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Yankees Recently Met With Max Fried, Corbin Burnes

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The Yankees’ efforts to re-sign Juan Soto have dominated headlines in the Bronx this offseason, but they’re also laying the groundwork for other free agent possibilities. The Yankees held a 90-minute meeting with longtime Braves lefty Max Fried this week, as first reported by the YES Network’s Michael Kay, who adds that the talk went well and the two sides are expected to meet again. Mike Puma and Joel Sherman of the New York Post also report that the two sides met, with the Yankees’ contingent consisting of GM Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone, pitching coach Matt Blake and as many as six other team officials. Puma and Sherman further add that the Yankees met with Corbin Burnes late last month.

Soto, of course, remains the Yankees’ top focus. It seems unlikely that they’d sign him to what increasingly appears to be a $600MM+ contract and then put down more than $150MM on one of Fried or Burnes — though the Yanks certainly have the resources to do so. Still, it’s only natural for any Soto suitor to be doing homework on potential contingency plans in the event that he signs elsewhere. Loading up on high-end starting pitching and addressing the lineup in other ways would be one such possibility. (Notably, the Yankees have also recently been linked to infielder Willy Adames, who’s willing to play third base or second base with a new club.)

The Yankees already have one of the most expensive staffs in the sport. Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman are owed a combined $81MM next year. Nestor Cortes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM. Righty Clarke Schmidt is projected at $3.5MM. Newly minted Rookie of the Year Luis Gil is still in his pre-arbitration years. There’s been speculation about the Yankees moving either Stroman or Cortes this winter, both of which seem plausible. Adding someone the caliber of Fried of Burnes would make a trade elsewhere in the rotation a virtual inevitability.

Either Burnes or Fried would join Cole right atop what could be a powerhouse Yankees rotation. Both pitchers rejected qualifying offers from their former clubs, meaning both would cost the Yankees their second- and fifth-highest draft selections, in addition to $1MM of space from their 2025 bonus pool in international free agency. For a pitcher of either caliber, that’s a small price to pay.

Fried, 31 in January, has rattled off 659 innings of 2.81 ERA ball dating back to the 2020 season. He’s third among all qualified starting pitchers in ERA in that time, trailing only Brandon Woodruff (2.76) and Clayton Kershaw (2.79). Fried has thrown nearly 200 more innings than both those pitchers. His 2024 season wasn’t his best, but only relative to his lofty standards. He made 29 starts, totaling 174 1/3 innings, and notched a tidy 3.25 ERA.

Fried doesn’t miss bats like the prototypical ace but has a slightly better-than-average 23.6% strikeout rate over the past five seasons. He sports a strong 6.3% walk rate in that time and is among the game’s very best when it comes to minimizing hard contact and avoiding opponents’ barrels. He also racks up grounders at a plus rate (54.2% since 2020) — highlighted by a career-best 58.8% mark in 2024. Fried has generally been durable, although he was limited to 14 starts in 2023 due to a forearm strain that did not end up requiring surgery. He missed three starts in 2024 due to a nerve issue in that same forearm, but that’s ostensibly a different issue than the one that sidelined him in ’23.

Burnes is nearly a full year younger, having turned 30 about five weeks ago. He’s solidified himself as a true workhorse, ranking third in the majors in innings pitched over the past five seasons and sitting narrowly behind Fried with a fourth-ranked 2.88 ERA in that same span. Burnes was traded from the Brewers to the Orioles last offseason and proved himself against many of the very same AL East lineups he’d be facing as a Yankee. He made 32 starts and pitched 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the O’s, adding eight innings of one-run excellence in Baltimore’s brief postseason foray.

Dominant as Burnes has been at times in his career, his recent work bears some resemblance to that of Fried. That’s not a bad thing, of course, but his once sky-high strikeout rate now sits at a roughly league-average rate (23.1% in 2024). Like Fried, he’s countered the diminished strikeout tendencies with sharp command and a knack for dodging hard contact. Burnes doesn’t generate grounders at the same level, but his 46.9% career mark and 2024’s 48.8% rate are both still comfortably above average.

The general thinking has been that Burnes will sign the largest contract of any pitcher this offseason. He’s two years younger than Blake Snell — who signed for five years and $182MM with the Dodgers (albeit with some deferrals) — and a year younger than Fried. His blend of durability and effectiveness is unmatched among this year’s crop of free agents. Fried, however, should command a deal well north of $100MM himself — quite possibly approaching or even exceeding the $162MM the Yankees promised to Rodon two winters ago.

The Yankees currently project for a payroll around $230MM, per RosterResource. They’re currently below the luxury tax threshold, but only nominally so. Even minor additions in free agency or on the trade market will push them into luxury territory. They’ve been a tax payor in each of the past three seasons, however, and their pursuits of various high-end free agents makes it clear they’re comfortable not only paying the tax for a fourth straight season but perhaps pushing into the highest tier of penalty again — at least for the 2025 season.

Managing partner Hal Steinbrenner has said that trotting out a payroll of that magnitude every season isn’t sustainable in the long run. However, that’s probably the reality for the immediate future, so long as the Yanks are paying Aaron Judge, Cole and Rodon a combined $103MM annually through 2028 (to say nothing of weighty commitments to Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Stroman and any forthcoming free agent/trade additions).

Mets Sign Frankie Montas

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The Mets announced they have signed right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year deal that contains an opt-out clause for Montas following the 2025 season. The Boras Corporation client will reportedly earn $17MM in both the 2025 and 2026 seasons for a $34MM guarantee.

Montas returns to the Big Apple after an injury-plagued stint with the Yankees during the 2022-23 seasons.  The Yankees acquired Montas from the A’s at the 2022 trade deadline when Montas was still trying to work through some shoulder discomfort, and his ill-fated attempt to pitch through the pain led to a 6.35 ERA over 39 2/3 innings during the remainder of the 2022 campaign.  Montas then required labrum surgery the following February that cost him almost all of the 2023 season, as he returned to pitch 1 1/3 innings in one game at the very end of September.

The Reds bet that Montas would be able to bounce back when healthy, and last January signed the righty to a one-year deal that ended up being worth $16MM — $14MM in guaranteed salary, and then a $2MM buyout once Montas declined his end of a mutual option for the 2025 season.  Perhaps showing the after-effects of his long layoff, Montas had a 4.84 ERA over 150 2/3 combined innings with Cincinnati and Milwaukee last season, as the Reds sent Montas to the Brewers last July in another deadline trade.

Apart from a minimal 15-day IL stint due to a forearm contusion, Montas was pretty healthy in his comeback year, and the 150 2/3 innings represents the second-highest workload of his nine Major League seasons.  As the 4.84 ERA might imply, however, Montas (who turns 32 in March) ran into some struggles.  His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly below the league average, and he surrendered a lot of walks and a lot of hard contact.

Montas’ 14.8% home run rate was the highest of his career, and he actually allowed more homers after leaving the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark for the more neutral American Family Field.  His fastball velocity dropped from 96.1mph to 95.6mph, which isn’t bad for a pitcher returning from a yearlong absence, but the larger issue was Montas’ sinker was the only effective pitch in his arsenal.  It is worth noting that Montas’ velocity and strikeout rate did increase after the trade to the Brewers, so another change of scenery might now more fully get him back to his pre-surgery form.

MLBTR ranked Montas 27th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and his $34MM guarantee significantly tops our prediction of a two-year, $22MM contract.  The higher price could reflect the ever-rising price of pitching, and the Mets and other teams might have put a greater premium on Montas’ ability to eat innings.

The Mets in particular had a glaring need for rotation help, as Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana are all free agents.  Montas now fills one of those holes in the pitching staff, and he’ll join Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and (if healthy) Paul Blackburn as the current starting five, though more additions are surely still to come this winter.

Much of the buzz surrounding the Mets this offseason has naturally focused on their courtship of Juan Soto, but New York has also been linked to such pitchers as Roki Sasaki and trade candidate Garrett Crochet.  There has been speculation that the Amazins could also pursue some of the top names on the pitching market, though there hasn’t been any public news on that front to date.

It could be that the Mets are holding off on other big-ticket pursuits until Soto’s situation is resolved, and Montas’ contract represents a fairly less-expensive foray into the free agent market that helps address the club’s chief need for pitching.  For now, the Montas contract resembles the two-year, $28MM deal (also with an opt-out) that Manaea signed last winter, as president of baseball operations David Stearns has thus far stuck to his strategy of inking starters to shorter-term contracts.  Montas is surely hoping that he can follow Manaea’s path of delivering a stronger full season, and then returning to free agency next year to land a lengthier and pricier contract.

The $17MM average annual value of Montas’ contract still leaves New York with plenty of space before it hits the $241MM luxury tax threshold, as RosterResource projects the club’s tax number at roughly $189.7MM.  Obviously avoiding the tax hasn’t been a priority in the Steve Cohen era and signing Soto to a record contract would alone put the Mets at or near the threshold before any other moves are made.  Just in case Soto does sign elsewhere, however, a world exists where the Mets could be aggressive this winter and still reset their tax situation entirely, which would allow the Mets to enjoy more financial flexibility (and a smaller overall tax bill) going forward.

It is perhaps noteworthy that Boras represents both Soto and Montas, and it seems likely that Boras and Stearns have discussed several of the agent’s many clients during their conversations this offseason.  Montas is already the third Boras-represented pitcher to sign a new contract this winter, after Blake Snell’s five-year, $182MM deal with the Dodgers and Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year, $63MM pact with the Angels.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X link) was the first to report the signing and the contract terms.  Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via X) added the detail about the opt-out clause, and the specific breakdown of Montas’ salaries over the two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mariners Have Had Trade Talks Involving Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner

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The Mariners are known to be looking for infield upgrades this offseason and have been exploring the trade market as part of that pursuit. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the club has had some trade discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner.

The Seattle infield is likely to be significantly different in 2025 than it was in 2024. Ty France was traded to the Reds last year. Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end. The Mariners also turned down a club option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. That leaves them J.P. Crawford at short at question marks elsewhere. Recent reporting has suggested they may be comfortable with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss covering second base until prospect Cole Young is ready, but even in that case, the corners would need to be addressed. Luke Raley is an option at first base but he could also be in the corner outfield mix and would likely need to be platooned anyway, since the lefty swinger is far better against righties.

Despite the need, the M’s were never likely to be huge players in free agency. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Seattle has never given a free agent position player more than the $24MM they gave to Mitch Garver in the era with Jerry Dipoto leading the front office. Furthermore, while the club is planning for a payroll bump relative to last year, it’s expected to be fairly modest. RosterResource projects the club to already have a fairly similar spending outlay next year as they did in 2024, so it doesn’t appear a major splash on someone like Alex Bregman or Willy Adames is likely.

All those factors, as well as Dipoto’s “Trader Jerry” reputation for being aggressive on the trade market, have pointed that to being the likely path forward. As such, the talks about Bohm and Hoerner are fairly logical developments, though a trade actually coming together may not be likely with either.

The Phillies are looking to shake up their roster and Bohm is one of the logical trade candidates they have. Many of their position players are veterans who are fairly cemented in place, either due to their key contributions, their contracts or both. Bohm, on the other hand, is a solid but not elite player who is controlled via the arbitration system through 2026.

Bohm is coming off a 2024 season in which he hit .280/.332/.448 for a wRC+ of 115, his best offensive performance in a full season thus far in his career. However, he did so in lopsided fashion, hitting .295/.348/.482 in the first half for a 128 wRC+ and .251/.299/.382 in the second half for a 90 wRC+. He’s also been a bit better against lefties in his career, which continued in 2024. He hit .287/.335/.473 with the platoon advantage for a 123 wRC+ while slashing .276/.330/.437 against righties for a 111 wRC+.

Defensively, Bohm has been a bit of a mixed bag. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have both considered him to be subpar at third base in his career but closer to league average this year. He can also play some first base as well, meaning he provides a bit of versatility.

Bohm is undoubtedly a useful player and would surely appeal to the Mariners, given their desire to reduce their strikeout problems. His 17.9% career strikeout rate is a few ticks below average and he’s been ever lower than that in the past three seasons, getting to 14.2% in 2024.

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet. Back in September, Dipoto said that dealing from the rotation was “Plan Z” for this winter. And even if Seattle was trying to move a starter, Bohm for Gilbert or Kirby wouldn’t be a good alignment in terms of trade value.

Bohm has two remaining years of arbitration control left and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.1MM. Gilbert is projected for the same salary in 2025 but can be controlled for three more seasons compared to Bohm’s two. Gilbert has also been the far more valuable player in his career, having tossed 704 1/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average. FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 12.4 wins above replacement over his four big league seasons while putting Bohm at 7.7 fWAR in his five campaigns. Kirby has four seasons of club control remaining and is projected for a modest $5.5MM salary next year. He’s also racked up 11.4 fWAR already in just three seasons by tossing over 500 innings with a 3.43 ERA.

Perhaps Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was just staking out an extreme position for the start of discussions and will bridge the gap later in the offseason, but if that’s any indication of how the Phillies genuinely view Bohm’s value, it may be tough to line up on a deal. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at some of the other potential landing spots for Bohm yesterday.

For the Cubs, Hoerner also makes sense as a trade candidate for a few reasons. That club has a crowded position player mix but there are difficulties in trading many of them. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have full no-trade clauses. Cody Bellinger’s opt-out makes it difficult to line up with another club, given the potential downside for the acquiring team. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong just took steps forward in 2024 and are still affordable and controllable. Isaac Paredes was just acquired from the Rays a few months ago and his trade value likely dropped a bit since he struggled after that swap.

Hoerner, on the other hand, might be more useful to another club. He came up as a shortstop but has been moved to second base in deference to Swanson. The defensive metrics have liked his work at the keystone but some other team might consider him a viable shortstop if given the chance. Offensively, he’s been just a bit above average in his career, hitting .278/.338/.381 for a 102 wRC+. He’s also stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past three years. He will make $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026 as part of the extension he signed last year.

Going into the winter, there was an argument for the Cubs to trade Hoerner for pitching, thus opening up second base for a prospect such as Matt Shaw or James Triantos. However, Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery in October, which complicates the possibility of a trade coming together somewhat. His recovery timeline is still uncertain, which will make it hard for the Cubs and another club to line up on a valuation.

His primary position being second base is also imperfect, given that the M’s appear to prefer to add at the corners. Hoerner does have some third base experience but just 41 1/3 innings in the majors. He does have a contact-based approach, with a career strikeout rate of just 12%, which would line up well with Seattle’s plans to improve in that department.

Per Jude, the Cubs are seeking “proven major league talent”, but the Mariners seem to be more interested in dealing from their farm system. Jude notes that the club has eight prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Logan Evans, Michael Arroyo, Felnin Celesten) and could use that stockpile of talent to upgrade the major league roster. Given the club’s aforementioned budgetary constraints, penchant for swinging deals and stated desire to keep their big league rotation intact, trading from that group seems more likely than giving up someone like Gilbert or Kirby.

Though they won’t be huge players in free agency, Jude adds that the club remains in contact with Turner and old friend Carlos Santana, which is a connection that has been made in previous reports. Turner is now 40 and Santana will be 39 in April, so both will be limited to one-year deals with fairly modest salaries.

Bidding For Juan Soto Has Reached At Least $600MM

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The floor for Juan Soto’s contract appears to be $600MM. Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic report that every team that remains in the Soto bidding has made a formal offer at or above that number.

With multiple $600MM+ offers in hand, there’s not much chance of Soto pivoting to a short-term deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that the four-time All-Star wasn’t interested in taking a shorter term to prioritize his annual earnings. Heyman suggested Soto was seeking a 15-year contract. It’s not clear whether that’ll be on the table, though tonight’s report from The Athletic indicates he’s likely to sign for at least 12 years. That’ll presumably come with one or more opt-out chances as well.

Agent Scott Boras did not comment publicly about contract terms. However, he told reporters this evening that Soto has begun to narrow the field. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future,” Boras said at today’s introductory presser for another of his clients, Blake Snell.

While Soto reportedly fielded interest from 11 teams at the beginning of the offseason, it seems a clear five suitors have emerged: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Most speculation throughout the industry is that he’ll land with one of the New York franchises. To that end, Rosenthal, Drellich and Kuty write that many people around the game expect that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen will refuse to be outbid.

That said, there’s been chatter in recent weeks that the Red Sox are making a serious push. Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link) each suggested last night that the Blue Jays might come in with the highest bid at the end of the day. Reporting has generally cast the Dodgers as something of a long shot, but it’s impossible to count them out on any top-tier free agent.

In any case, Soto seems mere days away from establishing a record for the top net present value in MLB history. That’s currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose deal is valued by MLB just shy of $461MM after accounting for deferrals. There was never much doubt that Soto would beat that, though it was fair to wonder whether the bidding would stop somewhere between $500MM and $600MM.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soto would receive exactly $600MM over 13 years — a number that looks as if it’ll be light. While it doesn’t seem that decision will come within the next 24 hours, there’s a widespread belief that Soto will make his call by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Red Sox Sign Aroldis Chapman

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The Red Sox announced the signing of Aroldis Chapman to a one-year contract. The deal reportedly guarantees the Wasserman client $10.75MM.

Boston becomes the left-hander’s fifth different team since 2022. Chapman is no longer the elite closer he was during his peak with the Reds and Yankees. He’s still an effective, if somewhat volatile, reliever despite scattershot command. He turned in a 3.79 ERA over 61 2/3 innings for the Pirates this year. Signed as a setup option in front of David Bednar, Chapman recorded 22 holds before taking over as closer for the struggling Bednar late in the season. He picked up 14 saves, his highest total in three years, and only surrendered five leads.

Even as he enters his age-37 season, Chapman is one of the league’s hardest-throwing relievers. He averaged 97.8 MPH on his four-seam fastball and 99.8 MPH on his sinker. While Chapman is no longer in a league of his own in terms of velocity, that’s rare arm speed from the left side. Among southpaws with at least five innings pitched, only Jose A. Ferrer and Gregory Soto threw their four-seamers harder on average. Chapman’s sinker velocity led all southpaws and ranked fourth in MLB overall, trailing Emmanuel Clase, Justin Martinez and Seth Halvorsen.

That high-octane stuff continues to lead to plenty of strikeouts. Chapman fanned 37% of batters faced with Pittsburgh. Among relievers with 20+ innings, Chapman ranked eighth in strikeout rate. His 14.7% walk percentage was the ninth-highest mark among that group. Fewer than half of his plate appearances ended with a ball in play. There’ll be a lot of free passes, but Chapman’s stuff is good enough that he still manages to work out of trouble more often than not.

This is the second bullpen pickup of the offseason for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and the Boston front office. They also brought in Justin Wilson last month to work in the middle innings. There could be room for one more addition with four Sox relievers hitting free agency. They’re expected to let Kenley Jansen walk and could also lose Chris Martin, Luis García and Lucas Sims. Liam Hendriks should be back from Tommy John surgery and is the favorite to replace Jansen as Alex Cora’s closer. Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten should be their top setup option from the right side. Cam Booser and Brennan Bernardino, who had been their top internal lefties, profile as middle relievers rather than high-leverage arms.

Chapman did not place among MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents. That said, he was one of the best available lefties for teams that didn’t want to play at the top of the market for Tanner Scott. He earns a very slight raise relative to last winter, when he signed with Pittsburgh for $10.5MM.

The move brings the Red Sox’s estimated payroll, including arbitration projections, to roughly $148MM (courtesy of RosterResource). Boston is up to approximately $181MM in luxury tax obligations. They’re $60MM shy of the base tax threshold. CEO Sam Kennedy indicated the Sox could exceed the threshold, one of myriad comments from team brass signaling a big offseason. There’ll be a lot more to come from Breslow and company, who are one of five teams known to be involved on Juan Soto and have been tied to every top-end free agent starting pitcher.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the Red Sox and Chapman had made progress on a deal. Mike Rodriguez confirmed there was a deal in place. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the contract terms. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes Post Hyeseong Kim

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10:41pm: The Heroes announced that the posting window will open at 8:00 am Eastern on Thursday. MLB is evidently waiting until tomorrow to formally notify teams about his availability. Kim will have until 5:00 pm Eastern on January 3 to sign (X link via Yoo).

9:17pm: The KBO announced that the Heroes have officially made Kim available via the posting system. The posting went into effect at noon on Wednesday in South Korean time, not at 12:00 pm Eastern as previously reported. According to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (X link), the 30-day signing period will officially begin at 8:00 a.m. Eastern the morning after MLB informs teams of Kim’s posting.

2:30pm: Infielder Hyeseong Kim is expected to be officially posted by the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization on Wednesday at noon Eastern/11am Central, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (X link). Once it’s official, that will start a 30-day window where all MLB clubs can negotiate with Kim and his representatives. If no deal is signed in that time, he will return to the Heroes for the 2025 season. (The NPB posting window has been expanded from 30 days to 45 days but KBO players still have a 30-day time frame.)

Kim, 26 in January, said himself last week that he believed the formal posting process was about a week away. It appears that timeline is holding, so Kim will be officially be available to MLB clubs as of tomorrow. Kim will be considered a “professional” under MLB rules because he is at least 25 years old and has at least six years of experience in a foreign league. As such, he can sign a deal of any length or dollar amount, depending on what MLB clubs are willing to offer. That’s in contrast to someone like Roki Sasaki, who is only 23 years old and will therefore be capped by the international bonus system.

It isn’t likely that Kim will secure a massive deal, but he could still have some interest. He is expected to provide a somewhat similar skillset to his former double play partner Ha-Seong Kim, no relation, as both players are considered sure-handed defenders at multiple spots on the diamond. Hyeseong has mostly played the two middle infield spots, but also with brief stints at third base and in the outfield corners.

Offensively, Hyeseong is a tick below Ha-Seong, however. Hyeseong has slashed .304/.364/.403 in his eight KBO seasons whereas Ha-Seong hit .294/.373/.493 in his seven campaigns in Korea. The batting average and on-base numbers are fairly close but Ha-Seong clearly has the edge in terms of slugging. Hyeseong got to 11 home runs in 2024, a career high for him, whereas Ha-Seong had 19 or more homers in his final six KBO seasons, including 30 in the final year.

Still, even if Hyeseong is a tick below Ha-Seong in the power department, his youth and athleticism should work in his favor. As mentioned, he is considered a strong defender and could be placed at multiple different positions. He has stolen between 20 and 46 bases in each of the past six seasons.

MLBTR predicted he could secure a three-year deal with a $24MM guarantee as part of the annual Top 50 Free Agents post. However, predicting the interest in a player making the move from overseas can be difficult, as players like Jung Hoo Lee and Masataka Yoshida both proved to have much more earning power than was assumed by forecasters.

The Mariners are reportedly interested in Kim but it stands to reason that plenty of others would be in the mix as well, given his versatility. Clubs like the Giants, White Sox, Marlins, Brewers and others are speculative fits. Players like Willy Adames, Ha-Seong Kim, Gleyber Torres and others are also available in the middle infield free agent market. They will be joined by Hyeseong but the 30-day posting window means there will be clarity on his status by the first few days of 2025, at the latest.

In addition to the money going to Kim, a signing club will also have to pay a posting fee to the Heroes, the value of which will depend upon the size of the contract. The fee will be calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Additional earnings, such as performance bonuses/incentives or salaries on option years fall under that purview once they are unlocked or exercised.

Blake Snell’s Deal With Dodgers Includes Conditional Club Option

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Left-hander Blake Snell and the Dodgers reportedly agreed to a deal a week ago and the club officially announced it on the weekend, but the finer details of the pact are still trickling out. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X link), the $182MM guarantee breaks down as a $52MM signing bonus followed by $26MM salaries in each of the five years of the deal, though with $13.2MM deferred annually without interest. There’s a $5MM assignment bonus if Snell is traded. Additionally, there’s a $10MM club option for 2030 under certain conditions: if Snell hasn’t been assigned to another club and has 90 or more days in a row on the injured list due to specific injury.

Many of these details came out in the initial reporting, including the guarantee, the signing bonus, the assignment bonus and that there were significant deferrals. However, the deferrals are slightly higher than initially thought. The numbers reported last week were $13MM in annual deferrals for a total of $65MM, but we now know that it’s slightly higher than that, with the $13.2MM annual figure actually getting the total number of deferrals to $66MM. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link), the MLBPA calculates the net present value of the deal at $150.336MM.

But the conditional option is the most significant new development today, as there was no prior reporting about Snell’s contract extending into the 2030 season in any way. Now it’s known that the Dodgers could potentially hold onto Snell for a sixth year, though only under certain circumstances.

Given the conditions, it seems it gives the Dodgers a bit of an insurance policy in the event Snell ends up with a significant injury over the course of the deal. Presumably, the specific injury would involve something related to his pitching elbow, whether that’s Tommy John surgery or some internal brace alternative. Such surgeries have become increasingly common in baseball in recent decades but still require pitchers to spend upwards of a year recovering.

Assuming that is the specific injury covered in the contract, the Dodgers would have the choice of keeping Snell around for an extra year, compensating them in a way for the lost year. Snell will be 37 years old by the time 2030 rolls around, so it’s anyone’s guess what kind of form he will be in at that point, especially if there’s a notable injury along the way. But $10MM is already not a lot of money for a starting pitcher.

Last winter, veteran back-end guys like Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn got $13MM and $11MM guarantees on one-year deals, respectively. Wade Miley and Alex Wood were not far behind at $8.5MM. Inflation generally pushes salaries up over time, so those kinds of deals might creep up a bit between now and 2030.

It’s also possible Snell’s future talent level is above where those guys are now, given that he’s a two-time Cy Young winner and has had a more impressive peak than anyone in that group. Not all pitchers can maintain that kind of performance into their late 30s, but those who do are handsomely rewarded. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler were each recently able to secure salaries of $42MM or higher for deals that covered their late 30s or early 40s, so Snell at $10MM could be a massive bargain if he continues to pitch well over the course of the deal.

The fact that the option is also conditional on Snell not being assigned to another club is also interesting, as it could reduce the chances of Snell being traded while hurt. Robbie Ray underwent Tommy John surgery while with the Mariners and found himself traded to the Giants before he recovered from that procedure. If Snell ends up missing some time and unlocking that option for the Dodgers, they might be more inclined to keep him and take advantage of that option. All of this is moot for now, but it could become relevant down the line, depending on how things play out in the next five years.

Rangers Sign Kyle Higashioka To Two-Year Deal

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The Rangers announced the signing of catcher Kyle Higashioka to a two-year contract with a mutual option for 2027. Higashioka, a Beverly Hills Sports Council client, is reportedly guaranteed $13.5MM. He’ll make successive salaries of $5.75MM and $6.75MM over the next two seasons. He’s also guaranteed a $1MM buyout on the ’27 option, which is valued at $7MM. The Rangers now have 39 players on their 40-man roster.

Higashioka was one of the top catchers in a weak free agent class. He’d been a first-time free agent even though he’ll turn 35 in April. Drafted out of high school by the Yankees in 2008, Higashioka spent nine seasons in the minors before he got his first big league call. He bounced on and off the MLB roster for another three years. It wasn’t until he’d exhausted his minor league options that he got a permanent big league job in 2020.

New York never gave Higashioka a look as a legitimate starting catcher. He spent four-plus seasons in a backup role while working as Gerrit Cole’s personal catcher. The Yankees packaged him to the Padres in last winter’s Juan Soto blockbuster. While San Diego was looking for a veteran backup who could work behind Luis Campusano, Higashioka was generally viewed as the final piece of their five-player Soto return.

The Huntington Beach native ended up as a surprisingly key contributor to San Diego’s 93-win team. Campusano struggled on both sides of the ball and eventually played his way off the big league roster. Higashioka, on the other hand, had the best season of his career. He hit a personal-high 17 home runs over 84 games. The longball made him a decent offensive player despite terrible on-base marks. Higashioka ran a bizarre .220/.263/.476 batting line over 267 trips to the plate.

Only 21 hitters (minimum 200 plate appearances) had a lower on-base percentage. Still, Higashioka is the only player who ranked among MLB’s bottom 30 in OBP who nevertheless graded as an above-average overall hitter by measure of wRC+ — a testament to his power production. By year’s end, Higashioka had overtaken Campusano as Mike Shildt’s starting catcher. He drilled three more homers in seven postseason games.

Higashioka has earned a solid defensive reputation. Statcast has looked favorably on his pitch framing skills, while he’s generally well-regarded for his ability to work with a pitching staff. Higashioka has struggled as a blocker in consecutive seasons, though. He was charged with nine passed balls across 665 2/3 innings this year. Only Francisco Alvarez (11) was charged with more. Korey Lee and Patrick Bailey tied Higashioka with nine passed balls, but they each caught 150+ more innings than he did. Statcast placed him in the bottom third of qualified catchers in average pop time, though his 20% caught stealing rate was in line with the MLB average.

The on-base deficiencies and perhaps some concern about his arm strength have kept Higashioka from getting a full-time starting job. He has never tallied 300 plate appearances in an MLB season. Teams have viewed him more as a high-quality backup than a true #1 catcher.

Texas has 2023 All-Star Jonah Heim as their primary option behind the plate. Heim had a disappointing ’24 campaign, slumping to a .220/.267/.336 line over 491 plate appearances. Heim has topped 125 games in three straight seasons. Between the regular season and playoffs, he appeared in 148 contests in 2023. Higashioka isn’t likely to supplant him as the starting catcher, but the veteran’s presence could allow manager Bruce Bochy to scale back Heim’s workload by 15-20 games.

Texas got almost nothing out of backup catcher Andrew Knizner for the first few months of the season. The Rangers acquired Carson Kelly at the deadline, but he stumbled to a .235/.291/.343 showing in 31 games. With Kelly hitting free agency, GM Chris Young and his staff targeted Higashioka to hopefully solidify the catching corps.

RosterResource now calculates the Rangers’ payroll around $185MM, while they have about $195MM in luxury tax obligations. Texas reportedly intends to stay underneath the tax threshold in 2025. They’ve got around $46MM in breathing room before they hit that mark, though it’s unclear precisely where ownership will draw the line as the Rangers try to arrange a new setup for their in-market local broadcasting.

Higashioka’s deal meets expectations. MLBTR predicted he’d receive a two-year, $15MM pact that’s marginally higher than what he actually landed. Four free agent catchers have come off the board within the first few weeks of the offseason. Higashioka joins Travis d’Arnaud as recipients of multi-year deals, while Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges each signed for one guaranteed season. Alongside Kelly, Danny Jansen stands as the top free agent for teams looking for help behind the dish.

The Padres are one of those clubs. Higashioka’s departure leaves the Padres with an obvious need behind the plate. Campusano and Brett Sullivan are the only catchers on their 40-man roster. Neither looks like a viable starter for a team with postseason aspirations. Top prospect Ethan Salas is hopefully the long-term solution, but the teenager is unlikely to make an MLB impact by next season.

Jon Morosi of the MLB Network first reported the Rangers and Higashioka were making progress on an agreement. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News confirmed the deal was in place. Jeff Wilson of DLLS Sports reported the salary breakdown. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Clay Holmes Drawing Interest As Starting Pitcher

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Clay Holmes is one of the top bullpen arms in free agency. While Holmes is surely drawing interest in his typical relief role, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that a few clubs are considering the right-hander as a candidate for a move to the rotation. According to Sherman, the Mets are among the teams looking into Holmes as a potential starter.

The bullpen-to-rotation move has become increasingly prevalent in recent years. The Rays have found success with rotation conversions for the likes of Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell. The Yankees started to stretch Michael King out into rotation work at the end of the 2023 season. King dominated in that role, centered the Padres’ trade return for Juan Soto, and turned in an excellent first full season as a starter.

Teams have been especially willing to stretch free agent signees back into rotation work. San Diego hit on their decision to sign Seth Lugo as a starter going into 2023. One year later, Lugo finished second in Cy Young balloting for the Royals. The Braves and Giants took this path with Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks, respectively, last winter. Hicks tailed off in the second half, but López turned in a 1.99 earned run average over 25 starts for Atlanta (albeit with a pair of late-season injured list stints). The White Sox developed Garrett Crochet from a talented reliever with workload concerns to a top-of-the-rotation arm who should net them a huge trade return this offseason. The Angels found some success with a rotation move for sinkerballer José Soriano.

Given the number of hits just within the past three to four years, it’s little surprise teams are interested in continuing the experiment. Jeff Hoffman, the top righty reliever of the free agent class, has already gotten attention as a starter. There’s risk in taking a successful pitcher out of the role in which he’s most comfortable, but the upside of a successful rotation move is tremendous. Even if the pitcher flames out as a starter, as A.J. Puk did with the Marlins this year, there’s a decent chance he could return to the ’pen without too much issue.

Holmes, who turns 32 on Opening Day, has essentially no major league experience as a starting pitcher. He has made four MLB starts, all of which came as a rookie with the Pirates in 2018. That’s a minuscule sample from six years ago, so there’s little to be gleaned from it, but Holmes struggled in that look (15 innings of 7.80 ERA ball with 13 walks and 12 strikeouts). Like many big league relievers, Holmes did work as a starting pitcher for the bulk of his minor league career.

Since moving to the bullpen, Holmes has essentially scrapped his changeup. His mid-upper 90s sinker is his primary pitch. He has a pair of distinct breaking balls (a slider around 87 MPH and a sweeper in the 83-84 MPH range) and uses each 20-25% of the time. That’s more promising for a potential rotation move than if he were strictly limited to two pitches. Still, he’d likely try out changeup or splitter grips if he’s working deeper into games. Finding a viable changeup, which is easier said than done, would give him a different look as he faces left-handed hitters multiple times in an outing.

Holmes has had some platoon issues throughout his career. He has stifled righty batters to a .209/.295/.293 slash across 843 plate appearances. Lefties have hit .250/.359/.346 over 618 trips to the plate. There’s a huge discrepancy in his strikeout and walk profile. Holmes has excellent strikeout and walk numbers (28.9% and 8.7%, respectively) when he holds the platoon advantage. His K/BB rates against left-handed hitters (18.9% and 12.9%, respectively) are very poor. He has been able to avoid the home run ball against hitters from either side of the plate, though. He gets a ton of grounders regardless of his opponent’s handedness, which served him well over three and a half seasons at Yankee Stadium.

Overall, Holmes had a strong run as New York’s closer. He turned in a 2.69 ERA across 217 2/3 innings as a Yankee. Holmes has topped 20 saves in each of the last three years and set a career mark with 30 saves this past season, but his production wobbled midway through the year. Holmes gave up the lead 13 times, five more than any other pitcher. The Yanks bumped him from the ninth inning for Luke Weaver down the stretch and into the playoffs. Holmes continued to struggle in September before finishing the year with 12 innings of 2.25 ERA ball in the postseason. He recorded five holds and didn’t blow a lead in October.

The Mets lost a trio of starters — Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino — to free agency. They’ve begun to backfill the rotation by agreeing to a two-year deal with Frankie Montas. There’s a lot more work to be done as they build around Kodai Senga and David Peterson. The Mets are sensible fits for any of the top free agent starters, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has gone the reclamation route with the Manaea, Severino and Montas signings over the past two winters. New York has more than enough payroll space to sign a top-tier free agent (e.g. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried) and add another starter from the middle of the market. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $30MM contract for Holmes, who did not receive a qualifying offer and wouldn’t cost any draft compensation.

Dodgers Sign Blake Snell To Five-Year Deal

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The Dodgers continue to load up, as they announced their five-year contract with left-hander Blake Snell Saturday afternoon. The deal, which is pending a physical, comes with a $182MM guarantee but reportedly includes $65MM in deferrals ($13MM per year) that’ll reduce the net present value to the $160-165MM range. Snell, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a $52MM signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, while the deal includes a $5MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. The contract does not contain any opt-out provisions and covers Snell’s age 32-36 seasons.

It’s the offseason’s biggest move to date and represents a much quicker resolution than Snell’s previous trip to the market. The star southpaw was coming off a Cy Young campaign last winter. The long-term deal he sought didn’t materialize, leading to an extended free agent stay. Snell went unsigned into March before joining the Giants on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $62MM and, more importantly, allowed him to opt out after the first season.

Snell had a dismal start to the season. He allowed more than a run per inning over his first six appearances. He landed on the injured list twice in the first three months while battling groin discomfort. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a near-lock that Snell would bypass the chance to return to free agency.

That all changed as soon as he returned from his second IL stint. By the end of the season, there was no doubt he’d pass on the remaining $30MM on his pact with San Francisco. Snell was the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch. Over his final 14 starts, he turned in a 1.23 earned run average while holding opponents to a .123/.211/.171 batting line that looked like a throwback to the days when pitchers hit.

Snell struck out more than 38% of batters faced over that run. He had five double-digit strikeout performances and fanned at least eight hitters in 10 outings. Snell had the best two-start run of his career right around the trade deadline. He struck out 15 over six scoreless innings against the Rockies on July 27 before no-hitting the Reds with 11 punchouts on August 2.

The overall numbers were still weighed down to some extent by his terrible first two months. He wrapped up the year with a 3.12 ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 104 innings spanning 20 starts. That’s a strong season but didn’t earn him a single Cy Young vote. The overall platform year was less impressive than the 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball he posted during his ’23 campaign in San Diego. Snell finished the season looking every bit as dominant as he’d been during his Cy Young years, though.

It seems the Dodgers are attributing the first two months to some combination of an abbreviated Spring Training and the injuries. While this year was the most extreme example, Snell has been a slow starter throughout his career. He has a 3.95 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate in the first half of his nine big league seasons. The ERA plummets to 2.39 while he has raised his strikeout percentage above 32% after the All-Star Break.

The main knock has been his lack of consistent durability. Snell has reached the 180-inning threshold on two occasions — his 2018 Cy Young season with the Rays and his ’23 award-winning campaign. Outside those seasons, Snell has topped out in the 125-130 inning range.

That’s not a concern for the Dodgers, who have shown they’re far more interested in chasing upside than bulk. Los Angeles acquired and extended Tyler Glasnow last offseason even though he’d never topped 120 MLB innings in a season. The Dodgers will give Shohei Ohtani another chance to pitch coming off his second significant elbow surgery. They’re almost certainly going to reunite with Clayton Kershaw. They’ve graduated a number of talented pitchers from the farm system but seen a lot of them go down to injuries.

It’s an approach geared heavily toward the postseason. The Dodgers prioritize pitchers who profile as potential Game 1 starters. They’re very willing to assume injury risk while chasing that ceiling. That left them woefully short on starting pitching in 2023, resulting in a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks in the Division Series. The injuries mounted again this fall, but they had just enough in the form of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to patch together an October rotation. With a star-studded lineup, that was sufficient to lift their second trophy in five years.

Snell arguably fits that mold as well as any pitcher in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past two years, only Reynaldo López and Tarik Skubal have a lower ERA than his 2.57 mark. Snell’s 32.7% strikeout rate is second, trailing only Glasnow by a fraction of a percentage point. No one has a higher swinging strike rate.

The Dodgers have four pitchers who could start the first game of a playoff series. Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow are each capable of providing ace-caliber production on a rate basis. It’s unlikely all four will be healthy come playoff time, but the Dodgers have no shortage of talented options behind them. Kershaw figures to be back in the rotation mix once he re-signs, while Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and prospect Nick Frasso are returning from major surgeries. Bobby Miller is looking to rebound from a terrible sophomore season after turning in a 3.76 ERA across 22 starts as a rookie. Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski are capable depth arms.

That’s before considering the possibility of further acquisitions. The Dodgers will surely make a push for NPB ace Roki Sasaki, who’d arguably be the fifth starter if he went to L.A. Even if Sasaki signs elsewhere, the Dodgers could pursue Garrett Crochet on the offseason trade market and/or continue adding starting pitching at the deadline.

Of course, the ability to stockpile this kind of rotation talent is a reflection of the Dodgers’ financial might. Even if other front offices share their general approach to valuing upside over durability, few ownership groups are willing to match L.A.’s spending. The Dodgers had generally shied away from pitching splashes under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, but that has changed over the past calendar year. This is their third nine-figure pitching investment since last offseason (fourth including Ohtani). They signed Yamamoto for $325MM and extended Glasnow on a deal that included $110MM in new money.

MLBTR ranked Snell as the #2 starting pitcher in the class and predicted a five-year, $160MM contract. The deal’s actual value lands right around there. The specific NPV won’t be clear until the deferral structure is revealed. The expected $32-33MM luxury tax hit indicates the deal will have a net present value in the $160-165MM range. That’d be the second-biggest luxury tax hit on L.A.’s books, trailing only the approximate $46.1MM CBT number on Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700MM contract.

In any case, the deal is likely to push the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax figure north of $300MM. They’ll almost certainly land in the fourth and final tier of penalization, which begins at $301MM. The Dodgers are subject to the highest tier of escalation penalties for paying the tax in at least three straight seasons. The Snell deal itself will cost the Dodgers something in the range of $25-30MM in taxes by vaulting them from the middle of the second penalization tier to the start of the highest tax bracket. Future spending will be taxed at the maximum 110% clip.

It’s a major commitment but one the Dodgers are well-positioned to make. They’re coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series win. More importantly, the structure of Ohtani’s contract allows the Dodgers to continue stockpiling talent. While the Ohtani deal was not an end-around the luxury tax, there’s a huge benefit from a raw payroll perspective. Paying the NL MVP a $2MM salary for the next nine seasons is a big reason they’re able to continue taking on huge money in the short term.

Snell slotted alongside Corbin Burnes and ahead of Max Fried as the top starters in this year’s class. In addition to fitting the Dodgers’ general preference for high-ceiling arms, Snell came with the benefit of not costing draft compensation. He’s the only of the top three starters who wasn’t issued a qualifying offer. Snell had received the QO during his first free agent trip, so the Giants could not make the offer this time around. Burnes and Fried each rejected a qualifying offer and would’ve cost the Dodgers their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft and $1MM from their ’26 bonus pool for international amateurs.

Burnes and Fried become the clear #1-2 options for the other teams seeking top-flight starting pitching. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported this evening that the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles were also in the Snell bidding. They’ve all been tied to top-of-the-market starting pitchers — Boston especially — and should remain active on that front in the weeks to come.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the Dodgers and Snell had a five-year deal, shortly after the pitcher revealed on Instagram that he was joining L.A. Jeff Passan and Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the $182MM guarantee. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported that the deal contained deferrals that would drop the net present value to the $32-33MM range annually. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times was first with the $52MM signing bonus, while Feinsand had the limited no-trade protection. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported the absence of an opt-out clause. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the presence of an assignment bonus, which Harris relayed at $5MM. Heyman first reported the exact breakdown of the deferrals.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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