodgers signed Kazmir to a three-year, $48MM deal, but the injury bug struck once again, marring his 2016 performance and keeping him off the field entirely in 2017.
The 34-year-old McCarthy has a career 4.15 ERA across 1,145 big league innings with the White Sox, Rangers, Athletics, Diamondbacks, Yankees and Dodgers. He’s generally provided value while on the field, but has only topped 140 innings twice in his twelve-year career. Part of that can be attributed to injuries, including a 2015 Tommy John surgery when he famously noted on Twitter that “31 years is a lot to ask for from a ligament.” During the past two seasons, he’s put up a 4.27 ERA while striking out 116 batters in 132 2/3 innings.
Based on his age and team control, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Culberson is the one player in this deal who looks capable of being a long-term piece. The Georgia native won’t even be eligible for arbitration until next winter, meaning the Braves could control him for the next four seasons. The righty-hitting Culberson hasn’t found much big league success since debuting in 2012, though, having hit just .229/.269/.321 in 443 PAs with three NL West clubs – the Giants, Rockies and Dodgers. Culberson racked up a mere 83 trips to the plate in two seasons with the Dodgers, but he did swat a couple dramatic homers during his LA tenure.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
