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Orioles Claim Daniel Johnson

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The Orioles announced that they have claimed outfielder Daniel Johnson off waivers from the Giants. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. The O’s also selected the contract of right-hander José Espada and optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk. Their 40-man roster was at 39, meaning they needed to open one spot. They did so by designating righty Houston Roth for assignment.

The O’s clearly like Johnson. They signed him to a minor league deal ahead of the 2024 season. He was called up in September of last year but only got into one game before being optioned back down to the minors. He was outrighted off the roster at the end of the season and elected free agency. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants this year and got selected to the big league roster in June. He was designated for assignment a few days ago and the O’s have taken the opportunity to bring him back.

Johnson’s major league track record is still fairly limited. He has 126 plate appearances dating back to his 2020 debut with a .193/.238/.336 slash. The O’s are presumably more interested in his minor league track record. From the start of 2023 to the present, he has 1,236 minor league plate appearances with a combined .267/.333/.469 line and 107 wRC+. He also has 54 stolen bases in that time, though has been caught stealing 19 times in the process.

Ahead of the deadline, the O’s subtracted from their outfield by trading Cedric Mullins, Ramón Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. Since then, they lost Colton Cowser and Tyler O’Neill to the injured list. That leaves them with a current outfield mix of Jeremiah Jackson, Dylan Carlson, Greg Allen, Jordyn Adams and Ryan Noda. Johnson could jump right into that group, though he’s also optionable for the rest of the year and could end up with Triple-A Norfolk.

As for Espada, he signed a minor league deal with the O’s a couple of weeks back. The fact that he has been added to the 40-man roster but optioned to the minors suggests that there was some kind of opt-out or upward mobility clause in the deal. The O’s seemingly don’t have an immediate big league roster spot for him but also didn’t want him to get away, so they’ve added him to the 40-man.

Since joining the O’s, he has tossed six Triple-A innings, allowing four earned runs via four hits and two walks while striking out eight. He has just one inning of big league experience, which came with the 2023 Padres. In the minors, he has generally been able to miss bats but also miss the strike zone. He was with the Padres on a minor league deal until being released recently, when he signed with the O’s. Between the two organizations, he has thrown 43 1/3 innings on the farm this year with a 3.74 earned run average, 37.1% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate.

In addition to their aforementioned outfielders, the Orioles also traded away a number of relievers at the deadline. Bryan Baker, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Domínguez and Andrew Kittredge were all sent out the door in July, opening up bullpen opportunities. Espada isn’t getting called up today but his roster spot puts him in good position to get called up later.

As for Roth, he was just selected to the roster a couple of weeks ago, in the wake of the Domínguez trade. He was optioned down to the minors a few days later before appearing in a game, so he’s still looking to make his major league debut.

With the trade deadline having passed, he is destined for the waiver wire in the coming days. Somewhat similar to Espada, his minor league work features strikeouts and walks in big numbers. Primarily a starter earlier in his career, he has worked exclusively as a reliever since the start of 2024. In that time, he has thrown 92 innings on the farm with a 2.93 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate.

He still has a full slate of options and almost no service time. If any other club is interested enough in his minor league work to put in a claim, he could be a cheap depth arm for the foreseeable future.

Photo courtesy of Eakin Howard, Imagn Images

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! We'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you prefer! Talk to everyone in a bit.
  • Hello! Let's get underway

Dirt

  • Michael Harris has gotten on track but Ozzie still isn't doing much with the bat. With Nacho Alvarez getting seasoned, do you think the Braves will pick up the option on Albies, then trade him or just let him walk? What will AA do about the starting rotation?

Steve Adams

  • I don't see any scenario where the Braves just buy him out and let him walk to save what would be a net $4MM. Even if they're just done with him, a team would absolutely trade for Albies at a year and $7MM -- especially with a subsequent option for the same amount.Terrible year (well, yearS, plural) or not, Albies is a 28-year-old former All-Star 2B with multiple 30-homer seasons under his belt.Conversely, open up our Contract Tracker -- included with your subscription! -- to check out what kind of position players a year and $7MM can buy you in free agency:
  • https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/contracttracker?name=&team=0&position=H...
  • You're looking at bounceback shots in the dark for mid-30s veterans like AJ Pollock, Tommy Pham, Carlos Santana, Robinson Chirinos, etc. It's just not a compelling group, and it's only exacerbated in recent years as the general cost of signing free agents has increased.Add in the value the second $7MM option brings if Albies rebounds next year, and he'd still have legitimate trade value, even coming off a down year.
  • That's not to say they'd get a top-100 prospect or any kind of real farm-altering prospect, but they could get something with some actual value and not just completely need to dump the money he's owed.

Who gets to The Show 1st?

  • Who gets to The Show first? Bubba Chandler or Jonah Tong? When and why?

Steve Adams

    • Chandler. He's been in Triple-A for a full year now. Tong hasn't thrown a pitch in AAA (he's being promoted there today).
    • I'd imagine that after August 15, once there are few enough remaining days on the calendar that prospects who are called up can retain their rookie status heading into 2026, Chandler's developmental issues will magically be sorted out and he'll be in the majors

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Mike Elias Discusses Possible Prospect Promotions

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2025 is going to be a lost season for the Orioles. They fell back in the standings early and eventually sold off multiple players ahead of the trade deadline. For the remainder of the season, the focus is on giving time to players who could help in the future. Despite that, notable prospects like Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers haven’t been called up to get their feet wet in the big leagues. In an interview with Danielle Allentuck of The Baltimore Banner, general manager Mike Elias didn’t deny that the calendar might be a consideration.

“I think we have to be aware of the rules and, in general, systems that are in place that benefit players and benefit organizations,” Elias said. “You just kind of hope that that stuff synchronizes well with whatever the baseball need or player development need is.”

That answer was in response to a question about whether Basallo and Beavers might be called up later in the season, once the club can keep them as rookies heading into 2026. That’s significant due to the prospect promotion incentives. Under the PPI rules, a player can earn his club an extra draft pick under certain conditions. The player has to be on two of three top 100 prospect lists between Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN. If such a player is called up early enough in a season to earn a full year of service time, then goes on to win Rookie of the Year or finish top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration, the club gets an extra draft pick just after the first round.

The PPI rules were put in place to combat service time manipulation. Previously, it was common for players to be kept in the minors early in a season even if they were clearly ready for the big leagues. If a player wasn’t called up until late April, the player’s path to free agency would be delayed by a year, a clear benefit for the team.

Now, however, it seems that late August in the new late April. It has now become common for clubs to promote these players late enough in a season to get some experience but keep rookie status going into the following campaign. A player exhausts rookie eligibility by spending 45 days in the big leagues or logging 50 major league innings or 130 at-bats. A team can therefore promote a player in the second half of August, keep the innings or at-bats below the relevant threshold and keep the potential of earning a future draft pick on the table.

The O’s have gone down this road before. They promoted Gunnar Henderson in late August of 2022, the first year of the PPI rules. He got into 34 games and stepped to the plate 116 times, keeping his rookie status for 2023. He went on to win Rookie of the Year, netting the O’s an extra draft pick in 2024, which they used to take Griff O’Ferrall 32nd overall. The Diamondbacks did essentially the same thing with Corbin Carroll.

Players like Shea Langeliers, Brett Baty, Cade Cavalli, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Ken Waldichuk, Spencer Steer, Oswald Peraza, Triston Casas, Josh Jung, Ezequiel Tovar, Logan O’Hoppe, Francisco Alvarez and Bo Naylor were also promoted in late August, September or October of that year. In 2023, players like Masyn Winn, Nolan Schanuel, Noelvi Marté, Parker Meadows, Everson Pereira, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Wicks, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jasson Domínguez, Austin Wells, Ronny Mauricio, Connor Phillips, Jordan Lawlar, Evan Carter, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Heston Kjerstad and Junior Caminero got calls in the final 45 days of the season. In 2024, the list included Jace Jung, Dylan Crews, Rhett Lowder, Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe and Kevin Alcántara.

That’s not to say that all of those players were intentionally held down due to the PPI rules, but it doesn’t seem to be a coincidence that late-season promotions are now the norm. If a team is considering a promotion for a player in the summer, they have an incentive to wait. That waiting could potentially hurt the team, though the club may not care in some cases. Many clubs are often out of contention by this part of the schedule, as the Orioles are now.

It’s unfortunate for the players, who could otherwise get up earlier and get a bit more time in the big leagues. But if there’s a line somewhere, teams are going to find ways to be on the beneficial side of it, as Elias essentially admitted.

Waiting until late April or May is still a possibility but teams can be burned that way. The flip side of the PPI rules is that a player can earn a full service year even if not promoted early enough. The Pirates promoted Paul Skenes in May of last year but he won Rookie of the Year anyway, earning himself a full service year. The O’s also experienced this when Adley Rutschman finished second in 2022 Rookie of the Year voting, though his promotion was delayed by a spring training injury. Being held down for a few extra weeks in the summer isn’t ideal, but the players surely prefer this to the pre-PPI setup.

The comments from Elias line up with the aforementioned patterns of prospect promotions. We are sure to see a large number of prospects called up in late August and in September. It seems likely that Basallo and Beavers will be two of them.

Basallo, 20, is already one of the top prospects in baseball. Baseball America has him at #7 and MLB Pipeline at #8. ESPN did a top 50 update in May with Basallo in the #13 spot. He has 23 home runs in just 73 Triple-A games this year, leading to a .279/.384/.612 line. There are still some questions about whether he can stick at catcher or if he’s destined for a move to first base, though he’s still quite young and could make further improvements with his defense. Assuming the O’s make a point of not exhausting his rookie status, he’ll be a lock to be PPI eligible in 2026.

Beavers, 24, is more of a borderline case. BA currently has him in the #83 spot but he’s not on MLB Pipeline’s list. He is slashing .305/.422/.526 in Triple-A this year with 18 home runs, a 16.5% walk rate and 22 stolen bases. His PPI eligibility will depend upon how those top 100 lists are shuffled between now and Opening Day.

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The trade deadline is now in the rear-view mirror. Do you have a question about one of the moves or a team’s general approach? Or perhaps you’re looking ahead to next year and wondering about free agency. If you have a question on those topics or anything else baseball-related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Cubs, Nicky Lopez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs and veteran infielder Nicky Lopez agreed to a minor league contract over the weekend, as first indicated on the MiLB.com transaction log. Lopez opted out of a minor league deal with the Yankees last week and quickly returned for what’s now a third stint with the Cubs organization this season alone. Lopez was already back in the lineup with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate yesterday.

Lopez signed a minor league deal with Chicago back in February. He didn’t make the big league roster in camp and took an opt-out in his deal, after which he signed a major league pact with the Angels. That proved to be a short-lived stint, with Lopez lasting only five games before being cut loose. After clearing waivers, Lopez signed a major league deal with the Cubs and appeared in 14 games off the bench before being designated for assignment again. He’s since signed minor league deals with the D-backs and Yankees but opted out of both.

It’s been a dizzying season, transaction-wise, for the versatile Lopez. He’s signed contracts with four different organizations but tallied only 19 games and 28 plate appearances in the majors. Lopez has gone just 1-for-24 with four walks (and only three strikeouts) in that tiny sample of sparse playing time. His Triple-A work between the Cubs, D-backs and Yankees has (of course) been better than that — but still not great. In 42 games, he’s taken 178 turns at the plate and batted .259/.309/.315.

Lopez has rarely provided much help with the bat, however. He’s the consummate glove-first utility infielder. While he did post an out-of-the-blue .300/.365/.378 performance in 565 plate appearances with the 2021 Royals, Lopez has limped to a .229/.300/.283 big league batting line in parts of four subsequent seasons and carries a modest .245/.310/.311 line in 2374 plate appearances as a major leaguer.

Though he’s lacking at the plate, Lopez is a roughly average runner with a plus glove all around the infield. He’s spent more than 2300 innings at both middle infield positions and drawn high-end grades from Statcast at each position. Defensive Runs Saved isn’t as keen on his work at shortstop but grades him as an elite second baseman. Lopez hasn’t spent as much time at the hot corner (433 innings), but both Statcast’s Outs Above Average (9) and DRS (6) feel he’s been outstanding there.

The Cubs’ needs in the infield don’t look as pressing after Willi Castro was added at the deadline and now that top prospect Matt Shaw has caught fire (.328/.349/.770, seven homers in 63 plate appearances post-All-Star break). But Lopez offers some versatility and depth at multiple positions, and he could be an option to join the club when rosters expand to 28 in September, providing skipper Craig Counsell with some late-game options in terms of both pinch-running and defensive shuffling.

The Opener: Javier, Buxton, Brewers

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Here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball today:

1. Cristian Javier makes his return:

Cristian Javier was a key piece of the Astros’ World Series-winning squad in 2022, earning himself a five-year, $64MM contract extension with his performance that year. He followed that up with his first qualified season as a full-time starter in 2023. While he wasn’t as sharp as he’d been the year before, he was still an important innings eater, tying for the team lead in starts (31) and starting another three contests in October. Unfortunately for Javier and the Astros, he wasn’t able to participate in the team’s next postseason push. The right-hander suffered a UCL injury in May 2024, ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery after just seven starts.

Over the offseason, Javier suggested he’d be back at some point following the 2025 All-Star break, while GM Dana Brown said he could be pitching for the Astros again as soon as late July. On Sunday, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that Javier would take the ball tonight against the Red Sox. If late July was the original goal, a mid-August return is only slightly behind schedule. Considering how long and difficult the road to come back from Tommy John can be, Javier’s timely return is a good sign for Houston. With the Mariners breathing down their necks in the AL West and a serious lack of rotation depth behind co-aces Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, the Astros are surely glad to have Javier back in the fold. They’ll hope he can rediscover his 2022 form, but even the 2023 version of Javier would be a much-needed reinforcement for this club.

2. Will the Twins activate Byron Buxton today?

On Sunday, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reported that oft-injured superstar Byron Buxton was likely to rejoin the Twins during their upcoming series against the Yankees, possibly as soon as tonight. Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune offered a similar update, noting that Buxton is traveling with the team to New York and could be activated for the series opener.

The center fielder has been on the shelf since just before the trade deadline with inflammation in his left rib cage. Prior to his injury, he was enjoying arguably the best season of his career to date, and Minnesota will hope to see him pick up right where he left off. Despite selling big before the deadline, the Twins have been playing well in August, taking their last two series against the Tigers and Royals – a pair of division rivals with playoff aspirations. While their playoff chances are still slim, they’re now only five games below .500. Having a healthy Buxton for the final seven weeks of the schedule could perhaps help them to salvage something from a highly disappointing season.

3. Can the Brewers make it 10 in a row?

The Brewers have yet to lose a game in August. After sweeping the Nationals, Braves, and Mets, they’re 9-0 on the month and comfortably ahead of the Phillies for the best record in MLB. Tonight, they’ll go for a 1oth consecutive win, this time against the Pirates. Staff ace Freddy Peralta was originally expected to take the bump, but he’s been swapped out for former Pirate Jose Quintana, who will face off against Andrew Heaney in a battle of veteran left-handers. Peralta will take the ball tomorrow instead, when he’ll face fellow 2025 All-Star Paul Skenes.

After winning 11 in a row from July 6-21, Milwaukee already boasts the longest winning streak in the NL this year. They’re still four wins away from tying the Twins for the longest winning streak in MLB this season (Minnesota won 13 straight in May), but with a win tonight, the Brewers will become the only team with multiple 10-game winning streaks in 2025. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are the only other clubs with double-digit win streaks so far.

Justin Verlander “Would Like To Continue Pitching” In 2026

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Justin Verlander’s 20th big league season hasn’t been one of his standout years, as he now has a 4.53 ERA over 99 1/3 innings following today’s tough outing (five earned runs on 11 hits and a walk over five innings) against the last-place Nationals.  Between these numbers and the 5.48 ERA Verlander posted over 90 1/3 frames during his injury-marred 2024 season, it is easy to speculate that time has finally caught up to the future Hall-of-Famer.

However, Verlander wants to keep going, telling the San Francisco Standard’s John Shea that he wants to return in 2026.  This isn’t exactly new news since Verlander has previously indicated that he would like to pitch into his mid-40s, and he turns 43 in February.  However, he did attach some injury-related caveats to his plans, which makes sense given the health concerns Verlander has dealt with in recent years.

“At this point in my career, if something goes really wrong, I’m not going to rehab a surgery or anything,” Verlander said.  “I always understand that it could be it, but I think physically, I’ve shown some good health this season.  As I’ve been on the mound, things have started to get better and better.  To me, that’s a good sign with all the work I put in after my nerve injury last year, which notoriously takes a long time.  The ball’s rolling in the right direction, and I would like to continue pitching.  You never know.  It’s a fickle game too, but I think the stuff is still there.”

The Giants signed Verlander to a one-year, $15MM free agent deal last winter, as San Francisco chose to invest in Verlander’s history rather than his more immediate struggles in 2024.  The right-hander had a 4.33 ERA over his first 52 innings before a pectoral strain cost him about a month of playing time from mid-May to mid-June.  Verlander’s overall production has been about the same since returning from the 15-day IL, though it seemed like he was turning a corner by posting a 2.66 ERA in the 23 2/3 innings prior to today’s clunker against Washington.

While a lost month isn’t insignificant, it is understandable that Verlander is a lot more confident about his health now than he was last year, when he was limited by both early-season shoulder problems and then his nerve injury in his neck.  Verlander admitted last September that he probably tried to return too quickly from his neck problem, and his lack of results led the Astros to leave him off their playoff roster.  Comparatively speaking, a pec strain is a much less serious type of injury, and if Verlander can get through the remainder of the 2025 campaign in good shape, it will line him up well to explore a return for next year.

Another one-year contract seems inevitable given Verlander’s age, and what could be two years of unimpressive numbers if he can’t get things turned around during the rest of the Giants’ schedule.  Beyond just the bottom-line ERA, Verlander’s Statcast numbers have a troubling amount of blue shade, with below-average strikeout and walk rates.  The latter statistic is notable since Verlander hadn’t posted a below-average walk rate since 2017 — he had a very impressive 5.3 BB% during the 2018-24 seasons.

As much as front offices are more concerned with future performance rather than past results, Verlander’s track record is hard to ignore.  He was still posting elite numbers as recently as 2022, when he won his third career Cy Young Award to help lead the Astros to a World Series title (for the second ring of Verlander’s career).  The righty followed that year up with a less-elite but still impressive 2023 season that saw Verlander deliver a 3.22 ERA across 162 1/3 innings with the Mets and Astros, though his strikeout rate dropped off dramatically this year and has yet to recover.

Chances are another team will take a shot at signing Verlander to see if he can recapture a bit of his old magic in his age-43 season.  Playing for a contender will surely be at the top of Verlander’s priority list, so a return to San Francisco could hinge on whether or not the former ace thinks the Giants are ready to turn the corner and make a playoff push in 2026.  The Giants were reportedly open to trading Verlander before the deadline, as part of the team’s desire to move some short-term veteran contracts.

There is no doubt Verlander will be heading to Cooperstown when he eventually hangs up the cleats, but sticking around for another season will push him even further up several all-time leaderboards.  In recording six strikeouts against the Nationals today, Verlander now has 3503 career Ks, making him the tenth pitcher in MLB history to top the 3500-strikeout threshold.

Latest On Shane McClanahan

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Shane McClanahan has been sidelined all season by a triceps nerve injury that arose during Spring Training.  This latest issue added to what was already an extended absence for the left-hander following Tommy John surgery in August 2023, and it has now been over two years since McClanahan threw his last pitch in a Major League game.

Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander gave a sobering update on McClanahan’s status during a radio appearance on WDAE on Friday (hat tip to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times), and the lack of any new information provides fresh doubt that we’ll see McClanahan in action this year.  The southpaw is still dealing with “lingering symptoms,” according to Neander, and is “not getting over the hump” in terms of readiness.

“No huge setbacks, but also no huge progress or breakthroughs.  The clock’s obviously ticking at this point as we sit here today….We’re not getting the progress that we or certainly he is hoping for.  Really unfortunate.  But we’ve got to do what’s best for him and take care of him and try to stay at it the best we can.”

It seemed like McClanahan was on the road to recovery when he started a minor league rehab assignment in July, but after three outings, he was shut down due to biceps tendinitis.  Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash told MLB.com and other reporters on July 28 that McClanahan “felt okay, nothing great” after a game of catch from a 60-foot distance.

Neander didn’t mention the biceps problem so it would seem like that injury has been resolved.  However, the lingering nerve problem “is still in play just enough.  This is a new one to all of us really, and in many regards to the baseball community.  So we’re learning as we go.”

Selected 31st overall by the Rays in the 2018 draft, McClanahan posted a 3.02 ERA, 46.8% grounder rate, 28% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate over 404 2/3 innings during the 2021-23 seasons.  After finishing seventh in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, McClanahan followed with a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2022, and he was named to the AL All-Star roster in both 2022 and 2023.  By all appearances it seemed like McClanahan was emerging as an ace of Tampa’s rotation, before his career was suddenly put on ice.

As Neander noted, McClanahan doesn’t have much time remaining before the season is over.  The unclear nature of nerve injuries means that McClanahan could technically wake up tomorrow and feel fine, yet it might take such a sudden turn-around to give the lefty a chance at a 2025 return.  Given that he is still limited to light throwing, McClanahan would still need at least a month for a full throwing progression (i.e. bullpen sessions, live batting practices, and several minor league rehab games) that would get him back to game readiness.

If he is physically able, returning even for one appearance with the Rays would surely give McClanahan some peace of mind heading into the offseason.  Building up enough arm strength to return as a reliever wouldn’t take as long as it would take to prepare for a starter’s workload, so a temporary move to the bullpen could be possible if McClanahan simply wants to pitch in any capacity.  On the other hand, Tampa Bay might opt to simply shut him down if the timeline becomes too compressed, as the 57-62 Rays are only on the outskirts of the wild card race and aren’t likely to be playing meaningful games in late September.

Alex Bregman To Wait Until Offseason To Discuss Contract

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Back in late June, Alex Bregman’s agent Scott Boras said that his client was “always open to any conversation” about a longer-term agreement with the Red Sox.  This created the impression that an in-season extension between the two sides was perhaps possible, though Bregman seemingly put an end to that idea when speaking with the Boston Globe’s Tim Healey today.  While Bregman is “obviously…open to talking” at season’s end, the third baseman stressed that “for the next few months, I’m just really focused on the baseball.  I’m just focused on trying to do what I can to help this team win and get into the playoffs.  I feel like that’s where my head and mind need to be.”

Most players adopt this same stance with extension negotiations, preferring to have any deals finalized either prior to Opening Day or just after (if talks were almost but not quite completed by the first game).  That said, there have also been plenty of in-season extensions over the years, as naturally each player has a different set of circumstances that can impact a long-term deal.  For instance, the Red Sox completed a major extension just a few days ago with Roman Anthony, as the rookie sensation locked in the first fortune of his pro career by signing an eight-year contract that will pay him at least $130MM.

It is more rare to see an established veteran sign a new contract so close to free agency, so it isn’t surprising to see Bregman choose to put negotiations aside until Boston’s season (and what he hopes is a deep playoff run) is complete.  Bregman signed a three-year, $120MM free agent deal with the Sox last winter that contains opt-out clauses after each of the first two seasons.  That means Bregman can bank his $35MM salary from 2025 and leave the remaining money on the table in order to pursue a richer and longer-term commitment in another trip to the open market this offseason.

Bregman’s first season in Beantown was interrupted by a quad strain that kept him out of action for just shy of seven weeks.  That significant absence notwithstanding, there is little doubt Bregman will indeed trigger his opt-out clause, as he is hitting .298/.380/.531 with 14 homers over 313 plate appearances in a Red Sox uniform.  This translates to a 148 wRC+ that would be Bregman’s highest since his 167 wRC+ during the 2019 season with the Astros — Bregman finished second in AL MVP voting during this high point of his outstanding career.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow raved about Bregman during a radio interview in June, describing the third baseman as “everything we could have asked for both on the field but also in the clubhouse from a leadership standpoint. Not just in the way he’s helped younger players and our staff but in the ways that he’s helped me and many of us in the front office.”  This praise of Bregman has been echoed by teammates and manager Alex Cora, leaving no doubt of Bregman’s quick impact on a young Red Sox team that is in the thick of the postseason race.

It would certainly seem that the Sox are willing to offer Bregman a lucrative deal that tacks a few more years onto his current contract (or overwrites it entirely) in order to get him to forego his opt-out decision.  Bregman and Boras went into the 2024-25 offseason reportedly looking to land a $200MM guarantee, so speculatively speaking, perhaps a five-year, $165MM extension might be enough to get things done.

Such a deal would commit Bregman to the Red Sox through his age-36 season, give him the overall $200MM payday he was seeking in the first place, and perhaps get more money into his bank account a little sooner, depending on how this hypothetical contract is structured.  Bregman’s current deal contains $60MM in deferred money, so Bregman is only receiving $20MM of his $35MM salary for 2025.  Then again, Bregman could be open to deferrals since such an arrangement lowers the luxury tax hit of his contract, thus giving the Red Sox more flexibility in spending more on acquisitions or in locking up other players to extensions.

There are some parallels to Matt Chapman’s situation here, even though Bregman apparently won’t be following his fellow Boras Corporation client in signing an extension before the season is over.  Chapman signed a three-year, $54MM deal with the Giants during the 2023-24 offseason that also contained two opt-out clauses, and then worked out a new six-year, $151MM extension last September.

It was surprising to see Chapman and Boras work out such a deal before even testing the market, especially when Chapman was so close to free agency, yet Chapman’s desire to stay in the Bay Area helped pave the way to a new agreement.  As much as Boras has the reputation of “pushing” his clients towards the open market, the agent has negotiated plenty of high-profile extensions during his long career, so it shouldn’t at all be taken as a given that Bregman could be playing elsewhere in 2026.  Indeed, given how much mutual interest there seems to be between Bregman and the Red Sox, it may be more likely than not that Bregman could indeed find himself as a Fenway Park cornerstone.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Mark P

  • After just one Weekend Chat session in all of July, consider this a bonus entry as a follow-up to yesterday’s chat.

Jason

  • Are the brewers for real???

Mark P

  • They’ve been “for real” for the better part of the decade.  Whether this is the Brewers team that breaks through to make some serious noise in October remains to be seen, but is is remarkable how this team keeps reinventing itself and remaining competitive.

Guest

  • While many teams went shopping for a dress to the party at the high end stores, the Royals found some gems at thrift store pricing.

Mark P

  • I also liked a lot of KC’s moves. It might be too little too late, but they addressed some needs in a pretty low-cost manner.

John

  • Is resigning Cedric Mullins a real possibility for the Orioles?

Mark P

  • If I’m the Orioles at this point, I go with the youth movement.  No more timeshares, no more splitting at-bats with veterans….let the kids play and see what they can do with everyday at-bats.
  • If you are adding a veteran, aim higher than Mullins for a real difference-maker in the regular lineup

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