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One-Year MLB Deals Paying Dividends: Pitchers

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We looked in at the top-performing one-year MLB contracts for position players from the 2017-18 offseason just this morning. Now, we’ll perform the same exercise for the hurlers.

It’s still early, of course, but there’s a fairly short period of time for one-year deals to pay off or fizzle out. We’ll identify those hurlers who have posted strong bottom-line results to date. Of course, the picture could still change quite a bit in a few months’ time; as we’ll see, some of the players cited below may well fade, while there’s still ample opportunity for others to deliver value. The six pitchers are ordered from lowest to highest guarantee:

  • Trevor Cahill, SP, Athletics ($1.5MM): Signed late as a replacement for the injured Jharel Cotton, Cahill has been a revelation. He carries 11.6 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9, with a hefty 59.6% groundball rate, through 24 innings of 2.25 ERA pitching. Cahill is getting swings and misses at a 16.0% rate — rare air for a starter. We’ll have to see to what extent he can keep it going once he’s back from a brief DL stint, but it’s a fascinating showing for the 30-year-old veteran.
  • Seung-hwan Oh, RHP, Blue Jays ($2MM): Swinging strikes are worthy of considering with regard to Oh, as well. Unfortunately, he’s again sitting in the ~12% range rather than the 18% rate he showed in his first season in the majors. Oh has also lost some fastball velocity. All told, it seems unlikely he’ll keep up his current pace after carrying a 1.65 ERA through 16 1/3 innings. Still, he looks to be a solid value for the Jays.
  • Bud Norris, RHP, Cardinals ($3MM): The brilliant start to the season from Norris seems rather more sustainable. He’s averaging about a dozen K’s and one free pass per nine innings, with a 15.5% swinging-strike rate and a first-strike rate (72.1%) that’s easily a career-high and near the top among all relievers. This one seems to be a bargain.
  • Doug Fister, SP, Rangers ($4MM): To be sure, 31 1/3 innings of 4.02 ERA pitching is not exactly exciting. Fister is humming along with a solid ~50% groundball rate to go with a middling mix of 7.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. But that’s a nice initial showing on a limited investment. Fister has, however, rather handily outperformed the contact he’s allowed. Statcast credits the hitters that have opposed him with a .352 wOBA that lands far shy of the corresponding .400 xwOBA, so the veteran righty could be in for some regression.
  • Francisco Liriano, SP, Tigers ($4MM): Another veteran hurler who is sporting a yawning x/wOBA gap (.049 in this case), Liriano nevertheless carries a promising .313 xwOBA. Contact management helps explain how the southpaw has managed to throw 40 1/3 innings of 3.35 ERA ball to open the season despite a pedestrian combination of 6.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 47.7% grounder rate. Still, it’d be a surprise if he’s able to keep up quite this rate of productivity.
  • CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees ($10MM): It’s a bit unfair to include a player this costly here, but nevertheless it is notable that the Yanks got Sabathia to return for only a single-season commitment. He’s thriving through six starts, over which he has given 32 1/3 innings with a 1.39 ERA that’s the best of any hurler on this list. While a .211 BABIP screams good fortune, Sabathia has allowed a meager .238 wOBA (against a still-low .266 xwOBA) and has been quite stingy with the free passes (just 1.4 per nine). He’s not going to keep getting mid-prime results, but the 37-year-old is maintaining his arm speed and seems a good bet to continue providing quite a few quality frames over the 2018 season.

MLB Hires Chris Young As VP Of On-Field Operations

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Former MLB hurler Chris Young has joined Major League Baseball as vice president of on-field operations, initiatives, and strategy, per a league announcement. It seems fair to presume, then, that his playing days are over.

Young, who turns 39 later this month, spent Spring Training with the Padres. But he was released after triggering his opt-out clause when the team decided he would not crack the Opening Day roster.

The towering hurler pitched in parts of 13 MLB campaigns, working to a 3.95 ERA over 1,297 2/3 total frames. He spent a plurality of his time with the Padres after debuting with the Rangers. Young also pitched for the Royals, Mets, and Mariners. His best overall season came in 2007 with the Padres, when he earned his lone All-Star nod and ended with 173 innings of 3.12 ERA ball.

While he dealt with some injuries along the way, the former third-round pick from Princeton ended up with a quality major-league career. He tallied 16.7 total rWAR in the majors — leaving him with a narrow lead in that regard over his still-active, like-named contemporary Chris Young (the outfielder).

In his new job, Young will have input in a variety of areas. Per the announcement, he’ll deal with “play on the field, including the application of playing rules and regulations, on-field standards and discipline, pace of play and other special projects.” The definition seems broad enough to suggest that Young’s role will likely take form over time.

Royals Release Seth Maness

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The Royals have released righty Seth Maness from his minor-league deal, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Maness requested the release, per the report, in hopes of finding a chance to work as a starter with another organization.

From 2013 through 2016, Maness was mostly a steady and productive reliever for the Cardinals. But he underwent a primary repair procedure to address UCL damage back in 2016 and has not been able to regain his former standing since.

Though he received some MLB time last year with the Royals, Maness has been knocked around a fair bit since his return. In 58 2/3 Triple-A frames since the start of the 2017 season, he has allowed eighty hits (nine of which left the yard) and 38 earned runs. Maness has recorded a 43:9 K/BB ratio in that span while drawing grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him, echoing his low-BB/high-GB history, but evidently he has not shown enough to warrant an extended stint in the majors.

It seems that Maness would now like to revisit his roots as a starter. He did have success working from the rotation in his only full season of the minors, way back in 2012, when he pitched to a 2.97 ERA with 112 strikeouts and just ten walks over 169 2/3 innings split between High-A and Double-A. That was quite some time ago, but it would not be surprising to see an organization give him a shot at returning to a starting role in the minors.

Giants To Place Johnny Cueto On 60-Day DL, Select Contract Of Jose Valdez

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The Giants have announced some pitching-related roster moves, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to report (Twitter links). Starter Johnny Cueto will move from the 10-day to the 60-day DL to open a 40-man spot for fellow righty Jose Valdez.

Meanwhile, relievers Derek Law and Josh Osich have each been optioned to Triple-A. The latter had been on the DL with a hip strain after struggling in the majors to open the year.

With the move, the Giants are making a somewhat early call on the length of Cueto’s absence. It had been suggested he would miss six to eight weeks with a forearm strain. With today’s placement, though, Cueto won’t be able to return until June 29, by the calculation of Pavlovic (Twitter link).

By making the move now, the San Francisco organization will have another 40-man spot to work with. That should help the team keep the bullpen fresh, which in turn will help weather the absence of Cueto — particularly while Madison Bumgarner is also working back from the DL.

The 28-year-old Valdez has thrown 50 1/3 innings in the majors over the past three years. This will be his first stint with the Giants after brief runs in the bigs with three other team. Thus far in 2018, Valdez has worked to a 3.71 ERA with 13.8 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 through 17 innings over a dozen appearances at Triple-A.

D-Backs Notes: Stadium, Hazen, Corbin

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The Diamondbacks can now officially seek a new home for another new ballpark, as Rebekah Sanders of the Arizona Republic reports. A previously reported agreement is now formally in effect, leaving the D-Backs responsible for maintaining Chase Field (rather than Maricopa County) while allowing the team to jet for another facility — so long as it is in the county — as soon as the 2022 season. Generally, this set of moves promises to boost the team’s long-term financial outlook, though it remains somewhat hard to fathom that Chase Field is truly in need of replacement after opening in 1998.

Here are a few more notes from Arizona:

  • As they continue to lead the pack in the NL West, the Diamondbacks are surely beginning to look forward to what could be a complicated trade deadline. As GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the club will continue to balance competing needs. On the one hand, says Hazen, the current roster “deserves our focus and attention”; on the other, he adds, “we don’t want to do anything that’s going to severely harm the long-term” interest. It’s an interesting article that looks back on some recent Arizona swaps while pondering what situation the team may face this summer.
  • The monster start to the season from Patrick Corbin opened quite a few eyes. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes took note, listing him sixth on the first power ranking of 2018-19 free agents based upon the combination of his first few outings with his youth and prior track record. The results have continued, as Corbin now carries a 2.12 ERA through 51 innings. But as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic examines (subscription link), Corbin’s most recent outings have given some cause for concern. The 28-year-old southpaw has shown a decrease in fastball velocity and reduced ability to command his slider of late, writes Buchanan. Of course, it’s a long season, and some blips are to be expected. Corbin says he still feels in good physical form, but his performance will be scrutinized closely all season long as organizations weigh him as an offseason target.

One-Year MLB Deals Paying Dividends: Position Players

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We already looked at some minor-league contracts that have been winners for teams in the early stages of the 2018 season. (Starters; Relievers; Position Players.) Now, we’ll check in on some of the best low-cost, one-year MLB contracts that were handed out over the winter. We’ll start with the position players.

As with the minors deals, single-season MLB contracts leave teams free from worry about long-term entanglements. But the payout is measured in terms of months  (at least, except in cases of players who are still eligible for arbitration). Now that we’re over a month into the season, a substantial portion of these contracts is already in the books.

Here are the one-year contracts signed by position players that have delivered the best value thus far, ordered from cheapest to most expensive:

  • Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Mets ($545K): Despite only a .254 BABIP, Gonzalez is producing at a useful .247/.324/.438 clip with five home runs over 102 plate appearances. That’s not eye-popping output by any means, but the Mets can’t have reasonably hoped for much more given the league-minimum commitment that they made. Statcast, too, suggests there’s likely more in the tank, as A-Gon is credited with a .397 xwOBA and only carries a .318 wOBA.
  • Leonys Martin, OF, Tigers ($1.75MM): He’s now out with injury, but Martin has been one of the more interesting budget signings of the winter. The talented defender and baserunner doesn’t need to do much at the plate to justify a roster spot, so his .294/.355/.508 output has more than justified the expenditure. He’s also showing a promising x/wOBA deficit (.057) that suggests he’s more than earning the slash with good contact. If he can get back to health and show that he’s still in good form with the bat, Martin could draw the attention of some contenders at the trade deadline.
  • Nick Hundley, C, Giants ($2.5MM): It’s not that surprising to see a Giants catcher with a 156 wRC+ at this stage of the season, but nobody expected it to be Hundley rather than the man he backs up, superstar Buster Posey. There’s no real reason to believe that Hundley will sustain anything like his current output, which has come over just 57 plate appearances. But he is absolutely stinging the ball at present. Indeed, Statcast feels he has been rather unfortunate, valuing his batted-ball output at a .443 xwOBA that far exceeds his actual .388 wOBA. The Giants are surely pleased with their decision to allocate some precious luxury tax space to bring him back.
  • Rene Rivera, C, Angels ($2.8MM): Known as a glove-first backstop, Rivera has similarly raced out of the gates. He’s slashing a robust .283/.340/.478 through fifty trips to the plate. In this case, the good fortune is apparent on the face of the stat sheet, as Rivera carries a .407 BABIP and .308 xwOBA. He won’t keep it up, but the added offense has been a nice bonus thus far for the Halos.
  • Matt Adams, 1B/OF, Nationals ($4MM): If there’s one player on this list whose performance to date has arguably changed his outlook, it may be Adams — though, to be fair, we already held this debate about him last year. The big difference? The 29-year-old is not only mashing taters at a Ruthian rate (ten in 95 plate appearances) with the batted-ball output to match (.464 xwOBA), but is drawing walks in 14.7% of his plate appearances — more than double his career rate. He has been one of the most productive hitters in the game to this point of the season.
  • Curtis Granderson, OF, Blue Jays ($5MM): The veteran outfielder seemed to fade late in 2017, but he’s back strong to begin the current campaign. There’s likely some batted-ball fortune (.419 BABIP) at play, but Granderson is walking at a career-high 19.1% rate and still delivering plenty of pop (.216 ISO). That makes his soaring strikeout rate (29.8%) easier to stomach.
  • Jonathan Lucroy, C, Athletics ($6.5MM): His framing numbers still lag his once-outstanding levels, and the power may never fully return, but Lucroy is providing good value to the A’s after signing late. Thus far he owns a .289/.355/.392 batting line, which is above league average despite the fact that Lucroy has not yet hit a home run. His days as a star may be over, but it seems that Lucroy has figured out a way to get on base enough to remain a regular presence behind the dish, where he remains respected even if he no longer steals strikes with the best of them.
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals ($6.5MM): This deal includes a mutual option, but there’s little reason to believe it’ll function as more than a means of pushing back some of the salary. Moose has picked up right where he left off last year, with ten long balls and a .292/.325/.569 slash over 154 plate appearances. It seems reasonable to anticipate that K.C. will get a shot at cashing him in for some young talent at the deadline.

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Fowler, Knebel, O’Day, Puig

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(May 9th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: SP Ben Lively
      • Lively was optioned to Triple-A

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • DETROIT TIGERS | Depth Chart
    • Placed on 10-Day DL: OF Leonys Martin (strained hamstring)
    • Promoted: OF Mikie Mahtook
      • Mahtook played LF and batted 3rd on Wednesday.
    • Role change: P Blaine Hardy is scheduled to make his first start of the season on Sunday.
  • OAKLAND ATHLETICS | Depth Chart
    • Promoted: OF Dustin Fowler
      • Fowler did not start on Wednesday. He lined out as a pinch hitter in his A’s debut.
    • Placed on 10-Day DL: SP Trevor Cahill (elbow impingement)

—

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

East Notes: Betts, Eaton, Phillies, Clippard

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Mookie Betts tells WEEI’s Rob Bradford that nothing has changed on his end regarding a potential extension with the Red Sox, as the 25-year-old still has no intention of discussing a long-term deal during the season. Controlled for just two years beyond the current campaign, Betts’ increasing proximity to free agency and his continually elevated level of play have priced a theoretical extension out of bargain territory and into a massive financial undertaking, as Bradford examines. Certainly, that’s the case with any young star as he navigates through the arbitration process, but Betts already has one record arbitration payday in his back pocket, and he’s turning in the best season of his young career thus far. The $30MM annual rate that Jose Altuve secured on his recent extension with the Astros seems like an increasingly relevant comp, if not a baseline, Bradford posits in highlighting the difficulties that the Sox could face in locking up their brightest young star.

More from the game’s Eastern divisions…

  • Adam Eaton’s ankle injury doesn’t appear to be healing as well as the Nationals’ might’ve hoped, as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that Eaton is traveling to Wisconsin to be evaluated by a specialist. He’ll meet with orthopedic surgeon Robert Anderson, currently on the Green Bay Packers’ medical staff but also a renowned surgeon who has worked with high-profile athletes ranging from Steph Curry to Cam Newton to Derek Jeter. Eaton has been on the disabled list for nearly a month after suffering an ankle injury on a slide early in the 2018 season.
  • The Phillies announced tonight that they’ve activated right-hander Ben Lively from the 10-day disabled list and optioned him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The 26-year-old Lively opened the season in Philadelphia’s rotation but struggled to a 6.85 ERA in 23 2/3 innings before landing on the disabled list with a back strain. In his absence, fellow righty Zach Eflin stepped into the rotation and has been outstanding in two starts, yielding a run on seven hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. He’ll remain in the rotation over Lively for now, and as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki noted yesterday, a continued hot streak from Eflin could force the Phils to make some tough decisions. GM Matt Klentak has already stated that Jerad Eickhoff will be in the rotation when he returns from the DL later this month, thus pitting Eflin against righties Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta for the final two rotation spots behind Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. Of course, things can change quickly in the coming weeks, either with a downturn in Eflin’s performance or another injury elsewhere on the roster.
  • With Roberto Osuna on administrative leave and under league investigation, the Blue Jays turned to Tyler Clippard with their first save opportunity. Jays manager John Gibbons deployed setup men Seung Hwan Oh, John Axford and Ryan Tepera in the middle innings on Wednesday evening with his team trailing before handing the ninth inning over to Clippard, who worked a scoreless inning with a pair of strikeouts. While Wednesday’s sequence of events doesn’t necessarily anoint Clippard the closer during Osuna’s absence, it does at least suggest that he’s the early favorite for the role. Signed to a minor league deal this March, Clippard has given the Jays 19 1/3 innings of 1.40 ERA ball with 10.2 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9. He’s running up a staggeringly low 18.6 percent ground-ball rate, however, which could well be a portent for further homer troubles down the line. As a reminder for fantasy players, you can track ninth-inning situations throughout the game by following MLBTR’s @CloserNews account on Twitter and by utilizing Jason Martinez’s closer depth chart over at Roster Resource.

Minor MLB Transactions: 5/9/18

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Here are Wednesday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The New Jersey Jackals of the independent CanAm Association announced this week that they’ve signed former big league righty Vin Mazzaro. Now 31 years of age, Mazzaro turned in a terrific season out of the Pirates’ bullpen as a 26-year-old back in 2013, working to a 2.81 ERA with 5.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.37 HR/9 and a 52.2 percent ground-ball rate in 73 2/3 innings. He’s totaled just 23 1/3 innings in the big league since that point, however, stumbling to a 5.79 ERA in that time. He tossed just one inning in 2016 and didn’t appear in the Majors last year. Now, the New Jersey native will join the Jackals for a homecoming of sorts, perhaps leveraging the independent circuit as a stepping stone back into affiliated ball.
  • The Twins traded Double-A lefty Anthony McIver to the Mariners in exchange for cash, as reflected on the transactions log at MLB.com and at each club’s web site. McIver has been solid in 13 1/3 innings of Double-A ball this year, though he’s barely pitched above Class-A Advanced in his pro career to date despite being 26 years of age. The Twins picked him in the 15th round of the 2015 draft, and he’s opened the 2018 season with a 2.70 ERA, a 15-to-5 K/BB ratio, no homers allowed and a 40 percent ground-ball rate.

Mets Agree To Minor League Deal With Patrick Kivlehan

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The Mets added outfielder/infielder Patrick Kivlehan to their Triple-A roster in Las Vegas today, reports Betsy Helfand of the Las Vegas Review Journal (via Twitter). Helfand had previously reported that Bryce Brentz would miss the next four to six weeks after incurring a broken bone when fouling a ball into his foot, so Kivlehan, who was recently released by the Reds, will help to fill Brentz’s spot for the time being.

Kivlehan, 28, logged a career-high 204 plate appearances with the Reds last season but struggled to a .208/.304/.399 batting line. He spent the entire season on Cincinnati’s big league roster and walked at a 10.8 percent clip while also showing some decent pop in his bat, slugging nine homers, five doubles and a triple while posting a .191 ISO in a part-time role. He had trouble making contact on a consistent basis, however, as evidenced by a 29.9 percent strikeout clip.

Through his first 47 plate appearances with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in 2018, Kivlehan hit just .167/.255/.167 with 15 strikeouts against two walks. He’ll head to a more hitter-friendly environment in Vegas as he looks to boost his production closer to the .251/.306/.424 output he’s managed in his Triple-A career. In addition to giving the Mets some coverage in the outfield corners, he also has experience at both corner-infield slots.

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