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Last Season’s 2 Best Closers Have Fallen Off

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Right-handers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were unquestionably the two best closers in baseball in 2018. And unless you want to make an argument for dominant Brewers lefty Josh Hader, Diaz and Treinen were likely the game’s top two relievers period. However, a couple months into the 2019 season, they’re no longer running roughshod over their competition.

In what proved to be his final season in Seattle, where he burst on the scene in 2016, Diaz tossed 73 1/3 innings and notched a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with an eye-popping 57 saves in 61 attempts. Along the way, the flamethrower ranked fourth among relievers in K/9 (15.22) and 15th in BB/9 (2.09), leading to the league’s fourth-best K/BB ratio (7.29). He also trailed only Hader in swinging-strike percentage (18.9).

Despite Diaz’s incredible performance, the retooling Mariners deemed him expendable in the offseason. Seattle sent the 25-year-old to the Mets in an earth-shattering December trade that saved the M’s a ton of money and improved their farm system.

No doubt, the Mets expected Diaz to be the driving force behind a much-improved bullpen in 2019. To this point of the season, Diaz has perhaps been the Mets’ premier late-game option, but their bullpen has been a weak unit overall. For his part, the 25-year-old Diaz has been closer to the pitcher he was in 2017, when he was good but not otherworldly.

Diaz’s most recent outing, which came Wednesday against the Dodgers, surely counts among the worst of his career. He entered the game with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning and proceeded to allow six straight base runners amid a stunning collapse. Diaz yielded four earned runs on five hits (two home runs) and an intentional walk in what turned into a 9-8 loss for New York. The only batter he retired, Alex Verdugo, hit the game-winning sacrifice fly. The defeat left Diaz with a 3.22 ERA after he entered it with a 1.64 mark.

It’s easy to look at the shiny ERA Diaz had prior to Wednesday and attribute it to one bad performance. Similarly, it doesn’t take a lot of effort to say his .347 batting average on balls in play has been unlucky. However, the reality is that there are concerns across the board.

Diaz’s FIP (3.99) is up almost a run and a half since last year, while his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has risen from .214/.215 to .324/.289. It doesn’t help that Diaz’s strikeout rate has plummeted. After fanning 44.3 percent of batters in his Seattle swan song, Diaz has fallen to 36.1 in his introduction to New York. Beyond that, Diaz’s swinging-strike, line drive, hard/soft contact and chase rates have also gone in the wrong direction. He’s not keeping the ball on the ground as much either, which has led to newfound home run troubles. Diaz has already given up as many HRs as last season (five) through 51 fewer innings (22 1/3), and he’s now halfway to 2018 in blown saves (two).

Treinen, who made good on 38 of 43 attempts in 2018, has joined Diaz in failing on two tries so far this season. The 30-year-old may have been even better than Diaz in ’18, when he compiled a ridiculous 0.78 ERA/1.82 FIP across 80 1/3 innings. Treinen’s strikeout and walk rates (11.2 and 2.35 per nine) were excellent, albeit not as great as Diaz’s, as was his 51.9 percent groundball rate. But Treinen, who has significantly cut back his sinker and slider usage, is at 9.55, 3.95 and 40.3 in those categories this season. Meanwhile, Treinen’s ERA/FIP is up to 3.62/3.87 and his wOBA/xwOBA against has shot from .187/.214 to .313/.298.

What are some of the factors behind Treinen’s drop-off? Well, the .230 BABIP batters logged against him a year ago has moved to a more reasonable .306. At the same time, he’s not stranding as many base runners, having gone from an 85.9 percent left-on-base rate to 79.9. Furthermore, the right-hander is generating fewer swinging strikes, getting fewer out-of-zone swings and giving up more hard contact than he did last season. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Treinen, like Diaz, has had more difficulty keeping the ball in the park. Just two balls left the yard then against Treinen, who has allowed three through 27 1/3 innings in 2019.

While Diaz and Treinen have recorded disappointing numbers this season, the letdown is largely as a result of the utter brilliance they displayed last year. Any team in the majors would still take either hurler, though their current clubs – both of which are playoff hopefuls – may need more from them if they’re going to earn postseason bids.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Athletics Likely To Use Jharel Cotton In Bullpen Upon Return

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Athletics righty Jharel Cotton is working his way back from 2018 Tommy John surgery, having thrown seven innings on a rehab assignment at the Class-A Advanced level. However, although he made 24 starts for the A’s back in 2017 and is viewed as a long-term rotation option in Oakland, the organization is likely to utilize Cotton as a reliever upon his return to the roster, manager Bob Melvin told reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos).

Cotton, 27, didn’t pitch at all in 2018, as his torn ulnar collateral ligament was diagnosed during Spring Training. He underwent his Tommy John procedure in mid-March and, as a result, would quite likely be on an innings limit as a starting pitcher. Instead, he’ll work out of the ’pen for the 2019 campaign, presumably with an eye toward vying for a rotation job once again in 2020.

At that point, Cotton will join a rotation mix that looks vastly different than the present group. Sean Manaea will be assured a spot, assuming he fully recovers from shoulder surgery, while righty Daniel Gossett and top prospect A.J. Puk (both also recovering from Tommy John surgery) will be healthy enough to compete for jobs.

Presently, Marco Estrada is on the injured list due to a back issue, leaving the A’s with a bit of a patchwork starting outfit. Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, Chris Bassitt and breakout right-hander Frankie Montas are all locked into starting roles, while Daniel Mengden gives them a fifth option. They’re still using Liam Hendriks as an occasional opener, though; he made his second such appearance of the month this afternoon.

That rotation isn’t exactly teeming with star power, but the A’s have a collective 4.18 rotation ERA that ranks 13th in the Majors — and the eighth-best rotation ERA (3.38) over the past 30 days. Fielding-independent metrics aren’t nearly as bullish and feel there’s some regression in order, though the potential return of Manaea near the All-Star break could give the group a strong boost. And, if the A’s can continue to build on their blistering 10-1 hot streak, the A’s could very well be in position to add some arms on the summer trade market — as they did a year ago with Fiers.

As is the case with most starters, Cotton has been much better the first trip through the batting order than he has in while facing hitters for the third time in a game. He’s averaged 93 mph on his fastball and has some impressive swinging-strike rates on his changeup (15.2 percent) and cutter (14.4 percent). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his velocity tick up in shorter stints, and if he can narrow his arsenal to focus on a smaller selection of pitches, he could be an interesting addition to a bullpen that has some question marks in its final couple of spots.

Athletics Release Fernando Rodney

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The Athletics announced Tuesday that they’ve released veteran right-hander Fernando Rodney. He’d been designated for assignment over the weekend.

Rodney, 42, got out to an awful start with the A’s this season, pitching to a 9.42 ERA through 14 1/3 innings of work. In that series of 17 appearances, he’s allowed 20 hits (two homers) and a dozen walks while picking up 14 strikeouts. While he’s still throwing fairly hard, particularly given his age, the right-hander’ 93.1 mph average fastball is down noticeably from last season’s 94.2 mph average.

Rodney showed some cracks in 2018 after the A’s acquired him from the Twins in an August swap that sent minor league righty Dakota Chalmers to Minnesota — namely issuing 13 walks in his 20 2/3 frames following the trade. His overall season, however, was solid, and the A’s felt comfortable enough that they exercised a $5.25MM club option over the righty for the 2019 season.

There’s still about $3.53MM of that salary remaining to be paid out through season’s end, and the A’s will be on the hook for the entirety of that sum. Rodney will be free to sign with any club, and a new team would only need to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time he spends on the big league roster. That sum would be subtracted from the Athletics’ remaining obligation to Rodney.

AL West Notes: Gallo, Halos Hurlers, M’s, Herrmann, McHugh

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There’s little doubt that Rangers slugger Joey Gallo has drastically increased his career earnings outlook with a massive start to the current season. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News takes a look at the state of affairs on the extension front for baseball’s reigning three-true-outcomes king. The organization is obviously impressed, with manager Chris Woodward tabbing Gallo the club’s “best player” and GM Jon Daniels saying that he’s “mentally in a great spot.” Gallo says he’s not thinking about contracts, but agent Scott Boras surely is. As Grant notes, Boras’s assessment of Gallo’s season to date — “we are seeing the evolution of a superstar player” — offers a hint as to the kind of contract it might take to lock him up.

More from the American League West:

  • Angels righty JC Ramirez is set to launch a rehab assignment later this week, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ramirez underwent Tommy John surgery last April. With his 30-day rehab clock set to be triggered, Ramirez is now back on the map as a near-term roster piece for the Halos. The club owes him $1,901,000 this year, with two more arb campaigns remaining. Though he has had some struggles in his time in the majors, Ramirez has given the Halos 200 1/3 innings of 4.04 ERA ball and showed he could stick in the rotation in 2017.
  • As ever, there are other updates to the Angels rotation mix. Nick Tropeano will beat Ramirez back to the big leagues; as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets, Tropeano is coming up to pitch today’s ballgame. He was optioned after working back from a shoulder strain, and has been tagged in the run-happy PCL, but the innings are needed now. That’s due in no small part to the issues surrounding Matt Harvey, who just hit the injured list with a back strain after an awful stretch on the hill. Harvey didn’t have much of a timeline to offer reporters, as Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter link). With more to sort out than an injury, there’s no reason to think Harvey will be rushed back.
  • For the Mariners, there are a few incremental health updates of note, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports (all links to Twitter). Rehabbing relievers Sam Tuivailala and Hunter Strickland are still a ways off. The former, who is working back from Achilles surgery, has come down with dead arm and may need to re-start his rehab rather than heading back to the majors. The latter is readying for his first mound work since leaving with a lat injury earlier this year. Starter Felix Hernandez, who’s on the IL with a shoulder strain, is also nearing mound work. The club is still taking it slow with corner infielder Ryon Healy, who has yet to resume baseball activity after recently hitting the shelf due to a balky lower back. That’s a less promising outlook than had been indicated when he was first sidelined, but the club no doubt hopes to avoid a lingering problem.
  • Athletics backstop Chris Herrmann is nearing a rehab assignment, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Herrmann inked a one-year, $1MM deal over the offseason but hasn’t yet debuted with his new organization owing to knee surgery. It remains to be seen how the Oakland club will manage its roster once Herrmann is ready; Josh Phegley has hit well all year and Nick Hundley has turned it on after a dreadful start. It’s possible the A’s could ultimately carry all three, at least for a stretch, as Herrmann does have experience playing in other parts of the field.
  • It still doesn’t seem the Astros have cause for alarm regarding righty Collin McHugh, but he’s not going to be ready to return within the minimum ten-day window. Manager A.J. Hinch tells reporters, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link), that McHugh is in need of “a little more down time” to let his elbow stop barking. “He’s played catch a couple days and has not seen any progress,” says Hinch. “He’s not any closer than he was a few days ago.” McHugh has been a bit homer-prone, which explains his rough 6.04 ERA on the year, but otherwise has impressive peripherals. That he has been moved out of the rotation and into a relief role is testament to the depth of the talent on hand in Houston.

Latest On The Athletics’ Injured Pitchers

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The A’s are on a six-game winning streak and have won nine of their last 10 games, pulling into a tie with the Red Sox for the second AL wild card slot.  While things are looking up in Oakland right now, the team could also get some reinforcements on the way as some of their many injured pitchers begin to return to the fold.

Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has updates on several of the notable names on Oakland’s IL, including the status of star left-hander Sean Manaea.  After undergoing shoulder surgery last September, Manaea has looked to be well ahead of his projected recovery timeline, and could be back with the A’s as early as July.  In the latest step ni his rehab, he told Slusser that he’ll throw two bullpen sessions this week, and will begin to throw his slider during these bullpens.  Provided all goes well, Manaea will move on to facing live batters the following week.

Both Jharel Cotton and A.J. Puk are on the mend after undergoing Tommy John surgeries in 2018, with Cotton currently on a rehab assignment and roughly targeted for a mid-June return to the majors, while Puk recently threw a simulated game and is looking like a potential return in July.  Since both pitchers will be on innings limits, however, manager Bob Melvin told Slusser and other reporters that the Athletics haven’t ruled out using Cotton and Puk as relievers when they return.

Despite all of the injuries and second-string nature of its rotation, Oakland has received surprisingly solid contributions from its starting pitchers, both in the team’s run to the wild card game last season and thus far in 2019.  Frankie Montas, Mike Fiers, and Brett Anderson have made the most starts for the A’s this year, with Chris Bassitt and Daniel Mengden looking okay in limited action, while Marco Estrada and Aaron Brooks have struggled.  (Estrada is currently on the IL himself with a lower back strain, and said he hopes to begin playing catch next week.)

As much as this group looks in need of an upgrade that Cotton or Puk could provide, there isn’t any guarantee that either youngster would be able to pitch well as a starter in the wake of their long recovery; it isn’t uncommon, of course, for pitchers of any age to be ineffective in their first few months back from Tommy John surgery.  Looking long-term, the A’s also obviously don’t want to overexert Cotton or Puk for risk of more injury, so strategic usage out of a bullpen would be a better way to both manage workload and potentially also keep both pitchers in the mix for high-leverage situations.

This assumes, however, that Cotton or Puk will be factors at the Major League level at all, since Melvin noted “We’re not just going to bring guys here just because they’re healthy. They have to perform. We have to think there’s a role for them.”  Cotton has a 4.95 ERA over only 158 1/3 career MLB innings, though all of that action came as a starting pitcher.  Puk has yet to pitch beyond even the Double-A level, so despite his lofty top-100 prospect status, he’ll need to make a big impact to work his way into Oakland’s late-season plans.

A’s DFA Fernando Rodney, Select Wei-Chung Wang

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The Oakland Athletics have designated veteran reliever Fernando Rodney for assignment, their PR department announced. Wei-Chung Wang’s contract has been selected from Triple-A Las Vegas in a corresponding move.

This could spell the end of the road for 42-year-old Rodney, whose days of slinging arrows may be numbered after a 9.42 ERA in 17 appearances. Still, given the state of bullpens around the league, it would not be a shock to see Rodney hitch his cart to a different horse for another go-round. His 5.46 FIP isn’t all that far off the 4.52 mark he chalked up last season, and he’s striking out batters at just a slightly lower rate. On the flip side, his velocity is down a full mph, and his walk rate is up to 17.1 BB%, all of which and more has led to an ugly -0.6 rWAR mark on the year.

Rodney debuted as a 25-year-old way back in 2002 for the Tigers. He has twice led the league in games finished, while he took home the saves title with 48 for the Mariners as a 37-year-old. On the whole, he has appeared in 913 major league baseball games, thrown 899 2/3 innings, and struck out 908 professional baseball hitters at the game’s highest level. He sports a career 3.79 ERA and almost identical 3.77 FIP.

Wei-Chung Wang will make his first appearance in the majors since 2017 with the Brewers. This season in Triple-A he’s gone 1-1 with 16 appearances and a 3.75 ERA and 3.75 K/BB rate. The lefty spent last season with the NC Dinos of the KBO, going 7-10 with a 4.26 ERA across 25 starts.

Athletics Place Khris Davis On 10-Day IL

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This move had been expected, but it still took some time. The Athletics announced today that slugger Khris Davis is going to the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 22nd.

In the announcement, the club cited a “left hip/oblique contusion.” It still isn’t known just how long Davis will be down, but the hope remains it won’t be an exceedingly long absence.

In his stead, outfielder Skye Bolt will join the active roster. The 25-year-old came up briefly earlier this year. He has been turning in big numbers at Triple-A, with a .311/.379/.571 slash and six home runs through 132 plate appearances.

Khris Davis Likely To Be Placed On Injured List

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TODAY: Davis didn’t play in Oakland’s 7-2 win over Cleveland this afternoon, though he was still officially active for the game.  Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other media that since Thursday is an off-day, the team will wait until Friday to officially decide on Davis, though Melvin said there is “probably a great chance that he goes on the IL.”

TUESDAY, 9:03pm: Davis himself now tells reporters that he’s also dealing with what could be an oblique issue (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Julian McWilliams). He’ll undergo an MRI tomorrow morning to determine the extent of his injury.

8:49pm: The Athletics will place designated hitter Khris Davis on the 10-day injured list, manager Bob Melvin told reporters after tonight’s game (Twitter link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Davis exited tonight’s contest after just one plate appearance due to what the team announced as ongoing discomfort stemming from a hip contusion. He’d previously missed a few games in May due to the same issue. Oakland has yet to determine a corresponding roster move.

The ultra-consistent Davis, who signed a two-year, $33.5MM contract extension to remain with the A’s earlier this season (forgoing free agency in the process), is hitting .248/.318/.497 with 12 home runs and an improved 24.3 percent strikeout rate through 173 plate appearances to begin the season. With him landing on the injured list, the A’s could perhaps temporarily use the DH spot as a means of cycling through Robbie Grossman, Mark Canha (who homered while pinch-hitting for Davis tonight) and Chad Pinder in an effort to get increased playing time for the latter two.

Of the Athletics’ 40-man options to replace Davis in Triple-A, outfielder Skye Bolt is the only one who’s already been up in the Majors this season, and he’s hitting better in Las Vegas than teammates (and fellow 40-man options) Dustin Fowler and Franklin Barreto.

Injury Notes: McHugh, Davis, Tepera, Zunino, Duke

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The Astros announced today that right-hander Collin McHugh is headed to the 10-day injured list due to discomfort in his right elbow. It’s an ominous-sounding injury but the cause for concern doesn’t appear to be great; McHugh told reporters after the move that an MRI has already been performed and did not reveal any structural damage (link via the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome). He’ll spend two or three days resting the arm before playing catch, and the 31-year-old (32 next month) believes he’s only in line for a brief stay on the IL. Any injury for a free-agent-to-be is at least somewhat notable, of course, and McHugh’s stock is particularly worth watching now that he’s been dropped from the rotation to the bullpen. Right-hander Brady Rodgers will return to the Majors for the first time since 2016 to replace McHugh in the bullpen. Rodgers, a third-rounder in 2012, has had a long road back from 2017 Tommy John surgery to post a solid 3.22 ERA in 44 2/3 innings in Triple-A so far.

More injury updates of note…

  • Athletics slugger Khris Davis exited tonight’s game after one plate appearance due to what the team announced to be “lingering effects from a left hip contusion suffered earlier this season.” It’s not clear if this’ll be another day-to-day situation for Davis or whether he might finally require a trip to the injured list to allow what has been a long-nagging injury time to heal up. Davis, king of the .247 batting average, is remarkably just a hair off that number, hitting .248/.318/.497 with a dozen homers through 179 plate appearances after making an out in the one at-bat he did have Tuesday.
  • A right elbow impingement has landed Blue Jays righty Ryan Tepera on the 10-day injured list, per an announcement from the team. Right-hander Jimmy Cordero is up from Triple-A Buffalo in his place. The outlook on Tepera is of at least some concern, as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweets that Tepera says he’s been unable to get the proper level of extension on his release of his pitches. He’s headed to see a specialist for further evaluation. The 31-year-old Tepera had quietly emerged as a very solid setup piece for the Jays over the past few seasons but has been torched for a 6.55 ERA with nine strikeouts against six walks (two intentional) through 11 innings this season. His average fastball has dipped from 95 mph in 2017-18 to 93.7 mph this season. A healthy Tepera would make for a nice trade chip for the Jays this summer, given that he’s controlled through 2021, so his diagnosis and recovery timetable are well worth monitoring despite the fact that the Jays are on pace for nearly 100 losses.
  • Rays catcher Mike Zunino feels he’s making good progress on his return from a quad strain, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Zunino, who was given a four- to six-week recovery timeline is optimistic that he can return toward the front end of that projection. That’s welcome news for a Rays organization that has cycled through various combinations of Nick Ciuffo, Anthony Bemboom, Travis d’Arnaud and Erik Kratz since seeing both Zunino and Michael Perez land on the injured list. Both d’Arnaud and Kratz were trade acquisitions prompted by the loss of the organization’s top two catchers. Once Zunino and/or Perez is ready to return, there’ll likely be further roster juggling.
  • Lefty Zach Duke was placed on the injured list by the Reds due to a calf strain earlier today. Cincinnati will operate with a slightly shorter ’pen for at least a day or two, as they recalled infielder Josh VanMeter in his place. The Reds still have a pair of lefties in the bullpen in Amir Garrett and Wandy Peralta. For Duke, who inked a one-year deal worth $2MM this offseason, the trip to the IL could give him an opportunity for a mental breather on the heels of an ugly start to the year. Through 15 2/3 innings, the 36-year-old Duke has a 6.32 ERA with more walks (11) than strikeouts (9). Duke’s ground-ball rate, which sat at a hefty 59.4 percent in 2018, is down to 49 percent to begin the year.

Athletics Sign Cameron Rupp To Minor League Deal

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The Athletics have inked Cameron Rupp to a minor league deal, as was first noted on MLB.com’s transactions page. It doesn’t appear that there was a formal announcement from the organization, but Rupp has already logged a pair of games with Triple-A Las Vegas. He was released from a minor league pact with the Tigers last week.

Rupp, 30, hit .254/.329/.366 in 79 plate appearances with Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate but is best known for a five-season stretch with the Phillies from 2013-17. Rupp hit a combined .234/.298/.407 with 39 home runs, 57 doubles and a pair of triples through 1127 plate appearances in his time with the Phils, serving as their primary backstop for the final two seasons of his tenure there.

While Rupp has some pop in his bat, as evidenced by a career .173 ISO (slugging minus batting average), he’s been too strikeout prone at the dish (28.7 percent). Behind the plate, he’s thwarted 31 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in his career, which is slightly above the league average, while drawing questionable framing marks — particularly in 2017.

The Athletics have received perhaps surprising production from 31-year-old Josh Phegley behind the plate this season (.282/.313/.491), which has led to Phegley receiving considerably more playing time than veteran Nick Hundley. The 35-year-old Hundley inked a minor league contract this winter and broke camp with the A’s this season, but he’s hitting just .200/.228/.327 through his first 57 plate appearances.

The signing of Rupp comes not long after the A’s received some unwelcome news on top catching prospect Sean Murphy, who suffered a torn meniscus that required surgical repair (as initially reported by The Atheltic’s Melissa Lockard, on Twitter). That procedure should sideline Murphy into mid-June, if not longer, so Rupp will team up with Beau Taylor to hand catching duty in Vegas for the time being. Offseason signee Chris Herrmann is also recovering from knee surgery — his coming back in March — thus further depleting the organization’s depth at catcher.

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