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Brewers Select Deolis Guerra

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The Brewers announced that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Deolis Guerra prior to today’s game, which fills the vacancy on their 40-man roster. Righty Aaron Wilkerson was optioned to Triple-A San Antonio to make room on the 25-man roster.

Offense in Triple-A is through the roof in 2019, but the 30-year-old Guerra nonetheless possesses a strong 2.61 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 and a 39.3 percent ground-ball rate. The former Mets and Twins prospect was a key part to the Johan Santana blockbuster way back in 2008 (raise your hand if you expected to see Guerra and Carlos Gomez, the headliner in that deal, garner headlines on consecutive days in 2019).

While Guerra never made it to the bigs in either New York or Minnesota, he’s seen MLB action with both the Pirates and the Angels, tossing 95 1/3 inning with a 4.17 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. His most recent action came with the Halos back in 2017, and while he didn’t post impressive bottom-line numbers that season (4.68 ERA), he did show off a 14.9 percent swinging-strike rate. Guerra has 167 punchouts in his last 146 2/3 Triple-A innings, so he’ll add a swing-and-miss arm for manager Craig Counsell — at least in the short term.

MLBTR Poll: Will The Padres Trade Kirby Yates?

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We’ve seen signs that the Padres are pondering a move this summer involving Kirby Yates. At least, that’s how I interpret recent reports from the team’s beat writers on just how hesitant the team is to move a player who has arguably been the game’s best reliever to this point of the season.

Sure, the Friars are putting out word that it’d take an “overwhelming offer” or an “unforeseen haul” to part with Yates. This is roughly like putting up your house on Zillow’s “Make Me Move” listings, but requesting blind bids instead of posting a zany asking price. Yates is totally not available … unless …

Let’s just say the Padres are interested in seeing how interested their rivals are in making a deal.

This is a familiar strategy with regard to controllable closers. And it’s one that often, but doesn’t always, lead to a swap. It feels as if Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias have been trade candidates for years. Surely, the Pirates and Reds have fielded offers, both before and after inking those two relievers to extensions. They haven’t moved … yet. The Padres have intimate, recent experience with just this sort of thing, having held onto Brad Hand, then signed him to an extension, and then traded him. Likewise, the Yankees hemmed and hawed and finally dealt Andrew Miller (like Hand, to the Indians) only after securing an offer of “two twin firstborns.”

In this case, there are certainly some strong reasons to think the Pads will have interest in a deal. Yates is already 32 years of age. The club is two games under .500 and has already been buried in the NL West (along with the rest of the division) by the powerhouse Dodgers.

On the other hand, Yates is also still controllable for another season — one in which the San Diego team hopes to be fully competitive. Heck, Yates could even be an extension candidate in the mold of Hand.

It’s hard to imagine Yates will ever look better on paper. He has racked up 27 saves in 35 1/3 innings of 1.27 ERA pitching, with an exceptional combination of 14.3 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. He has allowed just 21 hits and one home run this year. He’s earning only $3MM and change for the present campaign.

Yates has quite a lot of trade value. He also holds no shortage of appeal to a Padres team that needs to be efficient with its spending after making some uncharacteristically massive free agent outlays.

How do you see this one turning out? (Poll link for app users.)

Greg Holland’s Closer Job At Risk After 2nd Consecutive Blown Save

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Diamondbacks reliever Greg Holland’s hold on the club’s closer role appears to be tenuous after a second-straight blown save. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, skipper Torey Lovullo declined last night to confirm that the veteran hurler will keep the job moving forward.

To his credit, Lovullo wasn’t willing to make a rash decision in the immediate aftermath of another late-inning collapse. “I’m in an emotional state right now,” he said. “I want to probably think through it with a clear head.”

At the same time, the skipper acknowledge that he’s “concerned” with his veteran closer. That stands in contrast to Lovullo’s words after Holland’s hard-to-watch meltdown the night prior, when he nearly shut the door on the rival Dodgers before summoning a cavalcade around the bases with a series of free passes.

As Piecoro documents, Holland’s steady start to the year has given way to increasingly shaky performances. He has blown three of his last five save opportunities. Since a scoreless appearance against the Los Angeles club on June 5th, Holland’s earned run average has shot up from 1.31 to 3.21. Worse, he has managed just five strikeouts against seven walks in that 7 1/3-inning span.

It’s not entirely surprising that Holland has failed to sustain the early success. He’s no longer a dominating pitcher: his arm speed continues to trail off (career-low 92.2 average fastball, 84.8 mph slider) and his swinging-strike rate has fallen to levels (12.3%) not seen since his debut campaign. Free passes continue to be an issue, with Holland dishing out 5.2 per nine since the start of the 2015 season.

That said, there was (and perhaps still is) hope that Holland would be a key piece for the Snakes the rest of the way. Statcast suggests that he has been legitimately excellent at limiting hard contact, crediting him with a .253 xwOBA-against that is actually a shade better than his .256 wOBA-against.

No matter the course the team takes, Holland is an important player to the organization. Should the club elect to hang in there and continue fighting, despite a yawning divisional deficit and tough Wild Card competition, then it’ll need to take more than its fair share of tight contests. If it decides instead to cash in some chips at the deadline, Holland would be the team’s most obvious rental piece to sell. The difficulties, then, come at an awkward time for Arizona. At the moment, Holland is neither helping the team keep pace nor boosting his own trade value.

While it’d be silly to overplay the notion of the proven closer, contending teams still value late-inning experience and steadiness (and not all that infrequently will give up notable prospects in search of certainty in the 9th). Now, it’s increasingly hard to imagine the Arizona franchise successfully marketing Holland as a reliable veteran who could handle closing duties down the stretch.

Holland is guaranteed only $3.25MM on the year and needs not feature as a closer to have trade appeal. But that’s where his greatest potential value lies to the team. Odds are, he’ll be given a shot to regain his standing over the next several weeks even if he’s removed temporarily from the role.

There are also some direct financial considerations worthy of note. With thirty appearances and twenty games finished, Holland is also already in the meat of his contract’s incentive package. He has already picked up $300K in extra earnings. He can earn $100K upon reaching 35, 40, 45, and 50 appearances, with $200K apiece if he logs a 55th and 60th. And there’s $150K promised for finishing games number 25, 30, 35, and 40, with even bigger numbers thereafter ($300K at 45 and 50, $600K for 55 and 60).

Injury Notes: Lowrie, Manaea, D-backs, Scooter, Tigers

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Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Mets infielder Jed Lowrie still isn’t close to making his 2019 debut, manager Mickey Callaway told Tim Healey of Newsday and other reporters Wednesday. Lower body injuries have kept Lowrie from playing this season after he joined the Mets on a two-year, $20MM contract over the winter. With the season now at the halfway point, Callaway doesn’t even seem willing to commit to Lowrie taking the field at all in 2019. Asked if he expects to see Lowrie this year, Callaway said: “That’s hard to say. There’s so much of the season left. We’ll just have to play that by ear.”

Theo Epstein On Cubs’ Slide: “Not Acceptable”

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Little has gone right in recent weeks for the Cubs, who fell to 22-28 in their past 50 games with yet another defeat Wednesday. Chicago dropped its fourth straight game overall and third in a row against the Pirates, though the stage was set for a Cubs victory. Leading 5-4 entering the bottom of the ninth, the Cubs had newly signed closer Craig Kimbrel in line to slam the door. Instead, Kimbrel allowed two earned runs on a walk and a double en route to a 6-5 defeat. It was the second straight less-than-ideal showing for Kimbrel, who hasn’t turned in a clean performance in any of his three appearances since the Cubs activated him June 27.

Signing Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM contract was a bold strike by president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, an attempt to inject some much-needed life into the club. The move hasn’t done the trick to this point, though. Neither have multiple team meetings in recent days, as Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com detailed after its 18-5 loss in Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

With the Cubs having floundered since May, their front office is running out of patience as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. Epstein took to WSCR-AM 670 on Wednesday and stated there could be a “ton” of changes, even threatening to sell this month, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune were among those to cover. Epstein called the Cubs’ recent skid “not acceptable,” adding, “There have been too many words about it and not enough action.”

Epstein didn’t excuse manager Joe Maddon from blame, saying “all of us haven’t done the job.” On the field, Epstein pointed to “sloppy” base running and defense as reasons for the team’s slump. Epstein must have been apoplectic Wednesday night when a pair of defensive miscues with one out in the ninth helped sink the Cubs. Catcher Willson Contreras, who was playing right field, failed to come up with a bloop fly ball. Then, with Pirates catcher Elias Diaz on third, Cubs second baseman Addison Russell fielded a grounder and fired home instead of taking the easy out at first. Diaz beat the throw, tying the game, and the Pirates later triumphed on a Corey Dickerson sacrifice fly.

The Cubs sit a lukewarm 45-42 on the heels of their latest loss, yet they’re still in wild-card position and a mere game back of the NL Central-leading Brewers. The fact that the NL features far more middling teams than juggernauts has been a saving grace for the Cubs. However, that’s not going to cut it for Epstein, who has important choices to make in the coming weeks.

As things stand, the Cubs still seem far more likely to buy than sell, especially after having signed Kimbrel. The team could reasonably look to make upgrades throughout its roster. Even with Kimbrel in the fold, the Cubs’ relief corps has done little to inspire confidence aside from Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler and Kyle Ryan. The Cubs’ rotation took a significant hit when Cole Hamels went on the injured list with a left oblique strain last weekend, though there’s optimism he won’t miss a ton of time. Regardless, the club’s starting staff has been shaky beyond Hamels, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester. Fellow established starters Yu Darvish and Jose Quintana haven’t come close to meeting expectations this season.

Statistically, the Cubs’ position players rank sixth in the majors in fWAR, but that doesn’t mean the group is devoid of issues. Among regulars, Contreras, third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, shortstop Javier Baez, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, outfielder Jason Heyward and utilityman David Bote have all ranged from fine to excellent this year. On the other hand, when the Cubs haven’t used Bote at second, they’ve gotten little at the position from Russell, Daniel Descalso and Ben Zobrist. They promoted 26-year-old rookie Robel Garcia on Wednesday as a result. Center fielder Albert Almora has joined Descalso and Zobrist in struggling at the plate (especially against lefties). Adding to the disappointment, left fielder Kyle Schwarber hasn’t hit like the offensive cornerstone Epstein & Co. have regarded him as throughout his career.

Second base and the outfield may end up as areas the Cubs try to bolster this month, but Zobrist’s potential return complicates matters. Although Zobrist has been on the restricted list since May 7 as he deals with a divorce, Epstein indicated Wednesday he expects the 38-year-old infielder/outfielder to rejoin the team at some point. The Cubs have saved approximately $1MM per month during the absence of Zobrist, who’s on a $12.5MM salary in the last year of his contract. Zobrist’s disappearance helped the Cubs gather up the funds for Kimbrel, though they’ve largely shied away from spending since last offseason. Epstein has said the Cubs usually have “significant” money saved for in-season pickups, though, which implies a Zobrist comeback wouldn’t hinder their deadline plans from a financial standpoint. Even if it doesn’t, the Cubs will need vintage Zobrist to return – not the version who showed absolutely no power over 99 plate appearances before he took his leave.

Just as Epstein is optimistic Zobrist will put on a Cubs uniform again this season, he expects injured reliever Brandon Morrow to factor into their bullpen. Morrow was a highly valuable member of the Cubs’ relief corps in 2018, but elbow problems put an end to his season in mid-July. While the oft-injured 34-year-old has been throwing in Arizona lately as he tries to work back, per Gonzales, there’s still no clear timetable for a return.

The sliding Cubs play one more in Pittsburgh before a two-game road set against the White Sox over the weekend. After the All-Star break, they’ll face their four division foes – the Pirates, Reds, Brewers and Cardinals – as well as the playoff-contending Padres a combined 15 times in 18 games through Aug. 1. That stretch may wind up having a lot of say in how the frustrated Epstein handles the deadline.

Jesus Luzardo Suffers Lat Strain

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Prized Athletics left-hander Jesus Luzardo had been nearing his major league debut, but that’s now off the table for the time being. Luzardo, out all season with a left rotator cuff strain, suffered a Grade 2 left lat strain in a Triple-A rehab start Tuesday, the team announced. There’s no timetable for Luzardo’s return from his newest injury.

This is a brutal development for the playoff-contending Athletics, who were banking on Luzardo helping to stabilize their rotation down the stretch. Luzardo, widely regarded as an elite pitching prospect, had been expected to slot into their staff after the All-Star break. The 21-year-old’s forthcoming debut would have been all the more timely with the A’s having lost their ace, Frankie Montas, to an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs on June 21.

Oakland will now have to continue waiting for Luzardo, whose ongoing absence could impact its trade deadline plans. Despite Montas’ loss, general manager David Forst suggested last week the A’s would focus more on upgrading their bullpen than their rotation around the deadline. The team may now have to reverse course in the wake of Luzardo’s setback, though. The A’s rode an underwhelming rotation to a playoff berth in 2018, but expecting it to happen again with this year’s mediocre bunch might be unrealistic.

Todd Frazier Discusses Potential Trade

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As a soon-to-be free agent on a team that appears to be going nowhere in the standings, third baseman Todd Frazier looks like a potential trade chip for the Mets. With the July 31 deadline exactly four weeks out, Frazier addressed his future Wednesday, telling Mike Puma of the New York Post: “If I get traded, OK. If not, I am glad to be here as a Met. I am doing something, so it’s always good to be wanted.”

Trades aren’t anything new to Frazier, who has been part of two deals since he started his career in Cincinnati in 2011. The Reds sent Frazier to the White Sox in December 2015, and just under two calendar years later, the Pale Hose dealt him to the Yankees around the 2017 trade deadline. Frazier then joined the Yankees’ crosstown rivals the ensuing offseason on his current deal – a two-year, $17MM guarantee which Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen negotiated on his behalf.

Van Wagenen was Frazier’s agent when the veteran changed New York franchises, but now BVW is in the unique position of potentially trading away a player whose payday he secured. Frazier’s still owed about $4.31MM on his deal, a pact which has been a mixed bag for the Mets. While Frazier endured a down, injury-shortened initial campaign with the Mets, the 33-year-old has rebounded in 2019 to slash .256/.335/.450 (111 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 236 plate appearances. Frazier has aided his cause with career-best strikeout, swinging-strike and contact rates.

Everyday third basemen could be difficult to find around the deadline, which may work in the Mets’ favor if they try to trade Frazier. Considering their upward trajectory, the Nationals don’t seem likely to deal Anthony Rendon. Otherwise, aside from Frazier, there’s a wide selection of trade possibilities who profile more as part-time players or utility infielders than full-time third basemen. Pablo Sandoval, Derek Dietrich, Jonathan Villar, Neil Walker, Eric Sogard and Tim Beckham are among them.

Garrett Richards Could Return In September

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Although the Padres sit below .500 (42-43) as the season nears the All-Star break, they’re still just two games back of a wild-card spot in the National League. If the team hangs in the race until late in the year, it could get back a key reinforcement in right-hander Garrett Richards. The Padres are hopeful the recovering Tommy John surgery patient will join their staff in September, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

Richards went under the knife last July, effectively ending his Angels tenure, but that didn’t stop the Padres from making a strong commitment to him in free agency. The club guaranteed $15.5MM over two years to Richards, thus making him their second-biggest offseason signing behind Manny Machado.

The 31-year-old Richards earned his deal as a result of a promising stint with the Angels, a 744 2/3-inning stretch from 2011-18 in which he logged a 3.54 ERA/3.62 FIP with 7.8 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 52.5 percent groundball rate. However, injuries – not just Richards’ damaged ulnar collateral ligament – undermined him toward the end of his Angels tenure. Richards concluded his run in Los Angeles with 76 1/3 or fewer innings in each of his final three seasons with the franchise.

When Richards has been healthy enough to take the mound, he has produced like someone capable of slotting in near the top of a team’s rotation. That explains why the starter-needy Padres took a gamble on him for a somewhat expensive amount of money. The team’s current rotation could certainly use a recovered Richards, having managed only mediocre numbers overall. Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer have been good or better, as has Logan Allen across a mere three appearances. But no one from a trio consisting of Matt Strahm, Nick Margevicius and Cal Quantrill has offered a solution over a combined 33 starts.

As they continue to wait for Richards, the Padres will welcome righty Dinelson Lamet back to their rotation Thursday. The 26-year-old Lamet, like Richards, has recently seen Tommy John surgery stall his career. Lamet impressed as a rookie in 2017 before hitting the operating table in April 2018.

Trade Candidate: Tanner Roark

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Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler will garner most of the headlines when it comes to rental starters who could move by the July 31 trade deadline. But for teams that aren’t able to win the bidding for either of them, Reds righty Tanner Roark is seemingly shaping up as a decent consolation price. That is, if the Reds – just 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot despite being five games under .500 – decide to sell Roark. Even if they keep the 32-year-old through the season, he’ll land on several teams’ radars in free agency during the winter.

Roark has been a mostly solid starting option since his career began in 2013 with the Nationals. He made 141 starts in D.C. from 2013-18, during which he posted a 3.61 ERA/3.94 FIP with 7.06 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate. Although Roark was a quality complement to front-end starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in recent years, the Nationals moved on from him last offseason in favor of new acquisitions Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.

The Reds, seeking to revamp their rotation and make a playoff push in 2019, sent reliever Tanner Rainey to the Nationals for a year of control over Roark. Since then, Roark has held up his end of the bargain for a Cincinnati team whose rotation has indeed taken enormous steps ahead this season. Roark has pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.86 FIP in 92 1/3 innings and 17 starts, putting him on the cusp of his fourth consecutive season with at least 2.0 fWAR.

An increase in strikeouts has played an important role in Roark’s above-average run prevention in 2019. While he has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, Roark has impressively fanned just under a batter per inning this year. At the same time, he has walked a bit fewer than three per nine, giving him a 3.07 K/BB ratio which sits well above the league mean of 2.65.

Even though Roark has transferred to a home park which is more conducive to HRs, he hasn’t felt the sting thus far. Roark’s groundball percentage has decreased 5 percent since last year and sits at a paltry 35.7 percent, yet his home run-to-fly ball rate has actually dropped a little since 2018 (from 11.7 to 10.8). That has enabled Roark to manage decent numbers at home and on the road. It helps that Roark has generated more infield fly balls, aka automatic outs. At 12.9 percent, he ranks 14th among starters in that category.

Roark has also experienced somewhat of an uptick in velocity since last year. He’s still not going to blow anyone away with his average fastball (92.3 mph), slider (86.2), changeup (84.3) and curveball (76.1), but each pitch has risen around 1 mph compared to 2018. Roark has also mixed those pitches differently than he did a year ago. His sinker’s still his primary offering, but usage of it has plummeted 10 percent, per Statcast, which indicates Roark has turned to his slider about 10 percent more and his fastball at a 5 percent greater rate. According to FanGraphs’ linear weights, Roark’s fastball has been one of the best among starters in 2019.

Now for the bad news: FanGraphs shows the rest of Roark’s offerings all rate in the negatives this year. Although Roark has stifled righty batters, he flat-out hasn’t had an answer for lefties, who have slashed .290/.388/.531 against him. In essence, Roark has turned the typical lefty into Rafael Devers in 2019, in part because he’s yielding more damaging contact than he did in prior years. Roark’s hard-hit rate against is up more than 11 percent relative to his career, while he has surrendered soft contact about 4 percent less, according to FanGraphs.  Statcast doesn’t provide any hope in that regard either, noting Roark ranks in the league’s 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He’s also far below average in terms of expected batting average (28th percentile), exit velocity (29th), expected weighted on-base average (34th) and expected slugging percentage (39th).

Teams with interest in Roark are no doubt aware of his blemishes, though those issues shouldn’t deter the Reds from finding a taker for him if they try to before the deadline. Roark’s near the top of the league when it comes to curve spin rate (80th percentile), so he could land with an organization which encourages him to utilize that pitch more. Regardless, for clubs that aren’t in position to win bidding wars for more hyped trade candidates such as Bumgarner, Wheeler, Matthew Boyd and Marcus Stroman, among others, Roark will hold appeal. Whether he finishes the season in Cincinnati or elsewhere, Roark will continue attempting to make a case for a raise over his $10MM salary as he prepares for an upcoming trip to free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Carlos Gomez Elects Free Agency

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Veteran outfielder Carlos Gomez elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment from the Mets, per the International League transactions log. He was designated for assignment over the weekend.

Gomez, 33, ripped a trio of home runs in his brief reunion with the Mets — including a go-ahead three-run shot not long after being selected from the minor leagues. However, his overall body of work in his return to Queens, where he made his MLB debut as a 21-year-old back in 2007, proved underwhelming. In 99 trips to the plate, the two-time All-Star and former Gold Glover hit just .198/.278/.337 with 30 strikeouts.

Gomez had a solid season with the Rangers back in 2017, but his brief All-Star peak from 2013-14 is now a distant memory. Gomez batted a combined .284/.347/.491 with 47 homers, 74 steals and strong defense in that stretch, racking up 12.3 WAR along the way. Since that brilliant pair of seasons, he’s hit a combined .236/.311/.395 in 1863 plate appearances. He’s not the elite runner he once was, but Gomez still possesses above-average speed (79th percentile in average sprint speed, per Statcast) and is experienced at all three outfield spots, making him a reasonable minor league pickup for a team in need of outfield depth.

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