Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Newsstand

2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By | at

Most MLB teams are a few games shy of the halfway point in the regular season.  We last checked in on the projected 2017-18 free agent class on May 18th, and since then plenty has changed.  Below, the projected free agents are ranked based on their current earning power.  To view the full list of players eligible for free agency after the season, click here.

1.  Yu Darvish.  Darvish is in the midst of a fine, healthy season.  Post-Tommy John surgery, he’s logged 34 starts with a 3.26 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 207 1/3 innings.  While the 30-year-old righty may not be one of the ten best starters in MLB right now, he’ll likely be paid like it this winter.  He has a shot at topping the six-year, $155MM contract Jon Lester signed with the Cubs in December 2014.  According to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan on June 19th, Darvish is “very likely to end the season in a Rangers uniform.”  While Texas is firmly in the AL Wild Card mix at present, Passan suggested that the Rangers would keep Darvish even if they fall out of contention by the trade deadline, to maximize their chances of re-signing their ace.

2.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez, 30 in August, has established himself as the best hitter in this free agent class.  Despite missing the first month and a half of the season, Martinez has a good shot at finishing with 30+ home runs for the second time in his career.  For a team looking to add a right-handed middle of the order masher this winter, a six-year offer is possible.  Consider Chris Davis and Shin-Soo Choo, who managed to land seven-year contracts in free agency.  Martinez’s Tigers are currently long shots for the playoffs this year, and the club stands to net only a fourth-round pick if he rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere this winter.  So Martinez is a strong candidate to be traded a month from now, unless the Tigers surge.

3.  Johnny Cueto.  Cueto vs. Arrieta is an interesting argument.  Born 20 days apart in 1986, both righties are having disappointing, home run-prone seasons.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams suggests, Cueto has the edge given his excellence in 2016 and an ability to go deeper into games this season.  With the Giants completely out of contention, Cueto could be one of the best available starting pitchers on the trade market this summer.  However, the pitcher’s opt-out clause adds downside risk for an acquiring team.  Cueto is simply a rental if he opts out, as Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says he’s “planning” to do, but the pitcher would still reserve the right to stick with his remaining four years and $84MM in the event of an injury or further downturn in performance.  The Giants could reduce their asking price on Cueto to accommodate this risk, or better yet, allow a negotiating window to see if the pitcher would provide his potential new team more certainty about his future.

4.  Jake Arrieta.  Arrieta’s supporting stats suggest he’s better than his current 4.67 ERA, but his days as one of baseball’s best starters may be behind him.  In five of his 16 starts, Arrieta has failed to make it out of the fifth inning.  I’m currently projecting a five-year deal, though we haven’t seen that happen recently with a free agent pitcher entering his age-32 season, outside of Zack Greinke’s outrageous six-year pact.  Agent Scott Boras put out his Arrieta talking points to reporters about a month ago, but if they aren’t convincing to you and I, they probably won’t work on MLB GMs either.

5.  Eric Hosmer.  How low was Hoz on April 24th?  An 0-for-4 against Miguel Gonzalez and the White Sox had dropped his season line to .192/.253/.247 through 79 plate appearances.  This was following a very bleak second half in 2016.  But since April 24th, Hosmer has been on fire, hitting .344/.402/.540 in 234 PAs.  For the season as a whole, he’s back at “Good Hosmer” levels – a high-average hitter with some pop.  At the moment, I’m projecting a solid five-year deal for Hosmer.  He doesn’t turn 28 until October, broadening his appeal.  However, there are two other first basemen who could threaten Hosmer’s market: Yonder Alonso and Logan Morrison.   Both have come from out of nowhere to post monster first halves and could offer the allure of better production than Hosmer at a lower price in free agency.  Interest in Hosmer could be further crowded out by Lucas Duda, Mark Reynolds, and Mitch Moreland.

6.  Justin Upton.  Though they go about it in different ways, Upton has been a similar value hitter to Hosmer over the last several years.  While neither player is regarded as a great fielder, it’s a little harder to find a left fielder than a first baseman.  Upton, however, is two years older than Hosmer and faces a decision on his opt-out clause.  If Upton can top four years and $88MM in free agency, it might not be by a ton.  Upton may make the safer choice to stick with his Tigers deal.  On May 25th, Jon Heyman wrote that the possibility of Upton opting out seems “beyond remote,” with a rival GM in agreement.  If the Tigers are to consider trading Upton, they’ll be faced with the same issue the Giants have with Cueto.

7.  Mike Moustakas.  With 20 home runs this season, Moustakas is already threatening his career high of 22.  A 40-homer season isn’t entirely out of the question, given his production to date, and Moose can hold down the hot corner acceptably.  He doesn’t turn 29 until September, and with a strong second half, a five-year deal could be in play.  Older players such as Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Russell Martin, and Brian McCann were all able to land five years in free agency.

8.  Lorenzo Cain.  Cain’s bat has bounced back so far this year, and the Royals’ speedy center fielder makes his first appearance in our top ten.  Cain turns 32 next April, which may put a five-year deal out of reach.  Still, he looks like the best available center fielder this winter.  Like all of the Royals on this list, Cain could be traded in late July if the team falls out of contention.

9.  Masahiro Tanaka.  While Tanaka once seemed a lock to opt out of the remaining three years and $67MM on his Yankees contract, his rough start to the season has brought that into question.  Tanaka, who turns 29 in November, sports a 5.56 ERA and has allowed a whopping 21 home runs in 90 2/3 innings.  That’s good for the fourth-worst home run rate among all qualified starters. Tanaka’s performance has been extremely erratic this year.  He doesn’t look like a $22MM pitcher in free agency, but with a strong second half, a four or five-year deal could be back on the table.

10.  Michael Pineda.  Prior to this year, Pineda’s home run problems could be mostly chalked up to Yankee Stadium.  But this year, in his six road starts, Pineda has somehow seen 30% of fly-balls allowed leave the yard.  The 28-year-old remains as maddening as ever, as three clunkers in June have pushed his ERA up to 4.12.  Pineda is still young and talented enough to score a four-year deal in free agency, as he’s the type of pitcher teams can dream on.

A pair of dominant relievers just missed the top ten.  Wade Davis and Greg Holland have been excellent and will likely be vying for four-year deals in excess of $60MM this winter.  The aforementioned Alonso and Morrison have reinvented themselves and could threaten the top ten before the season is out.  And despite a DL stint for a strained quad, Reds shortstop Zack Cozart still leads all projected free agents with 2.8 wins above replacement this year.

Jonathan Lucroy was arguably the best-hitting catcher in baseball last year, but his bat has gone ice cold in 2017.  Lucroy turned 31 this month, and his performance has put a four-year deal in jeopardy.

Braves Designate Bartolo Colon

By | at

The Braves announced that they have designated veteran righty Bartolo Colon for assignment. Atlanta selected the contract of southpaw Rex Brothers to take his roster spot.

It always hurts to drop a player who’s owed a big salary — in this case, $12.5MM on the year — but his performance left the team with little alternative. Colon, 44, carries an unsightly 8.14 ERA through 63 innings with 6.0 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 and a 45.6% groundball rate.

Though a recent DL placement bought some time and afforded an opportunity for a reset, Colon struggled upon his return. He lasted only four innings against the Padres yesterday, coughing up six earned runs on eight hits and three walks.

Looking a bit deeper, things don’t get any more encouraging. While his velocity is holding steady, Colon has relied completely upon pinpoint command in his long and successful late-career run. That just hasn’t been there in 2017. A comparison of his heat maps (2016 vs. 2017) shows that the burly hurler just isn’t catching the edge as much as he needs to be useful. On the year, he has worked in the zone at a 42.9% rate — far shy of his 52.4% career mark. And when he does throw strikes, they have been knocked around for a .360 BABIP and 1.57 homers per nine.

Whether there’s another comeback attempt left in the tank remains to be seen. Other organizations may well believe there’s a chance he can again walk the fine line he’s been striding in recent years and provide some innings. (The Mets need some depth and would be seem an obvious possibility.) Regardless, there’s no chance that any will stake enough cash on that possibility to submit a claim.

No matter how things shake out, Colon’s amazing late-career run remains one of the game’s most intriguing achievements in recent memory. He sat out the 2010 season with arm issues, then returned for his age-38 campaign. Over the next six years, Colon placed 23rd in fWAR — edging James Shields, Yu Darvish, Doug Fister, and Jeff Samardzija — by running up over thousand innings of 3.63 ERA ball. Last year, Colon gave the Mets 191 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA pitching at 43 years of age, which led to the ill-fated contract from the Braves. He also threw 14 2/3 quality postseason innings (with the 2013 A’s and 2015 Mets) in that period and left an array of memorable moments. (This one takes top honors for me.)

While the Braves are set in the rotation now without Colon — highly regarded prospect Sean Newcomb came up when he hit the DL — the disappointing performance does still tell on the organization. Most notably, Colon won’t be a trade chip, and he also won’t be available to help shoulder the load if the team moves other arms. And the club will owe the balance of his salary, less the pro-rated league-minimum for any time he spends with another team in the majors.

It’ll be interesting, though, to see the two lefties that the move makes way for. Newcomb has pitched well, with a 1.48 ERA over four starts, and figures to get a longer look and a real shot at locking up a rotation spot for 2018. And Brothers, who’s still just 29, has put up some interesting numbers in the minors. After posting huge strikeout figures at Double-A to open the year, the former Rockies reliever has thrown 4 1/3 scoreless at the highest level of the minors. Most notably, Brothers seems to have gotten a handle on the control problems that led to the end of his tenure in Colorado.

Drew Smyly To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

By | at

The Mariners have announced that lefty Drew Smyly will undergo Tommy John surgery for a torn ulnar collateral ligament. He is expected to miss the standard twelve to fifteen months in recovery.

That’s obviously devastating news for the 28-year-old southpaw, who had been hoping to work back from elbow issues that have put him on the shelf all year. He had shown quite well in the World Baseball Classic, with enhanced velocity, leading to hopes for a big first season in Seattle.

Instead, it now seems possible that Smyly won’t ever make an appearance for the M’s, who traded Mallex Smith and others to acquire his rights over the winter. Smith had been added earlier that day in a clearly related swap that sent pitching prospect Luiz Gohara to the Braves.

Smyly is earning $6.85MM this year and would command the same through arbitration in 2018 — his final trip through the process. It’s still possible that Seattle could attempt to work out some kind of arrangement to keep him in the organization for the future, but it obviously makes little sense for the team to pay him a significant salary for a year that will be spent rehabbing.

Last year was a rough one for the southpaw, who scuffled to a 4.88 ERA over 175 1/3 innings, though it also represented his first thirty-start campaign in the big leagues. He also still managed a healthy 8.6 K/9 against 2.5 B/9, with 32 home runs and a below-average 67.7% strand rate contributing to the ugly results.

Given his age, Smyly still has a shot at returning for many more years of pitching. Of course, he’ll need not only to work back from the UCL replacement, but also to find a way to avoid future elbow problems. (He had been among the highest-risk players identified by MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum in a 2016 study, and the risks for another will only increase.)

For the Mariners, the news confirms what the club surely already feared: there won’t be a reinforcement coming to the team in 2017. With Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma showing their age, and James Paxton coming back down to earth of late, there are questions at the front of the staff.

There are depth concerns, too. While Sam Gaviglio owns a 3.38 ERA through 45 1/3 innings, the metrics don’t like his chances to maintain that performance. Similarly, Ariel Miranda has been solid but is benefiting from a likely-unsustainable .226 BABIP. It’s anyone’s guess what the team can hope to receive from Andrew Moore and others.

The fact that there’s a potential need doesn’t mean that the M’s can afford to go out and add a top-line starter, of course. Several quality arms could be available, of course, but there’ll be competition and steep asking prices. While Seattle has positioned itself as a win-now organization, it’s also a notable consideration that the AL West seems out of reach, meaning any present-focused moves come with the likely upside of earning a Wild Card berth.

Cubs To Designate Miguel Montero, Promote Victor Caratini

By | at

The Cubs have decided to designate veteran catcher Miguel Montero for assignment, according to ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (via Twitter). Chicago is set to promote young receive Victor Caratini in his place, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets.

Chicago is making the move the morning after Montero allowed the Nationals to run wild on the basepaths — and then blamed it on starter Jake Arrieta. While both surely have their share of the blame for the seven swiped bags, Montero’s public comments were clearly not taken well by the organization.

Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo didn’t mince words on the topic. This morning, in an interview on ESPN 1000 (Twitter link), he described the situation like this: “When you point fingers you’re a selfish player. We have another catcher that throws everyone out.”

With the Cubs trying to right the ship after a middling start to the year, the organization will now part with a player who was performing at a high level with the bat — despite the ongoing questions about his abilities behind the dish. Through 112 plate appearances, he carries a .286/.366/.439 batting line with four home runs.

As a left-handed-hitting backstop with a history of strong power production, Montero ought to draw interest. But he’s also earning a hefty $14MM salary in the final year of his deal, so the 33-year-old isn’t going to be claimed. Instead, it seems reasonable to expect he’ll either be traded (with the Cubs holding onto a big chunk of change) or allowed to test the open market.

Chicago will now sport a youthful and talented backstop pairing, with the 23-year-old Caratini joining 25-year-old Willson Contreras. The switch-hitting Caratini has enjoyed a breakout year thus far at Triple-A Iowa, slashing a robust .343/.384/.539 with eight home runs over 271 trips to the plate.

Though Caratini is certainly an interesting player who could hold down the reserve role the rest of the way, today’s move also opens at least some possibility that the Cubs will explore the trade market this summer (or look at an option such as current free agent Derek Norris). Even if a significant addition isn’t pursued, Chicago might look into adding another veteran. Perhaps it’s even possible that Kyle Schwarber could return to more regular duties behind the dish once he’s called back up, though undoubtedly the Cubs will also want to continue protecting his knee and allow him to focus on getting right at the plate.

Rays Release Derek Norris

By | at

JUNE 27: Norris has been released after clearing waivers, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.

JUNE 23: The Rays have designated catcher Derek Norris, according to Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). He’ll make way for Wilson Ramos, who’ll be activated from the 60-day DL, while Jesus Sucre will continue on as the team’s reserve backstop.

Norris, 28, was added just before the start of the season after he was released by the Nationals — who had themselves acquired him early in the offseason when Ramos hit the open market. Ramos ended up signing an incentive-laden deal with the Rays, who knew he’d miss the bulk of the first half while completing the rehabilitation of a torn ACL.

While Norris helped bridge to Ramos, and ended his run with the Rays with a bang by hitting his ninth homer tonight, he had struggled at the plate. Largely matching a messy 2016 effort, Norris has managed only a .188/.242/.347 slash in his 198 plate appearances on the year. Still, he figures to draw plenty of interest elsewhere given his past success at the plate and excellent pitch-framing reputation.

The Rays are surely pleased to be getting Ramos back now. If he can provide anything like the production he carried last year — .307/.354/.496 with 22 home runs in 523 plate appearances — he’ll be quite a bargain. With Tampa Bay in fairly solid position to contend at least for a Wild Card, Ramos may deliver a significant boost in advance of the deadline.

Rays To Sign Brendan McKay

By | at

The Rays have agreed to a $7,007,500 signing bonus with No. 4 overall pick Brendan McKay, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). The bonus is the largest ever given to a player under the current set of draft rules, narrowly topping the flat $7MM signing bonus that Kyle Wright received from the Braves earlier this year. McKay is represented by Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was the first to report that McKay was expected to sign with the Rays tonight.

McKay was one of the most famed prospects headed into the draft and was reportedly a strong consideration of the Twins with the No. 1 overall pick. A two-way star at the University of Louisville, McKay was touted as a top five talent for both his abilities on the mound as a left-handed pitcher and for his hitting ability as a first baseman. MLB.com’s Jim Callis calls McKay the best two-way draft prospect since Hall of Famer Dave Winfield (Twitter link).

Entering the draft, McKay was a consensus top four talent, ranking second among draft prospects per Callis and colleague Jonathan Mayo. McKay ranked third on Baseball America’s Top 500 and ESPN’s Keith Law, and fourth in the estimation of Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen. There’s a bit of a split camp when it comes to McKay’s future, as some believe his upside to be greater on the mound while others prefer his bat.

On the mound, McKay is said to have a low-90s fastball that reaches 94 mph and excellent command of the pitch, allowing it to play up late in games as his velocity dips. He also features a plus curveball and is working to improve a changeup that could give him a third above-average offering. This season with Louisville, he posted a 2.56 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 109 innings.

At the plate, McKay has plus power from the left side, which he used to destroy NCAA pitching this season. McKay belted 18 homers and slashed .341/.457/.659 as a hitter, though he does lack speed and is limited to first base on the defensive side of the coin.

Topkin notes in the above-linked story that the Rays will permit McKay to hit and pitch initially, though it’s unclear if Tampa Bay feels that’s a feasible long-term path for McKay. Most likely, he’ll eventually settle into one role or the other, but the notion of a legitimate two-way star is a fun one on upon which to speculate.

Rays Acquire Adeiny Hechavarria

By | at

5:16pm: Both clubs have announced the deal, making it official.

2:26pm: The Rays and Marlins have reportedly agreed to a trade that will send shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria from Miami to Tampa Bay in exchange for minor league outfielder Braxton Lee and minor league right-hander Ethan Clark. The Rays will take on all of Hechavarria’s remaining salary.

Adeiny Hechavarria | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Hechavarria, 27, has been out for more than a month due to a strained oblique muscle but is ready to return to the field. While he doesn’t bring much to the table from an offensive standpoint, he’ll dramatically improve the Rays’ infield defense whenever he’s on the field. The Rays have relied primarily upon Tim Beckham and Daniel Robertson at shortstop in 2017 due to the fact that projected starter Matt Duffy has missed the entire year to date with a heel injury that recently required minor surgery.

From 2015-16, Hechavarria posted excellent defensive marks at shortstop, grading out at +18 Defensive Runs Saved and a +24.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. However, while that superlative glovework was paired with a respectable .281/.315/.374 batting line in 2015, Hechavarria has slashed just .241/.283/.319 in 614 trips to the dish since that time. He’s also earning $4.35MM this season, which was reportedly the Marlins’ primary motivation for finding a trading partner.

The Rays will control Hechavarria for one more season via the arbitration process, if they’re so inclined. Retaining him would mean giving him a raise on that $4.35MM salary in arbitration, though his injury and lack of production at the plate will likely limit the size of the raise to a fairly nominal amount.

Exactly how Hechavarria fits into the mix for the Rays remains to be seen. While he looks like the clear favorite to play shortstop on an everyday basis for the time being, Tampa Bay will need to decide what to do with the combination of Backham, Robertson and, when he returns from the disabled list, Brad Miller — the latter of whom was the primary second baseman prior to getting injured. One of Beckham or Robertson seems likely to be sent out — Beckham is out of options, so Robertson seems likelier — but the eventual returns of Miller and Duffy will further crowd the infield mix.

As for the players that Miami will receive in return, neither Lee nor Clark entered the season rated among Tampa Bay’s top 30 prospects. Lee, a 12th-round pick out of the University of Mississippi back in 2014, is hitting .318/.387/.391 through 296 plate appearances in Double-A this season, although it’s his second season at that level and he’ll turn 24 in August, so he’s not especially young relative to the competition that he’s facing. That production has been buoyed by a .397 BABIP, though, and Clark has never shown any power, with just two homers in his pro career.

Clark, meanwhile, has a 3.11 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate in 55 innings at Class-A Bowling Green. The former 15th-round pick (Crowder College, 2015) is 22 years of age, so he’s not young for the Class-A Midwest League, either.

For the Marlins, the move boils down to primarily a salary dump, as they’ll save $2.33MM by moving Hechavarria and the entirety of his contract. The trade likely opens up an everyday role for 25-year-old JT Riddle to attempt to establish himself as Miami’s new long-term shortstop, though Riddle has been mired in a dreadful slump at the plate and is currently batting just .230/.251/.354 with three homers, nine doubles and a triple through 173 big league plate appearances.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald first reported that Hechavarria was on the trade block, and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports added that he was likely to be traded in the very near future (via Twitter). ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Rays had made significant strides in getting a deal worked out (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweeted that the Rays were the front-runners. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweeted that Lee and Clark were involved in talks, and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald broke the news (on Twitter) that the deal was done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Claim Stephen Vogt

By | at

The Brewers have claimed catcher Stephen Vogt off waivers from the Athletics, reports Jerry Crasnick of ESPN (on Twitter). Milwaukee was the only team to put in a claim for Vogt, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

[RELATED: Updated Brewers Depth Chart]

The 32-year-old Vogt had been in limbo since the A’s designated him for assignment on Thursday. Moving on from the respected clubhouse leader was a difficult decision for Oakland, but the club deemed it necessary after Vogt batted just .217/.287/.357 over 174 plate appearances. That was a steep drop-off for Vogt, who served as a better-than-average offensive catcher from 2013-16, when he combined for a .260/.319/.423 line in 1,478 trips to the plate and earned All-Star nods in each of the previous two seasons.

Defensively, Vogt has struggled behind the plate as a pitch framer throughout his career (per Baseball Prospectus). Vogt hasn’t fared well at keeping would-be base stealers at bay this year, either, having thrown out just 15 percent of runners. However, he did hover around the league-average mark in prior seasons.

In the aggregate, Brewers catchers Manny Pina and Jett Bandy have offered better production than Vogt this year, having combined to slash .250/.307/.416 in 323 PAs. But both have come down to earth at the plate since hot starts, and Bandy has been especially poor lately (he’s hitting .053 this month). Bandy’s also giving the Brewers subpar production behind the plate and, unlike Pina, has a minor league option remaining. As such, it appears he’ll head to Triple-A, which would leave the righty-swinging Pina and the left-handed Vogt to work in a timeshare.

A resurgence from Vogt could help the surprising Brewers stay in the playoff hunt this season (they’re a half-game up on the Cubs for the NL Central lead), but he also comes with further team control. Vogt, who’s earning an affordable $2.965MM salary this season, is scheduled to take two more trips through arbitration.

Avila: Tigers Open To Trade Talks On Veterans

By | at

Tigers GM Al Avila says that his organization is willing to begin listening to inquiries on the organization’s players, Evan Woodberry of MLive.com reports (Twitter links). While that doesn’t mean the club is specifically seeking to make early deals, says Avila, it will be amenable to considering them.

It’s not particularly surprising, at this point, to learn of the Tigers’ current approach. The organization announced last fall that it intended to pursue a younger, less costly roster; while that never really came to pass over the winter, it obviously remains a broad strategic imperative.

With the club now bringing up the rear in the AL Central, with the second-to-worst record in the American League, contention seems unlikely. Instead, it seems, the team will look to add the kind of young talent that will support a more sustainable approach to contention in the future.

Detroit’s most obvious trade asset is slugger J.D. Martinez, who has been outstanding since missing the early part of the season due to injury. Current closer Justin Wilson also stands out. Otherwise, the club will have to navigate no-trade protection and big contracts to find trade partners for many of its best players. Second baseman Ian Kinsler can block moves to ten teams and is controlled with a $10MM option for 2018, though stars Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander enjoy full no-trade rights and much larger salary commitments.

Julio Urias To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

By | at

Young Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias will require anterior capsule surgery on his left shoulder, according to a team announcement. It’s a major operation that clouds the future of the 20-year-old hurler.

Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the expectation is Urias will require an absence of between twelve and fourteen months, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports (links to Twitter). It’s even possible that Urias could pitch in the majors in 2018, he emphasized.

Though the procedure is a scary one for any pitcher, there are some mitigating factors here. Friedman says that Urias suffered the injury in an acute manner and is not dealing with any other injuries in his shoulder. That makes for a relatively more constrained problem than many prior pitchers have dealt with.

Still, it’s hard not to cringe when looking at the list of pitchers who have gone before Urias — though Friedman did specify that none were truly direct comparables. The most famous case is that of Johan Santana, who never really made it back. This 2012 piece from Adam Rubin of ESPN.com talks about the history (before Santana’s ultimate fate was known). And this deep dive from Jon Shepherd of Camden Depot covers the nuts and bolts.

It’s notable that the injury — so far as is presently known — occurred while Urias was on optional assignment. That would mean he will not accrue MLB service time during his recovery. Service-time considerations were only part of the picture for the Dodgers as they handled Urias with care over the past several seasons. Even as he showed immense aptitude for his age, the team took great care to limit his workload and ease him towards the big leagues.

The Mexican prodigy cracked the majors last year at 19 years of age, turning in 77 impressive innings of 3.39 ERA pitching with 9.8 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. It seemed he’d be ready for a more-or-less full season of work in 2017, but struggled early and ended up back at Triple-A. While he was seemingly on track to sort things out and make it back up, Urias apparently suffered the injury in his most recent outing for Oklahoma City.

While Los Angeles can do little but wait and hope that Urias responds well, the news does have near-term ramifications. The Dodgers will no longer be able to count on a boost from the lefty down the stretch, making it seem all the more likely that the team will consider adding a starter at the deadline. Though the rotation goes at least six deep, with other options standing by, the Dodgers are facing a steep test in the NL West and are no doubt aware of the injury risks carried by most of the members of the current staff.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top