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Kodai Senga To Start NLDS Game One For Mets

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TODAY: The Mets made Senga’s return official when announcing their NLDS roster this morning.  Senga was activated from the 60-day IL and Megill was also added to the 26-man roster that will face the Phillies.  Right-handers Huascar Brazoban and Max Kranick were removed from the Wild Card Series roster to make room for Senga and Megill, and Blackburn was moved to the 60-day IL in the corresponding 40-man move for Senga.

OCTOBER 4: The Mets are facing off against the Phillies in the National League Division Series, with the first game set for Saturday afternoon. Manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters today that right-hander Kodai Senga will start that first game for the Mets. Mike Puma of The New York Post was among those to relay the news on X.

The Mets have received close to nothing from Senga this year. He suffered a capsule strain in his throwing shoulder in Spring Training, which kept him on the injured list for months. He was reinstated off the injured list and made his season debut on July 26, but was removed from that game after 5 1/3 innings due to a calf strain and went right back on the IL. He tried to return late in the regular season but was slowed by some triceps soreness.

That lack of production from Senga was a blow to the Mets. He made his major league debut in 2023 and tossed 166 1/3 innings with a 2.98 earned run average. His 11.1% walk rate was on the high side but he struck out 29.1% of batters faced and got grounders at a 44.7% clip. Despite that, the Mets managed to squeak into the postseason and then defeat the Brewers in the Wild Card series while Senga remained on the IL.

Yesterday, Will Sammon of Athletic reported that the Mets were considering Senga for their NLDS roster. Now it seems that the righty will not only get a roster spot but will take the ball to get the series started.

The question will be what the Mets can expect from Senga after so much time off. Per Sammon’s report, he recently threw a 25-pitch bullpen session but will probably be limited to a short outing, so perhaps this will be Senga acting more as an opener than a true starter in the classically understood sense. “We’ll see,” Mendoza said today when asked about how long Senga can go, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. “We’re going to let it play out.”

The Mets have had to get creative with their pitching staff lately. Two of their games against Atlanta in the final week of the regular season were delayed by Hurricane Helene. While 28 of the 30 clubs in the league had the day off on Monday, those two clubs had to play a double-header as each still needed a victory to get into the playoffs. The Mets won the first game in an 8-7 thriller, using Tylor Megill as the starter and then four relievers, including closer Edwin Díaz throwing 40 pitchers as he got the final five outs.

With their playoff spot secured, they used Joey Lucchesi and two relievers to get through the second game of the twin bill, but then they had to start their series in Milwaukee the very next day. Luis Severino started the first game, Sean Manaea the second and Jose Quintana the third. To get through last night’s game, Díaz threw another 39 pitches while again getting five outs and starter David Peterson also tossed an inning of relief.

None of the club’s front three of Severino, Manaea or Quintana would be available on regular rest for Saturday’s first game against Philadelphia. Megill would be an option to take some bulk innings, but he was left off the Wild Card roster since he wasn’t going to be available for those contests. If both Senga and Megill are to be added, the Mets would have to open two spots by leaving off a couple of guys that were present of the Wild Card round. Peterson could perhaps be another option for bulk innings, as he tossed seven innings as recently as September 29.

The full roster decisions don’t have to be publicly announced until Saturday morning. Senga is on the 60-day IL and will need to be added back onto the 40-man roster, but the Mets could easily open a spot by transferring Paul Blackburn or Dedniel Núñez onto the 60-day IL. The Phillies have announced that Zack Wheeler will start game one, followed by Cristopher Sánchez in game two.

Joe Musgrove To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove has suffered damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow and will undergo Tommy John surgery, per general manager A.J. Preller. Alden González of ESPN was among those to relay the announcement on X. The club hasn’t provided a timeline but Musgrove is sure to miss the entire 2025 season, given that recovery from Tommy John surgery generally takes 14 months or longer.

The news isn’t totally surprising, as Musgrove has been battling elbow issues all year, but it’s still rough for the righty and the club. By the end of May he was already on the injured list for the second time this year, both of those stints due to right elbow inflammation. In early June, it was reported that he had a bone spur in that elbow, which eventually kept him out of action until August.

He had struggled earlier in the season but finished strong. By the time of that second IL stint, he had made ten starts but with a 5.66 earned run average in that time. After returning in August, he posted a 2.15 ERA in seven starts down the stretch. He struck out 29.1% of opponents and walked 4.1% in that stretch run.

It seemed he was in strong form and set to be a key part of the club’s postseason staff. After Michael King shoved in the first game of the club’s Wild Card series against Atlanta, Musgrove was given the ball for the second contest. He struck out four opponents without issuing a walk through 3 2/3 innings but then departed the game with members of the training staff, having thrown just 44 pitches. The Friars later announced his issue as elbow tightness.

The Padres managed to win that game and move on to face the Dodgers in the Division Series, but manager Mike Shildt announced earlier today that Musgrove wouldn’t be appearing in the series. Shildt stopped short of making any declarations beyond that, but it’s now clear that Musgrove’s injury will impact far more than just the NLDS.

In the short term, the Padres will try to navigate the postseason without Musgrove. They have King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish as their best rotation options, with Martín Pérez and Matt Waldron also possibilities to contribute.

They will also have to get through the entire 2025 season without Musgrove, which should make starting pitching an offseason priority again. Darvish is still under contract while both King and Cease can be retained via arbitration for one more season before they are slated to reach free agency after 2025. Pérez is an impending free agent but Waldron is still in his pre-arbitration years.

Cease, King, Darvish and Waldron is a decent foursome but the club will presumably look to bolster that group. A lack of starting pitching depth was a notable storyline going into last winter, which prompted the club to target that in the Juan Soto trade. When they flipped Soto to the Yankees, they brought back King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped to the White Sox as part of the deal to get Cease.

Brito was mostly used in relief this year. Vásquez made 20 starts but with a 4.87 ERA and tepid 14.4% strikeout rate. He also struggled badly in the minors, posting an 8.21 ERA in Triple-A. Perhaps someone like Adrián Morejón could be stretched out after his solid year in the bullpen, but there would be risk with his notable injury history.

Budgetary concerns were a notable factor for the Padres last winter as well. The club’s streaming deal with Diamond Sports Group had collapsed in 2023, forcing MLB to take over the broadcast as the club received less revenue in that department. That led to the Padres dealing Soto and ducking under the competitive balance tax.

RosterResource pegs San Diego’s 2025 CBT number at $184MM, well south of next year’s $241MM base threshold. However, that number doesn’t account for contracts for arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects San Diego’s eight-player class for a total of $46.7MM. A few non-tenders could drop that number but most of it is going to core players like King, Cease and Luis Arráez, so the Padres are probably more accurately slated to be in the $230MM range before making any offseason moves.

Preller will have to address the departures of impending free agents like Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano and Kyle Higashioka. If the budget is tight again, he might have to get creative in the winter, which wouldn’t be unusual for him. He is one of baseball’s most active decision makers and is seemingly always involved in all free agent and trade talks. With this news, he will have one more item on his to-do list. Musgrove is under contract through 2027 and is making $20MM annually as part of the five-year, $100MM extension he and the club signed in 2022.

Braves Expect To Exercise Club Options On Ozuna, Bummer, d’Arnaud

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The Braves are planning to exercise their 2025 club options on designated hitter Marcell Ozuna, left-hander Aaron Bummer and catcher Travis d’Arnaud, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos implied as much at today’s end-of-season press conference, saying each has “put himself in a good spot.” All three had strong seasons — Ozuna in particular — so none of the decisions should register as a major surprise. Ozuna’s option calls for a $16MM salary next season, while Bummer will be paid $7.25MM and d’Arnaud $8MM.

Ozuna, 34 next month, slugged 39 home runs this season — the second-highest mark of his career — and turned in a robust .302/.378/.546 slash on the season. That production clocked in at a weighty 54% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+ (154). That’s the second-best mark of Ozuna’s career and his best mark in a full, 162-game campaign; his career-high 178 mark came during the shortened 2020 season. Dating back to 2023, Ozuna has clobbered 79 home runs for the Braves and played in all but 18 of their games.

Atlanta’s deadline acquisition of Jorge Soler makes the 2025 roster a bit clunky with Ozuna also in the fold. Both are nominal corner outfielders who are best deployed primarily as a designated hitter. The Braves plugged Soler into their injury-plagued outfield mix after acquiring him this summer, in hopes of bolstering a lineup that was missing Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II at the time.

Soler did just that, hitting .243/.356/.493 and clubbing nine homers in 193 plate appearances in his return to Atlanta, but he also posted brutal defensive marks in a third of a season of left field work (-10 Defensive Runs Saved, -6 Outs Above Average). With Soler signed through 2026, Atlanta could try to live with his defense for a year and then turn Ozuna’s DH slot over to Soler in 2026, but there will surely be at least some degree of trade chatter surrounding Soler this winter as well.

As for the other two option calls, both seemed obvious. Bummer was acquired from the White Sox last offseason and had a nice first year in his new environs, rebounding from a down year to provide 55 1/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball with even better underlying metrics. The 6’3″ southpaw punched out 28.3% of his opponents and issued walks at only a 7.4% clip — the second-lowest mark of his career. His 59.7% ground-ball rate, while lower than his mammoth 64.9% career mark, was still about 17 percentage points higher than the league average. Add in the fact that his option came with a $1.25MM buyout (effectively making it a net $6MM call) and that his contract also contains a $7.5MM club option for 2026, and there was never much doubt he’d be back in ’25.

Turning to the 35-year-old d’Arnaud (36 in February), he’ll be back for a sixth season at Truist Park after slashing .238/.302/.436 with 15 homers in 341 plate appearances. That’s only a bit better than league-average on a rate basis (103 wRC+), but it’s strong production relative to catchers throughout the league, who tend to be about 10% worse than average at the plate. It’s particularly stout production for a team’s No. 2 catcher, which is the role d’Arnaud will occupy with Sean Murphy still in the early stages of a six-year contract.

Injuries to Murphy expanded d’Arnaud’s workload this year, and he handled the increased usage reasonably well on both sides of the plate. His 19.1% caught-stealing rate was below par, but not by much, and his framing work was roughly average. Statcast credited him as slightly better than average when it comes to blocking balls in the dirt. As d’Arnaud enters his age-36 season, it’s always possible that his defensive skills could drop off sharply, but assuming better health from Murphy, d’Arnaud will probably also be asked to shoulder a smaller workload than 2024’s 706 innings.

The Braves hold a fourth club option as well — a $7MM option on right-hander Luke Jackson. Atlanta reacquired the longtime Brave alongside Soler in that deadline swap with the Giants. He pitched 18 innings with a 4.50 ERA and huge 31% strikeout rate … but also a 13.1% walk rate. Coupled with his time in San Francisco, he finished the season with a 5.09 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate in 53 innings.

Jackson’s option comes with a $2MM buyout, but even at a net $5MM price the Braves seem likely to move on. Atlanta has a deep (and expensive) bullpen featuring Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson and the aforementioned Bummer. That quartet alone will combine for $39.75MM in 2025 salary. The Braves will also see lefty Dylan Lee reach arbitration for the first time.

Tomoyuki Sugano Expected To Sign With MLB Team This Offseason

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Longtime Nippon Professional Baseball star Tomoyuki Sugano is planning to sign with an MLB team this offseason, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. After 12 years in NPB, Sugano more than meets the requirements (nine years of NPB service) to qualify for international free agency, so he will not be subject to the rules of the posting system.

Sugano, soon to be 35, is an eight-time NPB All-Star, two-time Central League MVP, and two-time winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award, given out annually to the best starting pitcher in NPB. After collecting his second MVP trophy in 2020, he was posted for MLB clubs and drew interest from several teams, including the Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, and Rangers. However, he did not sign before the deadline, choosing instead to re-up with the Yomiuri Giants on a four-year, $40MM deal. His contract gave him the option to opt out after every season to pursue international opportunities, and following the first year of the deal, he he had enough NPB service time that he would not have been restricted by the posting system. Nevertheless, he decided to stay with the Giants throughout the length of the contract.

One reason Sugano may have decided not to pursue international free agency after the 2021, ’22, or ’23 seasons was his declining performance. He was outstanding in 2020, pitching to a 1.97 ERA with a 24.6% strikeout rate over 137.1 innings. However, he had ERAs of 3.19, 3.12, and 3.36 the following three years. His strikeout rates slowly declined, while his home run rates shot up. Moreover, injuries limited him to just 77.2 IP in 2023. His performance from 2021-23 wasn’t poor by any means, but it’s understandable why he chose not to sacrifice his guaranteed salary.

The 2024 season marked a return to dominance for the Sugano. Over 156.2 IP, he went 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA. His 18.3% strikeout rate was lower than it was at his peak – he struck out 24.2% of batters from 2016-20 – but he is finding success in new ways as an older pitcher. His 2.6% walk rate in 2024 was a career-best. His 6.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio was his best since 2016. In addition, he gave up only six home runs to the 608 batters he faced, 0.99% home run rate. That’s the lowest home run rate of his career, and significantly lower than his 2.91% home run rate from 2021-23. As a cherry on top, Sugano also threw three complete games this past season. He hadn’t thrown a single complete game since 2021.

Now that the four-year contract he signed during the 2020-21 offseason is up, Sugano has little reason not to give an MLB career another try. According to reporter Francys Romero, the veteran has hired VC Sports Group to represent him in free agency. The starting pitching market will feature plenty of big names this offseason, including Corbin Burnes, Yusei Kikuchi, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and likely Blake Snell, who has a player option for 2025. Considering his age, Sugano won’t be looking for a long-term contract, so he could represent an interesting alternative for a team that wants to add a potential top-flight starting pitcher on a shorter deal.

Thad Levine Steps Down As Twins GM

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Thad Levine has stepped down from his position as senior vice president and general manager of the Twins, a role he has held since November 2016. The team announced his decision in a press release on Friday morning, explaining, “After eight seasons of significant contributions and leadership, Thad Levine will depart the Minnesota Twins organization to pursue new challenges and opportunities, both inside and outside of baseball.”

The news of Levine’s departure comes just a few days after the Twins confirmed chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli would return in 2025. Levine has been working under Falvey for the past eight years. The pair led the team to three division titles and four playoff appearances between 2017-23, with the 2023 club finally ending the franchise’s 18-game postseason losing streak.

The 2024 campaign ended in disappointment, however, with a 13-27 record over the final 40 games of the season pushing the Twins out of a playoff position and into fourth place in the AL Central. While injuries and underperformance played a big role in the team’s downfall, so did a slow offseason and quiet trade deadline, during which Falvey and Levine did little to improve the club. It’s difficult to say how much of the blame lies with the front office as opposed to ownership, which forced the team to cut payroll. Regardless, it’s not hard to see why Levine was ready to seek new opportunities elsewhere. It’s possible the Twins didn’t want him back either, but the press release presents it as Levine’s decision. Furthermore, one would think that if ownership and executive chairman Joe Pohlad were displeased with the direction of the team, Falvey would be looking for a new job as well. Both Falvey and Levine’s contacts were believed to be expiring at the end of the 2024 season.

Prior to joining the Twins, Levine spent several years as an assistant GM for the Rangers. More recently, he has pursued top decision-making jobs around the league; the Twins gave permission for him to interview with the Phillies in 2020 and the Red Sox in 2023. Other teams that have shown interest in Levine in the past include the Mets and Rockies. Interestingly, however, he ultimately took himself out of the running for all those jobs.

If Levine wants a new job in baseball, it doesn’t seem as if he’d have any trouble landing one. He will surely be a candidate for any “chief decision-maker” openings around the league. It’s less clear if he would be interested in taking on another job where he would only be second-in-command, such as with the Giants. San Francisco is looking for a GM to replace Pete Putila and work under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey. For what it’s worth, the fact that Levine chose to remain underneath Falvey for so long – despite other opportunities – suggests he prioritizes his work environment over his status. Perhaps the Giants’ larger payroll will convince him to give the Bay Area a try.

Reds Hire Terry Francona As Manager

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Today: The Reds made things official on Friday morning, confirming they signed Francona to a three-year contract with a team option for the 2028 season.

October 3: The Reds are hiring Terry Francona as their next manager, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The club has not yet confirmed the news, but Feinsand indicates an announcement is expected as soon as tomorrow. Per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Francona’s contract is a three-year deal.

Francona, 65, is among the most decorated managers in the league’s recent history. After a four-year stint managing the Phillies in the late 90s, Francona joined the Red Sox as manager prior to the 2004 season and piloted the club to their curse-breaking World Series championship in 2004. He went on to spend eight seasons in Boston, making the postseason in five of those years (including another World Series championship in 2007) while never posting a below-.500 season. He parted ways with the Red Sox prior to the 2011 season, however, and spent the next year away from managing with four top-5 finishes in AL Manager of the Year voting to his name in addition to a pair of World Series rings.

Terry Francona

He returned to managing just a year after departing Boston, however, and spent the next 11 seasons in Cleveland. Francona’s tenure with the club was nothing short of magnificent, as he piloted the small-market franchise into consistent contention despite considerable payroll restrictions. During Francona’s tenure as manager, Cleveland enjoyed postseason baseball in six seasons while rattling off eight consecutive winning seasons and even reaching Game 7 of the World Series in 2016.

While the club ultimately fell to the Cubs in extra innings and was unable to capture another AL pennant during Francona’s tenure, their 2017 campaign was almost as impressive in some ways as Francona led them through a 22-game win streak that’s the longest in AL history and second only to the 1916 New York Giants’ 26-game win streak in MLB history. Francona’s 11 seasons with Cleveland saw him win three Manager of the Year awards as he captured the honor in 2013, 2016, and most recently in 2022 when he piloted the Guardians to an unlikely AL Central division title and within one game of the club’s first ALCS since 2016.

Francona’s time with the Guardians came to an end when he stepped down following the 2023 season amid long-standing health issues. At the time of his departure from the manager’s chair, Francona indicated to reporters (including those at ESPN) that his priority for 2024 was to “go home and get healthy and see what I miss about the game.” Clearly, the veteran skipper has decided that he misses being at the helm of a big league dugout as he will now return to Ohio as manager of the Reds, his first NL job since departing the Phillies in 2000.

He joins up with Cincinnati following a disappointing season that saw the club take a step back from last year’s 82-80 effort with a 77-85 season despite major breakouts for both star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene. Injuries to key pieces like Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand likely played a role in the club’s struggles but whatever hopes the club may have for health-related improvement next year wasn’t enough to convince the front office to retain David Bell, who missed the playoffs in five of his six seasons with the Reds. The club’s managerial search reportedly included younger names such as former Cubs skipper David Ross and departing Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, but the Reds will instead lean on Francona’s decades of experience in order to turn things around for the organization.

With Francona now in place, the Reds have now addressed perhaps the biggest question mark facing them this winter as they look towards the offseason with plenty of other hurdles that will need to be addressed. Chief among those could be their TV revenue situation, as Diamond Sports is reportedly planning to cut ties with the club, which could leave their financial picture uncertain headed into 2025. That’s a frustrating situation for any club, but perhaps especially for a Reds team that already runs among the league’s lower payrolls and figures to lose Nick Martinez to the open market later this winter on the heels of an excellent 2024 campaign that saw him help shore up both the club’s rotation and bullpen throughout the year.

Offseason Outlook Articles Now Part Of Trade Rumors Front Office

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Many of you have noticed that our long-running Offseason Outlook series is now a part of our paid Trade Rumors Front Office service.

I understand this change has been jarring for some, and I apologize for not providing a heads up.  It is a permanent change, and next spring’s Offseason in Review series will be exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers as well.

Our traffic declined in 2023 for the first time in MLBTR’s history, and ad rates have been falling for roughly seven years.  I decided to create Trade Rumors Front Office in 2020 to close the gap on ad revenue that is no longer there.

Requiring a subscription to read the Offseason Outlook series was not a decision I made lightly.  These posts take roughly three hours each to write, and the majority of them receive modest traffic.  The ad revenue on the series was not close to covering the time required to produce it.  I take great pride in our work on the Offseason Outlook series, and I think it’s worth paying for.

We have a couple of other time-consuming major original offseason features  that also don’t pay for themselves, in our arbitration projections and our Top 50 Free Agents list.  I have no current plans to put those behind the paywall.

I think we add a lot of value to news posts as well, particularly on write-ups of major signings and trades.  News posts, which make up the vast majority of MLBTR, remain free.  A portion of our more time-consuming opinion-based analysis has been exclusive to subscribers for over four years now.  Other original work, such as our recent free agent preview by position, remains free to all.

It can be difficult to find a balance and make the math work.  If you’re here strictly for the news, that’s still free.  If you find value in our analysis and tools and have the means, then I hope you’ll consider a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.

I have not raised the price on Trade Rumors Front Office in four-plus years, even as we’ve continually added benefits.  It remains $29.89 per year.  Benefits include:

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Orioles General Manager Expects To Have Greater Payroll Capacity

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The Orioles were eliminated from the postseason by the Royals yesterday, sending them into offseason mode. General manager Mike Elias spoke to the members of the media today to address various topics related to the club. Most notably, he said that manager Brandon Hyde would return in 2025, though he was noncommittal about the rest of the coaching staff. Additionally, he said that he is “pretty confident” that payroll will be going up next year. Details were relayed by Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link) and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (X link).

It was another good season for Baltimore in a sense, as they won 91 games and made the playoffs for a second consecutive year. On the other hand, it was also disappointing for many fans. The O’s won 101 games in 2023 and had a seemingly endless supply of young talent, which set expectations fairly high coming into 2024. The club was strong for much of the 2024 season but limped to the finish line with 10 fewer wins than the year before, settling for a wild card berth. For a second straight year, they were quickly swept out of the postseason.

The disappointment will naturally lead to some finger pointing, though it seems Elias isn’t placing blame at Hyde’s feet. It’s always tough to discern whether a manager deserves credit and/or blame for a team’s performance and there were certainly things that were beyond the skipper’s control this year.

Rotation injuries were a key storyline for the O’s this year, as each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells each required UCL surgery in June. The club tried to address the rotation at the deadline by acquiring Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. The Eflin pickup worked out well, but Rogers struggled after the jersey swap and waas optioned down to the minors. The rotation issues were further compounded when Grayson Rodriguez hit the shelf with a lat injury in August, which eventually ended his season. Some players also just struggled as the season wore on, with Craig Kimbrel and Adley Rutschman being two prominent examples.

While Hyde’s contributions to the 2024 results can be debated, it seems Elias and the franchise have decided that a new skipper won’t be necessary. The club hasn’t been forthcoming about Hyde’s contractual status. It was reported in April of 2022 that Hyde was under contract beyond that season as part of an extension that was quietly worked out in 2020, but with few details available apart from that. He eventually won American League Manager of the Year honors for the 2023 season and stuck around for 2024. It’s unclear if that 2020 extension is still going or if the two sides have done another deal away from prying eyes, but it seems Hyde will be back in the dugout next year regardless.

Elias and his front office team will be tasked with building a roster that gives Hyde a chance to have a better finish in 2025. There will be some notable subtractions, as the O’s are set to lose ace Corbin Burnes and slugger Anthony Santander to free agency. The departure of Burnes will deprive them of a star who posted a 2.92 ERA over 32 starts, plus eight innings of one-run ball in the playoffs, while Santander’s exit takes a 44-homer bat out of the lineup.

The fact that Elias expects to have more financial resources to supplement the roster is good news, though it’s also not surprising. The Angelos family wasn’t investing much in the club during the final years of their reign. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, 2024 was the sixth straight year in which the club ran a bottom five payroll.

New owner David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club was officially approved by the league at the end of March and it’s generally been expected that he would ramp up spending from those recent low points. The aforementioned Eflin trade was perhaps a positive omen in that regard, as the righty is owed $18MM next year. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Kimbrel’s $13MM one-year pact is the largest deal given out since Elias took over as GM in November of 2018. Adding $18MM to next year’s budget, plus the roughly one third of Eflin’s $11MM salary in 2024 that was still to be paid out, could have been a signal that Rubenstein had signed off on giving Elias more spending power.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Elias is going to go out and spend like the proverbial drunken sailor. “We’ll see what happens,” the GM said in regards to the payroll question, per Jake Rill of MLB.com on X. “We’re going to be smart about it. And if it doesn’t happen for some reason, it’s not going to be because the financial support wasn’t there. It’s going to be because the people running this team thought it was the right thing to do from a number of levels on a case-by-case basis. But I want to reiterate that I don’t expect that to be the case.”

Ultimately, it may be something of a fresh start for Elias and his team. They have seemingly had very little financial resources to work with, which was fine for much of his tenure. He and the club were primarily focused on building a pipeline of young prospects and have succeeded. Just about every outlet has ranked them as having one of the top farm systems in recent years, if not the very top, which has allowed them to fill out their roster with young talent like Rutschman, Bradish, Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday and many more.

Some have argued that Elias should have had more willingness to trade that young talent as the club became competitive in recent years, particularly for more pitching depth that could have helped them overcome their injury woes this season, though perhaps the uncertainty around the club’s future payrolls led to some hesitation to give up cheap and controllable players.

How the new environment will change the club’s behavior will be an interesting offseason storyline. The free agent market will feature a number of big names, with Burnes the top pitcher while star position players like Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others will be available. Suddenly splurging on one of the top names would be a surprise but it should be possible for the O’s if the will is there. Per Cot’s, the club had a payroll as high as $164MM before their recent rebuilding period. They were only at $93MM in 2024 while RosterResource has them committed to just $37MM next year. Arbitration raises and some club options will bring that number up but there should be lots of powder dry if the club decides to be aggressive.

The club still has a fairly strong position player group, even with Santander set to depart, so pitching would be the obvious place to spend. Félix Bautista is expected to return after missing 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. That will bolster the bullpen, but further reinforcements wouldn’t hurt. The rotation without Burnes could feature Eflin, Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Young pitchers like Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott could work their way into the mix, while Rogers could get back on track after his disappointing season. Bradish and Wells could get back into the mix by midseason, but Means is slated for free agency.

It seems like Albert Suárez will be an option as well. Though he has far less than six years of service time, players who return from pitching in Japan or Korea often get provisions in their new contracts that allow them to become free agents regardless of service time considerations. That doesn’t appear to be the case with Suárez, even though he pitched in the KBO in 2022 and 2023. Per Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun (X link), Elias said this summer that the O’s would be able to keep him beyond 2024.

There are a number of options there but there’s still an argument for trying to bring back Burnes or another talented starter. Blake Snell is likely to opt out and join Burnes as a former Cy Young winner on the market. Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino and plenty of other notable names will be out there as well. As recently as a year ago, the idea of connecting the Orioles to free agents of that caliber would have been a stretch, but it will seemingly be more plausible going forward.

Brown: Astros May Have To Get “Creative” With Payroll

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The Astros’ incredible run of seven consecutive runs to the American League Championship Series ended yesterday when they ran into a scorching-hot Tigers club helmed by former Houston skipper A.J. Hinch. Although the ’Stros had their shortest season since 2016 and have a number of high-profile free agents coming off the books, general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada both made clear in addressing the team’s beat that there’s no plan to step back. Houston will unsurprisingly take aim at another deep postseason run next year, although the looming offseason could be one punctuated by some tighter-than-usual financial parameters.

“I think we’re going to have to make some wise decisions as to – are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and … allocate that money to other places,” Brown said Thursday (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “…We may have to get a little bit creative.”

That’s an ominous sentiment for any fan to hear from a team’s GM at the onset of the offseason. A look at Houston’s payroll, however, reveals a similarly ominous setup. The Astros opened the 2024 season with a payroll around $235MM and finished out the year north of $244MM, per RosterResource. They already have $147MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (including dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero). That doesn’t include a 10-player arbitration class — headlined by Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $57MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Astros are sitting around the $212MM mark next year before making a single addition.

In the absence of any notable free agent departures, perhaps that’d be workable, but the Astros will see franchise cornerstone Alex Bregman reach the open market for the first time in his career next month. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is also a free agent, as is deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, who thrived in the Houston rotation down the stretch. Relievers Caleb Ferguson, Hector Neris and Kendall Graveman are free agents as well, as are role players Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel.

Bregman, of course, is the most notable name of the bunch. Espada plainly stated that he hopes Bregman will return and heaped praise onto the former No. 2 overall pick for not only his on-field contributions but the manner in which he’s been the heart and soul of the team’s clubhouse.

“I’ve talked a lot about how much I love the individual, the human,” Espada said of Bregman (X link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). “I think what makes this team really good is the character of the people in clubhouse. He’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. I would love to have Bregman playing third base for us next year.”

Whether that’s feasible remains an open question. Teammate Jose Altuve has stumped for Bregman’s return in recent days — even before the team’s elimination — and Brown has said since being hired in the 2022-23 offseason that he hopes to keep Bregman in Houston for the entirety of his career. That talk has yet to manifest in the form of a contract, although the Astros are reportedly expected to put forth a formal offer soon. Brown doubled down on his hope of keeping Bregman and plans to talk with agent Scott Boras about a reunion (X link via McTaggart), but there are reasons to be skeptical of a deal coming to fruition.

The Astros, under owner Jim Crane, have never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal — nor have they given out a contract worth a larger guarantee than Jose Altuve’s most recent $151MM extension. Josh Hader’s five-year contract is the lengthiest and largest in guaranteed money that Houston has given to a free agent under current ownership. Bregman stands as one of the top-five free agents on this season’s market, arguably the No. 2 or 3 name in this year’s class behind Juan Soto.

Hitting the market in advance of his age-31 season, Bregman will have a case for a six- or possibly seven-year deal. He’s a year younger than fellow third baseman Matt Chapman, who just inked a six-year, $151MM extension to stay in San Francisco. Seven-year guarantees for position players beginning in their age-31 season or later are rare, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, though Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM with the Rangers) stands as a recent prominent example.

Even if Bregman is limited to “only” six years, he’ll surely seek a larger guarantee than Chapman just received last month. Chapman didn’t have the benefit of open-market bidding, and Bregman, even if he can’t match Chapman’s wizardry with the glove, is a quality defender who has been the more consistent offensive player of the pair. In addition to the Astros, clubs like the Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Royals and Nationals could be in the market for third base help. Unexpected suitors frequently emerge in pursuit of top-tier free agents, too.

Given Bregman’s tenure with the team and value on and off the field, it’s certainly feasible that Crane could push beyond his previous comfort levels to keep him in the fold. In that case, Bregman would likely push Houston close to $240MM of payroll obligations — or at least north of $230MM on a backloaded deal. Creatively structuring the contract, however, wouldn’t impact the luxury tax in the same way it does bottom-line payroll. Luxury tax is calculated based on contracts’ average annual value; re-signing Bregman would push the Astros into tax territory for a second straight season and only the third time under Crane’s ownership.

Brown left open the door for virtually any possibility, telling reporters the Astros “are not taking anything off the table in terms of what we’ll do” (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they both re-sign Bregman and add the bullpen pieces he also said will be a focus this winter (X link via McTaggart). Houston could always turn to the trade market to drop some payroll from other areas of the roster, but they surely won’t consider moving Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker or Valdez, and the contracts of Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t going to draw interest from other clubs. Ryan Pressly’s remaining one year and $14MM could be movable, but flipping him would only further the need to add bullpen arms.

One area the Astros don’t seem likely to spend heavily is in the rotation. Brown called next year’s staff “stacked.” The Astros will bring back Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Injured righties McCullers and Luis Garcia will hopefully be ready for the start of the season after missing all of 2024. Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy (if he’s tendered a contract) and J.P. France could all be midseason reinforcements. Prospect Ryan Gusto, 25, had a nice season in Triple-A (3.70 ERA, 22.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 148 1/3 innings).

It’s a group that, as of right now, doesn’t include Verlander. Brown touched on the subject of the three-time Cy Young winner (X link via McTaggart), noting that it “sounds like he wants to come back” but that he’ll “have some discussions with our front office … as to what’s best for the team.” Verlander spent much of the 2024 season on the injured list due to shoulder and neck injuries. He struggled badly enough down the stretch in his final six starts (8.89 ERA) that he wasn’t included on the team’s roster for the Wild Card Series against Detroit. With the Astros facing mounting payroll issues and already possessing a fairly deep stock of arms, a reunion may not be in the cards.

Astros Expected To Present Offer To Alex Bregman In Near Future

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Alex Bregman may have played his final game as an Astro on Wednesday. Detroit’s 5-2 win completed a sweep that ended Houston’s run of seven consecutive trips at least as far as the American League Championship Series. That’ll push the Astros into offseason mode, where the focus will be on their star third baseman.

Alden González of ESPN writes that the Astros are expected to present a formal contract proposal to Bregman in the near future. While Houston has yet to put an official offer on the table, general manager Dana Brown has said on a few occasions they’d discuss the contract once the season ended. Brown again expressed optimism about the situation. “When you get down to it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here,” the GM told González earlier this week. “And it’s just a matter of coming up with some type of an agreement.”

Coming to an agreement is naturally much easier said than done with a free agent of this caliber. Bregman is arguably the second-best position player who’ll hit the market. Unless the Scott Boras client takes a significant hometown discount, retaining him would probably require the biggest investment in franchise history. Houston’s organizational high was the five-year, $151MM extension for Jose Altuve signed in Spring Training 2018.

That $151MM sum is coincidentally an exact match for the extension which Matt Chapman signed with the Giants last month. (Chapman’s deal was over six years, so the average annual value was lower than that of the Altuve contract.) Bregman is a year younger than Chapman and a more consistent offensive player. Bregman will decline a qualifying offer if he gets to free agency. That’ll attach him to draft compensation. That wouldn’t have been the case for Chapman, who could not have received a QO from San Francisco. Still, the one-year gap in age and the safer offensive profile make it likely that Bregman’s earning power is above the Chapman price.

The career-long Astro hasn’t spoken much about his contract status. Bregman deferred offseason questions while the Astros were still alive, stating that he was focused on the team’s performance. He limited his comments mostly to generalities in the immediate aftermath of being eliminated. Asked whether he wanted to return to Houston, Bregman said he “(hopes) so but (will) let Scott and the team handle that” (X link via Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle). He subsequently took to Twitter to thank the city.

A few of Bregman’s teammates were effusive in their praise for the two-time All-Star. Altuve, himself a Boras Corporation client, was particularly strong about the Astros’ need to keep him. “In my mind there is not a chance this is his last game (as an Astro),” Altuve said (relayed on X by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “He gave a lot to this organization so it’s time for us as an organization to pay him back and make him stay here.” Altuve added that he planned to say as much personally to owner Jim Crane.

Ultimately, whether the Astros re-sign Bregman depends on Crane’s willingness to make a huge free agent investment. The Astros were content to let George Springer and Carlos Correa walk in previous offseasons. They’re down to their final seasons of arbitration control over Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, both of whom are trending to nine-figure deals. Tucker is on pace to exceed $200MM and could push into the $300MM range with a great walk year.

While Crane has generally been averse to long-term deals, he hasn’t been shy about investing in the team overall. Houston is finishing this year with an approximate $244MM player payroll, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $262MM in luxury tax obligations, putting them into the second tier of penalization.

RosterResource calculates their guaranteed commitments for next season around $133MM. Tucker and Valdez headline one of the priciest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houston’s arbitration group to cost around $58MM. Trades or non-tenders of José Urquidy and Chas McCormick could knock a few million from the ledger, but the Astros will go into the offseason with roughly $185MM in internal commitments.

Beyond the uncertainty at third base, Houston will need to look at the rotation and at first base. The latter was a huge issue all season. Houston’s rotation settled in later in the year, but they’ll see Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi hit free agency. Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and hopeful injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. make for a talented group. Injuries seriously tested the depth before they stabilized things with the Kikuchi pickup at the deadline, though, so Houston is likely to bring in some kind of starting pitching help.

The Astros don’t have an obvious in-house replacement at third base. Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo took a few at-bats this season, but they’re unproven at the MLB level. 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews could be an answer down the line. He only has 12 games of Triple-A experience thus far. Assuming the Diamondbacks pick up their option on Eugenio Suárez, there aren’t any clear regulars available at the position in free agency aside from Bregman.

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