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Twins Claim Cole Irvin

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The Twins announced Monday that they’ve claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Orioles, who’d designated him for assignment last week. Minnesota opened a 40-man roster spot by designating right-hander Randy Dobnak for assignment. Irvin will join the roster tomorrow, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets. The veteran lefty would not be eligible for the Twins’ postseason roster, given that he’s being acquired after Sept. 1.

Irvin, 30, will give the Twins some rotation depth for the final couple weeks of the season and can be controlled for two additional seasons via arbitration if the Twins choose. He’s had an up-and-down tenure with the Orioles after being acquired from the A’s in the 2022-23 offseason in a trade that sent infield prospect Darell Hernaiz to Oakland.

Irvin was initially acquired to help stabilize the O’s rotation. From 2021-22, he gave the A’s 62 starts (359 1/3 innings) of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but also a very strong 5.2% walk rate. As a homer-prone lefty who averaged 91 mph with his heater, Irvin had clearly benefited to an extent from the Athletics’ cavernous home park, but his Baltimore tenure got off to a far shakier start than anyone could’ve reasonably expected. Irvin was shelled for 15 runs in his first 12 2/3 innings, and the O’s optioned him to Triple-A after just three appearances. He spent much of the remainder of the ’23 season as an up-and-down swingman.

The 2024 season brought a slew of injuries to the Baltimore staff, and with it came a fresh opportunity for Irvin. He ran with it for a good portion of the season, as he’s rattled off 16 starts and another nine relief appearances — several of them covering three or four innings. In 107 1/3 frames this year, Irvin carries a 4.86 earned run average. He’s fanned 16.2% of his opponents against a 5.3% walk rate — marks that mirror his rate stats from his peak days in Oakland. Home runs have again been an issue (1.43 HR/9), but for an injury-ravaged Twins club that is currently relying on three rookies (Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews) behind Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober, Irvin could provide some veteran help to the staff, whether in the rotation or as a long reliever.

Irvin is earning $2MM this season after avoiding arbitration over the winter. He’s owed about $151K of that between now and season’s end, and the Twins will assume that in full. If he’s retained via arbitration, Irvin isn’t likely to be a particularly costly option; his modest workload and generally pedestrian results this season should keep next year’s salary in the rough vicinity of $3MM, assuming he’s tendered a contract. He’s out of minor league options, so Irvin will need to stick on the Twins’ roster this year and throughout the offseason or else once again be designated for assignment and likely exposed to outright waivers.

Irvin hasn’t started a game since Aug. 27, when he tossed 60 pitches over 4 1/3 innings. He did toss three innings and 43 pitches on Sept. 2, plus another one-inning relief outing on Sept. 9 (15 pitches). He may not be stretched out to jump into the rotation and throw 100 pitches, but if the Twins need, he should be an option to pitch as many as three to five innings, depending on pitch count. Whether that’ll happen or whether Irvin will simply head to the ’pen isn’t yet clear. Lopez will start tonight’s series opener in Cleveland, and he’s slated to be followed by Matthews, Ober and Woods Richardson, respectively. Of that group, Matthews has struggled the most. He’s lined up to start tomorrow. Irvin could piggyback with him or replace him outright, depending on how the Twins feel about the matchup.

In order to make room on the roster, Dobnak will be designated for assignment for a second time in his career. The right-hander was a sensational story in 2019, ascending from indie-ball hurler and part-time Uber driver to the Twins’ big league rotation. He pitched well enough in that debut showing and in the shortened 2020 season (combined 3.12 ERA, 15.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 58.8 GB% in 75 innings) that the Twins signed him to a five-year, $9.25MM contract with a trio of club options.

Injuries and a downturn in performance have soured that modestly priced deal, however. Dobnak was torched for a 7.64 ERA in 2021, removed from the 40-man roster in 2022 and passed through waivers. He posted an ERA north of 5.00 in Triple-A from 2022-23 but has had a rebound in St. Paul this year, logging a 3.90 ERA in 23 starts and four relief appearances for the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate. That prompted a fresh look in the majors, but Dobnak allowed five runs on nine hits and five walks with seven punchouts in 7 2/3 innings.

Dobnak is still owed a bit more than $170K of this year’s $2.25MM salary, plus a $3MM salary in 2025 and at least a $1MM buyout on the first of his three club options. That remaining $4.17MM on his contract will all but assure he clears waivers. He’s been outrighted before, so Dobnak will technically have the opportunity to reject the assignment, but doing so would mean forfeiting the remainder of that salary. There’s no chance he’ll do that, so assuming he indeed goes unclaimed, he’ll remain with the organization in Triple-A but no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.

Matt Adams Announces Retirement

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Veteran first baseman Matt Adams has announced his retirement from baseball. The 36-year-old penned a lengthy farewell to the sport he loves and thanked his teammates, coaches, clubhouse staff, fans and family in a statement you can read in full on Adams’ social media accounts (X link and Instagram link). Adams will sign a ceremonial one-day contract with the Cardinals next week, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, giving him the opportunity to retire as a member of the organization that first selected him in the 23rd round of the 2009 draft.

The 6’3″, 260-pound Adams made his big league debut just three seasons after being drafted, getting a May/June look during his age-23 season and hitting .244/.286/.384 in his first taste of the majors. By 2013, he’d establish himself as a fixture in the Cardinals’ lineup, hitting .284/.335/.503 and popping 17 homers in just 319 plate appearances. “Big City” went on to produce solid offense in the middle of the order from 2013-17, hitting a combined .272/.317/.473 with 73 homers, 97 doubles and six triples in 1762 plate appearances from ’13-’17.

After moving Matt Carpenter to first base for the 2017 season, the Cardinals no longer had regular at-bats for Adams at first base, however. An early-season injury to Freddie Freeman in Atlanta created an opportunity, and the Cardinals flipped Adams to the Braves in exchange for then-prospect Juan Yepez. Adams caught fire in Atlanta, hitting so well early in his time there that Freeman even briefly moved across the diamond upon his return from the IL and played 16 games at third base as a means of keeping both lefty sluggers in the lineup (prior to the NL’s implementation of the designated hitter).

Adams hit free agency that offseason and signed with the Nationals on a one-year deal. He hit well as the Nats’ primary first baseman (.257/.332/.510), and when the Nats wound up embarking on a late-August sell-off that year, Adams found himself on the waiver wire, where he was claimed — by the Cardinals. His return to St. Louis didn’t go as well as his original stint, however. He slashed just .158/.200/.333 in 60 plate appearances over the season’s final six weeks.

Adams became a free agent again at season’s end, and almost one year to the date of his original deal with the Nationals, he re-signed in Washington on another one-year contract in D.C. It was a fateful return, as although Adams hit only .226 with a .276 on-base percentage, he provided a key source of lefty power and big bat off the bench in what wound up being the Nationals’ Cinderella season. Adams belted 20 homers for manager Davey Martinez’s club as the Nats embarked on a near-unfathomable rebound from a 19-31 start to win the 2019 World Series.

That 2019 season marked the last in which Adams saw even semi-regular action in the majors. He returned to Atlanta for a brief spell in 2020, appearing in 16 games but struggling at the plate. He had a similarly brief run with the Rockies in 2021, logging 22 games and again finding it difficult to recapture his form. Adams spent the 2022 season with the Kansas City Monarchs of the independent American Association and returned to the Nationals organization in 2023, though he spent the entire year with their Triple-A club. He’s been playing with the Mexican League’s Toros de Tijuana this season (.272/.309/.491, 13 homers) but will now formally call it a career just two weeks after turning 36.

Adams doesn’t sound like someone who plans to be away from baseball for long. In his retirement statement, he expressed an eagerness to travel down a new path within the game.

“I’m excited to seek out opportunities in coaching, where I can continue to contribute to the sport I love,” wrote Adams. “Over the past few years, I’ve had the privilege of taking on a mentoring role as a veteran player. Through that experience, I’ve found a new way to love the game — one that allows me to share my knowledge and help guide the next generation of athletes. That’s the direction I’m eager to explore. … I look forward to the chance to keep competing and winning, this time from a different vantage point.”

With his playing days now formally in the rearview mirror, Adams will turn the page on a career that saw him bat .258/.306/.463 in 2614 major league plate appearances. Along the way, he totaled 624 hits, including 118 home runs, 130 doubles and six triples. Adams scored 297 runs in his career, plated 399 of them, and participated in three different postseasons (2013, 2014 and that 2019 World Series season). He suited up for four major league teams and earned nearly $15MM in salary while accruing more than eight years of big league service. Best wishes to Matt as he takes the next step in his baseball journey.

Tyler Glasnow “Highly Unlikely” To Return This Year Due To Elbow Sprain

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts delivered some tough news to reporters this afternoon, as he indicated to the team’s beat (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com) that right-hander Tyler Glasnow has been diagnosed with a sprained elbow and will be shut down indefinitely, leaving him “highly unlikely” to pitch again in 2024. Glasnow suffered a setback in his throwing program yesterday and underwent testing that ultimately revealed the sprain.

The update is a devastating blow to a Dodgers rotation that has been in flux for much of the year due to injuries despite the extreme depth they came into the season with on paper. The 30-year-old Glasnow was an All-Star for the first time in his career during his debut season with L.A. and posted a 3.49 ERA with a 2.90 FIP and a 32.2% strikeout rate this year, but he was unfortunately limited to just 22 starts and 134 innings this season. While that volume falls short of a full season of work, both totals actually constitute career-bests for the righty, whose previous career-highs were set last year at 21 starts and 120 innings of work respectively.

Glasnow’s lack of durability throughout his big league career didn’t deter the Dodgers from dealing outfielder Jonny DeLuca and right-hander Ryan Pepiot to the Rays to acquire him alongside outfielder Manuel Margot this offseason, nor did it get in the way of the club finalizing an extension that guaranteed the right-hander just over $111.5MM in new money from 2025 to 2028. Pepiot, who has posted a 3.76 ERA in 23 starts with the Rays this year, has dealt with injury issues of his own this season, and given Glasnow’s success with the club when healthy the Dodgers surely don’t regret adding his top-of-the-rotation caliber arm to their starting mix.

That doesn’t make the news regarding Glasnow’s likely absence from their postseason run any less frustrating, however. The Dodgers laid out well over a billion dollars in guaranteed contracts this winter in pursuit of their first World Series championship in a full season since 1988 and in doing so added Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Teoscar Hernandez to a core of players that already included stars such as Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. While the additions of Hernandez and Ohtani have taken the club’s offense to new levels even in spite of absences from Betts and Freeman throughout the year, the rotation once again figures to be a significant question mark for the club this October without Glasnow to help stabilize things.

Yamamoto returned from the 60-day injured list earlier this month and figures to start Game 1 for the Dodgers this winter, with deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty standing out as their most likely contender to start Game 2. Who will follow those two in the club’s postseason rotation is not yet clear, however. Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller have both struggled badly in the majors this year with ERAs of 5.95 and 8.17 respectively, making them lackluster options to start potentially pivotal playoff games. Rookie Landon Knack has pitched fairly well in ten starts for the club this year, but the Dodgers surely would prefer a more experienced arm to follow Yamamoto and Flaherty.

Of course, the returns of other injured pitchers could help to bolster the club’s rotation ahead of October. Rookie Gavin Stone would be a tantalizing option given his 3.53 ERA in 25 starts this year, but the righty is currently on the shelf due to elbow inflammation with no clear timetable for return. Veteran southpaw Clayton Kershaw is also on the injured list, but has expressed hope that he’ll be able to return this year and would help to fortify the club’s rotation mix even as he’s posted a pedestrian 4.50 ERA in seven starts this year. Roberts also suggested earlier this week that there was a “very slim” possibility that Ohtani could be made available to pitch during the postseason, but it’s impossible to imagine the Dodgers changing their plans for the superstar based on today’s news regarding Glasnow.

Mets Promote Luisangel Acuña

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TODAY: The Mets officially announced Acuna’s call-up, and outfielder DJ Stewart was optioned to Triple-A to create space on the 28-man roster.

SEPT. 13: The Mets are planning to promote top prospect Luisangel Acuña, as confirmed by Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase (first reported by X user Jorge L. Seoud H.). Acuña is already on the 40-man, but the Mets will need to make a corresponding move to open a space for him on the active roster.

Acuña, 22, signed with the Rangers as an international free agent in 2018. He joined the Mets at last year’s trade deadline in the deal that sent Max Scherzer back to Texas. Entering the season, Keith Law of The Athletic ranked him as the No. 2 prospect in the Mets system. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had him at No. 3, as did MLB Pipeline, while Baseball America ranked him at No. 4. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wasn’t quite as high on Acuña but still ranked him as the No. 6 prospect in the system.

Unfortunately, Acuña has struggled at Triple-A in 2024, putting up a .654 OPS and 69 wRC+ in 131 games. On the bright side, he has 40 stolen bases and the skills to play plus defense at second base and center field. Still, there is no denying that he has been recalled due to the team’s desperation – not his own merit – given the lack of infield options on the Mets’ major league roster. With Jeff McNeil out for the rest of the regular season – and possibly the playoffs, too – Jose Iglesias has moved into the everyday lineup and Eddy Alvarez is the only infielder left on the bench. However, Alvarez joined the Mets organization after September 1, which means he won’t be eligible for the postseason roster. New York will need a new infielder for the bench once October rolls around.

On top of that, Francisco Lindor exited today’s game against the Phillies with back tightness. He’s day-to-day and isn’t particularly concerned about the injury (per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com), but it’s unclear when he’ll be back in the lineup. He told reporters after the game (including DiComo) that all he can do is wake up tomorrow, see how he feels, and go from there. Even if Lindor is only out for a game or two, it makes sense that the Mets would like to have another infielder on the active roster.

Rangers Activate Jacob deGrom

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Today: The Rangers have officially activated deGrom to make his first start of the 2024 season. In a pair of corresponding moves, the team optioned right-hander Owen White to Triple-A and transferred Corey Seager to the 60-day IL.

Sept. 10: Jacob deGrom makes his season debut on Friday. The Rangers announced that the two-time Cy Young winner will start that evening’s game in Seattle. It will be his first major league appearance since April 2023. deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery last June.

While deGrom’s return comes too late to give Texas any hope of a playoff push, it’s part of what should be a very exciting series. The Rangers will turn to top prospect Kumar Rocker for his MLB debut in Thursday’s opener. deGrom goes the following night. Manager Bruce Bochy told the beat this evening that Max Scherzer will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start on Saturday (X link via Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News). Texas will need to create space on the 40-man roster for both Rocker and deGrom.

deGrom has gotten through four rehab starts within the past few weeks. He has mowed down minor league hitters, striking out 15 while allowing only five baserunners over 10 2/3 innings. deGrom tossed four scoreless innings in just 49 pitches with Double-A Frisco on Saturday. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com wrote over the weekend that the Rangers had envisioned deGrom throwing somewhere around 60 pitches in that outing, though they ultimately elected to cap him at four innings when he pitched so efficiently. That could point to a potential 65-75 pitch count during this week’s start.

The Rangers should get three or four starts from deGrom before the end of the season. They’re not going to be of much significance in the standings (beyond the indirect effect of playing the Mariners, a fringe contender, at least once). Getting deGrom back for a few starts should at least give the pitcher and the front office some comfort going into the offseason. deGrom had battled a handful of arm issues late in his Mets tenure. He only managed six starts and 30 1/3 innings with Texas before suffering the significant elbow injury.

Few players are more important to the Rangers’ hope of a return to contention in 2025. deGrom may still be the best pitcher on the planet when healthy. He was utterly dominant for the Mets when he was able to pitch. He’d carried that form over in his first month in a Texas uniform, working to a 2.67 earned run average while striking out almost 40% of batters faced.

deGrom is going into the third season of a five-year, $185MM free agent deal. He’ll make $40MM next season, followed by successive salaries of $38MM and $36MM through 2027. The Tommy John surgery triggered a conditional team option in his deal for 2028. That’s valued at $20MM, though deGrom could push it to $30MM if he finishes in the top five in Cy Young balloting in any of the next three years.

Scherzer, meanwhile, has been out since the start of August because of a shoulder issue. He’d also missed most of the season’s first half rehabbing offseason back surgery and battling a nerve problem in his throwing hand. Scherzer has been limited to eight starts this season, turning in a 3.89 ERA across 39 1/3 innings. The future Hall of Famer will be a free agent next offseason. Scherzer has already declared he intends to continue pitching; he’ll be one of the top risk/reward plays in the starting pitching class.

Rangers Extend Chris Young

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The Rangers on Friday announced that they’ve agreed to a multi-year contract extension with general manager Chris Young, who’d been in the final season of his previous deal, which ran from 2021-24. The team did not specify the length of the new contract. Young was also promoted and now holds the title president of baseball operations.

“Chris Young’s impact on the Texas Rangers organization has been immense over the last four years,” managing partner and majority owner Ray Davis said within today’s press release. “His leadership and vision were instrumental in helping bring a World Series championship to Arlington for the first time, and he is passionate about producing a consistent winner on the field year in and year out for our fans. Our baseball operations group, from scouting and player development to the Major League team, is in great hands with CY at the helm for many years to come. I look forward to continuing our work together.”

Young, 45, joined the Rangers’ front office in Dec. 2020 after spending two seasons working in MLB’s central office as the league’s senior vice president of on-field operations, initiatives and strategy. Given his background, he was a somewhat out-of-the-box hire, but the Rangers weren’t the only club with interest. Mets owner Steve Cohen also spoke to Young about a potential baseball operations leadership role, but Young removed his name from consideration for that post. Just weeks later, he accepted the title of GM with the Rangers. As a Dallas native, it was a homecoming for Young and helped to explain why he quickly withdrew from consideration for the Mets post.

At the time of his hiring, Young was second on the Rangers’ baseball ops hierarchy to then-president of baseball operations Jon Daniels. Daniels had helmed baseball operations in Arlington since 2006, but Young’s hiring proved to be a portent for a changing of the guard. Less than two years after tabbing Young as the general manager, Daniels was fired in Aug. 2022. Young took over baseball operations and, in his first full season steering the ship, saw his club defy all preseason expectations by bringing home the first World Series title in franchise history.

The success can hardly be attributed to Young alone, of course. Daniels’ fingerprints were all over the 2023 Rangers, whether in the form of prior free agent signings (e.g. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray), previous trades (Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe, Mitch Garver) or homegrown contributors (Josh Jung, Leody Taveras, Jose Leclerc). That said, it was Young who was leading the front office when Texas signed Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Robbie Grossman and others. He also oversaw the acquisitions of Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton and Aroldis Chapman (admittedly paying what now looks like an excessively steep price of Cole Ragans). This past offseason’s slate of modest, payroll-limited moves included fruitful signings of Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Michael Lorenzen.

The 2024 season hasn’t at all been the followup to last year’s title that ownership, Young, the rest of the organization and fans of the Rangers envisioned. It was well known heading into the year that Texas would have several key arms on the shelf (Scherzer, deGrom, offseason signee Tyler Mahle), but the hope was that last year’s juggernaut offense would help keep the team afloat until those big arms returned to the fray.

That didn’t happen at all, however. Seager was injured early (and recently returned to the IL due to a need for sports hernia surgery). Jung missed considerable time for a second straight season. Garcia, Lowe, Taveras, young outfielder Evan Carter and catcher Jonah Heim have all taken significant steps back. Top prospect Wyatt Langford, last year’ No. 4 overall pick, broke camp with the team and has picked up steam since a slow start. However, he’s still sitting on a roughly league-average batting line and hasn’t broken out into immediate stardom like many hoped after a torrid spring training.

The result has been a 71-76 record that’s left the Rangers 7.5 games out of both the division lead and the Wild Card chase. Texas hasn’t technically been mathematically eliminated from postseason play yet, but short of a miraculous scenario where they win out for the rest of the season, they’re not going to get there. Some of that is reflective of moves that haven’t paid off and missed opportunities elsewhere. Some is indicative of the manner in which ownership’s unwillingness to spend amid concern about their television revenue effectively tied Young’s hands last winter.

Regardless of this year’s poor results, it seems ownership remains convinced that Young is the right voice to continue guiding the franchise moving forward. The Princeton grad has long been touted as one of the game’s brightest and most inquisitive minds, and he sees the game differently than many of his peers, given his 13-year career as a pitcher with the Padres, Mets, Mariners, Royals and very same Rangers he’s now tasked with constructing.

Why The Nationals Could Pursue A Juan Soto Reunion

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The regular season hasn’t even drawn to a close yet, but there’s already ample anticipation regarding what a potential Juan Soto free agency will look like. The 26-year-old superstar will hit the market as the top free agent and one of the most coveted talents in the history of free agency. A bidding war between the Yankees and Mets is already widely expected, and big-money clubs like the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Giants have also been speculated as potential landing spots. Nary a major free agent goes by without Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller at least throwing his hat into the ring. Other clubs will surely be in the mix.

Among the other potential suitors, writes Jorge Castillo of ESPN, could be Soto’s original club. The Nationals “would love a reunion” with Soto, reports Castillo, though it’s not yet clear whether ownership will be willing to offer more than they did when Soto rejected a 15-year, $440MM extension. That decision floored many fans, but it’s proved prudent in the long run. That 15-year term would’ve included Soto’s final two arbitration seasons. He earned a combined $54MM in those two seasons anyhow. Soto need “only” top the remaining $386MM to come out ahead on the gambit, and it would be stunning if he fell short of that mark, given his age, track record and sensational platform season for free agency.

Could that offer still come from the Nationals? It’s impossible to know precisely where the Lerner family (who own the Nationals) lie in terms of their comfort level, but there’s reason to believe they could put forth an even larger offer than last time.

For one, the Nats were in the nascent stages of a rebuild when they made that original offer to Soto. Max Scherzer and Trea Turner had been traded to the Dodgers at the prior season’s deadline. The Nationals weren’t close to competing then but are exponentially closer to doing so now, thanks in no small part to the return they received from trading Soto in the first place. MacKenzie Gore has seized a rotation spot. CJ Abrams has solidified himself as their shortstop, second-half slump notwithstanding. Outfielder James Wood was ranked the top prospect in baseball when he debuted in July. Fellow outfielder Robert Hassell III and left-hander Jarlin Susana are still in the minors.

It also bears emphasizing that the Lerner family was exploring a potential sale of the team at the time. That process began early in 2022. Several potential ownership groups spoke to the current owners about the possibility, but two years later, managing principal owner Mark Lerner (the son of the late Ted Lerner, who passed away in 2023) publicly stated that his family is no longer looking to find a buyer. “We have determined, our family has determined, that we are not going to sell the team,” Lerner told the Washington Post in February.

That shift in long-term planning obviously carries ramifications with regard to how the Lerner family might allocate its resources. While putting forth a $400MM+ offer amid a potential sale process shows a clear willingness to spend, there were also presumably limits as to how much money ownership wanted to put on the long-term books. Any interested buyers would effectively be on the hook for paying out the remainder of that sum, after all — particularly since the offer reportedly did not contain any deferred money (a departure from their prior big-money contracts, which nearly all included deferrals).

Now, more than two years after that extension offer was made, the Nats are closer to contention and have a far cleaner payroll outlook. This is the final season of Patrick Corbin’s six-year contract. The only players guaranteed any money beyond the current year are Stephen Strasburg, whose career is over but who is still signed through 2026, and catcher Keibert Ruiz, whose relatively modest $50MM extension runs through 2030 and comes with a $6.25MM average annual value. Consider that at their peak in 2019, the Nationals finished the season with a hefty $205MM payroll, per Cot’s Contracts. The Nats can absolutely afford to make a competitive offer and build out a team around him and the rest of their emerging core.

On that note, while any team would move pieces around to make room for Soto in its outfield mix, that likely wouldn’t even be necessary for Washington. The Nats currently have Wood, defensive standout Jacob Young and top prospect Dylan Crews in the outfield. Young is an elite defender but carries just a .255/.315/.336 batting line on the season. He could easily be shifted to a fourth outfield role, or he could play center regularly while the trio of Wood, Crews and Soto rotated through the two corner spots and designated hitter. Getting at-bats for all of those names wouldn’t be particularly challenging.

On top of all that, the Nats themselves still know Soto as well as or better than any team in the game. The majority of the team’s key figures were all in place when they originally signed and developed Soto. Mike Rizzo has been the Nats’ president of baseball operations and general manager since being hired back in 2009, when Soto was 11 years old. The Lerner family has owned the Nats since the former Expos moved from Montreal to D.C. in 2006. Davey Martinez managed every game of Soto’s big league career before he was traded to the Padres. There are of course others in the organization, ranging from coaches to scouts to executives, who are holdovers from Soto’s days in D.C.

The broader question is likely one of whether Soto would want to return to a Nationals club that doesn’t have the look and feel of a present-day contender. He’d need to buy into the team’s farm system and the future and upside of players like Wood, Crews, Abrams, Gore, top prospect Brady House and others. His familiarity with Rizzo and particularly Martinez (with whom he’d interact on a daily basis) would certainly be a prominent factor, but Soto has also surely built rapport with key officials in both San Diego and the Bronx as well. Unless the Lerner family absolutely blew every other bidder out of the water, Soto going back to Washington would likely need to be at least somewhat based on nostalgia and fond memories of his original organization.

Still just 25 years old (26 in October), Soto is poised to land the largest contract ever signed by a position player — likely the largest contract in MLB history in terms of net present value. Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700MM deal is the current benchmark, although given the colossal slate of deferrals on the deal, the contract’s net present value is nowhere close to that total sum; Ohtani’s deal comes with a $46MM luxury hit, and the MLBPA calculated the NPV to be $437.5MM.

Some might wonder whether Soto and agent Scott Boras would consider a similar deal, though Boras’ comments in the aftermath of that Ohtani deal suggest otherwise. Speaking with Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic, Boras suggested that the deflated NPV of Ohtani’s contract was generally underwhelming for a player of his caliber: “The market remains status quo. No average annual value at or above $44 million. Clear evidence of a strategic and managed effort.” Readers can form their own opinions on the merit of that stance, but it seems to be a clear indicator that Boras will be looking to set a more concrete new precedent in terms of present-day value when he takes his own unicorn free agent to the market this winter.

Soto is already a four-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger winner (he’ll win a fifth this season), a World Series champion and a Home Run Derby champion. He’s a lifetime .285/.421/.533 hitter in the majors, and he’s currently enjoying the best 162-game season of his career, on a rate basis. He’s slashed .289/.418/.580 with a career-high 39 home runs while walking in 18% of his plate appearances against just a 16.2% strikeout rate. He’s on track for a fifth straight season walking more often than he’s struck out.

By measure of Statcast, Soto ranks in the 94th percentile or better among all MLB players in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, bat speed, chase rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA and walk rate. He’s ultra-durable, averaging 155 games per season from 2021-23, and will match or exceed that pace again in 2024, barring a late injury. Defense has been a knock on him in the past, but Soto has delivered the best defensive grades of his career this season. Statcast credits him with 97th percentile arm strength. He has below-average but not plodding speed, which does limit his range and restrict him to the outfield corners.

The Nats and other clubs know all this quite well, of course. Soto is due for a record-setting contract. Everyone expects as much. The incumbent Yankees figure to be viewed as the favorites, but competition will be steep, and there are plenty of reasons to think Soto’s original club could emerge as a genuine threat in the bidding war to come.

James Paxton Planning To Retire

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Red Sox left-hander James Paxton plans to retire after this season, he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. The 11-year big league veteran announced the news on Bradford’s Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (X link).

“I’m hoping that we can squeak into the postseason and I get an opportunity to pitch again. But I think, after this season, I’m going to be retiring and moving on to the next chapter,” Paxton said. The 35-year-old called it a “tough” decision because he remains confident in his ability but indicated he feels it’s the right time to “settle in at home.” Paxton told Bradford he has already gotten to work on building a company focused on addressing athletes’ mental health.

While there’s a small chance he gets back on the mound this year, it’s likely his playing career is over. Paxton tore his right calf in mid-August and was placed on the 60-day injured list last month. He’s ineligible to return until the middle of October. The Sox would need to erase a four-game deficit in the Wild Card race and likely need to make a run into at least the ALCS for Paxton to be able to get on the mound.

Injuries were an unfortunately frequent occurrence. This season was only the fifth in which he reached 100 MLB innings. Paxton was a very productive pitcher when healthy, highlighted by a four-year peak with the Mariners and Yankees at the end of the 2010s.

The Blue Jays initially drafted Paxton, a British Columbia native who’d eventually earn the “Big Maple” nickname. Toronto selected him 37th overall in the 2009 draft. The sides couldn’t agree to contract terms, however, sending the 6’4″ southpaw back to the draft the following year. Seattle selected him in the fourth round, a move that would pay off a few seasons later.

Paxton was immediately one of the M’s top pitching prospects. He got to the big leagues as a September call-up in 2013, firing 24 innings of 1.50 ERA ball. Paxton battled shoulder and finger injuries, respectively, over the following two seasons. He was limited to 13 starts in each year but managed a sub-4.00 earned run average both times. Paxton topped 100 innings and reached 20 appearances for the first time in 2016, turning in a 3.79 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning.

The following season saw Paxton emerge as an upper mid-rotation starter, at least on a rate basis. He fired 136 frames with a career-best 2.98 ERA while striking out more than 28% of opponents. Paxton continued to miss bats in bunches the following year, when he fanned 32.2% of batters faced with a 3.76 ERA across 160 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 150+ innings, only Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole had a better strikeout rate that year.

That 2018 campaign saw Paxton log the highest workload of his career and included perhaps his two best performances. Paxton no-hit the Jays at the Rogers Centre in May 2018, becoming the second Canadian pitcher in MLB history to throw a no-hitter. That was one of two complete game victories he posted that month, though those arguably weren’t even his best outings. Paxton also struck out a personal-high 16 A’s hitters over seven scoreless innings in the start preceding his no-hitter. Overall, he struck out 51 hitters with a 1.67 ERA across 43 innings that month.

At the end of that season, the M’s traded Paxton’s final two seasons of arbitration eligibility to the Yankees for a three-player return. The headliner, Justus Sheffield, did not pan out. Erik Swanson, included as the secondary piece, developed into a productive reliever. Paxton had a strong first season in the Bronx, tossing 150 2/3 frames of 3.82 ERA ball while punching out nearly 30% of opposing hitters. He started a trio of postseason games for a Yankee team that lost to the Astros in the ALCS. Barring a surprise run from this year’s Sox, those were the only playoff appearances of his career. Paxton fanned 20 while allowing five runs in 13 innings (3.46 ERA).

That was Paxton’s final full season. He sustained a flexor strain during the shortened 2020 season, limiting him to five starts in his walk year. The Mariners brought him back during his first free agent trip on a buy-low $8.5MM deal. Paxton pitched once before his elbow blew out. He underwent Tommy John surgery and wouldn’t pitch again until 2023.

Paxton made 19 starts and logged 96 innings for the Red Sox last season, the second year of a $10MM free agent deal. He returned to the open market and signed with the Dodgers on a contract that eventually paid him $13MM after he hit certain start bonuses. L.A. squeezed him off the roster just before the trade deadline and flipped him back to Boston. Paxton made three starts for the Sox before suffering the calf injury. He’ll finish the year with a 4.40 ERA across 100 1/3 innings between the two clubs.

While the injuries kept Paxton a bit below 1000 innings, he finishes his career with a solid 3.77 earned run average. Paxton recorded his 1000th strikeout against former teammate Justin Turner on July 30. He made 177 appearances, all starts, and compiled a 73-41 record with a pair of complete games. Paxton’s one shutout was a memorable one — the aforementioned no-hitter in his home country. Baseball Reference credits him with roughly 14 wins above replacement, while he was worth 19 WAR at FanGraphs. B-Ref calculates his earnings at nearly $50MM. MLBTR congratulates Paxton on a fine career and sends our best wishes on his worthwhile endeavor to help athletes with their mental health.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Place Reynaldo Lopez On Injured List, Select Cavan Biggio

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The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve placed right-hander Reynaldo Lopez on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right shoulder. Lopez was pulled from last night’s start after a significant velocity drop, and manager Brian Snitker said after the game he was headed for an MRI. The results of that imaging have not yet been revealed, but there’s obviously enough concern to shut Lopez down for what amounts to the rest of the regular season. In Lopez’s place, Atlanta recalled righty Daysbel Hernandez from Triple-A Gwinnett.

In addition to the Lopez move, Atlanta shuffled its infield mix. The Braves selected the contract of recently acquired infielder Cavan Biggio from Gwinnett and optioned fellow infielder Luke Williams to Triple-A in his place. In order to open a spot for Biggio on the 40-man roster, right-hander Jimmy Herget has been designated for assignment.

The loss of Lopez is yet another blow to an injury-decimated Braves roster that’s currently without Spencer Strider (UCL surgery), Ronald Acuna Jr. (torn ACL), Austin Riley (broken hand), Ozzie Albies (broken wrist) and A.J. Minter (hip surgery) for the balance of the season. Whit Merrifield, whom the Braves signed in the wake of Albies’ injury, wound up sustaining a broken foot last week and is also on the shelf.

Atlanta has patched the lineup over with midseason signings/acquisitions of Jorge Soler, Gio Urshela, Ramon Laureano and now Biggio. They’ve managed to stay afloat and in a tightly contested race with the division-rival Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot, but this latest hit will further test the team’s depth and the production of that patchwork set of replacements. The rotation currently features Chris Sale, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and solid rookie Spencer Schwellenbach. When Lopez’s turn next arises, the Braves will likely turn to one of Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Allan Winans, Hurston Waldrep or Ian Anderson to step into his spot.

While nearly all of those in-house options have either already had past MLB success (Anderson, Elder in particular) or has been a top-tier prospect (Waldrep, Smith-Shawver), it’s not realistic to expect any of the bunch to produce at the same level as Lopez, even over a short period.

Lopez’s move from reliever to starter this season caught the entire industry by surprise, but even more remarkable than the switch itself has been how well it’s paid off. The right-hander made the All-Star team and deservingly so, as he’s pitched to a brilliant 2.03 ERA on the season, striking out 26.3% of his opponents against an 8.1% walk rate. Lopez has only allowed more than two earned runs in three of his 24 starts this season, and he’s yet to surrender more than four runs in any appearance this season.

As for Biggio, Atlanta will be his third team this season. He’s suited up for his longtime Blue Jays club and the Dodgers in addition to a minor league run with the Giants organization. In 74 games and 219 plate appearances, he’s logged a bleak .197/.316/.306 batting line with a huge 32% strikeout rate. The second-generation big leaguer still draws plenty of walks (11%), but even that’s a departure from the massive 16% clip he turned in at his best earlier in his career. Biggio’s contact skills and power output have eroded over the years, and this season’s 81.9 mph average exit velocity and 16.2% hard-hit rate are both the worst among all MLB hitters with at least 200 plate appearances.

The Braves will be hoping for at least some semblance of a rebound. It’s not realistic to expect Biggio to turn the clock back to 2019, when he hit 16 homers and swiped 14 bases in just 100 games as a rookie, but he should at least be able to get on base at a decent clip near the bottom of the reworked lineup.

In order to get Biggio onto the roster, the Braves will part ways with the veteran Herget, who’d been pitching with Gwinnett recently. The 31-year-old posted a 4.38 ERA in 12 1/3 innings with Atlanta earlier this season and has a 3.30 ERA in 30 minor league innings between the Braves and Angels organizations this year. Herget has been an up-and-down member of the bullpen with the Braves, Angels and Rangers in recent years but has generally been successful working in largely low-leverage situations. He has a career 3.54 ERA in 155 big league innings and has fanned 22.2% of opponents against a 7.4% walk rate.

Herget will be out of options next season and would’ve been arbitration-eligible this winter. If another club picks him up, he can be controlled for three more seasons, but he won’t be optionable next year and would have to clear waivers before any team could assign him to the minor leagues.

Yankees Promote Jasson Domínguez

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The Yankees have promoted outfielder Jasson Domínguez ahead of tonight’s game against the Royals at Yankee Stadium, the team announced. To make room on the active roster, they placed infielder DJ LeMahieu on the 10-day IL with right hip inflammation. In addition, the Yankees reinstated utility man Jon Berti from the 60-day IL. They had already cleared a spot for him on the 28-man roster by optioning outfielder Duke Ellis on Sunday. To make room for Berti on the 40-man roster, the team designated left-hander Anthony Misiewicz for assignment.

Domínguez made his hotly-anticipated MLB debut last September, putting up a .980 OPS and 160 wRC+ in eight games as the Yankees’ center fielder before he tore his UCL and required season-ending Tommy John surgery. The team reinstated him from the injured list this past June but optioned him to Triple-A rather than put him back on the active roster. It made enough sense at the time, considering New York’s crowded outfield picture; in addition to mainstays Aaron Judge in center and Juan Soto in right, Alex Verdugo was enjoying a solid season as the starting left fielder (108 wRC+, 1.1 FanGraphs WAR at the time). Moreover, Giancarlo Stanton was playing every day at DH. Thus, the Yankees decided to give Domínguez regular reps with the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders.

Yet, Verdugo has struggled tremendously over the past three months, batting .210 with a .568 OPS and 62 wRC+. Meanwhile, Domínguez has thrived over the past month at Triple-A, batting .318 with an .893 OPS and 132 wRC+ across his last 27 games. He has also 11 stolen bases in 12 attempts during that time. The 21-year-old was briefly called up to be the 27th man in a doubleheader last month, but he returned to the minors the next day. With the Yankees holding onto the slimmest lead (0.5 games) of any division leader in MLB right now, their hesitance to call up the star prospect seemed strange, to say the least. Now, however, that point of discussion is finally moot.

Domínguez would not have been called up if he weren’t going to get frequent playing time, a point that GM Brian Cashman emphasized last week (per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Indeed, he will start tonight in center field and bat sixth in the Yankees’ lineup. Judge will DH, while Stanton takes the day off against Royals right-hander Brady Singer. The lefty batting Verdugo remains in the lineup, playing left field. It’s safe to presume that Domínguez will eventually take some playing time away from the floundering Verdugo, but he is also a valuable asset as a replacement for Judge in center field. The MVP candidate has held his own at the position, but he is better suited for a corner outfield spot. Furthermore, Judge could surely benefit from some days as the DH when he can stay off his feet for most of the game.

Berti, whom the Yankees acquired from the Marlins this past offseason, has spent almost the entire year on the injured list, first with a groin strain and more recently with a calf strain. He has played just 17 games for New York this year, 16 of them at third base. However, the 34-year-old can also play second base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions in a pinch. Berti is not in the starting lineup tonight, but he will provide the team with versatility off the bench.

LeMahieu has not played since last Tuesday. Manager Aaron Boone told reporters that the veteran’s hip has been an issue for several weeks now, and it’s unclear if he will be able to return before the end of the regular season (per Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News). That’s not necessarily much of a loss for the Yankees, considering the former batting champ is hitting .204 with a .527 OPS and 51 wRC+ in 67 games during his age-35 season.

Misiewicz, 29, first joined the Yankees as a waiver claim in July 2023. He re-signed with the organization on a minor league deal this past offseason, and the big league club selected his contract in June. The southpaw made one scoreless appearance for the Yankees before he was returned to Triple-A, where he has pitched to a 3.33 ERA in 54.0 innings this year.

The Yankees claimed Ellis, 26, off of waivers from the Mariners at the end of August. They promoted him to the big leagues when rosters expanded on September 1, and he appeared in three games, collecting one hit and one stolen base. He will return to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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