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NL Notes: Harper, D-Backs, Buchholz, Senzel, DeGrom

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As ever, there’s plenty of water-cooler chatter about the eventual destination of Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, who — had you not heard? — is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Particularly for fans of a Nats organization that is just weeks away from wrapping up a brutally disappointing campaign, it’s a subject of much attention. So eyebrows were raised recently at comments from Harper and, especially, club president of baseball ops/GM Mike Rizzo that could be interpreted as hinting at a reunion. In an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), Harper at least acknowledged a reunion is possible, saying that “it’s going to be an exciting future for the Nationals, and we’ll see if I’m in those plans.” Innocuous enough, to be sure, but perhaps the line could be interpreted as a wink toward contract talks. As for Rizzo, Chris Lingebach of 106.7 The Fan rounded things up. Those interested in parsing the words fully should click the link, but the key phrase at issue from Rizzo is his statement that he “won’t discuss [negotiations with Harper’s camp] until there’s something to announce.” Did the tight-lipped, hard-nosed GM tip his hand? It’s at most an arguable point.

From this vantage point, there’s enough here to make you think, but hardly a clear indication as to how Harper’s fascinating free agency will turn out. Here’s the latest from the National League:

  • The Diamondbacks had held a strong position in the postseason race for much of the season, but as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, they’re now left hoping for a memorable late-season comeback to get in. “[B]reakdowns occurring in every facet of their game,” Piecoro writes, have spurred a ghastly 4-16 run that has reversed the team’s fortunes. Unfortunately, odds are that the Arizona club will head back to the drawing board at season’s end — while watching two significant players (A.J. Pollock and lefty Patrick Corbin) hit the open market. Still, it’s notable that the club has largely followed up on its successful 2017 campaign, as the thought in some quarters entering the year was that there wasn’t really enough talent to keep pace.
  • As is also covered in the above-linked piece, the D-Backs suffered an unwelcome blow in advance of tonight’s loss when they were forced to scratch righty Clay Buchholz. The veteran hurler has been an immense asset for Arizona, throwing 98 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball since joining the club in mid-season as a minor-league signee. He’s now headed to Phoenix for testing, though the hope still seems to be that he’ll return this year. Regardless, it’s unfortunate news for the team but even more disappointing for the 34-year-old, who has dealt with plenty of health problems of late and will be reentering the open market at season’s end.
  • It has long been wondered what the Reds Baseball America points outwill do when they are ready to call up top prospect Nick Senzel, who’s blocked at his natural position of third base. We may be seeing the hints of an answer; as , Senzel is listed as an outfielder in the organization’s instructional league roster. That hardly guarantees anything, of course, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Senzel — who’s opportunity for a late-2018 callup was taken by a finger injury — come into camp in 2019 looking to crack the roster in the corner outfield. Just how it’ll all play out, though, remains to be seen.
  • Speaking of top prospects … among his many notes today, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes that the Mets took a targeted approach to discussions with other teams regarding ace righty Jacob deGrom. As Heyman puts it, the New York organization “focused” on the handful of clubs it deemed to have assets worth haggling over. When those teams weren’t willing to give up their best young assets, talks sputtered. Heyman cites “the Blue Jays, Braves, Padres, Yankees, and perhaps to a lesser extent the Brewers” as clubs that were engaged. But the ultra-premium prospects and young MLB players in those organizations simply weren’t on offer. It’s hard to argue with the Mets’ rationale; deGrom reached a new level this season, after all, and certainly shouldn’t be parted with by a major-market club for less than a compelling return.

MLBTR Poll: National League Divisional Races

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Has this season flown by for anyone else? It may be hard to believe, but there are just over two weeks left in the regular season. That means it’s crunch time in some cases, with much of the focus landing on two National League divisions.

Were it not for the Nationals’ season-long mediocrity and the Phillies’ recent stumbles, the NL East might still be in play. But with a 7.5 game cushion, only a total calamity will keep the Braves from the crown now.

Things are much tighter in the other two groupings. Six teams are still heavily involved in both the divisional and Wild Card races.

True, the Diamondbacks are at risk of falling all the way out of reasonable contention. And the Cardinals are increasingly in a tough spot in the NL Central, though they are in much better shape in the Wild Card picture. But those teams are still not out of things entirely in the divisions, so we’ll include them in our pair of polls.

Which team do you expect to win the NL Central? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

Which Team Will Win The NL Central?
Cubs 61.05% (3,743 votes)
Brewers 33.21% (2,036 votes)
Cardinals 5.74% (352 votes)
Total Votes: 6,131

Which team do you expect to win the NL West? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

Which Team Will Win The NL West?
Rockies 53.33% (3,128 votes)
Dodgers 38.29% (2,246 votes)
Diamondbacks 8.37% (491 votes)
Total Votes: 5,865

AL West Notes: Felix, Lowrie, Cahill, Skaggs, Calhoun, Listach

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Mariners fans in particular will want to read up on the club’s faded ace, Felix Hernandez, in this piece from Scott Miller of Bleacher Report. The veteran hurler has taken his downfall hard, but he’s still working to rediscover the magic that once made him one of the game’s very best pitchers. Of course, his lost fastball velocity means the odds are long; it’s still in full retreat despite the fact that Hernandez says his “body feels good” after dealing with injuries over the past two seasons. It’s a well-conceived and well-paced story — at once deep and, refreshingly, not unnecessarily lengthy — with some notable observations from current and former M’s personnel and others close to Hernandez.

More from the AL West:

  • Athletics second baseman Jed Lowrie acknowledged today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link) that he has had some contact with the club about staying on past the present season. The team’s interest in maintaining the relationship has been known for some time, but it’s interesting nevertheless to hear Lowrie address the matter. To this point, Lowrie says, talks haven’t moved past an initial expression of interest. But he says he likes it in Oakland and believes he fits the club well, so it certainly sounds as if the good vibes flow in both directions. No doubt that’s due in some part to the immense success both player and team have found this year. It’s a second-straight eyebrow-raising season at the plate for Lowrie, who owns a healthy .276/.360/.455 slash since the start of the 2017 campaign. He has set himself up for an interesting trip onto the open market — if nothing comes together first with the A’s.
  • In yet more unwelcome health news for the Athletics, righty Trevor Cahill has gone down with a rhomboid muscle strain, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The upper-back ailment comes at an uncomfortable proximity to the postseason, though it seems as if the expectation is he won’t miss more than a single start. To be sure that things aren’t more serious, Cahill is headed in for an MRI.
  • Angels southpaw Tyler Skaggs was able to work up to a 48-pitch sim game today, skipper Mike Scioscia tells reporters including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). It’s still not clear whether he’ll return to the majors this year, though that figures to be a topic of discussion in the coming days. The 27-year-old, who is rehabbing from an adductor strain, is looking to extend his personal-best 116 2/3-inning, 3.78 ERA showing on the season. Whether or not he’s able to do so, Skaggs has impressed and now seems to be one of the club’s best bets to provide quality frames in 2019 — if he can stay healthy. Skaggs will likely command a nice raise in his second-to-last trip through the arbitration process after earning $1,875,000 this year.
  • It’s still not clear when Rangers prospect Willie Calhoun will get his first real crack at the big leagues. As T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com writes, Calhoun had seemed likely to see much more action in the 2018 season. Instead, after a relatively tepid season at the plate at the Triple-A level, Calhoun is seeing scattered time late this season. It seems the organization still wants to see more from the key piece of last year’s Yu Darvish swap before clearing the way. Beyond his known deficiencies in the field and on the bases, manager Jeff Banister seemingly hinted that there are some strength and conditioning steps that the youngster could take to improve.
  • In other Mariners news, the club will part ways with Triple-A skipper and longtime big leaguer player Pat Listach, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times recently tweeted. That’ll put an end to a four-year run at Tacoma for the former infielder, who has at times been mentioned as a future MLB managerial candidate.

Latest On Rangers’ Offseason Pitching Plans

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With the Rangers currently thin on internal options for the 2019 rotation,  the team will likely be active in free agency this offseason, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. General manager Jon Daniels tells Wilson that the “concept of layering in a quality free agent addition, that’s appealing.”

That said, as Wilson notes, the team isn’t likely to pursue top-of-the-market options like Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin. Rather, a less substantial investment — something along the lines of last winter’s Mike Minor signing (three years, $28MM), perhaps — could be in the cards.

Of course, that assumes not only that the Rangers will be able to offer enough money, but also that they’ll be able to woo an appealing hurler to join a roster that likely won’t be expected to contend immediately. Of course, the very same uncertainties also make the Texas club “a pretty attractive destination” for pitchers who are “willing to compete for innings in Spring Training,” as Daniels put it.

Even if the Rangers end up making a reasonably splashy acquisition, they’ll surely be looking for other arms to battle it out in camp. After all, there are slim pickings on hand.

Beyond Minor, Adrian Sampson, Yohander Mendez, Ariel Jurado and Eddie Butler all possibilities in 2019. Edinson Volquez, too, could be in the mix at some point as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. Wilson notes that Yovani Gallardo would like to return to Texas as well, while the door also seems open for Martin Perez to come back even if his option is declined (as probably ought to be expected).

While it’s true, then, that there are possibilities on hand, that group of hurlers is not exactly overflowing with MLB accomplishment and promise as compared with most staffs around baseball. Neither would the above-suggested reunions clearly move the needle. Given Gallardo’s extraordinary decline and poor results in 2018, for instance, a minor-league deal seems appropriate. It’s also questionable whether Perez is worthy of an MLB pact, though he has youth on his side and has been useful at times in the past.

Clearly, then, Daniels is to be taken at his words regarding the clear-cut openings in the rotation. The situation could very well hold appeal to starters who know they’ll need to win jobs on non-guaranteed pacts in Spring Training.

The veteran executive notes, too, that the organization is open to being “a little less traditional” in how it structures its staff, perhaps opening the door to some creative options in structuring a staff. Bold thinking may well be necessary; barring some unexpectedly consequential acquisitions via trade and/or free agency, after all, the expectations will likely not be terribly lofty for the Rangers’ 2019 rotation.

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/13/18

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Here are Thursday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Tigers announced that right-hander Johnny Barbato cleared waivers after being designated for assignment earlier this week. He’s been outrighted off the 40-man roster. Barbato, 26, tossed just 6 2/3 innings for the Tigers this season and was tagged for nine earned runs in that time. However, he also pitched to an outstanding 1.45 ERA with 37 strikeouts against just 10 walks in 37 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball. Barbato averages a bit better than 94 mph on his fastball and has averaged better than a strikeout per inning throughout his minor league career, but he’s struggled in parts of three MLB seasons with the Yankees, Pirates and Tigers.

Mets To Activate David Wright For Final Homestand; Wright Will Not Play Beyond 2018

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The Mets announced this afternoon that they’ll activate third baseman David Wright from the 60-day disabled list for the final homestand of the 2018 season. Wright will come off the disabled list on Sept. 25, though he won’t return to a regular role.

Wright is currently slated to start at third base for the Mets on Saturday, Sept. 29, and it sounds as though that start could mark the final game of a brilliant career that was unfortunately cut short by significant injuries. Wright said that he cannot foresee a way to continue playing baseball in the future, given his current condition, calling the very process of playing baseball “debilitating” (Twitter links via SNY’s Andy Martino).

Mets players and coaches are on hand today for the press conference announcing the news, and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets that Wright was quickly overcome by the emotion of the moment, telling his teammates: “It’s truly been an honor to take the field with you, and serve as your captain. To the fans, words can’t address my gratitude.”

That Sept. 29 start will mark the culmination of a rehab process for Wright that has spanned more than two years. He last took the field in early June of 2016 and has since been diagnosed with spinal stenosis in addition to undergoing both neck and shoulder surgeries. Through it all, “Captain America” steadfastly endured a grueling rehab effort as he endeavored toward his goal of a return to the Major Leagues.

While Wright, now 35 years old, won’t be coming back to the same Mets team that was defending an NL pennant the last time — far from it — he’ll be returning to the roster as one of the most celebrated players in Mets history. The 38th overall pick in the 2001 draft, Wright reached the Majors as a 21-year-old in 2004 and never looked back. He hit .293/.332/.525 through 69 games as a rookie, and not once in his career did he deliver below-average offensive production, by measure of OPS+.

Wright spent 13 seasons in the heart of the Mets’ lineup, reaching seven All-Star teams, winning two Gold Glove Awards and two Silver Slugger Awards along the way. He garnered MVP votes in six of those 13 seasons, finishing as high as fourth in the voting back in 2007. In 6869 plate appearances, all coming with the Mets, he posted a superlative .296/.376/.491 batting line with 242 home runs and 196 stolen bases. With a blend of power, speed and quality defense at the hot corner, Wright was a true five-tool player during a peak that was all too brief.

Wright also had the honor of representing his country in both the 2009 and 2013 World Baseball Classics, collecting a memorable walk-off hit to push the U.S. into semi-final play in 2009 and launched a grand slam in 2013 as part of a huge tournament performance that earned him the aforementioned “Captain America” moniker.

To be clear, it does not sound as though Wright will formally announce his retirement. Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that Wright, notably, did not use that word when describing his future, though he’s also been informed by doctors that his condition simply will not improve. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that, indeed, Wright will not formally retire but will not return as a player during his contract. Wright is still signed through the 2020 season under the eight-year, $138MM extension he inked in Dec. 2012. He’s slated to earn $15MM in 2019 and $12MM in 2020 on that front-loaded deal, and if he’s declared medically unfit to play — as will be the case — he’ll continue to be paid out those sums.

The insurance policy the Mets took out on that contract reportedly covers 75 percent of that salary for any time spent on the 60-day DL, so the Mets will only owe him a total of $6.75MM between the 2019 and 2020 seasons, barring a buyout agreement with the insurance company. The situation is reminiscent of that of Prince Fielder, whose career was similarly cut short by neck injuries that rendered him unable to continue playing.

Regardless of the financial details, Wright will go down as one of the best players in franchise history and will be remembered as one of the most respected players in the game during his time as a Major Leaguer. Mets COO Jeff Wilpon says that there will indeed be a discussion about the retirement of Wright’s No. 5 (Twitter link via the New York Post’s Mike Puma), though there’s no specific timetable just yet as to when that honor would be bestowed upon venerable team captain. For now, the focus will be on Wright’s last hurrah with the only team he’s ever known — on the emotional farewell that Wright will bid to the fans he’s cherished and the game to which he’s dedicated life.

Prospect Notes: Vlad, 2018 Draftees, Twins, Franco, Pitchers

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With the season effectively over for all but a few teams, many front offices and fanbases alike are turning their sights toward the 2019 season and beyond as they hope for better days. With that in mind, here’s a look at some notes on some of the game’s top prospects from around the league…

  • ESPN’s Keith Law named Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. his prospect of the year for a second consecutive season (subscription required), citing familiar questions about his long-term defensive capabilities but adding that there’s “zero question in my mind” that Guerrero is more than ready to thrive against Major League pitching at the moment. As for 2018 draftees, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman and Royals lefty Daniel Lynch have been the two most impressive in his estimation. Gorman destroyed Appalachian League pitching and was promoted to full-season Class-A ball despite only having turned 18 in May. Lynch, a University of Virginia product, split his pro debut between those same two levels and pitched to a 1.58 ERA with a 61-to-8 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 innings.
  • Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com took a longer-term look at prospects yesterday, attempting to forecast who will be the top-ranked prospects this time a year from now. With names like Guerrero, Eloy Jimenez, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Tucker all expected to graduate from prospect lists next year, Callis and Mayo tab Twins shortstop Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick from 2017, as their pick to be the game’s top prospect a year from now. More encouraging for Twins fans is that 2016 first-rounder and outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, lands third on the same list after hitting .348/.392/.578 between Class-A and Class-A Advanced in his return from that surgery.
  • Meanwhile, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser writes that Rays shortstop Wander Franco has been tabbed as BA’s breakout prospect of 2018. (Franco also appears on the previously mentioned lists from Law and MLB.com.) The 17-year-old Franco grew up living next to Indians superstar Jose Ramirez in the Dominican Republic and calls his childhood neighbor and friend his “idol” and greatest influence as a hitter. Glaser speaks to Franco about his relationship with Ramirez and his progress in 2018, and he also chats with Franco’s Appalachian League manager, Danny Sheaffer, about the young phenom’s strengths and upside. Franco was one of just two 17-year-olds playing in the Appy League this year but crushed older pitching to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 slash with 11 homers, 10 doubles and seven triples in 273 plate appearances.
  • Evaluating pitching prospects is among the most challenging endeavors for teams and online analysts alike. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs recently explored the pitfalls of attempting to do so, suggesting that many mainstream publications (his own past work at Fangraphs included) have leaned too heavily in favor of “power-over-feel” prospects and downplayed the potential significance of players cut from the Shane Bieber cloth — those who possess above-average command and stuff but perhaps not an overpowering arsenal of 60- or 70-grade offerings. McDaniel highlights Tigers righty Matt Manning, White Sox righty Dylan Cease and Rays lefty/first baseman Brendan McKay in examining the various elements that have contributed to this line of thinking in an interesting column that those who avidly follow prospects will want to check out in its entirety.

Joe Mauer Undecided On Playing Beyond 2018

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Each one of Joe Mauer’s nearly 8,000 career plate appearances has come in a Minnesota Twins uniform. The St. Paul native has said in the past in stating that he can’t see himself playing anywhere other than Minnesota if he’s to continue his career beyond the 2018 campaign — the final season of a franchise-record eight-year, $184MM contract. But while Mauer has previously said he’d like to continue playing, he took a more cautious approach in speaking with La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune yesterday.

“There’s a lot [more] that goes into it than just, ‘Do you want to play?” Mauer replied when asked about continuing his career. “There’s a lot of different dynamics that go into it. I owe it to myself and my family to sit down and think about those things.”

Specifically, the 35-year-old Mauer goes on to cite yet another concussion that he suffered when making a diving attempt at a foul ball behind first base this past May, as well as the expected arrival of his third child this coming November. Mauer was well on his way to becoming one of the the best-hitting catchers in Major League history (and still can be considered as such, albeit over a shorter period than many expected) when a long-running series of concussions forced him out from behind the plate and began a decline in his offensive output.

To his credit, Mauer may have performed a bit better than some would expect since changing positions. He’s posted slightly above-average overall numbers at the plate (.276/.358/.387; 104 OPS+), including a particularly solid .305/.384/.417 slash last season. There’s no dodging the fact, though, that his bat hasn’t produced at anywhere near its once-elite levels. And while he quickly became a strong defensive first baseman,  that decline in offense is all the more glaring when considering the manner in which he moved down the defensive spectrum from catcher to first base.

None of that is to suggest that Mauer can’t still provide some value to the 2019 Twins (or, in the event of a dramatic shift in thinking, to another team). He’s turned in 10.3 wins above replacement from 2014-18, per Baseball-Reference (6.3, per Fangraphs). He’s also still a solid source of on-base percentage who rarely strikes out and is known for making opposing pitchers work (4.19 pitches per appearance — 14th-best in the Majors). That said, if he were to return for a 16th big league season, it would assuredly be at a significantly reduced rate.

As for whether the Twins’ front office would want him back, both chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine expressed to Neal that they’re open to bringing the former No. 1 overall pick back in 2019.

“If he came with us with the question you posed, ‘I’d like to play another season, what does that look like?’ I think we’re rolling up our sleeves and having a conversation with him,” said Levine. Falvey added that Mauer has “earned the right to have that conversation at his own pace” and that the team “fully supports” Mauer’s preference to make that an offseason decision rather than one they’ll discuss in September.

In the event that Mauer does decide to hang things up, the Twins will have some internal options to replace him. Logan Morrison’s $8MM mutual option will presumably be bought out following an injury-ruined season, but Tyler Austin has performed reasonably well since being traded over from the Yankees (.243/.313/.541 through 83 PAs). Miguel Sano has experience at first base and is likely better suited in the long run playing there than at third base. The free-agent market offers some potential platoon partners for Austin (e.g. Matt Adams), and the trade market, too, will present numerous options.

All of that cart-before-horse talk should be put on hold, however, as Mauer’s ultimate decision will undoubtedly impact the manner in which Falvey, Levine and the rest of the front office go about constructing a 2019 roster they hope can atone for a disappointing 2018 campaign in Minneapolis.

AL East Notes: Hays, Price, Yankees

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Orioles outfield prospect Austin Hays is set to undergo surgery to repair an ankle fracture, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Hays, who made his big league debut last September after an enormous minor league season sent him skyrocketing up national prospect rankings, was limited to 75 games in 2018 and batted just .235/.266/.410 in that time. Though he’s had a brief cup of coffee in the Majors, Hays has yet to even suit up for a Triple-A game; he hit .329/.365/.593 with 32 homers, 32 doubles and five triples between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last season and spent the bulk of 2018 in Double-A (when healthy). Hays had been slated to play in the Arizona Fall League, but it seems he’ll now forgo that to clean up the lingering ankle issue that has plagued his 2018 season. He only recently turned 23 and is still viewed as an important piece of the Orioles’ future, though the 2018 season looks to have gone down as something of a lost season for the 2016 third-rounder. Hays himself has also confirmed that he’ll have surgery tomorrow (Twitter link).

Elsewhere in the AL East…

  • David Price has an opt-out clause in his seven-year, $217MM contract following the season, but the left-hander’s recent comments to Christopher Smith of MassLive.com strongly suggest he’ll remain with the Red Sox. Asked if he would consider opting out because of his recent stretch of dominance, Price bluntly replied: “Why would I leave here to go to a team that’s not as good as this team? I came here to win.” Of course, it’s never seemed likely that the 33-year-old Price would opt out of the remaining $127MM on his deal (as explored here last week), but those comments make that outcome seem all the more certain. Over his past 128 2/3 innings (including tonight’s start), Price has a 2.94 ERA with a 137-to-27 K/BB ratio. Nearly 20 percent of the 42 runs he’s allowed in that 21-start stretch came in one outing; excluding that hiccup, he’s been a brilliant complement to Chris Sale atop the Boston rotation, creating a formidable one-two punch for rookie manager Alex Cora.
  • Aroldis Chapman could be activated from the disabled list sometime next week, Yankees manager Aaron Boone tells reporters (link via Newsday’s Erik Boland). Chapman, on the disabled list due to tendinitis, threw a side session Wednesday which Boone says “went really well.” The Yanks also announced prior to today’s game that righty Chance Adams has been recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He’s been working in a relief role in Triple-A since his last demotion, so he could give the Yanks some relief depth in the season’s final weeks. In four bullpen appearances in Triple-A, Adams allowed one run on five hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings.

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