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Three Needs: Philadelphia Phillies

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Click to read entries on the Braves, Tigers, Reds, Pirates, Giants, Mets, Blue Jays, Athletics and White Sox.

It’s been another tough year on the field for the Phillies, and though the team looks to have added some very notable building blocks in their rebuild, there are still plenty of holes to fill.  The Phils won’t be making a push to contend until 2019 at the earliest, so this winter will likely look much the same as last — adding veterans on short-term deals with an eye towards flipping those players at the trade deadline.  Here are a few needs that will be at the top of the Phillies’ list this offseason…

1. Add starting pitching.  Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff are penciled into next year’s rotation, and Vince Velasquez will get first dibs on a spot if healthy.  A variety of young arms (Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin) could be in the mix for the fifth starter’s job or as rotation depth, particularly given Velasquez’s multiple injury issues.

That leaves room for at least one or possibly two veteran starters to join the starting staff.  The Phillies obviously won’t be shopping at the top of the free agent market, instead targeting mid-range starters that could be had on a one-year deal.  Such pitchers could also be pursued in trades, akin to how the Phillies acquired Clay Buchholz from the Red Sox last offseason in the hopes that he would stay healthy and add rotation stability.  Citizens Bank Park isn’t the most pitcher-friendly environment for a hurler looking to perhaps rebuild his value for a more lucrative contract in the 2018-19 offseason, though the Phillies can certainly offer innings and opportunity.

2. Use short-term payroll space on both young and old talent.  The Phillies have less than $7MM on the books for 2018, so there’s plenty of room for creativity with so much payroll space to work with.  Some of that money will be spent on veterans added in signings or trades, though for the latter, the Phillies have the flexibility to take on quite a bit of money.

For instance, GM Matt Klentak could approach a team burdened by a pricey contract and offer to take that deal off the rival club’s hands, as long as a promising young player was also included in the trade.  This “buy a prospect” strategy would likely only be deployed in order to take on a starter or reliever’s bad contract since the Phillies are pretty set around the diamond in terms of players who have either earned everyday jobs or players the team wants to see more of — it would make little sense to block Nick Williams from regular duty by acquiring a pricey outfielder, for instance.

The exception to this would be if the Phils were to acquire a bigger-name talent who offered enough years of control that he could be part of the next contending Philadelphia team.  Last summer, the Phillies expressed interest in the Marlins’ Christian Yelich (who is under contract through 2021 with a club option for 2022) and were also reportedly open to eating some of the Marlins’ other bad contracts in order to make a Yelich deal happen.  If the Phillies were to make such a deal for Yelich or a similar player, you could see someone like Williams moved as part of the trade package.

The argument could be made that the Phillies could go after a big-ticket free agent this winter as sort of a harbinger of larger spending, akin to how the Nationals’ signing of Jayson Werth in the 2010-11 offseason served as an announcement that the team was looking ahead to being a contender in the near future.  Since it has been largely rumored that the Phils will be players in the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class, I’d argue that any “coming attractions” signing Philadelphia might make will come next offseason rather than this winter, since there are still too many question marks for the team (or a free agent looking to win) to assume that a guaranteed contender in 2019.

3. Identify and extend some cornerstone players.  Odubel Herrera was signed to a five-year extension last winter that will keep him in Philly until at least 2021, making him the first player clearly marked as a key part of the team’s future plans.  Herrera was signed when he was a season away from becoming eligible for salary arbitration, which is the same situation that Nola and Aaron Altherr are in this winter.

The situations aren’t identical, of course, though there’s reason that signing an extension would make sense for Nola and Altherr at this junction.  Altherr, who turns 27 in January and only rose to prominence as a prospect within the last couple of years, would likely to be open to his first big payday.  Nola already made his first fortune in the sport when he collected a $3.3MM bonus as the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, though since he already went through a UCL/flexor scare last year, Nola might also be eager to lock down some guaranteed money early in his career.

Cesar Hernandez is arb-eligible for the first time last winter, and he has three more trips through the arbitration process coming due to his Super Two status.  He’s due for a nice raise on his $2.55MM salary in 2017, and the Phillies could gain cost certainty on the second baseman via an extension.  On the flip side, Hernandez could also be a potential trade chip, with the Phillies using Freddy Galvis and, eventually, prospect Scott Kingery at second.  With Maikel Franco coming off a brutal year and top prospect J.P. Crawford coming off a pair of underwhelming minor league seasons, however, the Phillies might not want to lose Hernandez with that much uncertainty on the left side of the infield.  The team isn’t in any rush to make a decision either way, and the best course could be to just give Hernandez his arb raise and then see how things develop with their other infielders.

Twins To Sign Venezuelan Prospect Carlos Aguiar

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The Twins have agreed to a deal with Venezuelan outfielder Carlos Aguiar, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.  The contract contains a $1MM bonus.

Aguiar wasn’t eligible to be signed until his 16th birthday, which took place on August 28.  “Several late suitors” besides the Twins were also vying for Aguiar’s services, Berardino writes, though Aguiar had been linked to Minnesota since well before the 2017-18 international signing period opened on July 2.

Aguiar ranked 30th on Baseball America’s list of the top 50 (non-Cuban) prospects in the 2017-18 international class.  A left-handed hitter, Aguiar is already 6’3″ and 190 pounds at his young age.

The Twins already made one big splash in this year’s int’l market with their $3MM signing of Dominican shortstop Jelfry Marte, one of the priciest bonuses handed out to any player in this year’s class.  Minnesota entered July 2 with a total bonus pool of $5.25MM and acquired another $500K in international spending money from the Nationals as part of the Brandon Kintzler trade.  $4.3MM of that $5.75MM total has been accounted for between the bonuses for Marte, Aguiar and Dominican outfielder Luis Baez, who signed for $300K.

Berardino also reports that Mauro Bonifacio, a Dominican outfielder long linked to the Twins, has been drawing attention from other teams and now won’t be signing with Minnesota.

NL East Notes: Kelley, Ausmus, Mets, Teheran, Braves

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Shawn Kelley left during the eighth inning of last night’s Nationals game due to an arm injury that left him with a badly-swollen right hand.  “Just on that last pitch I felt something go down through my arm and my hand swelled up a bit,” Kelley told media, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.  “I just didn’t feel like I could pitch another pitch honestly. I couldn’t really grip the ball. I motioned for somebody to come out because I knew it wasn’t good.”  Kelley will meet with doctors today to evaluate the problem, which is particularly ominous given that Kelley has twice undergone Tommy John surgery.  The veteran right-hander has had two separate DL stints due to a bad back and a trap strain, and these injury issues have very likely impacted Kelley’s subpar performance.  Kelley has a 7.27 ERA over 26 innings this season, with huge spikes in his homer rate and hard-hit ball rate.  As Janes notes, Kelley may not have made the Nats’ playoff roster even if healthy, though the team will have one less bullpen option to choose from if Kelley is indeed hurt.

Here’s more from around the NL East…

  • Brad Ausmus won’t be returning as the Tigers’ manager next year, though Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reports that some in the Mets front office are interested in speaking with Ausmus.  New York has also been rumored to be making a managerial change, and will likely look into several different candidates if it does indeed move on from the Terry Collins era.  It’s also possible that the Mets’ interest in Ausmus may not necessarily involve managing; Ausmus also worked as a special assistant in the Padres’ baseball ops department before taking the Tigers job.
  • Also from Gammons’ piece, he expects the Braves to be listening to offers for Julio Teheran during the GM Meetings in November.  Teheran drew some trade buzz this past summer, with Atlanta reportedly holding onto Teheran since it was unable to land another top-tier arm to replace the right-hander as the rotation’s ace.  Teheran has struggled to a 4.52 ERA over 175 1/3 IP this season, though that inflated number has been due to a lack of success at SunTrust Park — Teheran has a 6.23 ERA at home this season and a 2.84 ERA on the road.  While Teheran’s swinging-strike and contact rates have also gone in the wrong direction, between his controllable contract and the idea that he would rebound in another ballpark, the Braves would certainly garner quite a bit of interest in trade talks.
  • Braves CEO and chairman Terry McGuirk told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman and other media that the team won’t make any management decisions until after the season is over, though McGuirk did praise manager Brian Snitker and president of baseball operations John Hart.  McGuirk expects Hart, whose deal is up after the season, to return in 2018.  The Braves hold a club option on Snitker’s services for next year, though there has been speculation that the team could be exploring a change in the dugout, with FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman hearing from a source that the Braves are currently “leaning toward” hiring a new manager.  Snitker will meet with the front office to learn about his future, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that this meeting could take place as soon as today.

Ned Yost Says He’ll Stay With Royals For 2018

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Royals skipper Ned Yost stamped out any doubt that may have arisen as to his status for 2018, telling reporters including MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that he is going to return.

Yost’s deal runs through next year, so the news isn’t much of a surprise. But from the outside, at least, there was perhaps at least some cause to wonder whether the 63-year-old would desire to keep grinding. Kansas City is going to miss the postseason for the second consecutive year, after all, and will see several core players hit the open market at season’s end.

No matter to Yost, who says he’s well-positioned to “take the flack” for overseeing a roster transition that could come with some frustrations. He seems inclined to take things one year at a time moving forward, but also didn’t exactly commit to retiring at the end of his current contract.

“Am I going to see this thing through? No. But I want to get a firm footing and firm foundation on the ground so someone else … in two years, whatever it is …[can step in] and get back to where we feel we can compete again.”

While the team could always decide to go with another manager, that seems quite unlikely. Yost took over the Royals’ dugout in the middle of a dreadful 2010 season, then oversaw two more losing campaigns while the organization transitioned. But Kansas City went on to reel off three consecutive winning seasons from that point, culminating in a 2015 World Series title.

The K.C. skipper signed his most recent deal after that moment of glory, marking the latest in a string of short-term extensions that have kept him on board for eight seasons thus far. Overall, Yost has led the team to a 624-628 record. While it’s hard to know just what the roster will look like next year, it seems as if the Royals will have a familiar hand writing out the lineup cards and guiding the ship.

MLB Weekly Roster Roundup: Hamilton, Renfroe, Wainwright

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM (9/18-9/22)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • CHICAGO CUBS | Depth Chart
      • Back In Action: SP Jake Arrieta (hamstring) made his first start in 17 days on Thursday (5 IP, ER, 5 H, BB, 2 K)
  • MIAMI MARLINS | Depth Chart
    • Activated from DL: P Chris O’Grady
      • O’Grady is pitching out of the bullpen (IP, 0 R on Wednesday) after starting six games prior to his injury.

—

AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • BALTIMORE ORIOLES | Depth Chart  
    • Injuries: RP Zach Britton (knee discomfort) is expected to miss the remainder of the season. Brad Brach is the team’s closer with Britton out of action.
  • DETROIT TIGERS | Depth Chart
      • Back In Action: SP Jordan Zimmermann (neck) made his first start in 19 days on Thursday (4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, BB, 4 K)
  • HOUSTON ASTROS | Depth Chart
      • Back In Action: SP Lance McCullers (arm fatigue) will make his first start in 18 days on Sunday.

 

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

 

Prospective Marlins Owners To Fire Four Special Assistants

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In an evident bid for a fresh start, the prospective Marlins ownership group has notified a series of high-profile special assistants that they will not be retained once the sale is completed, according to an eye-opening report from Barry Jackson and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Specifically, the Marlins will no longer employ former manager Jack McKeon, notable player Jeff Conine, and Hall of Famers Andre Dawson and Tony Perez.

The move may not have dramatic implications for the day-to-day operations of the team, as these four prominent baseball men were not among the core leadership. But they all have deep roots with the organization and did provide notable contributions. Many teams retain such respected figures on similar arrangements.

In this case, salary details are not known. The move seems to represent yet another sign that the new ownership group will be looking to make some significant reductions in operating expenses. Just how that’ll translate into an offseason roster strategy isn’t yet known, but it seems more and more likely that the Miami organization will try to sell some veteran assets than that it will look to add MLB talent around its current core.

The move to cut out such prominent figures seemingly suggests, too, that not much will be seen as sacred when Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman take charge. That may well extend to current players and will no doubt apply to front-office employees. Some baseball operations personnel will likely be sent packing, per the report, though it’s not clear just who or when.

The way that this move went down has sparked a bit of controversy, too. Jeter is said to have asked outgoing president David Samson to deliver the news rather than doing so himself — after informing Samson that he would not be a part of the organization (as was already widely expected). Needless to say, it’s an interesting opening salvo for Jeter and co.

Latest On Mets’ Plans For Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins

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The Mets will attempt to work out a new contract with general manager Sandy Alderson to keep him for 2018 and (presumably) beyond, according to a report from Kristie Ackert. The fate of manager Terry Collins, though, is less clear — with signs suggesting it’s not expected he’ll be back.

Contracts for both organizational leaders are up at the end of the year. The pair has been in charge since the start of the 2011 campaign, overseeing a rise and then sudden collapse in the team’s competitiveness. While the hope remains that the roster will spring back to life in 2018, it seems that Alderson will be looking for a new manager to lead the troops.

Alderson himself declined to comment on the managerial situation. But Ackert cites team sources that suggest there’s an internal expectation that Collins will retire. Per the report, the Mets have already begun thinking of alternatives to the veteran skipper — Ackert runs through a few notable names at the link — even if Collins himself may not quite be ready to hang ’em up on his own volition.

Many have speculated that 2017 could be the last run for Collins, who is 68 years of age, though few saw the season going the way it has. The Mets went to the World Series in 2015 and overcame challenges to reach the postseason last year as well. But a series of devastating injuries robbed the 2017 team of any hopes of repeating.

There’s no reasonable way that Collins could have reversed that course by himself, though (like all managers) he has had his share of detractors over the years. The organization may well prefer an alternative, though, regardless of Collins’s own intentions. Ackert says that the club would like to find a newcomer that is “more technologically savvy and more fluent in analytics and sabermetrics.”

While the Mets will no doubt focus in on this important decision, it’s just one of many facing the organization. Soon after the end of the season, decisions are due on Asdrubal Cabrera and Jerry Blevins. The Mets have a lot of payroll space but also quite a few roster needs — along with a long list of medical unknowns in the rotation.

Tigers Will Not Retain Brad Ausmus

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The Tigers and Brad Ausmus will part ways after the end of the current season, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports on Twitter that the club won’t extend his contract. Ausmus, 48, has been at the helm of the Detroit dugout for the last four seasons.

Detroit had exercised a club option to retain Ausmus for the current campaign. But it did not further address his contract situation last winter, leaving the skipper facing an uncertain future. Now, his tenure will end as the ballclub itself faces its own uncertainty as it carries out a rebuilding effort.

GM Al Avila says he’s looking for a “new approach and a fresh start” in that leadership role (via ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, on Twitter). It’s not yet known, though, just what candidates the club will consider. The Tigers will have a head start on the rest of the managerial market, though, as they are the first organization to announce a chance.

Ausmus, a long-time big league catcher, was hired when the organization was pushing hard to contend. The Tigers won ninety games in his first year at the helm, but were swept out of the postseason and haven’t made it back since. Then-GM Dave Dombrowski was cut loose in the midst of a disappointing 2015 season, giving way to Avila. Detroit managed 86 wins last year, but the outlook wasn’t all that optimistic heading into the current campaign and the club has staggered to a 62-91 record to this point.

Notable change has come at many levels of the Tigers organization of late. That includes player turnover, of course, with J.D. Martinez and longtime star Justin Verlander departing via trade over the summer. Long-time owner Mike Ilitch passed away in February, leaving the team to his son, Chris. Of course, there’s also continuity in that transition; the younger Ilitch says his family plans to continue to own the ballclub for a long time to come (via MLB.com’s Jason Beck, on Twitter).

Three Needs: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox have made a staggering amount of progress on the rebuild of their franchise in less than a year’s time. It’s almost incredible to think that last year, when doing a “Three Needs” look at the Sox, one need that Tim Dierkes listed was to make a decision on whether they should embark on a fire sale or take one more shot with a group led by Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, David Robertson, Carlos Rodon, Tim Anderson and Todd Frazier.

The Sox have traded almost everything that isn’t nailed down over the past year, bringing in high-profile talent like Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Kopech, Eloy Jimenez, Blake Rutherford and roughly a dozen other prospects of varying levels of upside. Certainly, though, there’s still work for the team to do. We’ll take a longer look at their offseason in next month’s Offseason Outlook series, but here’s a higher-level overview of the Sox’ remaining needs.

1. Make a decision on Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia.

Abreu has been one of the best hitters in the American League over his four Major League campaigns, and he’s enjoying his best year since his rookie season in 2017. Thus far, he’s hitting .303/.356/.549 with 31 homers and a career-low 17.5 percent strikeout rate. His 40.1 percent hard-hit rate is easily a career-high, while his 6.9 percent infield-fly rate is the lowest of his career. Abreu is due a raise on this year’s $10.8MM salary, and he’s controllable only through 2019, so the end of his contract will coincide with the arrival of much of the team’s young talent.

Jose Abreu | Matt Marton-USA TODAY SportsGarcia, 26, is in somewhat of a similar position (which is not something that anyone really expected to be the case this time last year). While his deeper track record is unsightly, the right fielder/designated hitter has long been seen as having a healthy offensive ceiling, and this year he’s come through and delivered on that hype. In 524 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.382/.502 with new career-bests in home runs (17), doubles (23), triples (four) and strikeout rate (19.8 percent). There’s no way Garcia can sustain a .396 BABIP, and his exit velocity is actually down from the 2016 season, but some of the strides he’s made appear legitimate. Like Abreu, though, he’s controlled only through 2019 and could be viewed by the organization as either an extension or a trade candidate.

The White Sox don’t technically have to make a call on either this winter, but the more time that goes by, the less team control they can shop to interested suitors and the closer each gets to free agency (thus reducing some of Chicago’s leverage in talks). Chicago also doesn’t have much else in the way of marketable veteran pieces to shop this winter, making a trade of at least one of the two the most realistic avenue to accruing more prospect capital. Garcia’s breakout has some potential red flags, but his price tag is lower than that of Abreu and he’s four years younger.

2. Add some veteran arms to support/mentor the kids (and to flip in summer trades).

White Sox fans can dream on a rotation consisting of Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Carlos Rodon as soon as late 2018 or early 2019, but there are a lot of innings to be covered while Kopech finishes his development in Triple-A and the team monitors the workloads of the other three (Giolito and Lopez due to youth, Rodon due to 2017 injuries and durability concerns). Adding Derek Holland for the 2017 season may not have netted a trade piece for the Sox — Holland was released in August after struggling for most of the season — but he soaked up plenty of innings for an inexperienced staff.

Grabbing at least one veteran, if not two, to step into a similar role next season would be prudent. There should be no shortage of names available for the Sox to pursue, with hurlers such as Jeremy Hellickson, Scott Feldman, Tyson Ross, Anibal Sanchez and old friend Hector Santiago among the free agents likely looking at one-year rebound scenarios. Pitching coach Don Cooper’s reputation will likely be a point in the team’s favor in luring such veterans, as will be an easier promise to guaranteed innings than most contending clubs would be willing to offer.

Also on the docket, of course, should be a veteran reliever or two. Just as the Sox can offer guaranteed innings to rebound candidates, the team can also offer high-leverage roles to relievers looking for rebound seasons. Huston Street, Tyler Clippard, Fernando Salas and Neftali Feliz are among the bounceback candidates on the free-agent bullpen market.

3. Take advantage of a nearly blank payroll slate.

The fact that the Sox don’t have much in the way of marketable veterans to pitch to other teams doesn’t mean that they simply can’t acquire further talent this offseason. The White Sox only have about $15MM committed to next year’s payroll: the $10MM portion of James Shields’ salary they must pay, $3.95MM for Nate Jones and $1MM for Tim Anderson. Beyond that, the only notable arbitration raises they’ll face belong to Abreu, Rodon and Yolmer Sanchez. As it stands, the White Sox could easily field a team for under $40MM in player salaries next season, though they’ll surely spend more to fill out the roster and invest in some potential trade chips.

But, the Sox are also extremely well positioned to take on some or all of a veteran player’s contract in order to persuade a rival club to part with some meaningful young talent. When teams like the Braves (Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis), Diamondbacks (Yasmany Tomas), Yankees (Jacoby Ellsbury), Marlins (Wei-Yin Chen) and others are looking to shed some unfavorable contracts, the White Sox will no doubt be involved in exploring scenarios that allow them effectively to purchase the rights to prospects — while also filling out the MLB roster with players that can perhaps be flipped again later, as occurred with Clippard this summer.

As recently as 2016, the White Sox opened the year with a near-$115MM payroll, and they opened with payrolls north of $118MM in 2015 and 2013 as well. The team can afford to spend — especially on players with only a year or two remaining on their contracts — and taking on those burdensome commitments could allow them to pry another few prospects away from rival clubs. As a bonus, the lack of veteran commitments on the current White Sox roster should also allow the Pale Hose to nab at least one player (if not multiple players) in this year’s Rule 5 Draft.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Goldschmidt, Cozart, Snitker, Panik

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There are “hints” that the D-backs plan to try locking up MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt to a longer-term deal, writes Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports in his latest NL Notes column. However, the team’s below-average revenues (in part due to the league’s lowest ticket prices) could make it difficult. Goldschmidt will earn $11MM in 2018 and has an easy-call $14.5MM club option ($2MM buyout) for the 2019 campaign on his contract as well. He’ll turn 32 years old at the end of that 2019 campaign, though he’s shown no signs of slowing down to this point in his career; Goldschmidt is hitting .305/.410/.576 with 35 homers and 18 steals in what has been a roughly 6-WAR season thus far. Of course, any long-term deal with Goldschmidt would have to be able to mesh with Zack Greinke’s considerable contract and could also impact the team’s ability to re-sign slugger J.D. Martinez.

Elsewhere in the National League…

  • Heyman also reports that the Reds may try to retain Zack Cozart in 2018 and beyond after holding onto him in July and August. Per Heyman, the Reds set an extremely high asking price on Cozart, asking the Orioles at one point for top outfield prospect Austin Hays in return. That’s a steep ask for a Cozart rental, considering Hays broke out with a .329/.365/.593 slash and 32 homers in 128 games between Double-A and Triple-A this season before making his MLB debut in September.
  • The Braves are still weighing whether to retain manager Brian Snitker beyond the 2017 season, as Heyman notes in his column and as Ken Rosenthal details at greater length for The Athletic (subscription required and strongly recommended). Per Rosenthal, the Braves don’t need to make a decision on Snitker’s 2018 option until five days after the World Series, so they still have some time to mull things over. Snitker tells Rosenthal that he’d like to continue managing for “a while,” though he says he’s not sweating the decision as it’s largely out of his control. Heyman cites a source in reporting that Atlanta is “leaning toward” making a change, though nothing’s been set in stone yet, and it’s possibly that Snitker’s option is simply exercised without any extension being issued. Rosenthal, meanwhile, takes a deeper dive into some of the reported tensions in the Braves organization and how they impact the managerial decision.
  • Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News wonders whether Giants second baseman Joe Panik is part of the team’s future or will instead be an offseason trade chip. Panik, Baggarly reasons, is one of the Giants’ most desirable big league pieces given his lack of a long-term contract and the fact that he’s only just reaching arbitration eligibility. However, the Giants also didn’t see Christian Arroyo take the step forward that they hoped, making it perhaps tougher to deal from their more proven infield depth. Giants fans and those interested in the offseason trade market are encouraged to check out Baggarly’s well-reasoned take on the situation in full.

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