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Braves Sign Gio Urshela

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9:30am: The Braves formally announced the signing of Urshela. Riley has been placed on the 10-day IL to open a spot on the active roster, while lefty A.J. Minter — who underwent season-ending hip surgery recently — was moved to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot.

8:20am: The Braves and Urshela have agreed to a deal, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

7:50am: The Braves are nearing a major league deal with third baseman Gio Urshela, per a report from The New York Post’s Joel Sherman this morning. Urshela was recently designated for assignment and released by the Tigers, who’ll be on the hook for the remainder of his $1.5MM salary. The Braves will only owe Urshela the prorated league minimum for the time he spends on the big league roster or injured list. Urshela is a client of Rep 1 Baseball.

The news comes just one day after Braves third baseman Austin Riley was diagnosed with a hand fracture that is expected to sideline him for between six and eight weeks. If that timeline holds, it will leave him out of action for at least the remainder of the regular season and the early portions of the postseason, though it’s feasible he could return to the field if Atlanta makes a deep enough run into the playoffs.

With utilityman Whit Merrifield already covering for the injured Ozzie Albies at second base, that seemingly left the club to rely on top infield prospect Nacho Alvarez Jr. and depth infielder Luke Williams to handle the hot corner down the stretch. With Urshela now in the fold, the club will add a veteran third baseman into the fold who could help raise the floor on their production at the position in Riley’s absence.

For Urshela, the deal represents an opportunity to get regular at-bats with a playoff contender down the stretch while also attempting to re-establish himself as a regular option following a disappointing stint in Detroit this year. Following a 2023 season where he was limited to just 62 games by a season-ending pelvic fracture, Urshela hit free agency and signed a one-year deal worth just $1.5MM with the Tigers back in February. At the time, it seemed to be a bargain for a player who had been a steady regular at third base for several years. It quickly turned sour, however, as Urshela delivered his worst season since establishing himself as a regular with the Yankees back in 2019.

The 32-year-old hit just .243/.286/.333 (73 wRC+) in 325 trips to the plate with the Tigers while splitting time between the infield corners. Defensive metrics are extremely mixed on Urshela’s defense at third, as the veteran has accumulated -17 Outs Above Average at the position since becoming a regular back in 2019. Brutal as that figure may seem, Defensive Runs Saved actually has Urshela as a plus defender at the hot corner over that same timeframe with a +4 figure overall. Still, even the most favorable views of Urshela’s defense leave it difficult to justify him as an everyday option if his hitting numbers remain where they were in Detroit.

Fortunately, there’s some reasons for optimism regarding the veteran’s future. His track record over the past half decade speaks for itself, as he entered the 2024 season as a solid .291/.335/.452 (115 wRC+) hitter since his 2019 breakout with New York. That’s the 16th-best figure among all qualified third baseman over that time frame. What’s more, Urshela’s .271 BABIP is by far the lowest of his career; he entered the 2024 season with a career .319 BABIP that had jumped to .334 since his breakout in 2019.

A return to form in that regard could help Urshela put up numbers closer to league average offensively. His batted ball data also suggests he’s in line for some positive regression. The 32-year-old’s .271 wOBA is a far cry from his .305 xwOBA, a figure that (while still below average) would put him roughly in line with his more palatable 2021 and 2023 seasons, where his offensive output was around 3% and 8% worse than league average (by wRC+). Even that level of production would make Urshela a solid fill-in at the hot corner for Atlanta, particularly if the club doesn’t want to push Alvarez into an everyday big league role in the middle of a pennant race at just 21 years old.

Cubs Release Hector Neris

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The Cubs are releasing veteran reliever Hector Neris, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The team already passed Neris through waivers without making a formal announcement of the move. He went unclaimed. Neris’ spot on the 40-man roster will be filled by right-hander Jack Neely, whose contract is being selected from Triple-A Iowa. Neely was acquired from the Yankees in the deadline trade sending Mark Leiter Jr. to the Bronx.

Neris, 35, was signed to a one-year, $9MM contract over the winter and has had an up-and-down season in what’ll now be his lone year with the Cubs. His 3.89 earned run average is sound, but Neris has blown five of 25 save situations on the season while sporting career-worst strikeout and walk rates of 23.1% and 13.3%, respectively.

The more prominent factor in the decision to release the right-hander, however, could be a vesting player option that would’ve kicked in had Neris reached 60 appearances or 45 games finished on the season. He’s only appeared in 46 games right now and finished a game 33 times. Neris thus would’ve needed to pitch in 14 of Chicago’s remaining 37 games — a 37% usage rate — or recorded the final out in 12 of them, but if he’d done so he’d have secured a $9MM player option for the upcoming season. Given his shaky performance, the Cubs very likely weren’t interested in allowing that provision to be reached.

While Neris clearly hasn’t had his best season, he’s only a year removed from a sparkling 1.71 ERA in 68 1/3 frames for the Astros. That mark is also deceptive, as benefited from a .219 average on balls in play and 90.5% strand rate that combined to tamp down his earned run average. Metrics like FIP (3.83) and SIERA (3.89) were more bearish, but between Neris’ 28.2% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate, he still had the makings of a solid all-around season. More broadly, Neris’ track record from 2019-23 on the whole is quite impressive. He pitched 297 1/3 innings between the Phillies and Astros, combining for a 3.12 ERA (3.33 SIERA), 30.2% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, 40.1% grounder rate, 0.97 HR/9, 73 holds and 50 saves.

With Neris returning to the open market, he’ll now be available for any team to sign for the remainder of the season. He’ll only cost his new club the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster/injured list. That sum would be subtracted from what the Cubs are paying him, but Chicago remains on the hook for the bulk of his contract regardless. And, so long as Neris signs with a new organization before Sept. 1 — even on a minor league deal — he can be eligible for that team’s postseason roster. (If he’s not on the 40-man at the time, he’d technically need to be a replacement for an injured player on the postseason roster, but such exceptions happen multiple times quite literally every season.)

As for Neely, he’ll be making his big league debut the first time he takes the mound in a Cubs uniform. The 24-year-old righty was the Yankees’ 11th-round pick in 2021 and has emerged as a legitimate bullpen prospect, brandishing a prototypical fastball/slider combination that’s helped him pitch to a combined 2.42 ERA with a whopping 38% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk rate in 48 1/3 innings across the Double-A and Triple-A levels with the Cubs and Yanks this year.

MLB.com ranks Neely 18th among Chicago farmhands, while FanGraphs pegs him 22nd. The towering 6’8″, 245-pound Neely sits around 95 mph with his heater — and likely looks faster than that, given the extension his massive frame generates. FanGraphs credits him with a plus (60-grade) slider, while MLB.com’s report tabs it as a true plus-plus (70-grade) pitch — noting the massive whiff and chase rates that Neely generated on the pitch late in the 2023 season.

Neely won’t gain a full year of big league service in 2024, of course, so the Cubs will control him for at least six full seasons following the current campaign. Even if he’s in the majors for good, Neely can’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2027-28 offseason and wouldn’t hit free agency until the 2030-31 offseason. His contract is only just now being selected to the 40-man roster, however, meaning he’ll likely retain a full slate of three minor league option years beyond the current season. As such, future optional assignments could impact his arbitration and free agent timelines. For now, he’ll simply focus on carrying his excellent upper-minors work over to the big leagues and establishing himself as a credible major league bullpen weapon.

Austin Riley Diagnosed With Fractured Hand

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The Braves announced Monday that Austin Riley has been diagnosed with a fractured right hand that will sideline him for six to eight weeks. With just under six weeks remaining on the regular season schedule, it could very well prove to be a season-ending injury for the two-time All-Star. Riley was hit by a pitch in yesterday’s game, and while initial imaging was inconclusive, an MRI performed Monday revealed the fracture. Atlanta will presumably make a corresponding roster move to place Riley on the injured list and bring up another infielder (e.g. Nacho Alvarez Jr.).

Atlanta also announced that right-hander Reynaldo Lopez has been reinstated from the injured list, with right-hander Jimmy Herget being optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett in his place. He’s been out since Aug. 2 due to inflammation in his right forearm.

The loss of Riley is another crushing blow for a Braves club that has been hammered by major injuries all season. Even on Opening Day, Atlanta lost catcher Sean Murphy to an oblique strain that ultimately cost him about two months of the season. That set the tone for a 2024 campaign that has seen Spencer Strider (torn UCL and internal brace surgery), Ronald Acuna Jr. (torn ACL), Ozzie Albies (fractured wrist), A.J. Minter (hip surgery) and Michael Harris II (Grade 2 hamstring strain) all endure considerable, if not season-ending injuries.

Riley, 27, hasn’t been at his best all season but has, until now, been in the lineup nearly every day. He’s also picked up the pace considerably since a dreadful start to the season. Riley lugged an awful .228/.295/.353 slash into the month of June … and has since erupted with a .275/.339/.531 that falls right in line with his career averages. In a lineup that’s frequently been without some of its best hitters, he’s been a constant alongside designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. Now, it’s very possible that Riley’s 2024 season will draw to a close with 110 games played — although the specific wording of the team’s announcement leaves the door cracked for Riley to perhaps play a few games late in September if he heals more quickly than expected and the Braves are still in Wild Card contention.

In some ways, the fact that the Braves are even still in possession of a Wild Card spot is remarkable. Strider pitched in just two games and yielded seven runs in nine innings prior to landing on the shelf with what became a season-ending ligament injury. Acuna played in only 49 games. Acuna, Albies (90), Harris (72) and Murphy (50) have all played in fewer than 100 of the Braves’ 124 games this season.

While the Braves have had exceedingly poor injury luck, they’ve also had several things go right. Atlanta has improbably gotten not only a healthy season out of Chris Sale but a vintage, Cy Young-caliber showing out of the 35-year-old lefty, who’s thrown just 10 fewer innings this season than he did in the entire four-year period preceding the 2024 season. Right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach has debuted and outpaced expectations. Reynaldo Lopez has improbably gone from reliever to Cy Young-caliber results himself.

Still, the loss of Riley is a gut-punch, particularly given how well he’d been hitting since the calendar flipped to June. The top of the Braves’ order will now need to rely on the aforementioned Ozuna, deadline pickup Jorge Soler and a trio of stars who’ve struggled through down seasons: Harris, Murphy and Matt Olson. Atlanta has gotten solid production out of some bargain-bin pickups like Ramon Laureano and Whit Merrifield, but the offense they’re trotting out on a nightly basis moving forward won’t resemble the powerhouse lineup they were expected to field this season.

Riley will likely be replaced by some combination of Alvarez and Luke Williams, neither of whom has looked comfortable against big league pitching this season. Alvarez, the organization’s top position-player prospect, still has just 38 games of Triple-A experience. He’s hit well there, but the 21-year-old went 3-for-30 in his first taste of the majors earlier in the summer and likely still needs some additional development time. He’d never played above A-ball prior to 2024. Williams is 2-for-17 in the majors this season. The 28-year-old journeyman has seen action in parts of four big league campaigns and is a .218/.277/.284 hitter in 283 trips to the plate.

At seven games back and now down another star player, Atlanta doesn’t have much of a path to overtaking the Phillies for the NL East crown. The Braves currently hold the final NL Wild Card spot but are only two games up on the division-rival Mets and four games up on the Giants. The Cardinals, Cubs and Reds are all within six games of that final postseason slot as well.

Diamondbacks Place Ketel Marte On Injured List

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The Diamondbacks announced that second baseman Ketel Marte has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a sprained left ankle. Infielder/outfielder Pavin Smith has been recalled as the corresponding move.

Marte has been battling an ankle injury for over a week now. Last Saturday, when playing the Phillies, catcher Garrett Stubbs slid into second while trying for a hustle double. Marte received the throw coming in from left field and tried to apply a tag to Stubbs when the two collided but his leg got stuck awkwardly underneath the Philly catcher (video from MLB.com).

Arizona’s second baseman was removed from that game in obvious pain but has tried to play through the injury since then. He was in the lineup for last Monday’s game but appeared to be in pain again and was removed from that contest. He then missed a few days but returned to the lineup on Saturday, serving as the designated hitter. Yesterday, he wasn’t in the starting lineup but entered as a pinch-hitter but appeared to aggravate his injury on a check swing and was removed before finishing his at-bat.

After those failed attempts to stay on the field, he will now spend at least ten days on the shelf. Manager Torey Lovullo doesn’t seem too concerned, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com on X, saying that they believe it’s a low-grade sprain and that Marte just needs some rest. Whether he needs to miss more than the 10-day minimum or not remains to be seen, but it’s a huge blow to the Diamondbacks regardless as Marte has been putting himself into the MVP conversation with a stellar season.

Marte has 30 home runs this year and a 10.4% walk rate, while limiting his strikeouts to a 17.8% clip. His .298/.370/.560 batting line translates to a 152 wRC+, indicating he’s been 52% better than league average at the plate. Only ten qualified major leaguers have a better mark than that this year. He’s also stolen six bases and received strong grades for his defense at the keystone. Only six players have more wins above replacement than his 5.4 this year, per FanGraphs. Francisco Lindor and Shohei Ohtani are the only two National League players ahead of him there.

Subtracting that kind of production would hurt any team, but the Snakes also have Christian Walker and Gabriel Moreno on the injured list at the moment, meaning they head into this week without three of their best regulars.

The D’backs have been playing very well of late and currently sport a record of 69-56. They are only four games back of the Dodgers in the West and have possession of the second National League Wild Card spot, but teams like Atlanta, the Mets and others are in striking distance. The Snakes will be trying to stay ahead of that pack in the coming weeks but will be doing so without Marte, Walker or Moreno on the roster, and it’s unclear when any of those three could be returning to the club.

Kevin Newman has been playing a lot of second base in Marte’s stead in the past week and may continue doing so. He’s a solid defender but has hit .262/.305/.361 in his career for a 78 wRC+. His .281/.314/.382 batting line this year is slightly better but still translates to a subpar 92 wRC+.

Smith’s recall is likely just about giving the club an extra bat, as he’s only played first base and the outfield in his career. Blaze Alexander is likely the club’s current backup at the three positions to the left of first base, supporting Newman, Geraldo Perdomo and Eugenio Suárez.

Reds Place Hunter Greene On 15-Day Injured List

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9:10 pm: After tonight’s game, Reds manager David Bell said Greene’s MRI looked encouraging (per Goldsmith). While he added that it was too soon to offer a timeline for Greene’s return, the skipper seemed optimistic his ace could be back on the mound once his minimum 15-day stint on the IL is up.

7:51 pm: The Reds have placed All-Star starting pitcher Hunter Greene on the 15-day injured list with right elbow soreness, the team announced. The club did not make a corresponding move before tonight’s game against the Royals at Great American Ball Park.

Greene, 25, was utterly dominant in his last start, holding the Cardinals to four hits and one run over seven innings. He struck out eight and walked only one. However, he reportedly felt soreness in his elbow following the outing (per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The pain temporarily went away, but it returned while he was playing catch today. President of baseball operations Nick Krall told Goldsmith that the IL stint is precautionary as of right now, and Greene will need an MRI before the team can decide on any next steps.

The young flamethrower underwent Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in 2018. While his elbow has remained healthy since then, Greene spent several weeks on the IL with a shoulder strain in 2022 and hip soreness in 2023. At long last, it seemed like 2024 would be the year he put everything together. His star potential has long been evident, but he was finally enjoying star-caliber results, with a 2.83 ERA through a career-high 143 1/3 innings pitched. Unfortunately, his excellent season has now been put on hold. It’s unclear how serious the issue might be, but it’s naturally worrisome when a hard-throwing pitcher with a history of UCL problems goes on the IL with elbow pain.

With Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson on the 60-day IL, Cincinnati’s starting depth is already quite thin. Other starters on the 40-man roster include Connor Phillips and Lyon Richardson, but Phillips was sent to the Reds’ training complex in June amid tremendous struggles at Triple-A (10.11 ERA in 14 GS), while Richardson has recently been pitching out of the bullpen at Triple-A amid a difficult season of his own (4.58 ERA in 23 G).

Thus, the Reds will likely need to add a pitcher to the 40-man roster to start in Greene’s place on Monday. They already have an open spot to do so. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com names 23-year-old right-hander Julian Aguiar and 31-year-old right-hander Connor Overton as potential options, but he notes that the team is not planning to promote 22-year-old righty Rhett Lowder, one of the organization’s top prospects, from Double-A.

Red Sox, Rich Hill In Agreement On Minor League Deal

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Today: The Red Sox and Rich Hill have formally agreed on a minor league deal, reports Ian Browne of MLB.com. The veteran will report to Triple-A Worcester on Tuesday.

August 15: The Red Sox and Rich Hill are close to finalizing a minor league contract, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI (X link). It’d be his fourth separate stint in Boston if he gets to the big leagues by the end of the season. Including minor league deals, it’ll be his eighth contract with the organization.

Those have spanned multiple front offices going as far back as 2010. Hill is a Boston-area native who is clearly comfortable with the organization. Staying close to home is appealing. Hill waited to sign until this late in the season in large part so he could coach his son’s Little League team in Milton, Massachusetts this spring.

While he won’t step directly onto the Sox roster, Hill could make a few appearances with Triple-A Worcester to get into game shape. It’d be a surprise if the Red Sox don’t call him up at some point before season’s end. Hill reportedly drew attention from the Yankees, Dodgers and Twins, among others, during his recent throwing sessions.

Boston is a sensible fit beyond the geographical connection. The Red Sox went into deadline season with questions about their rotation depth. They brought in James Paxton in a trade with the Dodgers. He only made it through three starts before suffering a partially torn right calf that’ll probably end his season. That temporarily left the Sox with a four-man rotation of Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck. The Sox are planning to reinstate Cooper Criswell from the virus-related injured list to start tomorrow against the Orioles. He’s likely to step into the fifth starter role, but he’d been working in relief for a couple weeks before going on the shelf. The Red Sox may want to keep a close eye on his pitch counts.

From the start of the season, the Sox’s rotation depth has been one of their biggest questions. They lost Lucas Giolito before the year started. Garrett Whitlock went down in April with an oblique issue. He hurt his elbow while building back up and underwent season-ending surgery. Houck, Crawford, Pivetta and Criswell all stepped up as the Sox had a surprisingly strong rotation for the first few months. They’ve had a much tougher time of late.

Red Sox starters have a 5.28 earned run average since the All-Star Break, a better mark only than that of the Angels, White Sox, Rockies and Rangers. Crawford and Pivetta have gotten battered by the home run ball. Houck’s strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff as he’s gotten to a career-high workload. Only Bello has maintained or improved upon his early-season production.

Hill isn’t going to single-handedly salvage the group. The 44-year-old southpaw turned in solid back-of-the-results from 2021-22. He had a tougher time last year, allowing a 5.41 ERA through 146 1/3 innings. Much of that came in a dismal 10 outings for the Padres after they acquired him at the deadline. Hill had a more reasonable 4.76 ERA in 22 starts for the Pirates before the trade. The Sox will hope they get something closer to last year’s first half version without Hill needing to work a full season. If he gets to the majors, he could potentially work as a tandem starter with Criswell or push the righty back into a multi-inning relief capacity.

It has been an atypical situation. Hill has floated the possibility of a late-season signing for a few years but hadn’t committed to it until last offseason. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo writes that the 19-year veteran declined major league offers from Texas, Pittsburgh and Oakland over the winter. Beyond the family considerations, he pointed to the opportunity to ensure he was joining a team that had a chance to compete for a playoff position. Boston is 2.5 games behind the Royals for the American League’s final Wild Card spot with six weeks to play.

Hill would be eligible for postseason play if the Sox qualify (assuming the contract is finalized shortly). That’s true regardless of whether he’s on the MLB roster by the end of the month. A player only needs to be in the organization at the start of September — not on the 40-man roster — to be eligible for the playoffs. The league office routinely allows players who were on minor league deals at the start of September to qualify for the playoffs as substitutes for another injured player.

Image courtesy of USA Today.

Rockies Release Elias Diaz, Promote Drew Romo

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3:10pm: The Rockies announced that Diaz has been given his unconditional release. He’s a free agent who can sign with any club at any point. Romo’s contract has indeed been selected from Triple-A Albuquerque in his place.

Colorado also reinstated left-hander Lucas Gilbreath from the 60-day injured list. A spot on the 40-man roster was already cleared by yesterday’s outright of Josh Rogers. Gilbreath has been out since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2023.

1:55pm: In place of Diaz, the Rockies are expected to select the contract of catching prospect Drew Romo, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. He’ll presumably slot into the Rockies’ primary catching role down the stretch and audition for a potential long-term gig behind the plate in Denver.

1:45pm: The Rockies are releasing catcher Elias Diaz, whom they placed on outright waivers earlier this week, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. Once he’s cleared release waivers, he’ll be free to sign with any club. The new team would only owe Diaz the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster or injured list. The Rockies will be on the hook for the remainder of this season’s $6MM salary.

That Diaz is slated to be released is an indicator that no other club was willing to take on his remaining $1.45MM salary (plus the $50K fee for placing a waiver claim). Colorado could’ve simply kept Diaz on the roster and attempted to waive him again later this month when he was owed less money, but it seems they’ll instead part ways with the veteran backstop entirely, granting him extra time to settle in with a contending club down the stretch. Diaz had been in the final season of a three-year, $14.5MM contract with the Rockies and is a free agent at season’s end anyhow, so the move to release him appears to primarily be about affording him the ability to latch on with a contending club while also clearing time for a look at Romo.

Releasing Diaz now will naturally raise questions as to why the Rockies didn’t move Diaz for even a modest return at last month’s trade deadline. It’s a fair gripe on the surface, although it stands to reason that if Diaz went unclaimed when he’d cost other teams around $1.5MM in total, there probably wasn’t a robust trade market for him when he was owed more money and the Rockies were seeking prospect value in return.

It’s still plenty arguable that the Rox should’ve sold high on him at last year’s trade deadline or perhaps in the offseason, but the Rox instead added some modest pieces and entered this year with visions of a more competitive club than they’ve ultimately fielded.

Diaz, 33, is hitting .270/.315/.378 on the season. That’s a solid-looking line, particularly for a catcher, though metrics like wRC+ (80) and OPS+ (88) feel he’s been below-average at the plate after adjusting for the Rockies’ hitter-friendly home environment. Either of those marks is passable for a backstop with solid defensive grades, however, and Diaz is just that. He’s delivered markedly improved framing grades in 2024 and been credited with plus marks in Defensive Runs Saved (5) and Outs Above Average (5).

Diaz has never been a plus hitter outside of a strong 2018 showing with the Pirates, but he owns a .254/.306/.406 line over the past four seasons, during which he’s averaged 17 homers per 162 games played. He’s not an elite catcher but is a serviceable option who’s had his share of big league success and experience. At the very least, he’s an upgrade over the backup option for many postseason hopefuls. And as long as he signs with a new club on or before Aug. 31, he’ll be eligible for his new team’s postseason roster.

As for the 22-year-old Romo, he was the No. 35 overall pick by the Rockies back in 2020 and ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects as recently as the 2022-23 offseason. He’s considered to be a glove-first catcher but has shown more offense in the upper minors across the past two seasons, including a quality .297/.339/.499 batting line in a very hitter-friendly Albuquerque setting this season (103 wRC+).

Scouting reports at FanGraphs, Baseball America and other outlets praise the switch-hitting Romo as a plus defender with a plus arm but well below-average power. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen noted that Romo had some uncharacteristic throwing issues last year (19% caught-stealing rate), but he’s bounced back in a big way with a heartier 29% rate in 2024.

With Diaz released and fellow backstop Jacob Stallings also playing on an expiring contract, Romo ought to be given a full run as the team’s starting catcher. Colorado doesn’t have any other near-ready catching prospects — Hunter Goodman can catch some, but they’ve used him more in the outfield — and certainly doesn’t have another one with Romo’s defensive chops.

Romo and Goodman could potentially shoulder the workload behind the plate down the stretch, depending on what comes of Stallings, who’s hitting .266/.367/.457 in 216 plate appearances while playing on a one-year, $2MM contract. Speculatively speaking, if the Rox are comfortable with Goodman collecting more playing time behind the plate, they could make a similar move with Stallings to the one they’ve made with Diaz.

Tigers To Promote Jace Jung

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The Tigers are calling up top infield prospect Jace Jung from Triple-A Toledo, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. The 12th overall pick of the 2022 draft will make his major league debut tomorrow evening against the Yankees.

Jung joins what’ll be a suddenly younger Detroit infield. The Tigers are also bringing up deadline acquisition Trey Sweeney, a 2021 first-round pick whom they acquired in the Jack Flaherty deal. That duo will join rookie second baseman Colt Keith as the Tigers evaluate young players who could be key pieces of next year’s team. Keith has had an up-and-down debut campaign at the keystone, as he’s had very poor months of April, June, and August around huge performances in May and July.

Once Detroit moved Keith from third to second base, they slid Jung to the hot corner. He has started 68 games there this season against 17 starts at second base, which had been his primary position at Texas Tech and for his first two years in pro ball. Detroit has used Gio Urshela as their primary third baseman. His bat has started to come around following a rough first half, but the Tigers seem to be turning their attention toward next season. Despite an ongoing four-game win streak, they’re 7.5 back of the American League’s last playoff spot.

Jung, the younger brother of Rangers third baseman Josh Jung, adds a high-upside offensive talent. He ranks fourth among Detroit prospects and 75th overall on Baseball America’s most recent ranking of the farm system. BA credits the left-handed hitter with plus power and a patient approach. While there’s some concern about his pure hit tool, the walks and power give him a chance to hit in the middle third of a lineup.

The 23-year-old is having a nice season in Toledo. He’s hitting .257/.377/.454 with 14 homers, 23 doubles and a triple through 415 plate appearances. Jung is drawing walks at a massive 16.1% clip while striking out at a roughly average 22.4% rate. While he has fallen into a bit of a slump of late, Jung has hit very well with the platoon advantage over the course of the season. He’s hitting .272/.402/.510 in 321 plate appearances against righty pitching.

Jung has predictably had a tougher time with left-handed arms. Detroit has a few righty-hitting infielders who could take some starts against southpaws, but Jung figures to play regularly over the season’s final six weeks. Urshela is on a one-year free agent deal and always felt like a bridge until Jung was ready to take over at third base. The Tigers should give him near everyday reps to gauge whether they can pencil him in as their starter going into 2025.

Jung will not come close to a full year of service or the time necessary to reach early arbitration as a Super Two player. He’s under team control for at least six seasons beyond this one and won’t get to arbitration for three years. A future optional assignment to Triple-A could push that timeline back.

The timing of Jung’s promotion, likely not coincidentally, comes just after the cutoff for him to preserve his rookie eligibility going into next season. From tomorrow, there’ll be 45 days remaining on the regular season calendar. A position player remains a rookie so long as they’ve spent 45 days or fewer on an MLB active roster and have not topped 130 at-bats. So long as the Tigers keep him below the at-bat threshold, Jung would be eligible for Rookie of the Year consideration going into next season.

That’s a relevant factor thanks to the Prospect Promotion Incentive introduced in the most recent round of collective bargaining. A team can earn a bonus draft pick if they carry a rookie top prospect (one who made the offseason Top 100 on at least two of the lists at Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline) for a full service year. If that player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three in MVP balloting during his pre-arbitration seasons, the team would get an extra pick after the first round of the following draft.

Jung could be in consideration for the prospect criteria, as evidenced by his placement on BA’s current Top 100. There’s no guarantee he’ll make two of the three lists next winter — and it’s certainly not a lock that he’ll win Rookie of the Year — but the Tigers would at least keep the possibility open if they plan for Jung to break camp in 2025. The Cardinals timed their promotion of top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn right at this time last season, for instance.

Sweeney isn’t the same caliber of prospect, but Detroit could give him a look at shortstop in place of the struggling Javier Báez. They’ll need to add both players to the active and 40-man rosters. They don’t have any obvious candidates to land on the 60-day injured list, so they might need to designate multiple players for assignment tomorrow.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Christian Yelich To Undergo Season-Ending Back Surgery

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Christian Yelich is out for the season. The Brewers’ star outfielder announced (on X) that he’ll undergo surgery to address a back injury tomorrow. In a statement provided by the team, Yelich said he was hopeful of being 100% recovered for the 2025 season.

For the past month, it has been a near inevitability that Yelich was headed for surgery. He went on the 10-day injured list the week before the trade deadline after playing through lower back discomfort. Yelich visited a spine specialist and initially tried a non-surgical rehab that’d allow him to delay the procedure until the offseason. The hope was to get healthy enough to be able to contribute to the Brewers’ pennant push before more definitively addressing the problem at year’s end.

As Yelich explained today, the injury “wasn’t getting better” over the past few weeks. He added that he “ran out of options” that would allow him to make it back this season. The former MVP understandably expressed disappointment that he won’t be able to contribute on the field but indicated he’d remain around the team while they attempt to lock down a second consecutive NL Central title (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

It’s a tough end to what was shaping up as Yelich’s best season in a few years. He was utterly dominant during his first two years in Milwaukee, following up an MVP campaign in 2018 with a runner-up finish in ’19. Yelich paced the Senior Circuit in OPS both seasons. His production dropped sharply after that. From 2020-23, he was a solid but not elite hitter. Yelich remained a good player who appeared to be on the decline coming into this year, his age-32 season.

He completely flipped that script with a monster first half. Yelich raked at a .315/.406/.504 clip across 315 plate appearances. He homered 11 times and stole 21 bases while being thrown out just once. The three-time Silver Slugger Award winner cut his strikeout rate to 18.4%, the lowest of his Brewers tenure, while drawing walks at an excellent 12.4% clip. Even if he wasn’t quite back to an MVP level, Yelich was an easy call to start for the National League in the All-Star Game.

Among hitters with 300+ plate appearances, Yelich is fifth in average and fourth in on-base percentage. He’s within the top 20 in slugging output. His overall offensive production was 53 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s quite comfortably tops on the team and 13th in the majors overall (with that 300 PA minimum). Yelich’s rate production sits between that of Rafael Devers and Ketel Marte.

Milwaukee isn’t going to be able to replace that kind of output. They were aware that Yelich might not make it back by the deadline. The front office reportedly sought a left-handed bat who could offer some punch against righty pitching but ultimately didn’t find a deal to their liking. Their deadline acquisitions ended up being exclusively on the pitching side, as they brought in Frankie Montas and reliever Nick Mears (in addition to their early-July pickup of Aaron Civale). The Montas trade actually sacrificed a bit of outfield depth since they sent Joey Wiemer to Cincinnati, though Wiemer wasn’t playing well enough in Triple-A to take on a meaningful role in Milwaukee.

Star rookie Jackson Chourio has moved to left field in Yelich’s absence. The 20-year-old is on a tear after a slow start to his debut campaign. Chourio has hit over .300 in each of the past three months. He’s hitting .274/.320/.441 on the season and has a massive .320/.368/.510 slash going back to June 1. Sal Frelick is having a decent year in right field, hitting .259/.333/.331 with above-average defensive grades. Former first-round pick Garrett Mitchell is back from injury to handle center field duties.

It’s still an extremely talented outfield, but any lineup would be much improved with Yelich in the middle of the order. The injury shouldn’t stop the Brewers from making the postseason. At 69-52, they’ve built a comfortable nine-game cushion in the NL Central. Milwaukee is in a tight battle for one of the top two seeds in the National League and the accompanying first-round bye. They’re a game and a half behind the Phillies and Dodgers, who are separated by percentage points for the NL’s best record.

Yelich remains a foundational piece for the Brew Crew in the long term. He’s under contract at $26MM annually for four seasons beyond this one. The team holds a $20MM option for the ’29 campaign. Yelich has dealt with intermittent back issues dating back to his first few seasons with the Marlins. The surgery will hopefully prevent that from being a major concern as he nears his mid-30s.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Do Not Intend To Trade Sandy Alcantara In Offseason

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The Marlins have informed Sandy Alcantara that they will not trade him during the upcoming offseason, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). Mish writes that the Fish are hopeful that the 2022 NL Cy Young winner will be ready to take the ball for them on Opening Day.

Alcantara missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. That was the first major blow in what has turned out to be a very difficult 12 months at loanDepot Park. Eury Pérez went down with a Tommy John procedure of his own a week into the ’24 season. The Marlins got 12 inconsistent starts out of Jesús Luzardo; his season is over due to a stress reaction in his back. A finger injury has interrupted what might have been a step forward from Ryan Weathers. Lefty Braxton Garrett is currently down with a flexor strain and has made all of seven starts. Edward Cabrera lost a couple months in the first half.

A rotation with a fully healthy Alcantara, Luzardo, Pérez, Garrett and Weathers would probably be a top 10 group in MLB. The Marlins have instead lost them all for significant chunks of the season. Between that brutal stretch of starting pitching injuries and one of the worst lineups in the majors, the Marlins have had a nightmare of a year. They started 0-9, never got back to .500, and are fully amidst a rebuild. Miami shipped out Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan De La Cruz and a few others as part of a roster overhaul. First-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has begun to reshape the front office, and it’s widely believed that manager Skip Schumaker and the organization could part ways at season’s end.

That upheaval means there aren’t many players whom the Marlins would probably steadfastly refuse to discuss in trade talks. That said, it never seemed especially likely they’d deal Alcantara next winter. He’s rehabbing a major arm procedure that at least clouds his trade value. While there’d surely still be interest if the Marlins shopped him, other teams would presumably want to price in some kind of discount in case Alcantara doesn’t regain his pre-surgery form.

There’s little reason for the Marlins to entertain diminished trade offers. Miami signed Alcantara to a $56MM extension the year before his Cy Young campaign. He’s under contract for another two seasons and the team holds an option for 2027. Alcantara is making $9MM this year. His salaries will jump to $17MM annually for the next two seasons; the option is valued at $21MM and comes with a $2MM buyout. (He’d also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if the Marlins trade him at any point.) From here forward, it’s a two-year, $36MM guarantee that comes with a third-year club option.

Despite the surgery, that’s good value for a pitcher of Alcantara’s caliber. Bounceback starters like Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Luis Severino signed for between $13MM and $16MM in free agency last offseason. They all inked one-year deals, but that allowed them all to retest free agency in search of a much bigger contract if they returned to form. Alcantara is coming from a higher baseline than that trio of pitchers. If he looks anything like his old self, the final guaranteed season and the club option would be well below market value.

It’s a relatively costly commitment by Miami’s standards, but the Marlins have little else on the books next year. They owe the already released Avisaíl García $17MM between his $12MM salary and a $5MM buyout on his 2026 option. They’re responsible for $10MM annually to the Yankees between 2026-28 on the Giancarlo Stanton contract. Minor league reliever Woo-Suk Go, who is owed $2.75MM next season between his salary and a ’26 option buyout, is the only other player on a guaranteed deal beyond this season.

Luzardo, Jesús Sánchez and Garrett headline what’ll be a relatively light arbitration class. The Fish aren’t likely to do much in free agency after spending all of $5MM last winter on a one-year deal for Tim Anderson. Even with Alcantara’s salary rising by $8MM, they could open next season with a lower player payroll than their approximate $92MM mark this year (calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts).

If Alcantara performs well in the first half, he could be one of the most in-demand players at next summer’s deadline. Even if all their starters come back healthy, Miami will be hard-pressed to compete barring a major lineup overhaul. The Marlins still may not want to move Alcanatara with the amount of time remaining on his deal, but that’d be a more interesting question for the front office than it would to sell low on him over the offseason.

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