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2025 MLB Draft, First Round Results

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This year’s amateur draft is officially underway, and we’ll be updating this post throughout the night with every first-round selection.  More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

Here are the first-round selections….

  1. Washington Nationals: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (OK)
  2. Los Angeles Angels: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  3. Seattle Mariners: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
  4. Colorado Rockies: Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater High School (OK)
  5. St. Louis Cardinals: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
  6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona High School (CA)
  7. Miami Marlins: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
  8. Toronto Blue Jays: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis High School (MS)
  9. Cincinnati Reds: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville High School (AL)
  10. Chicago White Sox: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona High School (CA)
  11. Athletics: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
  12. Texas Rangers: Gavin Fien, SS/3B, Great Oak High School (CA)
  13. San Francisco Giants: Gavin Kilen, SS/2B, Tennessee
  14. Tampa Bay Rays: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek High School (GA)
  15. Boston Red Sox: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
  16. Minnesota Twins: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
  17. Chicago Cubs: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest
  18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson High School (TX)
  19. Baltimore Orioles: Ike Irish, C, Auburn
  20. Milwaukee Brewers: Andrew Fischer, 1B/3B, Tennessee
  21. Houston Astros: Xavier Neyens, SS/3B, Mount Vernon High School (WA)
  22. Atlanta Braves: Tate Southisene, SS, Basic High School (NV)
  23. Kansas City Royals: Sean Gamble, OF/2B, IMG Academy (FL)
  24. Detroit Tigers: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles High School (FL)
  25. San Diego Padres: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset High School (OR)
  26. Philadelphia Phillies: Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
  27. Cleveland Guardians: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M

The first round officially consists of only 27 picks since the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all had their first-round selections dropped back by 10 slots.  The three teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier in 2024, and thus their punishment included a 10-slot drop in their opening draft choice.

The 2025 draft is split up over two nights.  Rounds 4-20 will take place tomorrow, while the draft’s first 105 picks will come off the board tonight.  Those 105 picks consist of the first three proper rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, and two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and the Royals getting the 28th overall pick due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive.  The evening’s 105th and final selection will be a compensatory pick to the Angels for not agreeing to a deal with 81st overall pick Ryan Prager.

Padres Interested In Korey Lee

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The Padres are known to be looking for help behind the plate, and their search for catching has extended to the Windy City.  The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that the Padres have interest in White Sox catcher Korey Lee, who has spent much of the 2025 season either on the big league injured list or at Triple-A Charlotte.

It wasn’t long ago that Lee seemed like a potential building block for the Sox, as he opened the 2024 season as Chicago’s regular catcher and hit .309/.341/.494 in his first 85 plate appearances.  Unfortunately for Lee, his bat then went ice cold for the remainder of the year.  He finished with a .210/.244/.347 slash line in 394 PA, and his 64 wRC+ was the third-lowest of any 2024 player who received at least 300 trips to the plate.  Lee’s 2025 campaign then got off a rough start when he suffered a left ankle sprain in early April, which resulted in over six weeks on the IL.

Lee’s last big league appearance this season came on June 5, and he has since been playing in Charlotte.  With highly-regarded prospects Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero now taking over as Chicago’s catching tandem, Lee simply looks like the odd man out.  Blake Sabol was just acquired today in a trade from the Red Sox, which could push Lee even further down the depth chart or hint that Lee could soon be on his way elsewhere.

The Astros took Lee with the 32nd pick of the 2019 draft, and his 12-game rookie season in 2022 netted him a World Series ring right at the start of his Major League career.  Lee was dealt from Houston to Chicago at the 2023 trade deadline in the swap that brought Kendall Graveman to the Astros, and Lee has thus far hit .192/.231/.315 over 521 career plate appearances in the big leagues.

It isn’t much of a track record, though Lee has hit pretty well during his time at Triple-A, including a .262/.342/.438 slash line in 146 PA with Charlotte in 2025.  Lee was very good at throwing out baserunners in 2024, but Statcast hasn’t loved his defensive work overall, with generally negative grades for Lee’s framing and blocking (albeit in a small sample size of MLB action).  If Lee doesn’t look like a difference-maker on paper for the Padres, he is just shy of his 27th birthday, and might be able to yet unlock his past draft potential with another change of scenery.

As it relates to San Diego, Lee still could represent an upgrade on a catching situation that has nowhere to go but up.  Padres catchers have combined for -0.9 bWAR in 2025, easily the lowest of any team’s catching corps.  Veterans Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonado have a cumulative slash line of .190/.250/.296 in 342 plate appearances, and Maldonado’s once-acclaimed glovework has also fallen off, as per public metrics.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Alcantara, Cabrera, Fried, Gil, Garcia, Rodriguez

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A ten-game winning streak has launched the Red Sox back into the playoff race, and all but confirmed that the club will be looking to buy before the trade deadline.  Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has stated that the Sox are looking at pitching options, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam opines that the Red Sox would likely prefer controllable pitchers in particular, so this new hurler could help support the club’s talent core for more than just the remainder of 2025.  However, as of two days ago, McAdam noted that Boston hadn’t yet spoken with the Marlins about two controllable potential trade candidates — Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera.

While there’s still plenty of time before the July 31 deadline for the Sox to inquire about either pitcher, the lack of interest to date might indicate that Breslow simply might have other pitchers on his target list.  Alcantara’s past Cy Young Award-winning form makes him perhaps the summer’s likeliest trade candidate, yet the right-hander has struggled badly in his return from Tommy John surgery.  Cabrera is arbitration-controlled through 2028 so the rebuilding Marlins might not see a reason to move him just yet, and certainly not for anything less than a massive trade return.  Health is also a concern with Cabrera, as he left Friday’s start early due to elbow discomfort but might be able to avoid the injured list after a precautionary MRI came back clean.

More from around the AL East….

  • Yankees ace Max Fried left Saturday’s start after three innings due to a blister on the index finger of his throwing hand, and he told The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner and other reporters today that it was too soon to tell whether or not Fried would be healed and ready to make his first start after the All-Star break.  Fried is no stranger to blister problems, and the unpredictable nature of the injury means that it could be at least a few days before the southpaw or the club has any clarity on the situation.  Despite some shaky results in his last three starts, Fried still finished the first half with tremendous numbers, including a 2.43 ERA over 122 innings in his debut season in New York.
  • Speaking of Yankees pitchers, Luis Gil has been sidelined all season by a lat strain, but the reigning AL Rookie of the Year began a minor league rehab assignment today with Double-A Somerset.  Gil threw 36 strikes during the 50-pitch outing, recording six strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings of work while allowing a run on two hits and a walk.  This sharp performance is a good sign for Gil as he gets back to full readiness, and his long layoff means that his rehab stint will probably stretch into August.  An in-form Gil would be a massive boon for the Yankees’ rotation for the remainder of the season, and the team’s trust in Gil’s health could inform how much of a push New York makes for pitching help at the deadline.
  • Yimi Garcia may not need a rehab assignment for his sprained ankle, and he could rejoin the Blue Jays’ bullpen when first eligible to be activated from the 15-day injured list.  (Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling was among the members of the Toronto beat to report the news.)  Garcia has pitched just once in the majors since May 22, as he was first sidelined by a shoulder impingement and then quickly picked up his ankle sprain that necessitated a return to the 15-day IL on July 5.  The reliever threw a bullpen session on Friday and is slated to throw another soon, and his recovery from those sessions should determine the Jays’ next step.
  • Rays right-hander Manuel Rodriguez will probably visit with doctors on Monday after experiencing elbow soreness during his most recent rehab outing, manager Kevin Cash told the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin and other reporters.  A forearm strain sent Rodriguez to the 15-day IL just over a month ago, and Friday was supposed to be his final rehab outing, except the reliever’s elbow started acting up and his velocity dropped noticeably.  Rodriguez has been an underrated bullpen weapon over his two-plus seasons in Tampa, delivering a 2.12 ERA over 68 relief innings since the start of the 2024 season.  This isn’t the first time Rodriguez has dealt with a major arm problem, as an elbow strain cost him the majority of the 2022 campaign when Rodriguez was still a member of the Cubs organization.

Eight Teams Showing Interest In Luis Robert Jr.

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Luis Robert Jr. has long been seen as a natural trade candidate, and interest remains in the former All-Star even as he is battling through a second consecutive difficult year.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that “eight teams have checked in” with the White Sox about Robert, without specifying the identities of any of these suitors.

After going 1-for-4 in Chicago’s 6-5 loss to the Guardians today, Robert concludes the first half with only a .190/.275/.325 slash line over 306 plate appearances.  Robert’s strikeout and walk rates are both near the bottom of the league, and while his .315 xwOBA is much higher than his .264 wOBA, even that .315 number is subpar.  Despite this overall dismal offensive performance, a few bright spots exist.  The right-handed hitting Robert has a very impressive .913 OPS against southpaws (but a .498 OPS against righty pitching), he has stolen 22 bases in 28 attempts, and his barrel and walk rates are above average.

Between this season and his injury-marred 2024 campaign, Robert has hit just .210/.277/.356 in 727 PA since Opening Day 2024, translating to a 76 wRC+.  His center field glovework has declined since a 2023 season that now seems like a career year, though Robert’s defense is still at least decent, adding another possible plus for any interested suitors.

Hindsight being 20-20, the ideal time for the White Sox to move Robert was in the wake of his All-Star campaign in 2023, given how his production has since cratered.  The Sox opted to keep Robert in the hopes that another healthy and productive season would only enhance his trade value, yet this plan has now backfired.  Even with the amount of interest that Robert is still generating, obviously the White Sox aren’t going to get nearly the haul they once anticipated getting for the outfielder, which is a big setback for a rebuilding team that still needs a lot more talent.

2025 is the final guaranteed year of the six-year, $50MM extension Robert signed prior to the 2020 season.  The Sox hold $20MM club options (each with a $2MM buyout) on his services for both 2026 and 2027, and this extra contractual control was once seen as another major asset to Robert’s trade value.  He has approximately $6.25MM remaining of his $15MM salary for 2025, so with that $2MM buyout, the $8.25MM price tag attached to Robert now might be too pricey for other teams to fully entertain, given his struggles.  The Sox are reportedly willing to include money to help facilitate trades of Robert and Andrew Benintendi, though one would imagine that’s a greater concern as it relates to Benintendi’s much larger remaining salary obligations.

Heyman notes that some clubs feel Robert could benefit from being “a complementary player,” which isn’t a surprise given his drastic splits.  Robert’s ability to still crush lefties provides some hope that he can get his overall game on track, as interested suitors might also feel that Robert can benefit simply from a change of scenery.  Still just a few weeks shy of his 28th birthday, Robert should be in his prime, and that big 2023 season certainly still lingers in the minds of rival front offices.

The Dodgers, Giants, Reds, Mariners, and Mets are among the clubs who have been linked to Robert’s trade market in the last couple of years, with New York showing interest as recently as May.  It would seem that probably every contender with a need in the outfield could at least call up White Sox GM Chris Getz to make a few inquiries about an asking price for Robert, and even a brief hot streak for Robert after the All-Star break could spark a minor bidding war.

Tigers Sign Geoff Hartlieb To Minor League Contract

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The Tigers signed Geoff Hartlieb to a minors contract and assigned the right-hander to Triple-A Toledo, as per Hartlieb’s MLB.com profile page.  Hartlieb made his debut for Toledo today, tossing 1 1/3 relief innings and picking up the win in the Mud Hens’ 6-1 victory over Omaha (the Royals’ Triple-A club).

It was just two days ago that Hartlieb entered free agency, as he chose to test the market rather than an accept an outright assignment to the Yankees’ Triple-A club.  Hartlieb has been DFA’ed and outrighted several times over the years, and thus has the right to decline any further outrights in favor of free agency.  Just since the start of July, Hartlieb was twice designated for assignment by New York — his first trip to free agency saw him quickly re-sign with the Yankees, but this latest venture now sees Hartlieb land in Detroit.

The 30-year-old Hartlieb has pitched in parts of six Major League seasons, though with only 80 2/3 career innings in the Show.  The first 57 1/3 of those frames came with the Pirates in 2019-20, and Hartlieb has since bounced around for sporadic duty with the Mets, Marlins, and Rockies in addition to his time in the Bronx.  Hartlieb has a 7.92 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, and a very high 14.9% walk rate against big league hitters.

His Triple-A numbers are considerably better, as Hartlieb took a 4.17 career ERA in Triple-A ball into today’s outing against Omaha.  This solid production in the minors has consistently gotten Hartlieb looks from clubs in need of relief depth, and the Tigers are the latest team to bring the right-hander aboard.  Hartlieb is out of minor league options, which limits his flexibility if he gets called back up to the majors, and likely means he’ll face future trips to DFA limbo.

Brewers Designate Drew Avans For Assignment

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The Brewers announced a trio of roster moves, including the news that outfielder Drew Avans has been designated for assignment.  The DFA opens up a 40-man roster spot for Blake Perkins, who was returned from his minor league rehab assignment and optioned to Triple-A Nashville, after spending the entire season on the injured list.  Right-hander Easton McGee was also optioned to Triple-A.

It was a little over a month ago that the Athletics designated Avans, which led to the Brewers obtaining the outfielder via waiver claim.  Avans made his Major League debut in the form of seven games with the A’s this season, and his time in the Brewers organization has mostly been spent in Nashville, apart from a lone appearance on Milwaukee’s active roster back on June 15.  Over 18 plate appearances at the big league level, Avans has two singles and only a .229 OPS.

The 29-year-old Avans has posted much more solid numbers during a minor league career that began when the Dodgers took him in the 33rd round of the 2018 draft.  Avans had played only in the L.A. farm system before joining the A’s on a minors deal this past offseason, and he has a .275/.374/.408 slash line, 37 home runs, and 145 stolen bases over 2328 career PA at the Triple-A level.

Between his speed, decent hitting numbers, and an ability to play all three outfield positions, Avans could very well get claimed again by another club in need of outfield depth.  If he clears waivers, he isn’t eligible to elect free agency, so the Brewers could either release Avans or just outright him off the 40-man roster and send him to Triple-A Nashville.

Perkins fouled a ball off himself during a Spring Training batting practice session back in February, resulting in a shin fracture that has cost the outfielder the entire 2025 campaign.  He started his minor league rehab assignment on June 14 but was set back by a minor groin injury in early July that cost him about a week of action.  Since his 30-day rehab window was up, Milwaukee had to make a decision on his status, and optioning Perkins to Triple-A allows him to keep playing throughout the All-Star break.

It is possible Perkins might be in line for his 2025 debut relatively soon, depending on Sal Frelick’s health.  Frelick is slated to undergo an MRI after the outfielder made an early exit from today’s game due to hamstring soreness.  Emerging as Milwaukee’s everyday right fielder this season, Frelick has hit .294/.354/.404 with seven homers and 17 steals over 385 PA, while also delivering outstanding defense.  Losing Frelick would be a blow to the Brewers’ playoff push, but the All-Star break will allow Frelick four days to rest up and hopefully avoid the IL.

Mariners Agree To Sign First-Round Pick Kade Anderson

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The Mariners and third overall pick Kade Anderson have already reached an agreement, as Just Baseball Media’s Aram Leighton reports that the two sides have agreed to a deal with a bonus of roughly $8.8MM.  That would represent a significantly below-slot signing, as the third pick comes with a slot price of $9,504,400.

Anderson rose to prominence over his two seasons at LSU, particularly in the 2025 season when he emerged as a full-time starter and arguably the best pitcher in college ball.  Anderson posted a 3.18 ERA over 119 innings (with a 37.4% strikeout rate and 7.28% walk rate) and was named the most outstanding player of the College World Series as LSU captured their eighth NCAA title.

This breakout made the southpaw one of the top prospects of the 2025 draft class, and the top pitching prospect in the eyes of some evaluators.  Kiley McDaniel had Anderson as the best prospect overall on ESPN’s board, while MLB Pipeline had Anderson second, Fangraphs and Keith Law each had the left-hander third, and Baseball America had Anderson fourth in their rankings.

Anderson’s fastball, slider, and curveball each received at least a 55 from Pipeline and Baseball America on the 20-80 scouting scale, and Pipeline’s scouting report also put a 60 grade on Anderson’s changeup.  He throws a lot of strikes with all of his pitches, and Anderson’s fastball is usually in the 92-94 range with the occasional top-out up to 97mph, and this relatively modest velocity is enhanced by plenty of movement.  Health is a bit of a question, as Anderson underwent a Tommy John surgery in high school and is of around average size at 6’2″ and 179 pounds.

While Anderson doesn’t have a lot of college innings under his belt, it might not take him too long to start knocking on the door for a promotion to the majors.  The Mariners are already deep in pitching, and their draft-lottery luck in landing the third pick has now brought a high-level young arm into the organization.

Blue Jays Interested In Zac Gallen

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After operating with a short-handed rotation for much of the season, starting pitching is a natural need for the Blue Jays as the deadline approaches.  The Jays “are looking for a front-line pitcher,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen is one of the hurlers on Toronto’s target list.

The D’Backs took a 46-50 record into today’s game with the Angels, and they sit 6.5 games back of the final NL wild card spot.  A team with such high expectations (and a club-record payroll) might wait until closer to the deadline before finally deciding to sell, but barring a major winning streak after the All-Star break, it certainly looks like Arizona will be moving some talent at the deadline.  Nightengale writes that the Diamondbacks are already open to discussing impending free agents, which could make Arizona a sought-after trade partner if such players as Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, or Merrill Kelly are available.

Gallen is perhaps the most difficult player of that group to evaluate in terms of trade value, as he is posting the worst season of his seven-year MLB career.  The righty has a 5.40 ERA in 115 innings and a slate of unimpressive Statcast metrics, including some of the worst hard-contact rates of any pitcher in the league.  Gallen has been prone to hard contact even in his best years, but a worsening walk rate over the last two seasons has contributed to his struggles.  A 4.18 SIERA indicates that Gallen should be out-performing his actual ERA, though those are still the numbers of more a mid-rotation arm rather than a front-of-the-rotation type.

The catch is that Gallen has looked like an ace in the past, with three top-nine finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting on his resume.  His best finish was a third-place result in 2023, when Gallen had a 3.47 ERA over 210 innings for an Arizona team that made a surprise run to the NL pennant.  The 210 frames was a career high for Gallen, and he added another 33 2/3 innings on his arm during the Diamondbacks’ lengthy playoff run.  It can’t be overlooked that Gallen hasn’t quite looked the same since that signature season, as his production took a step backwards in 2024 before his sharper downturn this year.

Arizona is surely still going to put a significant asking price on Gallen, hoping that rival teams could view him as a change-of-scenery candidate.  The Diamondbacks’ trade efforts will also naturally be helped by the fact that basically every contender could use a starter, plus Gallen is relatively affordable (around $5.625MM remains on his $13.5MM salary).  A pitcher with Gallen’s history will draw interest even if his most recent results haven’t been good.  From the perspective of trade suitors, however, those 2025 numbers will surely loom large, as clubs will have to gauge how much they’re willing to offer for a rental pitcher who isn’t in top form.

The Blue Jays have leaned hard on Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt as the top three starters in their rotation this season, as Max Scherzer’s injuries and Bowden Francis’ struggles left Toronto operating with what felt like a three-man rotation for a big chunk of the first half.  Scherzer has since returned to the mound (though is still managing thumb discomfort) and minor league signing Eric Lauer has pitched really well since joining the rotation in May, plus Alek Manoah has started a rehab assignment and is expected to be back at some point late in the second half in his return from UCL surgery.

With this much uncertainty, another solid starter would go a long way towards helping the Jays’ chances of keeping their lead in the AL East, or at least making the postseason bracket.  Gallen figures to be one of many names linked to the Blue Jays as GM Ross Atkins evaluates what promises to be a typically busy trade market for pitching.

Cardinals Activate Ivan Herrera, Place Lars Nootbaar On 10-Day IL

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Prior to today’s game, the Cardinals activated catcher Ivan Herrera from the 10-day injured list.  The corresponding move saw another regular hit the 10-day IL, as outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been sidelined by what the Cards described as a left costochondral sprain.

Herrera hasn’t played since June 19 due to a Grade 2 hamstring strain, though the fact that he was able to return from a more severe strain within a month’s time is a positive sign.  This was the second IL stint of the year for Herrera, who missed a month due to left knee inflammation in April and early May.  As a result, Herrera’s 2025 campaign has been limited to 43 games, counting his appearance as the designated hitter in today’s contest with the Braves.

Despite the injuries, Herrera has swung a hot bat when he has been able to play, as he hit .320/.392/.533 with eight homers over his first 171 trips to the plate.  In order to keep Herrera healthy, the Cardinals aren’t expected to use him much as a catcher over the remainder of the year, so Herrera will mostly act as a DH.

In an interesting wrinkle, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote that the Cards also had Herrera go through some workouts as an outfielder, so he could potentially contribute in the field without entirely locking up the DH spot.  A career catcher, Herrera has never played in the outfield as a professional, as his only other positional experience consists of a few games as a first baseman during winter ball action.

Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol downplayed the idea of Herrera getting any significant time as an outfielder, simply saying “we’re going to see what that looks like.  We know catching is a stressor. We want to do whatever allows him to stay healthy all the way through, and if we feel at any point that it’s strictly DH, then it’s well worth it to keep his bat in the lineup and give him days off when we need the flexibility of moving someone into that spot.”

Speaking of outfielders, Nootbaar will get a full IL stint to heal up after dealing with a side problem for the last few days.  The costochondral joints connect the ribs to costal cartilage, so while the situation certainly isn’t pleasant for Nootbaar, he has at least avoided an oblique strain that might’ve led to a much longer absence.   Nootbaar missed about seven weeks of the 2024 season due to a pair of IL stints related to an oblique strain and a rib contusion.

Nootbaar is hitting .227/.332/.381 with 12 homers over 386 plate appearances this year, translating to a 104 wRC+ that is just above the league average.  The left-handed hitting Nootbaar has played almost every day for St. Louis, playing mostly left field while chipping in at the other two outfield positions.  After injuries hampered him in both 2023 and 2024, it was a good sign that Nootbaar had at least been able to stay on the field until now, and the hope is that he won’t miss too much more time to get back to playing condition.  Brendan Donovan, Jose Fermin, or Garrett Hampson figure to be used in left field while Nootbaar is out.

Multiple Teams Showing Interest In Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax

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Virtually every contender is looking for relief help come the deadline each season, and the 2025 campaign figures to be no exception to that. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, two members of the Twins’ bullpen are getting plenty of attention from rival clubs this trade season: closer Jhoan Duran and setup man Griffin Jax. Nightengale highlights the Phillies as one potential suitor, a suggestion that lines up with reporting last week regarding Philadelphia’s interest in the pair, and goes on to list the Tigers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Reds as other clubs that are intrigued by Minnesota’s impact arms.

It’s not hard to see why teams would have interest in the duo. Duran is the bigger name of the two. The 27-year-old has averaged more than 100 mph on his fastball every season of his career and pairs his impressive 31.0% career strikeout rate with a career ground ball rate of 63.9%. That ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground is hard to match, and Duran’s 2.38 ERA since making his big league debut back in 2022 speaks for itself. Jax, meanwhile, pitched poorly as a starter in his rookie season but has posted a 3.22 ERA with a 2.63 FIP, a 30.3% strikeout rate, and a 50.3% ground ball rate since moving to the bullpen in 2022.

A .391 BABIP has held Jax’s results back this year, but he’s striking out an absurd 38.0% of batters faced while walking 5.8%. Duran, meanwhile, has by far the lowest K-BB% of his career in 2025 but is making up for it with an eye-popping 69.2% ground ball rate. Duran is in the midst of the stronger season and has substantial closing experience that Jax lacks, but either one should bring Minnesota back a haul if traded this summer between their dominance and the fact that they can both be controlled via arbitration through the end of the 2027 season.

Of course, all of this hinges on the Twins actually being interested in selling. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey suggested just a few short weeks ago that the club was not “focusing on” the possibility of selling this summer. Minnesota has gone 11-8 since Falvey made those comments, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them decide to hold onto controllable pieces like Duran and Jax. On the other hand, trading one of the club’s two dominant relievers could make it easier for the club to address other holes in the roster while still retaining the other to serve as one of the sport’s best closers going forward.

Looking at the potential suitors, the Phillies and Reds make a ton of sense as teams that could desperately use reinforcements in the bullpen. Philadelphia’s gamble on Jordan Romano this past winter hasn’t worked out, and a PED suspension for Jose Alvarado means that he’ll not only miss half the year but be ineligible to pitch in the postseason for the Phillies this year. That leaves the club in desperate need of the sort of lockdown relief arm they lost when they allowed both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez to walk in free agency last year. As for the Reds, Cincinnati’s closer Alexis Diaz was torched to a 12.00 ERA in six outings before being optioned to Triple-A and eventually traded to Los Angeles, where he’s continued to struggle.

The Cubs and Tigers have less glaring needs at the back of their bullpen, but both figure to be very aggressive this summer as they currently sit positioned for a bye through the first round of the playoffs. Adding a dominant closer at the deadline can be a way to push a good team over the edge and make them favorites in the postseason, and while incumbent closers Daniel Palencia and Will Vest are impressive relievers it’s not hard to see why Chicago or Detroit would want a more proven option in the ninth for a playoff run. As for the Dodgers, the club’s splashy additions of Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates to the back of their bullpen have looked a bit shakier than anticipated, and given how aggressively L.A. prioritized adding relief help in the winter it’s understandable they would continue to do so this summer with both of their star additions sporting ERAs approaching 4.00.

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