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Giants Roster “Pretty Settled”

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The Giants’ rotation took the early spotlight this winter as Kevin Gausman weighed multi-year deals against a short-term return to the Bay. Ultimately, Gausman brought his 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP and 32.2 percent strikeout rate from 2020 back to San Francisco by accepting the club’s qualifying offer.

Slot Gausman at the top of the Giants’ rotation, then, and veteran Johnny Cueto right behind him. With Gausman on a one-year pact and the soon-to-be 35-year-old Cueto also facing free agency (assuming the Giants buy out their 2022 team option), the Giants have long-term flexibility at the top of their rotation. As much as malleability has become a chief asset throughout the game, the top of the rotation is the one place where teams probably prefer some stability. The Giants have some work to do in this regard, but that’s probably not a box they can check this winter.

Elsewhere, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood are “locked into the rotation,” per Maria Guardado of MLB.com. The way in which those starts manifest themselves comes baked-in with more than a dash of uncertainty, especially given the unique incentives in Wood’s contract. His deal leaves open the possibility of taking his turns traditionally – or as an opener or follower. DeSclafani, meanwhile, has only twice made 30+ starts in a season, and he’s coming off a 7.22 ERA/5.52 SIERA in 33 2/3 innings – which included seven starts and two relief appearances. Regarding the stability/flexibility dichotomy, Wood and DeSclafani, like the top half of the rotation, are heading back to free agency after 2021.

Funny enough, Logan Webb, the frontrunner to land the Giants’ fifth starter spot, also probably has the most secure long-term future with the club. The 24-year-old owns a 5.36 ERA/4.64 SIERA over 94 career innings. In the short term, however, he’s most likely to find himself displaced from a regular role should President of Baseball Ops Farhan Zaidi continue to add from the outside. At least for now, that’s a real possibility, writes Guardado.

Interestingly, Zaidi sounded pretty certain that the rest of their roster was set. The Giants added Tommy La Stella to the top of their lineup this winter and Curt Casali to the bench. In the bullpen, Matt Wisler, John Brebbia, and Jake McGee joined the bullpen potentials along with Rule 5 selection Dedniel Nunez.

New York Notes: Justin Wilson, Brett Gardner

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All things being equal, Justin Wilson seems to prefer a return to the Mets, but the Metropolitans have only just begun conversations with the veteran southpaw, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). It’s not difficult to imagine a deal coming together quickly, however. Wilson does appear close to signing somewhere, notes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Coming of a strong 3.66 ERA/3.04 FIP over 19 2/3 innings in 2020, he certainly presents as a useful arm.

In fact, the Yankees are among those clubs said to negotiating with Wilson, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The Yankees are close to the first luxury tax threshold, and the assumption has been that they intend to stay under it. That doesn’t give them a lot of room for Wilson, who is one of the more attractive arms in a southpaw market that includes a fair amount of depth with T.J. McFarland, Oliver Perez, Tony Watson and Sam Freeman among the remaining lefties. The Yankees still probably have about $7MM or so to spend before surpassing mark, however, so another acquisition is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Much because of those financial realities, whether or not they reunite with Brett Gardner, for the first time this winter, seems like a coin flip. The Yankees really don’t need him given where their roster stands today – especially with Jay Bruce brought in on a low-risk minors pact. That said, he’s a fan favorite, their longest-tenured player, and he is said to want to return. That should make this easy, but as Rosenthal notes, Gardner’s production last season could theoretically line him up for quite a bit more than $7MM over one season. Gardner’s 110 wRC+ in 2020 and 114 wRC+ over the last two seasons marks him as a potentially superior option to just about every other outfielder remaining on the market.

That said, he will be 37-year-old this season, and he’s long been viewed as a Yankee loyalist, which could have tempered his market. At this point, the question probably boils down to exactly how much Gardner wants to remain in New York. Otherwise, he’s pretty well out of leverage.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/13/21

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Some minor league moves from around the sport…

Latest Moves

  • The Cardinals have signed outfielder Matt Szczur to a minor league deal that contains an invite to their big league Spring Training camp, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports (via Twitter).  Szczur hit .231/.312/.355 over 667 plate appearances with the Cubs and Padres from 2014-18 but he hasn’t since returned to the majors.  The 31-year-old signed minor league contracts with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2019 season and the Phillies prior to 2020, with Philadelphia releasing Szczur back in June.

Earlier Today

  • The White Sox signed infielder Marco Hernandez to a minor league contract back in January, as originally noted by the transactions page for Triple-A East (formerly the International League).  Hernandez was released by the Red Sox in August, ending a six-year stint in the Boston organization that saw Hernandez hit .265/.300/.342 over 271 plate appearances in parts of three MLB seasons.  He was part of Boston’s 60-man player pool but didn’t see any big league action in 2020.  Hernandez played mostly second base with the Red Sox but he also has experience at third base and shortstop, so he will be competing for a utility infield job in Chicago’s camp.
  • The Angels announced that left-hander Dillon Peters was outrighted Triple-A at clearing waivers.  Peters will be invited to the team’s Spring Training camp after being designated for assignment last week.  The southpaw pitched in just one MLB game in 2020, getting hit for four runs (three earned) over 1 2/3 innings for the Angels.  A groundball specialist while coming up in the Marlins’ farm system, Peters has a 5.83 ERA and only a 16.7K% over 132 2/3 career Major League innings with Miami and Anaheim.
  • Diamondbacks left-hander Taylor Guilbeau has been outrighted to Triple-A, the team announced.  Guilbeau cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week, and he will also be invited to Arizona’s big league Spring Training camp.  Guilbeau posted a 2.70 ERA over 20 MLB innings with the Mariners from 2019-20, with the D’Backs acquiring the grounder specialist on a waiver claim in October.
  • The Twins announced that southpaw Brandon Waddell has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A after being designated for assignment last Thursday.  Waddell has been invited to the Twins’ Major League Spring Training camp.  A fifth-round pick for the Pirates in the 2015 draft, Waddell made his MLB debut in 2020, tossing 3 1/3 innings over two games with Pittsburgh.  Minnesota claimed Waddell off waivers from the Pirates in October.

Rays Win Arbitration Case With Ryan Yarbrough

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The Rays have won their arbitration hearing against left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter).  Tampa Bay will pay Yarbrough $2.3MM in 2021, as opposed to the $3.1MM salary Yarbrough was hoping to land.

This was the first of four arb-eligible years for Yarbrough, who qualified for the extra arbitration year by gaining enough service time to reach Super Two eligibility.  He therefore gets his first big (if not quite as big as he was hoping) guaranteed payday a bit earlier in his career, and he’ll have an opportunity for greater earning potential as his arbitration salaries escalate up until he is eligible for free agency following the 2024 season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a salary in the range of $2.2MM to $3.6MM for Yarbrough, a wider range than usual due to both the unusual nature of the 2020 season and due to the Rays’ unique usage of Yarbrough for much of his pro career.  Tampa often deployed Yarbrough as a bulk pitcher in both 2018 and 2019, with the southpaw entering the game for extended outings in “relief” after an opener tossed the first inning or two.

Yarbrough mostly worked as a regular starter in 2020 (starting nine of 11 games), which may have additionally worked against him since arbiters tend to rely on traditional statistics in hearings.  By that standard, Yarbrough only recorded one win and 44 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings, along with a 3.56 ERA.  This case could also be an important precedent for future arbitration cases involving bulk pitchers, as the Rays and other teams continue to blur the lines between the standard definitions of starters and relievers.

No matter the role, Yarbrough has posted some solid numbers over his three MLB seasons and 344 2/3 career innings.  The 29-year-old has a 3.94 ERA (4.44 SIERA) and a middle-of-the-pack 20.3% strikeout rate, but also a tiny 5.8% walk rate.  Between this strong control and an elite ability to limit hard contact, Yarbrough had found success despite a fastball that averaged only 87.4mph last season.

The Rays end the 2020-21 arbitration season with a .500 record in cases, topping Yarbrough but losing to first baseman Ji-Man Choi.

Mike Soroka Wins Arbitration Case With Braves

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Right-hander Mike Soroka has won his arbitration case with the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  Soroka will receive $2.8MM for the 2021 season, as opposed to the $2.1MM that was offered by Atlanta.

Soroka pitched only 13 2/3 innings in 2020 before suffering a season-ending right Achilles tear, though his overall track record through his short career was enough to sway the arbiter in his favor.  The 28th overall pick of the 2015 draft, Soroka has a 2.86 ERA and 50.9% grounder rate over 214 innings in the majors, despite a fairly middling-to-below average strikeout rate (19.6K%), a solid but unspectacular 6.3 walk rate, and a fastball that has averaged only 92.5mph at the MLB level.

What the 23-year-old does have, however, is a four-pitch arsenal that he frequently mixes up, and “the strategic means to circumvent opponents” in the words of Fangraphs’ Michael Augustine.  Soroka doesn’t allow much hard contact and, especially in the homer-heavy modern game, he does a spectacular job of avoiding the long ball.  Since the start of the 2018 season, Soroka has the second-lowest HR/9 (0.63) of any pitcher in baseball with at least 210 innings pitched.

Soroka also earned enough service time over his first three MLB seasons to count as a Super Two player, and so this winter marks the first of four (rather than the usual three) arbitration-eligible seasons for the Canadian right-hander.  He just turned 23 last August, so he is on pace to hit free agency as a 27-year-old following the 2024 season.  Surely Atlanta had some interest in locking Soroka up to a long-term extension already, so the arbiter’s decision will only increase that desire to get a bit of extra cost certainty since Soroka’s price tag will keep going up over his three remaining arb years.  MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Soroka for a salary of roughly $1.8-$1.9MM in 2021.

The Braves still have another arbitration hearing to go, as they are awaiting a decision on their case with Dansby Swanson.  Atlanta was looking to pay the shortstop $6MM in his second of three arbitration years, while Swanson countered with a $6.7MM figure.

Jack Flaherty Wins Arbitration Case Against Cardinals

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Right-hander Jack Flaherty has won his arbitration hearing with the Cardinals, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  Flaherty will receive the $3.9MM salary he was seeking in 2021, as opposed to the $3MM offered by St. Louis.

It’s a very nice result for Flaherty in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and it lines him up for significantly higher escalating salaries over his next two arb years.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Flaherty for a salary in the range of $2.2MM to $3MM, and while the Cardinals were even on the higher end of that projection, the arbiter ruled in Flaherty’s favor.

Flaherty was excellent in his first two full big league seasons, finishing fifth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018 and then fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2019.  By that standard, 2020 was a down year since Flaherty posted a 4.91 ERA and 9.4BB%, but many of his underlying metrics were still strong — a 28.8 K%, a 3.89 SIERA, and an above-average job at limiting hard contact.  Of course, 2020 was such an odd season that it’s hard to make any real conclusions about Flaherty’s performance, particularly given how the Cardinals had even more of a difficult time than most teams given their widespread COVID-19 outbreak and the heavy schedule full of make-up games down the stretch.

As noted by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, this marks the Cardinals’ first defeat in an arbitration hearing since back in 1994 (against former All-Star Gregg Jefferies).  “The current front office and ownership group had never lost an arbitration, and they once went more than 15 years without one,” Goold wrote.

Red Sox Sign Chris Herrmann To Minors Deal

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The Red Sox have signed catcher/outfielder Chris Herrmann to a minor league deal earlier this week, according to Isaac of @iTalkStudiosYT (Twitter link).  MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo adds that the contract includes an invitation for Herrmann to attend Boston’s big league Spring Training camp.

Herrmann signed minor league deals with both the Rays and Giants in 2020 but didn’t see any MLB action with either team, ending his string of eight consecutive seasons in the Show.  Herrmann’s ability to both catch and play corner outfield positions (plus a few games at first base) has gotten him looks from several teams, and he has also had a couple of very productive years at the plate — most notably a .284/.352/.493 slash line over 166 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks in 2016.

Overall, however, Herrmann has hit only .205/.282/.344 with 25 home runs over 992 career PA with the Twins, D’Backs, Mariners, and Athletics.  His last MLB stint was with Oakland in 2019, appearing in 30 games and hitting .202/.280/.274 in 94 PA.  Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki look set as Boston’s regular catching duo, so the 33-year-old Herrmann will be in camp to provide veteran depth and give Plawecki some competition as Vazquez’s backup.

Orioles To Sign Matt Harvey To Minors Deal

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12:07PM: Harvey will earn $1MM if he makes the Orioles’ active roster, Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun writes.

10:32AM: The Orioles have agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Matt Harvey, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

Baltimore was known to be looking for veteran pitching depth, and the O’s already brought in another prominent name in Felix Hernandez earlier this month on another minors contract.  King Felix will now be joined by the Dark Knight in competition for a spot in the Orioles’ rotation.

Whether Harvey sticks as a starting pitcher or perhaps is shifted to the bullpen is a question to be determined.  Since undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2016, Harvey has an ungainly 6.09 ERA over 319 Major League innings with the Mets, Reds, Angels, and Royals.  After inking a minor league deal with Kansas City last year, Harvey posted an 11.57 ERA over 11 2/3 innings for the Royals, allowing six home runs in that brief stint.

Three of Harvey’s seven appearances with K.C. came as a reliever, which marked his first bullpen work since the Mets removed him from the rotation after struggling early in the 2018 season.  If he can’t crack Baltimore’s pitching staff, it seems likely that Harvey would embrace a full-on conversion to relief pitching as a way of potentially sticking on a big league roster and getting his career back on track.

The seventh overall pick of the 2010 draft, Harvey immediately burst onto the scene with excellent numbers in 2012-13, and finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2013 (his new teammate Hernandez, incidentally, finished eighth in the AL Cy Young race that same season).  After missing the 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery, Harvey rebounded with another strong year to help lead the Mets to the NL pennant in 2015.  Unfortunately, mounting injuries and off-the-field issues clouded Harvey’s remaining years in the Big Apple before he was dealt to the Reds in May 2018.

Yankees To Sign Jay Bruce To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran outfielder Jay Bruce, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  Bruce will earn a $1.35MM guarantee for reaching the big league roster, plus additional $50K bonuses that will unlock if he receives at least 400 plate appearances.

A three-time All-Star from his days with the Reds, Bruce was something of a power-first hitter even in his prime, but has become even more of a homer-centric bat in recent years.  Bruce hit 36 home runs with the Mets in 2017 and 26 home runs in a 2019 season split between the Mariners and Phillies, but he has an overall slash line of .233/.301/.474 over 1414 PA since the start of the 2017 season.  In 2020, Bruce hit .198/.252/.469 with six homers in 103 PA for Philadelphia while battling quad injuries for much of the season.

At the cost of just a Spring Training invite and potentially a modest $1.3MM salary, there isn’t much risk for the Yankees in seeing if Bruce can still contribute as he approaches his 34th birthday.  The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium is certainly inviting for a left-handed power bat, and Bruce’s chances of making the team are helped by the lack of left-handed hitters on the roster.  Bruce can also offer some positional versatility off the bench, capable of playing first base or either corner outfield spot.

As Rosenthal noted in a follow-up tweet, adding Bruce “does not preclude [the] Yankees from re-signing Brett Gardner.”  Recent reports indicated that the Yankees hadn’t had any talks with their longtime outfielder this winter, despite the general assumption that Gardner would eventually re-sign for his 14th season in the pinstripes.  While Bruce lacks Gardner’s center field capability, New York now has a left-handed hitting outfielder in camp as depth in case a deal can’t be reached with Gardner.  If Bruce impresses during Spring Training, the Yankees could ultimately decide that spending $1.3MM for Bruce is preferable to spending even a modest amount more in guaranteed money to bring Gardner back into the fold.

Latest On Justin Turner

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Justin Turner’s market had already reportedly narrowed to four teams, and the field could now be even thinner for the former All-Star.  The Dodgers and Brewers have each made multi-year contract offers to Turner, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), and while the third baseman could potentially have other longer-term offers on the table, Turner seems “less likely” to sign with other rumored suitors like the Braves, Mets, or Blue Jays.

If Turner’s final four is now down to a final two, the Dodgers are still in the lead, according to both Heyman and FanSided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter).  There has been a widespread expectation for much of the winter that Turner would eventually re-sign with Los Angeles, though some wrinkles were added by Turner’s initial ask of a four-year contract, and the Dodgers already projected to spend far beyond the $215MM luxury tax threshold.  As per Roster Resource, the Dodgers’ tax number for 2021 is over $240MM (thanks in large part to the Trevor Bauer signing), and spending beyond $250MM would trigger the maximum tax penalty — a 42.5% surtax on overages, and the Dodgers’ first 2021 draft pick would be dropped back in the draft order by 10 spots.

Of course, the Dodgers could have no issue taking the extra one-year tax hit in order to bolster their chances at another World Series title, or to retain a star player who has spent the last seven seasons in Dodger blue.  Still, the lack of common ground to date between Turner and the Dodgers has opened the door for a team like Milwaukee, as Murray writes that the Brewers made a “competitive” offer.  It seems unlikely that any team would be willing to give four guaranteed years to the 36-year-old Turner, but speculatively, the Brewers might gain an edge over L.A. by offering three years depending on the nature of the Dodgers’ offer.

As for the other teams linked to Turner, earlier reports suggested that the Mets weren’t getting far in contract talks.  The chances of Turner going to Atlanta or Toronto seemed to dim after those teams made other high-priced signings — the Braves and Marcell Ozuna, and the Blue Jays with George Springer and Marcus Semien.

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