Matt Harvey Backs Proposed 180-Inning Limit
7:35pm: Harvey’s agent Scott Boras conducted a study regarding Tommy John recipients similar to Harvey, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Boras looked at pitchers who never exceeded 200 innings in a season, had Tommy John surgery, then returned with a roughly 200 inning workload.
Four pitchers fit into the statistical bucket – Shaun Marcum, Josh Johnson, Jarrod Parker, and Kris Medlen. Three of them required a second Tommy John surgery while the fourth, Marcum, is quite familiar with the disabled list. Boras offers Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann as two examples who built their innings total more carefully. Obviously, both pitchers have yet to experience another elbow related injury.
To be fair, any statistician would warn against taking this case study at face value. It’s interesting that all four pitchers have experienced continual health problems, but full statistical and medical analysis would surely be needed before assessing how these findings apply to other players.
4:47pm: Yesterday, it was reported that there was friction between Matt Harvey‘s agent Scott Boras and the Mets over the Mets’ plans for handling Harvey down the stretch. Boras wanted the Mets to keep Harvey, who had Tommy John surgery following the 2013 season, on a 180-inning limit. Harvey has already pitched 166 1/3 innings this year, so a 180-inning limit would severely limit the Mets’ use of Harvey in the rest of the regular season and in the playoffs. The Mets responded that they would pitch Harvey based on their own plan and would have him pitch a “reasonable” amount during the postseason.
Today the story took a surprising turn, as Harvey himself spoke up to back the 180-inning limit. Here are the details, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (Twitter links) and the Record’s Matt Ehalt (Twitter links: 1 2 3 4). Harvey told reporters today that he would be limited to 180 innings. He refused to answer questions about the playoffs.
“I’m going to always play, but like I said, I hired Dr. [James] Andrews to do my surgery, and I hired Scott for a reason, and that’s to prolong my career and put me in the best possible position,” said Harvey, who added that the 180-inning limit came from Andrews (although Harvey was unsure whether that included the playoffs).
Via FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links), however, the Mets deny that Andrews backed a 180-inning limit. “He didn’t say 180 was the number,” says GM Sandy Alderson. “He was not categorical at all.” Rosenthal also tweets that Andrews does not prescribe strict innings limits for patients returning from Tommy John surgery.
Despite Boras’ previous comments, it’s surprising that Harvey would come out so strongly in favor of the innings limit. In early July, Harvey complained about the Mets’ six-man rotation, which would have limited his innings total this year. Some reporters, including Rosenthal (on Twitter), have suggested that Harvey might be hurting. That is, of course, speculation. But it could explain the timing of the 180-inning controversy, which might have been resolved, say, before the season, rather than in September. In any case, such a severe restriction on an impact pitcher like Harvey for the remainder of the season would have a significant effect on the Mets’ chances the rest of the way.
White Sox Claim Mike Olt From Cubs
The White Sox have claimed Mike Olt from the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. The Cubs designated Olt for assignment last week when they acquired outfielder Austin Jackson. They originally acquired Olt from the Rangers when they sent Matt Garza to Texas in 2013. At the time, Olt was a well regarded young player who had hit for good power in the minors, but he struggled at the Triple-A level after arriving in the Cubs system. He got an extended shot in the Majors last season and didn’t hit well, batting .160/.248/.356 in 258 plate appearances (although he did hit 12 homers). This year, he’s hit .265/.333/.460 in 235 plate appearances at Triple-A, missing time early in the season due to a wrist injury.
With Kris Bryant at third base, Anthony Rizzo at first and plenty of young talent elsewhere, it appeared unlikely Olt would get many more chances with the Cubs. Now 27, he’ll attempt to revive his career with the Cubs’ crosstown rivals. The White Sox should be able to provide more opportunities at third base — the team currently has Tyler Saladino and Gordon Beckham at third, neither of whom have hit well this year.
Tim Lincecum Undergoes Season-Ending Hip Surgery
7:04pm: Club trainer Dave Groeschner says that Lincecum is expected to require about five months to recover from the procedure, as Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports (Twitter links). Lincecum underwent both a labrum repair and a shaving of bone to address an impingement. “The doctor was pretty confident this will help him, and help him return to pitching next season,” said Groeschner.
11:43am: Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum underwent season-ending hip surgery this morning, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Giants GM Bobby Evans said Thursday in a KNBR radio appearance that Lincecum is out for the season, though he did not definitively mention Lincecum’s surgical procedure (hat tip: Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle). Said Evans:
“He won’t be able to come back this season. That’s evident. He went to Colorado to see a specialist and get a second opinion and get an evaluation with the prospect that he will have surgery. The next step for him is to do everything he can and get back and get well, but it’s going to take him out for the season. What that leads to in terms of his progression healthwise will dictate what opportunities he has with us or elsewhere.”
As Schulman notes, the injury may very well bring to a close Lincecum’s historic career as a member of the Giants.
Selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2006 draft, Lincecum debuted in 2007 as a hard-throwing 23-year-old, tossing 146 1/3 innings of 4.00 ERA ball and averaging better than a strikeout per inning with initially shaky control. The control woes quickly dissipated, however, as Lincecum won consecutive Cy Young Awards in his next two seasons. From 2008-11, there were few pitchers in the game that were decisively better than “The Freak,” whose unorthodox delivery and dominant results won the hearts of Giants fans. Over that four-year stretch, Lincecum posted a 2.81 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 881 2/3 innings, earning All-Star honors each year.
Since that time, though, Lincecum’s career has gone in the opposite direction. He’s lost the mid-90s fastball that he had in his early to mid-20s, and he averaged just 87.2 mph on his vastly diminished heater this year. Lincecum inked a two-year, $35MM extension after the 2013 season despite marginal bottom-line results (sabermetric stats pegged him in a more optimistic light), but he hasn’t lived up to that deal. In the end, he’ll have pitched just 232 innings with a 4.54 ERA to show for it under that contract.
Schulman writes that Lincecum “surely will not get a Major League deal” from the Giants this offseason, and if that’s the case, it does seem likely that his days with San Francisco are coming to a close. Barring an exorbitant recovery timetable from this operation, it’s tough to imagine that no team would give Lincecum a big league deal, his lack of recent results notwithstanding.
Heyman wrote earlier this week that Lincecum was seeing renowned hip specialist Marc Philippon in Vail, Colo. Per Heyman’s report, surgery would most likely have Lincecum ready in time for Spring Training, and there’s a belief among some doctors that the dip in velocity is partially tied to his hip troubles.
Dodgers To Promote Corey Seager
10:15am: Part of the reason for Seager’s recall is that fellow shortstop option Jose Peraza is dealing with a sore hamstring that will sideline him for three to five games, leaving the team with no backup shortstop, tweets Rosenthal. Kiké Hernandez, another option, is still on the disabled list with his own hamstring injury.
9:05am: The Dodgers are calling up top infield prospect Corey Seager, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Seager is ranked by many as the game’s top overall prospect.
The 21-year-old Seager is the younger brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager and is a former first-round pick (18th overall in 2012). Seager has steadily risen up prospect charts over the course of his pro career and currently ranks No. 1 overall per Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law and Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel. MLB.com ranks him second in the game, placing him behind only Minnesota’s Byron Buxton.
Seager has split the 2015 season between Double-A and Triple-A, where he has accumulated a combined .292/.343/.486 batting line with 18 homers, 36 doubles and three triples on the season. Though he’s spent much of his career at shortstop, Seager has played some third base this season, and all of the prospect rankings above mention that he seems likely to eventually transition to the hot corner due to his size (6’4″, 215 pounds). MLB.com notes that he has the arm and instincts to handle shortstop but lacks the quickness one would typically expect out of a shortstop.
For the remainder of the 2015 season, however, Seager could get looks at both shortstop and third base. Jimmy Rollins has struggled with the bat for most of the season (though he’s been better of late, slashing .262/.313/.436 over an admittedly arbitrary sample of his past 37 games), and Justin Turner is presently dealing with an injured finger. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets, the Dodgers’ previous mentality had been that they wouldn’t promote Seager unless he had a spot to play, so perhaps Turner’s hand is worse than they’ve let on, or the team simply had a change of heart.
From a service time standpoint, Seager currently would project to be a free agent after the 2021 season and would not be in line to achieve Super Two designation along the way. Of course, that assumes that the Dodgers will keep him in the Major Leagues from this point forth. Seager could certainly struggle in the Majors in his first cup of coffee, prompting further minor league time. The Dodgers could see long-term benefit from keeping him in the minors a bit longer, as delaying his 2015 debut into mid-May would buy the team an additional year of control over Seager by delaying his free agency until after the 2022 campaign.
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Cubs Designate Russell, Soriano; Select Contracts Of Cahill, Berry; Recall Baez
The Cubs have designated left-hander James Russell for assignment and also activated right-hander Rafael Soriano from the disabled list and designated him for assignment as well, the team announced. These two moves make 40-man roster space for the contracts of Trevor Cahill and Quintin Berry, each of which was selected from Triple-A Iowa. The Cubs also recalled Javier Baez and Tsuyoshi Wada.
Russell, 29, returned to the Cubs on a minor league deal this year after being traded to the Braves last summer and subsequently released in Spring Training. Russell was extremely sharp in Triple-A prior to his promotion to rejoin the Cubs, firing 9 2/3 scoreless innings and allowing just four hits and zero walks against 12 strikeouts. He’s struggled in the Majors, however, totaling a dismal 5.29 ERA with 5.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 34 innings. A fluky low 57.7 strand rate has played a large role in his bloated ERA, leading stats such as FIP (3.89), xFIP (4.36) and SIERA (4.32) to project better results. Those numbers, of course, are hardly dominant projections in their own right, and the .338/.368/.606 batting line Russell has yielded to right-handed hitters is its own troublesome issue.
The Cubs signed the veteran Soriano to a minor league deal with a $4.1MM base salary back in June, but the former Nationals/Yankees/Rays closer appeared in just six games with Chicago before landing on the DL due to right shoulder inflammation. Soriano didn’t sign as a free agent over the winter, holding out for a significant deal that never came. He eventually fired agent Scott Boras and signed on with Octagon, taking his deal with the Cubs shortly after. It’s a disappointing followup to a mostly successful two-year stint as the Nationals’ closer, and one would imagine that Soriano is almost certainly looking at another minor league deal this winter following a brief and disappointing stint as a Cub.
Braves Promote Hector Olivera
The Braves have promoted infielder Hector Olivera for his first major league stint, according to a team announcement. The move had been expected, as reporters have indicated over recent days that Olivera was being prepared for a September call-up. (Among them, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted yesterday that a move was still expected and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com added today on Twitter that it was forthcoming.)
Nothing about the 30-year-old’s nascent professional career has been straightforward thus far. While it’s hard to know quite what to expect, it will certainly be interesting to see him in action at the big league level. Olivera is expected to see regular time at third base, as O’Brien tweets.
Hotly pursued as a free agent out of Cuba, Olivera signed with the Dodgers over the winter for six years and $62.5MM after making a last-minute switch of agents. But he was ultimately traded to the Braves over the summer in an inordinately complicated three-team arrangement. With $28MM of that commitment accounted for in a signing bonus, he’ll only cost Atlanta about $30MM from 2016 to 2020.
Olivera was putting up big offensive numbers in the Dodgers’ system before suffering a hamstring injury. He continued to work back from that after being traded to the Braves, but he never came all the way back around at the plate before moving out of the minors. It’s important to bear in mind that we’re still looking at very small samples here. His time in the majors over the next month should say more about his longer-term outlook, though even that will serve as little more than an introduction.
Royals Acquire Jonny Gomes
TODAY: Atlanta will pay half of Gomes’ salary the rest of the way, or about $380K, per Heyman (via Twitter).
YESTERDAY, 8:42pm: The Royals have officially acquired outfielder Jonny Gomes from the Braves, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported on Twitter. Atlanta will send cash along with the veteran and will receive minor league infielder Luis Valenzuela in return, as Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported (Twitter links).
Gomes, 34, is a highly-regarded clubhouse presence and noted lefty killer at the plate. Though he’s seen his power numbers drop off this year, and owns only a 93 OPS+ overall, Gomes has still slashed a productive .247/.412/.466 against opposing southpaws.
The Braves signed Gomes to a one-year, $4MM free agent contract this winter. It includes a $3MM club option that would vest at different amounts based on various plate appearance thresholds. With Gomes likely to see only part-time duty, it’s unlikely that he’ll meet the minimum of 325 plate appearances (which would cause the option to vest at $3MM).
Kansas City is all but certain to win the AL Central at this point, so the move was presumably made with the post-season in mind. It isn’t hard to imagine Gomes seeing some important at bats in potential playoff matchups against pitchers such as David Price, Dallas Keuchel, and Cole Hamels.
It remains to be seen, though, what kind of alignment the Royals are pondering. Obviously, Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain will receive regular playing time so long as they are healthy. Among the club’s other righty outfield bats, neither starter Alex Rios nor fill-in Paulo Orlando have done much against left-handed pitching.
In Valenzuela, who just turned 22, the Braves will receive a player who reached the Class A level for the first time this year. Over 184 plate appearances, he’s slashed .339/.368/.483 with three home runs and eight stolen bases.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Acquire Alejandro De Aza
The Giants have officially acquired outfielder Alejandro De Aza from the Red Sox, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported on Twitter. Lefty Luis Ysla will return to Boston in the deal, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reported on Twitter.
The Red Sox will pay $650K of De Aza’s salary in the deal, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. Having agreed to a $5MM salary to avoid arbitration in his final year of eligibility, De Aza is still owed just under $930K the rest of the way. But Boston reportedly only took on around $1MM in total commitments to De Aza when it added him on June 4. With $650K said to be going with the veteran to San Francisco, it appears that the Giants will not be paying much (if anything) of the tab.
De Aza, 31, turned around a sluggish start upon his move to the Red Sox. The free agent-to-be has slashed .292/.347/.484 over 178 plate appearances since that trade. Once an everyday center fielder with the White Sox, De Aza now profiles more as a platoon corner defender. He’s continued to perform much better against right-handed pitching, with increasing platoon splits in 2015.
For San Francisco, the month of August has required some injury-driven leak plugging. The club reportedly pursued infield help, including Chase Utley, before adding Marlon Byrd and now De Aza to help account for injuries to outfielders Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence.
By squeezing in the deal in advance of midnight eastern time tonight, San Francisco will be able to utilize the veteran De Aza on its post-season roster, if it qualifies. He has now changed teams via trade for the second time this summer and for the third time in the last two seasons.
Ysla, 23, turned in a nice season last year as a starter at the Class A level, but has struggled in High-A ball this year. Serving mostly out of the pen, Ysla has allowed 12.3 hits per nine and 4.6 BB/9 while retiring 10.7 opposing batters via strikeout per nine innings thrown. In 79 2/3 frames, he’s worked to a 6.21 ERA.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers To Acquire Justin Ruggiano
The Dodgers have acquired outfielder Justin Ruggiano from the Mariners, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports on Twitter. A player to be named later or cash considerations will head back to Seattle in the deal.
Ruggiano, 33, has spent much of the season at Triple-A after a slow start to the year. He agreed to an arbitration salary of just over $2.5MM over the winter (with about $465K left to go on that salary), and will be eligible for another arb year if his new club tenders him a contract.
While Ruggiano failed to match his productive 2014 in the earlygoing, he wasn’t actually that bad, putting up a .214/.321/.357 batting line over 81 plate appearances. And he’s slashed .296/.385/.514 with ten home runs in 205 plate appearances at Triple-A since being outrighted.
Most importantly, even during his MLB time this year, Ruggiano continued to hit lefties hard, as he has throughout his career. He’ll presumably be looked upon as an option against southpaws in Los Angeles. The Dodgers were in need of another right-handed-hitting outfield bat down the stretch after seeing both Yasiel Puig and Kike Hernandez go down to injuries in recent days.
Cubs Acquire Austin Jackson
6:26pm: The deal is now official, with the Cubs making an announcement.
6:20pm: Chicago will cover $1MM of Jackson’s remaining salary, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. The Mariners will pay the $430K or so of obligations otherwise left on his deal.
5:04pm: The Cubs have agreed to acquire outfielder Austin Jackson from the Mariners, Shannon Drayer of 710 AM ESPN in Seattle reports (Twitter link). Jackson had reportedly cleared revocable trade waivers, and by adding him today, the Cubs will have the option of utilizing him on their post-season roster.
A player to be named later and a $211,100 international signing slot will reportedly head to Seattle in the deal. Chicago also obtains cash to offset some of the remainder of Jackson’s $7.7MM annual salary.
Already set to hit free agency after the season, Jackson will end his disappointing tenure in Seattle earlier than had been planned. He was acquired with high hopes last summer in the three-team David Price deal, with the Mariners sending Nick Franklin to the Rays to add the center fielder from the Tigers. Needless to say, things have not worked out for the player or the team.
At the time, Jackson was putting up slightly-above-average offensive numbers in Detroit. But he’s been significantly worse with the M’s, slashing just .257/.297/.343 over 684 plate appearances between this year and last. Jackson has contributed only eight home runs in that span as his power has fallen off, and he’s been caught 11 times on steal attempts while successfully taking 26 bags.
Jackson remains an approximately league-average defender up the middle. And at just 28 years of age, he still holds at least some promise of more given his quality early-career production. Between 2010 and 2013, Jackson racked up 18.9 rWAR with a .278/.344/.416 cumulative slash, a solid power/speed mix, and defensive ratings that ranged from good to excellent.
Mariners interim GM Jeff Kingston explained that there was relatively little interest in the veteran this month, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes on Twitter. While there had been an outside chance that the club would hold onto Jackson and make him a qualifying offer, that is no longer an option with the mid-season trade. That seemed at least plausible given Jackson’s age, but it seems that Seattle decided against the risky move and chose instead to get what it could for him now.
For Chicago, Jackson represents another right-handed-hitting outfield option as Jorge Soler deals with an oblique injury, though it’s worth noting that he traditionally carries fairly neutral platoon splits. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Jackson can play in center, but he seems unlikely to take much time from the switch-hitting Dexter Fowler, who traditionally performs better against left-handed pitching. While Jackson is still owed about $1.43MM of salary this year, at least some of that obligation will remain Seattle’s responsibility.
MLB.com’s Greg Johns first suggested an international slot may be involved (via Twitter), as to which Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter) and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (also via Twitter) provided details. Divish first reported that a PTBNL was part of the return (on Twitter) provided details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.