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MLB Draft Rumors: Mize, Bart, Rankings, Mock Drafts

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The annual MLB amateur draft is less than an hour away, and the Tigers will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick at 7:00pm ET tonight. Those interested in doing some research on tonight’s draft will want to check out Baseball America’s Top 500, MLB.com’s Top 200, Law’s 2018 big board and Fangraphs’ sortable draft board, each of which contain scouting info and insight into the prospects in this year’s class. (The MLB.com and Fangraphs list are free of charge, while BA and ESPN require a subscription.)

Here are some rumblings leading up to tonight’s event:

  • The latest mock drafts (updated as of 5:48pm CST) from MLB.com, ESPN, Fangraphs and Baseball America all have Auburn right-hander Casey Mize going to the Tigers with the No. 1 pick tonight. While there have been occasional rumblings about other players at the top of the draft, ESPN’s Keith Law calls Mize the “clear 1-1 talent” in the 2018 draft. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, meanwhile, tweets that with just a couple of hours until the draft begins, Mize remains favored to go first overall. For those interested in a more in-depth look at the Auburn ace, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com recently interviewed both Mize and his college coaches about the right-hander’s rise from an undrafted high school talent to the presumptive top overall pick in the 2018 draft.
  • In their earlier mock draft at Fangraphs, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel lay out a scenario in which Mize could fall to the Phillies with the third pick, though they caution that it’s not considered likely. However, the two hear that Mize’s camp is “driving a hard bargain” and that the Giants aren’t interested in going over slot for him at No. 2. The Phillies, Longenhagen and McDaniel posit, could put pressure on the Tigers by communicating to Mize’s camp that they’re willing to offer a considerably over-slot deal. In that scenario, the Tigers could take Bart first overall, with high school right-hander Cole Winn going second to the Giants and Mize going third to the Phillies. If the Tigers do take Mize, which is what McDaniel and Longenhagen project, then the Giants would very likely select Bart with the second overall pick.
  • There’s always loads of potential intrigue as the draft unfolds, of course. Another pick to keep an eye on is number six, which is held by the Mets. ESPN.com’s Keith Law posits on Twitter that the New York organization may work out a deal with infielder Noah Naylor that would keep some of the team’s first-round bonus allocation to apply toward other selections. Of course, Law’s latest mock predicts outfielder Jaarred Kelenic will be the choice. Mike Puma of the New York Post agrees (via Twitter) that the club is likely to use its selection on a position player, though he suggests Jonathan India as a likely target.

Anthony Banda To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rays lefty Anthony Banda will undergo Tommy John surgery, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Given the typical year-plus recovery timeline for this procedure, Banda will likely miss the remainder of the current season and most or all of 2019.

Banda came to Tampa Bay over the offseason as a key part of the three-team swap that sent outfielder Steven Souza to the Diamondbacks. He had turned into a notable prospect in the Arizona system, which he joined along with Mitch Haniger following the 2014 deadline deal that sent Gerardo Parra to the Brewers.

With the news, Banda will join another recent top pitching prospect acquired in a significant, relatively recent trade — Jose De Leon — on the road to a return from a TJ procedure. De Leon will surely hope to be ready at some point relatively early in the 2019 season. It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Banda will be able to join him late next year, though of course the Rays will surely exercise caution.

In weighing a timeline, it’s also worth bearing in mind that Banda is still not established at the game’s highest level. The 24-year-old southpaw struggled in his first taste of the majors last year, but gave the Rays 14 2/3 useful innings this year, over which he allowed six earned runs while compiling ten hits against three walks. Banda also showed a health (95.4 mph average) heater, up from his numbers in 2017.

In truth, Banda’s limited MLB showing isn’t yet sufficient to draw any conclusions about his future. He has pitched well this year at Triple-A, though, after putting up middling numbers there in 2017. Through 42 frames over eight starts, he owns a 3.64 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and a 38.4% groundball rate.

The move puts another dent in Tampa Bay’s rotation depth, both for the present season and beyond. More immediately, the organization has at least finally welcomed Nathan Eovaldi back. And Yonny Chirinos is also off of the DL, though he has been optioned to Triple-A despite a solid start in his season in the majors.

Yankees Option Tommy Kahnle

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The Yankees announced after Game 1 of today’s doubleheader that they’ve activated right-hander Adam Warren from the 10-day disabled list and optioned right-hander Tommy Kahnle to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

The decision to send Kahnle to the minors would’ve seemed unfathomable following the 2017 season. The flamethrowing righty was a huge part of a July blockbuster with the White Sox and pitched to a combined 2.59 ERA with 13.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 0.57 HR/9 with a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate in 62 2/3 innings. Kahnle trailed only Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and teammate Chad Green in terms of K-BB%, and his 16.7 percent swinging-strike rate was the eighth-best of any qualified reliever in baseball.

So far, 2018 has been an entirely different story for the 28-year-old Kahnle, however. His average fastball velocity plummeted from 97.9 mph to 95 mph, and while that’s still plenty of heat, the near-three mile per hour drop is concerning all the same. Kahnle spent more than a month on the disabled list due to tendinitis in his right shoulder, and he’s allowed seven runs on six hits and a troubling 10 walks in nine innings when healthy. In addition to those 10 free passes, Kahlne has also snapped off a pair of wild pitches and seen his first-pitch strike rate drop from 62.1 percent in 2017 to 52.3 percent in 2018.

While it seems likely to be a short-term stay, the potential for service time ramifications does exist. Kahnle entered the season with just three years, 15 days of big league service time, meaning he’d need 157 days of service in 2018 to reach four years of service time and stay on track to become a free agent following the 2020 season. If he spends more than a month in the minors, that timeline would change, though it seems reasonable to expect the Yankees are hoping for a minimal stay in Scranton to get Kahnle’s command back on track.

NL West Notes: Padres, Hughes, Stripling, Duplantier

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The Padres’ acquisition of Phil Hughes was clearly more about acquiring the Twins’ competitive balance draft pick than the pitcher himself, and GM A.J. Preller and scouting director Mark Conner spoke to MLB.com’s A.J Cassavell about the swap. Preller told Cassavell that he’s been calling every team that received pick in the competitive balance lottery on a near-weekly basis in an attempt to acquire an additional selection — something that’s long been a priority but was magnified in 2018 after San Diego surrendered a pick to sign Eric Hosmer. “The game now is about making your money work for you,” said Preller. “…You have to figure out what’s the best bang for your buck. Having the extra pick gives you more options.”

The move was met by excitement from Conner and his scouts, who’ll now not only have an extra pick (No. 74 overall) but an additional $812,200 in their draft pool. The Padres, of course, spent considerably more than that to obtain the pick, relieving the Twins of just over $7.6MM of Hughes’ salary. While it seems a shrewd (albeit expensive) pickup of a resource with limited availability, not every organization agrees; one exec from another club told FanRag’s Jon Heyman last week that the Padres were “insane” for taking on that much of the remaining contract to obtain the pick.

More from the division…

  • Ross Stripling, who looks to be in the midst of a breakout season with the Dodgers, spoke to Pedro Moura of The Athletic about the role that data and analytics have played in his emergence (subscription required). The 28-year-old righty has turned in a ridiculous 1.68 ERA with 11.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate in 48 1/3 innings for the Dodgers so far in 2018. Stripling’s success is derived in large part from advance scouting of opposing lineups and taking deep dives into hitters’ strengths and weaknesses. Specifically, Stripling discusses the importance of knowing the quality of contact a hitter will make against pitch types in various portions of the strike zone. “I don’t care about average,” said Stripling. “I just want to know where he pulls the ball at 100 mph. I’m a believer in limiting slug, which is basically limiting exit velocity.” Moura’s column takes a long look not only at Stripling’s sudden success, but also his amateur days, his childhood fascination with baseball statistics and his path to professional baseball.
  • The D-backs have had rotten luck with injuries at the big league level in 2018, and it’s apparently extending to the farm system as well. Zach Buchanan of The Athletic tweets that the team’s top prospect, right-hander Jon Duplantier, is dealing with biceps tendinitis and has been shut down from throwing for at least a week. The 23-year-old Duplantier has dominated in Double-A this year, working to a 2.52 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 and a 59.8 percent ground-ball rate in 35 2/3 innings. He’s currently ranked as the game’s No. 50 overall prospect over at Baseball America and No. 65 overall at MLB.com.

Dodgers To Select Caleb Ferguson

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The Dodgers are set to select the contract of left-handed pitching prospect Caleb Ferguson, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. The news first got out, it seems, when Ferguson’s mother announced it on Facebook (though Hoornsta notes that he’s confirmed the promotion himself as well). The Dodgers have a full 40-man roster, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move to add him to the roster.

[Related: Los Angeles Dodgers depth chart]

Ferguson, 21, entered the season ranked 15th among Dodgers farmhands, per Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com. Tommy John surgery in high school caused him to drop to the 38th round of the draft, but he’s steadily risen through the Dodgers’ minor league ranks as he’s mended and rebuilt his arm strength. After dominating Double-A opponents with a 1.38 ERA, 40 strikeouts and 10 walks through 39 innings, Ferguson was moved up to Triple-A for a brief eight-inning stint before now ascending to the game’s highest level.

The addition of Ferguson will give Los Angeles an option to start on Wednesday this week. The Dodgers currently have an entire rotation’s worth of talent on the DL (and a very good rotation, at that) with Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Julio Urias all on the shelf at at the moment. As such, if Ferguson is indeed called upon to start, he’ll step into the rotation alongside Alex Wood, Ross Stripling and fellow rookies Walker Buehler and Dennis Santana. It could be a simple spot start regardless, as the Dodgers have a pair of off-days next week that’ll allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation.

Orioles Claim D.J. Snelten

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The Orioles announced that they’ve claimed left-hander D.J. Snelten off waivers from the Giants. Baltimore had an open spot on its 40-man roster, so no corresponding move was necessary. Snelten has been assigned to Triple-A Norfolk for the time being.

[Related: Updated Baltimore Orioles depth chart]

The 26-year-old Snelten is listed at a towering 6’7″ and 245 pounds, and he entered the season ranked as the Giants’ ninth-best prospect, per Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. While he doesn’t throw especially hard, Snelten possesses an above-average changeup and has performed reasonably well in the upper minors. He allowed five earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his MLB debut this season but comes to the Orioles organization with a career 2.84 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 69 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. Longenhagen’s scouting report notes that Snelten’s size and unorthodox delivery help him succeed against same-handed batters, while the changeup gives him a viable weapon to use against right-handed opponents.

Snelten was only just selected to the 40-man roster this past offseason, so he has two option years remaining beyond the 2018 campaign. He can be shuttled between Norfolk and Baltimore to lend some depth to the Orioles’ staff, and with several trade candidates in the Baltimore ’pen, it’s possible that a spot will eventually open for Snelten to receive a lengthier look.

Tigers Re-Sign Gerson Moreno, Outright Pete Kozma

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The Tigers announced today that they’ve re-signed right-hander Gerson Moreno to a minor league contract and sent Pete Kozma outright to Triple-A after he cleared waivers.

Detroit released the 22-year-old Moreno last week to open a spot on the 40-man roster, and it was later revealed by GM Al Avila that the promising young pitching prospect required Tommy John surgery. By releasing him, Detroit was able to create a needed 40-man vacancy but keep him in the organization. Both MLB.com and Fangraphs ranked him among the organization’s top 30 prospects entering the season, with Eric Longenhagen calling him a potential setup man whose fastball can touch 99 mph. Moreno has averaged better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings over the past two seasons, but he struggled to a 5.29 ERA and averaged 7.4 walks per nine innings in 2018 before undergoing season-ending surgery.

Kozma, meanwhile, was designated for assignment last week when the Tigers activated Miguel Cabrera from the disabled list. He’d been serving in a utility role for Detroit, but the Tigers have since called up 26-year-old Ronny Rodriguez, who’d been hitting quite well in Triple-A Toledo and can fill that same utility role on their roster. The 30-year-old Kozma hit .175/.195/.300 in 41 plate appearances for the Tigers this season before being cut from the 40-man roster. He has the ability to reject the outright assignment in favor of free agency, though Detroit’s announcement gave no indication that the former Cardinals shortstop has any plans to do so.

Tigers Sign Junichi Tazawa To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran reliever Junichi Tazawa, per a club announcement. (The move was first noted on Twitter by Roster Roundup.) The righty was released by the Marlins after being designated for assignment last month.

Tazawa, who’ll turn 32 later this week, signed what proved to be an ill-fated two-year, $12MM deal with Miami in the 2016-17 offseason. The former Red Sox setup man struggled enough with the Fish that he couldn’t hold his roster spot through the life of that deal, however. After posting a 5.69 ERA in 55 1/3 innings last season, he opened the 2018 campaign by allowing 20 earned runs in 20 inning of work.

After averaging better than a strikeout per inning with the Red Sox from 2009-16, Tazawa’s strikeout numbers fell off sharply in 2017. He posted a 6.2 K/9 mark and 16 percent overall strikeout rate — each the lowest full-season levels of his MLB career. His strikeouts returned in 2018 — 24 in 20 innings — but he also issued 13 walks and served up six homers with the Marlins. Beyond that, his average fastball velocity sat at a career-low 91.5 mph, and his swinging-strike rate (7.8 percent) and chase rate (28.4 percent) were also career-worsts.

Despite Tazawa’s considerable struggles over the past two seasons, adding him to their Triple-A ranks is a no-risk proposition for the Tigers. The balance of his $7MM salary for the 2018 season will be paid out by the Marlins, so Detroit will only be on the hook for the pro-rated league minimum for any time he spends at the big league level. (That sum would subsequently be subtracted from what the Marlins owe Tazawa.) If he’s able to rebound to any extent, he’ll step up to the big league level to help out a Tigers bullpen that currently ranks 25th in the Majors with a 4.66 ERA.

Marlins Release Jacob Turner

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The Marlins have released right-hander Jacob Turner from their Triple-A affiliate, as was first noted on the Pacific Coast League’s transactions page. He’d opened the year on the team’s active roster but previously been designated for assignment and outrighted.

Turner, 27, appeared in four games for the Marlins’ big league club this season and surrendered 10 runs in 5 2/3 innings while tallying more walks (five) than strikeouts (two). Since being outrighted to New Orleans in early April, the former No. 9 overall pick (2009, Tigers) and top prospect has gone through a rough stretch in Triple-A as well. In 21 2/3 innings, he’s logged a 5.82 ERA with a 17-to-8 K/BB ratio, four home runs allowed and a 48 percent ground-ball rate.

Of course, even including that ugly run, Turner has a career 4.24 ERA in 357 innings at the Triple-A level, and he’s made a total of 55 Major League starts (plus 56 relief appearances) between the Marlins, Tigers, Nationals, Cubs and White Sox. As such, he’ll likely have other opportunities to latch on with another organization as a depth option in the upper minors.

Quick Hits: Hanley, Trumbo, Bellinger, Peavy, Red Sox, Draft

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Hanley Ramirez is getting interest from “multiple teams” since officially becoming a free agent, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo tweets.  It isn’t any surprise that the veteran slugger is drawing some attention, particularly since he’d be available at a prorated minimum salary while the Red Sox cover the approximately $14.5MM remaining on Ramirez’s contract.  Considering the low price tag, any number of teams could have interest — consider that the Orioles, who are already loaded with first base/DH candidates, have already been linked to Ramirez.  It was only weeks ago that Ramirez was one of the league’s hottest hitters (posting a .330/.400/.474 slash line over 110 plate appearances in March and April) before he fell into a deep slump that led to his release from the Sox.

Some more from around the baseball world…

  • Last winter, the Orioles “checked on” any trade interest in Mark Trumbo, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  It isn’t stated how much interest existed, though one can imagine it was a pretty thin market, given that Trumbo was coming off a rough 2017 season and is owed $26MM in 2018-19.  Trumbo has a decent .292/.320/.427 slash line over 100 PA, though he has only two homers and missed all of April recovering from a quad strain.  The O’s seem primed to be deadline sellers, though they’d likely have to eat some money to facilitate a Trumbo deal.  (Incidentally, he also has a seven-team no-trade clause.)
  • The slumping Cody Bellinger hasn’t started two of the Dodgers’ last three games, as manager Dave Roberts talked to reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) about how the reigning NL Rookie Of The Year is trying to adjust to being pitched differently as well as some bad breaks at the plate.  “He’s doing everything right as far as the preparation.  The results just haven’t been there,” Roberts said.  “So as a young player, he’s constantly trying to make adjustments. You get to a point where you wonder if you’re ever going to get a hit. All players go through that at some point in time.”  Roberts wasn’t ready to say that a brief minor league stint might eventually be in the cards for Bellinger, who is hitting only .225/.298/.413 with eight homers over his first 238 plate appearances.
  • In the latest on Jake Peavy’s comeback attempt, the veteran righty will hold a private workout for teams sometime in June, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports.  After sitting out the 2017 season to deal with personal issues, Peavy had been working out and planning to have a showcase in early May, though he said a few weeks ago that he wanted to consult with his children before deciding on a comeback.
  • Also from Cafardo’s piece, he notes that tomorrow’s amateur draft carries particular import for a Red Sox farm system that has been thinned out by trades in recent years.  Between those losses, Jay Groome’s Tommy John surgery and Michael Chavis’ PED suspension, Boston doesn’t seem to have enough young trade chips to make a splash at the deadline.  “Let me put it this way, there isn’t anyone in their farm system that a team would say, ’I have to have that guy.’ Not saying they don’t have anything to make a deal, but they don’t have enough to make a major deal,” one AL scout tells Cafardo.  Of course, it remains to see if the Sox will necessarily be looking for a blockbuster upgrade given that the roster is already in very good shape and cruising towards a postseason berth.
  • With the first round of the draft less than 24 hours away, Baseball America has released its latest mock draft of the first 35 picks.  Auburn right-hander Casey Mize is still seen as the favorite to go to the Tigers with the first overall pick, with Mize unlikely to fall beyond the Giants (at the No. 2 pick) if Detroit goes go in another direction.  Interestingly, Baseball America’s executive editor JJ Cooper (Twitter link) hears from multiple sources that “it is more likely now than it was any time up to now” that the top three picks will be Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart (Tigers), California high schooler Cole Winn (Giants) and then Mize to the Phillies third overall.  Still, there is “only a small chance” of this scenario playing out, and the likeliest scenario is still Mize going to the Tigers.

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