Pirates Trade Rumors
Let’s run down all the possible trades Dave Littlefield and the Pirates have brewing.
The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review still has Oakland as the favorite for Sean Casey, a move that makes little sense to me.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette mentions a possible swap of John Grabow for Ryan Shealy. That sounds reasonable.
Dejan Kovacevic’s article also indicates that the Mets and Yankees are leading the charge for Kip Wells. The Yankees also want Craig Wilson and Roberto Hernandez. Wilson and Wells seem unlikely at this point, though, as the Abreu deal looks close.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 7 Days Left
Here’s the latest from around baseball…
Dejan Kovacevic mentions that the A’s are considering Sean Casey. Casey’s doing his usual good batting average/low slugging thing and he’s getting $8.5MM for it. The combined efforts of Dan Johnson and Nick Swisher have been inadequate at first, but would Casey really help? Johnson is hitting .485/.575/.848 in 33 Triple A at-bats; maybe he deserves another look. The Athletics, who are dead last in the AL in slugging, wouldn’t be helped by adding the powerless Casey. They need Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell, or even Raul Ibanez to make a difference.
The Yankees have decided to hold on to Philip Hughes, and the Phils aren’t biting on whatever else they offered. According to George King, the Yanks think assuming Abreu’s contract and exercising his option should be enough. Still, it would be cool to see a nasty young Phillies rotation in 2008 with Hughes, Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, and Scott Mathieson.
Also, I’m hearing that WPEN in Philadelphia has mentioned a trade rumor: Tom Gordon for Trot Nixon. Nixon is a good hitter (.400 OBP), though he’s 32 with declining power numbers. Given that Flash would be hands down the best reliever on the market, I’d expect the Phils to get more.
Kenny Williams didn’t deny the recent Soriano rumor, so now you know it’s legit. Kenny has been pretty shrewd with the media, so this is probably all part of his plan. Despite word of a possible contract extension with Washington, Buster Olney all but assured us of a Soriano trade in today’s blog.
Also, Olney nixed the A-Rod to the Cubs idea, explaining that Rodriguez is a bargain in the Yankees’ world. This column is kind of weird to me. Phil Rogers almost seems like he’s just cooked up a brilliant scenario or something, with Aramis Ramirez and Jacque Jones being swapped for A-Rod. Thing is, Bleed Cubbie Blue broke out this exact trade rumor three weeks ago.
RotoAuthority has a look at which pitchers have been abused this season.
Rumor Roundup
Another day, another rumor roundup. Let’s throw everything fresh into the mill.
The Orioles are thinking about taking on one of Philly’s huge outfielder contracts, for some reason. I guess this could help next year’s push for third place. Baltimore is one of baseball’s most baffling teams to me. Abreu rumors have been floating around the Orioles since at least November.
The Cubs and Yankees may have something cooking, with Scott Williamson the likely candidate to be dealt. If the reliever market is really so inflated, why don’t the Cubs trade Howry and Eyre?
The Pirates are offering up all sorts of non-difference makers, but Mike Gonzalez could actually get them something decent. The 28 year-old southpaw has a 2.27 ERA in 39 innings this season. Fantay leaguers should start thinking about Matt Capps as his successor.
Trade rumor All-Star Ken Rosenthal is getting into the game more lately, with a full plate of whisperings posted an hour ago. Jose Vidro could become a Giant, and the D’Backs would love to trade Shawn Green (of course).
Unfounded rumors: Billy Beane may be shopping Mark Ellis and Jason Windsor, with possible interest in Brian Roberts…the Angels could be after David Dellucci…teams are calling the Mets about Alay Soler…Dallas McPherson is definitely on the block…there’s a decent chance Jon Lieber ends up a Yankee…the Mets and Nats are still talking about Livan Hernandez.
Miscellaneous Rumors
There are a few trade-related nuggets in the newspapers today, but I don’t expect anything major to go down until June.
The Reds are trying to find a taker for Tony Womack, who has thankfully been pushed out of their infield and demoted. That is what we call a million dollar mistake. I guess Brandon Phillips makes up for it, at least until his bat runs cold.
Jay Payton and his agent are being vocal about finding him his 500 ABs with another team if necessary. The best fit I can find is the Cardinals.
The Yanks plan on declining Mike Mussina‘s option and re-signing him to a more reasonable deal. The decline is a no-brainer at $17MM, but I’m just remembering what happened with Jon Lieber. New York had some goodwill there after paying Lieber to rehab, but he still jumped ship after seeing the market. This is a different situation given Mussina’s tenure, and he has said he wants to stay put. I’m just saying, it’s not a 100% lock.
Howie Kendrick got the call, but it took an injury, and not a trade, of Maicer Izturis. My guess is that Izturis will spend at least a month on the shelf and that Kendrick will stick for the rest of the season. If Kendrick can hit as expected between pinch-hitting, DHing, and spot starting at 2B/3B, there will be plenty of interest for Adam Kennedy in the coming months. Kennedy is a 3-4 win guy who could really help the Mets or Cardinals for half a season.
Thoughts On Zito
Just read the latest Barry Zito article, wherein Zito agreed with former teammates Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi that he would thrive in New York. He declined to pick a favorite NY team, however. At this point, it’s pretty clear that Minaya and Cashman are going to go toe to toe for his services this winter, and it’ll be pretty entertaining. The rumormongering will be ridiculous.
The losing team will probably end up with Jason Schmidt, Kerry Wood, Kelvim Escobar, Andy Pettitte, or Mark Mulder. I think the first four will have fine seasons, but I’m not so sure about Mulder.
I know this has been said before, probably by many of our friends at Athletics Nation. But now I’m on board: I do not think Zito will be dealt this season. Don’t worry, I’ll still pass along any decent rumor that comes my way.
The A’s were in a semi-rebuilding mode when they traded Hudson and Mulder. They stayed in the playoff hunt, but they weren’t the team they are now. The 2006 A’s are built to win and not rebuild at all. Hence, the Thomas and Loaiza signings. In my mind, the chances that Beane finds another Dan Haren available this July are slim. It would be like the Phils trading Ryan Madson plus a top prospect, or the Twins giving up Scott Baker and a top prospect. The White Sox giving up Brandon McCarthy. Jocketty sending Anthony Reyes over. None of these "young stud with Major League experience" scenarios sound feasible. The A’s will just let Zito play out his last season as they have with many impending free agents in the past.
Gotham Baseball’s Zito Rumor
Gotham Baseball’s Executive Editor, Mark Healey, had some informed speculation on Monday about a possible trade of Barry Zito to the Mets for Lastings Milledge and Brian Bannister. I figured I’d pass it along, as these guys seem to have some good front office type sources.
Here are some highlights quoted from Healey from the thread:
"Call me nuts…but I still think something is happening here and will in the next couple of days…
Mike and I talk to scouts, front office people every week, sometimes daily….mostly to check on things, etc…
Before and after our respective trips to ST…we both did pre-work and post-work…
When people start getting tight-lipped, and strange things like Milledge and Bannister staying in Major League camp longer than they were supposed to be — my antenna goes up.
However, be that as it may, this thread was specualtion…if I had any corroboration, it’d be in the Rumor Mill.
[posted today] About five minutes after I posted the above I got a phone call from my West Coast guy saying that My speculation "might not be far off the mark" but wouldn’t elaborate…saying to check on what Oakland GM Billy Beane has been up to…
Hmmm…seems Billy traded the immortal Juan Cruz to the D’Backs for Brad Halsey (a 25 year old left-hander)…
Another starter, one less reliever for the Oaks?
The plot thickens…"
Is Billy Beane Messing With Us?
I hate to keep plucking info from ESPN, but I can’t ignore some good stuff from Peter Gammons’s blog this morning. Gammons quotes Billy Beane as saying this about Barry Zito:
"I have not had one call on Barry, nor have I made any inquiring about interest."
I find it hard to believe that Omar Minaya and Jim Hendry didn’t do so much as place a single phone call about Zito’s availability. Were a dozen different sources misinformed about Zito trade rumors, or is Beane using Gammons to transmit a message? We know Beane rarely talks to reporters other than Gammons. The two have a quid pro quo type of relationship, according to Moneyball.
Gammons also mentions that MLB may already have a plan in place to contract four teams. In addition, the Joey Gathright for Scott Olsen trade is still under consideration. A no-brainer for the D-Rays in my opinion.
Explaining The Durazo Disinterest
I’ve been at least mildly curious as to why Erubiel Durazo is being treated like he has a disease one year removed from a .919 OPS season. I mean, if there’s interest in Ruben Sierra, there sure as hell should be interest in Durazo.
Fortunately, I had a source fill me in recently on the story here. Seems that Durazo was raking in a simulated game last summer and was cleared by Oakland team doctors. He was penciled in to the following week’s lineup, but ultimately chose surgery against the team’s advice. Apparently Durazo is perceived as less than a team player around baseball, leaving him with few interested suitors.
Of course, the fact that he’s exclusively a DH and is coming off Tommy John surgery doesn’t exactly spark bidding wars, regardless of his attitude. I still need Durazo and Roger Clemens to come to terms so that I can analyze the results of my Top 50 Free Agents list.
Maine Offered To A’s For Hudson?
I was all set to point out that Billy Beane has indeed had previous interest in John Maine, but MetsBlog and a lot of message boards beat me to the punch. That’s what I get for taking the afternoon off.
For what it’s worth, I did find this Peter Gammons article from December of 2004 mentioning that Maine was offered by the Orioles for Tim Hudson along with Erik Bedard and Hayden Penn. Man, why didn’t Billy Beane take that offer? That’s 3/5 of a starting rotation right there.
Benson Dealt To Orioles; Zito Implications?
Many of you have already noticed by now that Newsday is reporting that the Mets traded Kris Benson to the Orioles for Jorge Julio and John Maine. A tip of the cap to Orioles Hangout; I’m pretty sure they confirmation first.
The question on most people’s minds is this: is the Benson swap the initial movement indicating a trade of Barry Zito to the Mets? If you recall, my Mets source indicated yesterday that Benson would be traded to Baltimore to acquire a prospect to Billy Beane’s liking. I’ve got word out to a couple of sources to see if anything has changed. In the meantime, let’s see what we can deduce.
First off, would the A’s have use for John Maine? The 24 year-old righty starter was ranked 6th in the Orioles’ organization by Baseball America entering the 2005 season. According to BA back then, Maine needed to refine his command and had a ceiling as a #3 starter. They also mentioned that he was "probably a #4 or 5 guy on a first-division club." Maine pitched kind of like a #4 starter in 128 innings at Triple A Ottawa in ’05. He posted a 4.56 ERA with improved control while maintaining a solid K rate.
I haven’t projected Maine myself yet, but ZiPS thought he’d throw 153 innings of 4.41 ball in his first extended trial with the Orioles. I think that’s great value for the price. For basis of comparison, Maine’s 2005 doesn’t look terribly different from Danny Haren‘s 2004. Haren was certainly better, but it’s a fair comparison. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus lists these comparables for Maine: Joel Pineiro (2002), A.J. Burnett (2001), Juan Marichal (1961), Bob Gibson (1960), and strangely, Jorge Julio (2003). I know the A’s already have a stable of starters, but Maine probably needs a little more time and a team can never have too much starting pitching depth.
I would speculate that the Mets would hang onto Jorge Julio to serve as Aaron Heilman‘s replacement. While most analysis today indicates that the Benson trade simply means Heilman starts for the Mets, I am skeptical. According to MetsBlog earlier this month:
"The problem is that the only person who seems to see Heilman as a starter is Heilman. Nearly all scouts and experts that I talked with all explained the same thing: Heilman’s repertoire is too hittable during his second time through a lineup."
Should Minaya package up Victor Diaz with someone to acquire a top flight prospect suitable to the A’s, I could really see this Zito deal coming to fruition.