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Aaron Nola To Be Shut Down For Two Weeks With Stress Reaction In Rib Cage

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Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola is already on the injured list but won’t be returning soon. Per Matt Gelb of The Athletic, a recent MRI revealed a stress reaction in his right rib cage. He won’t throw for the next two weeks.

Nola landed on the 15-day IL almost a month ago due to a sprained right ankle. It’s unclear how or when he suffered this rib injury but it’s a notable setback for him. Even if he’s healthy two weeks from now, it will have been about six weeks since his most recent game action. At that point, he’ll have to ramp back up into game shape. As noted by Gelb, it’s now possible that Nola won’t return until after the All-Star break.

Prior to hitting the IL, Nola wasn’t having his best season, with a 6.16 earned run average in nine starts. However, that may not have been entirely his fault. His 23.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate were fairly close to his previous levels, while his .348 batting average on balls in play and 68.7% strand rate were both to the unlucky side. ERA estimators like his 5.00 FIP and especially his 3.63 SIERA felt he deserved far better.

He now won’t get a chance to improve his numbers for a while. As he has been out of action, the Phils have endured their toughest stretch of the season. They have lost nine of their past eleven contests, dropping them to four games back of the Mets in the National League East.

On paper, the Philadelphia rotation is strong even without Nola in it. They still have Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo and Mick Abel. However, Wheeler recently spent some time on the paternity list and Luzardo’s past two starts have been awful. Abel’s big league numbers are good so far but he literally has two starts under his belt.

Ideally, that group can help the team right the ship in the coming weeks. If not, the Phils have some potential in-house pivots. Prospect Andrew Painter is now healthy and putting up decent numbers in Triple-A, though he may have workload concerns after missing all of the previous two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Taijuan Walker is currently in the bullpen and could return to the rotation, though getting stretched out midseason can be a challenge.

The trade deadline is on July 31st, which may coincide with Nola’s return to the big league club. Given the starting options the Phils already have on hand, trading for more help is probably not the top of their to-do list, but it’s always possible that more injuries pop up or that Nola experiences another setback of some kind.

Photo courtesy of Bill Streicher, Imagn Images

Mets Sign Travis Jankowski To Minor League Deal

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The Mets signed veteran outfielder — and former Met — Travis Jankowski to a minor league deal, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. The Excel Sports client will head to Triple-A Syracuse for the time being.

Jankowski was placed on waivers by the Rays earlier this month. He went unclaimed and elected free agency, as is his right as a player with more than more than three years of service (more than eight, in Jankowski’s case). His time with Tampa Bay, during which he batted .244/.286/.289 in 49 plate appearances, gives him at least some level of big league action in 11 consecutive seasons.

Though he crossed eight years of MLB service during that Rays stint, Jankowski has never been a regular in the majors. He played a career-high 131 games with the 2016 Padres but did so in a limited, part-time role (383 plate appearances). He’s never topped the 387 plate appearances he logged with the 2018 Padres and has a total of 805 plate appearances over the past seven MLB seasons.

Jankowski is a career .236/.318/.305 hitter. He has negligible power and a league-average strikeout rate but draws plenty of walks, runs well and can play solid defense at all three outfield positions. He’s a nice fourth or fifth outfielder who’ll head to Triple-A and see if an opportunity opens up with the Mets’ big league squad, where Brandon Nimmo, Tyrone Taylor and Juan Soto are currently the main outfield options.

Both Jared Young and Starling Marte can technically play in the outfield, but they have four combined appearances on the grass this season. Outfielders Jose Siri and Jesse Winker are currently on the injured list (although the latter has primarily been a designated hitter). Jeff McNeil is effectively the Mets’ fourth outfielder at the moment. He’s logged 96 innings in the outfield, including 49 in center.

Jankowski was with the Mets back in 2022 but went just 9-for-44, with all nine of those hits being singles. That came out to a .167/.286/.167 batting line, but he could find himself with the opportunity to make a more lasting impression this time around, should the Mets incur an outfield injury or opt to move McNeil back to second base on a full-time basis.

Poll: Can Drew Rasmussen Keep Pitching Like An Ace?

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Drew Rasmussen has pitched into the fifth inning in every start he’s made in 2025. That might not seem so impressive, but Rasmussen is one of just 28 pitchers to have recorded an out in the fifth in 13 or more starts this year. That’s fewer than one per team. Not to mention, he’s coming off internal brace surgery, the third major elbow procedure of his career. Few major leaguers have ever returned from a third such surgery, let alone returned and thrived as the kind of arm a team can count on for five innings every five days.

Even better for Rasmussen and the Rays, his innings stand out for their quality as much as their quantity. In 12 of his 13 starts, he has thrown at least five frames whilst allowing no more than seven baserunners and four runs. No other pitcher – not Paul Skenes, not Jacob deGrom, not Zack Wheeler – has made as many starts that fit that description. All told, the 29-year-old has a 2.22 ERA, the eighth-lowest among qualified AL starters, right in between preseason Cy Young favorites Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. His 0.90 WHIP ranks third, just behind Skubal’s and just ahead of deGrom’s. Underlying those strong results are a 5.3% walk rate, a 50.8% groundball rate, and a 4.8% barrel rate, all of which rank him among the AL’s best. None of his ERA estimators (3.43 SIERA, 3.16 xERA, 3.23 FIP, and 3.31 xFIP) is quite as strong as his low-2.00s ERA, but they’re all still excellent numbers, and only four qualified AL starters have him beat in all four metrics: Skubal, Crochet, Kris Bubic, and Hunter Brown. Those are four of the most exciting young hurlers in the league.

Rasmussen has often flown under the radar, but his ace-like performance this year is hardly coming out of nowhere. Since he arrived in Tampa Bay as part of the Willy Adames trade in 2021, he has pitched to a 2.62 ERA in 347 1/3 innings. He has also compiled 8.2 FanGraphs WAR and 8.8 Baseball Reference WAR in that time. That works out to roughly four wins above replacement per 162 innings, an All-Star-caliber clip. Just as impressive is his consistency. In parts of five seasons with the Rays, he has never had an ERA higher than 2.84. Of course, injuries have severely limited his playing time – he threw 59 innings for Tampa Bay in 2021, 146 in 2022, 44 2/3 in 2023, 28 2/3 in 2024, and he’s thrown 69 so far in 2025 – but his steady excellence is remarkable all the same. Before and after each stint on the IL, Rasmussen has remained dominant. We’re also talking about a guy with the underlying metrics and phenomenal stuff to back up his great results. Since he joined the Rays, only three pitchers have thrown more innings than Rasmussen with a lower SIERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP: Skubal, Chris Sale, and Spencer Strider. Meanwhile, the comprehensive pitch models at FanGraphs, PitchingBot and Pitching+, both suggest his arsenal has been well above average in every season of his Rays tenure.

So, on the one hand, we’re looking at a pitcher who has excelled at every turn over the past five years. On the other hand, that same pitcher has never thrown more than 146 innings in a season. His second-highest single-season innings total at the MLB level is 76. Both of those campaigns came before his third major elbow surgery. In other words, all of Rasmussen’s stats come from a relatively small sample. Furthermore, we have no way to know for sure that he is capable of pitching a full, qualified season without tiring down the stretch. Most important of all, he’s an injury risk, and he will carry that label for perhaps the rest of his career. So, even in a best-case scenario in which Rasmussen continues to shine and shows no sign of slowing down, the Rays will have to manage his workload carefully. At some point, Kevin Cash might stop him from pitching into the fifth inning every start. It’s not out of the question that Rasmussen could eventually move to the bullpen if the Rays are particularly worried about his innings.

Rasmussen has pitched like an ace so far in 2025. Indeed, on a per-inning basis, he’s been one of the most effective arms in the game since he landed with the Rays in 2021. Yet, it’s far from a guarantee he can keep this up over the next several months. So, what do MLBTR readers think? Has Rasmussen done enough to prove he’s one of the game’s premier starting pitchers? Or will his injury history and lack of experience catch up with him as the season wears on? Have your say in today’s poll:

Nationals Claim Ryan Loutos

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The Nationals announced that they have claimed right-hander Ryan Loutos off waivers from the Dodgers and optioned him to Triple-A Rochester. The Dodgers designated the righty for assignment last week. The Nats had a roster vacancy after recently releasing righty Jorge López but their 40-man is now full.

Loutos, 26, joins his third club of the year. He started the season with the Cardinals but was designated for assignment at the end of April. The Dodgers then acquired him in a cash deal but gave him the DFA treatment again a few days ago, which led to this waiver claim.

His major league track record is still fairly limited. He logged 2 1/3 innings for the Cards last year and added another three innings for the Dodgers this year. He has allowed five earned runs while striking out two, walking two and hitting one batter.

The Nats are presumably more interested in his minor league track record, which provides a far larger sample of work to look at. He has logged 231 innings on the farm from 2021 to the present with a 4.68 ERA. Dating back to the start of 2024, he has a 3.14 ERA in 71 2/3 innings, with a 24.3% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. He has also generated grounders on close to half the balls in play he’s allowed.

Loutos can also be optioned to the minors for the rest of this year and one additional season. The Nats had an open roster spot, so Loutos is essentially a free flier on a young arm with some intriguing numbers. He’ll head to Rochester for now but should be up in the big leagues whenever Washington needs a fresh bullpen arm.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Orioles Designate Emmanuel Rivera For Assignment, Option Heston Kjerstad

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The Orioles announced a number of roster moves today. Outfielder Cedric Mullins and infielder Jordan Westburg have both been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. In corresponding moves, the club has optioned outfielder Heston Kjerstad and designated infielder Emmanuel Rivera for assignment. The O’s also announced that outfielder Jordyn Adams, who was designated for assignment last week, has been sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk. The 40-man roster count drops to 38.

Kjerstad, 26, was the No. 2 overall pick back in 2020, though that selection represented a bit of draft-day creativity; he was generally viewed as a mid-first-round talent but signed with the O’s on an underslot deal at No. 2 overall, leaving Baltimore some extra money to pursue over-slot bonuses with others further down the line — the aforementioned Westburg and top prospect Coby Mayo among them.

The Orioles have given Kjerstad looks in each of the past three seasons now, but the 2025 campaign is the first where he’s been given a real run at anything close to regular playing time. It didn’t go well. Despite being largely shielded from left-handed pitching, the lefty-swinging Kjerstad hit just .192/.240/.327 with four homers, a 3.6% walk rate and a 26.9% strikeout rate in 167 turns at the plate. He’s improved his overall contact rate relative to 2023-24, but he’s chasing off the plate at borderline egregious levels (38.4% chase rate) and still swinging through pitches too often.

Kjerstad finds himself at something of a crossroads with the Orioles. He’ll still have one more minor league option remaining beyond the current season, but he’s now struggled to establish himself in three separate seasons. Colton Cowser is locked into one outfield spot long-term. Tyler O’Neill has an opt-out clause in his three-year contract that he does not presently appear likely to take (although a big finish to the season can always change that). Mullins is a free agent at season’s end, as is Ryan O’Hearn, which could open some outfield/designated hitter playing time. However, the O’s have prospects like Enrique Bradfield Jr., Jud Fabian, Vance Honeycutt and Dylan Beavers rising through the system — any of whom could also factor into those competitions for playing time.

It’s arguable that Kjerstad hasn’t really gotten a fair audition. He’s totaled 314 MLB plate appearances across three seasons and always been either platooned or had the specter of someone returning from the IL to take his spot and push him back to Triple-A Norfolk.

Other clubs might have given him a more traditional everyday opportunity, but the Orioles tend to prioritize matchups more than most and have frequently brought in veteran outfielders who’ve cut into Kjerstad’s potential playing time (e.g. O’Neill, Ramon Laureano, Dylan Carlson, Eloy Jimenez, Austin Slater). They make no secret about their endeavors to stockpile as much depth as possible, which positions them well for injuries but also results in scattershot opportunities for young players like Kjerstad, Mayo and since-traded prospects like Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby and Joey Ortiz.

For now, Kjerstad will head to Norfolk and look to get his swing back on track. However, he has little left to prove against Triple-A pitching. Kjerstad has played 132 games there, taken 591 plate appearances, and mashed at a .299/.382/.541 clip.

As for Rivera, he originally came to the O’s as one of those previously mentioned depth grabs. Baltimore claimed him off waivers last August, enjoyed a productive run of 27 games down the stretch, and tendered him a $1MM contract over the winter. Rivera never seemed likely to replicate the .364 average on balls in play or 22.2% homer-to-fly-ball ratio he logged with the O’s in 2024, however, and his offense has plummeted back down to his career norms in 2025. He’s taken 76 plate appearances and batted .232/.303/.275 — not far off his lifetime .243/.306/.363 slash in the majors.

The 28-year-old Rivera’s hard-contact numbers completely eroded this season. He’s a surehanded defender at the hot corner and has also played some first base in the majors. However, he’s out of minor league options, so the O’s couldn’t simply send him down. He’ll first need to clear waivers. Given his lack of track record and options, he could well pass through unclaimed, though he’s affordable enough that a team seeking short-term help at the hot corner could look to him as a stopgap between now and the trade deadline.

MLB rules stipulate that a player can be in DFA limbo for a maximum of one week, and waivers are a 48-hour process, so Rivera will be traded or placed on waivers within the next five days. If he clears, he’ll presumably accept a minor league assignment, as he did when the O’s passed him through waivers earlier this spring. Rejecting in favor of free agency would mean forfeiting the remainder of his $1MM guarantee, as Rivera does not have the five years of service needed to reject an outright assignment and retain his guaranteed salary.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! Sorry to not open this up for early questions or preview it in this morning’s Opener. We’re all working on slightly different schedules today with Anthony off for a few days — and today, in particular, with Darragh and me recording the podcast this morning — so I wasn’t sure exactly when it’d get underway! We’ll start a bit early and go for an hour or a bit more, as usual.

Guards Ball

  • What is the guardians plan at the deadline? Buy, sell some rentals or even controllable relievers, or stand pat?

Steve Adams

  • This is a boring part one of the answer, but it’s emblematic of modern baseball in a three Wild Card era: they won’t make that final call anytime soon. Most teams don’t pick a lane until there’s less than a week until the deadline. Cleveland is certainly a team that tends to wait. They’re only a game back in the Wild Card standings, so I don’t think they’re going to engineer a huge sale, barring a total collapse. I could see them listening on Carlos Santana regardless, since they could just plug Manzardo in at 1B.
  • I expect that they’ll be open to various situations that’d net them controllable outfielders or starting pitching options. The rotation depth there is not what it once was, and the gears at their pitching factor have slowed a bit recently — in part due to injuries.

Chris Young

  • I’m thinking of trading Adolis Garcia and Tyler Mahle to the Braves for Marcell Ozuna and Spencer Strider: What are your thoughts on my trade proposal?

Steve Adams

  • Cannot fathom the Braves giving up Strider in that deal
  • Or in general

Luis Rengifo

  • Do I have trade value at all?

Steve Adams

  • Sure. The contact skills are still good, and he’s hitting plenty of line drives. Overall quality of contact profile is poor, but he’s never been someone who hits the ball super hard with consistency even when he’s been at his best.

    I don’t think Rengifo’s going to fetch the Angels any kind of significant prospect haul, but they’re not going to make him a QO, he’s a free agent at season’s end, and the Angels aren’t going anywhere this season, so I fully expect him to be moved. It’ll probably be a modest return, but that’s not a bad thing. They got Ryan Zeferjahn in that type of return, and he’s a genuinely interesting bullpen piece for them now

Dave Dombrowski

  • will I be in the market for a player like jarren duran?

Steve Adams

  • I imagine two-thirds of the league will ask the Red Sox about Jarren Duran. And Wilyer Abreu. And probably Ceddanne Rafaela, too.

    The Red Sox have a lot of good outfielders, especially with Roman Anthony up.

    Duran’s going to cost something significant and something close to MLB ready. For the Phillies, maybe Mick Abel-plus. That sort of thing. (With the “plus” also being quite significant … not like, Abel plus some 18-year-old lotto tickets)

Judgement

  • Aaron judge.

Steve Adams

  • Hear he’s P good at this baseball thing, yes.

KC42

  • Still confused on the Braves decision to DFA Kimbrel after one inning when they still run out Montero on a daily basis. Kinda a slap in the face to an Icon to not even let him throw at Truist. AA has been questionable since the WS run.

Steve Adams

  • Braves fans don’t like to hear it, but the World Series run was kind of just Anthopoulos throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall and all of it somehow simultaneously sticking. Even he probably has to be in shock about how well all of those moves worked out.

    I agree to an extent that he’s done a lot of weird things since. There have been a lot of great moves. Sale/Grissom is one of the best trades in recent memory. Risky, sure, but great self-evaluation of Grissom and a well-timed move since he lost all trade value quickly thereafter. Paying a ton of money to buy low on Kelenic? Like $30MMish once you factor in luxury taxes… less so. Paying nearly $3MM to rent Rafael Montero was wild.

  • That’s the reason they’re keeping Montero over Kimbrel, though. They took on a notable chunk of his salary, while Kimbrel just got his prorated base for a day.

    Kimbrel’s minor league numbers look nice, but his velo is now below average and the command hasn’t been great even in AAA.

Joshua

  • Would Michael Soroka be a sneaky good trade candidate for a variety of contending teams? His era through 5 innings during his starts is just over 3.00, he has experience as a reliver and has excelled there, and is a FA to be so there is no long term money attached to him.

Steve Adams

  • Yeah. I don’t like Soroka as a starter but I loved him as a reliever in the offseason and thought he could’ve cashed in on a nice two-year deal that way. He almost certainly could have, I should say, but clear he wanted to start and that was going to limit his earning more. If it keeps going well, maybe gets the nice multi-year this winter.

    Teams might be wary of trading for a guy who prioritized starting as a free agent, and then immediately plugging him into a bullpen, but Soroka had to know that was a strong possibility when he signed on with the Nats. And he’s a professional who’d be getting a chance to chase a ring, so I’m sure it’d be fine.

    Broadly — yes, go get Soroka. Put him in the ’pen. He was really impressive as a reliever last year and I still think that’s his best role.

  • To the point you made, it’s not just that his results dip after five innings. He destroys opponents the firs time through the order and immediately turns into a pumpkin
  • .148/.175/.262 first time through a lineup
    .263/.311/.509 second time through
    .400/.483/.680 third time through
  • (2025 only there, I should clarify)

Steve

  • Are the TWINS still up for sale?

Steve Adams

John

  • Denzel Clarke. Enough said

Steve Adams

  • Guy is like peak “Superman” Pillar levels of fun to watch in the outfield

Seb

  • Do you believe the A’s will be selling or buying at the trade deadline?

Steve Adams

  • Selling short-term pieces, open to adding big leaguers who can be controlled several more years.

Astros fan

  • Why did this site go down for a week

Steve Adams

  • That… has never happened? Not sure what issue you ran into. Email through our contact form if you’re having some sort of problem

Joe

  • Adrian Houser for Nick Frasso. Who says no?

Steve Adams

  • If the Dodgers wanted Houser they could’ve just signed him for like a $2MM base

Front Row

  • Any guesses about a Hader to the Padres type deal at this year’s deadline. An impact player traded away by a contending team?

Steve Adams

  • Yandy/Brandon Lowe/Fairbanks from the Rays
    Peralta from the Brewers
    Clase from the Guardians, I suppose, but I think that’s more a fantasy that fans of other teams have than something Cleveland will do … but there will probably be a few rumors to that effect even if there’s minimal fire backing said smoke

Aaron,esq

  • Does Chris Sale get traded?

Steve Adams

  • We talked about this on the podcast we recorded this morning (cheap plug!).

    I tend to think ATL will go into the deadline with the mindset of “We’re keeping him. We’re trying to win in 2026,” but offers will escalate to the point where they have to give real thought to it — kind of similar to the Twins with Jose Berrios several years back.

    If he’s healthy, I can definitely see a team making the Braves bite the bullet.

    Again, it’s boring to say “it’s too early to definitively say yes or no right now,” but that’s the reality. For the time being, yes, I find it eminently plausible even though the Braves would tell you right now “We’re not thinking like that.”

BC

  • Do IKF and Bednar have much value? Should I trade them?

Steve Adams

  • Not a ton for IKF, but a contending team will at least want him for a utility role. Or his old pals in the Bronx could use a second baseman!

    Bednar has looked great since his recall from Triple-A … 30-to-3 K/BB ratio in 20 2/3 innings, 2.61 ERA, sub-2.00 FIP and SIERA.

    Every contending team should want Bednar, and his stock is trending way up again.

Aaron

  • Is Stanton coming back this week?

Steve Adams

  • If not this week, probably next. He’s on a rehab assignment starting today. Of course, given his injury history, we can’t just assume he gets through it setback-free

Earl Scheib

  • Do you think this absolutely horrible season forces Colorado’s ownership to consider selling or at least completely replacing the front office? I can still see envision Dick Monfort rationalizing the whole thing away.

Steve Adams

  • I have long since given up assuming that anything will snap Dick Monfort back to reality.

Brewers 3B/SS

  • Will Bo Bichette be available at the deadline?  If so, what package could the Brewers put together that would be fair for the rental?

Steve Adams

  • I doubt Bichette’s available. The Jays are firmly in playoff contention right now, and even if they’re several games back of a spot, they have a front office/GM that probably feels like turnover is coming if the team doesn’t win.

    You could maybe get more than the value of a potential QO by trading Bichette, but you’d really punch a hole in your 2025 chances. Unless the Jays are like 10 back of a playoff spot, I think he’s staying.

  • Brewers wouldn’t be a good fit anyway, unless Toronto is eating like all of the salary.

Martras

  • I’ve seen an increasing expectation the Twins might look to acquire more starting pitching at the deadline, but I don’t see it. By the time the deadline rolls back around, Lopez should be close to returning and #5ish rotation depth is still strong for the Twins. I don’t see any appetite for their ownership to spend, either. What is your take?

Steve Adams

  • Generally agree. If they have more injuries or if Lopez/Matthews are going to be out awhile past the deadline, I could see them going after a Heaney or someone, just to avoid a situation like they had last year where they’re trying to stay afloat in a playoff race but running out three rookie starters (Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews). But if they think they’re 2-4 weeks out from a Lopez return, if Zebby’s back by then and if the rest of the staff is healthy, I don’t know that they’ll be making aggressive pushes for SP help.

    Lots of “ifs” there, though.

AJ Preller

  • What will I have to give up to get Ramon Laureano? Can I pry him away mid June without a overpay?

Steve Adams

  • I just wouldn’t target/prioritize Laureano. He has decent numbers in a small sample this year, but the recent track record is bad, his K’s are up there, the defense isn’t what it once was and he’s not even hitting lefties well — he’s just BABIP’ing hard against righties (with some unexpected right-on-right pop). In general, I’d aim higher.

    But, as you’d expect after seeing me rattle off that glowing review — I don’t think the cost of acquisition would be all that high, no. Haha.

Wook

  • Brady House…July 1st call up?

Steve Adams

  • Anytime at this point wouldn’t surprise me too much.

Christian Walker

  • Am I living up to my contract even though negative war?  Is negative war for first baseman the new norm?

Steve Adams

  • I feel like it should go without saying that hitting .207/.269/.350 is decidedly not living up to a $20MM salary. K’s and chase way up, walks and power down. Not a great combo, but he’s still hitting the ball hard when he makes contact and still plays a good 1B defensively

JimmyKrakKorn

  • Is Clase The starting centre fielder in Toronto next year and Varsho moves to Left. We will need a lead off hitter when Bo Bichett moves to the Dodgers

Steve Adams

  • I don’t think Clase can/will hit, and even if he did, I’m not taking Varsho out of CF for him (or almost anyone else). Let him play LF and keep Varsho in center.

Dana Brown

  • A lot of buzz around Miguel Ullola. He isn’t listed in top 100 prospects but could he be a center piece in a trade for a top line SP or bat?

Steve Adams

  • I assume you’re talking locally in Houston? Ullola’s having a nice season in terms of his ERA and strikeout rate, but he’s walking almost 15% of his opponents in Triple-A. I don’t think he’s a centerpiece for a substantial deadline upgrade. But hey, only takes one team that loves him and thinks they can make some tweaks to bump his command a grade or two.

Redneck Rampage

  • Is Misiorowski coming up to Milwaukee a precursor to a Brewer trade? There’s a whole lot of pitchers up there even without Woodruff.

Steve Adams

  • Doubt it. The Brewers just view their Triple-A arms as an extension of the big league rotation. They had Quinn Priester lined up but have been getting good use of him as a bulk arm following openers with good success.

    They’re going to get innings for all of Misiorowski, Henderson, Patrick, Priester, etc. down the stretch. I expect that they’ll trade some starting pitching at the deadline, even if they’re contending (Civale/Quintana most likely, but they’ll get big offers on Peralta) and maybe narrow the group thusly post-deadline.

Friars

  • Have the Padres considered trading for Harrison Bader?

Steve Adams

  • The Twins are five over .500, +37 run differential and currently hold a Wild Card spot.

Binky

  • So when a player gets DFA’d what’s the benefit to the player in choosing FA and 1 minute later resigning a minor league deal vs instead of just accepting AAA right from thr get go.

Steve Adams

  • New opt-out language, different salary terms, the brief ability to see if anyone else will put you directly on a MLB roster elsewhere.

Defense wins Championships

  • Kimbrel makes sense for the Angels, right?

Steve Adams

  • Kimbrel feels like a very Angels move, if only because they love rolling the dice on former stars.

    Any team seeking bullpen depth (which is most of them) could sign Kimbrel — Braves included.

jed hoyer

  • Does a team take a chance on half a season of Julio Urias?

Steve Adams

  • Nope

Vladdy Jr

  • Is it possible that I’m just not a slugger?  Yes I hit the ball hard, but I can’t seem to get the launch angle for homers on the regular.  And how bad does my 500 million contract look if I’m good for only 25-30 home runs a year?

Steve Adams

  • Vlad hit .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers last year. If he’s “just” a 25-30 HR bat with those kinds of rate stats, they’ll be fine.

@Tayyyburrr

  • Does Julio Urias, Bauer or Wander ever play in MLB again?

Steve Adams

  • Nope

BB-STC

  • Assuming that he won’t be traded this year, what does Paddack’s next contract look like?

Steve Adams

  • Good command, sub-par K% and SwStr%. Average-ish velo. Two TJs under his belt. I’d have a hard time seeing anything past Taillon’s 4/68, and I’d probably take the under in years and AAV. Something in Eflin’s 3/40 range, perhaps?

Sad Reds Fan

  • Hunter Greene would be a Cy Young candidate if he could stay healthy and that makes me sad

Steve Adams

  • I have no great feedback other than to say, yes he would, and that’s understandable.

Kyle

  • After 3000Ks, is Clayton Kershaw unanimous HOF’er? Or will some writer hold playoffs against him

Steve Adams

  • I never expect anyone to get in unanimously, because some caveman writer will leave his ballot blank or like, only vote for one guy or something stupid. And then never own up to it.

    But it doesn’t matter. Kershaw’s a slam-dunk first ballot HOF

Kyle

  • Do you think the players will want to address in the next CBO the problem of clearly Ready prospects being held down until the summer to avoid them winning a full year via ROY?

Steve Adams

  • That wrinkle in and of itself is a product of the ROY rules which were designed to prevent Kris Bryant/Vlad Jr. situations where teams hold players down for 15 days to buy a whole year of service.

    This next iteration of service manipulation wasn’t hard to foresee. We were writing about how teams in situations like the O’s at the time could hold Rutschman (then a prospect) down until July or August even when they’re ready on Opening Day or mid-May for just this purpose.

    Maybe they’ll try to address this, sure, but clubs will find another way to try to game the system then. It’s only natural.

Thinking Cap

  • Any reason why Brendan Rodgers is still with the Astros & hasn’t been DFA’d? Highest K% of his career by far!

Steve Adams

  • I don’t really get what they’re doing there. He has 28 PA in the past month. He’s not hitting on the rare occasions they do use him. It’s not quite Austin Wynns/Reds level of non-usage, but it’s not far off. At a certain point — and I’d say we’re there — move on and make better use of the roster spot.

Josh Elliott

  • I watched most of a Guardians game about a week or so ago.  3 questions.  Is Angel Martinez available?  Can he play LF?  Would the Padres be able to get him without giving up Salas/De Vries?  Thank you!

Steve Adams

  • I assume you must’ve caught a good Martinez game, but there haven’t been many of them. He has a .257 OBP and the ninth-highest chase rate on balls off the plate among the 239 MLB hitters with 150+ PAs this year. That’s not the sort of upgrade I’m targeting. I’m surprised the Guardians are sticking with him.

Carl

  • Speaking of Kimbrel, he is a hall of famer?

Steve Adams

  • 440 saves, career 39 K% — I expect he’ll get in.

Backstops

  • How would you rank the following young catchers in projected career value: Henry Davis, Hunter Goodman, Alejandro Kirk, Logan O’Hoppe

Steve Adams

  • In the reverse order you listed them

Red Sox fan

  • Does Salas and De Vries get Duran

Steve Adams

  • Padres aren’t doing that
  • (But, yes, if the Padres actually offered that, I imagine the Red Sox would say “Um… ok?”)

Harry Ford

  • What tier of player could I return the Mariners if they put me on the block?

Steve Adams

  • He’s basically an MLB-ready, 55- or 60-FV catching prospect. He could rightly be the return for the overwhelming majority of players available at this year’s deadline.

    Jerry Dipoto also just unleashed a lengthy and largely unprompted ode to how much the org loves Harry Ford and how they think both he and Raleigh can coexist on the same roster long-term, so while I doubt he’s expressly untouchable, I also don’t think it’s necessarily likely that he’s traded.

Kyle

  • If the Pirates do trade Skenes, even if next year, is the return even bigger than Soto’s? Assuming health stays of course

Steve Adams

  • They won’t this year, but yes, it would be a larger return than Soto either this year or next.

J2F

  • Looks like Mil just promoted Misiorowski. Once Chandler gets the call, which one would you prefer for fantasy purposes?

Steve Adams

  • Chandler because the Pirates will keep him up. The Brewers will keep shuttling guys up and down all year as the situation necessitates. Need some length in the bullpen because Misiorowski went 5 innings but the game ran into the 11th? Misiorowski is going to get optioned.
  • Also, Chandler’s just the more highly regarded prospect. But the roster machinations in Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh make it an easier call even if you think Chandler is overrated and/or Misiorowski is underrated.

Claude Hopper

  • What constitutes an acceptable return for Freddy Peralta? They would need a starting corner infielder and a top 5 organizational prospect IMO, especially considering Freddy’s salary.

Steve Adams

  • I would agree with something along those lines, yeah. “top 5 organizational prospect” feels too nebulous. The Mariners’ No. 5 prospect and the Angels’ No. 5 prospect are wildly different things.

    Two clear-cut 50 FV or better prospects (basically top-100 guys), or one plug-and-play young infielder and a 50 FV prospect seems like a good starting point.

baseball gods laugh and laugh

  • Who wouldn’t Salas and De Vries get?

Steve Adams

  • I mean the two of them on their own might not get Skenes. And the Yankees or Mariners aren’t tanking their contending seasons by trading Judge or Raleigh in order to get two teenagers
  • But generally, yes, trading Salas+De Vries is a good recipe to get 99% of the league haha

LFGM

  • What do you see the Mets doing at the deadline? I look and I see a pretty complete team, but definitely need a BP arm

Steve Adams

  • Yeah, every contender is always in the mix for more bullpen help. Mets could use a lefty, in particular.

Seebs

  • What did they used to call and oblique injury? Between that and hamate bones it’s like players and trainers are inventing new maladies.  I’m old fashioned – give me hedge trimmer or coolers of deer meat injuries

Steve Adams

  • Haha, I’ve been working MLBTR since not terribly long after the days of Clint Barmes’ trip to the 15-day venison list, and I remember oblique and hamate injuries even back then.
  • Back in the 60s-70s, they probably called oblique injuries “big deal, your side hurts, play through it” and then released the guy after the season because his numbers tanked
  • Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve if you have more questions.

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Jed Hoyer: Cubs Planning To Look For Pitching At Deadline

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer joined the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman for an interview on the latest edition of The Show podcast (YouTube link), and discussed a number of topics about both his team and baseball at large.  Though we’re still several weeks away from the July 31 trade deadline, Hoyer did address his first-place team’s likeliest need.

“I think we’re going to be looking for pitching, both rotation and in the bullpen,” Hoyer said.  “I don’t think that’s a secret.  That’s not a knock on the guys we have.  But I think in today’s game, you’ve got to keep building depth.”

Justin Steele pitched in just four games before his season was prematurely ended by a UCL revision surgery, thus robbing Wrigleyville of one of its top arms for almost the entirety of the 2025 campaign.  Javier Assad hasn’t pitched at all this season due to a pair of oblique injuries, and since he only started playing catch a couple of weeks ago, it would seem that a return prior to the All-Star break might not be in the cards.  Shota Imanaga hasn’t pitched since May 4 due to a hamstring strain, and Hoyer said “the hope is” Imanaga will be able to return to the rotation before the end of June.

Without their two top pitchers and another hurler in Assad that expected to at least compete for a back-end rotation job, Chicago has done well to hold its own on the rotation front even with such a depleted set of starters.  Hoyer made a point of praising his in-house starters and his team’s defense for helping the run-prevention efforts, yet bringing at least one starting pitcher into the fold seems like a logical way to reinforce the roster heading into the pennant drive.

As one might expect, Hoyer didn’t share any hints about how big of a splash the Cubs are looking to make at the deadline, and still couched his comments within the framework of “if” the front office chose to make any additions by July 31.  It could be that Hoyer may not know the answer to such questions himself at the moment, as the Cubs’ trade pursuits may hinge on Imanaga’s assumed healthy status by July 31, Assad’s progress, or any other injuries or pitchers who are under- or overachieving in the coming weeks.

Hoyer also said that Porter Hodge is expected to return from his own oblique injury before June is out, which will bring another high-leverage candidate back to help the relief corps.  As Hoyer put it, however, bullpens are “always a work in progress…I don’t think you ever get to a point of feeling comfortable or feeling like it’s a set thing.”  With this in mind, the pen will be a focus both on July 31, and “we’ll keep on making small transactions [before the deadline] as well to get marginally better.”

On the flip side of the equation, Hoyer doesn’t see the Cubs doing much to alter its impressive core of position players on the trade front.  The Cubs have been one of baseball’s best hitting teams, with the powerful offense helping make up for any of the pitching staff’s shortcomings.

“Barring injury, there are probably some small things [we’ll consider] on the offensive side, but really I think that our position-playing group has been really good….The depth we have, top to bottom, I think we’re getting production both offensively and defensively from all our spots.  That’s made a huge difference.  As I think about it, pitching is the likely direction we would take if we were adding [at the deadline],” Hoyer said.

In terms of other topics, Hoyer said he wouldn’t comment publicly on either the existence of any extensions talks between the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, or even any talks between himself and the team on a new deal, as Hoyer’s current contract is up after the 2025 season.  Hoyer repeated past comments about how he hoped Tucker would stay in Chicago over the long term, and how much he has enjoyed his own 14-season tenure in the organization as first a general manager and then the head of the baseball operations department.

Hoyer did go into a little more detail about what might now be the most impactful trade of his five-year run as PBO — the July 2021 deadline deal that brought Pete Crow-Armstrong to the then-rebuilding Cubs from the Mets for Javier Baez, Trevor Williams, and some cash considerations.  New York took Crow-Armstrong 19th overall in the 2020 draft so it wasn’t as if PCA was an unknown quantity, yet a shoulder surgery limited the outfielder to only six games in his first pro season.

The Mets weren’t willing to discuss moving more highly-touted prospects at the time, as Hoyer said such players as Francisco Alvarez, Matt Allan, and Brett Baty were “off the table” in trade talks.  Mark Vientos “was a guy that was kind of discussed a little bit but it was clear they didn’t want to part with him,” Hoyer noted, so discussions turned towards elsewhere on New York’s minor league depth chart.

Crow-Armstrong “was sort of out of sight, out of mind, I believe,” Hoyer said.  “Looking back, I think his injury didn’t allow him to perform, and therefore I think he became a guy [the Mets] were willing to trade in that deal.  So I think it was good fortune for us that they did take some really good players off the table, and most of those guys are helping the Mets right now, but Pete’s injury allowed that to happen and it worked out really well for us.”

While Hoyer felt Crow-Armstrong was going to improve as a hitter during his second full Major League season, even the executive admitted to being a little surprised at the extent of the breakout.  PCA has been one of the very best all-around players in the sport, delivering 17 homers, 21 stolen bases, and a .277/.313/.559 slash line over 275 plate appearances while also playing Gold Glove-level defense in center field.

The Opener: Martinez, Montes De Oca, Stanton, Snell, Scherzer

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After catching up on the news from late last night, here are a few things we’ll be paying attention to around baseball today.

1. Justin Martinez, Christian Montes De Oca to go for imaging:

With two outs and a four-run lead in the ninth inning on Monday, the Diamondbacks were forced to pull Justin Martinez, as the hard-throwing right-hander felt tightness in his elbow (per Alex Weiner of AZ Sports). The D-backs would go on to win the game on a walk-off grand slam in the 11th inning, but they’re not out of the woods yet. The words “elbow tightness” are always scary, and especially so for a 23-year-old who hits triple digits and has already undergone Tommy John surgery once in his career. Martinez has not been quite as effective this year as he was in his breakout 2024 season, as higher walk and home run rates have inflated his ERA from 2.48 to 4.11. Nonetheless, losing the righty for any amount of time would be a tough blow for a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA and a team that has underperformed expectations this season. Arizona should know more about Martinez’s status after he goes for imaging today, but as Weiner notes, the team’s level of concern is high.

To make matters worse, Weiner reports that concern levels are also high for Martinez’s fellow right-handed reliever Christian Montes De Oca. The 25-year-old made his MLB debut over the weekend, pitching 2 2/3 scoreless innings against the Reds. He was unavailable last night due to discomfort in his right elbow (per Weiner), and he will also go for imaging today.

2. Giancarlo Stanton to begin rehab assignment:

Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton has been out all season with injuries in both elbows, but he will make a big step toward his return tonight. The 35-year-old is scheduled to play in his first rehab game with the Double-A Somerset Patriots, which the team confirmed this morning. While injuries have plagued Stanton throughout much of his tenure with the Yankees, he has continued to produce when healthy. In 2024, he hit 27 home runs and drove in 72 in just 114 games, putting up a .773 OPS and 116 wRC+. He also added seven more homers and a 1.048 OPS in the playoffs, helping the Yankees reach the World Series for the first time since 2009. So, New York will surely be happy to have his bat back whenever he is ready, but manager Aaron Boone will have his work cut out for him figuring out how to insert Stanton into the lineup. At this point in his career, Stanton is a DH only, but the Yankees already have a regular DH in Ben Rice. They also have Paul Goldschmidt at first base and a crowded outfield picture that includes Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Jasson Domínguez. Ultimately, having too many good hitters is the kind of problem every manager dreams of, but it will be worth watching to see how Boone divides up playing time once Stanton returns.

3. Bullpen sessions for former Cy Young winners:

Max Scherzer and Blake Snell have a few things in common. They’re the only active pitchers to have won a Cy Young in both leagues. They’ve both spent most of the season on the IL after signing a free agent contract with a new team over the winter. Today, they’re both expected to throw a bullpen session as they work toward their returns. Snell, who is currently with the Dodgers in San Diego, threw what the team called a “touch-and-feel” session on the weekend and will throw a proper bullpen today (per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Similarly, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports that Scherzer will also throw a bullpen session today, and if all goes well, he could potentially rejoin the Blue Jays after just a pair of Triple-A rehab starts. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith suggests Scherzer’s bullpen session could be tomorrow instead, but either way, Scherzer is ramping up for a rehab appearance on Friday. Due to injuries, both Toronto and L.A. have struggled to put together complete five-man rotations this year. Needless to say, the returns of Scherzer and Snell would make a big difference for both clubs.

Red Sox Promote Roman Anthony

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It’s finally Roman Anthony time. The Red Sox announced that the top prospect in baseball has been selected to the roster. Fellow outfielder Wilyer Abreu has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a left oblique strain. First baseman/outfielder Ryan Noda has been designated for assignment to open a 40-man spot.

Anthony, now 21, has been at or near the top of prospect lists for a while now. The Sox grabbed him with the 79th overall pick in 2022, a compensation pick they received after Eduardo Rodríguez rejected a qualifying offer and signed with the Tigers.

After a brief professional debut in that 2022 season, he took off in 2023. He climbed from Single-A to High-A to Double-A, putting up a combined .272/.403/.466 line and 140 wRC+. That made him a consensus top 25 prospect in the sport coming into 2024. He raised his stock even higher last year, slashing .291/.396/.498 for a 147 wRC+ between Double-A and Triple-A.

In addition to that work at the plate, Anthony tallied double-digit stolen base totals in both 2023 and 2024. He is also considered a strong outfield defender. By the end of 2024, he was already the #1 prospect in the league for some outlets. Some publications bumped him to #2 once Roki Sasaki was signed by the Dodgers, though others kept Anthony in the top spot.

Between Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel, the Sox had four tremendous prospects generating excitement this past offseason. The four were often mentioned in trade rumors and Teel was eventually flipped to the White Sox as part of the Garrett Crochet deal, though the other three remained and still provided a lot of optimism about the future.

Coming into 2025, with that hype and already having 35 big league games under his belt, a quick promotion for Anthony seemed possible. However, his time in Triple-A has dragged on, despite murmuring from all corners of the baseball world.

Initially, some of that was justified. He was dealing with some shoulder soreness in April and spent some time where he was only serving as the designated hitter and not playing the field. But that quickly passed and he kept putting up huge numbers at the plate. The question then became one of playing time in Boston. The Sox have spent most of this year with a crowded outfield mix consisting of Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela, with Rob Refsnyder and Campbell also factoring in.

That didn’t leave a clean path for Anthony to get playing time, especially with Rafael Devers taking up the designated hitter spot on an everyday basis. Still, many were calling for the Sox to simply call him up and figure it out.

Those calls grew louder when the Sox lost both of their corner infielders. First, Triston Casas suffered a season-ending knee injury. That led to much speculation about Devers getting plugged in at first in order to open at-bats for Anthony, or perhaps Anthony taking first base himself. Understandably, the Sox didn’t want to mess with Anthony’s development as an outfielder, so they never gave much consideration to that. Devers was unwilling to try his hand at first base. Then third baseman Alex Bregman went on the IL with a quad injury that could keep him out for a couple of months, but the Sox never seemed to really consider the possibility of asking Devers about going back there.

As all that was going on, Anthony continued to put up massive numbers for Worcester. As of today, he has a .288/.423/.491 line and 146 wRC+. He has ten home runs and three steals in 58 games. His 19.2% walk rate is almost as high as his 21.1% strikeout rate. Now, finally, it seems like this Abreu injury will open the door for him to get to the big leagues.

As the season drags along, the playing time puzzle might return. That will depend on Abreu’s injury and how long it will take him to get back. At some point, maybe Masataka Yoshida will finally get healthy and re-enter the equation.

It’s possible things will work out organically. Other injuries may arise before those guys heal up. Anthony might struggle, as even the best prospects can sometimes need a bit of time to get their feet wet in the big leagues. Campbell also followed a hot April with a rough May. If he doesn’t get back on track, perhaps he could get optioned to the minors with Rafaela moving to the infield. But on the other hand, Rafaela is the best defensive center fielder of the bunch. Duran and Anthony can play up the middle but each is considered a better fit for a corner. There’s also the shortstop question, as Trevor Story has been heating up of late but is having a bad season overall. Mayer is up to cover for Bregman at third but hasn’t quite fully clicked in the big leagues yet.

There will also be long-term things to be sorted out. The crowded outfield situation has led to trade rumors surrounding Duran. Bregman could opt out after this season and it’s unclear if the Sox would be willing to return Devers to that spot. Casas is expected back by next year’s spring training but he has also been in trade rumors. Devers isn’t willing to play there now but perhaps he would be more amenable with an offseason to prepare. Campbell has dabbled with some first base drills but hasn’t officially played there yet.

In time, there should be more clarity on the club’s long-term plans. For now, Sox fans can get excited about Anthony’s emergence and hope that it helps turn around a middling season. The Sox are currently 32-35, fourth in the American League East and four games back of a Wild Card spot. Even if they can’t engineer a comeback this year, players like Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Rafael, Duran, Abreu and others can be affordably controlled for years to come, giving the club an exciting core to build around.

As a consensus top prospect, Anthony is eligible for the prospect promotion incentive. Since the Sox didn’t promote him early enough to get a full service year the traditional way, they won’t be able to earn an extra draft pick based on awards voting this year. Anthony can technically earn himself a full year of service time by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, though that will be tough to do. Players like Jacob Wilson, Shane Smith and even Anthony’s teammate Carlos Narváez have a big headstart on him. Even if he performs well, it would be hard to catch up to those guys with more than a third of the season already in the books.

If Anthony manages to pull that off, he would hasten his path to free agency by a year. Otherwise, he would be on pace to hit the open market after 2031 at the earliest, though future optional assignments could also impact that timeline.

Noda, 29, was just acquired from the Angels a few weeks ago in a cash deal. He’s a three true outcomes guy, with lots of homers and walks but also strikeouts. In 606 big league plate appearances, he has a 34.2% strikeout rate, 15% walk rate and 17 homers. That adds up to a .212/.344/.369 line and 107 wRC+. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has 574 minor league plate appearances with 25 home runs, a 16% walk rate and 28.2% strikeout rate. That leads to a .259/.395/.474 line and 125 wRC+.

The Sox grabbed him for extra first base depth with the Casas injury but now risk losing him. DFA limbo can last as long as a week but the waiver process takes 48 hours, so Boston could take five days to explore trade interest. He is still optionable for the rest of this year and one additional season. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Sox as non-roster depth.

Christopher Smith of MassLive first reported that Anthony was being promoted. A few minutes earlier, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported that a promotion was possible. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first noted that Abreu was going on the IL, though Alex Speier of The Boston Globe had previously suggested that an IL stint for Abreu was likely.

Photos courtesy of Ashley Green, Imagn Images

The Astros Are (Again) Not Getting Much From A Pricey First Base Signing

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The Astros signed Jose Abreu to a three-year, $58.5MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason, seemingly sealing up a first base position that was one of the few weak links on the club’s World Series-winning roster from the prior season.  Abreu was entering his age-36 season and his power numbers had dropped off considerably in 2022, but the former AL MVP still delivered a strong overall year at the plate by hitting .304/.378/.446 in what proved to be his final year with the White Sox.  Coming off an impressive 137 wRC+, Abreu’s “professional hitter” track record indicated that he would continue to be productive into his late-30s, making his deal a wise investment for Houston on paper.

In practice, of course, things quickly went south for Abreu in his new home.  After hitting only .237/.296/.383 in 594 PA in 2023, Abreu hit so poorly (.124/.167/.195) over his first 120 PA of the 2024 season that the Astros chose to release the veteran in June of last year, and simply ate the remainder of his contract.  Right now, roughly $11.9MM is still owed to Abreu through the remainder of the 2025 season.

Even with such a big chunk of Abreu’s deal still on the books for 2025, the Astros certainly felt the need to address first base in a major fashion this past winter.  It should be noted, technically, that Christian Walker was Houston’s backup plan for the first base position.  After acquiring Isaac Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker trade, the Astros then seemingly had another deal lined up with the Cardinals to land Nolan Arenado, which would’ve installed Arenado at third base and Paredes as Houston’s new first baseman.  Instead, Arenado used his no-trade protection to reject the move to Houston, with later reporting revealing that Arenado wasn’t closing the door on the Astros entirely as a landing spot, but simply wanted a bit more time to evaluate the situation given that Houston had just dealt away a superstar in Tucker.

Rather than wait for Arenado, the Astros instead made a splash on the free agent market by signing Walker to a three-year, $60MM contract.  This made Paredes the new third baseman, and that part of the equation has at least worked out since Paredes is off to a great start in his first year in an Astros uniform.

To fill first base, then, the Astros seemed to be solidifying things quite nicely with Walker, a two-time Fielding Bible Award-winning defender.  Walker had also hit .253/.332/.464 with 141 home runs over 3171 PA for the Diamondbacks from 2019-24, posting above-average offensive numbers except for his injury-marred 2021 campaign.  He was showing no signs of slowing down as he entered his age-34 season, and in the eyes of many observers, Walker was a much surer thing at first base than Pete Alonso, who is four years younger and had to wait much longer than Walker did to land a new contract.

The 36-29 Astros are in first place in the AL West, and appear to be once again lining up to make a run in October.  The 2025 season is also only 65 games deep, so we’re still dealing with relatively small sample sizes when discussing players who are or aren’t performing well.  Yet, even with the caveat that Walker’s slow start isn’t really holding the Astros back to any great extent, it still isn’t good that his performance has suddenly cratered over his first two-plus months in Houston.

Through 260 plate appearances, Walker is hitting .207/.269/.350 with eight home runs, and only 16 qualified players have a lower wRC+ than Walker’s 76 figure.  His 6.2% walk rate and 27.7% strikeout rate are each far below the league average, and on pace to be Walker’s worst BB% and K% rates over any of his full Major League seasons.  Walker’s barrel and hard-hit ball rates are slightly down from his 2024 numbers but are still solid, yet his Isolated Power metric has plummeted from .217 in 2024 to just .143 in 2025.

A .258 BABIP is part of the problem, so again, it is certainly possible Walker’s numbers might normalize once more of his hard contact starts translating into hits.  However, Walker is chasing more pitches out of the zone than usual, and his 47.9% pull rate is well above the 42% pull rate he carried into the 2025 season.  One interpretation could be that the right-handed hitting Walker is focusing a little too much on taking advantage of Daikin Park’s short porch in left field, yet his splits pour cold water on that theory.  Walker is hitting .250/.321/.431 at his new home ballpark, and only .165/.217/.273 on the road.

Another set of splits might offer another hint, as Walker has a .662 OPS over 227 PA against right-handed pitching and a .320 OPS in 33 PA against left-handed pitching.  Walker’s career splits against righties and lefties are almost exactly even, yet his lack of production against southpaws (when he should have the advantage) may not stand out as much as how rarely Walker has gotten to face left-handed pitching.

This could be a bit of a statistical fluke, but the Astros’ overall lineup is absurdly lopsided in favor of righty bats.  With Yordan Alvarez and Taylor Trammell on the injured list, rookie Jacob Melton and two backup catchers (Cesar Salazar and the switch-hitting Victor Caratini) provide the only left-handed balance in Houston’s current mix of position players.  Opposing teams have little reason to deploy their lefty pitchers against the Astros’ phalanx of right-handed batters, and Walker may be having some trouble adjusting to this new reality.

If Walker’s batting numbers are a letdown, his glovework is perhaps more shocking than anything.  Walker has produced -4 Defensive Runs Saved and +1 Outs Above Average over 543 1/3 innings at the Astros’ first base spot this year, down from a +7 DRS and +13 OAA in 2024.  Adding to this puzzling situation is the fact that Walker is now suddenly a relative weak link on one of baseball’s better defensive teams — Houston ranks second in baseball in OAA (18), and Fangraphs’ overall defensive ranking system puts the Astros ninth in the league.

The overall result for Walker is a -0.3 fWAR to show for his first 63 games with the Astros.  Needless to say, it is not what Houston expected from its biggest free agent signing, especially since inking Walker cost the Astros not just $60MM but also two compensatory draft picks, since Houston exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024.

Perhaps if Abreu’s contract wasn’t still sitting on the Astros’ books, Walker’s performance could just be written off as a slump, or an adjustment period for a player moving to the AL West after eight years in the National League.  But, Houston fans can be forgiven for sounding some alarm bells over an underwhelming free agent first baseman, especially with Jose Altuve’s own struggles and Alvarez’s uncertain injury situation casting some shadows over the Astros’ good start.  There is plenty of time for Walker to turn things around, of course, and to provide some more concrete evidence that Houston’s first base issue has been properly solved.

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