The Mariners Might’ve Struck DFA Gold
Over the past couple of seasons, the Padres have struck gold on a pair of bullpen waiver claims, parlaying essentially free pickups of Brad Hand and Kirby Yates into utterly dominant performances at the MLB level over the life of multiple seasons. We see relievers whom we believe to be more or less fungible make the rounds on the waiver, DFA and minor trade circuit with great regularity, as clubs hope to acquire their own Yates or Hand. No one has had that level of success in recent years.
Enter Austin Adams. No, not that Austin Adams from Detroit/Minnesota. The one who pitched with Washington/Seattle in 2019. (Who can forget the hope we had for an Austin Adams vs. Austin Adams showdown when Minnesota and Seattle met over the summer?) With all due respect to Minnesota/Detroit Austin Adams, it’s the Seattle version that particularly intrigues to this onlooker. And yes, technically he wasn’t a waiver claim — but being acquired in a DFA limbo trade in exchange for a 23-year-old lefty with a career 5.00-plus ERA who has yet to reach Double-A isn’t much different.
There’s a good chance that casual MLBTR readers are wholly unaware that even one Austin Adams exists in MLB — let alone two. Some, meanwhile, may think it’s just one guy who’s bounced all over the league. More dedicated fans might be keenly aware of both! To this point, the career of each has been rather unremarkable. So why did I spend what I freely admit to be far, far too much time researching and writing this post? Here’s why!
In mulling potential names to profile as breakout candidates, I made a list of players who came to mind easily, then did some rudimentary perusals of various leaderboards for names that surprised me. Jeff Todd and I have spoken about how Adams had looked like a steal for the Mariners in his half season there, but I was nevertheless a bit stunned when browsing FanGraphs and seeing Adams’ name land eighth among 259 MLB relievers (min. 30 IP) in K-BB% at 30.6. His 2.71 SIERA tied him with Will Smith for 12th-best in that same subset and put him alongside top relievers like Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, Ken Giles, Emilio Pagan and Seth Lugo. Not bad company! But we’re talking about a sample of 32 innings. I remained skeptical, although admittedly intrigued. Absent of actual baseball news on which to focus — why not dig in?
First up, his primary offering! Adams’ four-seam– wait, no. He throws his slider twice as much as his four-seamer. Only two pitchers threw sliders at a higher clip than Adams’ whopping 64.6 percent, and the pitch was filthy (just ask Christian Yelich). Opponents posted a pitiful .133/.217/.229 slash against it and swung through the offering at a gaudy 22 percent clip. Twenty-two percent isn’t quite Josh Hader/Nick Anderson territory — that’s nearly 25 percent — but it’s pretty darn close. Among 450 pitchers who threw 50 or more sliders in 2019, Adams ranked 25th in terms of spin rate (94th percentile). Not too shabby.
A look at Adams’ fastball initially proved similarly encouraging. He throws the pitch hard (average 95.3 mph) and spins it even better than his slider. There were 598 pitchers in the Majors who threw at least 50 four-seam fastballs in 2019. Only eleven of them had a higher spin rate. Surely, hitters struggled with Adams’ four-seamer just as much as with his slider! Or so I thought. In reality, they hit .263/.464/.632 against it. That… is bad.
However, that’s also a small sample of pitches within an already small sample of innings. Those numbers look terrible, granted, but the reality is that Adams threw his fastball infrequently enough that hitters were all of 5-for-19 against it. Two of those five hits were dingers, and another was a double. A four-seamer was also called for ball four on eight of the 16 walks he issued in 2019. That’s one way to inflate a slash line real quickly.
Adams is interesting in that his slider is so good, he uses the pitch at extraordinary levels when he’s ahead in the count. It’s part of the reason he’s averaged better than 14 strikeouts per nine innings in his minor league career and nearly 15 per nine in the Majors last season. But his fastball, despite its spin and velocity, hasn’t been effective. He throws it almost exclusively when he’s behind in the count or on the first pitch — such situations accounted for a whopping 131 of his 176 four-seamers in 2019 — and he doesn’t command that heater especially well. Only 90 of his 176 four-seam fastballs were thrown in the strike zone, and Adams tossed a first-pitch strike at just a 54.6 percent rate. The league average was 60.9 percent.
Unsurprisingly, Adams has battled walk issues throughout his career. He walked 16 hitters in his 32 frames last year, and that was actually an improvement over his career marks in the minors (5.8 BB/9 overall — 5.0 in Triple-A). Adams has also plunked two hitters in the Majors, hit 2.2 percent of the batters he’s faced in his minor league career and uncorked a combined 71 wild pitches in 384 2/3 innings. He’s no Rick Vaughn, but the “Wild Thing” moniker wouldn’t be a total stretch, either.
The contrast between Adams’ slider and fastball isn’t the only set of contradictory components to his skill set. A look at Adams’ .263 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) indicates that based on his K-BB numbers and the quality of contact he allows, hitters should be overwhelmed by him. Only 34 of the 631 pitchers who allowed at least 50 balls in play last year had a lower xwOBA. And yet, it’s clear that Adams’ strikeout prowess weighs heaviest of all in that evaluation. He tied for 461st in terms of opponents’ exit velocity within that same subset and was right in the middle of the pack with 8.3 percent of the balls put into play against him being considered “barreled” by Statcast.
Adams’ power slider, his ability to miss bats and his ability to keep the ball on the ground (50 percent) are a tantalizing combination that give him the makings of a potentially dominant reliever. His lack of fastball command and his propensity for surrendering hard contact have held him back to this point.
So — what to make of Adams? He’ll be 29 years old by the time the season begins — if it does at all — and will be on his way back from surgery to repair a torn ACL. That’s not as worrisome as an arm injury but certainly an issue that can have lingering effects. But the Mariners were clearly encouraged enough to keep him on the 40-man roster all winter despite undergoing that rehab-intensive surgery in September. It’s true that the bullpen-starved Nationals (for several years now) never even gave Adams a real look, but I’d wager they’d like a mulligan on parting with him after watching him pitch with the Mariners.
I’m by no means proclaiming that Adams is going to go full Yates this season and post a 1.19 ERA while leading the league in saves — although I will obviously delete this sentence demand retroactive credit if he does! — but he’s shown the tools to be the type of late-blooming breakout reliever that few saw coming, much like Yates and Hand were down in San Diego. It’s far easier to write “with better control of his fastball…” than it is for Adams to actual improve that skill, but the foundation for a knockout reliever is clearly in place here.
And if there’s a team that can afford to give Adams a lengthy look, it’s one like Seattle. The Mariners are in what they hope will be the final stages of an accelerated rebuild, and a healthy Adams could potentially play a notable role in that. The Seattle bullpen is a hodgepodge of fliers and young MLB hopefuls, with no set closer of which to speak. It’s entirely possible that a Adams could find himself holding down a high-leverage role and at last carving out a spot for himself in the big leagues. Of course, he’s also out of minor league options and coming off a major knee surgery, so this isn’t some surefire breakout candidate. But few relievers acquired at this low of a price have this dominant of a pitch and demonstrate as much potential as Adams did in 2019.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBPA Approves Assistance Program For Non-Roster Players With Prior MLB Service
The Major League Baseball Players Association on Friday approved a program intended to provide supplemental income to non-roster players with prior Major League service time, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links) and Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links).
Under the newly implemented program, players with at least a day of MLB service time who were in Major League camp on a non-roster deal as of March 13 will be eligible to receive anywhere from $5,000 (less than one year of service) to $50,000 (six-plus years) depending on their level of prior experience. The program, entitled the MLBPA Financial Assistance Program, is aimed at previous big leaguers who were not covered under last week’s $170MM settlement that would be paid out in the event of a canceled season because they’re not currently on a 40-man roster. It’s an optional program, per both Rosenthal and Brown, meaning that those with ample financial security may choose not to opt in.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds a more detailed breakdown of the payout structure, reporting that players with at least one day of service time but less than a full year are eligible for the minimum $5K supplement. Players between one and two years of service could accrue $7500, while players with two to three years could earn $15K. Those with three-plus years of service but fewer than six are eligible for a $25K payout, and players with six-plus years of MLB service can claim the full $50K.
The new program is likely of particular import to players in the lowest bracket — e.g. Pittsburgh’s James Marvel (22 days of MLB service), Texas’ Ian Gibaut (41 days), etc. — but may not be utilized by more veteran players who’ve earned tens of millions of dollars in their careers. It does not replace the $400 weekly stipend that was afforded to minor leaguers through the end of May, the majority of whom won’t benefit from this new program by virtue of the fact that they’ve never been on a 40-man roster and thus never been under the union’s umbrella. As the New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweets, however, the MLBPA wanted to provide some extra cover for those who’ve previously paid union dues while spending time on a 40-man roster.
Video: Grading Rick Hahn’s Trade History For The White Sox
White Sox GM Rick Hahn has shaped the team as both a buyer and seller in many major trades over the years, involving Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Peavy, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and more. Check out today’s video to see Jeff Todd’s evaluation of Hahn’s trade history.
Prospect Faceoff: Bart vs. Rutschman
The parallels between the Giants’ Joey Bart and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman are plentiful. Both were standout catchers at reputable Division-I schools –Bart at Georgia Tech and Rutschman at Oregon State. Bart was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 but went second overall to San Francisco. A year later, in 2019, Rutschman went No. 1 overall to Baltimore. Both draw significant praise for their defensive skills — each received a 60-grade on the 20-80 scale at both FanGraphs and MLB.com — as well as their raw power (again, both 60s). They’re widely considered to be the top two catching prospects in the game.
Bart 23, is about 14 months older than Rutschman and has already climbed as high as Double-A on the minor league ladder. He spent most of the 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, hitting .265/.315/.479 (116 wRC+) before a 22-game stint in Double-A where he finished on a tear: .316/.368/.544 (163 wRC+). Bart went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .333/.524/.767 with four homers in 42 plate appearances before a broken thumb cut his AFL stint short. He could stand to improve his plate discipline (6.2 percent walk rate), but Bart also didn’t strike out at a particularly alarming rate (21 percent).
Behind the plate, Bart posted a rather pedestrian 27 percent caught-stealing rate across those two minor league levels before absolutely owning the run game in the AFL, where he caught nine of the 13 runners who attempted to take a base against him. Scouting reports praise his receiving and framing abilities as well as his ability to block pitches in the dirt — all things you’d expect for a catcher who was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year prior to being drafted in 2018. With Buster Posey‘s contract winding down and his production waning, it’s not out of the question to think that Bart could debut in 2020 if the season is able to get underway at some point. If not, a 2021 debut should be considered likely, barring some major injury.
The 22-year-old Rutschman, meanwhile, is obviously further from the Majors but offers many of the same skills. He’s touted as a high-end defensive catcher with a strong arm behind the plate and plenty of pop with the bat. Rutschman hit .254/.351/.423 with a hearty 13 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances in his pro debut, topping out with Class-A Delmarva. He struck out in just 17.5 percent of those plate appearances, although it’s worth pointing out that he really hasn’t faced any pitching that’s older and more experienced than he is just yet.
Unlike Bart, Rutschman is a switch-hitter. He has power from both sides of the dish even if most reports agree that his left-handed swing is superior to his right-handed swing. He threw out seven of the 11 hitters who tried to steal against him in his limited pro debut and, by all accounts, should be adept at controlling runners, calling a game, blocking pitches in the dirt and framing. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be in the Majors by 2022 — and a 2021 debut isn’t all that far-fetched (depending on any service time games the Orioles do or don’t feel like playing).
Given that Bart and Rutschman were elite college catchers who went within the first two picks of a draft class in consecutive seasons, this likely isn’t the only place you’ll see the two of them compared in the coming years. Rutschman is generally ranked more highly on prospect lists, although not by much in some cases. He’s No. 4 to Bart’s 14 at MLB.com and No. 5 against Bart’s 10 at FanGraphs. Other publications have a bit more distance between them, including Baseball America (Rutschman at 5, Bart at 32), Baseball Prospectus (Rutschman at 4, Bart at 25) and The Athletic (Rutschman at 10, Bart at 44). Prospect rankings are in a constant state of flux, though, and the pair is close enough that the consensus opinion could easily change in a few months’ time.
It’s clear that both are expected to become high-end catchers with All-Star potential, but let’s open up the debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…
Which prospect would you rather have?
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Adley Rutschman 61% (2,844)
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Joey Bart 39% (1,811)
Total votes: 4,655
How The Delayed Season Impacts The Twins
All 30 big league clubs are waiting to see whether a 2020 season will be played at all, but assuming a season is able to take place in some capacity, the prolonged delay will impact some clubs more than others. We’ve already run through the Yankees, Angels, Phillies and Athletics in this regard.
Turning to the Twins, who’ll be looking to defend their first division crown since 2010, they’ll suddenly have the opportunity to get nearly a full season out of one of their most important pitching pickups of the winter: left-hander Rich Hill.
The 40-year-old Hill underwent “primary repair” surgery on his left ulnar collateral ligament over the winter and inked a one-year, $3MM deal with Minnesota (plus $9.5MM of available incentives), knowing that he’d miss the first few months of the season. Primary repair is a less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery that can be pursued depending on the extent of the tear and its location within the ligament; Hill’s injury met the requisite criteria, and he was targeting a June or July return to the mound. It’s now possible he’ll be ready to join the Twins’ rotation early in a truncated season — if not from the very outset.
Manager Rocco Baldelli gave an update on Hill’s status in a recent interview with Steve Phillips and Eduardo Perez on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, suggesting that Hill is rehabbing and throwing and has “done very well — about as well as you could ask for.” To this point, there’s no reason to think his initial rehab timetable needs adjustment.
Hill wasn’t the ace that many Twins fans hoped to see the front office add this winter, but on a per-inning basis he remains highly effective. The durability concerns with the veteran southpaw are very real even if his recovery from offseason surgery goes as planned, but there’s no denying how good Hill has been recently when able to take the mound. In 58 2/3 innings last season, the lefty pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 — despite pitching part of the season with the ligament damage that necessitated his surgery. Hill only managed 327 regular-season innings over the past three years, but he logged a 3.30 ERA with just under 11 punchouts per nine frames in that time and also chipped in 37 innings of 2.43 ERA ball in the playoffs.
The postponement of Opening Day not only gives Hill more time to get up to speed — it also should allow the Twins to more easily manage his innings. It’s likely that rosters will be expanded at least early on, which should give Baldelli some extra relievers if the club wants to limit Hill to three to five innings per outing to begin the season. One of the Twins’ previously projected fifth starter candidates — Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe or non-roster invitee Jhoulys Chacin — could potentially be paired with Hill in a tandem or piggyback type of arrangement.
Additional downtime will also allow the Twins to ensure that several key players are at full strength to begin the year. None of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco or Marwin Gonzalez was expected to open the 2020 campaign on the injured list, but each is recovering from surgery. Buxton went under the knife last September to repair a torn labrum and was only just about to get into Grapefruit League games when Spring Training was suspended. Baldelli has said Buxton would’ve been ready for Opening Day, but there shouldn’t be any doubt about his shoulder’s well-being now.
Polanco, meanwhile, underwent surgery to repair an ankle injury that dogged him throughout the 2019 season. He appeared fine at the plate, hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 long balls, 40 doubles and seven triples, but it’s possible that the nagging ankle issue contributed to Polanco’s lackluster defensive ratings and his lack of stolen bases (just four). Gonzalez, meanwhile, underwent a debridement of the patellar tendon in his right knee over the winter and was a bit behind schedule in camp. He should be fully up to speed once play resumes.
There are also possible implications for suspended right-hander Michael Pineda, who still has 39 games remaining on a reduced 60-game ban issued late last year. That suspension will still be in effect if the 2020 season is able to be played, and there’s been no indication that it’d be shortened or prorated to reflect the reduction of games on this year’s schedule. If the season is canceled entirely, however, ESPN’s Jeff Passan has previously reported that drug suspension wouldn’t carry into the 2021 campaign. Pineda would seemingly be able to join the rotation from day one.
The hope in Minnesota is that by the end of whatever season we get, Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Hill and Pineda will combine to make the bulk of the starts. With six starters, plus the trio of Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe on hand as depth options (and perhaps Chacin as well), the Twins should be well-equipped to handle regular doubleheaders and fewer off-days in the accelerated regular-season schedule.
In a worst-case scenario that sees the season postponed entirely, the Twins could see holdovers Odorizzi, Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz and Trevor May all reach free agency. Meanwhile, Hill, Bailey, Tyler Clippard and Alex Avila could depart without ever formally suiting up in a game that counts.
Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants
The roster churn continued for the Giants, who made a plethora of lower-tier (and fairly inexpensive) acquisitions that includes a few familiar faces returning to the Bay Area.
Major League Signings
- Kevin Gausman, SP: One year, $9MM
- Wilmer Flores, IF: Two years, $6.25MM (includes $250K buyout of 3.5MM club option for 2022)
- Drew Smyly, SP: One year, $4MM
- Hunter Pence, OF: One year, $3MM
- Tony Watson, RP: One year, $3MM (Watson negotiated a new one-year pact, rather than exercise the 2020 player option in his contract)
- Tyler Anderson, SP: One year, $1.775MM (re-signed after Giants non-tendered him at Dec. 2 deadline)
- Total spend: $27.025MM
Trades And Claims
- Acquired IF Zack Cozart and IF prospect Will Wilson from the Angels for LHP prospect Garrett Williams (Cozart was released in January)
- Acquired cash considerations from the Athletics for SP/RP Burch Smith
- Claimed RP Jarlin Garcia off waivers from the Marlins
- Claimed IF Kean Wong off waivers from the Angels
- Claimed SP Trevor Oaks off waivers from the Royals
- Claimed RP Jake Jewell off waivers from the Angels
- Claimed SP Rico Garcia off waivers from the Rockies
- Claimed OF Jose Siri off waivers from the Mariners
- Claimed SP Luis Madero off waivers from the Angels
- Selected RHP Dany Jimenez from the Blue Jays in the Rule 5 Draft
Notable Minor League Signings
- Pablo Sandoval, Billy Hamilton, Yolmer Sanchez, Trevor Cahill, Tyson Ross, Nick Vincent, Joey Rickard, Rob Brantly, Andrew Triggs, Darin Ruf, Drew Robinson, Sam Moll, Cristhian Adames, Tyler Heineman, Zach Green (Jerry Blevins, Brandon Guyer and Matt Carasiti were also signed to minors contracts but have since been released)
Notable Losses
- Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Kevin Pillar, Stephen Vogt, Fernando Abad, Dan Winkler, Kyle Barraclough, Ricardo Pinto
It wasn’t nearly as headline-grabbing as the Giants’ attempt to land Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 offseason, but San Francisco similarly looked into making an impact move in this winter’s free agent market. The club at least explored the possibility of signing Nicholas Castellanos (though there were conflicting reports about the depth of that interest) and Yasiel Puig was also on the radar. Neither signing materialized.
Instead, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi continued his more measured overhaul of the roster. Yes, such staples as Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, and Brandon Crawford are all still in the orange and black. However, just because the Giants haven’t engaged in a slash-and-burn rebuild doesn’t mean a rebuild isn’t happening. Just look at the sheer volume of new talent that has been brought into the organization to surround those veteran pillars over Zaidi’s 17 months in charge of the team.
This offseason did see two major names depart the organization, as Will Smith signed with the Braves and postseason hero Mason Sau….er, Madison Bumgarner left for the NL West rival Diamondbacks. But, the Giants also brought back a pair of names from their early-decade glory days, as Pablo Sandoval re-signed on another minor league contract and Hunter Pence ended up being San Francisco’s biggest outfield acquisition.
Pence’s career seemed to be running on fumes after he left the Giants following the 2018 campaign, yet an overhauled swing led to a surprising .297/.358/.552 slash line over 316 plate appearances with the Rangers last season. Advanced metrics indicated Pence’s production was no fluke, though there is some uncertainty about whether a repeat performance is possible as Pence approaches his 36th birthday. He was limited to 83 games due to back and groin injuries in 2019, and the move back to the National League means Pence no longer has the benefit of the DH spot — 202 of his 316 PA last season came as a designated hitter.
That said, a $3MM contract doesn’t represent a major risk on San Francisco’s part, and the team doesn’t expect Pence to play every day. Pence will serve as the primary right-handed hitting complement to the left-handed hitting corner outfield duo of Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, as the Giants are eager to see what the two 29-year-olds can do after their promising 2019 seasons.
Center field is more of a question mark. Kevin Pillar hit 21 homers in 2019 and was a clubhouse leader, but the Giants opted to non-tender the veteran center fielder rather than pay him a projected $9.7MM in salary arbitration. Steven Duggar was also optioned to Triple-A prior to the roster freeze, and while Duggar is likely to re-emerge in the big leagues if the season gets underway, minor league signing Billy Hamilton could be the current favorite for the bulk of center field playing time.
Hamilton hasn’t been able to match even Pillar’s traditionally subpar offensive numbers over his career, but he still provides elite defense and will come at a much lower price than $9.7MM if and when the Giants officially select his contract. The more intriguing option in center field, however, is Mauricio Dubon. After a respectable rookie year, the Giants plan to deploy Dubon on the outfield grass as well as at second base. He could also spell Longoria at third base and Crawford at shortstop.
Dubon’s potential as a multi-position threat makes him an even bigger piece of the Giants’ future, particularly if he shows he can passably handle center field duty. Dubon had been expected to be the regular second baseman in 2020, though since he could be shifting around the diamond, the Giants addressed the keystone with a pair of veteran signings.
Reigning AL Gold Glove winner Yolmer Sanchez inked a minor league deal with the Giants after being non-tendered by the White Sox, while Wilmer Flores scored the only multi-year commitment of San Francisco’s offseason — a two-year deal worth $6.25MM in guaranteed money. Besides second base, Flores can also serve as a corner infielder and could get some first base time against left-handed pitching (in lieu of the left-handed hitting Belt) while Sanchez plays second base and Dubon lines up in center field.
That is only one potential gameplan for new manager Gabe Kapler, however, as the Giants also have Sandoval, Donovan Solano, and Kean Wong available in the infield picture, plus minor league signings Darin Ruf and Zach Green were tearing up Cactus League pitching before Spring Training was halted. It’s fair to assume that any or all of these names could have been mixed and matched even if the season had begun under normal circumstances, and in the event of a shortened schedule with as many games as possible crammed into a reduced timeframe, the Giants are even more likely to rely on depth.
The depth behind the plate, however, took a hit when Aramis Garcia underwent labrum surgery in February. With a projected six-to-eight month recovery period, Garcia could potentially return even on the back end of that timeframe, should the regular season be extended into October (and the postseason into November and beyond). Until then, San Francisco will go with Rob Brantly or Tyler Heineman as Posey’s backup, as Joey Bart will probably not join the MLB roster until 2021, barring a change in strategy for the organization in light of the altered schedule.
Starting pitching was perhaps the clearest need of the winter, and the Giants addressed the rotation by signing Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly for two of the open spots behind Cueto and Samardzija. Both Gausman and Smyly are looking to bounce back after struggling in 2019, with Gausman perhaps having the better chance at a rebound after seemingly getting on track as a reliever with the Reds and suffering some bad BABIP luck (.345) as a starter with the Braves.
It isn’t out of the question that Gausman or Smyly eventually wind up in San Francisco’s bullpen, should any of the Giants’ younger pitchers emerge. Tyler Beede is gone for the season due to Tommy John surgery, leaving Logan Webb, Trevor Cahill, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Oaks, and Andrew Suarez to compete for the fifth starter’s job. Any of this bunch could step into another rotation spot if Gausman or Smyly don’t pitch well, plus Tyler Anderson will also get a crack at starting once he fully recovers from knee surgery.
There is very little certainty within any of these options, of course, which could be why there was so little trade buzz about Cueto or Samardzija over the winter. Cueto had less trade value after pitching only 16 innings in 2019 in his return from Tommy John surgery, though Samardzija stands out as a prime trade candidate as he enters the final year of his contract. If the 2020 season is canceled entirely, however, Samardzija would still be eligible for free agency, and the Giants would potentially miss an opportunity to trade a veteran for some additional prospect help or salary relief (as they did by dealing Drew Pomeranz and Mark Melancon at last year’s trade deadline).
The biggest trade of San Francisco’s offseason saw the club focus on adding minor league talent, as the Giants agreed to what was essentially a “buy a prospect” trade with the Angels. The target was 21-year-old shortstop Will Wilson, the 15th overall pick of the 2019 draft, whom the Angels surrendered in order to get the remaining $12.167MM of Zack Cozart’s contract off their books. The Giants absorbed Cozart’s salary and then released him a month later.
Could we see Zaidi and GM Scott Harris use this same tactic again in 2020? It’s possible, given that there has been some speculation that some teams could be particularly eager to unload salaries due to the reduced schedule, and we already know that Zaidi’s front office is open to any transaction. Then again, it’s also hard to forecast how even a wealthier franchise like the Giants could adjust to the financial uncertainty facing the league.
2020 Season Outlook
The possibility of a reduced or lost season is a major blow to a Giants club that is still trying to figure out which of its current players will be part of its next contending team. Top prospects like Bart or Heliot Ramos could lose an entire year’s worth of minor league seasoning, while the jury will still be out on whether younger members of the MLB roster (e.g. Dubon, Webb) are full-fledged big leaguers or if older but still not established players like Dickerson or Yastrzemski can build on their 2019 numbers.
Fangraphs projected the Giants for a 71-91 record over a full season, a dropoff even from their modest 77-win total from 2019. While the small sample size wildness of a reduced schedule could lead to surprises, the Giants simply don’t match up well on paper with most of the National League, and it seems rather clear that the front office views the 2020 season as a development year.
How would you grade the Giants’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
How Would You Grade The Giants' Offseason?
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C 41% (1,049)
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D 24% (619)
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B 22% (560)
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F 9% (232)
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A 5% (124)
Total votes: 2,584
Rebound Candidate: Domingo Santana
To say it was a low-spending winter for the Indians would be an understatement. They largely stayed away from doling out guaranteed contracts, but the one-year, $1.5MM pact they handed outfielder Domingo Santana was among the few. The Indians are hoping Santana can turn the clock back a couple seasons and help them reclaim the American League Central from the reigning division champion Twins. If there is a season in 2020, Santana figures to at least open it as a prominent member of the Indians’ lineup.
In the event that the Indians get something resembling the 2017 version of Santana, it’ll go down as one of the shrewdest bargain signings of the offseason. As a member of the Brewers that year, Santana batted .278/.371/.505 (127 wRC+) with 30 home runs, 15 stolen bases and 3.3 fWAR in 607 plate appearances. Santana crashed to earth the next year, though, and the Brewers traded him to the Mariners during the ensuing offseason.
At first, the Santana pickup looked like a wise move by the Mariners. Santana was an effective offensive player during the first half of the season, but thanks in part to a nagging right elbow injury, his production tanked from July onward. Santana wound up posting a .253/.329/.441 line (good for a 107 wRC+) with 21 homers and eight steals over 507 PA. That’s not going to cut it for someone who was inept in the field, where he accounted for a horrific minus-16 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-16.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. Santana’s defensive troubles helped overshadow his passable performance at the plate, rendering him a replacement-level player (0.0 fWAR). As a result, the Mariners non-tendered Santana during the winter in lieu of paying him a projected $4.4MM in arbitration.
Based on the numbers he put up from 2018-19, Santana’s days as an impact contributor could be over. And he didn’t help himself during spring training before it shut down, collecting twice as many strikeouts as hits (10 to five) in an admittedly small sample size consisting of 25 trips to the plate. That said, there may be at least some hope for a revival on the offensive side. As mentioned, Santana’s elbow failed him in 2019 and had a hand in his horrid second-half output, so staying healthy this year would bode well for a rebound. Plus, it’s worth noting that Santana fared rather nicely in multiple Statcast categories as a Mariner. He ranked in the league’s 69th percentile in hard-hit rate and expected weighted on-base average (.347, compared to a .326 real wOBA), and in its 74th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.492). Santana also finished with an excellent .483 xwOBA on contact.
One clear issue for Santana is that he had great difficulty actually putting the bat on the ball last year, finishing 11th worst among 135 qualifiers in contact percentage (69.9) and dead last in strikeout rate (32.3). But an overwhelming amount of strikeouts is what everyone has come to expect from Santana, who has fanned 32 percent of the time since he debuted in the majors in 2014. Even in his career-best 2017, Santana went down on strikes at a 29 percent-plus clip. However, he helped offset that to some degree with a 12.5 percent walk rate – a number that dipped below 10 percent in each of the previous two seasons.
Along with better health and amassing more walks, it seems Santana’s value to the Indians will increase if they keep him away from the field. For the most part, Santana has been a defensive nightmare in the bigs, having recorded minus-37 DRS and a minus-31.2 UZR. He should see a lot of DH time in Cleveland, which ought to aid in maximizing his value, but one problem for the club is that it has a similar corner outfielder in Franmil Reyes. He’s another powerful, high-strikeout, defensively challenged player. At least one of those two will be in the outfield on a regular basis, and that probably doesn’t sound too appealing if you’re a member of Cleveland’s pitching staff.
Considering Santana’s defensive shortcomings, the Indians couldn’t have taken a flier on the 27-year-old expecting him to hold his own in the field. Instead, the hope for the Indians is that Santana will reach his previous heights as a hitter, and it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see him at least log respectable numbers at the plate if his health holds up. The team’s paying Santana relatively little, so he shouldn’t have much trouble living up to his deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2020 Amateur Draft Pool Allocations
After easily finishing with Major League Baseball’s worst record (47-114) in 2019, the Tigers are set to pick first in this upcoming summer’s draft. The Orioles – owners of the No. 1 pick a year ago – will make the second choice, but they have the most money available to sign their selections, as Jim Callis of MLB.com details. On the opposite end of the spectrum, after losing their first- and second-round picks as a result of a sign-stealing scandal, the Astros have the least cash at their disposal.
This is shaping up to be a rather unusual and far shorter draft because of the coronavirus pandemic. The draft spanned 40 rounds from 2012-19, but it could go down to as few as five rounds this year. MLB can increase that amount at its discretion, but regardless, it’s going to be a truncated event. Furthermore, while the draft is scheduled to start June 10, odds are that the league will push it back until sometime in July.
Courtesy of Callis, all teams’ bonus pools for this year’s draft can be seen below. Callis also included totals in the event of a 10-round draft, which are in parentheses. If you’re interested in finding out the slot value of each selection, check out Callis’ piece:
Orioles: $13,871,500 ($14,936,200)
Tigers: $13,276,000 ($14,348,100)
Royals: $12,499,500 ($13,549,800)
Marlins: $11,967,100 ($13,024,700)
Pirates: $11,132,700 ($12,162,800)
Padres: $10,652,600 ($11,675,600)
Rockies: $10,319,500 ($11,336,200)
Mariners: $10,218,400 ($11,255,200)
Blue Jays: $9,694,300 ($10,737,700)
Giants: $9,165,000 ($10,156,500)
Reds: $8,510,400 ($9,508,400)
Cardinals: $7,803,300 ($8,748,900)
White Sox: $7,744,700 ($8,749,200)
Indians: $7,616,200 ($8,551,100)
Rays: $7,432,400 ($8,362,200)
Diamondbacks: $7,166,200 ($8,128,000)
Mets: $7,101,200 ($8,057,500)
Rangers: $7,065,100 ($8,050,700)
Cubs: $6,702,600 ($7,676,000)
Nationals: $6,588,300 ($7,528,700)
Red Sox: $6,514,300 ($7,481,900)
Angels: $6,377,000 ($7,387,600)
Brewers: $6,028,600 ($6,979,500)
Dodgers: $5,862,900 ($6,768,000)
Phillies: $5,425,000 ($6,404,300)
Athletics: $5,199,300 ($6,118,900)
Twins: $4,493,400 ($5,408,000)
Braves: $4,114,100 ($5,039,000)
Yankees: $3,509,800 ($4,419,500)
Astros: $2,176,500 ($3,077,000)
Angels Release Roberto Baldoquin
It has been five years since the Angels, led at that point by former general manager Jerry Dipoto, signed Cuban infield prospect Roberto Baldoquin for what was then a record bonus worth $8MM. But the Angels and current GM Billy Eppler have moved on from Baldoquin, whom they recently released, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America.
Including the 100 percent overage tax that accompanied the Baldoquin signing, the Angels forked over somewhere between $14MM and $15MM to land him, as Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register note. The Halos ultimately got nothing from that investment. To make matters worse, the Baldoquin deal prevented the Angels from inking an international free agent for more than $300K during the ensuing two signing periods, which featured the likes of Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. All three signed for greater amounts.
Baldoquin, who will turn 26 years old next month, has never stood out in minor league baseball since he emigrated from his homeland. With the exception of a decent short-term High-A stint in 2018, his numbers at the lower levels have ranged from a bit below average to terrible. Baldoquin’s struggled continued last year in Double-A ball, where he batted .232/.291/.301 (74 wRC+) with two home runs and a microscopic .070 isolated power mark in 299 trips to the plate.
NL West Notes: Martin, Giants, Ubaldo
Right-hander Corbin Martin, one of four players the Astros sent to Arizona in the Zack Greinke blockbuster, had been on the Diamondbacks‘ radar for awhile, writes Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription required). They’d first targeted him in the 2017 draft and again in trade talks with the ‘Stros centered around Paul Goldschmidt — but Houston wasn’t keen on including him in such a deal. At the time, Martin was 22 and fresh off 122 innings of 2.51 ERA ball between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, while Goldschmidt only had a year of control left.
Martin made his MLB debut in 2019 but underwent Tommy John surgery in July and was suddenly on the shelf for a win-now Astros club. Thus, D-backs GM Mike Hazen inquired again, and the Astros were more willing to listen the second time around. A package of Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer and Josh Rojas (plus plenty of cash to help offset Greinke’s salary) got the job done. Martin may not be an option for the Snakes until 2021, but he’s a second-rounder with a career 2.58 ERA in the minors who has ranked on Top 100 lists in both of the past two offseasons, making him an intriguing piece down the road. D-backs and Astros fans alike will want to check out the piece for thoughts from Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye on the club’s longstanding interest in Martin.
Some more out of the NL West…
- The Giants‘ release of veteran lefty Jerry Blevins only increased the odds of southpaws Jarlin Garcia and Wandy Peralta making the club, notes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Both pitchers hurled five shutout innings when exhibition games were still being played — Garcia with an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio and Peralta with a 10-to-4 mark. Given that Garcia is out of minor league options, he’d appear a particularly likely candidate to secure a spot in the ‘pen, although there’s certainly room for both. The Giants claimed both lefties off waivers, with Peralta coming over from the Reds in September and Garcia coming over from the Marlins over the winter. Each has had some success in the Majors and is controllable all the way through the 2023 season should things pan out in the Bay Area.
- Baseball’s shutdown put Ubaldo Jimenez‘s comeback attempt with the Rockies on hold, but the right-hander is open to pitching in the minors if play is able to resume, writes Nick Groke of The Athletic in an excellent column on Jimenez’s unexpected bid to revive his career (subscription required). As Groke details, Jimenez received a “fringy” Major League offer in the 2017-18 offseason but opted to stay home in the Dominican with his pregnant wife and soon-to-be-born child. This offseason, wanting to take one last shot, he called Rockies VP of international scouting Rolando Fernandez about using the team’s complex in the Dominican to refine his mechanics. That eventually turned into a solid Dominican Winter League stint, a minor league deal with the Rox and several weeks serving playing the role of wise old sage to younger Rockies pitchers like German Marquez. Manager Bud Black tells Groke that Jimenez was sitting around 91 mph with his heater early in camp. A comeback at age 36 is a long shot but would make for one heck of an in-season storyline to root for.