Dan Haren Tells Marlins He Wants To Pitch Elsewhere
JAN. 5: Frisaro now reports that there is a market for Haren, and the Marlins will do their best to work out a deal that benefits both parties. He adds that his ultimate expectation is that Haren will indeed be traded.
Meanwhile, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, who reported earlier this morning that Haren had begun a throwing program to get ready for the 2015 season, hears that the Marlins are hopeful of having a resolution soon on Haren’s 2015 plans (Twitter link).
JAN. 3: Dan Haren has told the Marlins he would still like to pitch for a West Coast team, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. It appears, then, that Haren is unlikely to pitch for the Marlins in 2015, although Frisaro notes that it’s still unclear whether Haren will retire.
The Dodgers traded Haren to Miami last month in the Dee Gordon / Andrew Heaney deal and agreed to pay his salary for the coming season, despite Haren’s preference to play in Southern California (where his family lives) and indications that he would retire if traded elsewhere. The Angels have said they’re not interested in dealing for Haren, and the Dodgers already traded him away, limiting his options.
Frisaro writes that Haren’s preference is to pitch “out West” and to have Spring Training in Arizona, noting that the only West division team that doesn’t train in Arizona is the Astros. It’s not clear, however, whether Haren has widened his interest beyond the three Southern California teams.
Phillies Sign Aaron Harang
The Phillies have added some innings to their rotation, announcing the signing of right-hander Aaron Harang to a one-year, $5MM deal. Harang, a client of ACES, can earn more through performance incentives and awards bonuses, per the team.
The 36-year-old Harang enjoyed a very nice rebound campaign with the Braves in 2014, pitching to a 3.57 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate in 204 1/3 innings. Harang’s 3.57 FIP felt that his ERA was a perfect indicator of his skill set, although other metrics such as xFIP (4.03) and SIERA (4.18) felt that he was the beneficiary of some good fortune. Interest from Philadelphia was first noted last week by CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury.
For the Phillies, Harang will provide a much-needed stabilizing force in the rotation, and he comes at a price tag that isn’t prohibitive. While the Phillies don’t expect to contend in 2015 — they’ve already traded away Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd and Antonio Bastardo — they still need someone to soak up innings in the rotation. Harang can do just that for manager Ryne Sandberg. He’ll join Cliff Lee and possibly Cole Hamels (depending on whether or not he is traded) in an otherwise thin rotation. Jerome Williams figures to lock down one spot, with David Buchanan the likely occupant of another. Beyond that, the fifth spot figures to be a competition between the likes of reported non-roster invitee Wandy Rodriguez, right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and eventually 2014 first-round pick Aaron Nola.
Harang’s peak came in the 2006-07 seasons with the Reds when he hurled a combined 466 innings of 3.75 ERA ball in the very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Harang posted a 124 ERA+ in each of those seasons and even finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2007. He was off to a solid start in 2008, but many Reds fans will point to a four-inning, 63-pitch relief stint on two days’ rest (in an 18-inning marathon game) on May 25 of that season as the day in which things took a turn for the worse for Harang. Though he fired four scoreless innings that day, Harang wound up on the DL with a forearm strain and posted a 5.88 ERA over the remainder of the year. He never fully regained his form as a Red, although he’s had relatively successful stints with the Padres, Dodgers and Mets (in terms of ERA, anyhow) since leaving Cincinnati.
Harang’s contract is affordable enough that the Phillies should be able to flip him at the trade deadline if he’s pitching well. We at MLBTR agreed that a two-year deal could be possible for Harang based on his strong 2014 (as Zach Links mentioned in his free agent profile), but the market for Harang’s services never gained too much steam. The large number of quality arms on both the free agent and trade markets likely prevented that from happening, but Harang still managed to pull in a guarantee five times larger than the $1MM sum paid to him by the Braves a year ago.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports first reported that a deal was in place (Twitter link).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
White Sox To Sign Emilio Bonifacio
9:00am: Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets that Bonifacio will earn $3MM in 2015, and the option is valued at $4MM with a $1MM buyout.
8:36am: Bonifacio’s contract also contains a club option for the 2016 season, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter link).
8:08am: The White Sox and utility man Emilio Bonifacio have agreed to a one-year, $4MM contract, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
Bonifacio, a client of agent Gene Mato, will give the White Sox another option at second base following the trade of Marcus Semien to Oakland. Currently, Micah Johnson and Carlos Sanchez figure to battle for that spot, though the 29-year-old Bonifacio could conceivably land the gig outright if Chicago would like its pair of prospects to gather additional playing time in the minors before seeing regular big league at-bats.
If Johnson or Sanchez is the preferred choice out of Spring Training, the Sox will have a highly versatile utility player on their hands in Bonifacio at a reasonable price for someone that can handle a wide array of positions. The switch-hitting Bonifacio played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield positions between the Cubs and Braves last season, batting .259/.305/.345 with 26 steals in 426 plate appearances along the way.
The addition of Bonifacio continues a busy offseason for White Sox GM Rick Hahn and his staff. The South Siders have already added free agents Melky Cabrera, David Robertson, Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke in addition to swinging a trade for former A’s/Cubs ace Jeff Samardzija. That’s $132MM in free agent spending, and if MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s $9.5MM projection for Samardzija holds true, it’ll total out to $141.5MM in total spending — $53MM of which will be on the books for the 2015 season. Beyond that, the ChiSox have added a number of notable names on minor league contracts this season, including veteran righty Brad Penny, outfielder Tony Campana and catcher George Kottaras.
James Shields Expected To Get Nine-Figure Deal
James Shields is expected to get at least five years and $100MM, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. Two executives tell Rosenthal that Shields already has a $110MM offer in hand. As Rosenthal notes, however, rumors of an $110MM offer don’t mean that Shields will ultimately sign for that much or more. For example, there were rumors of a $65MM offer for Chase Headley, who ultimately settled for less from the Yankees.
It’s still not clear who will sign Shields. The Marlins and Diamondbacks feel Shields is out of their price range, Rosenthal writes, and the Giants, Padres and Red Sox don’t currently seem highly motivated, either. And the Royals, who have spent on several players already this offseason, don’t appear likely to re-sign Shields. It’s possible that one or more of those teams has more interest than it’s letting on, however. Rosenthal also suggests the Tigers, Yankees and Angels as possibilities, although Shields hasn’t been closely connected to any of those teams.
Mark Polishuk recently polled MLBTR readers about Shields’ likely destination, and the results reflect the uncertainty that seems to exist throughout the industry. Less than 20% of you feel the Giants will sign Shields, followed by the Red Sox, Yankees, and “Other,” which got over 10% of the vote, even with 13 teams in the poll.
Orioles Have Discussed Andre Ethier With Dodgers
The Orioles have had discussions about Andre Ethier with the Dodgers, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Baltimore is in search of a left-handed hitting outfielder and the 32-year-old (33 in April) could be a fit.
While Ethier has been prominently mentioned in trade rumors throughout the winter, it would be somewhat surprising to see the Dodgers part with him after dealing Matt Kemp just weeks ago. Ethier was relegated to the bench last season and while he took it in stride, he made it clear to Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times in early December that he wanted to start in 2015 – whether that was in Los Angeles or elsewhere. The former two-time All-Star hit just .249/.322/.370 with four homers in 380 plate appearances last season.
As Kubatko notes, the Orioles checked on Kemp earlier this winter but decided against pursuing him due to his contract and health issues and the Dodgers’ insistence on getting Kevin Gausman or Dylan Bundy in return. Ethier would not require that same kind of haul, though he also comes with a hefty contract. He’s owed $53.5MM over the next three more years and has a $17.5MM vesting option for 2018 with a $2.5 million buyout, adding up to a full $56MM guarantee.
While there is some degree of interest in Ethier, Kubatko says that the Orioles apparently still rate Colby Rasmus as the most likely possibility of their left-handed hitting outfield targets. The O’s also have interest in fellow free agent Nori Aoki. Baltimore reportedly has interest in 41-year-old Ichiro Suzuki, but Kubatko hears he’d be a tough sell for some in the organization.
Rosenthal On The Yankees
For the first time in awhile, the Yankees are showing signs of youth and upside, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Per GM Brian Cashman, the club is deeper, flexible, younger, and more diverse. Rosenthal notes that Cashman is finally operating “from a position of strength,” and “no longer is in a box.” The Yankees have options moving forward besides depending on outspending the competition. Here’s more Yankees notes from Rosenthal’s column.
- The Yankees have the prospect depth to trade for Cole Hamels if they wanted. However, Rosenthal cautions that Cashman may be reluctant to part with the depth he’s so carefully nurtured. A deal for Hamels might also start with newly acquired shortstop Didi Gregorius, which would just create a new problem to solve (arguably a more difficult problem in my opinion). The Yankees had the pieces to add Johan Santana back when the the Twins were shopping him, but they kept their prospects and spent on C.C. Sabathia the following offseason. We could be in for some deja vu, especially with next offseason’s free agent market shaping up to be pitching rich.
- While the club can turn to free agency rather than trade for Hamels, Rosenthal thinks they would have re-signed Robinson Cano last offseason if they wanted to make a $200MM investment. For that reason, a pact with Max Scherzer might be unlikely.
- Cashman has three surprising trades this offseason, so guessing his behavior based on history might be misleading. The club could deal from its minor league catching depth, such as John Ryan Murphy or Gary Sanchez. Others such as Gregorius, Nathan Eovaldi, David Carpenter, and Brett Gardner are less likely to be offered in trade talks.
Showalter To Meet With Colby Rasmus Saturday
Orioles manager Buck Showalter will meet with free agent Colby Rasmus today, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reported earlier this week that Showalter would speak to Rasmus about the Orioles’ interest in him.
The Orioles, contenders who play in a good ballpark, should have no problem attracting players and are not recruiting Rasmus, Connolly writes. Instead, Showalter wants to see whether Rasmus, who has at times had issues with coaches, would be a good fit for the O’s. (He had similar discussions with Nelson Cruz, Delmon Young and Alfredo Aceves before those players were acquired, Kubatko notes.) According to Kubatko, Baltimore believes that Rasmus might sign for one year and between $5MM and $8MM, giving the talented outfielder a chance to build his value before hitting the free agent market next season at age 29.
Tillman, Orioles Mutually Interested In Extension
Righty Chris Tillman and the Orioles have “mutual interest” in an extension, executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Tillman is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.
“There are a few candidates for that,” says Duquette. “We haven’t spent much time on that, but contract discussion is always a good time to explore that.”
Matt Swartz’s model projects Tillman will make $5.4MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. As Swartz notes, that would break Dontrelle Willis‘ record (later tied by David Price) for first-time eligible starting pitchers, which has stood at $4.35MM for eight years. Swartz suspects, however, the model’s $5.4MM guess is a bit high.
Still, with a 13-6 record in 2014 (not a particularly important figure analytically, but a consideration in arbitration), a 3.34 ERA and 207 1/3 innings pitched, Tillman can make a very strong arbitration case. Of course, one reason Willis’ mark has stood for so long is because some candidates to break it (such as Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and Mat Latos) have signed extensions first. All three of those pitchers initially signed two-year deals. It’s unclear if the Orioles would have interest locking Tillman up long term, or if they would want a shorter deal primarily intended to provide cost certainty for the 26-year-old’s arbitration years. If it’s the latter, Latos’ two-year, $11.5MM deal from before the 2013 season might provide a reasonable starting point for discussions.
Free Agent Faceoff: Back Of Rotation Starters
With another quiet day turning into an even less eventful evening, I thought we’d spice things up with a look at a particularly interesting segment of the free agent market: innings-eating veteran starters.
Sure, I’m joking. Almost by definition, a back-of-the-rotation innings eater is not a very exciting pitcher. But, then again, perhaps there is something to the idea that this corner of the universe has more intrigue than it might seem at first glance.
Targeting top-end players is fairly straightforward, whereas figuring whether to pursue one or another back-end arm involves much more careful parsing to find value. The fact that most such pitchers sign for short-term deals means that clubs must be right on the player in the immediate term; there is no time to fix them for the future. And then there is the fact that the performance of these players matters a great deal; unlike a utility man or reliever, innings-eating arms are expected to occupy full-time roles. Racking up losses because your number 4 and 5 starters are not competitive is a great way to dig a hole in the standings.
The potential impact of this type of player is evidenced by the list of the best durable, veteran starters still available, several of whom played for contenders in 2014 and one of whom even pitched in the World Series. For better or worse, all of the players listed were allowed to throw at least 150 innings last year, creating plenty of opportunity to add or subtract value.
Kevin Correia: The results are not usually that exciting, but Correia has logged at least 100 innings in every season since 2007. He delivered an average of 178 innings of 4.19 ERA pitching over 2012-13 before suffering through a rough 2014.
Aaron Harang: Last year’s shining example of the importance of choosing your innings eaters carefully, Harang put up 204 1/3 frames with a 3.57 ERA. Sure, there’s a lot baked in there other than his pitching, but the bottom line is that Harang rated amongst the game’s fifty best starters in terms of preventing runs and among its 25 best in logging innings.
Roberto Hernandez: The results haven’t been there for Hernandez, and there is not much silver lining given that he has seen a steady decline in fastball velocity. But he is quite a steady groundball inducer, and showed enough that the Dodgers traded for him and gave him nine starts down the stretch.
Kyle Kendrick: At some point, 199 innings is 199 innings, and that’s what Kendrick delivered last season. He is also a fairly youthful 30 years of age, and is not far removed from producing serviceable results.
Ryan Vogelsong: Though his peripherals are somewhat less promising, Vogelsong has posted pretty darned useful bottom-line results in three of the past four seasons. And he had enough in the tank to run his fastball up to the mid-90s in the postseason.
Chris Young: ERA estimators view Young’s 3.65 earned run mark last year as a mirage, but then again he has always outperformed his peripherals. It had been quite some time since the towering righty had handled a full season in a rotation, but Seattle happily converted his 165 innings of work into a 12-9 record in 29 starts.
Before you vote on the player you think will be the best bet for 2015, you might want to check out these custom Fangraphs leaderboards for a sense of their recent statistical achievements: last year; last three years; last five years.
Which Innings Eater Would You Rather Sign?
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Ryan Vogelsong 37% (5,583)
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Aaron Harang 25% (3,718)
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Kyle Kendrick 17% (2,632)
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Chris Young 16% (2,402)
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Kevin Correia 3% (455)
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Roberto Hernandez 2% (366)
Total votes: 15,156
Giants Out On Shields, Scherzer; Pursuing Zobrist
The Giants are out of the hunt for free agent starter James Shields, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). San Francisco never was in on Max Scherzer, and that remains the case, per the report.
But while an impact free agent arm is not in the offing, the team is still “trying to work a deal” to land outstanding utilityman Ben Zobrist from the Rays. A recent report from Peter Gammons had suggested that match on the veteran, who could potentially plug in at left field for the Giants while serving as a key depth piece throughout the infield. Always a potential piece of trade bait, the pending free agent became a more obvious target when Tampa agreed to terms with Asdrubal Cabrera.
GM Brian Sabean said recently that his organization has limited financial flexibility after re-signing Jake Peavy and Sergio Romo. It appeared at that time that the club would be choosing between a significant addition in the outfield against one in the rotation, and today’s report suggests that San Francisco is perhaps more focused on its lineup.
It would, perhaps, be foolish at this point to rule out entirely the possibility of more aggressive spending given the team’s recent World Series windfall. But the club already appears set to exceed last year’s payroll, and an attempt at two significant additions would bring it well past historical levels, if not even within sight of the luxury tax line.