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Kyuji Fujikawa Retires

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Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa officially retired earlier this week, after pitching in his final game for the Hanshin Tigers on Tuesday.  The 40-year-old Fujikawa tossed a 1-2-3 inning to close the book on an outstanding pro career that included three Major League seasons.

North American fans best remember Fujikawa from his three seasons with the Cubs and Rangers from 2013-15, though that stint was hardly indicative of Fujikawa at his finest.  Signing with Chicago on a two-year, $9.5MM contract in December 2012, Fujikawa appeared in only 12 games before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing much of the 2013 and 2014 seasons.  Overall, Fujikawa managed only a 5.74 ERA over 26 2/3 innings in Major League Baseball.

In Japan, however, Fujikawa rose to legendary status over 17 seasons in the Hanshin Tigers bullpen.  Fujikawa posted a 2.08 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 3.60 K/BB rate, and 243 saves over 935 1/3 career innings with the Tigers, acting as both a top setup man and closer.  Fujikawa was a big contributor in the last two Tigers teams to reach the Japan Series (in 2003 and 2005, though the Curse Of The Colonel remained intact).

We at MLBTR wish Fujikawa all the best in retirement, and congratulate him on a fine career.

Transaction Retrospection: The Mike Yastrzemski Trade

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During his first offseason leading the Giants, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi aggressively remade the back half of the 40-man roster. Among that spate of transactions was the unheralded acquisition of outfielder Mike Yastrzemski in a spring training swap with the Orioles.

In March 2019, San Francisco picked up Yastrzemski in exchange for right-hander Tyler Herb. Then 28 years old, Yastrzemski was a former 14th-round pick who had yet to play a major league game. To the extent that there was any fanfare surrounding his acquisition, it had much more to do with his relation to Carl Yastrzemski than to his play.

The deal now looks like a masterstroke. Over his first 636 MLB plate appearances, Yastrzemski has put up a fantastic .281/.357/.535 slash (135 wRC+) and hit 31 home runs. He has been worth about five wins above replacement over the equivalent of one full season. The left-handed hitter earned an eighth-place finish in NL MVP voting this past season thanks to a .297/.400/.568 line.

Herb, on the other hand, didn’t reach the majors during his two years in the Baltimore organization. The 28-year-old elected minor-league free agency earlier this month, per Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America.

Even if Yastrzemski takes a bit of a step back from his star-level production, he at least looks like an above-average regular. His late-career breakout is another reminder that even the lowest-profile transactions have some chance of being impactful.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rodriguez

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Some notes from the American League East:

  • Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has spoken previously about making a high-impact addition to the roster. He reiterated that desire when speaking with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). Toronto indeed plans to make a run at elite talent this offseason, Atkins stated. That’s easier said than done, of course. Atkins also spoke of a desire to improve the team’s overall run prevention numbers. Trevor Bauer is handily the top free agent pitcher on the market, but the Jays could also look for a high-end defender to keep runs off the board.
  • Atkins also addressed the Blue Jays’ 2021 stadium situation during his MLB Network Radio interview (Twitter link). The current hope is the team returns to the Rogers Centre after playing their 2020 home games at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field. Atkins also left open the possibility of starting the 2021 season outside Toronto and returning to their home city at a later date. No one knows what the COVID-19 rate will look like next April, of course, so the organization is preparing “contingency plans” in case international travel continues to be restricted next year.
  • Last offseason, Eduardo Rodríguez expressed some openness to working out an extension with the Red Sox. There’s no indication the sides ever seriously discussed a potential long-term agreement, but Rodríguez is now just one season away from free agency. The Sox should approach the southpaw about an extension this offseason, opines Rob Bradford of WEEI. Rodríguez missed the entire 2020 season due to a scary bout with myocarditis after contracting COVID-19; fortunately, he’s expected to return at full strength in 2021.

Analyzing The Tigers’ Matthew Boyd Decision

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In the coming weeks, the Tigers will have to decide on a course of action regarding starter Matthew Boyd.  That was the case last winter as well, but Boyd’s disastrous 2020 season puts the Detroit organization in a much less favorable position this time around.

Boyd was one of the most commonly-referenced trade candidates around the 2019 deadline and during the subsequent offseason. The rebuilding Tigers held firm on a lofty asking price for the controllable strikeout specialist and ultimately kept him in the fold. Unfortunately, Boyd struggled through an abysmal twelve starts in 2020, no doubt dealing a heavy blow to his trade value.

The southpaw pitched to a 6.71 ERA across 60.1 innings this past season. A fly-ball pitcher, Boyd has always been vulnerable to home runs, but the long balls spiked to an untenable level in 2020. Even more concerning, the swing-and-miss stuff that had made Boyd so appealing fell off substantially. His strikeout rate dropped from an elite level (30.2%) in 2019 to slightly below-average (22.1%) last year. Boyd still generated whiffs at a solid clip on a pitch-by-pitch basis, but his 238-strikeout 2019 season now looks more like an outlier than an indicator of an upward trend in performance.

With teams having to decide whether to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players by December 2, the Tigers have to determine if Boyd can get back on track. Arbitration salaries are tougher than ever to project this offseason, but MLBTR’s Matt Swartz pegs Boyd for something in the $5.5MM – $7.8MM range. That’d be great value for a high-strikeout, mid-rotation workhorse. But it’s not an insignificant amount of money for a player with a career 5.08 ERA/4.75 FIP. If Detroit feels Boyd’s 2019 season was something of an aberration, the organization could look to move on.

That could still take the form of a trade. Surely, the Tigers wouldn’t recoup anything close to what they would’ve received six months ago. It’s easy to envision other teams having interest in buying low, though. Boyd’s still only 29 years old (30 in February). He comes with another season of arbitration-eligibility beyond 2021, so there’s some long-term contractual upside if he figures things out. Notably, Boyd’s velocity and spin rates weren’t marginally different in 2020 than they were in 2019, so it’d be easy to hope for a rebound.

Robbie Ray, another high-strikeout southpaw who endured a similarly miserable 2020 season, could be an instructive case. Ray signed a one-year, $8MM deal with the Blue Jays shortly after entering free agency. Which one of Boyd or Ray one would rather have on their team is debatable, but that $8MM mark might be an approximate figure for Boyd’s current market value. That’s right around the high-end range of Boyd’s arbitration projection, making this an interesting dilemma for the Tigers.

Caleb Cotham “Clear Frontrunner” To Be Next Phillies Pitching Coach

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NOVEMBER 15: The Phillies are indeed hoping to finalize a deal with Cotham in the next week, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

NOVEMBER 14: Reds’ assistant pitching coach and director of pitching Caleb Cotham is the leading candidate to take over as the next pitching coach of the Philadelphia Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury names Cotham as the “clear frontrunner.”

Cotham, 33, pitched for two seasons at the major-league level, making his debut for manager Joe Girardi and the New York Yankees in 2015. Girardi likely has significant sway in this hiring decision as the manager of the Phillies, especially since they continue to search for a new head of baseball ops. The Phillies, however, aren’t the only team that Cotham has spoken with this offseason.

Speculatively speaking, Cotham’s experience with Driveline Baseball could be a selling point for data-interested hurlers, as well as the organization on the whole. One such hurler happens to be the top starting pitcher on the free agent market. It’s easy to connect the dots between a potential Cotham hire and NL Cy Young Trevor Bauer – just as we do between Cotham and Girardi – but that’s two steps down the line. If a connection is all it takes to sign Bauer, after all, the Reds would still be in pole position. The Phillies have, however, shown a willingness to spend for starting pitching on the open market in recent years with the additions of Jake Arrieta and Zack Wheeler. Still, if Cotham does indeed turn out to be their hire, it will be on his own merit.

Poll: Which Qualifying Offer Free Agent Will Sign First?

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The deadline for accepting the qualifying offer has come and gone, with two players (the Mets’ Marcus Stroman and the Giants’ Kevin Gausman) opting to accept the one-year, $18.9MM deal from their most recent team.  That leaves four other players in this year’s QO class, all of whom rejected the one-year offer — Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and DJ LeMahieu.

There was some debate over whether or not Stroman or Gausman would even receive a qualifying offer, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that the two hurlers each chose to accept rather than test the open market.  For the other four, however, there was no doubt that each would receive and reject the QO since more lucrative, longer-term offers surely await in free agency.  Bauer, Realmuto, Springer, and LeMahieu take up four of the top five places on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only Marcell Ozuna — who was ineligible for another qualifying offer after being issued one last winter — interceding in the #4 spot.

Now that the QO detail has been settled, the question is which of the quartet will be the first to land that lucrative, long-term contract?  (And, it should be noted that “long-term” may not necessarily be the case in regards to Bauer.)  All of the financial uncertainty of the 2020-21 offseason might not necessarily impact these top-tier free agents in terms of overall earning potential, though the ripple effects of other signings elsewhere in the market could impact when exactly these big four stars sign their next contract.

For instance, there is some thought around baseball that this will be another slow winter for offseason activity, as the strained payrolls throughout the sport will make teams even more wary about making big free agent investments.  A large group of new free agents is expected to flood the market by the December 2 non-tender deadline, so teams might wait until that date to make any sort of significant move so they can assess all of their options.  A team in need of catching, for example, could hold off on making an offer to Realmuto until they know whether or not the Yankees could actually non-tender Gary Sanchez.

But this poll isn’t asking who the last to sign will be, it’s who will be the first.  As mentioned, Bauer/Realmuto/Springer/LeMahieu could be shielded in many respects from the crunch that other free agents are likely to face, and could get a lot of early attention from teams looking to make their offseason as simple as possible.  In the case of the Yankees and LeMahieu, a relatively quick re-signing would allow New York to check off one big box, and then figure out how to address other needs with what resources remain (if the Yankees are indeed trying to get under the $210MM luxury tax threshold).

With so much up in the air about the 2021 season, there’s a case to be made that any of these free agents would prefer to get a new contract locked up soon, so they can fully focus on getting ready for whatever challenges 2021 may bring.  If we reach March and there’s still question as to whether or not the pandemic will allow Opening Day to proceed as scheduled, or if the 2021 season will still be 162 games or not, no player would want the added uncertainty of still not knowing where they’ll be playing whenever Opening Day does occur.

Cast your vote, which of the Qualifying Offer Four will be the first to land their new contract? (Poll link for app users)

NL Notes: Nationals, Wood, Hoffman, Padres, Cubs

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Alex Wood was a target for the Nationals at the 2019 trade deadline, as Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports that the Nats “nearly acquired” the southpaw, who was then a member of the Reds.  The timing is interesting, as back injuries prevented Wood from making his 2019 debut until July 28, just three days prior to the deadline.  While Wood ended up making seven starts for Cincinnati that season, it’s fair to assume that the Nationals may been considering him as a reliever (or a swingman) given the dire state of Washington’s bullpen at the time.

Needless to say, the Nats don’t regret how things turned out for them at the 2019 deadline, as July 31 acquisition Daniel Hudson played a critical role in Washington capturing the World Series.  But with Wood now a free agent and the Nationals looking for some veteran pitching depth, GM Mike Rizzo could very well revisit the idea of adding the left-hander to the D.C. roster.  Wood was again hampered by injuries in 2020, tossing only 12 2/3 innings for the Dodgers during the regular season and posting a 6.39 ERA.  However, his campaign ended on the high note of a World Series ring and a 1.35 ERA (one run in 6 2/3 relief innings) in four postseason outings.

More from around the senior circuit…

  • The Padres announced that longtime third base coach Glenn Hoffman is retiring from coaching for a new position as a senior advisor in San Diego’s baseball operations department.  Hoffman has been a mainstay in the Padres’ third base box for the last 15 seasons, coming on the heels of seven seasons as the Dodgers’ third base coach (and a stint as the Dodgers’ interim manager in 1998, as Hoffman led the team to a 47-41 record).  As per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, bench coach Bobby Dickerson seems to be the favorite to take over third base coaching duties.
  • The Cubs will be looking for more pitching depth this winter, though Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that four rotation spots may be settled, to some extent.  Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks are obviously entrenched atop the starting five, and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sounds comfortable on Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay taking up the next pair of rotation spots.  There have been questions about Alzolay’s ability to stick in the rotation, but the Cubs were apparently impressed enough with the improvement of his slider to regard him as a starter.  Youngsters Tyson Miller, Brailyn Marquez, and Justin Steele will get a shot at the fifth starter’s role, but Chicago is also looking outside the organization at the middle-to-bottom tier of free agent pitchers, depending on what the Cubs decide to do with the rest of their roster.  Epstein has left open the possibility of bringing Jon Lester back on a short-term deal, but the Cubs are comfortable letting him test the market.

Giants’ Prospect Alexander Canario Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Giants prospect Alexander Canario dislocated his shoulder in the final week of the instructional league and underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado (via Twitter). The surgery was performed on his left shoulder by Dr. Ken Akizuki, notes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). The timetable for his return is unspecified at this time.

Canario was fifth on Baseball America’s midseason assessment of the Giants’ prospects. Josh Norris of BA wrote:

One of the team’s many talented Latin American prospects, Canario made a big impression in 2019 by getting to short-season Salem-Keizer and producing a 1.000 OPS as a teenager. He was added to the Giants’ player pool as a teenager this season and has the offensive tools to profile in a corner outfield spot.”

Though Canario had the opportunity to train at their alternate site as part of the 60-man player pool, he’s likely a few years from the majors, especially after this injury. The right-handed outfielder spent 2019 split between the Arizona League and Low-A Salem-Keizer, where he was close to two years younger than the average player. His total line comprised of 265 plate appearances over 59 games. He slashed an impressive .318/.377/.623 with 16 home runs.

Canario is part of an excited young group of San Francisco prospects, with Joey Bart, Marco Luciano, Hunter Bishop, Patrick Bailey, Luis Matos, and Heliot Ramos, among others. With Bart reaching the Majors this season and Ramos a year or two ahead of Luciano and Canario, the Giants plan to be competing by the time Canario arrives in the bigs. At the very least, Canario has the chance to be part of a finishing wave of prospects that the Giants hope can turn them back into first-class contenders.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Catchers, Rays, McKay, Red Sox, Cora

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The Blue Jays are prepared to make impact moves this offseason, but they’re also preaching patience, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. If they do make a move early – beyond what they’ve done so far – GM Ross Atkins thinks it will be a significant one. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, Atkins said, “If we were to move earlier, the impact would be significant. And that doesn’t take us out of significant impact later.” If you’re sensing a theme, you’re not imagining it: The Jays are dreaming big this winter. One of the biggest names available is catcher J.T. Realmuto. The former Phillie would fit the mold described above, but Atkins also says they are “extremely satisfied” with Toronto’s catching situation. And why shouldn’t they be? With Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire and Alejandro Kirk all contributing at the big-league level, they have affordable depth and upside in the form of Kirk, who hit .375/.400/.583 in a 24-at-bat cup-of-coffee in 2020. Still, that depth can be repurposed to make room for a star like Realmuto, especially in the American League where the DH provides opportunity for diversified playing time.

  • Southpaw Brendan McKay remains in Baseball America’s list of top-10 Rays prospects, but J.J. Cooper sounds concerned about McKay’s ability to recover from shoulder surgery on Kyle Glaser’s Baseball America podcast. Cooper notes that Hyun Jin Ryu took about three years to really return to form after a similar surgery. All that said, it’s telling that McKay remains at number six on the list. Until he begins his return and something new emerges, the only confirmed change for McKay is his timeline and his risk profile. The upside that made McKay a top prospect in the first place remains.
  • Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom was given full discretion to make the final hiring decision for the Red Sox managerial opening this offseason. Bringing back Alex Cora wasn’t money in the bank, as it might seem, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The assumption would be that Bloom had the final say-so, but given the unique nature of Cora’s return, and the fact that Bloom didn’t hire Cora the first time around, it would be fair to wonder how much ownership weighed in on the decision. The idea to interview Cora at all, however, was Bloom’s, per Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe. Bloom and general manager Brian O’Halloran met with Cora in an “empty hangar on the airport tarmac.” It was an exhausting but thorough interview by the accounts of those involved, and it didn’t seal the deal. That interview simply entered Cora into the field. Bloom and O’Halloran kept ownership and their assistant general managers involved in the process throughout, but ultimately the decision was left to Bloom, who went with Cora over the Phillies’ integrative baseball performance director Sam Fuld.  Definitely read Speier’s piece for the full account.

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