Reynaldo Lopez

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | November 22, 2023 at 11:58pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

The Phillies re-sign Aaron Nola (0:50)
The Braves sign Reynaldo López (7:20)
The Cardinals sign Lance Lynn (10:30)
Interesting non-tenders, including Brandon Woodruff… (12:10)
Spencer Turnbull… (14:10)
..and Rowdy Tellez (17:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

Braves Sign Reynaldo Lopez

By Steve Adams | November 20, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve signed right-hander Reynaldo Lopez to a three-year contract that will guarantee him $30MM. The CAA client will be paid $4MM in 2024 and $11MM in both 2025 and 2026. There’s an $8MM club option for the 2027 season with a $4MM buyout.

Lopez becomes the fifth name added to the Braves’ bullpen mix since their season ended, joining re-signed righties Joe Jimenez (three years, $26MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $14.25MM) and trade acquisitions Aaron Bummer and Jackson Kowar. Interestingly, however, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that the Braves will have Lopez prepare as a starting pitcher this winter.

While the club isn’t necessarily penciling Lopez into the 2024 rotation, the Braves believe he can have success in either role and ramping him down from starting to relieving is of course easier than the inverse. Lopez’s specific role may not be determined until the spring, but it’s certainly notable that there’s at least a chance he’ll get another look as a starter with his new club.

Lopez, 30 in January, has plenty of experience in both roles but hasn’t had much success as a starting pitcher. Once one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, he went from the Nationals to the White Sox alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the 2016 trade sending Adam Eaton back to Washington. While he gave the White Sox 32 starts and 188 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in 2018, he did so with shaky peripherals. On the whole, Lopez carries a lifetime 3.01 ERA out of the bullpen but a much rockier 4.73 mark as a starter.

Lopez’s career took off, in earnest, with a full-time move to the bullpen — a role in which he’s excelled for the past two seasons, albeit in different ways. The flamethrowing righty had a rough start in ’22 but was one of the sport’s most dominant bullpen arms over that season’s final four months, logging a 1.54 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 3.1% walk rate from early June through season’s end. Overall, his 2022 campaign ended with a sterling 2.76 ERA, a slightly above-average strikeout rate (24.8%) and an elite walk rate (4.3%).

In 2023, Lopez’s run prevention was again strong (3.27 ERA), but he took a different route to get there. Brandishing a fastball that was now averaging a blistering 98.4 mph — a 1.3 mph increase over the prior season’s already-strong 97.1 mph — Lopez punched out a huge 29.9% of his opponents. However, his 12.2% walk rate was nearly triple that of the prior season. He all but abandoned his curveball, throwing it at just a 1.2% clip (after 7.2% in 2022).

The 2023 version of Lopez was effectively a two-pitch pitcher: blazing fastball and hard slider (with a seldom-used changeup and curveball). He has, however, had seasons where he’s thrown both his change and his hook at a 20% clip or higher, so there’s certainly a diverse enough collection of pitches in his arsenal to succeed as a starter — if the Braves can coax better and more consistent results from his secondary offerings. If Lopez were to work as a starter, it’s only natural to think his fastball velocity would drop a tick, but he’s still have well above-average heat regardless.

To an extent, it’s possible that Lopez’s ultimate usage in 2024 depends on the remainder of Atlanta’s offseason. As things stand, the Braves’ rotation includes Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder. There’ll be competition for that fifth spot, likely including Lopez but also featuring top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, veteran Ian Anderson (who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery), southpaw Dylan Dodd and righty Huascar Ynoa. The Braves have been linked to some free agents of note thus far, and if they succeed in signing Sonny Gray or acquiring another veteran starter, that’d likely push Lopez more firmly into the bullpen.

If Lopez ends up in his more familiar bullpen role, he’ll join a comically deep group. In addition to the aforementioned Jimenez, Johnson and Bummer, the Braves will deploy Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek in what’s shaping up to be one of the most experienced and most talented collection of relief arms in the Majors.

Lopez’s $4MM salary for the 2024 season pushes the Braves’ payroll up to around $207MM, per Roster Resource’s projections. However, while its backloaded nature spares Atlanta some bottom-line payroll in the upcoming season, the contract still comes with a much heftier $10MM luxury-tax hit, as all luxury calculations are based on a deal’s average annual value.

The $10MM AAV on Lopez’s contract pushes the Braves squarely into luxury-tax territory, as they’re now at about $241.6MM of luxury considerations — comfortably north of this year’s $237MM luxury barrier. They also paid the luxury tax last season, meaning their penalty levels will rise. Rather than a 20% dollar-for-dollar tax, they’ll now pay a 30% tax (with increasing penalties if they surpass the threshold by more than $20MM total). They’re also in line for even harsher penalties come 2025, as third-time payors face even steeper rates of taxation.

Quick Hits: Lovullo, Votto, Carter, Lopez

By Mark Polishuk | October 8, 2023 at 10:46pm CDT

Torey Lovullo received a one-year contract extension back in June, and it looks like a longer-term deal might soon be in the works for the Diamondbacks manager. GM Mike Hazen told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert that when Lovullo’s extension was being negotiated over the summer, he told the skipper “we got to get through the rest of the season. And I said if good things happen and we get to the playoffs and we get where we need to go, that he and I will have another conversation.”

Needless to say, plenty of “good things” have indeed taken place. The D’Backs reached the playoffs, upset the NL Central-winning Brewers, and are two wins away from upsetting the Dodgers and reaching the NLCS for the third time in franchise history. Lovullo and Hazen both joined the organization prior to the 2017 season, and with Hazen’s new deal keeping him in Arizona through at least the 2028 campaign, it makes sense that Lovullo would also be getting some extra security. With the D’Backs going through some struggles prior to 2023, Lovullo had been kept on something of a short leash, as his previous two contracts had been a one-year deal with a club option (that was exercised), and then the one-year extension from June that has him locked up through the 2024 season.

Guardians Claim Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore

By Steve Adams | August 31, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

In a swift retooling of the pitching staff, the Guardians have claimed right-handers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez and lefty Matt Moore off waivers from the Angels, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN report. It’s a sudden, jarring final push to salvage a postseason appearance by Cleveland — one that would have seemed impossible just 72 hours ago.

The Angels’ decision to place roughly a quarter of their roster on waivers — Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone all hit waivers on Tuesday as well — stunned the industry, though the rationale behind it is at least sound. The Angels aggressively pushed for a postseason berth at the deadline, acquiring Giolito, Lopez, Grichuk and C.J. Cron, but have since lost two-thirds of their games and fallen from postseason contention in a stacked AL West. (Somewhat amusingly, their 64-70 record is the same as the Guardians, though the AL Central is the sport’s weakest division.)

That slate of trades pushed the Halos over the luxury tax threshold, which would reduce their draft compensation in the event that Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere after rejecting a qualifying offer. They’d also face steeper penalties in 2024 in the event that they exceeded the tax barrier next year. But, by waiving this slate of players and seeing each of Giolito, Lopez, Moore, Renfroe (Reds) and Leone (Mariners) all come off the books, the Angels will duck back under the tax threshold. Their theoretical comp pick for Ohtani’s departure would come prior to the third round of the draft rather than between the fourth and fifth rounds. They also won’t face any escalating penalties in the event that they wind up as a luxury tax payor next season.

It’s a bad look for MLB to see such a brazenly non-competitive move by a team that just four weeks ago energized its fanbase and clubhouse with a bold win-now push. At the same time, the Angels can’t really be faulted for the decision at this juncture, given the manner in which things have played out. They’re merely taking advantage of the rules that have been collectively bargained between the league and the Players Association. None of the players they waived would’ve been eligible or considered for a qualifying offer anyhow, so there’s quite literally no incentive for the Angels to hold onto them and strong incentive for them to engage in this tactic now that their playoff hopes are all but mathematically dashed.

While Major League Baseball perhaps ought to look into ways to prevent mass roster purges of this nature in future Augusts, there’s little to be done about it now — and the Guardians stand to benefit. Cleveland has spent the entirety of the year looking up at the Twins in the American League Central standings, and after taking two of three from Minnesota in their just-completed series now faces only a five-game deficit. It’s worth wondering what might’ve happened if the Twins had swept or at least won the series — Minnesota was within one strike of winning yesterday’s game, but the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead — though perhaps Cleveland would’ve made the claims even if facing a six- or seven-game deficit.

A firm answer to that hypothetical probably can’t ever be known, but it’s a moot point anyhow; the Guardians’ comeback win yesterday brought them within striking distance of the Twins in the division, and they’ll now add three high-caliber arms to their pitching staff. Giolito, of course, is the most notable of the bunch and perhaps the most vital, given the extent of the pitching injuries that have ravaged the Cleveland rotation this year. Each of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill has been out more seven weeks. The Guardians, acknowledging that their playoff hopes had slipped, traded Aaron Civale to the Rays prior to the deadline.

Giolito joins a rookie-laden rotation, adding a veteran arm to stand alongside the impressive trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen. The expectation is that Quantrill will soon be ready to join that group, and the club has also expressed optimism that Bieber could return late in the month.

While the 2023 season has been Giolito’s worst in recent memory, that’s largely due to poor results with the team that just waived him. After pitching to a 3.79 ERA with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate in 121 innings with the White Sox, Giolito was torched for a 6.89 ERA with worse strikeout (22.8%) and walk (10.3%) rates as a member of the Halos. Most dramatically, an already too-high home run rate of 1.49 per nine innings pitched spiked to 2.76 as an Angel.

Looking at Giolito’s track record as a whole, however, it’s easy enough to see why he was claimed by several teams (the others all having lower waiver priority than Cleveland). Dating back to 2019, Giolito sports a 3.99 ERA in 743 innings. His strikeout rate has dipped over the past two seasons, but he’s still averaging 93-94 mph on his heater, punching out about a quarter of his opponents, and has generally shown good command throughout his MLB career. The Cy Young-caliber breakout many expected perhaps never came, but Giolito is a durable mid-rotation arm who misses bats, limits walks and is a playoff-caliber arm.

Meanwhile, an already excellent Cleveland bullpen will now add two formidable arms in Lopez and Moore. Guardians relievers already rank fifth in the Majors with a 3.48 ERA, and the addition of two veterans just in time for rosters to expand will put them in the conversation for best relief corps in baseball.

Lopez, 29, is one of MLB’s hardest throwers, averaging a blistering 98.4 mph on his heater this year. He’s seen his previously strong command erode in 2023, walking a career-worst 12.6% of his opponents, but he’s also fanning a career-best 29.8% of hitters and boasting a career-high 14.1% swinging-strike rate. In 55 innings of relief, the former top prospect has a 3.93 ERA. Lopez is limiting hard contact at the best levels of his career as well and throwing his blazing fastball more often than ever before — generally at the expense of his third and fourth pitches (curveball, changeup). He’s primarily been a fastball/slider pitcher this year, and while the results have been a bit mixed, he’ll add a power arm capable of missing bats in droves to Terry Francona’s bullpen.

Moore, meanwhile, gives Francona a second lefty alongside Sam Hentges. The 34-year-old has found new life in his career since moving to a full-time relief role last year. He’s pitched 44 innings for the Angels in 2023, working to a 2.66 ERA with a career-high 28% strikeout rate and a very strong 6.9% walk rate.

Once the game’s consensus top pitching prospect, Moore impressed early on with the Rays before Tommy John surgery derailed his career. The left-hander never seemed to fully recover. After pitching to a 3.53 ERA from 2011-14, he missed most of the 2014-15 seasons recovering from that surgery, and posted a 5.26 ERA over his next 620 2/3 innings post-surgery.

Moore had a one-year stop in Japan along the way and pitched fairly well there, but it wasn’t until signing a minor league deal with Texas last year that he became a pitcher of note at the big league level again. Moore’s 1.95 ERA set the stage for a $7.55MM deal with the Angels this year, and he’s now logged a combined 2.21 ERA in his career’s second act as a late-inning reliever.

All in all, it’s a borderline unheard-of boon to a Major League pitching staff at this stage of a season — and all it will cost the Guardians is the collective $3.727MM that remain on the trio’s 2023 contracts. Each of Giolito, Moore and Lopez will be a free agent after the season, and the Guardians won’t receive any compensation if and when they enter free agency. They’re still a long shot to erase that five-game gap in the standings, particularly with the Twins still having series against the A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Mets and a now-depleted Angels team. But the Guardians were presented an opportunity to do everything they could to boost their slim playoff odds, and just like the Angels did one month ago, they took their shot.

The Best Fits For Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Dominic Leone, José Cisnero

By Darragh McDonald | August 30, 2023 at 9:42pm CDT

Yesterday saw a flurry of players placed on waivers, with the Angels making six players available to other clubs, while the Yankees, White Sox, Mets and Tigers also got in on the act. What those clubs all have in common is that their chances of competing this year are effectively gone, meaning that impending free agents that aren’t qualifying offer candidates have little use to them at this point. Since the trade deadline passed by a month ago, those clubs have no ability to exchange those players for any kind of younger talent, a player to be named later or even cash considerations. But by placing them on waivers, they could perhaps see another team put in a claim and take on the remainder of the salary commitments. For a claiming team, this is perhaps their best way of upgrading their roster after the deadline. As long as the player is acquired prior to September 1, they would be playoff eligible. That’s why all of this is happening now.

Before digging in, let’s clarify the process. This is different than the revocable kind of waivers that existed under the now-defunct August waiver trade system. These waivers are irrevocable, meaning that the players will be gone if any club puts in a claim. But the players have not been designated for assignment nor released. If they are not claimed, they can simply stay on the roster of their current club. Waiver priority will be in reverse order of the standings at the time of the claim and is not league-specific.

MLBTR is breaking it down by position, with this post focusing on the relievers. Let’s start with an overview of who is in that bucket.

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Matt Moore, Angels, LHP: $7.55MM salary, approximately $1.3M remaining

Moore, 34, had his ups and downs as a starter but he recently converted to relief work full-time and has been excellent since then. He had a 1.95 ERA with the Rangers last year and is at 2.30 with the Angels this year, coming into today’s action. In both seasons, he struck out more than 27% of opponents. His ground ball rate has fallen from last year, 43.9% to 34.3%, but he’s cut his walk rate from 12.5% to 7.1%. He has the highest salary of this group but has the best numbers and is the only lefty.

Reynaldo López, Angels, RHP: $3.625M salary, approximately $623K remaining

López, 29, was fairly mediocre as a starter but has been much better since his bullpen move, with a 2.76 ERA last year and 3.86 mark this year. He has bumped his strikeout rate this year from last year’s 24.8% rate to 30.7%, though his walk rate also jumped from 4.3% to 12.1%. He’s been the best of the righties on this list and his salary is about half of Moore’s.

Dominic Leone, Angels, RHP: $1.5MM salary, approximately $258K remaining

Leone, 31, has been fairly inconsistent in his career. He has three seasons with an ERA under 2.57 but also three above 6.32. This year, he’s in between at 4.64 while striking out 24% of opponents and walking 10.9%. He’s not having a dominant season but he had a 1.51 ERA as recently as 2021 and has the lightest salary of anyone on this list.

José Cisnero, Tigers, RHP: $2.2875MM salary, approximately $393K remaining

Cisnero, 34, had an incredible 1.08 ERA last year, though with some unsustainable elements in a .242 BABIP and 88.6% strand rate. This year, the wheel of fortune has spun him around the other way, with a .343 BABIP and 66% strand rate. That’s pushed his ERA to 5.36, a huge jump of more than four runs compared to last year. But his FIP, which takes those luck factors into account, went from 3.67 to 4.38. He has a 25.2% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate this year.

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Now that we’ve covered the process and the players available, who makes sense to put in a claim? We can start by crossing out all of the non-contending clubs. They have no need to pick up an impending free agent and his salary as they play out the string on a lost season.

Since the waiver order goes from the bottom of the standings towards the top, the fringe contenders will have a greater chance of a successful claim than teams at the top of the standings. Those teams will have to decide whether they want to add some salary to their books in order to obtain a marginal bullpen upgrade for the final month of the season.

The Padres have been on the edges of the playoff race all year but refused to sell off impending free agents like Blake Snell and Josh Hader and even added players like Garrett Cooper and Rich Hill. But they are still 7.5 games back of a Wild Card spot and their playoff odds are dwindling. The financials are also important as both Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts have them between the third and fourth CBT threshold. As a third-time payor, that means they are paying a 95% tax on any cash they take on. Given their place in the standings and their financial ledger, it seems like a long shot they would be involved here.

The Red Sox love to cycle through players at the back of their bullpen, frequently making small trades or minor league signings for depth. But they are now 6.5 games back of a playoff spot with the Blue Jays in between. Speaking of the Jays, they are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot but their bullpen is already quite strong. Their relievers have a collective ERA of 3.48, the fourth-best mark in the majors. Rosters expand in a couple of days but they have Chad Green rehabbing and nearing a return from last year’s Tommy John surgery.

The Marlins are three games back of a playoff spot and will certainly be motivated to gain ground, having not made the playoffs in a full season since 2003. Their bullpen has been shaky of late, especially with deadline acquisition David Robertson posting a 7.20 ERA since coming over from the Mets and getting bumped from the closer’s role. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the club is expected to put in a claim on at least one of the Angels’ relievers, though the typically-frugal club might be hesitant to take on some of the larger salaries listed above.

The Braves are last in the waiver priority list and already have one of the best bullpens in the league, making it less likely they will grab someone from this group. The Mariners have enough bullpen depth that they could flip Paul Sewald prior to the deadline and still thrive. The Phillies already have a strong bullpen and are in the second CBT tier and set to be a second-time payor.

As for the clubs that make good sense, there are plenty, as just about any contender could squeeze in a bullpen upgrade from a pure roster construction point of view. The Rangers, Astros, Cubs, Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks, Twins, Brewers, Orioles, Rays and Dodgers are each in postseason position or close to it, with another reliever being a sensible add.

The Rangers were leading their division for much of the year but have recently slid and are now in a cutthroat battle with the Astros and Mariners, with a few recent bullpen meltdowns part of the problem. They are already over the CBT but they have shown plenty of willingness to be aggressive in recent years. The Astros have a strong bullpen but it’s all right-handed, making Moore in particular a logical fit.

The Cubs love to build their bullpen via minor league deals and waiver claims, meaning they are surely intrigued. But Roster Resource and Cot’s have their CBT figure around $228MM, just a bit under the $233MM base threshold. Assuming those estimates are correct, they still have a bit of wiggle room, though those aren’t official. The Giants are one of the most creative clubs at patching together an improvised staff and could fit any of these guys into their budget if they are intrigued.

The Reds have a dynamic position player mix but a flimsy pitching staff that could use any help it can find. The Diamondbacks have a collective bullpen ERA of 4.71 that places them 25th in the majors. They added Sewald at the deadline but there’s room for further upgrades. The Twins’ bullpen is middle-of-the-pack and they are almost a lock for a playoff spot at this point, giving them incentive to further bolster the staff for October. The Brewers have a decent bullpen but have struggled to find second reliable lefty alongside Hoby Milner, which could perhaps lead to them claiming Moore.

The O’s have had a good relief group overall but it’s been a top-heavy unit headlined by Félix Bautista, who now has an injury of some sort to his UCL. The Rays have dealt with a mountain of injuries this year and aren’t shy about cycling through arms in their bullpen throughout the year. The Dodgers have been similarly bit by the injury bug, though these clubs are towards the back of the waiver line and will have to settle for the arms that the others pass on.

Angels Place Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk On Waivers

By Darragh McDonald | August 29, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

In a stunning development, the Angels have waved the white flag on their season, placing starter Lucas Giolito, relievers Matt Moore and Reynaldo López, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on waivers, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. Each player is an impending free agent and the Angels are apparently hoping to save some money by having some or all of them claimed off waivers while simultaneously allowing the players to join playoff contenders before the September 1 cutoff. Dominic Leone is also on the list, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

The Halos also placed starter Tyler Anderson on waivers last week, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter). He went unclaimed and elected to stick with the Halos. That no one took Anderson on is hardly a surprise. He’s only in the first season of a three-year, $39MM free agent contract that hasn’t gone well in year one. In 117 2/3 innings, the veteran southpaw has a 5.35 ERA.

The Angels have been making a strong push to contend in recent years, trying to put a competitive ballclub around their superstars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Part of their offseason upgrades included signing Moore and trading for Renfroe. The club hovered around contention through the trade deadline, deciding to hang onto Ohtani as well as making further additions, including Giolito, López and Grichuk.

Unfortunately, just about everything has gone wrong in the month of August, with the club having posted a record of 7-18 so far this month. As if that weren’t enough, Ohtani was diagnosed with a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow, which will prevent him from pitching again this season. Trout, meanwhile, attempted to return from his hamate surgery despite still being sore but was in too much pain to continue and landed right back on the IL.

This brutal month has pushed the Angels’ record to 63-69, which leaves them 11.5 games back of a playoff spot. Calculations from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give the club no hope of coming back, making this a lost season. All six of the players reportedly on waivers are impending free agents, meaning they have no real use to the Angels now. The only player of the bunch that would warrant a qualifying offer, allowing the Angels to recoup draft pick compensation, would be Giolito but he’s ineligible to receive one since he was traded midseason.

Since the trade deadline passed four weeks ago, there’s no way for the Angels to exchange any of those players for any kind of future value. But by putting them on waivers, they at least give themselves a chance of saving some money. Giolito is making $10.4MM this year, without about $1.9MM left to be paid out. For Renfroe, those figures are $11.9MM and $2.18MM. For Moore, $7.55M and $1.38MM. López, $3.625MM and $633K. Leone is $1.5MM and $275K. Grichuk’s case is slightly more complicated since he’s making $9.33MM this year as part of the extension he signed with the Blue Jays, though that club is eating $4.33MM of that while the Rockies also sent some cash considerations is to the Angels when trading them Grichuk and C.J. Cron. There’s about $1.71MM left to be paid out though a claiming team wouldn’t be responsible for all of it.

Beyond the strict cash savings, dumping some salary will have luxury tax implications for the Angels. Roster Resource calculates the club’s competitive balance tax figure at $234.4MM, just $1.4MM over the base threshold of $233MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them even farther over at $241.7MM. Both of those numbers are unofficial but highlight that the club is likely over the line by a small amount. The Angels are sure to make Ohtani a qualifying offer at season’s end and would receive draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. That compensation would be a pick just after the fourth round if they are a CBT payor but would move to just before the third round if they can dip below. That would roughly move the draft pick from around the 140th pick to the 75-80 range. Being a repeat payor also has escalating penalties, so avoiding paying the tax now could benefit the club if they decide to spend aggressively again next year.

In prior seasons, the July trade deadline was followed by a second deadline in August, though the latter portion required players to clear revocable waivers before being dealt. In 2019, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a single deadline, with no trades allowed at all after the first deadline. There’s no longer any way for a club to make deals at this part of the calendar but players are still playoff eligible if they join an organization prior to September 1. That means they may find interest on the waiver wire, so long as the claiming club is willing to take on the salary of the player in question.

The waiver order goes in reverse order of standings, regardless of league. The previous August waiver trade system used to be league-specific but that’s no longer in place. As of today, the Athletics would have first dibs on any of these players, followed by the Royals, then the Rockies and so on, simply going from worst record to best, regardless of league. Of course, there’s little reason for those clubs out of contention to claim an impending free agent and take on their salary commitments. The claims are more likely to be made by clubs still hoping to make the playoffs, with those with worse records having a better chance of a successful claim than those at the top of the standings.

This will lead to some interesting calculations in the days to come. Many contending clubs have already spent the majority of the money they had allotted for the season, but will have to decide on whether it’s worthwhile to suddenly add another $1.9MM just for one month of Giolito to help with a stretch run, for example. He’s been inconsistent since joining the Angels but had a 3.79 ERA for the White Sox prior to the deal and has a longer track record of success, with a 3.86 ERA from 2019 to 2022.

Moore made a transition to the bullpen in recent years with excellent results, with a 1.95 ERA last year and 2.30 ERA this year. López is fairly similar, having gone from a fairly mediocre starter earlier in his career to effective reliever, including a 3.86 ERA this year. Renfroe’s production has been up-and-down, with a .240/.300/.480 batting line in his career but a lesser .239/.300/.425 showing this year. Grichuk is having another season with his blend of power but a subpar walk rate, slashing .261/.317/.435. Leone has struggled with control but has generally posted above-average strikeout rates.

For the players, they likely aren’t thrilled about being subject to the whims of the waiver wire, especially the ones who only just became Angels recently. But they will at least likely find themselves moving from a sinking ship to a contender in the coming days, giving them a chance to compete in a playoff race and perhaps get into the postseason.

As for the clubs considering a claim, this will be their best chance to bolster their rosters for the final month of the season, now that the deadline is long gone. It’s also possible that a new precedent has been set for the end of August, as it’s not just the Angels that have taken this tack. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that Carlos Carrasco of the Mets, Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and José Cisnero of the Tigers have also been placed on waivers, while Erik Boland of Newsday first reported that Harrison Bader of the Yankees is also on the list.

Though the moves make some sense for the Angels, it’s undoubtedly a frustrating low point as the attempts to contend have repeatedly failed. They gave up several notable prospects to acquire some of these players just a few weeks ago and are now trying to give them away for little more than cost savings. They are now sure to finish the season without having made the playoffs since 2014 and could potentially watch Ohtani sign with a new club this winter.

Angels Designate Tucker Davidson For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | July 27, 2023 at 3:15pm CDT

The Angels have designated left-hander Tucker Davidson for assignment, per Sam Blum of The Athletic, between games of today’s double-header. His roster spot will go Reynaldo López, who has joined the team after being acquired alongside Lucas Giolito last night.

Davidson, 27, was a prospect of note when with Atlanta, with Baseball America considering him one of their top 30 prospects in five straight years starting in 2018. He got some brief stints with their big league club before coming over to the Angels in last year’s Raisel Iglesias trade. He made eight starts for the Halos after that deal last year but posted an ERA of 6.87 in those.

The southpaw was a candidate for the club’s rotation coming into this year but was nudged out by Griffin Canning. That pushed the out-of-options Davidson into the bullpen, where he’s thrown 31 2/3 innings over 18 appearances with a 6.54 ERA. It’s possible he has deserved better, as he’s struck out 20.9% of opponents, walked just 7.4% and kept the ball on the ground at a 47.1% clip. His 3.38 FIP and 3.95 SIERA are much nicer, with his .412 batting average on balls in play and 59% strand rate likely pushing some more runs across the board.

Deserved or not, the results haven’t been great and the Angels can’t option him to the minors, leading to Davidson’s designation for assignment. They will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. His results at the big league level haven’t been great but he’s not too far removed from being a notable starting pitching prospect and is still young and controllable through 2027. That could lead to some interest, perhaps from a rebuilding club with the ability to give him some rope to try to get back on track.

Looking back to the Iglesias trade, it now seems even more likely to go down as a mere salary dump for the Halos, who moved the three-plus years remaining on his deal. They got back Davidson and Jesse Chavez, with the Angels releasing the latter after less than a month.

Angels Acquire Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez

By Anthony Franco | July 26, 2023 at 11:06pm CDT

The Angels are pushing the chips in. The Halos swung a late-night trade for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox, the teams announced. Prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush are going back to Chicago.

Los Angeles declared themselves buyers this evening when they formally took Shohei Ohtani off the trade market. Once they committed to making a push in Ohtani’s final season of club control, there was little reason not to act boldly. They’ve done just that, surrendering two of their top prospects for the top rental starter available and a relief upgrade.

Ironically, Giolito and López both landed with the White Sox in the same trade nearly seven years ago. Both had debuted with the Nationals in 2016 before being included in the Adam Eaton package during that year’s Winter Meetings. They’ve spent the past six-plus seasons on Chicago’s South Side.

Giolito has developed into the more valuable of the duo. After a disastrous 2018 season, the Southern California native blossomed into an upper mid-rotation starter. He has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five years, including a 3.79 mark through 121 frames this season.

He has backed up that solid run prevention with above-average peripherals. Giolito is striking out 25.8% of opponents against an 8.3% walk rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 11.9% of his offerings. It’s a third consecutive season in which he’s been above-average across the board.

Giolito hasn’t quite developed into the ace it seemed he might become when he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting in 2019-20. His average fastball speed is down a tick from those peak seasons, and he’s lost a few whiffs on each of his offerings. Still, the 29-year-old is a clear playoff caliber starter. He averages just under six innings per start while holding opponents to a .232/.301/.430 batting line. Giolito is effective against hitters of either handedness and has essentially avoided any major injuries in his MLB career.

That kind of durability and effectiveness should be a major boost to a Halos’ rotation that entered play Wednesday ranked 20th in the majors in ERA. Ohtani is the one pitcher allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine on the season. Reid Detmers has a 4.38 ERA but a strikeout rate north of 29% that suggests he fits well in the middle of a rotation. Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning have been fine back-end arms. Tyler Anderson has underperformed in the first season of a three-year deal, working to a 5.18 ERA. He slots sixth in the Halos’ six-man starting staff, while Giolito’s addition should firmly push Jaime Barria into long relief if the rest of the group stays healthy.

Barria has been more effective out of the bullpen than when pressed into rotation work. Giolito’s acquisition indirectly upgrades the relief corps in that regard, while the addition of López helps the bullpen in a more straightforward way.

The 29-year-old righty moved to relief for good by the start of the 2022 season. He was excellent in that role last year, pitching to a 2.76 ERA across 65 1/3 frames. It has been more of a mixed bag in 2023. López carries a 4.29 ERA in 42 innings. His walks have jumped from a minuscule 4.3% clip last year to a concerning 12.4% rate.

However, the uptick in free passes has been paired with a jump in whiffs. López has punched out a career-best 29.2% of batters faced. He’s picking up swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings while averaging 98.3 MPH on his heater and 87.9 MPH on the slider. López is a high-octane arm to pair with Matt Moore as setup options in front of closer Carlos Estévez. The Halos could look for additional ways of bolstering the middle innings mix between now and the August 1 trade deadline.

Both Giolito and López are firmly win-now pieces. Each is an impending free agent. Giolito is arguably the top non-Ohtani starter who’ll hit the open market. He’s on his way to exceeding nine figures. That always made it likely the White Sox — whose franchise-record expenditure is the $75MM Andrew Benintendi pact — would not re-sign him.

A midseason deal, while not unexpected, is a nice boost to Giolito’s eventual earning power. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a qualifying offer. Giolito would obviously have received one had the Sox retained him past the deadline, but he’ll now hit the open market without a signing team needing to forfeit draft capital.

The more immediate benefit, of course, is that both pitchers will get a chance to compete for a postseason spot. The Halos are four games out in the Wild Card race and seven back in the AL West. They’re clearly pushing the chips in for this season and figure to continue to be aggressive in the next few days. Adding corner infield help with Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury on the shelf and Jared Walsh struggling enough to be optioned to Triple-A makes plenty of sense; to that end, the Halos have reportedly been in touch with the Nationals regarding third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

As part of that all-in mentality, the Angels relinquished a pair of their most talented prospects. Quero is one of the game’s top minor league backstops. The switch-hitter reached Double-A by his 20th birthday and is holding his own in a pitcher-friendly setting. Over 317 plate appearances, Quero owns a .245/.385/.332 batting line. He’s only hit three home runs but is walking at a massive 17% clip while striking out just 16.7% of the time.

That kind of plate discipline is exceptionally rare for a hitter so young. The Cuban-born backstop is the sport’s #61 overall prospect at FanGraphs and 85th at Baseball America. Scouting reports predictably rave about his advanced offensive skills and suggest he has a good chance to be a regular in the long term.

The Halos already have a potential catcher of the future in Logan O’Hoppe. Acquired from the Phillies last summer, O’Hoppe has been limited to 21 big league contests because of a labrum tear in his shoulder. He’s controllable for five seasons beyond this one, though, perhaps making Quero a little more expendable to the organization.

Chicago had no such long-term answer behind the dish. Yasmani Grandal is headed to free agency on the heels of a fine but unexceptional year. It’s probably unreasonable to expect Quero to immediately succeed Grandal as the #1 backstop next season, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he could reach the majors at some point in 2024. That upper minors proximity is surely appealing to a Chicago team reloading for next year.

Bush, a 23-year-old southpaw, was also at Double-A. A second-round pick out of St. Mary’s in 2021, he ranked ninth among Angels’ prospects in Eric Longenhagen’s recent organizational rankings at FanGraphs. Both Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (on Twitter) suggest the 6’6″ hurler has a chance to stick as a starter and praise his slider, though Longenhagen raises concerns about his low-90s fastball. Bush has been a little homer-prone in his first six Double-A starts but is striking out nearly 30% of opponents there.

It’s a strong return for a pair of impending free agents, with Quero the clear headliner. Yet it’s understandable the Angels would part with those players (particularly with O’Hoppe in the fold) to make a push this season. Their aggressiveness extends beyond the prospect capital, as the trade officially pushed them into luxury tax territory.

The Halos were right around the $233MM competitive balance tax threshold before the move. They’re taking on what remains of the respective $10.4MM and $3.625MM arbitration salaries for Giolito and López. That’s around $3.75MM on Giolito and $1.31MM on López. That’ll push their estimated CBT figure to around $238MM pending future additions.

It’s clear owner Arte Moreno will sign off on paying the tax for the first time. The financial penalties of doing so are rather minimal. As a first-time payor, they’ll pay a 20% tax on expenditures between $233MM and $253MM. The tax money they’re taking on with today’s trade is just over $1MM, a marginal amount in comparison to the team’s overall spending.

More notably, surpassing the CBT reduces the draft compensation they’d receive if they lose a qualified free agent. Teams that pay the luxury tax receive a compensation pick after the fourth round if a player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere. Clubs that stay below the threshold get a compensatory choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round.

Ohtani will obviously reject a QO. If the Angels don’t re-sign him, going past the CBT means they’re moving the draft compensation back a couple rounds. That’s a risk worth taking to maximize the chances of getting to the playoffs in Ohtani’s final season of arbitration. The Angels are all-in, and while this’ll probably be their biggest move of deadline season, there’s no reason to think it’s their last.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Angels and White Sox were finalizing a trade of Giolito and López for Quero and Bush.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans

By Anthony Franco | July 10, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.

Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.

Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.

Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.

The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.

Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.

The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.

Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.

Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.

One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.

While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.

Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.

Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.

There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.

White Sox Reportedly Only Willing To Trade Rental Players

By Darragh McDonald | June 16, 2023 at 12:05pm CDT

The White Sox are potentially lined up to be sellers at the deadline, though exactly how much they commit to that task remains to be seen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that, as of right now, they might only be willing to move impending free agents. Those plans could always change as discussions take place, but it’s a noteworthy stance at the moment. The trade deadline is August 1.

At this point, it’s not even necessarily a lock that the White Sox will be sellers at all. Despite their poor 30-40 record, they are only 5.5 games back of the Twins in the weak American League Central division. But the Wild Card race is much stronger, putting them 9.5 games out of a spot there.

A hot streak could get them right back in the divisional race but those have been hard to come by this season and the front office needs to at least consider the possibility that they stay on the outside looking in. Like all clubs, the players on the roster have varied contractual situations that affect the trade calculus. It seems that the club is currently leaning towards trading players on expiring contracts but keeping players with more control in order to take another shot at contending next year.

Even by limiting themselves to a softer sell, they would still have plenty of players to discuss in trade talks. Lucas Giolito, Mike Clevinger, Yasmani Grandal, Elvis Andrus, Reynaldo López and Keynan Middleton are all set to reach free agency this winter and would be the club’s best trade chips. Clevinger’s deal has a mutual option for 2024 but those are rarely picked up by both parties.

Giolito would be one of the top names on the market this summer if he were available, having established himself as a reliable and effective starter in recent years. In each season from 2019 to 2021, he had an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. That figure jumped to 4.90 last year, but that coincided with his batting average on balls in play jumping to .340, well above any of his previous seasons. This year, he’s dropped his ERA right back down to his norm as he’s at 3.54 through 14 starts.

Now 28 years old, Giolito has gone year-to-year in arbitration. He’s now in his third and final arb year, making $10.4MM. By the time the deadline rolls around, there will be roughly $3.5MM left to be paid out.

Just about every contender will be looking to bolster their rotation for the final months of the season and the playoffs, which should give Giolito widespread interest. Even teams on the lower end of the spending spectrum could fit that salary figure onto their books, meaning few clubs would be eliminated from the list of logical suitors. That makes Giolito the White Sox’ best chance at recouping some future value from what could end up being a disappointing season.

Some of those other names may have some appeal as well. Clevinger has a 3.88 ERA but with subpar peripherals, striking out 19.3% of opponents while walking 9.5%. A .275 batting average on balls in play and 81.2% strand rate are helping him out, with his 4.89 FIP and 5.07 SIERA less optimistic. He’s making a salary of $8MM this year but has a $4MM buyout on his mutual option. He has a bit of an uncertain health outlook at the moment, as he was removed from his most recent start due to biceps soreness. It seems there’s no structural damage, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, but he might still land on the injured list.

Grandal struggled last year but is having a decent bounce back, hitting .271/.330/.410 so far this year for a wRC+ of 106. Trading catchers at midseason can be tricky since they would then have to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. However, Grandal is 34 years old and hits well enough that it could make sense for him to factor into a club’s designated hitter mix, especially since he’s a switch-hitter. The final year of his four-year deal pays him $18.25MM annually.

Andrus is also an impending free agent but his interest will surely be muted as he’s hitting .196/.277/.247 this year. López has a 5.10 ERA but his 28.3% strikeout rate will surely lead to some intrigue. Middleton’s 1.93 ERA is buoyed by an unsustainable 96.3% strand rate but he is striking out 31.9% of opponents and getting grounders at a 54.5% clip. All three of these players are making modest salaries of less than $4MM this year.

There are also a couple of borderline cases who could be considered rentals. The Sox have an $18MM option on Lance Lynn for next year with a $1MM buyout. His 6.75 ERA this year makes it less likely that gets picked up but it also diminishes his trade appeal. Joe Kelly is in a somewhat similar situation as he can be kept around for 2024 via a $9.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout. He has a 4.57 ERA but strong peripherals and a 53.7% strand rate, leading to a 2.86 FIP and 2.80 SIERA.

The club also has a $15MM option on Liam Hendriks, though with a $15MM buyout. The only difference is that triggering the buyout would allow them to spread the payment out over 10 years instead of just in 2024. He’s been floated as a trade candidate this summer but he’s currently on the injured list due to inflammation in his pitching elbow. Given the injury, the PR hit of trading him away after his feel-good return from cancer and that buyout, it seems likely that he’s with the Sox again next year.

If the Sox ultimately stick to their plan of only trading rentals, that would mean that other speculative trade candidates are off the table. Many observers have wondered if the club would consider moving shortstop Tim Anderson, who can be retained for 2024 via a $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Trading him now would be a difficult decision because it would hurt the club’s chances of returning to contention in 2024 and the return would surely be diminished since he’s hitting just .251/.290/.296 this year. Instead of trading him when his value is at a low ebb, there would be sense in the club hanging onto him and hoping for a return to form next year.

Dylan Cease has also been suggested as a trade candidate but that would require the club to really commit to a lengthier rebuild. He still has two more passes through arbitration to go and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2025. His ERA has almost doubled from last year’s 2.20 to this year’s 4.31 figure, but he’s still getting strikeouts at an above-average 26.2% rate. They would surely get a huge haul for him if they decided to move him, but it doesn’t seem as though that’s on the table right now.

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