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Pirates Designate Jeff Locke For Assignment, Sign Lisalverto Bonilla

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2016 at 8:26pm CDT

8:26pm: Bonilla received a $575K guarantee on his deal, tweets MLB.com’s Adam Berry. Considering the right-hander’s lack of big league experience, the minimal guarantee isn’t much of a surprise.

5:25pm: The Pirates announced on Tuesday that they’ve designated left-hander Jeff Locke for assignment and signed right-hander Lisalverto Bonilla to a Major League contract. The 29-year-old Locke has long stood out as a non-tender candidate due to his recent struggles and his projected $4.2MM salary for the 2017 season (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

[Related: Updated Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart]

Locke functioned as a serviceable back-end starter for the Pirates from 2013-15, pitching to a 3.98 ERA with 6.6 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 with a ground-ball rate north of 51 percent across 466 innings. However, Locke also averaged fewer than six innings per start in that time, and his numbers declined in 2015 before taking an even more drastic downward turn in 2016. This past year, Locke logged a lackluster 5.44 ERA with a diminished 5.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 and a career-low 47.2 percent grounder rate. Right-handed opponents teed off against Locke this year as well, hitting him at a .299/.368/.508 clip in his 127 1/3 innings.

Presumably, the Pirates marketed Locke to other clubs to gauge interest in him and will continue to do so over the next week, but if no deal materializes then Locke will be released into a dismal market for free-agent starters. If it comes to that, it’s certainly plausible that Locke will end up with a 40-man roster spot and perhaps a smaller base salary than his arbitration projection represented in addition to some incentives based on innings pitched. There will be no shortage of teams on the hunt for cheap rotation arms, and Locke is just one year removed from that previously mentioned solid three-year run. (Speculatively speaking, the Marlins could make sense as a landing spot, as former Pirates special assistant/pitching guru Jim Benedict is now in the Miami front office.)

As for Bonilla, the 26-year-old once rated as one of the better prospects in the Phillies and Rangers organizations — he went from Philadelphia to Texas in the 2012 Michael Young trade — but saw his career stall in the upper levels of the Rangers’ system. He landed with the Dodgers on a minor league deal last winter and enjoyed a nice season pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, where he recorded a 3.97 ERA with a 118-to-40 K/BB ratio in 111 innings (13 starts, 18 relief appearances).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs Sign Jon Jay

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2016 at 5:50pm CDT

The Cubs are in agreement with free-agent outfielder Jon Jay on a one-year, $8MM contract, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). The team has now announced the signing as well. Jay, 32 next March, is a client of CAA Sports.

[Related: Updated Chicago Cubs Depth Chart]

Jay missed nearly two months of the 2016 season with a broken forearm that was sustained when he was hit by a pitch, but he was productive when he was healthy enough to take the field. The longtime Cardinals center fielder batted .291/.339/.389 with a pair of homers and 26 doubles in 374 trips to the plate. Jay was leading the National League with 24 doubles at the time he sustained his injury, batting .296/.345/.407 to that point in the season, but he tallied just three extra-base hits over his final 84 plate appearances upon returning from the disabled list.

With Jay in the fold, it now seems likelier than ever that Dexter Fowler’s time with the Cubs has drawn to a close. Jay joins an outfield contingent that also includes Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Jorge Soler, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr. and Matt Szczur. He’ll bring a left-handed bat that doesn’t have a significant platoon split to manager Joe Maddon’s roster and will pair well with the highly touted but inexperienced Almora, a right-handed hitter, in center field. Both Gonzales and CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney suggest that Jay will be paired with Almora in center field (Twitter links). Alternatively, Almora, who has just 80 games at the Triple-A level in his career, could get some additional seasoning in Iowa if it’s deemed necessary in Spring Training.

The addition of Jay gives manager Joe Maddon even more matchup options with his day-to-day lineup, and it also gives the Chicago front office more options to pursue on the trade market this winter. Addison Russell and Javier Baez look to have cemented themselves as the Cubs’ regular middle-infield duo, which should push Zobrist to the outfield more often than not. It’s also conceivable that Schwarber will do some catching for the Cubs again in 2017, freeing up some corner outfield at-bats on those days. Nonetheless, it certainly seems plausible that the Cubs could look to deal from their outfield surplus this winter. Soler has long stood out as a possible trade candidate, and the addition of yet another outfield bat to the mix further frees up president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer to explore trade scenarios involving the former top prospect.

The exact machinations of the Cubs’ 2017 lineup can’t yet be determined, but as the 2016 team illustrated, cultivating this level of depth at the Major League level can prove vital in the event of a significant injury to a key player, as was the case when Schwarber suffered a pair of torn knee ligaments.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Increasingly Optimistic Of Re-Signing Yoenis Cespedes

By Jeff Todd | November 29, 2016 at 12:56pm CDT

There’s “optimism growing” within the Mets organization that the team will be able to reach agreement on a new deal with star free agent Yoenis Cespedes, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. It isn’t precisely clear what has led the team to that interpretation, but evidently there’s some sign of movement on the slugger’s market.

New York is reportedly hoping to avoid guaranteeing five years to Cespedes, even as it has seemed likely he’ll do just that. (Indeed, there’s at least a theoretical case that he could command a sixth season.) Both sides are said to be hopeful of resolving things one way or another by the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, which are scheduled to take place next week.

Coming into the winter, there was no question that both player and team would have interest in a reunion. But there were perhaps two major questions in Cespedes’s free agent case: first, whether significant interest would develop from one or more new organizations; and second, to what extent the Mets would be willing to beat the market to re-sign him. Last offseason, New York was able to land the star on a three-year, $75MM deal by dangling an opt-out, though now he’s the consensus best-player-available and has banked another year of superstar-level production.

It’s hard to guess at what could be driving the Mets’ organization’s apparent belief that it could be moving into position on Cespedes. His market has been relatively quiet on the rumor mill, but that may not reflect the action behind the scenes. Also, continued uncertainty in the CBA could have an impact on what other organizations will be willing to do. Whether not fear of a work stoppage could motivate Cespedes and his reps to work something out with the Mets isn’t know, but perhaps can’t be ruled out. All told, it’s certainly plausible that the sides have moved toward common ground after performing their own internal assessments.

Brewers Sign Eric Thames, Designate Chris Carter

By Jeff Todd | November 29, 2016 at 9:21am CDT

The Brewers have announced a three-year deal with free-agent first baseman Eric Thames, who will reportedly receive a $16MM guarantee. His contract also comes with a $7.5MM option for the 2020 campaign.

Thames will receive $4MM for the 2017 season, followed by $5MM and $6MM salaries. He’s also promised a $1MM buyout on the option and can pick up $500K annually based upon plate appearances. The contract further provides that Thames must give consent to be optioned or outrighted to the minors. And he is entitled to a small assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Further, Milwaukee won’t be allowed to tender Thames at the conclusion of the deal even though he’ll remain eligible for arbitration.

As had been reported last night, the organization will clear a role and a spot by designating Chris Carter for assignment. Though Carter mashed 41 home runs last year, he’s a one-dimensional slugger and wasn’t going to be cheap. MLBTR projected him to earn $8.1MM through arbitration, and McCalvy suggests the team expected to pay even more, perhaps reflecting the possibility that he’d try to argue for his 2015 arb salary as a starting point for a raise.

Given that Carter was designated, it’s still possible he could be dealt. As MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets, the club intends to explore a possible deal in advance of the non-tender deadline, which is on Friday. Milwaukee obviously won’t have much leverage, and probably would have struck a deal already if there was an enticing offer to be found, but it’s still possible to imagine something coming together.

[RELATED: Updated Brewers Depth Chart]

Thames becomes the latest player to move from Korea to the majors, though in his case it’s a return. When last we saw the left-handed hitter in the majors, he was a young outfielder still trying to find his way. Now, he’s a 30-year-old first baseman who established himself as a monster power threat in the hitter-friendly KBO.

Over his three seasons with the NC Dinos, Thames compiled a ridiculous .348/.450/.720 batting line and swatted 124 home runs and 64 stolen bases. While those Ruthian numbers aren’t exactly unheard of in Korea, they do represent top-level production in a competitive league. It’s worth noting, too, that Thames fared rather well in terms of plate discipline, racking up 235 walks to go with his 293 strikeouts.

Just what Thames will deliver upon his return is anyone’s guess. Other KBO-to-majors hitters have been highly productive, such as Jung Ho Kang and Hyun Soo Kim. Things haven’t gone as well for Byung Ho Park, though he has shown that he has legitimate power and is only one season into his contract.

Unlike those players, Thames already has a track record in North American ball. He struck out 175 times in 684 major league plate appearances, all coming in 2011 and 2012, but was hardly unable to compete. Thames carried a .250/.296/.431 batting line and hit 21 home runs in his 181-game MLB run. He has also spent quite a bit of time at Triple-A, racking up a .312/.389/.506 slash and 23 dingers over 870 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors.

It doesn’t hurt that Thames has a history as a corner outfielder. Milwaukee GM David Stearns noted that the added flexibility was seen as a benefit, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets. Just what kind of glove he’d bring in the outfield grass isn’t known, but Thames did play there previously and still evidently can run given his stolen base tallies.

All told, it’s an interesting gambit for the Brewers, who reportedly scouted Thames using only video of his action in Korea. He matched Carter’s long ball output there, but doing so against major league pitching will be quite another matter. Of course, Thames also holds out the promise of delivering value in other areas, and he’ll make quite a bit less annually than Carter stood to earn.

MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reported the signing (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links), ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links), and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (in a tweet) reported on the financial and other contract details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers To Non-Tender Chris Carter

By Jeff Todd | November 28, 2016 at 8:33pm CDT

The Brewers have decided to non-tender power-hitting first baseman Chris Carter, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). MLBTR had projected Carter to earn $8.1MM in arbitration.

Carter, 29, signed on with Milwaukee after he was non-tendered last winter by the Astros, agreeing to a one-year, $2.5MM pact. He rewarded the club with a .222/.321/.499 batting line and a league-leading 41 home runs over 644 plate appearances.

It’s certainly somewhat unusual to see a forty-homer bat set loose despite ongoing control. In fact, Carter has another year of arb eligibility beyond 2017. But it isn’t as if his prodigious power output came as a surprise; he swatted 37 dingers back in 2014.

The trouble with Carter is that he has never managed to reach base consistently. He also led the National League with 206 strikeouts last year. Then there’s the fact that he’s rather limited in the field. Carter’s days in the outfield are probably numbered, and he drew negative metrics last year at first.

MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth recently broke down the arbitration decision facing the Brewers, explaining that it was a tougher call than it seemed at first glance. While more than three quarters of MLBTR readers who participated in a poll felt Carter should be tendered, that wasn’t the course pursued by Milwaukee GM David Stearns.

All signs point to a move back to the American League, where Carter can spend time at DH while perhaps occasionally stepping in at first. Beyond the pure home run output, he has managed to maintain a lifetime 112 OPS+, even if it comes with a cringe-worthy batting average (.218) and OBP (.314). Carter owns a career 33.1% strikeout rate, and that probably won’t change, though he has managed to draw walks at a solid 11.6% clip. And it’s worth noting, too, that he has not traditionally carried very pronounced platoon splits.

[RELATED: Brewers Depth Chart]

Milwaukee, it seems, decided against committing that much cash to a one-dimensional player who would’ve been forced onto the field. The team isn’t exactly bristling with replacement options. The Brewers just claimed and then designated Adam Walker — a younger, cheaper player who carries Carter’s general profile at the plate — and could perhaps give him a chance if he clears waivers. Prospect Jacob Nottingham could also get a look, though perhaps the odds are that the rebuilding club will end up looking outside the organization to fill its needs at first base for 2017.

The Brewers surely would’ve preferred to find a trade partner for Carter, but his salary was likely a deterrent. And the open market is full of power options this winter, with players like Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Pedro Alvarez, and Steve Pearce all expected to be available for one or two-year commitments.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Braves Acquire Alex Jackson

By Jeff Todd | November 28, 2016 at 8:04pm CDT

The Braves have struck a deal to acquire outfield prospect Alex Jackson from the Mariners, per club announcements. Righties Rob Whalen and Max Povse are headed to Seattle in the deal, in which Atlanta will also pick up a player to be named later. The Mariners designated righty Ryan Weber to create 40-man roster space.

Jackson, the sixth overall pick in the 2014 draft, is still just twenty years old and has only played two professional seasons. But GM Jerry Dipoto — who wasn’t at the helm in Seattle when Jackson was selected — evidently didn’t see enough evidence of his future potential.

Despite a tough 2015 debut year, Jackson received some top-100 leaguewide billing entering the 2016 campaign. He did show some improvement at the Class A level, but ended with a relatively meager .243/.332/.408 batting line and 11 home runs over 381 plate appearances. Jackson also went down on strikeouts 103 times while drawing 34 walks.

[RELATED: Updated Braves & Mariners Depth Charts]

Whalen, 22, received his first five major league starts last year, allowing a 18 earned runs and a dozen walks but also limiting opposing batters to twenty base hits while compiling a healthy 25 strikeouts. He was much better in his first attempt at the upper minors, too. Across 120 total frames split between Double-A and Triple-A, Whalen compiled a 2.40 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. The righty originally came to Atlanta from the Mets along with John Gant in the 2015 deadline deal for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe.

Though Whalen figures to play a role in Seattle’s pitching depth, Povse may be the real get here for the M’s. The 23-year-old is a consistent strike thrower despite his 6’8 frame. Working last year at the High-A and Double-A levels, he ran up 158 innings of 3.36 ERA pitching with 7.9 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 — though his strikeout numbers drooped following his promotion.

In adding two players to their roster, the Mariners had to clear a spot. That will mean exposing the 26-year-old Weber to waivers. Actually, Weber landed in Seattle from Atlanta earlier this month through a waiver claim after providing 64 2/3 innings to the Braves over the last two seasons. Though he’s also a low-walk hurler, having averaged just 1.5 free passes per nine in the majors, he has managed only a 5.15 ERA in the bigs while logging 5.8 K/9. Weber has posted sub-3.00 earned run averages in the upper minors in each of the past two seasons, while working mostly in a relief capacity.

MLB, Union To Continue Negotiating Next CBA

By charliewilmoth | November 27, 2016 at 8:06pm CDT

TODAY: The owners made new proposals in regards to the international draft and the luxury tax during today’s talks, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links), though progress is still said to be slow. Talks will continue tomorrow at union meetings in Dallas, where Rosenthal predicts the negotiations “should intensify.”

SATURDAY: A lockout is still a possibility as the league and the union negotiate the next CBA in advance of Thursday’s deadline, but there are strong hopes it can be avoided after MLB offered to remove the current system of draft pick forfeiture associated with the qualifying offer, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports writes. Such a change would make MLB free agency “the freest free agency in sports,” in the words of one of Heyman’s sources. In return, the league wants the players to agree to an international draft.

Under the current system, if a player refuses a qualifying offer, interested teams must give up a top draft choice to sign him. The players dislike this rule because it reduces the market value of players on the edges of the qualifying offer system — including, in recent years, players like Ian Desmond, Kendrys Morales, Stephen Drew and Nelson Cruz. Recently, players such as Neil Walker, Jeremy Hellickson and Brett Anderson have accepted qualifying offers, receiving less long-term security than they perhaps would have gotten on the open market.

The players also do not like the idea of an international draft, which would affect prospects throughout Latin America. Heyman writes, though, that draft pick forfeiture is considerably more costly to them than an international draft would be, particularly since a significant percentage of international bonuses go to players who don’t make the Majors.

Still, there are other topics that must be resolved, Heyman notes. One issue is the luxury tax threshold — the league has reportedly agreed to increase it from $189MM to $200MM, but the two sides have not agreed on a final number.

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal had previously reported that a lockout was a possibility. Reporting since then from Buster Olney and Jayson Stark of ESPN has suggested that there was reason for optimism that a deal could be completed.

Diamondbacks Acquire Walker, Marte From Mariners For Segura, Haniger, Curtis

By charliewilmoth | November 23, 2016 at 9:43pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have announced that they’ve acquired starter Taijuan Walker and shortstop Ketel Marte from the Mariners for middle infielder Jean Segura, outfielder Mitch Haniger and lefty Zac Curtis. The Mariners also announced that they’ve designated switch-pitcher Pat Venditte for assignment. Yahoo! Sports Jeff Passan was first to tweet that a deal was close between the two teams.

The trade marks quite the opening salvo for Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, who has added two very intriguing young players to his new organization. Walker, 24, began his career as a top-ten prospect in all of baseball, and while he hasn’t yet emerged as a standout starter, he also hasn’t done much to dim his status as a top young talent. His name had repeatedly come up as a speculative possibility in potential blockbusters, including one in 2014 involving David Price, but he managed to stick with Seattle and put in two-plus seasons in their rotation before finally being dealt. In 2016, he posted a 4.22 ERA, with 8.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 134 1/3 big-league innings, bringing a strong mid-90s fastball in the process.

Walker’s upside remains considerable, and he’s under control for the next several seasons — he’s eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter as a Super Two player (and is projected to make $2.8MM), and he can’t become a free agent until after the 2020 season. He battled a foot injury in the middle of the 2016 campaign and had surgery to address it after the season, but there’s no reason to expect that to be a major issue going forward. He’ll join some combination of Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Patrick Corbin, Shelby Miller, Rubby De La Rosa, Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley in the Diamondbacks’ rotation.

Marte is a not-to-be-overlooked component of Arizona’s side of the deal. He only recently turned 23 and already has the equivalent of a season’s worth of big-league plate appearances under his belt. While he struggled both offensively and defensively in 2016 (posting a .259/.287/.323 line and a significantly below average UZR), he fared well enough in the minors to get to the big leagues at age 21, and certainly has time to improve. If he develops, he could become the Diamondbacks’ starting shortstop for the next several seasons.

“Young, controllable pitching is hard to find, and adding Taijuan to the rotation gives us significant depth in that area,” Hazen says. “In Ketel, we believe we have acquired a talented switch-hitting shortstop to join a very solid core of young middle infielders.”

From the Mariners’ perspective, the deal seems to hinge to a large degree on Segura’s breakout performance last season. Segura batted .319/.368/.499 with 20 homers in an outstanding 2016, posting 5.0 fWAR of value in his first season with the Snakes. (Credit former GM Dave Stewart for acquiring Segura in one of his better trades in his short tenure in Arizona.)

Segura’s previous history is erratic, however — he failed to clear a .300 OBP in either 2014 or 2015 with the Brewers. Some of Segura’s struggles might have been related to the tragic death of his infant son in the middle of the 2014 season, but his difficulties on the field are still worth considering. Also, unlike Marte (who is controllable for five more years), Segura only has two years of control remaining before he’s eligible for free agency. (MLBTR projects he’ll make $7.3MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility this offseason.) Segura had primarily been a second baseman with the Diamondbacks, but it appears likely he’ll play mostly shortstop with the Mariners, who have Robinson Cano at second.

The 25-year-old Haniger made his big-league debut in 2016 and batted a modest .229/.309/.404 in 123 plate appearances. He did, however, grade well defensively in a small sample, and he batted an excellent .341/.428/.670 in 312 plate appearances at Triple-A Reno, demonstrating outstanding power (with 20 home runs, albeit in a favorite hitting environment) and good plate discipline. Nonetheless, he was not particularly highly regarded — MLB.com ranked him just 21st among Diamondbacks prospects, noting the likelihood that he would wind up as a good fourth outfielder, and Baseball America (subscription required) didn’t even mention him in their midseason writeup on the Diamondbacks system. Still, he wouldn’t be the first young player with excellent minor league numbers to go underrated by prospect hounds, and he could contribute to a thin Mariners’ outfield immediately (likely mostly as a corner outfielder, since the M’s have Leonys Martin to man center). The Diamondbacks initially acquired him in 2014 when they traded Gerardo Parra to the Brewers.

Curtis has the lowest profile of any of the five players in the deal, but he’s an interesting fifth piece. He was pitching for Class A+ Visalia in 2016 when he got promoted all the way to the big leagues, thanks to a stat line that included 22 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he didn’t fare well there, posting a 6.75 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 8.8 BB/9 in 13 1/3 innings, but he got significantly better results after heading back to Double-A Mobile and might eventually reemerge as a good bullpen arm once he has more seasoning. In 111 minor league innings, he’s totaled 169 strikeouts against 35 walks. Curtis is undersized at 5’9″ and averaged a relatively modest 90.9 MPH on his fastball in the big leagues, though, so he probably doesn’t profile as a future power reliever.

Venditte pitched 13 1/3 innings with the Mariners in 2016 and allowed ten runs. The 31-year-old has attracted plenty of curiosity for his ability to pitch with either hand, but despite his consistent platoon advantage, he has just a 4.97 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in parts of two seasons in the big leagues. Most of the damage done against Venditte has come from right-handed batters, as opposing lefties have hit just .179/.242/.366 against him.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest

By Tim Dierkes | November 23, 2016 at 8:35pm CDT

Only a few hours remain in the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest! Click here to log in with Google or Facebook and predict which team you think each of the remaining top 50 free agents will sign with. For each player, you can select one of the 30 MLB teams, as well as Retirement, Korea, or Japan. Be sure to use the “Save Picks” button at the bottom each time you make a change. Make sure you have something chosen for all 50 players by midnight central time tonight. Finish your picks now!

This year, we rebuilt the contest to allow people to log in with Google or Facebook. We’re doing two things with your information: saving your picks, and displaying your name on the contest leaderboard (which is still in progress).

Other contest notes:

Players in the contest who have already signed are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
The leaderboard will rank contestants by “batting average” on correct picks. The leaderboard will show full names of contestants.
Ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents. If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR’s discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
Prizes are a work in progress, but I do intend to give something out for the top finishers.
If you experience a technical issue, please use our contact form.

Report: Lockout On The Table As CBA Nears Expiration

By Jeff Todd | November 23, 2016 at 4:38pm CDT

4:33pm: There is optimism that a lockout can be avoided, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes. Stark cites two sources who tell him there is a “path to a deal.” Both sides, however, seem to believe that the lockout suggests December 1 is a “hard deadline” to reach an agreement. If there were to be a lockout in December, it wouldn’t necessarily result in missed games, but it could delay the progress of the offseason and cut off player benefits.

TODAY, 12:32pm: ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (Insider link) that there’s no particular reason to think that the saber-rattling will lead to a significant interference in labor relations, stating his own “educated guess” that compromise will be found. Sources do tell him that the league side is indeed “incredibly frustrated” by the union’s foot-dragging and unwillingness to move on issues like the international draft. And that could still lead to a standoff that impacts the progress of this winter’s trade and free agent markets. But as Olney explains, there’s relatively little at stake in the talks (in relation to the immense amount of money that both sides are making) and plenty of time before the owners and union would risk interfering with the 2017 season.

YESTERDAY: Major League Baseball’s owners “will consider” instituting a player lockout if a new collective bargaining agreement between the league and the MLB Player’s Association can’t be found, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The current CBA is set to expire on December 1st, and the sides are said to be at an impasse over several matters.

This is the first time we’ve heard a firm report suggesting that there could be a work stoppage — though, of course, there’s no imminent threat to actual baseball games with Spring Training not set to begin until mid-February and the regular season still four months off. It has long been assumed that the owners and union would resolve any differences, particularly given that the game has continued to experience growth in revenue, but talks have dragged on longer than expected.

In considering a lockout, the owners would be threatening to interfere with the conduct of the offseason’s business, much of which remains to be completed. Some have suggested that a failure to reach agreement by the new deadline might result in a continuation of the status quo; presumably, that’s still also a possibility. But if a deal can’t be struck and the owners take a hard line, it might well result in a freeze on transactions right before the Winter Meetings.

It’s important to bear in mind that there are strategic reasons for suggesting the possibility of a lockout, which would require a vote of ownership to be instituted. And with just over a week left to finish negotiations, there’s still time for a resolution. Commissioner Rob Manfred says he’s still “committed to the idea that we’re going to make an agreement before expiration,” while union chief Tony Clark declined comment.

The sides are certainly jockeying for position on the remaining issues; no doubt, each is familiar with the other’s positions at this stage. The key matters yet to be determined are, however, rather notable. According to Rosenthal, the owners offered to get rid of any tying of free agents to draft compensation (as currently embodied in the qualifying offer system), but requested an international draft in exchange. The union, it seems, has lined up behind the idea that the draft would be too onerous.

There’s also disagreement regarding the competitive-balance tax and the Joint Drug Agreement. As to the former issue, it seems largely a matter of divvying up dollars and figuring out ways to ensure that teams put any subsidies into their major league roster. With regard to the latter, it seems that all are agreed on the need to add force to the JDA, but the players are asking to be compensated in exchange.

Rosenthal spoke with sources to get a read of the situation, and his article is well worth a full read. The takeaway seems to be that there’s still a path toward completing an agreement before the CBA expires, but the players are also prepared to dig in their heels. There’s certainly much to be lost for both sides in the event of a serious labor dispute, and that fact remains the best reason to retain hope that a lockout can be avoided. While this bit of brinkmanship is hardly determinitive, though, it’s also a notable sign that there have been real difficulties in seeing eye to eye.

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