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Commissioner Rob Manfred expressed heightened confidence that Major League Baseball will stage an exhibition game in Cuba next spring, indicating to Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal that major league teams were likely to take the field on the island in 2016. Manfred has indicated previously that the league was eyeing such an endeavor, but said today that recent discussions with the U.S. government had lent additional optimism to that possibility.

Baseball is still feeling its way through recent changes in the United States’ diplomatic posture towards Cuba, the small island that produces some of the game’s best ballplayers. One immediate impact, of course, was that several notable players seeking to sign with big league teams — Yoan Moncada and Hector Olivera, most prominently — were able to achieve clearance much more quickly than had been the case. But the longer-term implications and strategies are still being sorted out, and remain highly dependent upon broader forces.

“The combination of [the U.S. government’s] input and where we are in our calendar for 2015 makes the most likely point in time to be spring training of 2016,” said Manfred. “It’s not a three-day exercise to play a meaningful exhibition game in Cuba. You need a little lead time to get that done, to put everything together, to be able to broadcast it in the way that it deserves.”

That level of effort makes sense, the new commissioner indicated, because the Cuban market offers significant appeal to the league. “It’s a great source of talent,” Manfred said. “We’ve seen the level of interest that quality Cuban players have generated among major-league clubs. And secondly, Cuba is a country where baseball is part of the culture, like it is here in the United States, and we love markets like that.”

Manfred made clear that he expects to follow the government’s lead on engagement, calling it “an honor” to “play a role in helping the United States government effectuate a change in policy.” An exhibition game (or games) would constitute an important and highly symbolic step both for the game and for the larger political relationship.

As Manfred hinted, there are many areas that will call for delicate handling. He declined to comment on whether and how player movement from Cuba to the majors would be handling, noting that he is likely “to have a negotiation on this topic at some point.” The commissioner said recently that he likes the idea of “a single modality of entry” for players and said he believes an international draft process will eventually be implemented. Whether and how Cuba would be incorporated into that system will surely be a matter of keen interest not only for teams but also the Cuban government.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred discussed the possibility of the introduction of an international draft, coming forward rather strongly in support of the concept, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. “I am of the view that at some point, for the good of the game, for the good of competitive balance, we are going to have an international draft,” said Manfred.

The notion of some draft mechanism has, of course, been widely discussed recently, but the newly-minted commissioner’s evident favor toward the idea is a notable development. In the analysis of Baseball America’s Ben Badler, via Twitter, today’s comments represent Manfred’s “strongest words yet on wanting an international draft.” Significant practical considerations remain, of course, although Manfred has already proved a willingness to try new things in implementing new pace-of-play measures.

Manfred emphasized that his comments were aimed in a general direction, and do not necessarily mean that he has designs on a unified draft. “I mean this in the broadest possible sense,” he said. “Whether it’s one draft, two drafts. … I won’t comment on those details. Conceptually a single modality of entry in the draft system has always been very appealing to me.” 

In his comments, Manfred indicated that his thinking was driven by recent changes in the international market. Teams have triggered maximum penalties for exceeding their pools on players from countries other than Cuba, but recent political changes have led to increasing numbers of Cuban nationals streaming into free agency — many of them subject to international bonus spending limits. All said, the league’s spending cap system increasingly appears out of date, as Manfred explained:

“Frankly, we thought we made progress on the international side in terms of caps and penalties we put in place,” Manfred explained. “Two years into the deal we felt pretty good about where we were. What happened? With the relaxation that’s taken place with respect of Cuban players it has put a stress test on that international system. Frankly, it’s proved wanting.”

The reason for the cap system, as Manfred frames it, was to ensure “that the weakest team had the ability to get the best talent at an affordable price.” As Badler notes, however, controlling costs is also a key element for the league.

Resolving those considerations and addressing the practical barriers to an international draft will, of course, be matters for the collective bargaining process between the league and player’s union. Manfred expressed confidence in working with his counterpart, MLBPA chief Tony Clark, who also is relatively new to his role. While it is theoretically possible that international changes could be negotiated at any time, the likeliest scenario appears to be that the matter will be a key element in broader talks for a new CBA to replace the Basic Agreement that expires on December 1, 2016.