Prospect Faceoff: Robert v. Adell
There isn’t much doubt that the White Sox’s Luis Robert and the Angels’ Jo Adell are the two best outfield prospects in baseball. The prospect gurus at Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs all rank the two that way, and they also place them among the top farmhands in baseball no matter the position. Robert (No. 2 overall at BA, No. 3 at MLB.com and No. 7 at FanGraphs) holds a small edge over Adell (No. 3 at BA, No. 6 at MLB.com and No. 4 at FanGraphs) at two of the three outlets, but they’re lumped so close together that the difference is negligible.
The Cuba-born Robert has already landed a pair of lucrative contracts during his time in professional baseball. Now 22 years old, Robert joined the White Sox in 2017 for a $26MM signing bonus. Robert has since destroyed minor league pitching, including during a 2019 campaign in which he earned his first promotion to Triple-A ball. He batted .297/.341/.634 (136 wRC+) with 16 home runs in 223 plate appearances at that level, though his strikeout and walk rates were below average (24.7% K, 4.9% BB). Robert’s production was enough to convince the White Sox to make yet another sizable investment in him. This past January, they inked Robert to a six-year, $50MM guarantee – a record for a player with no major league service time (the move has gone over quite well). The deal paved the way for Robert to begin as the White Sox’s center fielder in 2020, if a season actually happens.
Adell, meanwhile, probably won’t open 2020 on the Angels’ roster, but it might not be long before he forces his way up and takes the reins in right field. He may be able to play all three outfield spots, but the team already has Justin Upton in left and pretty good player named Mike Trout in center. Before Adell gets to Anaheim, the soon-to-be 21-year-old – who became an Angel when they chose him 10th overall in 2017 – will likely have to improve his production in Triple-A. Adell had little to no success there last season, hitting .264/.321/.355 (67 wRC+) with no homers, a 32.6 percent strikeout rate and a 7.6 walk rate over 132 PA, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that he has been extraordinarily productive in the minors. It was only a year ago, for instance, that Adell returned from early season hamstring and ankle injuries to bat .308/.390/.553 (173 wRC+) across 182 PA in Double-A, thereby earning a promotion.
Baseball America regards both Robert and Adell as potential franchise players in the making. Robert obviously has the Triple-A track record on his side, but that doesn’t mean he’ll end up as the more valuable major leaguer. If we’re to believe prospect experts, you really can’t lose between the two of them, but which one would you rather bet on going forward?
(Poll link for app users)
Which prospect would you rather have?
-
Luis Robert 60% (2,941)
-
Jo Adell 40% (1,950)
Total votes: 4,891
Phillies Notes: Harper, Dominguez, Realmuto
There’s plenty of negativity on which to dwell in times such as these, but many of the game’s top players continue to their efforts to help those in need and inspire hope. To that end, Bryce Harper announced Thursday (via Twitter) that he and his family are donating $500,000 in partnership with Direct Relief, Three Square Las Vegas and Philabundance to “those in most immediate need” of aid against the spreading COVID-19 virus.
“Now is the time to come together and adhere to the guidelines of medical professionals!” wrote Harper. “We are wishing the best to all with our prayers during this time.” Harper joins Dexter Fowler, Freddie Freeman, Adam Wainwright, Shin-Soo Choo and dozens upon dozens of other big leaguers who have been active in their communities and made charitable contributions in the fight against the pandemic.
A couple more notes out of Philadelphia…
- A decision on right-hander Seranthony Dominguez‘s right elbow is on “pause” for now, general manager Matt Klentak told reporters Thursday (link via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer). The Phillies’ medical staff recommended Tommy John surgery after an MRI, and Dominguez was slated to receive a second opinion shortly thereafter. However, that recommendation coincided with the implementation of travel restrictions in Dominguez’s native Dominican Republic, and the righty quickly traveled back home to be with family while he was still able. Now, Dominguez’s second opinion and potential surgery are both on hold. Klentak acknowledged that Tommy John is still a definite possibility but stressed that the situation is not black-and-white. “For a lot of players, surgery is the last option they want to consider,” said Klentak. “…Before we go down that road we just want to make sure that everybody’s in agreement that [Tommy John surgery] is the right course of action.”
- Also on hold for the time being are the team’s extension talks with star catcher J.T. Realmuto. The league mandated that extension talks be halted during MLB’s league-wide roster freeze, so the two sides can’t even talk about a potential long-term deal. Klentak emphasized today, though, that he hopes to eventually rekindle talks with Realmuto’s camp. “I think you all know that we love J.T., and he’s a player that we would love to have with us for the long haul,” said the GM. Realmuto was reportedly seeking to top Buster Posey‘s $159MM guarantee and set a new average annual value precedent for catchers — which could’ve meant an asking price upwards of $26-27MM annually over a six-year term. He’s slated to become a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason.
Giants Release Jerry Blevins, Brandon Guyer
The Giants released left-hander Jerry Blevins and outfielder Brandon Guyer shortly before the league-wide roster freeze was implemented, per Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. Both veterans had been in Major League camp as non-roster invitees this spring.
It was a rough spring for the 36-year-old Blevins, who was tagged for nine runs on 10 hits and a pair of walks with three strikeouts in just 3 2/3 innings of work. In all, the southpaw allowed 12 of the 23 hitters he faced to reach base.
That said, Blevins also had a quality showing for the Braves in 2019, tossing 32 1/3 innings of 3.90 ERA ball. He punched out 37 hitters against 16 walks in that time and held opposing lefties to a miserable .180/.261/.279 slash. Righties handled him much better, slashing .233/.347/.483, however. It’s been a similar story for Blevins throughout his career — .583 OPS from opposing lefties; .743 from righties — and it stands to reason that he’s the type of player whose skill set is largely undercut by MLB’s new three-batter minimum. If the season is able to be played out, it’s likely he’d need to latch on elsewhere on another nonguaranteed deal.
As for Guyer, the 34-year-old appeared in only five spring games with the Giants and went 1-for-7 in nine total plate appearances. (Yes, he was hit by a pitch in one of them.) Guyer hasn’t played in the Majors since 2018 after spending the bulk of the 2019 season on the injured list with the White Sox’ top minor league affiliate in Charlotte. He’s a career .250/.339/.388 hitter but is best used as a platoon piece, as evidenced by a lifetime .274/.376/.449 batting line against left-handed pitchers.
Rangers’ James Jones Out Until 2021 Due To Torn Patellar Tendon
Rangers lefty James Jones sustained a torn patellar tendon in his right knee Monday, tweets TR Sullivan of MLB.com. The injury occurred when Jones tripped over one of his son’s toys at home, Sullivan adds. He’s expected to be sidelined until Spring Training 2021 after undergoing surgery to repair the tendon.
Jones, 31, reached the Majors in 2014-15 with the Mariners as an outfielder and hit .238/.268/.296 in a total of 359 plate appearances. His struggles at the plate were obvious, but he did possess well above-average speed and baserunning prowess, evidenced by a 28-for-30 record in stolen base attempts across 136 MLB games.
Unlike others who have attempted to work their way to the big leagues as a two-way player, Jones is now focused solely on mound work. He began exploring the possibility of pitching in 2016 and by 2018 had converted to a relief pitcher on a full-time basis. Jones’ 2018 season was ugly, to say the least (7.34 ERA in 30 2/3 innings), but in 2019 he proved that the experiment could be worthwhile.
In 64 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Jones pitched to an excellent 2.67 ERA with a 71-to-30 K/BB ratio while allowing only six home runs. Over his final 31 appearances (45 innings), he turned in an even more eye-catching 1.40 ERA. Lefties were utterly helpless against him (.163/.267/.283), and right-handed hitters didn’t fare particularly well themselves (.218/.333/.338).
It’s a brutal injury for a player who appeared to have a legitimate chance at returning to the big leagues after spending three years overhauling his skill set and reinventing himself as a player. His strong showing in 2019 should earn him another look down the road — be it with Texas or another organization.
Mariners Release Cody Anderson
The Mariners have released righty Cody Anderson, as per the roundup of pre-roster freeze transactions from Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. He had been in camp as a non-roster player.
Anderson joined the Seattle organization in mid-February, representing his first time with another club after nine years in the Indians system. He was knocked around for eight hits and four earned runs in three innings of Cactus League action.
Now 29 years of age, Anderson showed well with a strong 15-start debut in 2015. But he struggled in the ensuing campaign and ultimately went down to Tommy John surgery. Anderson did return to the majors briefly last year after a two-season absence, but struggled in brief action.
Season Cancellation Would Not Delay Luhnow, Hinch Reinstatement
Former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch will not serve any suspension time beyond 2020, regardless of whether a season is played, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. Both were fired by the Houston organization after MLB issued year-long bans arising out of the sign-stealing scandal of the 2017 Astros.
Per the report, this determination was made “because the suspensions are tied to the end of the 2020 postseason rather than a specific number of games.” That’s not necessarily a compelling technical reading — if that’s even the right way to address the matter. Regardless, it does seem consistent in substance with the reported handling of player suspensions.
If indeed this is how commissioner Rob Manfred handles things, then the path will be clear for both Luhnow and Hinch to return later this year — as had been the case before the surprise coronavirus shutdown.Presumably, the same determination will hold for former Astros bench coach and Red Sox manager Alex Cora, if he ends up being suspended.
Whether or not that comes to pass will obviously depend upon whether some team takes a chance. When we polled MLBTR readers in early February, most anticipated that Luhnow would never return to a GM seat but that Hinch would again be tasked with leading a dugout. Hinch was certainly a more broadly popular figure and has struck a much more conciliatory tone since the sign-stealing scandal broke. On the other hand, he was also in the dugout while the illicit activity occurred and did not avail himself of the many avenues to halt it. It is less clear to what extent Luhnow was fully aware of the cheating scheme.
Tigers Release, Re-Sign Jordy Mercer, Zack Godley
In advance of the MLB-wide roster freeze, the Tigers released and re-signed veterans Jordy Mercer and Zack Godley, per Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. It was a procedural move, per Chris McCoskey of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter), no doubt relating to their opt-out clauses. Both players remain with the organization on minor-league pacts.
*The original version of this post misinterpreted the underlying story and failed to recognize that both players had been re-signed. We regret the error.
Mercer, the long-time Pirates shortstop, spent the 2019 season with the Detroit organization and returned as a non-roster invitee in the past offseason. He missed a lot of time due to injury but turned in a sturdy .270/.310/.438 batting line when healthy. Mercer has hit well thus far in camp and would appear to be a solidifying presence in a largely uncertain infield mix.
As for Godley, 29, he handed out eight walks in 4 1/3 innings of spring action. But he’ll still have a shot at earning a bounceback opportunity in Detroit. Godley emerged as a quality rotation piece in 2017 with the Diamondbacks but took a step back in the ensuing season and struggled mightily last year. His deal includes a $1.5MM salary and $1.5MM in possible incentives, if he can earn his way to the majors.
Reds Release Junichi Tazawa, Chris Volstad, Felix Jorge
The Reds recently released a trio of hurlers, Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America reports. Righties Junichi Tazawa, Chris Volstad, and Felix Jorge were all cut loose before the coronavirus-related roster freeze went into effect.
Each of these pitchers had joined the Cincinnati organization on minor-league deals. It was unlikely in each case that they’d earn a roster spot out of camp.
Tazawa, once a highly productive reliever, failed to crack the majors last year. The nine-year MLB veteran came to the Reds late last season after he was cut free from the Cubs. He had received one spring outing but obviously didn’t show enough to impress the Reds’ brass.
Volstad is another 33-year-old righty with significant MLB action under his belt. He was looking for a comeback after not appearing in the 2019 season. Volstad carries a 5.00 ERA in 772 1/3 career MLB innings.
The 26-year-old Jorge has only minimal experience at the game’s highest level. He has battled health issues over the past two campaigns. Back in 2017, the last time he completed a substantial number of innings, he worked to a 3.68 ERA in 149 upper-minors innings while also earning a brief call-up.
Latest News & Notes On Coronavirus & Baseball
We’re all pining for the return of baseball. It’d be nice to watch, especially in these trying times. More than anything, though, the start of play would mean that we’ve achieved some amount of control over the spread of the coronavirus — and, perhaps, that there’d be an end in sight to the suffering it has wrought. In the meantime, we join all those around the world in honoring the brave health care professionals, first responders, logistical employees, and others who are doing everything they can to sustain us.
- The unfolding tragedy is particularly acute in New York, the present American epicenter of the COVID-19 crisis. Baseball is an afterthought. Any hope of playing it will depend upon addressing the broader public health need, as Yankees reliever Zack Britton acknowledges (via MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, on Twitter). “At the end of the day,” he says of talk regarding the scheduling of the 2020 season, “it doesn’t matter until the virus gets under control and cities and people are able just to go back to everyday life, let alone being able to go and watch baseball or us play baseball.” Getting to a point where the spread is manageable seems an obvious prerequisite for sports, even if played without fans. But the league and union are rightly thinking ahead and trying to plan to move back online as soon as possible. Britton says the sides have already begun considering potential neutral sites to stage games, potentially providing alternative venues that could be utilized as needed. The unnamed locations would have the sorts of playing, lodging, and other facilities required to make play possible.
- We’ve seen many MLB players pitch in financially and otherwise. They’re also quite understandably thinking of the needs of their families. Veteran Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka has headed back to his native Japan with his wife and child while waiting for baseball to resume, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com reports. Tanaka says he felt in “danger” in Florida, where the virus is a growing threat. He also chose against returning to the home he maintains in New York. (There is at least a touch of baseball-specific news on the Yankees’ pitching staff, as we covered here yesterday.)
- Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has revealed that one employee of the team has tested positive for COVID-19, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets. The unnamed employee was not on hand at the club’s spring facility during camp; rather, he or she was stationed in St. Louis. MLBTR extends its best wishes for a quick and full recovery. Fortunately, that seems to be just what occurred for legendary former Cardinals and Angels outfielder Jim Edmonds. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes, Edmonds ended up in the hospital for pneumonia and ultimately tested positive for COVID-19. But he’s thankfully already on the mend.
- It’s always worth highlighting the good acts that take place in times of crisis. As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, the Rays have initiated some assistance to local charity Feeding Tampa Bay, promising $100K and another $150K in matching funds to help spur a food drive. The Feeding Tampa Bay executive director calls it a “tremendous gift.” Meanwhile Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy is the latest veteran player to make a sizable financial commitment. He’s giving $100K to a “family assistance fund” to assist minor-leaguers who support children or other family members. More on that initiative here.
Prospect Faceoff: Franco v. Lux
Yesterday’s prospect faceoff post featured two fairly similar youngsters: upper-level left-handed hurlers MacKenzie Gore and Jesus Luzardo. Today, we’ll examine another duo with a lot of commonalities … but they won’t be quite so closely situated.
Glance up at the top ten list of most prospect rankings and you’ll see two middle infielders: Wander Franco of the Rays and Gavin Lux of the Dodgers. MLB.com and Fangraphs rank them 1-2. They share many attributes beyond position and lofty prospect standing. But these two players also present completely different propositions.
Franco is more or less universally considered the game’s very best prospect. But he also just turned 19 on March 1st and hasn’t yet played above the High-A level. In his two A-ball stops last year, the switch-hitter carried a collective .327/.398/.487 batting line with nine long balls over 495 plate appearances. He swiped 18 bags but was also gunned down 14 times.
This is not a complete product. There are some questions as to whether Franco will stick at shortstop, though he has thus far proven capable. More importantly, perhaps, is the fact that his power is still more a projection than a present skill. But the scouts see the potential in his actions at the plate. And Franco seems quite likely to maximize whatever raw power he ends up with given his exceptional plate discipline and contact ability. Franco recorded 56 walks against just 35 strikeouts last year while driving the ball around the yard. Though he hardly carries a big frame, Franco is said to carry immense wrist strength and bat speed. And his command of the zone will make him awfully tough to pitch to.
Do you feel like you need some precedent to believe a player can convert plate discipline and less-than-imposing physical stature? How about Lux? He didn’t put a single ball over the fence in 253 rookie ball plate appearances, then managed only seven dingers in 501 trips to the dish at the Class A level. But last year, Lux produced 26 long balls in his 523 upper-minors plate appearances.
Lux never quite matched Franco’s ludicrous K/BB numbers. But he’s not easy to retire on strikes, knows how to draw a walk, and features a blend of power and average. Last year’s minor-league slash line: .347/.421/.607. That’ll play, particularly for a guy known as a quality baserunner and fielder. What of the notorious PCL offensive inflation? Lux exploded with a 188 wRC+ in Triple-A, so the numbers stand out even against a high mean. While Lux may end up playing second base with the powerhouse Dodgers, he’s generally considered capable of holding down shortstop in the majors.
And here’s the thing about Lux: he has already reached and shown he can hang at the game’s highest level. He didn’t exactly take the league by storm when he arrived late in 2019. But Lux produced a .240/.305/.400 slash in 82 plate appearances. And he was trusted with a postseason roster spot. It remains to be seen whether Lux will be a perennial All-Star or something less, but when it comes to getting value from a guy, he’s about as sure a thing as a prospect can be.
In this case, there’s probably not much question that Franco has the loftier ceiling. And we have seen players shoot up from the lower minors into the majors rather quickly, so he may not be far off from a debut if he terrorizes the upper minors as expected. But there’s inherently much more risk in such a player than in Lux, who’s ready to slot in as a MLB regular as soon as this season finally gets underway. Particularly if you’re somewhat risk-averse and/or need immediate contributions in the majors, perhaps Lux is actually the better bet.
Which prospect would you prefer to have? (Poll link for app users.)
Which prospect would you rather have?
-
Wander Franco 51% (2,666)
-
Gavin Lux 49% (2,518)
Total votes: 5,184