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Astros Considering Pursuit Of Top Starters

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2017 at 11:43am CDT

As the Astros prepare for a World Series title defense, they are at least weighing the possibility of adding a significant rotation piece, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, the club has “shown interest” in top free agents Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Possible trade targets such as Chris Archer could also be considered.

At this stage, it seems, that interest is mostly exploratory in nature. That’s not to diminish the importance of the report, though: the involvement of the ’Stros at the top of the rotation market could certainly have a significant bearing on how things shake out.

Though Houston’s payroll has continued to climb northward in recent years, the team’s successes have perhaps freed up some additional financial flexibility. Rosenthal also notes that the organization could find a taker for Collin McHugh — who’s projected to earn $4.8MM by MLBTR — should they make a big strike in the rotation.

On the one hand, this news hardly rates as a surprise. While the ’Stros staff has plenty of talent, particularly with Justin Verlander now on hand, it also comes with some questions. Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton have had some health concerns at times and Brad Peacock will need to prove his 2017 breakout is sustainable. Plus, with Dallas Keuchel slated for free agency next winter, there’s room to consider a long-term addition.

On the other, this is a bit of an interesting development. The unfortunate incident involving Yulieski Gurriel mocking Darvish during the World Series is one factor with regard to that particular possibility, though both players’ responses in the aftermath suggest it’s not an insurmountable barrier. Of greater importance, perhaps, is the fact that the Astros were so careful even when deciding to add Verlander out of concern for over-burdening their future payroll. Darvish and Arrieta are each already 31 years of age.

Then there’s the fact that the bullpen remains the obvious area to target. What’s most interesting about this report may be the possibility that the Astros would consider a major rotation upgrade to be a means of answering needs on the relief side — at least in part. With top youngsters such as Francis Martes and David Paulino climbing the ladder, there are plenty of avenues for creativity. Adding another quality starter would leave the organization with significant depth and flexibility to keep arms fresh through the season and, perhaps, enter a hypothetical postseason run with loads of interesting possibilities for handling a staff.

Yankees Acquire Giancarlo Stanton

By Kyle Downing | December 11, 2017 at 9:55am CDT

MONDAY: The trade is now official, per club announcements.

SATURDAY: It would appear that the Giancarlo Stanton saga has come to a close. The Yankees are set to acquire the 2017 NL MVP from the Marlins in exchange for infielder Starlin Castro, along with minor-leaguers Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. The Marlins will also send the Yankees $30MM in cash if Stanton does not opt out of his contract after the 2020 season. The deal is still pending a physical.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports was the first to report that a deal was set, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post mentioned earlier that a deal was “virtually in place”, adding that Castro would be part of the deal. While some other cash numbers were mentioned by some reporters earlier in the day, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to mention the $30MM figure that has since been confirmed by Morosi as well as Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Credit goes to Sherman for the report that the prospects involved are in the low minors, as well as first breaking the news that those prospects were Guzman and Devers. Sherman was also the first to report that the Yankees will only get the cash if Stanton doesn’t opt out after 2020.

While there was initially some uncertainty surrounding whether or not Stanton would waive his no-trade clause, that dissolved when Heyman reported that Stanton was on his way to New York City for his physical. Stanton will retain no-trade privileges after the one-time waiver, Heyman adds on Twitter, so he’ll still control his destiny if the Yanks end up trying to move the contract in the future.

The acquisition of Stanton by the Yankees brings a dramatic swirl of trade rumors to a firm close. There had been speculation about Stanton’s availability as early as July, though a trade never materialized despite Stanton reportedly clearing revocable trade waivers. Early in November, reports surfaced that the Marlins were interested in moving Stanton (and other big contracts) in order to trim payroll to about $90MM before the start of the 2018 season. While the Marlins were able to work out the framework for deals with the Cardinals and Giants, Stanton ultimately used his no-trade clause to block those deals. The Marlins were ultimately forced to settle for a lesser prospect return from the Yankees, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Yankees took on more of Stanton’s salary than the Cardinals were willing to.

Stanton will add even more power to a Yankees lineup that finished the 2017 season with 241 homers; more than any other MLB club. Notably, Stanton will unite with the only other player to finish this past season with more than 50 homers: Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge. Those two right-handed power threats, along with a third in catcher Gary Sanchez, should become an absolute terror for opposing left-handed pitchers.

The Yankees have made it clear that they plan on trying to get below the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and while the acquisition of Stanton would seem to run contrary to that objective, making the two work in tandem could be easier than it would initially appear. Luxury tax implications are based on the average annual value of guaranteed contracts, and Stanton’s figure towards the threshold is based off of his entire contract with the Marlins. Since that deal was for 13 years and $325MM, Stanton’s luxury tax contribution will be $22MM annually, thanks to the conditional $30MM contribution from the Marlins. The average annual value of Castro’s contract is $8.6MM, so the Stanton trade will only add about $13.4MM to the Yankees payroll in 2018 for luxury tax purposes.

The Stanton deal will no doubt have an enormous ripple effect throughout baseball, starting with the AL East. The Red Sox stand out as big losers in this deal; not only did they hope to acquire Stanton themselves after finishing last in the AL in home runs, but the 2017 homer champ will be another right-handed power threat to a lefty-heavy Boston rotation that includes Chris Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez. In addition, the Stanton deal further bolsters a Yankees team that looked formidable even without the reigning NL MVP, meaning that Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay (who seem to be on the fringes of contention) might reconsider their intentions to seriously compete for a pennant. Should those teams change their direction, big names like Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado could potentially become available in trade discussions. Even if that doesn’t happen, a more dominant Yankees lineup has a better chance to force their weaker rivals out of contention before the midseason trade deadline. That’s not to say that one player can definitively make such a profound impact, but as a seven-WAR player, Stanton could certainly tip the scales. Elsewhere in baseball, the Nationals, Mets and Braves will benefit from the full rebuild the completed deal signals for the Marlins camp.

Stanton, of course, led all qualifying MLB players this past year with 59 homers and a .631 slugging percentage en route to his first MVP selection. The towering 6’6″ right-handed hitter terrorized NL pitching to the tune of a .281/.376/.631 overall batting line while playing roughly average defense in right field. The Marlins took him in the second round of the 2007 draft, and have since been rewarded with 34.1 wins above replacement level. Stanton ranked seventh in the majors in 2017 with a 91.9 MPH average exit velocity, including the hardest-hit ball all year (122.2 MPH). His .410 wOBA and 156 wRC+ both ranked fifth in MLB.

The 21-year-old Guzman is best known as one of the pieces sent from Houston to New York in exchange for catcher Brian McCann just last winter. The 2015 international signee out of the Dominican Republic posted excellent numbers in thirteen starts for the Yankees’ Low-A affiliate, including a 2.30 ERA with 11.28 K/9 against just 2.43 BB/9. Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs describes Guzman as someone who throws “absolute gas.” The 6’2″ righty reportedly sits around 96-100 MPH with his fastball and can reach back for up to 102. He combines that pitch with an 89 MPH slider; that combination helped him strike out a league-leading 33% of batters faced. KATOH projects him as high as a 4.5 WAR player in the majors.

Devers, 18, was also signed out of the Dominican Republic. The Yankees added the left-handed hitting shortstop to their system just this season for a bonus of $250K; he’s only got 53 pro games under his belt. Devers is best known as the cousin of Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, who was a top prospect in Boston’s system and made his major league debut in 2017. Ben Badler of Baseball America describes the younger Devers as “a wiry shortstop with above-average speed, good hands and quick footwork.” He’s largely put to bed initial concerns about his arm action and arm strength, and has been described by opposing managers as someone who takes away a lot of hits with his glove. While he doesn’t provide much in the way of power, Devers shows good contact ability with the bat. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Devers also has a projectable frame, and confirms that his swing will need some tweaking if he wants to develop any real power.

Yankees Extend Brian Cashman

By Steve Adams | December 11, 2017 at 7:40am CDT

MONDAY: The extension is complete, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports tweets. The pact is worth “$25MM plus” across five years.

FRIDAY: The Yankees are closing in on a five-year contract extension with general manager Brian Cashman that would pay him a total of $25MM, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Not only would that represent a considerably lengthier pact than the three-year deal Cashman is on the verge of completing, it’d also represent a notable annual raise from his current $3MM annual rate.

The Cashman extension comes on the heels of an extremely successful season for a Yankees club that many believed to be in the midst of a transitional period. Rather, Cashman’s club was buoyed by breakouts from young names like Aaron Judge, Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery, while more experienced players such as Aaron Hicks and Didi Gregorius took significant steps forward and delivered career years.

The Yankees, of course, are also widely regarded to have one of the game’s best farm systems even after trades to acquire Sonny Gray, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Todd Frazier prior to this year’s non-waiver deadline. The prized farm system is the fruit of aggressive spending on the international market as well as recent commitments to shying away from free agents that come with draft-pick compensation — both of which were directives under the Cashman-led Yankees.

It’s a significant show of faith in Cashman at a pivotal point for the franchise. Cashman made a fairly stunning decision following the team’s loss in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, not only electing not to re-sign his manager of the past 10 years, Joe Girardi, but also to replace Girardi with a former player that does not have a single day of managerial or even coaching experience, former ESPN analyst Aaron Boone. Cashman has spoken positively about Boone and expressed a firm belief that he’ll be able to connect with players and approach managing with an ability to implement “evolving strategies” in a “progressive” manner.

The Boone experiment will be one upon which Cashman is judged extensively, though it’s also worth pointing out that Cashman’s five-year contract is longer than Boone’s three-year guarantee as the team’s new skipper.

Rockies Sign Chris Iannetta

By Jeff Todd | December 10, 2017 at 6:48am CDT

SUNDAY: Iannetta’s option for 2020 is actually worth $4.25MM, per Heyman (Twitter link).

FRIDAY: The Rockies have announced a two-year deal with veteran catcher Chris Iannetta, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported (Twitter link). Iannetta will receive a $8.5MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.

Iannetta will get a $300K signing bonus plus successive salaries of $3.45MM and $4MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The contract also includes a vesting/club option with a $5.25MM price and $750K buyout. It will vest if Iannetta starts at least 220 total games over the next two seasons

With the agreement, Iannetta becomes the second backstop to take home a multi-year deal this winter. Welington Castillo previously wrapped up a two-year, $15MM arrangement with the White Sox. Unsurprisingly, Iannetta settles for somewhat less, but still gets a large bump over last year’s $1.5MM salary.

The Rockies got a good look at Iannetta last year, as he appeared in 89 games for the division-rival Diamondbacks. Iannetta thrived in that half-time role, posting an excellent .254/.354/.511 batting line and launching 17 home runs in his 316 plate appearances. He continued to draw walks at a solid clip (11.7%) and made up for a career-worst 27.5% strikeout rate by posting a personal-high .257 isolated slugging mark.

Of course, Iannetta will also turn 35 just days into the 2018 season. And some regression is almost surely in the cards, though it’s fair to note that he has produced at the same level as recently as 2014 — though he also oversaw two mediocre seasons at the plate in the interim. Iannetta’s framing numbers have ridden much the same roller coaster in recent years.

The move represents a return to where it all began for Iannetta, who was drafted and developed by the Rockies. He now figures to occupy a significant portion of the organization’s playing time behind the dish. Perhaps the move does not fully eliminate the Rox as a suitor for Jonathan Lucroy, but it does make it quite a bit less likely that Lucroy will return to Colorado. The team could choose to pair Iannetta with one of its existing catchers, Tony Wolters or Tom Murphy, leaving some untapped resources free to pursue upgrades in other areas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yankees, Marlins Reach Deal For Stanton

By Kyle Downing and Tim Dierkes | December 9, 2017 at 10:56am CDT

10:56am: Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter that the Yankees will receive about $35MM from the Marlins in the deal, and confirms that they’ll send back Castro and prospects. Heyman also adds in a separate tweet that Stanton is on his way to NYC for a physical, making it clear that he is waiving his no-trade clause.

10:35am: A source close to Morosi confirms Rosenthal’s report that Stanton is expected to approve the trade.

9:56am: A last-ditch effort to acquire Stanton today by the Dodgers is unlikely, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports hears (Twitter link).

9:33am: The main prospects that would be headed back in the deal are down in the lower levels of the Yankees’ minor league system, Sherman adds.

9:20am: Sherman hears that Castro is the only veteran going back to the Marlins in the deal (Twitter link). The other players going to Miami are Yankees prospects, though not their “best.”

8:49am: The expectation is that Stanton will approve the trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal also mentions that the deal is pending physicals, which seem to be the only real item standing in the way of the trade being considered complete.

7:14am: The Yankees and Marlins have a deal for Giancarlo Stanton, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The deal is still subject to Stanton’s approval, as the slugger has full no-trade rights. Several hours prior, Joel Sherman of the New York Post called the deal “virtually done,” noting the Marlins will receive second baseman Starlin Castro “plus good but not top prospects” if completed. Before that, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle had reported the deal as “close if not done.”

Yesterday, Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants. Previous reporting has indicated that the Yankees are on the short list of teams to which Stanton would be willing to be traded, so his approval in this case may not be a major hurdle. Stanton will also need to pass a physical by the Yankees, as Sherman has noted.

The pairing of Giancarlo Stanton with Aaron Judge will be one for the ages. Stanton just took home the NL MVP award with an epic 59 home run season, a level that had not been reached since Barry Bonds in 2001. Meanwhile, Judge won the American League Rookie of the Year award and finished second in the AL MVP voting with 52 bombs, a rookie record. Throw in catcher Gary Sanchez, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman has assembled a Murderers’ Row of right-handed sluggers.

Earlier this year, the Marlins were purchased by a group led by former Yankees great Derek Jeter, as well as investor Bruce Sherman. The pair chose to keep alive the Marlins’ fire sale tradition, intent on moving Stanton because of the massive contract he signed under previous owner Jeffrey Loria three years ago. The Marlins’ leverage was clearly reduced after Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants. Stanton, 28, is still owed $295MM over the next ten years. After the 2020 season, he has the right to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM, which will be a source of significant downside risk for the Yankees. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has expressed his commitment to getting the team’s payroll under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, which isn’t easy to do while adding Stanton’s contract. Sending Castro to the Marlins removes a two-year, $22MM commitment. However, as Sherman points out, the average annual value of Castro’s contract is what counts towards the tax; that figure is $8.6MM.

It’s certainly too early to say this for certain, but the impact of this trade could even reach next year’s free agent market, as Mark Zuckerman notes on Twitter. The Yankees have long been considered one of the best potential suitors for former NL MVP Bryce Harper, but may not have room for him in their outfield (or potentially their 2019 payroll) any longer. It would be hard to imagine them using one of Judge, Stanton or Harper exclusively as a designated hitter, and none of them are likely candidates to play anywhere on the field besides the outfield corners.

The deal will also come with significant risk for the Yankees. As Eno Sarris of Fangraphs pointed out back in November, it’s hard to know how the reigning NL MVP will age. Stanton also missed large portions of the 2015 and 2016 seasons with a broken hand and a groin strain, respectively. Add that injury history into the mix, and there’s a number of scenarios that end with Stanton’s contract becoming a significant albatross for the Yankees during the final years of the deal. This doesn’t necessarily detract from the fact that New York is in a much better position over the next few years due to the slugging outfielder’s presence, but it’s certainly a notable concern.

Acquiring Stanton should help soften the blow for the Yankees of seeing Shohei Ohtani agree to terms with the Angels. Last week, the Bombers were considered strong suitors for the services of the two-way Japanese phenom, and didn’t seem like serious contenders to land Stanton in a trade. While the Yanks will still want to make a big improvement to their pitching staff, Stanton adds similar value to their roster overall, and perhaps allows them to be more aggressive in shopping outfielder Clint Frazier for cost-controlled starting pitchers (hat tip to Joel Sherman).

The Miami Marlins originally took Stanton with the 76th overall pick in the 2007 draft (second round). After a hot start with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate three years later, the team decided to promote him straight to the majors, skipping Triple-A entirely. Stanton stuck in the majors and has been a power monster ever since; he’s already socked 267 home runs over the course of his career to go with a .268/.360/.554 career slash line. While he’s dealt with a plethora of injuries that have caused him to miss time in four of his seven full seasons, the Sherman Oaks, California high school product has averaged roughly 4.5 WAR during that time. 2017 was Stanton’s best season yet; not only did he mash a career-high 59 homers, but he cut his strikeout rate down to a career-low 23.6%. Ultimately, he was rewarded with the National League’s MVP honors for his tremendous year.

Yankees, Marlins In Advanced Talks On Giancarlo Stanton

By Jeff Todd | December 9, 2017 at 12:35am CDT

SATURDAY, 12:35am: “Serious” talks between the Yankees and Marlins have been underway for “at least a few days,” Heyman tweets. Indeed, the presence of a more desirable potential landing spot (from Stanton’s perspective) may even have dissuaded the slugger somewhat from accepting a move to the Giants or Cardinals, Heyman suggests.

FRIDAY, 11:41pm: A deal to send Stanton to New York is “close if not done,” a source tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).

10:17pm: The Dodgers are also still involved on Stanton, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets, though the Yankees are at a “more advanced stage” with their new push. Indeed, the Marlins’ discussions with other clubs are not considered serious at this point, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Meanwhile, there are some competing forces at work between the Marlins and Yankees. The Marlins are “not remotely interested” in taking on underperforming contracts from the Yankees, Bob Nightengale of USA Today cautions (Twitter link). At the same time, Miami may be hoping to get something done before the Winter Meetings get underway next week, Heyman tweets, to make the move before teams begin committing significant cash elsewhere.

9:33pm: We have heard hints of this in recent days, and now there’s firm indication: the Yankees are “in play” for Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links).

Indeed, there’s real progress between the two organizations, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports adds (Twitter links), characterizing the talks as having “significant” levels of “momentum.” But a Marlins source tells Rosenthal that there’s no deal close at present, while acknowledging the teams are indeed “talking” about a swap.

After utilizing his blanket no-trade rights to eliminate the Giants and Cardinals from contention today, the heavily-marketed Stanton is open to new bidders. But with the two most aggressive suitors out of the picture, there’s now less clarity about who’ll drive the market for one of the game’s best players. With the Fish scrambling after their initial efforts fell flat, the Yankees feel they are in a position of strength in negotiations, Passan notes.

Reports have indicated that Stanton is amenable to waiving his no-trade protection to go to the Yankees — or, instead, to the Dodgers, Cubs, and Astros. But of these teams, only New York and Los Angeles have been firmly connected to Stanton at this point. And both are said to be uninterested in assuming the full, $295MM commitment remaining on his contract.

While it has long been reported that the Dodgers have remained lurking on the edges of the Stanton market, the Yankees’ potential interest has been murkier. That’s due in no small part to the team’s reputedly firm commitment to dip below the luxury tax line this year. Whether or not it’s possible for the team to accomplish that while adding Stanton isn’t clear, but certainly it would require significant financial maneuvering. That only adds to the intrigue of the structuring of a possible trade.

If the Yankees are to add Stanton without bearing the full brunt of his salary, that’ll mean either leaving money with the Marlins or — perhaps more likely — sending some big contracts back in the deal. The Yanks are well-equipped to manage Stanton’s long-term commitment — the team has only around $150MM total committed beyond the 2018 season — but will have to be somewhat creative to get under the $197MM luxury tax bar for the coming season, which the organization hopes to do in order to re-set its luxury tax rate (which graduates depending upon how many consecutive seasons a club exceeds it).

It’s mostly speculation at this point, but there are a few obvious possibilities. Jacoby Ellsbury is owed $67MM through 2020 and has been discussed as a possibility, but his no-trade rights seem to pose a major complication. Chase Headley ($13MM through 2018) and Starlin Castro ($22MM through 2019) are among the other fairly expensive players that might conceivably be utilized to arrange a swap. Though both are currently penciled in for significant roles, Castro has indeed been discussed by the sides, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Those players might also make greater sense for the Marlins since their salaries could be passed on in subsequent trades. Indeed, Castro and Headley are more likely to be involved as salary offsets than is Ellsbury, Heyman tweets. Aiding the Yankees’ flexibility in the infield is the fact that top prospect Gleyber Torres and other talented youngsters are nearing MLB readiness. Frankly, though, there are any number of permutations that one could imagine going back and forth between the teams, with other veterans on either side conceivably being involved to balance things out.

Of course, it’s also at least hypothetically possible that the Yankees will push back their luxury tax re-set date for another year. There’s much greater flexibility then than there is now. While the team has indicated it is fully committed to the limbo effort, its timeline for contention obviously ramped up with a strong 2017 season that included the emergence of Aaron Judge as a middle-of-the-order force. The thought of Judge, Stanton, and young catcher Gary Sanchez mashing long balls from the same lineup may just nudge the Yankees to make a bold move now rather than waiting for an exciting crop of free agents to hit the market next winter.

Giancarlo Stanton Informs Giants He Will Not Waive No-Trade Clause

By Jeff Todd | December 8, 2017 at 5:10pm CDT

The Giants have joined the Cardinals in announcing that Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton has rejected the chance at a trade. Both clubs had worked out deals with Miami and then sat down with the slugger to convince him to waive his no-trade protection.

In combination with the earlier announcement from St. Louis, this operates as a huge shift in the market for Stanton — one of the game’s preeminent stars, its highest-paid player, and a nearly-necessary trade piece for the cost-cutting Marlins. The Giants and Cardinals were both willing to take on at least the bulk of Stanton’s contract. It’s not clear at all that other teams will do so.

Stanton, of course, is under no obligation to green-light a deal. He bargained for his no-trade protection and has every right to use it however he sees fit. But his stance has certainly jammed things up for the Marlins, who have little alternative but to find a trade that he’ll authorize given the team’s determination to oversee a drastic payroll reduction.

The only reason that Stanton ended up meeting with these two teams, of course, is that they were the preferred matches from the Marlins’ perspective. Now, with both evidently out of the picture, the Fish will have to be fishermen, seeking another team to take the hook.

Indications last night were that Stanton has indicated he’d be open to joining the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, or Cubs. But only the first two of those clubs have been tied to Stanton in any meaningful way, and both are also reportedly uninterested in taking on the full $295MM still owed to Stanton, owing at least in part to luxury tax considerations. Working something out, then, will surely require some creative accounting work. And there’s also little question that the Dodgers and Yanks will milk their leverage for everything it’s worth.

It’s tempting, perhaps, to label this an instance of miscalculation by the Marlins. Entering the winter with new ownership and a new payroll plan, the team certainly did roll the dice that it would generate enough interest and that Stanton’s no-trade rights would not pose too great an obstacle. Clearly, there’s some blame to be distributed around South Beach.

At the same time, it’s understandable in some regards that the organization penciled in finding an acceptable Stanton deal — and disappointing in some respects to see this situation unfold this way. The Marlins were the relatively rare small-market team that was able to extend a youthful star. When circumstances changed, they might have reasonably hoped to have some way of relieving the pressure. Stanton, after all, is still in his prime and just wrapped up an MVP performance. As things stand, though, it seems that the Miami organization may end up stuck in the middle of baseball’s two biggest-spending clubs — unless, at least, they can find a way to cook up a new strategy after Plan A evidently failed.

Giancarlo Stanton Informs Cardinals He Will Not Waive No-Trade Clause

By Jeff Todd | December 8, 2017 at 3:47pm CDT

The Cardinals have announced that they have been informed that Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton will not waive his no-trade clause to approve a deal to St. Louis. Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweeted the full statement.

Miami had put deals in place with both the Cards and the Giants, allowing Stanton to speak with both organizations before deciding whether to approve a deal. (With full no-trade rights, he controls the process.) It’s not certain at present whether a final decision has been issued with regard to the San Francisco organization, but we heard last night that there are indications the Marlins star is disinclined to go there, too.

The Cardinals expressed disappointment that Stanton had decided against joining the organization, but surely have had backup plans on their mind from the get-go. That could even include pursuit of some other notable Marlins outfielders, though there are a wide variety of directions which St. Louis could take.

As for Miami, this is a less-than-ideal development — unless, perhaps, Stanton is willing to go to the Giants. If both of those top suitors fall through, the Fish will need to go back to the drawing board. While yesterday’s news suggested the Dodgers and Yankees could still be brought into the hunt, indications are that those organizations won’t be willing to take on anything approaching all of Stanton’s sizable salary.

Angels Sign Shohei Ohtani

By Steve Adams | December 8, 2017 at 1:05pm CDT

Shohei Ohtani has decided to sign with the Angels, agent Nez Balelo of CAA Baseball announced today. Balelo issued the following statement on his client’s decision:

“This morning, after a thorough, detailed process, Shohei Ohtani has decided to sign with the Los Angeles Angels. Shohei is humbled and flattered by all the time and effort that so many teams put into their presentations and sincerely thanks them for their professionalism. In the end, he felt a strong connection with the Angels and believes they can best help him reach his goals in Major League Baseball.

I want to thank the clubs and everyone else for respecting our intent to make this very important process as private as possible. We were resolved to having a fair, methodical process. Teams clearly put in a lot of work, and we are grateful for that. The past few weeks also further demonstrated Shohei’s incredible thoughtfulness, attention to detail and determination to make an informed decision. He read every page of every presentation and listened to every word in each meeting, and he was so impressed that it was not an easy choice. While there has been much speculation about what would drive Shohei’s decision, what mattered to him most wasn’t market size, time zone or league but that he felt a true bond with the Angels. He sees this as the best environment to develop and reach the next level and attain his career goals. More than ever, I believe this is not only a special talent but a man of special character, and like everyone else I’m excited to see him in Major League Baseball.”

The Angels were one of seven finalists for Ohtani, joined in that regard by the Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants. At various points in recent days, there’s been speculation about the perceived favorites to secure his rights, but few pegged the Halos as any sort of favorite to acquire his services.

The Angels can offer a signing bonus of $2.315MM, which is about $1MM less than the Rangers or Mariners could’ve offered but $2MM greater than what any of the NL clubs were able to pay. They’ll also be on the hook for a $20MM posting fee that will go to Ohtani’s former team, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

Because of his age, the 23-year-old Ohtani is considered an amateur under Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement, meaning that his actual contract will be a straight minor league deal that comes with a league-minimum salary of $545K in the Majors. Like any other player, he’ll be eligible for arbitration after three years of Major League service and will qualify as a free agent after si years of service in the Majors.

Ohtani will jump to the front of an Angels rotation that includes Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker, with names like Parker Bridwell, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano among the contenders for the remaining spots. Given that Ohtani is used to pitching only once per week and was limited to five starts by an ankle and leg injury in 2017, the Angels would seem a good candidate to pitch with a six-man rotation. (That’d also help to manage the innings of Richards, Skaggs, Heaney and Tropeano — each of whom has had elbow issues in the past two years.) For all of his merits — a career 2.52 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 543 NPB innings — Ohtani has never pitched more than 160 2/3 innings in a season.

How the Angels will work him into the mix at the plate remains to be seen, but the signing could push the Angels to give Albert Pujols more time at first base than many would’ve expected. The Angels’ outfield is full with Justin Upton, Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun, leaving designated hitter as the most obvious spot for Ohtani, a career .286/.358/.500 hitter in 1170 NPB plate appearances, to receive any sort of regular plate appearances.

Ohtani’s addition to the Angels is a transformative move for a franchise that was in contention for a Wild Card spot up until the final week of the 2017 season despite a cavalcade of injuries on their pitching staff. With Ohtani and a full year of Upton now on hand, the Angels will enter the 2018 campaign in considerably better position than they did this past season, and that’s before even considering the fact that they’re still widely expected to make an upgrade at second base.

While there’s some skepticism that Ohtani can serve as an above-average bat on a regular basis, there’s little doubt among scouts that he’s a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm, as MLBTR’s Chuck Wasserstrom wrote in a detailed scouting report after speaking with five high-ranking international scouting officials from MLB clubs earlier this year. The Angels, who already have deep pockets and vast spending capacity, are in many ways winning the lottery by acquiring an MLB-ready pitcher of that caliber whom they can pay at a league-minimum rate (or close to it) for the next three seasons. That luxury should allow them to spend more aggressively on other areas of need.

There’s been an enormous amount of speculation about whether the team that ultimately signs Ohtani would negotiate some type of early extension for him to compensate for his limited earning potential, though Major League Baseball has made clear to teams that it won’t stand for any circumvention of the international bonus structure by signing Ohtani to a precedent-breaking contract early in his career. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined recently, that may not mean that Ohtani is forbidden from signing any type of extension, but a contract would likely have to fall under the guise of recent precedent as pertains to other players in his service class.

Clearly, based on the fact that Ohtani even requested to be posted this offseason, money isn’t his primary motivation in coming to the Majors, however. The need for a lengthy contract extension for Ohtani is ever less glaring in light of recent reports that he could earn in excess of $20MM annually via marketing and endorsement deals both in the United States and in Japan. Assuming he lives up to the hype, it would still eventually behoove the Halos to try to keep Ohtani around longer than his initial six years of control, though his lack of financial motivation in his initial foray into free agency could push that desire several years down the road. Presumably, commissioner Rob Manfred has some degree of statute of limitations in mind as to when a team could initiate extension talks without raising red flags or concerns about a preconceived deal.

Even with Ohtani on board, the Angels still face an uphill battle in the American League West, where the reigning World Series Champion Astros trounced the division and closed out the year with a 21-game lead. There’s little doubt that Ohtani will help to bridge that gap, but GM Billy Eppler and his staff will nonetheless still have work to do despite the coup of adding perhaps the most intriguing player on the planet to a team that also happens to include the the consensus best player on the planet over the past half-decade (Trout).

As for the other six teams that are left wanting, they’ll now shift to various Plan Bs and Cs as they deal with the disappointment of coming so close to a scenario they’ve envisioned for the past five years, when Ohtani was drawing MLB interest as a high schooler in Japan. The Mariners and Rangers each have more than $3.5MM worth of international funding that they can spend as a result of their pursuits to acquire Ohtani — money that’ll now be reinvested into the farm system (either via directly signing players or trading those allotments for young players). Teams like the Cubs and Giants, each with only clear spot to fill in the rotation, will now look to other means of filling that void — both in trades and free agency.

The most fascinating free-agent pursuit in recent memory has come to a close with the Angels standing on top, and we’ll now all wait for one of the most anticipated debuts in Major League history.

Photos courtesy of Getty Images.

Tigers Sign Mike Fiers

By Jeff Todd | December 8, 2017 at 12:47pm CDT

The Tigers have filled the fifth spot in their 2018 rotation, announcing on Friday a one-year deal with free agent right-hander Mike Fiers. He’ll reportedly earn $6MM on the contract and will remain under Tigers control through 2019 as an arbitration-eligible player. Detroit’s 40-man roster is now full.

Detroit has long seemed to make sense as a landing spot for a bounceback starter or two, and Fiers clearly fits that description. The 32-year-old was recently non-tendered by the Astros, who were unwilling to commit to what MLBTR projected as a $5.7MM salary.

That no other teams stepped in to trade for Fiers seemingly suggested that the rest of the market was equally unwilling to pay that price. Yet Fiers has evidently secured a guarantee that’s greater than the projection. Of course, it’s possible that the market moved a bit more than anyone anticipated. And it’s at least arguably preferable to have him at a fixed price rather than risking an arb hearing.

It’s worth noting that Detroit will also pick up what’s essentially a team option at a floating price. Since Fiers is eligible for arbitration one more time, the organization will get to decide whether to tender him at the end of the 2018 season.

[RELATED: Updated Tigers Depth Chart]

Of course, that assumes that Fiers is not traded in the interim. If all goes as hoped, and he delivers strong results, perhaps he’ll end up being pursued by contending teams over the summer. (While the Tigers certainly could, in theory, be competitive themselves, that seems quite unlikely given the organization’s direction.)

The 2017 season wasn’t kind to Fiers, who ran a 5.22 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 over 153 1/3 innings. While many of his peripheral numbers fell in their normal ranges, Fiers coughed up a hefty 1.88 dingers per nine.

But he has shown more in the past, including a steady showing in 2015, when he put up 180 1/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball and memorably threw a no-hitter. Fiers has also been healthy of late, taking the ball for at least 28 starts in each of the past three seasons, even if he doesn’t always work deep.

Taking a chance on some kind of turnaround is easy enough for an organization that is entering a rebuilding phase and needs innings. As currently composed, the rotation would likely feature Fiers along with Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann, and lefties Matthew Boyd and Daniel Norris. It’s still possible to imagine the Tigers adding another arm to that mix, even if that just means bringing in some veterans on minor-league pacts to provide depth and spring competition.

Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press first reported the two sides were close to a deal (via Twitter). ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported the agreement and terms (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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