New Possible Zito Scenario
Just got a note from my Mets source on a possible Barry Zito trade scenario. Here’s how this could play out:
The Orioles still have some interest in Kris Benson; VP Jim Duquette likes him. Benson would be dealt to the O’s for young players of Billy Beane’s choice.
Victor Diaz would be shipped off by the Mets as well, but again for prospects coveted by Oakland. The A’s don’t have room for Diaz given their glut of 1B/DH/OF types. The prospects from both deals would then be packaged with Aaron Heilman and the Mets would receive Zito.
The Mets would likely sign Jeff DaVanon to platoon in right field with Xavier Nady to complement this trade. The switch-hitting DaVanon didn’t do much with righties this year, but posted an .824 OPS against them in 2004. Nady has a career line of .323/.400/.452 in 124 at-bats versus southpaws. So keep an eye out for a DaVanon signing and Benson trade, because that could spell a Zito deal.
Oakland A’s Buzz
I’ve got a source out of Oakland who filled me in on the latest buzz from the club recently.
Frank Thomas has told his agent, Arn Tellem, that he wants to join the A’s. Billy Beane holds all the cards here, as Thomas’s confusing medical reports have scared off all other suitors. Gambling on Thomas’s health is another example of Beane snagging a player undervalued in the market.
Word is that the A’s really don’t want to go to arbitration with Milton Bradley. Bradley’s due for a sizeable raise from the $2.5MM he made in 2005, and he’s using his leverage to milk the team for some extra bucks.
He’s no longer an Athletic, but the word is that Octavio Dotel‘s medical records indicate that he only has one or two years left in baseball due to some possible shoulder problems. Dotel also had Tommy John surgery in June 2005.
Craig Wilson, Cubs Bullpen, and More
Today seems to be a bit of a slow day on the trade rumors front. I’m still working on gathering some Tejada info. For now I’ll just say that you shouldn’t discount the White Sox even after both major Chicago newspapers quoted Kenny Williams saying no deal will happen. As commenters in this thread pointed out, Williams has been known to keep a low profile and be less than forthright when talking to the media.
Somehow, a rumor came about yesterday that San Francisco’s KNBR 1050 was reporting that the Pirates had dealt Craig Wilson to the Athletics for Kirk Saarloos. This rumor appears to have been fabricated; it doesn’t seem that the radio station ever proposed it. KNBR didn’t return my emails, but I’m still pretty sure there’s nothing to the rumor. It’s not implausible, as Billy Beane is the type of GM to acquire an undervalued player and worry about his outfielder surplus later. I don’t believe Dave Littlefield’s statements about not wanting to trade Wilson. He’d be valuable to many teams, and the Pirates’ recent acquisitions indicate that they’ll deal him.
RotoAuthority’s latest:
2006 Fantasy Guide On Sale For $9.99 For A Limited Time
Good readin’: 1060west has updated its post about the Cubs’ revamped bullpen. This quote resonated with me:
"Seen in the light of statistical evidence, it becomes clear that nothing has been done to improve the Cub bullpen from April 2005 to this stage; in fact, if anything, the Cubs have actually gotten weaker in going from Hawkins to Howry and Remlinger to Eyre."
The main point is that Hendry tends to purchase free agent relievers for big bucks following the reliever’s best season. Not a smart strategy.
The Phillies and Ryan Franklin? This won’t end well. I’m just happy to see than Ryan Madson will finally get a shot in the rotation; he’s got a 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 7.27 K/9 in 166 Major League innings. High strikeout totals and good control are always a great combo.
Cubs Still Discussing Zito, Tejada
Just got off the phone with Dave Kaplan, host of Sports Central on WGN Radio 720 out of Chicago. He gave me the latest on where the Cubs stand with Barry Zito.
Billy Beane is not sure whether he’ll deal Zito now or in July. However, the teams have had discussions recently, and the A’s like the Cubs’ farm system quite a bit. A deal for several of the Cubs’ young arms is a distinct possibility. The A’s aren’t looking for Matt Murton in the trade, but rather pitchers like Rich Hill, Angel Guzman, and Sean Marshall. There’s been plenty of debate on this site about Rich Hill’s future in the Major Leagues, but it’s a fact that many teams absolutely love him and are trying to pry him away from the Cubs. Hill has a ton of trade value. Anyway, sit tight on the Zito idea; nothing’s going down today.
Kaplan also mentioned that the Tejada trade is "not dead" for the Cubs. I don’t know which names are currently being tossed around, but rest assured the Cubs still have a chance at acquiring him.
Wild Rumor From Gotham Baseball
Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has heard a massive trade rumor from "multiple independent baseball sources." Of course, it’s subject to change, isn’t close, and all the usual disclaimers. Here’s the Cliff Notes version of it:
"Mets would send Heilman and Matsui (and $5 million) to Tampa Bay for Lugo. Then New York would send Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister and Victor Diaz to Baltimore for Tejada, and then send Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez."
Let’s stop right there. My opinion on each step of this possible deal:
Aaron Heilman for Julio Lugo sounds like fair value to me. Gotham’s sources have the Mets eating $5MM of the $8MM owed to Kaz Matsui in 2006. That part gels with the information I’ve heard from my Mets source that New York would have to pay at least half of Matsui’s salary to unload him. I’m not sure how the Devil Rays would structure their infield, with Jorge Cantu entrenched at second base and B.J. Upton ready to take over at short. I had thought the D-Rays would hold out for more than this for Lugo – a good reliever plus someone else’s baggage. I still feel that they’ll want more.
So then the Orioles are giving up their superstar shortstop, possibly one of the five best players in baseball, for Julio Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister, and Victor Diaz. This is where the plausibility of the rumor breaks down for me. The Orioles have given every indication that they need a star player back for Tejada – they’re not even sold on Mark Prior. Lugo’s a good player for $5MM, but he hits free agency after that. Benson is a fourth starter who figures to post an ERA around 4 over the next two seasons while being paid more than $15MM. That doesn’t add much value for the O’s. Bannister is a smart young pitcher with a good minor league track record, but Baseball America has said he’s "not overpowering" and "doesn’t have a high ceiling." Diaz is still a valuable prospect, but could easily turn out to be a career reserve.
To sum it up, the Orioles are giving up Tejada to get a pretty good SS in his contract year, an overpaid fourth starter, a B-level pitching prospect, and a solid outfield prospect. That’s quantity over quality, and I don’t see it happening.
To finish it off, the Mets ship Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny, effectively giving up nothing impressive for the superstar outfielder, considering the players sent to Baltimore. Not entirely sold on that step, and I’d heard the Orioles did not want Tejada to play for a division rival.
UPDATE: Just asked my Mets source whether the above scenario could happen. He said there’s no way: "Orioles get screwed, the Red Sox get screwed, and the Mets have everything go their way."
Healey’s article also mentions these comments from a baseball official:
"If Barry Zito doesn’t get dealt before opening day, the A’s are screwed. No one is willing to pay Beane’s price after what the Braves paid for Hudson [Namely, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas]."
I don’t agree with the baseball official, for what it’s worth. The A’s hold all the cards with Zito. They have absolutely no need to unload him, and will boast a deep rotation if they keep Zito until July. I find it odd that the official cites the Hudson trade as hurting Beane’s ability to make major trades. The Tim Hudson deal is one where the Braves can be labeled a clear winner. The highly touted Meyer quickly got hurt and is a question mark, Cruz wasn’t deemed Major League ready by Oakland, and Charles Thomas has completely crapped out. Perhaps the official meant to refer to the Mark Mulder trade.
Zito, Kendall For Floyd, Abreu, Lieberthal?
A wild rumor has surfaced on the A’s page of MLB.com. According to the site:
"Late Wednesday, another rumor popped up, with the Phillies said to have offered outfielder Bobby Abreu, catcher Mike Lieberthal and pitching prospect Gavin Floyd for lefty Barry Zito and catcher Jason Kendall."
Lieberthal and Kendall had about equal value on the field in 2005. Comparing contracts, the catcher part of the deal is a big win for Oakland. Kendall’s on the hook for $19MM through 2007, while Lieberthal is owed $7.5MM for 2006 only. So the A’s come out a good $11.5MM ahead here, especially considering how bad Kendall could be by 2007.
Zito will be paid $7.9MM in 2006 before he hits free agency. Here’s Dayn Perry’s thoughts on the lefthander:
"He’s a good starting pitcher who eats innings and is a safe bet to be a tick or two above average in terms of preventing runs. However, Zito’s not an ace. That he might be treated as one on the trade market is part of the reason why Oakland should deal him now."
Abreu is a star, and he will be paid like one for the next two or three years. He’ll get $28MM through 2007 with a $16MM club option for ’08 and a $2MM buyout. So the A’s would be on the hook for a ton of money, but they are getting a more valuable player. Plus, even the A’s would consider signing Abreu as a free agent if he was asking for two years, $30MM. That’s not a terrible price and the length is reasonable.
Gavin Floyd is kind of a throw-in to make Beane feel better about the salary he’d be taking on. Floyd had a very ugly 163 innings in 2005, and still hasn’t come near mastering Triple A. 28 solid Major League innings in 2004 probably gave him a reputation he didn’t deserve.
Thanks to the several emailers who passed this rumor along.
Barry Zito To The Mets
Just heard from my Mets source, who’s out at Shea (not in Dallas). The Mets are apparently very interested in Barry Zito. Here are the details.
The Barry Zito deal is contingent on the Mets shedding Kris Benson first. The Mets want Mike MacDougal and a prospect for Benson, while the Royals only want to give Jeremy Affeldt. It’s not likely the Mets acquire both relievers.
The Mets have talked to the A’s about Zito, and Lastings Milledge will be included in any deal. Aaron Heilman is a possibility. My source is saying that the Mets will make the trade without an extension done, as long as there’s an understanding that it will happen. This gels with what Matthew Cerrone mentioned at MetsBlog today, that Zito would consider signing an extension. My source expects Zito to be moved by the weekend, assuming Benson gets done quickly.
My source’s info does not gel with what Peter Gammons told writer Joel Lipsky this morning at a Dallas gym. Gammons apparently said that if the A’s are to move Zito, "they must get a number three starter, at least, in return. Preferably a lefty." Given that Zito is a number three starter, I don’t see what team is going to meet that request.
UPDATE: My source is now telling me that the Mets weren’t offering enough for Zito. Omar stood fast, and Beane will continue to wait for that offer he can’t refuse. Also, look for Kaz Matsui to be dealt within the next couple of days, with the Mets possibly eating half his salary.
Milton Bradley Dealt For Saarloos And Ramos?
According to a source in Sacramento, the Dodgers have traded Milton Bradley to the A’s for pitchers Kirk Saarloos and Mario Ramos. My source heard about Ramos’s departure via KXTV Channel 10 in Sacramento. There’s a thread hopping over at MLB.com about the deal as well.
Bradley’s potential is unquestionable, and has been discussed on this site many times. It’s a very Beane-like move to snag a player who the market has undervalued.
Despite winning ten games in 2005, Kirk Saarloos doesn’t figure to ever escape the fifth starter realm. In every Major League trial, the 26 year-old soft-tosser has allowed tons of baserunners. He’ll have trouble replicating his 4.17 ERA if he continues to post a 1.40 WHIP.
Mario Ramos was snagged off waivers by Beane in 2003. He’s been a mainstay at Triple A Sacramento, and hasn’t pitched well since 2003.
Thanks to Jerry
Oakland Signs Esteban Loaiza
Ken Rosenthal has the scoop on the latest free agent signing over at Fox Sports. Apparently Billy Beane is close to inking Esteban Loaiza to a three-year, $21MM pact.
A month ago, I commented on RotoAuthority that I thought this contract could be a disaster if it reaches more than two years or $6MM annually. I have to assume that Billy Beane knows something we don’t about Loaiza.
Loaiza was hit hard away from RFK Stadium in 2005, and he had a rough time his last turn through the American League. I commend Jim Bowden for letting him leave.
Loaiza was ranked 42nd on Steve Phillips’s Top 50 Free Agents List and 32nd on the RotoAuthority List.
Thanks to David R.