By Tim Dierkes | at
Our Top 50 free agents list is a massive undertaking every year. This year, Steve Adams led the effort, with assistance and tons of deliberation from Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald, and me. Would you like? This morning, Steve, Anthony, and I held a live chat to give readers a chance to yell at us about our contract and/or team predictions! Click here to read the transcript!
Also, you can enter our free agent prediction contest up until Wednesday at 11pm central time.
By Steve Adams | at
Free agency is officially underway, and with the Mets staring down multiple holes in the rotation, bullpen and lineup, they’ll be among the sport’s more active teams again this winter. A pair of early targets for the team include left-hander Andrew Heaney, per Newsday’s Tim Healey, and old friend Michael Conforto, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.
The interest in Heaney is sensible on many levels. First and foremost, the Mets currently face the possibility of losing Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker to free agency. Heaney certainly isn’t going to offset a potential deGrom loss, but the Mets figure to cast a wide net in sifting through starting pitching options, as it’s unlikely that they’ll come to a middle ground and re-sign all three of their rotation free agents. Secondly, GM Billy Eppler knows Heaney quite well, having spent the 2015-20 seasons as the Angels’ general manager; Heaney, while originally acquired when Jerry Dipoto was the Halos’ GM, was with the Angels for all six of those seasons.
Beyond the sheer need in the rotation and the familiarity with the pitcher and person in Heaney, his 2022 breakout with the Dodgers was nothing short of remarkable. A pair of shoulder troubles limited him to 72 2/3 innings, and that’s a concern for any pitcher but especially one with Heaney’s lengthy injury history. However, when he was able to take the mound, the 31-year-old southpaw worked to a tidy 3.10 ERA with the second-best strikeout rate (35.5%) and best swinging-strike rate (16.8%) of the 188 pitchers who tossed at least 70 frames in 2022.
Heaney’s emergence came on the heels of the Dodgers scrapping nearly his entire arsenal. Heaney continued throwing a four-seamer he debuted in 2021 — he’d previously used a sinker as his primary heater — but dumped his changeup and curveball in favor of a new slider that proved to be an absolute knockout offering. Heaney was almost all four-seamers and sliders in 2022, with the lone exception being a 5% usage rate on the aforementioned changeup (which he once threw at a 23% clip).
As for Conforto, a reunion makes some sense — though only if the Mets lose Brandon Nimmo to another club (or feel that his early asking price is simply beyond the pale). The longtime Mets slugger had a down season (by his standards) in 2021, though he still checked in as a slightly above-average offensive contributor. Unfazed by the dip in production, Conforto rejected a qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal but found a frosty market before suffering a shoulder injury that required surgery and ultimately kept him out of action for the entire 2022 season.
Ostensibly, that would set the table for a one-year, make-good deal wherever he signs, but agent Scott Boras has already suggested that Conforto is likely to target a two-year deal with an opt-out — similar to the structure that Carlos Rodon had with the Giants in 2022 (presumably at a decidedly lower total than Rodon’s $44MM). Whether such an offer materializes can’t be known so early in a months-long free agent period.
Signing Conforto would likely mean sliding Starling Marte over to center and bidding farewell to Nimmo, or perhaps committing to Conforto in more of a DH role. The latter scenario might not appeal to a 29-year-old who’s looking to reestablish himself as a credible all-around player, however, and it seems unlikely the Mets would jump the market to sign any outfielder who’d push Marte to center before having a full grasp on Nimmo’s situation.
Payroll shouldn’t be much of an issue for a Mets club that topped $280MM in 2022 and approached $300MM in luxury-tax obligations. Still, it’s worth noting that entering the market, the team projects to a payroll of about $238MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, with a bit less than $249MM on the luxury ledger. Finding a taker for Dominic Smith or Darin Ruf (or simply non-tendering the former) could slightly drop those figures, but the Mets are already deep into luxury territory and figure to have little qualms about surpassing the newly implemented fourth tier of penalization for a second straight year.
By Nick Deeds | at
As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. Implications Of Diaz, Suarez Deals
The relief market has moved quickly in the early going of this offseason, with perhaps the top two options, Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez, already off the market. Both relievers re-signed with the Mets and Padres, respectively, but the more notable piece of these signings is the contracts they both managed to secure. In signing a five-year, $102MM contract, Diaz became the first reliever to receive a $100MM guarantee or an AAV of $20MM, though given his superlative platform season (1.31 ERA/0.90 FIP), there was never any doubt that he would get paid handsomely. Suarez, while a top relief arm in this offseason’s class in his own right, pales in comparison to Diaz, with a 2.27 ERA and 3.32 FIP in 47 2/3 innings in 2022, his first major league season after playing the first six years of his career in Japan. Despite his lack of major-league experience and the fact that he’ll play 2023 at the age of 32, Suarez still managed to receive a five year, $46MM deal. While the AAV is about in line with what most would have expected, San Diego’s decision to sign Suarez to a deal that guarantees him money through his age-36 season certainly registers as a surprise, particularly given that there’s also an opt-out in the deal. With perhaps the two best relievers off the market, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the relief market plays out from here. Kenley Jansen, Rafael Montero, and Taylor Rogers represent some of the top options still available, and while they were projected for just two or three year deals in MLBTR’s Top 50 list yesterday, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Suarez deal indicates the relief market may be stronger than had previously been expected.
2. Kershaw, Dodgers Close To Deal
Reports last night indicated that the Dodgers were close to re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw to another one-year contract similar to the one he received last offseason, and it’s possible said contract could be agreed upon as soon as today. This deal comes as no surprise, as Kershaw had previously mentioned that he was likely to continue playing in 2023, and despite rumors last year that he may sign with his hometown Texas Rangers, the more widely held expectation has been that if Kershaw is playing anywhere next season, it will be in Los Angeles. Should the Kershaw deal become official, the Dodgers will have additional security in their rotation headed into the meat of the offseason. Tyler Anderson (to whom the Dodgers extended a qualifying offer yesterday) and Andrew Heaney joined Kershaw in free agency after the 2022 season, leaving the club in need of more arms. Still, it’s reasonable to expect L.A. to continue searching for rotation help even with Kershaw returning for next year, particularly given his increasingly frequent trips to the injured list in recent years.
3. Masataka Yoshida Garnering Interest
It was reported last week that Nippon Professional Baseball star Masataka Yoshida may be posted by his team, the Japan Series champion Orix Buffaloes, and rumors have only grown since then. In particular, the folks at the New York Post seem confident not only that Yoshida will indeed be posted — Joel Sherman suggests such a move is expected to come next month — but that he will find considerable interest from MLB clubs. Sherman notes that Yoshida “is going to draw a lot of interest”, while Jon Heyman indicates that the Yankees, in particular, may be interested in Yoshida, whether or not they manage to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman notes that Yoshida’s lefty bat could help bring balance to a Yankees lineup that’s heavily right-handed, and stands to become even more so should they not re-sign first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Should Yoshida be posted, he would join the corner outfield market as one of the younger, more intriguing options behind Judge. Speculatively speaking, teams such as the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners are among the many who could have interest in Yoshida.
By Simon Hampton | at
As the off-season gets underway, much of attention around the Red Sox has been focused on the free agency Xander Bogaerts and the ongoing contract talks with third baseman Rafael Devers, but it Boston is showing early interest in adding pitching this winter. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox are “digging around the pitching market”, and have been linked to Andrew Heaney and Seth Lugo among others. Jon Morosi of MLB Network has more on their interest in pitching, stating they’ve shown interest – alongside the Angels – in starter Tyler Anderson.
Boston does have a reasonable amount of pitching signed for next season, but a most of it comes with major question marks. Chris Sale is owed $27.5MM but has made just eleven starts in the past three years. James Paxton opted into his $4MM player option for next season, but he didn’t pitch at all in 2022. Brayan Bello showed promise in eleven starts in 2022 and could have a bright future, but those were the first eleven starts of his major league career and he’s still raw. The Red Sox are intending to use Garrett Whitlock as a starter in 2023, but he’s pitched better out of the bullpen and made just nine starts this season. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the only dependable option in Boston’s rotation at this stage, so it’s no surprise they’re looking to add pitching.
Anderson has enjoyed something of a late breakout with the Dodgers this past season. He generally checked in as a solid, back of the rotation starter across his first six seasons in the majors with the Rockies, Giants, Pirates and Mariners. With the Dodgers however, he tossed 178 2/3 innings of 2.57 ERA ball, easily the best numbers of his career and first since 2016 where his ERA had finished under four. A lot of that was due to restricting the long ball, as Anderson’s HR/9 more than halved from 2021 (1.46 down to 0.71). Anderson did receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, so there’s every chance he accepts that one-year, $19.65MM deal and returns to LA.
Heaney, on the other hand, was not tendered a qualifying offer but also enjoyed his own breakout campaign. He pitched to a 3.10 ERA through 72 2/3 innings as a result of leaning more on his slider and less on his changeup. Those numbers came with a significant increase in strikeout rate, as he posted a 35.5% rate, well above his previous high of 28.9% in 2019. He did miss around three months across two separate IL stints with left shoulder problems, so there are some durability concerns.
Lugo has enjoyed six solid seasons pitching out of the Mets bullpen. He threw 65 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, maintaining a strong walk rate of 6.6% and a solid strikeout rate of 25.4%. While it’s not lights out stuff for a reliever, Lugo does have plenty of value as a durable middle reliever. While there’s a case to be made for any or all of these three pitchers finding their way to Boston this winter, it’s still early and the Red Sox will be casting a wide net in their pursuit of pitching.
On the other side of the ball, the Red Sox appear to be some way off agreeing to a contract extension with Devers. The star third baseman will be a free agent after the 2023 season, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that while there is some optimism towards a deal, the two sides remain far apart. Heyman reports that the Red Sox offered Devers a contract slightly above the ten-year, $212MM deal that Austin Riley received from the Braves, but Devers is seeking more than $300MM in an extension.
Devers had another brilliant season in 2022, mashing 27 home runs and compiling a .295/.358/.521 line in 141 games. His wRC+ mark of 140 was the best of his career, but his previous marks of 133, 108 and 132 show he’s regularly been a superb hitter. Defensively, he improved on 2021 but still graded out with negative numbers per Outs Above Average (-2) and Defensive Runs Saved (-6). Given he’s already amassed 18.1 fWAR and will be hitting free agency entering his age-27 season, it’s no surprise Devers is seeking big money. The left-hander would be one of the top free agents available on the open market should the Red Sox fail to lock him in before then.
By Simon Hampton | at
Heading into the off-season, the Brewers have a number of quality players and like any smaller market team, their dwindling years of control make them speculative trade candidates. Star pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are both entering their final two seasons of control, but according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Brewers are more likely to add to their roster around those two than look to deal them.
Burnes followed up last year’s NL Cy Young winning campaign with another brilliant season, throwing 202 innings of 2.94 ERA ball. He struck out 243 batters (1st in NL) and while he’s not a finalist for the Cy Young award in 2022, he’ll certainly receive some down-ballot votes. Woodruff finished fifth in Cy Young voting last year, and pitched to a 3.05 ERA across 153 1/3 innings in 2022. Woodruff is due $11MM in arbitration, while Burns slightly tops that with $11.4MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ projections. A trade of either could give the Brewers farm system – which ranked 13th on Baseball America’s mid-season rankings – a massive boost.
After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and finishing seven games back of the Cardinals, it might’ve been an opportune time to retool a little and replenish their farm system, but instead it appears they’ll look to bounce back by adding to their current core in 2023. According to RosterResource, the Brewers payroll currently projects at around $130MM, $7MM shy of their final mark in 2022. While it’s unclear if the Brewers plan to increase payroll, as things stand that doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room to improve and try and catch the Cardinals, though they could opt to non-tender some of their arbitration-eligible players to free up some payroll space.
Here’s some more from around the National League Central:
By Anthony Franco | at
The Royals are interested in adding an experienced right-handed hitter this offseason, general manager J.J. Picollo tells Anne Rogers of MLB.com. The first-year baseball ops leader suggested the team’s defensive flexibility afforded them the ability to scour the market at multiple positions.
“The nice thing is, we have a lot of flexibility with the positional guys. A lot of guys that can play a lot of different positions. It doesn’t pigeonhole us into saying, ‘We need to go get this position,’” Picollo told Rogers. “I think we’re thinking more right-handed bat more so than left-handed. But we want the ability to match up and have the depth on our bench that allows us to make moves late in games.”
Kansas City has Bobby Witt Jr. locked in at shortstop, while Vinnie Pasquantino broke out to seize the first base job. Franchise icon Salvador Perez is locked in behind the plate, and Rogers writes that former top catching prospect MJ Melendez looks as if he’ll be the primary left fielder. Michael A. Taylor is under contract and the in-house favorite for playing time in center field, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Kansas City floats him in trade talks considering how shallow the free agent market at the position is.
The rest of the position player group is a bit up in the air. Second and third base were primarily manned by rookies Michael Massey and Nate Eaton down the stretch. Both played reasonably well in their first exposure to big league pitching, and Picollo suggested Massey in particular looks as if he’ll get the first crack at the second base job. Nicky Lopez is on hand as a potential second base alternative, while Adalberto Mondesi is controllable for his final season of arbitration but coming off a season mostly lost to an ACL tear. Mondesi looks like a viable non-tender candidate with a projected $3MM salary, but Picollo indicated the club could bring him back as a multi-positional option off the bench.
That leaves third base and right field — where none of Drew Waters, Hunter Dozier, Edward Olivares or Kyle Isbel looks like a slam-dunk everyday player — as areas for a possible upgrade. Picollo noted that an experienced, veteran player would be ideal to help out in a younger clubhouse. Speculatively speaking, Evan Longoria and Justin Turner, each of whom were bought out of club options today, could fit the bill as third base/designated hitter options. In the corner outfield, players like Mitch Haniger, Adam Duvall, Andrew McCutchen and former Royal Wil Myers are available. Haniger would be the costliest of that group, while the latter trio are likely all available on one-year deals.
On the matter of payroll, Picollo tells Rogers next year’s player spending is likely to be similar to 2022 levels. Kansas City opened this year with a payroll around $95MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster Recourse projects their 2023 spending at just under $77MM, seemingly leaving some room for Picollo and his staff to augment the roster. Nevertheless, the GM tells Rogers they could consider moving some players off the big league club to free up spending capacity.
“We’re operating right now near capacity with what we want to spend, but that’s where we need to be open-minded in how we can manage and free up some money to change the look of the team a little bit,” Picollo said. “[Owner John Sherman] has told me, ‘Let’s understand where we are as a team right now, and when the time is right for us to add to the payroll, we’ll do that.’ It’s going to ebb and flow a little bit, but with where we’re at as a team right now, adding an extra $20MM isn’t going to put us at the top. There are other things we need to take care of first before we make that push with the payroll.”
Aside from Mondesi and Taylor, that probably leaves starter Brad Keller ($7MM projected salary) and relievers Scott Barlow ($4.9MM projection) and Amir Garrett ($2.6MM projection) as candidates to change uniforms. Keller and Garrett could be non-tender candidates after tough years, but Barlow would be an in-demand entrant to the reliever trade market if Kansas City shopped him. Controllable through 2024, the right-hander is coming off 74 1/3 innings of 2.18 ERA ball with a 26.6% strikeout rate. Barlow has quietly been one of the game’s best relievers two years running, and dealing him could free up K.C. to address a rather thin starting rotation and/or land the righty bat they’re seeking. Picollo didn’t say dealing Barlow was under consideration this offseason, to be clear, but the closer did draw trade interest at this past summer’s deadline.
By Simon Hampton | at
Former big leaguer Jon Jay has signed on as first base and outfield coach with the Marlins, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. Jay joins his former Cardinals team mate Skip Schumaker in Miami, after the latter was recently appointed manager.
Jay retired in 2021 after a 12-year career in the big leagues. He appeared for seven different teams, but is known mostly for his time with the Cardinals. There, he hit .287/.354/.387 across six seasons and 757 games in the Cardinals outfield, winning the World Series in 2011. After St Louis traded him to San Diego ahead of the 2016 season, Jay would spend a lot of time shifting around the majors, never appearing for the same team across multiple seasons. Between 2015 and his retirement in 2021, Jay appeared for the Padres, Cubs, Royals, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Diamondbacks again, before wrapping up his career with a short stint at the Angels.
It’s not a great surprise that a gig with the Marlins under Schumacher is his first. Jay is a native of Miami, and he and Schumaker spent a number of years together on the Cardinals, including on that World Series winning side of 2011. Jay joins pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. and bullpen coach Wellington Cepeda as those on board for 2023, but Schumaker still has a bit of work to do to fill out his coaching staff.
By Simon Hampton | at
The Rangers announced they’ve outrighted pitcher Jesus Tinoco to Triple-A Round Rock. Following that and a bundle of other moves involving the Rangers, their 40-man roster now sits at 34.
Tinoco, 27, tossed 20 2/3 innings of 2.18 ERA ball in 2022 across two stints in the big leagues with the Rangers. On the surface, those are excellent numbers but Tinoco had an opponent’s BABIP of just .189, and a LOB rate of 89.1%, suggesting there was a fair bit of regression due for the Venezuelan. He also threw 44 innings out of the bullpen at Triple-A, striking out batters 28.5% of the time and walking 9.5% of them on the way to a 3.27 ERA.
Tinoco was originally signed by the Blue Jays back in 2011. He was traded to the Rockies as part of the Troy Tulowitzki deal in 2015, and wound up making his major league debut in 2019 there. That was the start of a period of bouncing around the league a bit, as the Rockies would deal him to the Marlins in August of 2020, only to claim him back just a few weeks later. He was released by the Rockies at the end of the 2021 season, and latched on with the Rangers. All told, Tinoco has pitched to a 4.05 ERA across 66 2/3 innings in the big leagues.
By Anthony Franco | at
The Padres announced they’ve selected right-hander Pedro Avila onto the 40-man roster. The move keeps him from reaching minor league free agency this evening. San Diego also announced that reliever Austin Adams went unclaimed on waivers and elected free agency.
Avila has spent a fair bit of time on the Friars 40-man roster, but he’s barely pitched at the MLB level. He has just four career appearances, although they’ve been spread over three seasons. This year consisted of two MLB relief appearances before the Friars outrighted him to Triple-A El Paso in June. He spent the rest of the year there, starting 24 of 30 outings and working to a 4.58 ERA over 112 innings in a hitter-friendly environment. He punched out an above-average 26.1% of opponents against a slightly elevated 10.3% walk percentage.
The Padres clearly value Avila enough to keep him from departing to kick off the offseason, although it remains to be seen if he’ll hold his roster spot all winter. He still has a minor league option year remaining, so the Pads can shuttle him between San Diego and El Paso as rotation depth if he keeps his 40-man spot.
Adams only made two relief appearances this year before being shut down with a forearm strain. He underwent flexor surgery in August and appears unlikely to be ready for the start of the 2023 campaign. The Padres never looked likely to tender him a projected $1MM arbitration contract as a result. The 31-year-old had a 4.10 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout percentage in 2021 and will be a depth option for teams once he’s healthy.
By Simon Hampton | at
The Pirates have outrighted Peter Solomon, Beau Sulser, Jason Delay, Blake Cederlind, Eric Stout and Zack Collins off their 40-man roster, per a team announcement. Both Stout and Collins have elected free agency. The made the moves after reinstating Canaan Smith-Njigba, Colin Holderman, Yerry De Los Santos, Cederlind and Max Kranick off the 60-day IL.
Solomon, 26, was claimed off waivers from the Astros in September. He never made it to the majors in Pittsburgh, staying at Triple-A for his brief stint with the Bucs. Across both team’s Triple-A affiliates he threw 109 2/3 innings of 5.58 ERA ball, striking out eight batters per nine innings and walking 4.4. He did make it to the majors in 2021 for the Astros, throwing 14 innings of 1.29 ERA ball, although that was held together by an 88.9% LOB rate.
Sulser was a tenth round draft pick in 2017, and made it to the majors for the first time in 2022. He had a 3.72 ERA across 9 2/3 innings in Pittsburgh, before the Orioles claimed him off waivers in May. There, he spent much of the year in the minors but threw 12 2/3 innings of 3.55 ERA ball in the bigs. Altogether, Sulser would strike out 19.1% of major league batters and walk 9.1% in 2022.
The Pirates used no fewer than eight catchers in 2022, and despite Delay spending the first few months of the season at Triple-A, he wound up as their starter by season’s end and his 57 games at catcher were the most on the team. Across those appearances, he hit just .213/.265/.271 with one home run. The bat was never Delay’s strength, and he does grade out well defensively behind the plate.
Cederlind came through the Pirates system as a strong relief pitcher, but injuries have derailed his career in recently. After making his major league debut in 2020 and tossing four innings out of Pittsburgh’s bullpen he underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2021. That is never a quick recovery, but Cederlind had to undergo a second surgery this year to remove loose bodies from his elbow, and as such never pitched in either 2021 or 2022.
Pittsburgh purchased Stout from the Cubs midway through the 2022 campaign, and wound up throwing 18 2/3 innings out of their bullpen. His 5.79 ERA doesn’t show much promise, and Stout will need to find a way to limit the walks, after he gave up 15 free passes this season in Pittsburgh.
The sixth man to be outrighted was Collins, a former top-100 prospect out of the White Sox system. It never worked out for the catcher in Chicago, and the White Sox shipped him to the Blue Jays for Reese McGuire at the start of the season. He struggled there, hitting .194/.266/.417 with four home runs across 79 plate appearances. The Pirates claimed him off waivers in September, but he picked up just a solitary hit across 29 plate appearances.
After these moves, and Pittsburgh’s earlier acquisition of first baseman Ji-Man Choi from the Rays, their 40-man roster is full.
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