Nationals Agree To Re-Sign Stephen Strasburg
4:02pm: The Nationals have announced the agreement. The deal also comes with incentives, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Strasburg will earn $500K for an MVP win, $250K for a second-place finish, $350K for third, $100K for fourth and $75K for fifth. His Cy Young incentives are the same. He’d take home $250K for another World Series MVP. An All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger are each worth another $100K apiece.
1:48pm: The defending World Series champs and the game’s biggest agent have kicked off the Winter Meetings with a bang. The Nationals have reached agreement on a new contract with star righty Stephen Strasburg, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. It’s a stunning seven-year deal that guarantees the Scott Boras client a whopping $245MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The sides will announce the deal this afternoon.
If there was ever any doubt as to the stability of the relationship between the Nats and the player once hailed as a franchise savior, this contract resolves it. There’s a full no-trade clause, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. The contract does not come with options or opt-outs, per Tim Brown of Yahoo (via Twitter). About $80MM of the money is deferred, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds on Twitter, but they will include interest, per Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal (Twitter link).
We had come to expect a record-setting pitching deal this winter, but not from Strasburg. Top-of-the-market ace Gerrit Cole had long figured to top David Price for the biggest-ever rotation contract. He’s certain still to do so … quite likely by far, far more than had been anticipated. Strasburg has now blown the prior $217MM record out of the water. It also tops the average-annual value record held previously by Zack Greinke.
Way back when the 2019 season began, it was highly questionable whether Strasburg would even opt out of the four years and $100MM left on his prior extension with the Nationals. The former top overall draft choice ended up turning in a huge regular season followed by an iconic postseason, leading the Nats to a long-awaited World Series berth. It was everything that he and the organization dreamed of when he was selected first overall back in 2009 and then made a stirring debut in 2010. That he navigated a devastating Tommy John surgery, shutdown controversy, and various travails thereafter only made it all the more meaningful.
It has been a rollercoaster for the Nats faithful, which watched Bryce Harper head to the rival Phillies last winter. Strasburg is back … but what about Anthony Rendon, who was the third consecutive first-round pick that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo knocked out of the park. Ownership has said it doesn’t believe it can sign both Strasburg and Rendon. While that claim is worth questioning, it’s also quite a bit more understandable now that we know just how much the club had to pay to retain the former.
We’ll have to wait and see whether the Nats continue to pursue Rendon. But there’s an obvious impact on his market, which includes quite a few other major bidders. It’s also not difficult to see the connections between Strasburg’s signing and the still-developing rotation market. Pressure soared on the pitching market and the NL East arms race when the Phillies inked Zack Wheeler to a $118MM pact, snatching him from the Mets. With multiple teams pushing for Cole, and some viewing Strasburg as a major fallback target, the Nats acted decisively to bring back their ace. Having now secured larger-than-expected early strikes for Strasburg and Mike Moustakas, Boras can turn to ratcheting up the bidding on Cole, Rendon, and his other major open-market clients.
It’s quite something to see a contract of this magnitude for a 31-year-old pitcher just one winter removed from a spate of high-end hurlers inked extensions. Two aces in a similar age bracket — Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale — received much more modest guarantees. Those pitchers were obviously protecting against the risks of pitching in the majors, but they were also surely cognizant of a frigid free agent market. Now, it seems the thaw may be on … though how far it will extend remains to be seen.
To be sure, Strasburg not only ensconced himself in Nats lore but reaffirmed his top-shelf status in 2019. He topped two hundred innings for the second time in his career and worked to a 3.32 ERA that may actually have belied the true quality of his effort. With 10.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a 51.1% groundball rate, he showed all the skills that help a pitcher generate outs. Strasburg graded at a 3.25 FIP, 3.17 xFIP, and 3.49 SIERA in 2019. His 13.4% swinging-strike rate was a career high, though he’s now averaging about two ticks less on his fastball than he did for much of his career. And he showed yet more in a blistering run through the postseason, when he allowed just eight earned runs with a ridiculous 47:4 K/BB ratio over 36 1/3 innings, topping it all off with a World Series MVP.
The risks are equally obvious. Though he has avoided another devastating arm injury, Strasburg averaged 145 innings annually between 2015-18 and has had arm scares throughout that time. (He also carried a 3.27 ERA in that span.) He’s now under contract through his age-37 campaign.
While the Nats are obviously pleased with the output they’ve received to this point, having now twice inked Strasburg to massive contracts, they’re still banking on quite a bit more in the second half of his career. The club has now expanded its already huge commitment to its trio of high-end starters, with Strasburg now topping the big salaries promised to Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Washington’s 2020 prospects will be determined in no small part by the way in which these hurlers bounce back from a Herculean postseason effort.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rangers Hire Bobby Wilson As Double-A Manager
Former catcher Bobby Wilson signed on with the Rangers organization to manage their Double-A affiliate, per a club announcement. That also indicates that his playing career is coming to a close.
Wilson, 36, appeared in parts of ten MLB seasons but just passed the threshold of one thousand career plate appearances. He was only a .203/.258/.304 hitter in the majors … which only serves to amplify the degree to which he was regarded for his work as a backstop.
It was once an annual tradition around these parts to cover the many minor moves involving Wilson. Those days are over. But he’s likely to return to MLBTR’s pages before long as a managerial or coaching candidate in the majors. Wilson has long been posited as a future skipper and will launch right into that career path now that his playing career is over.
Upon breaking into the bigs in 2008 with the Angels, Wilson kicked off a five-year run in which he appeared consistently with one team. He went on a journeyman run thereafter, spending time in the majors with the Rangers, Rays, Tigers, Twins, and Diamondbacks in addition to minor-league stints with the Yankees and Dodgers.
Reds Outright R.J. Alaniz
The Reds have outrighted right-hander R.J. Alaniz after he cleared waivers, per a club announcement. That leaves a pair of 40-man openings to work with during this week’s Winter Meetings,
Alaniz, claimed off waivers in May, made his first dozen MLB appearances in 2019. He gave up more earned runs (16) than innings pitched (15 2/3), so obviously has some proving left to do before he’s given his next opportunity.
Unsurprisingly, Alaniz showed better during his time in the upper minors. He maintained 12.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 over 40 1/3 Triple-A frames during the ’19 campaign. Alaniz carries a 3.79 ERA over 128 1/3 lifetime innings at the highest level of the minors.
Josh Donaldson Increasingly Seen As Candidate For 4-Year Deal
Veteran third bagger Josh Donaldson is an unsurprisingly popular target through this stage of the market development. The interest has been so robust that he may even secure a four-year guarantee. We’ve seen the suggestion bandied about in recent days, but MLB.com’s Mark Bowman now reports (via Twitter) that it’s becoming a “growing expectation” that Donaldson will get the fourth campaign.
That length of contract wouldn’t be surprising at all for a player of Donaldson’s stature … were it not for the fact that he just turned 34 yesterday. Ben Zobrist did secure a four-year term a few years back, but more recent free agents have faced greater headwinds in securing promised cash into their late-thirties. And Donaldson seems all but certain to command a much loftier annual salary than Zobrist did.
As it turns out, though, interest in Donaldson is quite robust. While numerous clubs are still grappling over top third baseman Anthony Rendon, only one will get him. Donaldson is far senior to Rendon but was even better at his peak. While the former is no longer a perennial MVP candidate, he easily outperformed the one-year, $23MM bounceback contract he took last season with the Braves and seems a good bet to deliver big production for years to come.
Donaldson hit a ton in his 659 plate appearances in 2019, turning in a .259/.379/.521 slash with 37 homers. He did all that while providing value in the field, with Defensive Runs Saved taking a particularly bullish view. As important was the fact that he played that extensively at all. Donaldson had appeared in 165 contests over the prior two seasons but went the distance in 2019.
Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Donaldson would secure a $75MM guarantee over three seasons. If he’s able to get that fourth guaranteed year, it may be at a somewhat lesser single-season rate of pay. But it’s also now conceivable he could threaten nine figures in his next contract.
Waiver Claims: Kinley, Rodriguez, Diplan
A spate of waiver claims have hit the wire this afternoon …
- The Rockies claimed righty Tyler Kinley from the Marlins. Righty Joe Harvey was designated for assignment to create 40-man space in Colorado. Kinley, a 28-year-old righty, carried an ugly 46:36 K/BB ratio in 49 1/3 MLB frames last year. But he also managed a 3.65 ERA on the year, generated a 12.9% swinging strike rate, and carried a mid-nineties heater. He was a Rule 5 pick by the Twins in 2018, so it’s clear that multiple clubs are intrigued by his raw potential. He has a pair of minor league options remaining, so he’s a sensible and affordable depth option for the Rockies, who opened the season by proclaiming a lack of payroll flexibility.
- The Brewers announced that they claimed infielder Ronny Rodriguez from the Tigers. The 27-year-old has struggled in two seasons with the Detroit organization, showing some power and defensive versatility but demonstrating some of the worst on-base skills in the league. Through an even 500 plate appearances at the MLB level, Rodriguez is a .221/.254/.396 batting line. He still has multiple option years remaining, so he can be shuttled between Triple-A and the Majors in both 2020 and 2021.
- Also departing the Tigers is right-hander Marcos Diplan, who was claimed by the Orioles, per a team announcement. He appeared in 38 games between the Double-A affiliates for the Twins and Brewers, totaling 68 2/3 innings of 4.85 ERA ball with 9.6 K/9 against 5.8 BB/9. Diplan was ranked among the Brewers’ 10 to 20 best prospects back in 2017 but has seen his stock dip in recent seasons as he’s begun to bounce around the waiver circuit. Notably, Diplan was has now been claimed by the Tigers and Orioles this winter — the teams with the No. 1 and No. 2 waiver priorities. He has a minor league option remaining.
Brewers Re-Sign Alex Claudio
The Brewers announced today that they have re-signed lefty Alex Claudio to a one-year deal. The MDR Sports Management client was non-tendered by Milwaukee last week but will return on a lesser deal than the projected $2.2MM he’d been projected to earn. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that he’ll earn $1.75MM on the new arrangement. Claudio will remain arbitration-eligible next winter as well.
Claudio, 28 next month, was acquired from the Rangers last winter in a trade that sent a Competitive Balance draft selection from Milwaukee to Texas. He was used largely as a specialist, as evidenced by totaling 62 innings despite appearing in a league-leading 83 games. Claudio notched a 4.06 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a strong 57.9 percent ground-ball rate last season, holding opposing left-handed hitters to a .218/.301/.378 line through 137 plate appearances.
Claudio has consistently overwhelmed opposing lefties in his career, limiting them to a miserable .201/.245/.306 slash, but right-handers have typically had little trouble figuring him out. That was the case again in 2019 (.274/.357/.469), and it’ll be perhaps even more problematic for him next year when the league is expected to adopt a new rule that requires a pitcher to either face a minimum of three batters or finish an inning. Milwaukee was able to allow Claudio to face more left-handed batters than right-handed batters this past year (137 to 130), but that’s unlikely to be the case in 2020.
Adam Jones Weighing Move To Japan
Veteran outfielder Adam Jones may be headed for a late-career stint in Japan. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, via Twitter, Jones is in talks with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Orix Buffaloes on a contract.
Notably, the concept under consideration is a multi-year arrangement. That’s a rarity for players contemplating a westward crossing of the Pacific, though NPB organizations have certainly agreed to multi-year pacts to retain players.
Jones, 34, would become one of the biggest MLB stars to play in Japan if he decides to make the move. Kevin Youkilis was another major player who headed to the NPB to cap off a memorable career, though his experience did not go as hoped and he played in only 21 games there before retiring.
It’s tough to imagine that Jones is receiving truly satisfactory interest stateside. The longtime Orioles star ended up landing a $3MM deal with the Diamondbacks last year after languishing on the market. he appeared in 137 games and received 528 plate appearances in Arizona, but struggled to a .260/.313/.414 batting line.
Nationals “Making Progress” In Talks With Stephen Strasburg
The Nationals are “making progress” in their contract negotiations with star righty Stephen Strasburg, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). We’ve heard persistent indication that the team anticipates bringing back the veteran righty, who opted out of his contract at the outset of the offseason.
More to come …
Indians Disinclined To Deal Francisco Lindor
The Indians “prefer not to deal” star shortstop Francisco Lindor this winter, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Though his name his been through several rounds of the rumor mill, it seems the 26-year-old will remain in Cleveland — at least for the time being.
This report matches up with other recent chatter surrounding Lindor, who was said to be carrying a massive price tag on the market. Understandably, the Indians aren’t willing to make a deal that delivers anything less than a bonanza back.
It has been fair to wonder whether the Indians would put real effort into structuring a deal involving Lindor. The club wasn’t able to gain traction in prior extension talks. He’s now projected to earn $16.7MM entering his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. That’s a pittance for his production, but with Lindor closing in on the open market it seemed the small-market organization was positioned to listen to offers.
There could still be chatter surrounding Lindor (as well as some other huge names) over the coming days, weeks, and months. But if the Indians are indeed disinclined to make a deal, it’ll be incumbent upon other organizations to come forward with offers strong enough to spur interest on the part of an otherwise unwilling Cleveland organization.
Of course, even if Lindor stays put for the rest of this winter, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll make it to free agency in an Indians uniform. Future circumstances will dictate the course of events, but Lindor would surely feature as a trade candidate next winter — if not sooner.
Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler
DECEMBER 9: This deal is now official, per a team announcement.
DECEMBER 4: The Phillies have made the biggest free-agent splash of the offseason to date, as they reached a reported five-year, $118MM agreement with free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler on Wednesday afternoon. The contract is still pending a physical. Wheeler is represented by Jet Sports Management.
Wheeler, 29, has been arguably the most in-demand pitcher on the free agent market early in the offseason. While he’s regarded as the third-best arm on the market behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, that duo’s sky-high earning power priced out a number of pitching-needy teams from the outset. Wheeler, however, has been viewed as a more affordable pitcher with high-end stuff — one whom many believe can still take another step forward in the years to come.
Of course, that’s not to say that the current iteration of Wheeler isn’t a quality arm; he very much is. Over his past 55 Major League starts, the right-hander has worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. He’s distanced himself from Tommy John surgery and the ensuing complications that wiped out nearly two full seasons of his career, combining to make 60 starts dating back to Opening Day 2018.
Wheeler was also the second-hardest-throwing starter on the open market, with his career-best 96.7 mph average heater trailing only the aforementioned Cole. Beyond that, he possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast). Given that he’s played in front of one the worst defenses in the game over the past couple of seasons, there’s a belief that he could excel with a change of scenery, although it’s of course worth noting that the Philadelphia defense has had its own share of struggles over that same time.
Rotation help has been the clear top priority for the Phillies this winter, as their collective group of starters was a decidedly subpar group in 2019. Philadelphia entered the season with Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta anchoring the starting staff. And, after a 2018-19 offseason that focused largely on augmenting the lineup, the Phils leaned heavily on younger, inexperienced arms like Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez to round out the rotation.
Of that trio, only Eflin yielded any real dividends, however. The 25-year-old proved a serviceable fourth starter with a 4.13 ERA over 28 starts (32 total appearances), while Pivetta and Velasquez combined for an ERA well north of 5.00. Meanwhile, Arrieta struggled through his worst performance since his breakout and ultimately underwent season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow. Even Nola, who finished third in 2018 NL Cy Young voting, took a notable step back in 2019. The end result was a Phillies starting staff that finished 17th in ERA (4.64), 24th in FIP (4.91) and 16th in xFIP (4.59) last year.
Wheeler will now slot into the Phillies’ rotation alongside Nola, Eflin and Arrieta — with the hope being that the removal of the bone spur through which Arrieta pitched in 2019 will help to bring about a rejuvenation of sorts. There’s still room for another rotation addition, to be sure, and there’s also room on the payroll to make that a reality. Before agreeing to terms with Wheeler, the Phils’ payroll checked in a bit shy of $150MM (including projected arbitration salaries). They’ll see Arrieta, David Robertson and the small portion of the Jay Bruce contract they’re paying all come off the books next season, lending some long-term flexibility even in spite of substantial commitments to Wheeler, Bryce Harper and others.
Earlier this offseason, Philadelphia general manager Matt Klentak voiced a preference to eventually move away from signing players who’ve rejected qualifying offers, but it appears that was far from a mandate, as the Phillies will now do so for a third consecutive winter. Signing Wheeler will cost Philadelphia its second-round pick and $500K of international bonus allotments. The Mets, meanwhile, will pick up a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B — likely in the 75 to 80 range of next year’s draft. They’ll also, of course, now be on the lookout for another starting pitcher — although they were never viewed as a serious player to re-sign Wheeler.
Geography played a pivotal role in Wheeler’s decision to sign with Philadelphia, it seems. The Athletic’s Marc Carig, who first broke the news, noted in his original report that Wheeler’s fiancee is from nearby New Jersey, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the White Sox’ bid on Wheeler was actually higher than that of the Phillies. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North in Minneapolis tweets that the Twins, too, made a five-year offer to Wheeler and that money wasn’t the ultimate factor in rejecting that bid. Presumably, an offer that blew Philadelphia’s out of the water could’ve swayed Wheeler to stray from the East Coast, but it seems that family considerations won the day when final bids wound up comparable.
In the end, Wheeler drew varying levels of interest from the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Astros, Rangers, Yankees and Blue Jays before his agreement with the Phils. That level of interest was largely foreseeable, and the fit with the Phillies has long been a particularly sensible one, as was predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list at the start of the offseason. The choice of destination proved to be spot on, but the considerable interest in Wheeler ultimately pushed his guarantee north of the five years and $100MM estimate put forth at that time.
Marc Carig of The Athletic broke news of the agreement (via Twitter). Bob Nightengale of USA Today, ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia all reported financial details on the contract (all links to Twitter).