Latest On Alex Gordon, Royals
While it seemed not long ago that the Royals’ pursuit of Alex Gordon would not be fruitful, Gordon himself suggested there was still hope of a reunion. And it appears now there could be renewed vitality in talks between the sides. Here’s the latest:
- Among other clubs around the league, there is an “increasingly strong sentiment” that Gordon could be heading back to K.C., Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. In fact, something could come together soon, Passan suggests. There had reportedly been a wide gulf between the sides in terms of years and dollars. If a deal is indeed struck, it will obviously be fascinating to see whether one side budged from its position or whether common ground was struck.
- The Royals “still would love” to bring back their homegrown star, Jon Heyman tweeted last night. But Kansas City is still keeping its options open, of course. That includes a variety of other free agents, including Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, Dexter Fowler, and David Murphy, according to the report.
Orioles, Mets Interested In Antonio Bastardo
8:13pm: The Mets do indeed like Bastardo, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post, but the team isn’t willing to give him the three-year deal that he has been seeking on the open market this winter. The Mets are prepared to wait out the market for the remaining relievers, according to Puma.
8:01am: The Orioles and Mets are among the clubs holding discussions with free agent southpaw Antonio Bastardo, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Bastardo, 30, spent last year with the Pirates.
Bastardo joins Tyler Clippard as the only two unsigned relievers left on MLBTR’s pre-winter list of the top fifty free agents. In that post, Tim Dierkes predicted that he could command a three-year contract with a $15MM guarantee, though he could be aiming for more after fellow lefty Tony Sipp landed an $18MM promise earlier in the offseason.
While his bottom-line run prevention numbers have wavered from year to year, Bastardo has been rather consistent in terms of peripherals. For his career, the veteran has posted 11.0 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9, while generating a meager 28.7% groundball rate. He has, however, kept the long ball in check, allowing only a 7.0% HR/FB rate and 0.80 HR/9 dating back to his rookie season of 2009.
Those numbers support his overall 3.45 ERA. Bastardo has carried a 3.20 SIERA to go with a 3.33 FIP, both of which suggest that he may have been a bit unlucky. On the other hand, xFIP only values his overall contributions at a 3.87 ERA equivalency.
That last metric has not been enamored of Bastardo’s work, in particular, over the past three years. He has been particularly fortunate in terms of limiting home runs in that span, with a HR/FB rate hovering below 5%. And last year, there was some cause to question the sub-3.00, as Bastardo benefited from a .246 BABIP despite allowing a career-high 32.2% hard contact rate.
But the southpaw also generated a 14.6% swinging-strike rate in his sole season in Pittsburgh, good for the second-best mark of his career. And his velocity actually trended up to 92.7 mph on the season.
Importantly, too, Bastardo recovered from a tough start with a nice run to end the year. And while he was even better against opposing lefties, he also limited right-handed hitters to a .207/.311/.315 batting line. That lines up with his career numbers, and will surely give teams comfort that he’ll be a flexible setup piece.
It isn’t surprising to hear that Baltimore and New York are among the suitors for Bastardo, but neither of these particular organizations seem to be in particular need of a lefty pen arm. The O’s top southpaw (outside of closer Zach Britton) is Brian Matusz, who has turned in solid results over the past three years. And the Mets already re-signed Jerry Blevins to go with Sean Gilmartin.
But particularly if one views Bastardo as a late-inning option who is nearly as useful against righties as lefties, it’s easy to see him drawing wide interest. (The same holds true, it’s worth noting, of Clippard.) Even at this late stage of the winter, there figure to be more clubs that will be involved as his market develops.
Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard File Defamation Lawsuits Against Al Jazeera
6:25pm: In a full column, Salisbury relays Howard’s official statement on the matter: “Today I authorized my attorneys to file suit against Al Jazeera and its reporters. Their irresponsible reporting forced me to take this action to protect my name and to fight back against the spreading of these lies. I will have no further comment, as the filing itself contains all I need to say.”
6:08pm: John Ourand of Sports Business Journal has a copy of Zimmerman’s suit against Al Jazeera (PDF link from Ourand, on Twitter).
5:59pm: According to a report from Reuters (Twitter link) and a second report from Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (also on Twitter), Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman and Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard have filed lawsuits against the Al Jazeera media outlet for the PED allegations against each player in Al Jazeera’s recent documentary, The Dark Side. The controversial documentary was released in late December, although within hours of its release, the documentary’s main witness, Charlie Sly, told ESPN that the comments he made regarding Zimmerman and Howard were “absolutely false and incorrect,” adding that the comments he made to British hurdler Liam Collins, who went undercover for the film, were his attempt to “pull one over on Collins to see if he had any idea of what he was talking about.”
Per the Washington Post’s Barry Svrluga (links to Svrluga on Twitter), Zimmerman’s lawsuit states the following: “Mr. Zimmerman has never taken Delta 2, human growth hormone, or any other steroid or other performance-enhancing substance banned by the MLB.” The Al Jazeera film in question alleges that Zimmerman did take Delta-2, which is both specifically designated to evade drug tests and included on Major League Baseball’s list of banned substances. At the time the documentary was published, attorney William Burck of Emmanuel Quinn, who represents both Zimmerman and Howard, issued the following statement:
“It’s inexcusable and irresponsible that Al Jazeera would provide a platform and broadcast outright lies about Mr. Howard and Mr. Zimmerman. The extraordinarily reckless claims made against our clients in this report are completely false and rely on a source who has already recanted his claims. We will go to court to hold Al Jazeera and other responsible parties accountable for smearing our clients’ good names.”
NFL star Peyton Manning, who is also the subject of Al Jazeera allegations, could conceivably file a suit as well, as could fellow NFL players Julius Peppers, Mike Neal and James Harrison, each of whom is connected to Delta-2 usage in the film as well. MLBTR’s sister site, Pro Football Rumors, has been tracking the football implications of the Al Jazeera documentary for those who are interested in the latest developments on the NFL side of the equation.
Stewart: D’Backs Won’t Sacrifice Another Draft Pick
After giving up the 13th overall pick in this summer’s draft to sign Zack Greinke, the Diamondbacks are not interested in parting with another choice, GM Dave Stewart tells MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. That would appear to take Arizona out of the running for any of the remaining free agents who would require draft picks to sign since they rejected qualifying offers earlier at the outset of the offseason.
The D’Backs’ top remaining selection is a Competitive Balance Round A choice that currently rates as the 37th overall choice, though that number will change as QO-bound free agents pick their destinations. “We’re not going to give up the pick,” Stewart said. “It’s just tough after we’ve already given up our first pick. To give up our top two picks, that would be difficult for us to do.”
That stance would appear to put a damper on a report earlier today suggesting that the club was still in talks with infielder Howie Kendrick, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers. Stewart said there was appeal to adding a veteran infielder, “only just for the security of it,” but noted that the team still feels good about what it well get out of its younger position players. Notably, though he made clear that the team has no inclination to punt a pick, he did not rule out other avenues to acquiring an established player from that mold.
While it is not surprising to hear that the club values the draft pick, it is frankly somewhat surprising to hear Stewart rule out its sacrifice so conclusively. After all, that choice is far less valuable than the one already parted with. And while any other free agent would likely pale in comparison to Greinke in terms of expectations, Arizona has already sought to push up its competitiveness timetable by signing him and giving up a big haul for fellow righty Shelby Miller. There’s always a place to draw a line, of course, but this does seem like a somewhat curious place to make a firm stand.
It’s worth noting, in that regard, that this is the same team that arguably did not maximize its draft and international spending capacity last year. Arizona also traded its first-round choices from 2014 (Touki Toussaint) and 2015 (Dansby Swanson) in recent months. Of course, the organization has gone against the grain in numerous ways, and seen many of its decisions called into question, yet certainly looks to be in a stronger overall position than many would have anticipated this time last year.
Stewart went on to add that the Snakes are still looking for relievers, though he said there are some intriguing young in-house options that could compete for a spot. The Diamondbacks have been connected to a variety of names in trade scenarios, but it appears that the current asking prices are too high. “I can tell you it will be difficult to do it by a trade,” Stewart said. “So we’re going to look through the free-agent market and see what else is left. I think that’s the way it’s going to have to happen if we’re going to do it at all.”
Dodgers Sign Scott Kazmir
The Dodgers announced on Wednesday that they have signed left-hander Scott Kazmir to a three-year contract. The contract will reportedly guarantee Kazmir a total of $48MM, but he also obtains an opt-out clause after the first season, and there are reportedly deferrals in the deal. Kazmir is said to receive a $5MM signing bonus and a $3MM salary in 2016, with annual payments of $8MM in each of the next five seasons (or, in the case of an opt out, a second payment of $8MM next year).
Kazmir, a client of The Legacy Agency, will fill a void in the Dodgers’ rotation and give them yet another lefty starter to pair with Clayton Kershaw, Brett Anderson, Alex Wood and, if healthy, Hyun-jin Ryu, creating the potential for an entirely left-handed starting five.
In Kazmir, the Dodgers will secure some rotation stability that has eluded them to this point in the offseason. Los Angeles aggressively pursued a reunion with 2015 Cy Young runner-up Zack Greinke but lost out on their co-ace to an eleventh-hour push from the division-rival Diamondbacks. When that deal fell through, L.A. made a strong push for Hisashi Iwakuma and agreed to terms at three years and $45MM, but concerns about his physical prompted the Dodgers to try to restructure the deal. With that hefty guarantee no longer on the table, Iwakuma returned to Seattle on a one-year deal with a pair of vesting options, sending the Dodgers back to the drawing board.
Kazmir, 32 next month, was one of the top remaining starters on the market and should provide the Dodgers with a sizable upgrade over their internal options to round out the rotation. Formerly one of the game’s most promising young pitchers, Kazmir’s career went south in a hurry last decade due to myriad injuries, and he was absent from Major League Baseball entirely from 2011-12 with the exception of 1 2/3 innings with the Angels. However, Kazmir reinvented himself on the independent circuit and emerged with the Indians in 2013 to throw 158 quality innings. That prompted a two-year deal with Oakland, which he completed in 2015 (as a member of the Astros, following a trade).
Since returning to the Majors, Kazmir has compiled a 3.54 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of roughly 43 percent. He’s faded down the stretch somewhat in each of the past two seasons but delivered an overall strong body of work in that time, positioning himself for a sizable commitment on the open market. Kazmir reportedly had multiple three-year offers in the range of $13MM annually, but he was able to secure not only a larger annual value but an opt-out clause. While he was said to be hoping for four guaranteed years, the opt-out clause could potentially make this contract more valuable than a four-year pact anyhow, as Kazmir will now have the opportunity to enter the 2016-17 market as perhaps the second-best starter available, trailing Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg. If, on the other hand, injuries sideline him or he struggles in his first-ever taste of the National League, Kazmir can still collect a hefty guarantee for the 2016-17 seasons. From the Dodgers’ vantage point, the silver lining in the event of an opt-out after just one season would be compensation in the form of a 2017 draft pick, assuming Kazmir rejects a qualifying offer.
Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times reported the guarantee (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports was the first to report the opt-out clause (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that Kazmir’s salaries would be deferred evenly over a six-year term.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Orioles Sign Hyun-soo Kim
DEC. 30: Sung Min Kim of River Ave. Blues reports (via Twitter) that Kim will earn $2.8MM in 2016 and $4.2MM in 2017. His contract allows him to become a free agent upon completion (as opposed to arbitration eligibility) and also stipulates that he cannot be assigned to the minor leagues.
DEC. 23: Baltimore has announced the signing.
DEC. 16: The Orioles have agreed to sign Korean outfielder Hyun-soo Kim, Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun tweets. The deal, worth $7MM over two years (link), is pending a medical review. Kim, he adds (link), is on his way to Baltimore from Korea tonight.
Kim, who’ll soon turn 28, just reached free agent eligibility after nine seasons with the KBO’s Doosan Bears. He reportedly received offers from multiple MLB clubs, though Baltimore was the first club known to make an offer. The Orioles have long been said to be looking for one or more outfielders, and the $7MM commitment suggests that Kim will slot into at least a semi-regular role. Baltimore utilized a variety of platoon options in the corner last year, but Kim would “likely” feature in left if signed, Connolly said earlier this week.
Kim has put up a big .318/.406/.488 slash in the offensively robust KBO, and last year had his best-ever showing. Not only did he slash .326/.438/.541, but Kim also banged a career-best 28 home runs. But Kim’s real calling card is in the on-base arena. Unlike some other KBO players who have moved over to MLB (or have shown interest in doing so), Kim is a master of plate discipline. Last year, he struck out only 63 times while drawing 101 free passes.
At $3.5MM per season, Kim will be earning less than many had expected him to earlier this offseason. At one point,Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports suggested that Kim could get paid “toward the top of the next tier of corner outfielders” behind the four major free agents. Kim’s market didn’t unfold quite that way, but he did get a decent payday from Baltimore. If Kim succeeds over the next two seasons, he could see a salary increase as he tries the market again before his 30th birthday.
Latest On Yoenis Cespedes’ Market
DEC. 30: Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that after checking around with the Orioles in light of their connection to Cespedes, he doesn’t get the sense that any deal is close. Kubatko writes that a team source indicated no chance of the Orioles going near MLBTR’s projected $140MM price tag on Cespedes, and another source told Kubatko that a contract proposal hasn’t even been presented to ownership at this time. Pitching remains the Orioles’ primary focus at this time, according to Kubatko.
DEC. 29: The Orioles and White Sox are emerging as the favorites to land outfielder Yoenis Cespedes “for now,” reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). According to Sanchez, the Giants and Angels are also “in the mix,” and the Rangers are monitoring the situation (though Sanchez’s implication seems to be that they’re relatively far removed from a serious pursuit).
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports linked the ChiSox to Cespedes earlier this morning while reporting that the club was actively seeking an outfield upgrade. Per Rosenthal, longtime division rival Alex Gordon is still on the Sox’ radar as well as the team searches for a superior corner option — presumably, an upgrade over Avisail Garcia. Either Garcia or Melky Cabrera would be logical candidates to lose playing time in the event of an outfield acquisition for the Sox, though the team could try to find a taker for some of Adam LaRoche‘s contract and move Cabrera to DH instead. Cabrera, though, batted a solid .288/.330/.449 with 11 homers from June 1 through season’s end after initially struggling with his new team in 2015, so he’s probably still in the team’s plans. (The $29MM owed to him from 2016-17 undoubtedly plays a role in that picture as well.)
The Orioles have a clear need for additional help in the outfield corners, as Adam Jones currently projects to be flanked MLB newcomer Hyun-soo Kim and Nolan Reimold. While Kim, one of the top hitters in the Korea Baseball Organization over the past several years, could emerge as a viable everyday option, he’s untested and figures to have some form of adjustment period even if he does prove to be a quality Major Leaguer. Adding Cespedes to the mix would lessen the need for immediate production from Kim, who could perhaps be eased into MLB a bit more, as countryman Jung Ho Kang was with the Pirates in 2015.
For Baltimore, adding Cespedes would unquestionably require a franchise-record contract (though the same could be said of the White Sox), as Jones’ six-year, $85.5MM deal is the largest in club history at this time. Baltimore has made a strong effort to retain slugger Chris Davis this offseason, reportedly offering $150MM over a seven-year term. Cespedes’ ultimate price tag could approach that point, though many predictions, including MLBTR’s six-year, $140MM projection from early November, have him falling shy of that mark. An earnest pursuit of Cespedes would at the very least clash with previous reports pertaining to the Orioles, which indicated that the team was only interested in spending this type of money on Davis and would not re-allocate the funds to another top-tier free agent were Davis to ultimately sign elsewhere. While the extent of their willingness to spend may be somewhat uncertain,it seems unlikely that the Orioles would be able to sign both Cespedes and Davis. In other words, if Baltimore does indeed bring Cespedes into the fold, it would probably spell the end of Davis’ tenure with the Birds. Should that prove to be the case, the Orioles can deploy trade acquisition Mark Trumbo at first base in 2016, giving the club a wealth of right-handed pop between Cespedes, Trumbo, Jones and Manny Machado.
The Angels have long been connected to corner outfield upgrades, and GM Billy Eppler has said he believes owner Arte Moreno will approve a luxury tax penalty for the right player. The rest of the team’s moves this winter, however, would seem to indicate a strong preference to remain underneath that $189MM barrier, however, as the additions of free agents Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry as well as trade pickups Yunel Escobar and Andrelton Simmons have all been of the lower-cost variety (financially speaking).
As for the Giants, they’ve been more than willing to spend this offseason, adding both Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto to their rotation after a strong pursuit of Zack Greinke came up short and giving Brandon Crawford a $75MM extension. The three players received a combined $285MM in guaranteed money from the Giants, and GM Bobby Evans recently said on MLB Network Radio that he still hopes to add a left fielder, thereby shifting Gregor Blanco into a valuable fourth outfield role. Evans emphasized the trade market in that interview, though one wouldn’t expect a GM to openly broadcast his desire to spend top dollar on a free-agent upgrade, either.
Nationals To Sign Stephen Drew
The Nationals have struck a deal to sign infielder Stephen Drew, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter links). Drew will reportedly receive a $3MM guarantee and can earn up to $1.25MM via incentives in the contract which max out at 130 games played.
This move rates as something of a surprise, but makes sense upon close inspection. Washington has already agreed to sign Daniel Murphy, likely to play second base, and can utilize Anthony Rendon at third. But the shortstop position remains in some flux. Danny Espinosa looks to sit atop the depth chart, but he is not an optimal everyday player. Top position player prospect Trea Turner is also a viable potential option, though it would arguably be foolish to utilize him in a part-time role.
Drew will presumably get a decent bit of action at shortstop against right-handed pitching. While Espinosa is a switch hitter, he struggles from the left side. The left-handed-hitting Drew, on the other hand, has a .765 career OPS against right-handed pitching, while posting a mark precisely one hundred points lower when facing southpaws. He’ll also likely provide a rest at times for Rendon and Murphy, or allow the latter to slide in at first base if the team chooses to rest the oft-injured Ryan Zimmerman against righties (though Clint Robinson also could see time in that role).
As Heyman notes, then-Diamondbacks scouting director and current Nationals GM Mike Rizzo selected Drew in the first-round back in 2004, so there’s a history. At the time, and at times since, there has been hope that Drew would settle in as a top-quality regular. That hasn’t quite happened, despite several good seasons, but Drew still brings some skills to the table.
Most notably, Drew delivers plenty of pop for a middle infielder. He swatted 17 home runs last year in just 428 plate appearances and finished with a strong .180 ISO. Reaching base consistently, though, has been a challenge. Drew ended 2015 with a .201/.271/.381 batting line.
There were some potential positives to be found — namely, a 16.6% strikeout rate that was far lower than recent years and a .201 BABIP that could point to some bad luck. But Drew’s anemic output at the plate over the last two years has also featured a significant fall-off in his line-drive percentage (15.7% last year) and hard-hit rate (21.3% in 2015).
Drew doesn’t have to hit all that much to function as a utility option, though, especially if he’s largely limited to facing right-handed pitching. He’s spent most of his career at shortstop, drawing mostly positive ratings in recent seasons. Neither UZR nor DRS has been particularly enamored of his work at second over the past two years, but at worst he’s been serviceable there.
From a market perspective, a $3MM guarantee isn’t all that much these days, even for an extra infielder. Earlier this winter, for example, Cliff Pennington got $3.75MM over two years from the Angels earlier this winter and Mike Aviles landed $2MM in a one-year pact with the Tigers. And last year, the Rockies gave Daniel Descalso a $3.6MM guarantee on a two-year term.
It’s probably worth noting, too, that this move makes it all but official that Ian Desmond won’t be back in D.C. That was clearly where things were headed anyway, but there had always seemed to be at least some possibility of a reunion in the event that Desmond was forced to settle for a pillow contract. With Drew on the books, though, there wouldn’t be room for the long-time Nats fixture to come back (barring a trade).
Athletics Sign Henderson Alvarez
6:27pm: Heyman tweets that Alvarez will receive $100K for making his 12th start and another $100K for making his 15th start. He will receive $150K for his 18th start, $200K for his 21st start, $300K for his 24th start, $350K for his 26th start and $400K upon making his 28th start.
5:56pm: The Athletics have announced the signing of right-hander Henderson Alvarez to a one-year deal. Previous reports had indicated that the deal was close, with Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan and SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo all contributing details. Alvarez reportedly will receive a $4.25MM guarantee and can earn up to $1.6MM worth of incentives on his one-year deal as well. Alvarez, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, is under club control through the 2017 season via arbitration after being somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Marlins earlier this winter.
The 25-year-old Alvarez missed most of the 2015 season due to shoulder problems that ultimately required season-ending surgery in July, and that was enough for Miami to cut him loose rather than risk paying him roughly $4MM (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection) and watching him struggle through similar injury problems in 2016. This past season, Alvarez was the Marlins’ Opening Day starter but totaled just 22 1/3 innings of 6.45 ERA ball and didn’t pitch after May 22. However, he reportedly won’t be ready for the start of the season (though he could return within the first month of the ’16 campaign).
However, Alvarez was outstanding for the Marlins in 2014, when he totaled 187 innings with a 2.65 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 53.8 percent ground-ball rate. Though Alvarez has never been one to miss many bats, he possesses pristine control and has kept the ball on the ground at a 55 percent clip in his big league career to date. As many as 10 teams reportedly showed interest in Alvarez before he signed with the A’s.
Assuming his shoulder is healthy, Alvarez will slot into the Oakland rotation behind Sonny Gray, alongside right-hander Jesse Hahn and lefty Rich Hill (who was reportedly promised a rotation spot when signing his one-year deal with the A’s). Oakland has a deep crop of rotation candidates to fill out the final spot, including Chris Bassitt, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, Aaron Brooks and Jarrod Parker. Top prospect Sean Manaea, acquired in the Ben Zobrist trade with Kansas City, is a former first-round pick that isn’t too far off either, having reached the Double-A level and thrown 49 2/3 innings there this past season. With the exception of Hill, all of the names listed are controlled beyond the 2016 season, giving the A’s a wide variety of options both in terms of their rotation and in trade scenarios.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees Acquire Aroldis Chapman
After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.
Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, but he comes with significant off-field baggage in the form of domestic violence allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by the league, and there’s a very real chance that he’ll serve some form of suspension from commissioner Rob Manfred under the league’s newly implemented domestic violence policy. What type of suspension is up to Manfred, though as many have pointed out, there are service time implications in any suspension that could impact Chapman’s free agency; if Chapman misses more than 45 days of the regular season due to suspension, he’ll fall shy of reaching six years of Major League service, which would prevent him from becoming a free agent next winter. A suspension would also lessen the financial commitment for Chapman in 2016; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz currently projects the lefty to earn $12.9MM in 2016 after earning $8.05MM in 2015.
Strictly looking at Chapman’s on-field resumé, the results are astounding. In 2015, he worked to a 1.63 ERA with 15.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent ground-ball rate. Over the past four seasons in Cincinnati, the Cuban-born phenom has delivered an exceptional 1.90 ERA while averaging 16.1 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings to go along with an average of 36 saves per season. Chapman is known for his blistering fastball; the left-hander averaged 100.3 mph on his heater in 2014 and followed that up with a similarly incredulous 99.5 mph average this past season. His addition could free the Yankees to trade Miller or Betances, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the team’s initial plan is to keep all three in an effort to effectively shorten games to six-inning affairs (Twitter link). That’s a bit hyperbolic in nature, of course, but probably not as much as skeptics might think; as MLB.com’s Andrew Simon points out (on Twitter), the Yankees now possess the pitchers with the three highest strikeout percentages in all of baseball from 2014-15 in Chapman (46.3 percent), Miller (41.6 percent) and Betances (39.5 percent).
That trio will be important for a Yankees team that is rife with uncertainty in the rotation. The club’s starting five currently projects as Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia. (Ivan Nova could be in the mix as well, though he is reportedly being shopped.) Tanaka pitched through a small tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow in 2015, while Pineda has a long history of shoulder issues and Sabathia struggled through knee injuries before ending the season in rehab for alcohol abuse. Even Severino, who was dominant in his rookie showing, has never thrown more than last season’s 161 2/3 innings in a single season. The ability to shorten games with an elite bullpen triumvirate would lessen the expectations placed on what looks to be a potentially shaky rotation.
The Reds will be adding two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second tier of prospects (Jagielo and Davis) in addition to a pair of prospects that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball America (Cotham, Renda; hat tip to BA’s John Manuel, on Twitter). BA considers Davis the best of the bunch, having recently ranked him sixth in the Yankees’ farm system. MLB.com, meanwhile, has Jagielo sixth and Davis rated 10th.
Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the game.
As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.
The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter. The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23 steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn praise for his makeup and work ethic as well, and last offseason Fangraphs’ scouting report praised his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.
Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits (four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out 30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his brief big league tenure this past season.
Ultimately, the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer, it would seem. While the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a trade. It’s easy to speak now with the benefit of hindsight, but the reported offer of Braden Shipley plus a pair of other Top 10 prospects from the Diamondbacks in July does appear to be a stronger package than the one received by Cincinnati today. However, with the reason for Cincinnati’s reduced leverage in trade talks being entirely out of the team’s control, it’s not fair to simply state that they should have taken that deal. Jose Peraza, after all, was said to be heading to the Reds from the Dodgers as part of the trade package with L.A. before Chapman’s off-field issues derailed those discussions.
For the Reds, who have also traded Todd Frazier this winter (in a trade that was met with lukewarm reviews, at best, for Cincinnati’s return), the Chapman trade seems unlikely to spell the end of their offseason rebuilding efforts. Cincinnati has also attempted to move second baseman Brandon Phillips, though he reportedly elected not to waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to the Nationals. Right fielder Jay Bruce is also no stranger to trade rumors, either, and could see his name circulate on the rumor mill with increased frequency as the Reds seek to stockpile more young talent.
Baseball America’s Josh Norris first reported that the two teams were nearing a trade (Twitter link). Jack Curry of the YES Network reported that a trade involving Chapman was close (Twitter link) and later tweeted that four minor leaguers were going to Cincinnati. Norris reported Davis’ inclusion in the deal (Twitter link). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the agreement as in place.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.