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Rockies Non-Tender Cal Quantrill, Brendan Rodgers

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The Rockies announced they’ve non-tendered right-hander Cal Quantrill and second baseman Brendan Rodgers. Both players are now free agents and the club’s 40-man roster count drops to 38.

Quantrill, 30 in February, once seemed like a rotation building block for the Guardians but this is now two years in a row in which he’s lost his roster spot after a tough season. From 2020 to 2022, he tossed 368 innings for the Guards with a 3.08 earned run average. His 18.4% strikeout rate wasn’t amazing but he limited walks to a 6.7% clip and kept the ball on the ground 42.7% of the time.

But in 2023, shoulder inflammation limited him to 19 starts with a 5.24 ERA. His strikeout rate, which was already subpar, slid to 13.1%. The Guards designated him for assignment and flipped him to Colorado for minor league catcher Kody Huff.

The Rockies installed Quantrill into their beleaguered rotation, with Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela both recovering from Tommy John surgery. They avoided arbitration with Quantrill by agreeing to a $6.55MM salary. He went on to serve as a steady presence in the rotation but with fairly unexciting results. Over 29 starts, he logged 148 1/3 innings with a 4.98 ERA. His 44.4% ground ball rate was around league average but his 16.8% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate were both well below par.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Quantrill for a raise to $9MM next year, his final season of club control, but it seems the Rockies were uninterested in bringing him back at that price point. Marquez and Senzatela should be healthy for 2025, joining a rotation that figures to also include Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner and Austin Gomber, while prospect Chase Dollander is waiting in the wings.

Quantrill will now look for a change of scenery. Though the recent results haven’t been amazing, the Coors Field effect will naturally factor into how he’s viewed, with some clubs hoping to engineer a bounceback by moving Quantrill away from the mountains.

As for Rodgers, he was once a third overall pick and top 100 prospect but he has failed to live up to that hype. He has taken over 1800 plate appearances to this point in his career and has a batting line of .266/.316/.409. That translates to a wRC+ of 86, indicating he’s been 14% below league average overall.

The reviews of his glovework have been mixed. Outs Above Average has given him a -5 mark for his career. He was above average in 2022 and 2023 but then dipped back down again this year. He does have 12 Defensive Run Saved in his career but in eyebrow-tilting fashion. He’s been below average by that metric in most of his seasons but had a massive +22 grade in 2022, a mark that looks like a clear outlier.

Swartz projected Rodgers for a $5.5MM salary next year. Like Quantrill, he could only be retained for one more season before he was slated for free agency. Rather than pay Rodgers in that range for 2025, they will move on, sending him to free agency while they look for alternatives at second base.

Colorado could give some runway to prospect Adael Amador, but he will be only 22 next year and has just 10 major league games under his belt so far. Perhaps they can find a placeholder to take that spot in the meantime, either someone better than Rodgers or simply cheaper. Players like Gleyber Torres, Adam Frazier, Amed Rosario and others are available in free agency.

Angels Non-Tender Patrick Sandoval, Three Others

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The Angels announced that they declined to tender a contract to left-hander Patrick Sandoval, as well as infielder Eric Wagaman and outfielders Jordyn Adams and Bryce Teodosio.

Sandoval, 28, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM. However, he’s not a lock to pitch in 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late June. In the event that he doesn’t pitch at all, he’d likely have been ticketed for a repeat of that $5.9MM salary in 2026. By tendering him a contract with that type of expected payday, the Halos would’ve effectively been running the risk of committing $11.8MM over two seasons just to get Sandoval’s 2026 season, when he’d be on an innings limit after that UCL reconstruction. He’d been slated to reach free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.

While the health outlook is uncertain, Sandoval is clearly a quality arm when healthy. He ought to be able to find a modest two-year deal that’ll pay him to rehab in year one and hopefully pitch in year two of the contract. Just days before his injury, MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at the similarities between Sandoval and oft-cited trade candidate Jesus Luzardo, noting that the two are quite comparable from a statistical standpoint.

Dating back to 2021, Sandoval sports a 3.80 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in 460 innings of work. His command has never been great, but that walk rate is inflated by an anomalous 11.3% mark in 2023. Sandoval’s walk rate in the other three seasons has sat at 9.3% — not good, but not egregiously poor. The lefty sits 93-94 mph with his heater, misses bats at a roughly average level and piles up grounders at a strong 47.5% clip. He’s not a star, but Sandoval is a fine third or fourth starter for a competitive club.

Teodosio made his major league debut this year and played in five games. Adams and Wagaman were designated for assignment earlier this week. Any of that trio could potentially return on minor league deals. Sandoval is a near lock for a big league contract, potentially a backloaded two-year deal to cover the second season of his rehab.

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan

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The Nationals announced Friday that they’ve non-tendered closer Kyle Finnegan and fellow right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey. Both pitchers are now free agents. It’s a surprise move for the Nats, who watched Finnegan make his first All-Star team in 2024 while pacing the team with 38 saves. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in arbitration.

Unexpected as the move was, there’s a case to be made that Finnegan’s gaudy save totals have disproportionately inflated his value. The 33-year-old righty hasn’t been a bad reliever on a rate basis by any means, but he’s also not the shutdown weapon many might expect based on that All-Star nod and his 66 saves over the past two seasons. Finnegan pitched to a solid but unspectacular 3.68 earned run average in 63 2/3 innings this season. Despite a blazing 97.4 mph average on his fastball, Finnegan’s 22.1% strikeout rate was lower than the league average for relievers. His 8.9% walk rate was right at the league average. He’s also been fairly susceptible to home runs, serving up an average of 1.35 big flies per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons.

Hard as Finnegan throws, neither his four-seamer nor his splitter miss bats at a high level. This year’s 10.8% swinging-strike rate was below average. He’s also quite prone to hard contact, even beyond the home runs. He yielded an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in 2024 and 92.2 mph in 2023. Over the past two seasons, a whopping 47.8% of the batted balls against him left the bat at 95 mph or greater.

Metrics like FIP (4.42), xFIP (3.91) and SIERA (3.90) simply haven’t bought into Finnegan as a premium reliever over the past two seasons, even as he’s been the Nationals’ go-to option in leverage situations. Washington has traded away most of its short-term veterans at this point but held onto Finnegan. Some have speculated that perhaps teams were unwilling to meet GM Mike Rizzo’s asking price in a trade, but today’s non-tender surely came on the heels of an effort to trade Finnegan. It’s likely that many teams around the league simply don’t feel Finnegan, at 33 years of age and with a worsening K-BB rates in three straight seasons, is worth his likely $8-9MM price tag in arbitration.

Some of that trepidation is surely borne from the fact that Finnegan pitched quite poorly in the season’s final two months. The right-hander carried a 2.32 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate through late July. Over his final 21 innings, however, he was shelled for a 6.43 ERA with just a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. Finnegan didn’t experience a drop in velocity, but he was nowhere near as effective as he’d been for the first two-thirds of the season.

None of this is to say Finnegan won’t find interest now that he’s unexpectedly become a free agent. He now only costs money and a roster spot, and other clubs that are intrigued by the raw velocity on that four-seamer might well have some ideas about how to coax more swings and misses out of what’s clearly a power arm. A club willing to look past the poor finish to his 2024 season could certainly dream on the scenario of getting him back to the form he displayed leading into this year’s All-Star Game.

Finnegan probably won’t command an annual salary in the $8-9MM range like he might’ve earned in free agency, but he’s the rare non-tendered player who might also have a chance at commanding a multi-year deal at a lower rate of pay. More likely, he’ll ink a one-year deal and look to rebound before hitting the market on the heels of a stronger showing next winter. He’ll be heading into his age-34 campaign at that point — a downside of not making his MLB debut until his age-28 season.

Rainey, 31, is a far more straightforward non-tender case. The former flamethrowing reliever was a key piece of Washington’s bullpen in 2019-20, but injuries have taken their toll — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2022. Rainey pitched just one inning in ’23, and while he returned to toss 51 frames this past season, his 94 mph average fastball was nowhere near its 97.7 mph peak. He was tagged for a 4.76 ERA on the season while displaying strikeout (19%), walk (12.6%) and home run (1.41 per nine) rates that were significantly worse than league average. Swartz projected him for a $1.9MM salary in arbitration, but Rainey might need to settle for a minor league deal to show he can regain some of his pre-injury form.

Blue Jays Non-Tender Jordan Romano

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The Blue Jays non-tendered closer Jordan Romano, tweets Jeff Passan of ESPN. The two-time All-Star had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.75MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He goes directly into free agency without landing on waivers.

That lofty projection made Romano one of the more obvious high-profile candidates to be let go. His 2024 season was wrecked by injury. The 31-year-old righty pitched in 15 games, allowing 10 runs over 13 2/3 innings. In early July, he underwent arthroscopic surgery to address an impingement in his throwing elbow. That ultimately proved to be a season ender. While the Jays initially expressed hope that Romano could return in September, they fell out of the playoff race and had little reason to rush him back to action.

The Jays weren’t comfortable risking a near-$8MM salary on a rebound. Romano nevertheless becomes one of the most intriguing buy-low targets for teams looking for bullpen help. He was an elite back-end weapon between 2021-23. Romano has recorded 103 saves over the past four seasons, including consecutive 36-save performances in 2022 and ’23.

He topped 55 innings in each of the three seasons preceding this year and turned in a sub-3.00 ERA showing in each year. From 2021-23, Romano posted a 2.37 earned run average through 186 innings. He struck out more than 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 9.2% walk rate.

Toronto already needed to address the bullpen, which ranked 29th in the majors with a 4.82 ERA. Only the Rockies had a more troublesome relief group. Moving on from Romano, while understandable, simply adds to that urgency. The Jays also non-tendered Dillon Tate, opening a second bullpen spot. Erik Swanson and Chad Green project as the top in-house options for leverage work. GM Ross Atkins and his staff will certainly look for at least one, and quite likely multiple, back-end arms during the coming weeks.

Phillies To Non-Tender Austin Hays

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The Phillies have informed outfielder Austin Hays that they will not tender him a contract before tonight’s deadline, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. He’ll immediately become a free agent without having to first clear waivers. He’d been projected for a $6.4MM salary by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Hays, 29, spent his entire career with the Orioles before being traded to the Phils in exchange for Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache a few days before the 2024 trade deadline. The Phillies hoped that Hays, who’d battled injuries in the season’s first half, could rebound with better health and solidify their outfield mix down the stretch. That’s not how things played out, however. Hays suffered a strained hamstring a couple weeks after the trade and only briefly returned before hitting the shelf with a kidney infection that took a significant toll on his body. He only took 80 plate appearances with Philadelphia and batted just .256/.275/.397 in that small sample.

All told, Hays endured three IL stints in 2024, missing time with that kidney infection, hamstring strain and a calf strain that shelved him for three weeks from late April to mid-May. His combined .255/.303/.396 slash between the two clubs was arguably the worst production of his big league career.

While injuries clearly hampered Hays’ 2024 campaign, he’s still only a season removed from an All-Star season. Hays turned in a nice .275/.325/.444 slash with 16 home runs and quality glovework in left field as recently as 2023. He’s long been the type of player who thrives in platoon settings and merely holds his own against same-handed opponents, but paired with his defensive acumen that’s enough for him to have been a solid regular in Baltimore. Hays is a lifetime .277/.331/.469 hitter against lefties (120 wRC+) and a .254/.304/.415 hitter against fellow righties (99 wRC+).

Teams seeking a low-cost, right-handed bat to plug into their outfield mix figure to have interest in Hays. Many non-tendered players ultimately sign minor league deals, but Hays was a notable enough contributor with the O’s from 2021-23 that he ought to find a one-year deal in free agency, presumably a price south of his projected arbitration salary.

The Phillies, meanwhile, were already known to be in the market for outfield help. Hays was a likely non-tender candidate for some time now, though they opted not to make the move before today — presumably gauging the market for potential trade partners. Philadelphia’s outfield includes Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos, but the Phils are interested in adding a bat to the outfield and either going with a Marsh/Rojas platoon in the other spot or giving Marsh a larger role if he can handle lefties better than in the past. The Phillies are planning to meet with Juan Soto and will surely be connected to a variety of other targets both on the open market and trade market.

2024 Non-Tender Candidates

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The non-tender deadline is tomorrow evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Teams have already made a few cuts among that group — either at the beginning of the offseason when players returned from the injured list or prior to Tuesday’s deadline to keep prospects out of the Rule 5 draft. The Cubs, for instance, have already taken Adbert Alzolay and Patrick Wisdom off the 40-man roster and could officially non-tender them tomorrow.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (Scott Kingery and Seth Brown have already signed deals of that ilk.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.

As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.

At least a few of these players will likely be traded, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. MLBTR covered a few candidates for that kind of deal in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

Starting Pitchers

Right-Handed Relievers

Left-Handed Relievers

* Have avoided arbitration since the list was published

Astros Have Made Offer To Alex Bregman

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The Astros have called re-signing Alex Bregman their top offseason priority. Whether that’ll happen remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Houston has made an offer to their longtime third baseman. It’s unclear whether any other teams have made a formal proposal, but Heyman reports that Bregman’s camp has also fielded interest from the Tigers and Red Sox.

Terms of the Astros’ proposal aren’t known. If Houston is going to retain Bregman, it’d probably require the largest investment in franchise history. Their previous organizational high is the five-year, $151MM Jose Altuve extension from 2018. Bregman has a decent shot at six or seven years at more than $25MM annually. He’ll presumably view Matt Chapman’s recent six-year, $151MM extension as the floor and could look to beat $200MM.

Houston general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that the Astros may need to creatively manage the books, potentially by trading a veteran or two who is playing on a notable salary. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this week that the team has the flexibility to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight year.

That’d essentially be a prerequisite to re-signing Bregman. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number in the $234MM range. That’s not far below the $241MM base threshold. Even if the Astros trade veteran setup man Ryan Pressly and offload his $14MM salary, a Bregman contract will send them past the CBT mark. They’re also looking for help at first base and could try for a more affordable bullpen pickup if they deal Pressly.

This is the first direct tie between Bregman and the Tigers. That has been a longstanding speculative match with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch leading the charge in Motown. Detroit’s third base mix is unsettled. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and prospect Jace Jung all took a decent number of at-bats at the position. Vierling and McKinstry are multi-positional players. Third base is the clearest fit for the 24-year-old Jung, who has 34 games of major league experience. If the Tigers were to land Bregman, Jung could push Spencer Torkelson for playing time at first base. He’d also be a potential trade chip as Detroit looks to solidify the rotation behind Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson.

Finances are the much bigger obstacle. While Detroit has run payrolls north of $200MM in the past, those came when the late Mike Ilitch was running the franchise. The Tigers have dramatically reduced spending since Christopher Ilitich’s ownership tenure began in 2017. Much of that came amidst a rebuild that was firmly closed by Detroit’s late-season run to the AL Division Series, so they could loosen the purse strings this winter. The Tigers only have around $80MM on next year’s payroll, according to RosterResource, nearly $20MM below this past season’s Opening Day mark. They should be active on the free agent market, but a Bregman deal would almost certainly top the $140MM Javier Báez contract as Detroit’s biggest under Christopher Ilitch ownership.

The Red Sox appear more likely than either the Astros or Tigers to make a huge free agent splash. Boston brass continues to forecast an aggressive winter. A strike for a top starting pitcher is a clearer fit than a run at Bregman. Heyman suggests the Sox could move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base to accommodate Bregman. That’d push Triston Casas to designated hitter and presumably force Masataka Yoshida off the roster.

The easier solution might be to leave Devers at third base for another season and deploy Bregman at the keystone. The Sox had one of the least productive second base groups in MLB this year. Bregman has barely played second base because of Altuve’s presence in Houston, but agent Scott Boras said at the GM Meetings that the star infielder was willing to slide to the right side of the infield if necessary.

Bregman declined a qualifying offer, so the Tigers and Sox would forfeit a pick if they were to sign him. Detroit would lose its third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Boston would relinquish its second-highest pick and $500K from its international bonus allotment. The Sox’s penalty is higher because they do not receive revenue sharing, while the Tigers do. Houston wouldn’t give up anything to re-sign their own free agent, though they’d pass up the chance to collect a compensation pick after the fourth round if Bregman walks.

Shohei Ohtani Wins NL MVP

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Shohei Ohtani has his third MVP. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that Ohtani won the National League MVP in his first season as a Dodger. Francisco Lindor landed in second place, while Ketel Marte rounds out the top three. Ohtani received all 30 first-place votes.

Ohtani becomes the first full-time designated hitter to win MVP, as he was unable to pitch for the entire season after undergoing elbow surgery late last year. He joins Frank Robinson as the only players to win an MVP in both leagues and he’s only the 12th player in big league history to win the award three times in his career. Barry Bonds is the only player with more than three MVPs — he won the award seven times — so Ohtani has a chance to move into second place on the leaderboard as he goes into his age-30 season.

While Ohtani’s first two MVPs reflected his two-way ability, this year’s honors are solely about his offensive dominance. He had arguably his best hitting season ever. Ohtani hit a career-high 54 homers and drove in 130 runs. He posted a .310/.390/.646 slash line, leading the National League in both on-base percentage and slugging. Ohtani also paced the Senior Circuit in homers and RBI while ranking second among qualified hitters in batting average. Luis Arraez hit .314 to narrowly prevent Ohtani from winning the Triple Crown.

Monstrous as his power numbers were, Ohtani was also perhaps the league’s best baserunner. He stole 59 bases, trailing only Elly De La Cruz in that category. While De La Cruz was caught stealing 16 times in addition to his 67 successful attempts, Ohtani was cut down on just four occasions. No player in history had ever posted a 50-homer, 50-steal season. Ohtani broke both marks easily, getting there with one of the best single-game performances in history. He went 6-6 with three homers, two steals and 10 RBI in a 20-4 drubbing of the Marlins to establish the 50-50 club.

Ohtani helped the Dodgers to yet another NL West title — their 11th division crown in 12 years. Los Angeles went 98-64 to secure the top seed in the National League. Playoff performance is irrelevant to awards voting, which occurs at the end of the regular season. Ohtani was relatively quiet in his first October action, hitting .230/.373/.393 in 16 games. That didn’t hold L.A. back from knocking out the Padres, Mets and Yankees en route to their second World Series in five years.

For a while, it seemed as if Lindor would pose a real threat to Ohtani winning the award. He hit 33 homers and stole 29 bases with a .273/.344/.500 showing over 689 trips to the plate. As a plus defensive shortstop, Lindor obviously provided significant defensive value. Ohtani’s historic offensive achievements proved decisive in the end, though this is Lindor’s first top three MVP finish. Marte raked at a .292/.372/.560 clip with 36 homers to earn the highest MVP placement of his career.

Lindor received 23 of 30 second-place votes. Marte finished second on five ballots. Braves DH Marcell Ozuna and Cy Young winner Chris Sale each got one second-place nod themselves. Ozuna and Milwaukee catcher William Contreras rounded out the top five in overall balloting. Giants third baseman Matt Chapman received one third place vote, though he placed 11th in balloting overall. Bryce Harper, De La Cruz, Jackson Merrill, Willy Adames, Zack Wheeler, Mookie Betts, Jurickson Profar, Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, Arraez, Paul Skenes, Teoscar Hernández, Ezequiel Tovar, Jackson Chourio and Dylan Cease all received votes.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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Aaron Judge is the MVP once again. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced this evening that the Yankee captain was the unanimous choice for the American League’s top player this year. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals was the unanimous runner-up, getting all of the second-place votes. Judge’s teammate Juan Soto finished third in the voting.

Judge was the AL MVP in 2022, his 62-homer campaign. While he came up just shy of that in 2024 with “only” 58 home runs, he roughly kept pace with himself in most categories. His 24.3% strikeout rate was actually a personal best, slightly ahead of the 25.1% clip from his previous MVP campaign. His 18.9% walk rate was a few ticks better than the 15.9% clip from two years ago. His 10 steals were a bit of a drop from his 16 from two years back, but his 144 runs batted in were a gain of 13.

Overall, his offensive contributions led to a ridiculous .322/.458/.701 slash line this year. That translated to a 218 wRC+, indicating he was 118% better than league average this year. That was an improvement over his 206 wRC+ in 2022.

On top of his work at the plate, he also contributed in the field. While he’s primarily been a right fielder in his career, he spent a career-high 903 innings in center in 2024. While he didn’t receive strong marks for his work there, simply being able to play up the middle was valuable to the Yanks, given the demands of the position. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 11.2 wins above replacement on the year, a slight increase over his 11.1 fWAR in 2022.

That all-time performance made it an easy choice for voters. That’s unfortunate for Witt, who played at a level that’d be enough to win MVP in a lot of years. The Royals’ star shortstop led the majors with a .332 average and 211 hits. He slashed .332/.389/.588 with 32 homers and 31 steals while playing excellent defense. FanGraphs credited Witt with more than 10 WAR in his own right. Since Witt finished in the top three in MVP voting within his first three MLB seasons, the Royals receive an extra pick after the first round in next year’s draft.

Soto had arguably the best full season of his career, hitting 41 homers with a .288/.419/.569 slash in what may be his only year as a Yankee. This is his third top five MVP finish. Soto received 21 third-place votes. Gunnar Henderson and José Ramírez, who finished fourth and fifth respectively, were the only others to land in third on some ballots. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tarik Skubal, Jarren Duran, Yordan Alvarez, Brent Rooker, Emmanuel Clase, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Anthony Santander, Jose Altuve, Seth Lugo, Corey Seager, Framber Valdez and Detroit reliever Tyler Holton also appeared on at least one ballot.

Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Kennedy: Red Sox Willing To Pay Competitive Balance Tax In 2025

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Red Sox brass have been signaling their intent to have an aggressive offseason, with president and CEO Sam Kennedy doubling down this week, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. As they look to navigate the next few months, they apparently don’t view the competitive balance tax as a red line. “Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.”

Those comments are in line with some that Kennedy made last month, when he also referenced the 90-95 win window as well as targeting a division title. It seems the club is planning to reverse course after several years of playing things a bit more modestly.

Looking at payroll data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020, a stretch in which they won four titles. But they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the results have dropped off, with the Sox finishing last in the American League east in three of the past five years.

Red Sox fans might roll their eyes after chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments last year didn’t lead to much, but that arguably makes it more notable that the Sox have been taking every opportunity to raise expectations again, as letting the fans down two years in a row would obviously be poor public relations strategy.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke of looking to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation earlier this month. As mentioned, this is the second time that Kennedy has been forthright in stating that the club is planning to take a shot at the division, this time indicating that they might even get into tax payor status as they do so. They have already been connected to big-name free agents like Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Willy Adames, Max Fried and others.

“Is that possible? If that’s what it takes, yeah, absolutely,” Kennedy said of adding a mega deal to the club’s ledger. “We are investing more than we did last year. We intend to invest going forward. There is an extreme urgency internally to be competing for the American League East Championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question. The goal is to win 90 plus games to not be worrying about a wild card spot.”

Assuming the club is indeed willing to cross the tax line, that gives them a lot of spending power this winter. RosterResource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $171MM for 2025. The lowest threshold of the tax will $241MM next year, meaning the Sox could give out contracts with about $70MM in terms of average annual value before getting to the line.

That might not even be the cap of their spending ability if they are willing to go beyond the base threshold. The Sox haven’t paid the tax since 2022, so they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. That means they would be looking at a base tax rate of just 20%, with higher rates for going beyond the three further thresholds, each one being $20MM higher than the one before.

Soto is expected to land a historic deal, with many predictions suggesting he could get something in the window of $45-50MM annually. Theoretically, it’s possible for the Sox to sign Soto and still have money for other moves, if they are willing to go over the line. Or even without signing Soto, they could sign multiple players from the next tier of free agency.

Of course, saying that you’re willing to pay the tax and then actually doing it are two different things. It’s still entirely possible that the Sox are aggressive in ways that push the payroll towars the tax line without going over. That could mean less activity in free agency while being more active on the trade market, or perhaps not doing much in either sphere.

However it plays out, that gives the club a lot of possible options in terms of upgrading a team that went 81-81 in 2024. They have some strong core players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and others. They have a lauded group of prospects which includes the “Big Four” of Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony, who are all on the cusp of the majors. Those players could perhaps be used as part of a mega deal for someone like Garrett Crochet, or they could be kept as the Sox address their roster with free agents instead. “Everything and anything’s on the table for us,” Kennedy said. “Free agency, trades, promotions from the minor leagues.”

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